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Energy and ecological modelling
Ecological Modelling, 23
(1984) 265-273 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., Amsterdam - Printed in The Netherlands
265
Book Reviews
ENERGY AND ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
Energy and Ecological Modelling. W.J. Mitsch, R.W. Bosserman and J.M. Klopatek (Editors). Developments in Environmental Modelling, Vol. 1. Proceedings of a symposium held from 20 to 23 April 1981 at Louisville, Kentucky. Elsevier, Amsterdam--Oxford--New York--Tokyo, 1981. 839 pp., US $139.50, D r . 300.-, ISBN 0-444-99731-8. This volume was published jointly by the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM) and Elsevier Science Publishers as the first volume of the new series "Developments in Environmental Modelling". It is an outstanding example of the extent and recent development of the use of Mathematical Modelling for solving urgent complex problems of mankind. The alarming rise of CO 2 at Mauna Loa gave an impetus to solve the carbon dioxide dynamics in the biosphere and the interactions of human activities with its components. In the first part of the volume, seven papers contribute to an understanding of the atmosphere-ocean interactions, effects of the major carbon dioxide producers and the role of terrestrial biota within the global carbon cyle. In one contribution Schware identifies the countries producing, at present or in the recent past, most of the carbon dioxide, and discusses their importance to the future of the carbon dioxide problem. In the second part (seven papers), the environmental impact of fossil fuel developments are modelled. Some of the models are in early stages of development and provide more of a study concept than preliminary solutions. Some of the aquatic models like PEST (Park et al.) or the aquatic insect model (Smith) seem more advanced, presenting some calibrations of their structures as well as reasonable fits to observed data. A particular aspect of the aquatic ecosystem models--their use for evaluating the power generation impact--is the heading for the third part of the volume (seven papers). Swartzman et al. present their simulation language AEGIS (Aquatic Ecosystem General Impact Simulator) build on extensive intercomparisons of 26 existing simulation models. The other contributions range from a model for particular sites (e.g. using a combined holistic and theoretical approach) to more specific questions of the behavioural responses of fish in heated effluents, primary and secondary hydrolysis products in chlorinated marine waters, and sources of uncertainty in ecological predictions. Aquatic ecosystems are once more the subject of part 4, this time in respect to hydropower generation effects on streams, estuaries and reservoirs (nine papers). Radford estimates the possible effects of constructing a dam
266 for generation of tidal power on the Severn Estuary in England. Impressive agreements between the observed and simulated depth profiles of many parameters of water quality are shown by Gar§on for a French reservoir. Water quality problems are modelled by means of the well studied model QUAL, of the United States Environmental Protection Agency, as well as by others. Specific problems concern river rediversion, anadromous fish, periphyton and sediment transport. For the impact on air pollution, which is the subject of the fifth part of the volume (eight papers), the major concern seems to be sulphur dioxide. For the grassland ecosystem model SAGE, the simulated long-term response is in very good agreement with observed data (Heasley et al.). This model also quantifies a number of intricacies of ecological food webs. Holtons' contribution is one of the few that advances from predictions to management: his model concerns strategies of optimal ozone control. Regional systems, as treated in part six (15 papers), show how much collective endeavour is now undertaken to collate different aspects of man's activity in different regions into unified modelling frameworks. The last three parts, seven to nine, consider different roles of energy: in ecological theory (ten papers); as new energies for man (eight papers); and as a measure and model basis for economics (eight papers). In the theoretical part new trends in ecological modelling do emerge. Jorgensen and Mejer present ideas on energy as a key function in ecological models; a control hypothesis for ecosystems is presented by Knight, Quinlain reports on thermo-chemical optimization of ecological processes and Ulanowicz develops a unified theory of self-organiZation. The examples named for each direction are not intended to represent the most outstanding ones, because such judgement will greatly depend on the reader's interests and objectives. They only aim at demonstrating the diversity of the topics treated and of the approaches and modelling objectives. Some of the reports are too general to provide more than information on the efforts in progress, which often seems to be more than mere restricted reportage. In general, we can recognize an increasing number of maturing models, which begin to provide us with relevant ideas about nature. However, many healthy critical voices were raised to stress the inadequacies of the models, and most authors seem to be aware than m o r e i s still before us than is behind. Comparisons of simulations with observations, such as Figs. 2-3 by Heasley et al. and Figs. 8-9 by Gar§on, may seem rather promising for a new modelling era, but we need many more such specific examples and more adequate model validation techniques before we can be sure about the real value of our models for answering pressing problems. One, thing is sure: systems analysis and mathematical modelling is clearly the only methodology able to cope with such complex problems as those of
