Employment dynamics in the Italian telecommunications industry

Telecommunications Policy 25 (2001) 565–585

Employment dynamics in the Italian telecommunications industry Paola Garrone, Francesca Sgobbi* Dipartimento di Economia e Produzione, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano, Italy

Abstract Important quantitative and qualitative changes are affecting employment in the telecommunications manufacturing and services industry worldwide, namely the selective downsizing of employment stocks, the reshaping of job contents and employment composition, and the adoption of innovative labour practices. By resorting to micro-data from the archives of the Italian Institute for Social Security, the paper outlines employment dynamics in the Italian telecommunications industry between 1986 and 1995. Most notable changes detected for public telecommunications operators include the acceleration of inter-companies labour flows and the development of an external labour market for higher skilled employees. However, personnel policies to protect the holders of less tradable skills still exist. r 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Employment dynamics; Telecommunications industry; Internal labour market

1. Introduction and background The paper deals with particular issues that have arisen from ongoing changes in the telecommunications (TLCs) sector: their impact on employment in incumbent and new public telecommunication operators (PTOs). Our attention focuses on two issues which have been increasingly affecting the PTOs’ labour force: the evolution of employment composition and the rise of external labour markets for PTOs’ employees. The growing number of countries where TLC’s services shifted from a monopolistic regime to more or less regulated forms of competition has generated an extended debate on the effectiveness of different regulatory regimes for the development of efficient models of competition. However, as liberalisation processes reveal their effects, the debate on new market structures is increasingly accompanied by concerns about their occupational consequences. *Corresponding author. Tel.: +39-02-2399-2741; fax: +39-02-2399-2710. E-mail address: [email protected] (F. Sgobbi). 0308-5961/01/$ - see front matter r 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. PII: S 0 3 0 8 - 5 9 6 1 ( 0 1 ) 0 0 0 3 1 - 3

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The experience of those countries that earlier introduced competition in TLCs has shown how liberalisation intimately intertwines with technological change. The convergence between information and communication technologies is blurring the traditional boundaries between the TLC industry, the information industry, and the broadcasting industry. As a consequence, new potential markets are opening for companies traditionally operating in TLCs, namely PTOs, suppliers of value added services, equipment manufacturers (EMs), and installation engineering companies (IECs). However, the convergence of previously autonomous technological trajectories also favours the entry of media and computer firms in the TLC markets, increasing the competitive pressure generated by liberalisation and privatisation processes. In future, the prospective convergence of information-based industries will probably drive PTOs to adopt recruiting practices and personnel policies common to those of the whole Infocom sector. However, interpreting the long run effects of such dynamics requires a clear understanding of the early stages of the observed phenomenon. Accordingly, the paper aims at depicting the early occupational impact of ongoing changes in the Italian TLCs industry, with a special focus on PTOs. Recent institutional and technological changes are expected to produce three main (interconnected) effects on the PTOs’ labour force. First, incumbent operators are expected to downsize their employment stocks. In principle, the reduction of prices due to higher competitive pressure and the parallel offer of new products and services enabled by technological development is expected to enlarge TLCs markets1 and, consequently, the employment base in the sector (BIPE Conseil, 1997). However, in the short run the search for efficiency, supported by the availability of innovative labour-saving technologies, has been translating into dramatic employment downsizing by incumbent PTOs, only partially compensated by the entry of new competitors (see, e.g. OECD, 1995a, 1997). Moreover, most existing analyses locate the long run growth of the TLCs employment base at EMs and IECs rather than at PTOs (BIPE Conseil, 1997; Pontarollo, 1998). Second, technological and institutional changes are expected to urge the reshaping of job contents and employment composition at PTOs. Indeed, the occupational change at PTOs is not restricted to the quantitative aspect. The organisational restructuring needed to cope with the challenges posed by technological opportunities and market pressure is also affecting the distribution and the contents of professional profiles. On the one hand, rationalisation processes stimulate the outsourcing of non-core as well as core but routine activities (OECD, 1995a; Keefe and Batt, 1997). On the other hand, due to the introduction of national and international competition into previously protected markets, the traditionally pivotal role of technical functions is progressively accompanied by the increasingly strategic importance acquired by other organisational functions, such as sales and marketing. At the same time, the development and diffusion of the new information and communication technologies points out the need to update technicians and engineers’ competencies and capabilities.2 As new organisational roles emerge, 1 The central role played by the TLCs industry in the development of the Information Society supports a growing demand for TLCs services and, consequently, infrastructures (see, e.g. Katz, 1997; CEC, 2000). 2 The mismatch between competencies offered and supplied is often recognised as a source of delay for the development of those new products and services that should drive sector growth in terms of turnover and employment (for a recent review, see Colombo, Garrone, & Sgobbi, 1998).

