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Economics of nuclear and conventional merchant ships
Nuclear Physics 14 (1959/60) 696--697; (~) North.Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam
BOOK REVIEWS D. L. CONKLIN et al., Economics o] Nuclear and Conventional Merchant ships (U. S. G o v e r n m e n t P r i n t i n g Office, W a s h i n g t o n 25, D.C.xi--869 p. $ 4.50) This report was prepared b y American Standard, Atomic E n e r g y Division, at the request of U.S. Atomic E n e r g y Commission, Maritime Reactors B r a n c h (Contract No. AT (04-3)-109, Directive G). Undoubtedly, it represents t h e m o s t extensive investigation of t h e subject published up till now. A b o u t 50 industrial concerns, shipowners, and institutions h a v e taken p a r t in t h e investigation. Five principal t y p e s of ships h a v e been e x a m i n e d (cargo liners, tankers, ore carriers, cargopassenger liners a n d passenger liners) and within each type, t h e size a n d speed h a v e been varied so t h a t it has been possible to e x a m i n e a total of 72 different ships, each w i t h the following 5 different propelling machineries: conventional steam-turbine, pressurized-water reactor, boiling-water reactor, organic-moderated reactor a n d gas-cooled reactor. For each of these 360 combinations of ship a n d machinery, t h e costs of construction a n d operation h a v e been calculated for 1957, 1965 a n d 1970, a n d 5 round trips of various lengths, various coefficients of utilization of t h e cargo capacity etc. h a v e been considered. The final a m o u n t of combinations is about 30 000. A detailed e x a m i n a t i o n of t h e four reactor s y s t e m s mentioned takes up almost one half of t h e report. W i t h i n each of t h e m has been developed a "reactor family" which, from an economic aspect, formed t h e basis for selection of t h e o p t i m u m construction. These sections especially contain m a n y details of great value for the estimation of how the price a n d weight of a reactor plant are composed, how an alteration of t h e p a r a m e t e r s will influence the construction and operation costs, etc. However, a considerable unreliability of the data, even those stated to be valid for the year 1957, should be taken into account. L e t us give some examples. The insurance p r e m i u m of nuclear ships are e s t i m a t e d a t a rate 60 to 100 ~o higher t h a n t h a t of conventional ships: such a rate is bound to be a chance e s t i m a t e owing to the fact t h a t t h e insurance problems are completely unsettled. T h e shielding, which a m o u n t s to essentially more t h a n 50. ~o of the weight of t h e reactor plant, presents a n o t h e r material unreliability. Apparently, no optimalization calculations h a v e been m a d e for this item, a n d for a specific p l a n t the s a m e shielding dimensions h a v e been used, e.g., for tankers and passenger liners. Moreover, t h e directives stated for t h e PW1R-plant do n o t seem to h a v e been followed in t h e N/S S a v a n n a h project. The core geometry originally suggested for this vessel corresponds to g e o m e t r y 'A', in the s t u d y of which the total costs per d a y are stated to be 10 ~/o lower t h a n for g e o m e t r y 'B'. Yet, it is t h e latter which is being constructed. However, other aspects t h a n economy m a y h a v e caused this change. T h e a i m of these sporadic r e m a r k s is to emphasize t h a t t h e conclusions stated in t h e book a n d so often quoted during the last few m o n t h s seem r a t h e r hazardous. This applies particularly to the a s s u m p t i o n s m a d e for 1965 and 1970 for plants which are not a t all developed to such a degree t h a t t h e y could be installed ill a ship. For instance it has been stated t h a t " T h e m o s t a t t r a c t i v e s y s t e m for nuclear ships in the i m m e d i a t e future is the boiling-water reactor, a n d t h e m o s t a t t r a c t i v e s y s t e m for t h e near future is t h e organic-moderated reactor". On closer e x a m i n a tion, it appears t h a t t h e figures which h a v e led to this conclusion are those included in the tables I - - X V I I I . Now, one sees that, i n d e p e n d e n t l y of t h e combination of tile trade route distance, speed a n d ship considered, t h e differences in cost per ton of cargo b y using reactor plants of t h e t y p e s P W R , B W R , and OMR generally t u r n o u t to be less t h a n 1 ~/o a n d never exceed 2 ~/oThis a n d m a n y other results of t h e investigation are in themselves so interesting t h a t t h e y should n o t be overshadowed b y general and doubtful conclusions. N.K. 696