267 understanding how the environment reacts to our activity. The greatest advantage of the reviewed volume is that it demonstrates this clearly. M. STRASKRABA
(Hydrobiological Laboratory, Institute of Landscape Ecology, Czechoslovac Academy of Sciences, Na s?tdkftch 702, 370 05 Ceskb BudOjovice, Czechoslovakia)
ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS
Vegetation Dynamics in Grasslands, Heathlands and Mediterranean Ligneous Formations. P. Poissonet, F. Romane, M.P. Austin, E. van der Maarel and W. Schmidt (Editors). Advances in Vegetation Science No. 4, W. Junk, The Hague, 1981, x + 286 pp., Dfl. 195.00. ISBN 90-6193-636-5. This hard-bound volume is simply reprinted from volumes 46 and 47 of
Vegetatio and represents a Symposium of the Working Groups for Succession Research on permanent plots and Data-processing in phytosociology of the International Society for Vegetation Science, held at Montpellier in September, 1980. The switch from "succession" in the symposium title to "vegetation dynamics" in this volume is presumably significant: "vegetation dynamics" carries none of the overtones of progressive, necessary, staged development that the ghost of Frederick Clements still casts over this area of ecology. The contributors have sometimes been less circumspect: Austin and Belbin refer to a study on a suburban lawn as a succession, as do Ilijanic and Hecimovic to the comparison of two vegetation maps made 20 years apart. The tight-rope is trodden most delicately by Miles who carefully documents the many factors that can bring about vegetation change in heathlands, concentrating quite rightly on the soil. Some other papers in this volume are general in scope: Austin makes a powerful plea for the setting up of well designed permanent quadrats, Usher contributes a critical evaluation of the usefulness of Markov models, and both Orloci and Gittins consider the application of canonical techniques. The bulk of the volume is made up, however, of case studies, some of which would have difficulty in achieving publication in their present form in a normal journal issue. Their variety makes for interesting reading but fails
(1984) 265-273 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., Amsterdam - Printed in The Netherlands
265
Book Reviews
ENERGY AND ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
Energy and Ecological Modelling. W.J. Mitsch, R.W. Bosserman and J.M. Klopatek (Editors). Developments in Environmental Modelling, Vol. 1. Proceedings of a symposium held from 20 to 23 April 1981 at Louisville, Kentucky. Elsevier, Amsterdam--Oxford--New York--Tokyo, 1981. 839 pp., US $139.50, D r . 300.-, ISBN 0-444-99731-8. This volume was published jointly by the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM) and Elsevier Science Publishers as the first volume of the new series "Developments in Environmental Modelling". It is an outstanding example of the extent and recent development of the use of Mathematical Modelling for solving urgent complex problems of mankind. The alarming rise of CO 2 at Mauna Loa gave an impetus to solve the carbon dioxide dynamics in the biosphere and the interactions of human activities with its components. In the first part of the volume, seven papers contribute to an understanding of the atmosphere-ocean interactions, effects of the major carbon dioxide producers and the role of terrestrial biota within the global carbon cyle. In one contribution Schware identifies the countries producing, at present or in the recent past, most of the carbon dioxide, and discusses their importance to the future of the carbon dioxide problem. In the second part (seven papers), the environmental impact of fossil fuel developments are modelled. Some of the models are in early stages of development and provide more of a study concept than preliminary solutions. Some of the aquatic models like PEST (Park et al.) or the aquatic insect model (Smith) seem more advanced, presenting some calibrations of their structures as well as reasonable fits to observed data. A particular aspect of the aquatic ecosystem models--their use for evaluating the power generation impact--is the heading for the third part of the volume (seven papers). Swartzman et al. present their simulation language AEGIS (Aquatic Ecosystem General Impact Simulator) build on extensive intercomparisons of 26 existing simulation models. The other contributions range from a model for particular sites (e.g. using a combined holistic and theoretical approach) to more specific questions of the behavioural responses of fish in heated effluents, primary and secondary hydrolysis products in chlorinated marine waters, and sources of uncertainty in ecological predictions. Aquatic ecosystems are once more the subject of part 4, this time in respect to hydropower generation effects on streams, estuaries and reservoirs (nine papers). Radford estimates the possible effects of constructing a dam