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employees are asked to update their professional skills. Information and communication technologies promise to be the engine for a new wave of growth for the whole economy, and the TLC sector plays a major role in promoting and fostering the transition to the unfolding Information Society. Consequently, the adaptation of the employees’ competencies and capabilities becomes a key-factor to fully exploit the opportunities offered by the new competitive environment. This is particularly true for less pro-active countries, where exposure to international competition may lead to destruction of accumulated human capital: this may be particularly significant in a sector such as the TLCs industry, characterised by a high degree of path dependence.3 Third, organisational restructuring also promotes the adoption of innovative labour practices and human resource management systems by incumbents and new entrants. In particular, as competitive pressure grows, PTOs have been shifting from traditional resort to the internal labour market to mixed strategies based on both internal and external career paths. The concept of the internal labour market, introduced by Doeringer and Piore (1971), identifies employment enclaves characterised by limited exchanges with the wider (external) labour market, arising as a consequence of skills specificity supported by in-house training and custom and practice. ‘‘Traditional’’ monopolist PTOs offer typical examples of internal labour markets within a national labour market, since the required skills can only be developed by means of internal training. The training costs sustained by the PTO and the risk incurred by employees as they developed firm-specific skills (for which the PTO has acted as a monopsonistic buyer) originated the practice that traded higher wages, internal careers, and employment security against the employees’ commitment to specialisation. However, liberalisation processes question the status quo and weaken the cornerstones supporting the status quo. The entry of new operators offers PTOs’ employees alternative job opportunities. Meanwhile, the speed of business transformation makes in-house training an unviable option to build up the new competencies needed by both incumbents and new entrants. Accordingly, the external labour market becomes a compulsory reference in order to avoid skill shortages. In order to match the opportunities offered by the competitive environment and the potential constraints posed by human capital, careful and timely strategies are needed both at firm and national levels. However, the available data seem insufficient to support required decision processes. In most cases, the evidence offered by the literature on recent changes in the employment structure of the TLCs sector, reports employment stocks without specifying the composition of the labour force. Detailed data on the change of employment structure mainly exist for large PTOs. Yet, the analysis of employment stocks alone supplies no information about how surveyed changes were achieved. Moreover, globalisation and diversification processes limit the usefulness of traditional measures of productivity, such as mainlines per employee or personnel costs per employee, as proxies for the quality of the human capital employed (OECD, 1998, 1999). As PTOs pursue internationalisation processes, often relying on non-proprietary networks, reference to mainlines as proxies for capital input may be misleading. At the same time, as competition focuses on 3

According to Rosenberg (1994), ‘‘path-dependent processes are those phenomena whose outcomes can only be understood as part of a historical process’’. Path dependence marks the evolution of TLCs technology and organisation, because subsequent innovations have to comply with previously existing equipment and systems.

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services provision, differentiated personnel costs per employee at different PTOs may reflect the diversification of the PTOs’ offerings rather than different levels of efficiency. This paper attempts to solve some of the above-mentioned problems by resorting to a new data source, which allows analysis of the employment structure and dynamics in the Italian TLCs industry between 1986 and 1995. The data source is represented by the archives of INPS (the Italian Institute for Social Security), which registers the compulsory social allowances paid by private sector employers for their employees. The INPS database is the only Italian source that connects employees and employers’ data. In particular, data on the subsequent jobs taken by each employee are recorded, together with information on the employee’s qualification, age, and wage. As far as companies are concerned, the database offers cross-time information about their size, location, and activity branch. The INPS micro-data allowed the empirical investigation of two broad issues. 1. How did the composition of PTOs’ employment change over recent years? The issue has been addressed by exploring the evolution of the labour force in terms of employees’ professional profiles, age distribution, job tenure, and original sector. 2. Is it possible to outline the development of an external labour market for PTOs’ employees? The issue has been addressed by analysing the features of inward and outward labour flows between 1986 and 1995.4 The rest of the paper is organised as follows. Section 2 depicts the most significant features of the TLC sector in Italy during the years observed. The outlined framework drives the specification of the research issues. Section 3 presents the database that supported the empirical study, while Section 4 provides a cross-tabulation analysis, which outlines the major changes in the employment structure of the Italian TLCs between 1986 and 1995. Section 5 presents the results of statistical tests that support and validate our hypotheses about the ongoing changes of personnel policies at Italian PTOs. Section 6 summarises our main findings and offers some concluding remarks.

2. Recent changes in the Italian TLC sector and research issues The Italian situation between the mid-eighties and mid-nineties provides an excellent case for studying the matching between the PTOs’ employment structure and impacting institutional and technological change. During the observed decade the Italian TLC sector was characterised by an uneven and unstable structure. While EMs and IECs already operated in liberalised markets, the State-owned PTO still supplied fixed telephony services under monopolistic regime conditions. Yet, the latter actively began to pursue higher levels of efficiency driven by two intertwined circumstances: the chance to organise its supply market on a competitive basis and the expectation of the forthcoming privatisation (started in 1997) and market liberalisation (which took place in 1998). 4

Empirical analysis resorted to a sample of INPS data built up and maintained by R&P. Available data currently span the period from 1985 to 1996, but the first and the last year results were judged unsuitable for research purposes (see Section 3).

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Table 1 Technical change in telecommunications networksa

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Mobileb

Digitc

Fibred

n.a. n.a. 36,000 66,000 416,000 568,000 783,011 1,206,951 2,239,738 3,863,374 6,422,000 11,732,663

7 12 18 25 33 41 48 57 67 76 n.a. 94

0 0 192e 562e 932e 1302e 1698e 4425 5707 6520 7290 8113

a

Source: elaboration from OECD (1990, 1993, 1995b, 1997, 1998) and Pirelli Cavi. b Mobile: number of subscribers of a mobile network. c Digit: number of digitised main telephone lines as a percentage of the number of main lines. d Fibre: optical fibre kilometres in the long-distance network divided by the country area. e Single-mode optical fibre.

Moreover, the beginning of the nineties saw the liberalisation of mobile telephony services and the entry of new actors in this market segment.5 Meanwhile, the explosion of mobile communications and the implementation of digitised and optical fibre-based networks witnessed the dramatic rates experienced in the diffusion of the new information and communication technologies (Table 1). PTOs sustained the diffusion of innovative technologies through aggressive investment policies (Table 2), which allowed Italy to reduce the gap with its main competitors (Abeille and Brezzi, 1999). The percentage of revenues devoted by PTOs to investments was much higher in Italy between the mid-eighties and the beginning of the nineties, while after 1995 the Italian effort declined below the OECD average (OECD, 1997). Yet, national producers did not fully benefit from the growth of the market for communication equipment subsidised by PTOs (Table 3): the analysis of the Italian trade balance shows a steady worsening trend, which decreased during the economic slow down of 1992–1993, but soon revived afterwards (Table 4). Besides raising financial puzzles, the declining performance of the trade balance during the renewal of the national TLC infrastructures also casts doubts on the country’s capability to keep pace with forthcoming waves of technological innovation and to reap all the potential benefits associated with the globalisation experienced by the sector. Indeed, a larger reliance on imported technological goods may not only preclude the benefits generated by a fast-growing high value5

Two GSM licences were issued to Omnitel Pronto Italia and Telecom Italia Mobile in 1994. A third operator (Wind) was licensed in 1998, and a fourth one (Blue) in 1999.