BOOK REVIEWS D. L. CONKLIN et al., Economics o] Nuclear and Conventional Merchant ships (U. S. G o v e r n m e n t P r i n t i n g Office, W a s h i n g t o n 25, D.C.xi--869 p. $ 4.50) This report was prepared b y American Standard, Atomic E n e r g y Division, at the request of U.S. Atomic E n e r g y Commission, Maritime Reactors B r a n c h (Contract No. AT (04-3)-109, Directive G). Undoubtedly, it represents t h e m o s t extensive investigation of t h e subject published up till now. A b o u t 50 industrial concerns, shipowners, and institutions h a v e taken p a r t in t h e investigation. Five principal t y p e s of ships h a v e been e x a m i n e d (cargo liners, tankers, ore carriers, cargopassenger liners a n d passenger liners) and within each type, t h e size a n d speed h a v e been varied so t h a t it has been possible to e x a m i n e a total of 72 different ships, each w i t h the following 5 different propelling machineries: conventional steam-turbine, pressurized-water reactor, boiling-water reactor, organic-moderated reactor a n d gas-cooled reactor. For each of these 360 combinations of ship a n d machinery, t h e costs of construction a n d operation h a v e been calculated for 1957, 1965 a n d 1970, a n d 5 round trips of various lengths, various coefficients of utilization of t h e cargo capacity etc. h a v e been considered. The final a m o u n t of combinations is about 30 000. A detailed e x a m i n a t i o n of t h e four reactor s y s t e m s mentioned takes up almost one half of t h e report. W i t h i n each of t h e m has been developed a "reactor family" which, from an economic aspect, formed t h e basis for selection of t h e o p t i m u m construction. These sections especially contain m a n y details of great value for the estimation of how the price a n d weight of a reactor plant are composed, how an alteration of t h e p a r a m e t e r s will influence the construction and operation costs, etc. However, a considerable unreliability of the data, even those stated to be valid for the year 1957, should be taken into account. L e t us give some examples. The insurance p r e m i u m of nuclear ships are e s t i m a t e d a t a rate 60 to 100 ~o higher t h a n t h a t of conventional ships: such a rate is bound to be a chance e s t i m a t e owing to the fact t h a t t h e insurance problems are completely unsettled. T h e shielding, which a m o u n t s to essentially more t h a n 50. ~o of the weight of t h e reactor plant, presents a n o t h e r material unreliability. Apparently, no optimalization calculations h a v e been m a d e for this item, a n d for a specific p l a n t the s a m e shielding dimensions h a v e been used, e.g., for tankers and passenger liners. Moreover, t h e directives stated for t h e PW1R-plant do n o t seem to h a v e been followed in t h e N/S S a v a n n a h project. The core geometry originally suggested for this vessel corresponds to g e o m e t r y 'A', in the s t u d y of which the total costs per d a y are stated to be 10 ~/o lower t h a n for g e o m e t r y 'B'. Yet, it is t h e latter which is being constructed. However, other aspects t h a n economy m a y h a v e caused this change. T h e a i m of these sporadic r e m a r k s is to emphasize t h a t t h e conclusions stated in t h e book a n d so often quoted during the last few m o n t h s seem r a t h e r hazardous. This applies particularly to the a s s u m p t i o n s m a d e for 1965 and 1970 for plants which are not a t all developed to such a degree t h a t t h e y could be installed ill a ship. For instance it has been stated t h a t " T h e m o s t a t t r a c t i v e s y s t e m for nuclear ships in the i m m e d i a t e future is the boiling-water reactor, a n d t h e m o s t a t t r a c t i v e s y s t e m for t h e near future is t h e organic-moderated reactor". On closer e x a m i n a tion, it appears t h a t t h e figures which h a v e led to this conclusion are those included in the tables I - - X V I I I . Now, one sees that, i n d e p e n d e n t l y of t h e combination of tile trade route distance, speed a n d ship considered, t h e differences in cost per ton of cargo b y using reactor plants of t h e t y p e s P W R , B W R , and OMR generally t u r n o u t to be less t h a n 1 ~/o a n d never exceed 2 ~/oThis a n d m a n y other results of t h e investigation are in themselves so interesting t h a t t h e y should n o t be overshadowed b y general and doubtful conclusions. N.K. 696