266 for generation of tidal power on the Severn Estuary in England. Impressive agreements between the observed and simulated depth profiles of many parameters of water quality are shown by Gar§on for a French reservoir. Water quality problems are modelled by means of the well studied model QUAL, of the United States Environmental Protection Agency, as well as by others. Specific problems concern river rediversion, anadromous fish, periphyton and sediment transport. For the impact on air pollution, which is the subject of the fifth part of the volume (eight papers), the major concern seems to be sulphur dioxide. For the grassland ecosystem model SAGE, the simulated long-term response is in very good agreement with observed data (Heasley et al.). This model also quantifies a number of intricacies of ecological food webs. Holtons' contribution is one of the few that advances from predictions to management: his model concerns strategies of optimal ozone control. Regional systems, as treated in part six (15 papers), show how much collective endeavour is now undertaken to collate different aspects of man's activity in different regions into unified modelling frameworks. The last three parts, seven to nine, consider different roles of energy: in ecological theory (ten papers); as new energies for man (eight papers); and as a measure and model basis for economics (eight papers). In the theoretical part new trends in ecological modelling do emerge. Jorgensen and Mejer present ideas on energy as a key function in ecological models; a control hypothesis for ecosystems is presented by Knight, Quinlain reports on thermo-chemical optimization of ecological processes and Ulanowicz develops a unified theory of self-organiZation. The examples named for each direction are not intended to represent the most outstanding ones, because such judgement will greatly depend on the reader's interests and objectives. They only aim at demonstrating the diversity of the topics treated and of the approaches and modelling objectives. Some of the reports are too general to provide more than information on the efforts in progress, which often seems to be more than mere restricted reportage. In general, we can recognize an increasing number of maturing models, which begin to provide us with relevant ideas about nature. However, many healthy critical voices were raised to stress the inadequacies of the models, and most authors seem to be aware than m o r e i s still before us than is behind. Comparisons of simulations with observations, such as Figs. 2-3 by Heasley et al. and Figs. 8-9 by Gar§on, may seem rather promising for a new modelling era, but we need many more such specific examples and more adequate model validation techniques before we can be sure about the real value of our models for answering pressing problems. One, thing is sure: systems analysis and mathematical modelling is clearly the only methodology able to cope with such complex problems as those of
267 understanding how the environment reacts to our activity. The greatest advantage of the reviewed volume is that it demonstrates this clearly. M. STRASKRABA
(Hydrobiological Laboratory, Institute of Landscape Ecology, Czechoslovac Academy of Sciences, Na s?tdkftch 702, 370 05 Ceskb BudOjovice, Czechoslovakia)
ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS
Vegetation Dynamics in Grasslands, Heathlands and Mediterranean Ligneous Formations. P. Poissonet, F. Romane, M.P. Austin, E. van der Maarel and W. Schmidt (Editors). Advances in Vegetation Science No. 4, W. Junk, The Hague, 1981, x + 286 pp., Dfl. 195.00. ISBN 90-6193-636-5. This hard-bound volume is simply reprinted from volumes 46 and 47 of
Vegetatio and represents a Symposium of the Working Groups for Succession Research on permanent plots and Data-processing in phytosociology of the International Society for Vegetation Science, held at Montpellier in September, 1980. The switch from "succession" in the symposium title to "vegetation dynamics" in this volume is presumably significant: "vegetation dynamics" carries none of the overtones of progressive, necessary, staged development that the ghost of Frederick Clements still casts over this area of ecology. The contributors have sometimes been less circumspect: Austin and Belbin refer to a study on a suburban lawn as a succession, as do Ilijanic and Hecimovic to the comparison of two vegetation maps made 20 years apart. The tight-rope is trodden most delicately by Miles who carefully documents the many factors that can bring about vegetation change in heathlands, concentrating quite rightly on the soil. Some other papers in this volume are general in scope: Austin makes a powerful plea for the setting up of well designed permanent quadrats, Usher contributes a critical evaluation of the usefulness of Markov models, and both Orloci and Gittins consider the application of canonical techniques. The bulk of the volume is made up, however, of case studies, some of which would have difficulty in achieving publication in their present form in a normal journal issue. Their variety makes for interesting reading but fails