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Table 2 PTOs’ investments in Italya

Million US $ As a percentage of revenues a

1986–1988

1989–1991

1992–1994

1995

1997

5531.68 39.99

8594.77 55.57

6143.00 38.00

3471.56 22.93

5558.43 23.28

Source: OECD (1990, 1993, 1995b, 1997, 1998).

Table 3 The Italian market for TLC equipmenta Growth rate

Mobile equipment Datac Fixed networks Cables Network engineering Switching Transmission Mobile networks Total

1995

1996

1997b

1998b

1995–1996

1996–1997

1997–1998

1172 381 1391 226 2389 1842 665 1099 9165

1510 451 1533 266 2592 1794 827 1654 10,627

1650 510 1660 310 2850 1950 930 2000 11,860

1750 540 1730 320 2900 2000 950 2070 12,260

28.84 18.37 10.21 17.70 8.50 2.61 24.36 50.50 15.95

9.27 13.08 8.28 16.54 9.95 8.70 12.45 20.92 11.60

6.06 5.88 4.22 3.23 1.75 2.56 2.15 3.50 3.37

a

Source: de Varda and Zaza (1998). Forecasts. c Data in billions ITL. b

Table 4 The Italian trade balance (exports–imports) for communication equipment (million US $)a Year

1985 1986 1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

Trade 26.800 45.300 83.100 382.300 332.740 521.603 657.533 430.523 110.548 893.476 984.903 862.421 balance a

Source: OECD (1990, 1993, 1995b, 1997, 1998).

added sector. It may also involve longer, as well as less effective, learning and implementation processes by both technology suppliers and users. In other words, the loss of competitiveness on the supply side may compromise the quality of the human capital employed in the sector (Garrone, Mariotti, & Sgobbi, 1998). The present paper claims that quantitative changes are not the major effect so far induced by the liberalisation process in Italy, rather two qualitative effects are rather taking place: *

professional profiles are changing in order to cope–as well as to anticipate–ongoing technological and institutional change;

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some signals suggest that the role of Telecom Italia as a traditional internal labour market is undergoing new challenges.

As for the first point, the recent history of the former monopolist PTO reveals its attempt to anticipate and cope with the challenges of liberalisation also by resorting to new personnel strategies. Telecom Italia was born in 1994, resulting from the merger of STET (the public holding controlling the monopolistic operators of local, intercontinental and satellite services) and ASST, in charge of installing and maintaining the long-distance network. The new PTO adopted a market-based divisional structure, reflecting the progressive diversification of its portfolio and an emphasis on company-client interfaces. The subsequent contracts agreed between the company and the confederal trade unions in 1988, 1992, and 1996 reveals how this organisational restructuring was accompanied by concurrent change in both professional profiles and job contents. The most striking data is the reduction of blue-collar jobs (which almost halved between 1988 and 1992) and the parallel growth of job grades for sales and marketing personnel. The capability to deal with software programmes is required for a growing number of positions, while computer literacy is now regarded as a must.6 The analysis of subsequent contracts also shows the attempt to cope with the ongoing changes by setting up participation schemes with the trade unions: the 1995 an integrative agreement involved the creation of company-union committees in the areas of quality, training, equal opportunities, and environmental issues. It also introduced alternative tools to deal with employment redundancies, namely incentives to voluntary leaving, inter- and intra-regional mobility, telework, the extension of part-time practices, and the franchising of Telecom Italia shops. The search for more flexible forms of employment clearly arises also from the 1996 contract, which eased the resort to temporary jobs, part-timing and telework. The 1996 contract also marks the introduction of new incentives to foster employees’ individual commitment to the company targets, such as productivity bonuses and capital sharing schemes. As for our second claim, the resort to the external labour market is emerging as a complementary tool to traditional labour practices based on internal training and career development. The external labour market becomes a viable alternative to internal training not only to meet temporary skill shortages, but also to fill critical positions associated with organisational restructuring. At the same time, the entry of new carriersFhungry for trained personnelFinduces competition for the acquisition of human capital, which forces the adoption of carefully designed incentive and involvement schemes. The above sketched framework reproduces a trend which can be traced in most industrialised countries.7 Should this trend persist, as most indicators suggest (OECD, 1995a; Katz, 1997), the prospective consequences for both employers and employees are substantial. For the former, the departure from the traditional internal market pattern involves a radical change of personnel management policies. For the latter, the professional framework is undergoing an equally radical 6 It is interesting to note that the 1988 contract located CAD operators no lower than the sixth level (out of the ten contemplated by the contract). By 1992, the lower assignment for a CAD operator had dropped to the ninth level, evidencing the switch of CAD competencies from distinctive capabilities to basic ones. 7 Some interesting case studies concerning the employment restructuring at large PTOs can be found in OECD (1995a) and Katz (1997).

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change: the rise of external labour markets promises new career opportunities, but also uncertainties and risks. Given the systemic nature of the issues at stake, efforts to support organisational change in PTOs should focus on employment dynamics occurring in the whole TLCs sector rather than at specific PTOs. In order to offer some preliminary evidence concerning the development of an external labour market for Italian PTOs, we examined a sample of TLCs employees extracted from a unique database, which allowed depiction of the evolution of employment dynamics between 1986 and 1995. The analysis of employment stocks and flows at PTOs has been complemented by analogous investigations for EMs and IECs. The choice is justified for several reasons. Whereas Italian EMs and IECs have been operating within competitive markets since the early eighties, they constitute a benchmark against which to measure the effects of the TLCs regulatory regime on the labour markets of PTOs. The comparison may also help to outline common trends due to the technological revolution, which involved the former as suppliers and the latter as users. Finally, by taking into account also EMs and IECs, we could compare intraTLCs sector employment flows (involving moves to and from PTOs, EMs, and IECs) against employment flows to or from other industries.

3. The data The chance to explore the evolution of the employment structure in the Italian TLCs industry is offered by the INPS administrative archives, which record the compulsory social allowances paid by employers for their employees.8 A relative advantage of the INPS data against survey data is their more objective nature, since they were collected for administrative purposes and have to comply with strictly predefined standards (Rapiti, 1997). Available information concerns both employers and employees. Information on employers comprises their geographical location, a three-digit code to classify their economic activity, the date of the company birth and (eventual) death, average monthly employment levels and average monthly wage bills. The last two pieces of information are detailed by professional qualification (white-collar, blue-collar, managers, and apprentices) and by type of contract (full-time and parttime jobs). Data on employees concern age and sex, the geographical location of the job, its gross wage, the number of worked days, the start and the end of the labour spell, the occupied position. The present research used a random sample extracted by R&P from the INPS archives.9 Data have been organised into a panel, which merges information on both employers and employees. The R&P panel currently spans the years from 1985 to 1996. However, data from the border years were not taken into account, due to their incompleteness. The identification of Italian employers in the TLCs industry was constructed on development of the empirical sample used in the present research from the R&P panel. The presence of a threedigit code to classify the employer’s economic activity allowed selection of a preliminary group of 8

About eleven million workers employed in the Italian private sector depend on INPS for social welfare. R&P sampled the INPS archive by extracting the records concerning workers born on 10 March, 10 June, 10 September, and 10 December. For a detailed description of the INPS data base and of the R&P panel see Contini and Rapiti (1994). 9

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Table 5 Employment in the companies sampled Total employment

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

EMs and IECs

163,397 165,464 169,328 174,703 181,824 179,522 179,181 182,998 185,391 186,104

PTOs

Employees

%

Employees

%

84,695 88,002 89,447 91,816 91,246 88,838 87,088 88,016 87,999 85,385

51.8 53.2 52.8 52.6 50.2 49.5 48.6 48.1 47.5 45.9

78,702 77,462 79,881 82,887 90,578 90,684 92,093 94,982 97,392 100,719

48.2 46.8 47.2 47.4 49.8 50.5 51.4 51.9 52.5 54.1

employers. However, the activity code reported by the R&P panel refers to the company’s economic activity at start up, which might subsequently change.10 Accordingly, resort was taken to business directories to allow data enrichment. Records concerning labour spells in the Italian TLCs sector were subsequently extracted from the R&P panel through the employer’s conventional code. The final company sample includes 245 employers: 14 PTOs and suppliers of value added services, 212 EMs, and 19 IECs.11 Accordingly, the employees’ panel comprises 3776 distinct individuals who, between 1986 and 1995, recorded at least one labour spell at one of the 245 selected TLCs companies. Annual employment stocks were calculated by considering all workers employed in December. Associations were calculated by considering all new labour spells involving a change of employer. Accordingly, separations include all labour spells truncated by the interruption of the labour relation with the current employer. Separations and associations were computed net of spurious changes, i.e. truncated and new labour spells corresponding to mergers, acquisitions, and formal changes of juridical status which did not involve actual job changes for the employees. Tables 5–7 summarise data on the sampled companies. Table 5 shows the dimensions of the empirical sample and highlights the balanced distribution of employment between PTOs, on the one hand, and EMs and IECs, on the other one. However, if employment evenly splits distribution between PTOs and equipment manufacturers and installers, a marked asymmetry exists in terms of companies’ size. The market structure appears much more fragmented for the latter, presenting a much higher number of actors, spanning small to large companies (Table 6 and 7).12 Moreover, the reported data offer some preliminary insights on the accelerated dynamics 10

The three-digit classification has often proved to be not strict enough to identify all and only TLC employers. The number of individual TLC companies amounted to 290, yet for only 245 of them the R&P database records at least one labour spell during the observed years. This happens because a company may not enrol employees who were born on one of the four dates selected to build up the R&P database. This represents an intrinsic limit of the sample, which may underestimate the presence of smaller companies. 12 Of course, the only company with more than 10,000 employees in Table 7 is Telecom Italia. 11

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P. Garrone, F. Sgobbi / Telecommunications Policy 25 (2001) 565–585 Table 6 The companies in the sample Year

Total

PTOs

Ems

IECs

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

195 206 209 212 214 209 204 203 202 204

7 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 13

169 179 182 186 189 185 180 179 178 176

19 19 19 19 18 17 16 15 15 15

Table 7 The sampled companies by average size o200

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

200–499

500–999

1.000–9.999

>10.000

Total

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

126 130 132 133 137 134 133 132 133 134

64.6 63.1 63.2 62.7 64.0 64.1 65.2 65.0 65.8 65.7

34 39 39 40 38 36 33 32 31 31

17.4 18.9 18.7 18.9 17.8 17.2 16.2 15.8 15.3 15.2

13 15 15 15 15 16 16 17 16 16

6.7 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.0 7.7 7.8 8.4 7.9 7.8

21 21 22 23 23 22 21 21 21 22

10.8 10.2 10.5 10.8 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.8

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

195 206 209 212 214 209 204 203 202 204

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

experienced by PTOs at the end of the observed period in terms of new actors and employment stocks.

4. Tabular analysis This section depicts the evolution of the employment structure in Italian TLC sector as resulting from the tabular analysis of the selected panel. 4.1. Employment stocks According to the comprehensive evidence offered by Table 5, the surveyed sample shows an increase in the total employment base in the sector during the observed years. However, the overall figure results from opposite trends (Table 8). The growth was mainly driven by PTOs, while EM firms in the sample cut jobs as the national economy slowed down at the beginning of

575

P. Garrone, F. Sgobbi / Telecommunications Policy 25 (2001) 565–585 Table 8 Employment by industry branch Year

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

PTOs

EMs

IECs

Total

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

863 862 912 940 954 994 987 1127 1101 1102

47.2 48.8 48.9 48.8 48.2 48.0 49.2 52.2 53.3 54.1

826 778 804 823 852 911 854 872 819 794

45.2 44.1 43.1 42.8 43.1 44.0 42.6 40.4 39.7 39.0

138 125 150 162 173 167 165 162 144 142

7.6 7.1 8.0 8.4 8.7 8.1 8.2 7.5 7.0 7.0

1827 1765 1866 1925 1979 2072 2006 2161 2064 2038

the nineties. IECs show a slightly positive balance between 1986 and 1995, yet the impact of the negative economic trend in the early nineties reduced the relative weight of IECs as employers in the sector. 4.2. Employment stocks by professional qualification When examined against the profile of professional qualifications, all three sub-sectors display an increasing relative weight of white-collar positions. However, this trend evolves according to differentiated patterns. The phenomenon was particularly remarkable for the PTOs, where the share of white-collars increased by over 28%. The growth involved all variegated white-collar positions: full-time clerks, part-time clerks, and line managers (Table 9). PTOs are also the only sub-sector where part-time employees achieved a significant share of the total work force: from 1986 to 1996 their relative weight increased from 2.20% to 4.35%. In the case of manufacturers, blue- and white-collars present contrasting trends during the second half of the 1980s, while both decline in the second part of the observed years (Table 10). However , blue-collars experienced faster rates of decline. As for IECs, the stock of blue- and white-collar employees displayed analogous dynamics during the 1980s, while the effects of the economic slump exclusively involved the former (Table 11). 4.3. Employment stocks by employees’ age A noticeable reduction of the employees’ average age took place in the whole sector: in 1986 employees below 40 were 22.2% for PTOs, 42.2% for EMs, and 29.6% for IECs. Ten years later, the same percentage had shifted, respectively, to 45.8, 51.1, and 53.5 (Tables 12–14). However, the age reduction involved negligible increases of employees below 21. This evidence signals that recently created jobs in the TLCs sector require a certain degree of entry skills, which employees acquire either in the educational system or in previous positions held outside the sector.

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Table 9 Employment by vocational qualificationFPTOs White-collars Blue-collars Managers Line-managers Part-time white-collars Part-time blue-collars Total # 1986 447 1987 430 1988 492 1989 583 1990 597 1991 653 1992 717 1993 843 1994 826 1995 764

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

51.80 49.88 53.95 62.02 62.58 65.69 72.64 74.80 75.02 69.33

382 385 372 307 296 282 209 216 201 184

44.26 44.66 40.79 32.66 31.03 28.37 21.18 19.17 18.26 16.70

9 9 9 9 10 10 10 14 13 13

1.04 1.04 0.99 0.96 1.05 1.01 1.01 1.24 1.18 1.18

6 6 6 6 6 0 6 6 6 93

0.70 0.70 0.66 0.64 0.63 0.00 0.61 0.53 0.54 8.44

11 25 24 34 43 47 43 47 54 46

1.27 2.90 2.63 3.62 4.51 4.73 4.36 4.17 4.90 4.17

8 7 9 1 2 2 2 1 1 2

0.93 0.81 0.99 0.11 0.21 0.20 0.20 0.09 0.09 0.18

863 862 912 940 954 994 987 1127 1101 1102

Table 10 Employment by vocational qualificationFEMs White-collars Blue-collars Managers Line-managers Part-time white-collars Part-time blue-collars Total # 1986 337 1987 315 1988 343 1989 369 1990 380 1991 422 1992 407 1993 412 1994 400 1995 380

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

40.80 40.44 42.66 44.84 44.60 46.32 47.66 47.25 48.84 47.86

467 440 436 427 446 453 409 419 378 351

56.54 56.48 54.23 51.88 52.35 49.73 47.89 48.05 46.15 44.21

13 15 16 15 16 23 23 24 23 25

1.57 1.93 1.99 1.82 1.88 2.52 2.69 2.75 2.81 3.15

4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 26

0.48 0.64 0.62 0.73 0.70 0.77 0.82 0.92 0.98 3.27

2 2 2 3 2 3 4 4 4 5

0.24 0.26 0.25 0.36 0.23 0.33 0.47 0.46 0.49 0.63

3 2 2 3 2 3 4 5 6 7

0.36 0.26 0.25 0.36 0.23 0.33 0.47 0.57 0.73 0.88

826 779 804 823 852 911 854 872 819 794

In all the three areas of the TLCs sector the reduction in average age took place at the expense of older employees (51–60 years old), whose presence declined both in absolute and relative terms: anyway, the decline inolder workers was particularly remarkable at EMs and IECs. All three areas also recorded a growing number of employees aged between 41 and 50. However, their relative weight at PTOs declined over time, due to the massive injection of younger new entrants. On the contrary, at EMs and IECs employees aged between 41 and 50 grew both in absolute and relative terms. Moreover, the change of employment structure at PTOs also involved the increase of participation by people between 21 and 25 (who switched from virtually nothing to almost 5% of the labour force), while this age band continued to be neglected by EMs and IECs. This evidence suggests not only a higher commitment to internal training by PTOs, but also that skills specificity still remains as a distinctive feature of the PTOs’ labour market.

577

P. Garrone, F. Sgobbi / Telecommunications Policy 25 (2001) 565–585 Table 11 Employment by vocational qualificationFIECs White-collars

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Blue-collars

Managers

Total

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

55 50 61 66 71 71 73 73 68 71

39.86 40.00 40.67 40.74 41.04 42.51 44.24 45.06 47.22 50.00

82 74 88 96 102 96 92 89 75 70

59.42 59.20 58.67 59.26 58.96 57.49 55.76 54.94 52.08 49.30

1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1

0.72 0.80 0.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.69 0.70

138 125 150 162 173 167 165 162 144 142

41–50

51–60

Table 12 Employment by employees’ age bandFPTOs o21

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

21–25

26–30

31–40

Total

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

1 4 5 7 6 6 5 7 6 4

0.12 0.48 0.56 0.76 0.64 0.61 0.51 0.63 0.55 0.37

13 10 13 14 17 24 27 37 54 53

1.55 1.19 1.46 1.52 1.81 2.45 2.77 3.33 4.95 4.84

17 18 38 63 81 104 114 123 132 154

2.02 2.14 4.26 6.83 8.63 10.62 11.69 11.07 12.10 14.06

156 174 209 224 239 255 258 301 304 290

18.55 20.69 23.40 24.27 25.45 26.05 26.46 27.09 27.86 26.48

362 359 360 355 353 353 352 381 382 391

43.04 42.69 40.31 38.46 37.59 36.06 36.10 34.29 35.01 35.71

292 276 268 260 243 237 219 262 213 203

34.72 32.82 30.01 28.17 25.88 24.21 22.46 23.58 19.52 18.54

841 841 893 923 939 979 975 1111 1091 1095

4.4. Employment dynamics The analysis of employment outflows and inflows by sector branch clearly shows the higher exposure of EMs and IECs to the economic cycle (Tables 15 and 16). EMs dominate the outflows dynamics, especially at the beginning of the nineties (when terminated job-spells significantly increased also for IECs). This evidence supports the characterisation of PTOs as internal labour markets before branch restructuring. The picture started to evolve in 1994, when the entry of new competitors accelerated both inward and outward dynamics. The evolution of new and terminated labour spells offers no clue to the particular privileged directions of employment flows. For this reason, the examination of inter-companies transfers usefully complements the tabular analysis of employment dynamics. In order to detect possible evolutionary trends, the time frame covered has been split into two intervals: 1986–1990

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Table 13 Employment by employees’ age bandFEMs o21

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

21–25

26–30

31–40

41–50

51–60

Total

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

3 5 8 10 7 3 2 2 2 1

0.37 0.65 1.01 1.23 0.83 0.33 0.24 0.23 0.25 0.13

29 32 41 36 41 32 30 23 23 21

3.55 4.16 5.16 4.41 4.84 3.54 3.53 2.65 2.82 2.65

70 60 74 84 91 115 119 117 119 118

8.57 7.79 9.31 10.29 10.74 12.72 14.00 13.48 14.58 14.90

267 245 250 257 268 275 275 278 273 265

32.68 31.82 31.45 31.50 31.64 30.42 32.35 32.03 33.46 33.46

273 270 270 278 294 309 289 327 306 302

33.41 35.06 33.96 34.07 34.71 34.18 34.00 37.67 37.50 38.13

175 158 152 151 146 170 135 121 93 85

21.42 20.52 19.12 18.50 17.24 18.81 15.88 13.94 11.40 10.73

817 770 795 816 847 904 850 868 816 792

Table 14 Employment by employees’ age bandFIECs o21

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

21–25

26–30

31–40

41–50

51–60

Total

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

0.00 0.82 0.00 0.63 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

5 1 6 5 10 6 3 1 1 0

3.70 0.82 4.08 3.14 5.81 3.61 1.83 0.62 0.69 0.00

8 5 13 23 29 30 29 26 25 24

5.93 4.10 8.84 14.47 16.86 18.07 17.68 16.15 17.36 16.90

27 24 32 34 39 39 43 47 48 52

20.00 19.67 21.77 21.38 22.67 23.49 26.22 29.19 33.33 36.62

44 43 47 48 46 46 48 50 50 50

32.59 35.25 31.97 30.19 26.74 27.71 29.27 31.06 34.72 35.21

51 48 49 48 47 45 41 37 20 16

37.78 39.34 33.33 30.19 27.33 27.11 25.00 22.98 13.89 11.27

135 122 147 159 172 166 164 161 144 142

(Table 17) and 1991–1995 (Table 18).13 The origin and destination of employment flows take into account not only the different branches identified within the TLC sector (PTOs, EMs, and IECs), but also INPS-covered positions in other sectors and positions for which INPS did not supply social security.14 Tables 17 and 18 also report the average age of employees joining a specific labour flow.

13 A sensitivity analysis was performed on R&P data for Telecom Italia employees to point out the most significant division of the observed time frame. Estimates are available upon request from the authors. 14 During the observed time frame INPS was not in charge for the social welfare of public sector employees, selfemployed workers, and employment categories endowed with autonomous welfare systems (typically professional orders, as well as top-managers).

579

P. Garrone, F. Sgobbi / Telecommunications Policy 25 (2001) 565–585 Table 15 New job-spellsa Year

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 a

PTOs

EMs

IECs

Total

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

40 71 62 52 70 28 90 58 141

24.84 34.63 24.80 23.42 25.74 24.56 39.13 52.25 66.20

108 103 141 132 180 73 136 48 61

67.08 50.24 56.40 59.46 66.18 64.04 59.13 43.24 28.64

13 31 47 38 22 13 4 5 11

8.07 15.12 18.80 17.12 8.09 11.40 1.74 4.50 5.16

161 205 250 222 272 114 230 111 213

Note: Data for 1986 have been excluded from the analysis due to their reduced reliability.

Table 16 Terminated job-spells Year

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

PTOs

EMs

IECs

Total

#

%

#

%

#

%

#

38 38 25 34 27 16 48 39 216 113

27.14 28.57 19.53 19.77 15.34 11.76 18.32 23.64 60.67 35.53

93 84 92 114 128 100 193 101 115 190

66.43 63.16 71.88 66.28 72.73 73.53 73.66 61.21 32.30 59.75

9 11 11 24 21 20 21 25 25 15

6.43 8.27 8.59 13.95 11.93 14.71 8.02 15.15 7.02 4.72

140 133 128 172 176 136 262 165 356 318

The comparison between Tables 17 and 18 outlines higher intra-sector mobility for PTOs and EMs employees after 1990, while IECs show a persistent impermeability to intra-TLCs labour flows. Three facts deserve special attention. 1. An external labour market for PTOs’ employees developed after 1990,15 i.e. when new entrants flanked the former monopolist. While the sample showed no intra-PTOs labour flows between 1986 and 1990, inter-company exchanges were boosted in the following 5 years. The development of an external labour market is evidenced by the increases in the age of leavers. Such a change reflects the growing importance of human capital in an increasingly competitive 15

No labour flows were detected between Telecom Italia and the providers of value-added services already existing before 1990. Out of the 108 detected transfers, 51 are from other PTOs to the former monopolist, while 55 concern transfers from Telecom Italia to new entrants.

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P. Garrone, F. Sgobbi / Telecommunications Policy 25 (2001) 565–585

Table 17 Inter-companies flows 1986–1990a From

To

PTOs

EMs

IECs

PTOs

Number Average age Number Average age Number Average age Number Average age Number Average age

0 F 7 28.5 2 24 104 25 150 24

2 27 56 37.2 2 31 244 32 178 27

1 40 4 39.7 0 F 83 28.3 51 28

Number Average age

263 24.5

482 30.7

139 28.6

EMs IECs Other INPS Not INPS

Total arrivals a

Other INPS

Not INPS

Total departures

43 27 185 33.4 47 31 n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.

118 50 185 45.7 23 46.3 n.r. n.r. n.a. n.a.

275 32

326 47.3

164 43.6 437 39.1 74 35.6 431 29.6 379 25.9 1485 1485

Note: n.r., not relevant. Other INPS: movements to and from INPS-covered positions external to the TLCs sector. Not INPS: movements to and from positions not covered by INPS (including retirement and unemployment).

Table 18 Inter-company flows 1991–1995a From

To

PTOs

EMs

IECs

Other INPS

Not INPS

Total departures

PTOs

Number Average age Number Average age Number Average age Number Average age Number Average age

108 38 7 31.6 0 F 104 25.4 217 36

2 29 118 41 7 37.1 291 32.4 88 31

0 F 21 36 0 F 30 34.7 7 28.5

37 25.3 230 35 37 32.6 n.r. n.r. n.r. n.r.

187 50 330 47 61 46.9 n.r. n.r. n.a. n.a.

Number Average age

436 33.9

506 34.2

58 34.4

304 33.5

578 48

334 43.2 706 41.6 105 41.2 425 30.8 312 34.4 1972 1925

EMs IECs Other INPS Not INPS

Total arrivals a

Note: n.r., not relevant. Other INPS: movements to and from INPS-covered positions external to the TLCs sector. Not INPS: movements to and from positions not covered by INPS (including retirement and unemployment).

environment characterised by technological and organisational change. As competitive pressure develops the external labour market becomes a faster and more effective source of required evolving competencies than internal training. 2. The number of inflows from other INPS sectors to the whole TLCs sector is similar for the two observed periods (425 arrivals between 1986 and 1990 against 431 in the following 5 years). This holds particularly for PTOs, where arrivals from other INPS sectors were equal in

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the two periods (104 against 104). However, the total number of new labour spells at PTOs rose by almost 66% between 1986 and 1990 and 1991–1995. Accordingly, the stability of absolute numbers signals a lower resort to other INPS sectors as sources of new competencies. This may reflect the strong specificity of competencies required at PTOs. The evidence is reinforced by the substantial stability of the age of new entrants from other INPS sectors, which is about 25. By mainly involving younger employees with reduced professional experience, inflows from other INPS sectors reproduce the typical pattern of internal labour markets, where skill specificity restricts new entries to lower job grades. 3. The inflows from non-INPS sectors (namely: new entrants in the labour market, unemployed people and older professionals and managers) decelerated after 1990. Yet, the overall figure results from two opposite trends: a dramatic decrease for EMs and IECs (reflecting the above outlined contraction of new hires), and an equally substantial increase for PTOs. In the latter case, the increase in the average age of new entrants (from 24 to 36) derives from a peculiar phenomenon. The ‘‘traditional’’ inflow of younger people at their first employment experience is flanked by a new flow of older professionals and managers (whose social welfare does not usually depend on INPS). The latter bring to the fast-changing PTOs those innovative and highly professional competencies they cannot build in-house, such as marketing competencies.

5. Statistical analysis The tabular analysis provided in the previous section offered several interesting clues for appreciation of the evolving employment dynamics in the overall Italian TLC sector and particularly for PTOs. The resulting framework is puzzling. If the data from the late eighties confirm that internal labour markets dominated employment dynamics at TLC carriers, the signals from most recent years are less clear. The opening up of personnel strategies based on the external labour market is accompanied by emphasis on skill specificity and in-house training. Statistical tools offer a promising path to validate the hints suggested by the tabular analysis. Given the preliminary nature of the present research, we tested some very simple hypotheses concerning the evolution of employment stocks and dynamics in the different branches of the Italian TLCs industry. They can be grouped according to the issue examined as follows. 1. Employees’ professional qualification–During the observed years changes took place: (a) in the composition of employment stocks by professional qualifications; (b) in the composition of labour inflows by professional qualifications; (c) in the composition of labour outflows by professional qualifications. 2. Employees’ age band–During the observed years changes took place: (a) in the composition of employment stocks by age bands; (b) in the composition of labour inflows by age bands; (c) in the composition of labour outflows by age bands. In both cases, the first statement relates to employment stocks, while the following two are concerned with inflow and outflow dynamics and their effects on employment stocks. Given the specificity of each distinct group in the sector, the analysis has been performed separately for

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PTOs, EMs, and IECs. Two-step Pearson chi-squared tests for multinomial empirical distributions were used to validate the above statements. The analysis developed along two lines: when the null hypothesis was rejected (i.e. when a change was detected either in the composition of stocks or in inflow and outflow dynamics), a sensitivity analysis was performed to qualify the direction of change. Table 19 displays the tested hypotheses and the obtained results. PTOs were confirmed as the area subject to the most pervasive change, since null hypotheses were always rejected. All the sector branches witnessed a progressive increase in the relative weight of white- against blue-collar employees. However, the trajectories display important peculiarities. It appears that the dynamics driving the evolution of IECs’ employment stocks (statistically significant, even if with lower confidence levels than for PTOs and EMs) were already established at the beginning of the observed period. Indeed, no significant changes were detected in the pattern of distribution of vocational profiles for labour inflows and outflows. EMs emphasised white-collar inflows without modifying the composition of outward flows, which already penalised blue collars in the middle eighties. In comparison, PTOs present noteworthy peculiarities. The dramatic change of employment stocks by vocational qualification reported in Table 9 was achieved by favouring the entry of white-collar employees,16 yet at the same time the evolution of outflows did not penalise bluecollars.17 It may be claimed that the opening to external labour markets mainly involved recently hired, white-collar human capital, while the norms of the internal labour market continue to protect the ‘‘traditional’’ employment base. The last remark is further stressed by comparing the results of the second group of chi-squared tests: the composition of PTOs’ employment stocks by age bands changed in favour of employees under 30. However, this result was due to accelerated inflow and outflow dynamics for younger employees rather than to the increasing exclusion of older workers.

6. Concluding remarks TLCs are still living in an era of institutional and technological ferment and turmoil, which will probably reflect on the further evolution of the employment structure in the sector. However, as human resources become an increasingly critical success factor for both incumbents and new entrants, a better understanding of the phenomena underlying the continuous and multi-faceted employment changes will be needed. Despite the rather simple methodological tools upon which this analysis is based, the resort to micro-data representative of the overall Italian TLCs sector has achieved interesting results. They can be summarised as follows. 16

The panel analysis also evidenced the basic role played by internal upgrading in shaping the organisation’s composition by vocational qualification: 162 internal shifts from blue- to white-collar positions were reported between 1986 and 1990, against 77 in the following 5 years. 17 PTOs are the only organisations where a positive trend has been detected for the ratio between stayers (i.e. employees who do not experience either internal or external career changes) and the total employment stock, notably in the case of blue-collar employees.

#

Test specification

TLC branch

H0 rejected

Chi-Squared

Confidence level

Sensitivity analysis

1a

The composition of employment stocks by vocational qualifications changed During the observed years

PTOs EMs IECs

Yes Yes Yes

422.92 56.457 4073

99% 99% 95%

White-collars favoured White-collars favoured White-collars favoured

1b

The composition of labour inflows by Vocational qualifications changed during the observed years

PTOs EMs IECs

Yes Yes No

209.02 13.935 0.3072

99% 99% F

White-collars favoured White-collars favoured

1c

The composition of labour outflows by Vocational qualifications changed during the observed years

PTOs EMs IECs

Yes No No

34.285 2.0186 4.9469

99% F F

Blue-collars not penalised

2a

The composition of employment stocks by age bands changed during the observed Years

PTOs EMs IECs

Yes Yes Yes

282.53 94.55 55.342

99% 99% 99%

Employees below 30 favoured Employees below 30 favoured Employees below 40 favoured

2b

The composition of labour inflows by age bands changed during the observed Years

PTOs EMs IECs

Yes Yes Yes

116.88 21.381 13.994

99% 99% 95%

Under 30 favoured 26–30 and 51–60 favoured 31–40 favoured

2c

The composition of labour outflows by age bands changed during the observed Years

PTOs EMs IECs

Yes Yes Yes

15.933 42.956 13.94

99% 99% 95%

Over 40 not penalised Over 40 penalised Over 40 penalised

P. Garrone, F. Sgobbi / Telecommunications Policy 25 (2001) 565–585

Table 19 Results of statistical tests

583

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The first research question concerned the re-shaping of employment at PTOs. The analysis of employment stock data, complemented by the examination of employment outflows and inflows, has highlighted the impact of institutional and technological change over the employment structure of the sector at national level. 1. The substitution of white-collar for blue-collar workers was clearly evident in the overall TLCs sector, but involved PTOs to a larger extent. 2. This white-collarisation of the labour force was accompanied by a reduction of the employees’ average age. The number of employees over 50 shrank in all organisations, but in the case of PTOs the enlargement or employee numbers in the younger age bands was particularly marked. The second research issue concerned the question of whether the restructuring of the PTOs’ labour force is effectively producing a shift towards external labour market practices. In relation to this point, contradictory signals exist, because the former State-owned PTO is still clearly dominated in the national communication systems. 3. In a relatively short time the entry of new competitors has revitalised the labour market for PTOs, even though inter-company labour flows mainly involve relatively younger white-collar employees. 4. New entrants exhibit shorter job tenures; moreover, the higher age of new entrants signal a wider resort to the external labour market as a competence buffer. 5. Nevertheless, internal careers still predominate over external ones: e.g., a significant share of the labour force of new entrants is under 25, and internal upgrading has proven to be an effective means of modifying the company professional profile. 6. At the same time, the comparative examination of employment inflows and outflows at PTOs continues the existence of personnel policies which protect the holders of less tradable skills, such as older blue-collar employees. Similar mechanisms were not detected in the case of EMs and IECs, where outflows systematically penalised older and blue-collar employees. The above results, though interesting in their own right, should be required to be confirmed and integrated through econometric analyses. The present sample seems to be especially suitable for more thoroughly exploring the evolution of personnel management practices in the industry (e.g. the role of internal labour markets). The main development directions for such an analysis are two-fold. First, the labour policies of the sector should be studied with a special focus on their implications for individual careers; our expectations are that a survival model based upon the employees’ micro-data may identify the most robust directions for change of personnel policies. Secondly, further analyses could take advantage from information on individual wages contained in the database. Structural models that exploit the available micro-data on wages would allow the testing of theoretical predictions concerning the existence of internal and external labour markets. Acknowledgements The present research benefited from the Fondo Mauro 1999 grant. We wish to thank Claudia Villosio, who helped in the compilation of the employers–employees panel, Valeria Vignolo, for her valuable contribution to data elaboration, and an anonymous referee for useful suggestions and comments. Thanks also go to R&P Ricerche e Progetti for having provided access to their

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