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Energy in Kenya
Biomass 8 (1985) 241-243
Short Communication Energy in Kenya
Kenya, like most African countries, faces a double energy crisis that affects the development o f b o t h the modern and traditional sectors of the economy. In the modern sector, imported oil is the most important fuel. The costs of oil importation, combined with the costs of importing equipment for the production, distribution and consumption of electricity, are a heavy burden on foreign exchange. The traditional sector, which includes household consumption and informal industry, is a significant consumer of biomass, especially fuelwood. Wood stocks are increasingly depleted as yields are insufficient to support demand. Provisional analysis o f Kenya's energy balance (1980) indicates that Kenya's total final energy requirement is 417.1 petajoules (10 is joules) or 66.7 million barrels o f oil equivalent. Wood accounts for threequarters o f all energy resources. The proportion of w o o d in final enduse consumption is somewhat smaller (69%) because substantial energy losses occur in charcoal production for urban demand. Commercial fuels account for 29% of total final consumption. The bulk of final consumption is met by petroleum. The dominant energy user is the rural household sector (52%) followed by inffustry (24%), transport (14%) and the urban household sector (6%). Agriculture only accounts for 2% of energy use despite the importance of agriculture to the Kenyan economy. (It should be noted that animate energy, such as human labour and draught animal power, is excluded from this analysis as is passive solar crop drying). These sectoral requirements are basically supplied from only two sources, oil and w o o d , which together account for 96% of all energy supplies. A summary of the Kenyan Fuelwood Cycle Project is available entitled: Energy in Kenya: opportunities and constraints, Edited by Phil O'Keefe, Paul Raskin and Steven Bernow, Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, Uppsala, 1984. Some nine supporting volumes are in preparation which provide background material on the project. 241 Biomass 0144-4565/85/$03.30- © Elsevier Applied Science Publishers Ltd, England, 1985. Printed in Great Britain
242
P. O'Keefe
Economic development will e n c o u r a g e a move from biomass to flexible solid and liquid fuels but the continuous real price escalation of imported fuels retards the rate of transition. Such retardation places stress on rural communities and increases landuse competition between w o o d and agricultural production. Total w o o d demand is 18.7 million t although only 13.0 million t is drawn from sustainable yield. The remainder is drawn from stock (i.e. forest capital), most particularly in the heavily settled areas. Total energy demand is projected to grow, over the next 20 years, at 4.7% per annum if no action is taken to conserve energy and enhance local supply options. Annual w o o d demand will increase by some 3.6% while charcoal will grow at 6.7%, reflecting the trend of accelerated urbanisation. Oil consumption will grow by some 3.9% year -1 over the same period. Since the two oil price increases of the 1970s, energy planners have emphasised the importance o f conservation efforts. They have argued that it is frequently cheaper to save a unit of energy than to produce an additional one. In the commercial sector, there have been several conservation initiatives. Import restrictions exist to limit the number of private vehicles above 1600 cc engine capacity. Given the average lifespan of cars, this will not have a major effect on consumption for five years. In the industrial sector, conservation efforts have been rapidly taken up by multinational enterprises with access to capital and advanced technologies. National firms, which do not have such access have had limited success. Structural adjustment through conservation will be a slow process because the Kenyan economy, as a whole, responds slowly to changes in relative prices and, to date, pricing policy has not allowed total rises in crude price to be passed through to oil product prices. The vintage of the capital installations requires industrial managers to choose between plant modernisation, which is capital intensive and requires expanding markets, and bearing the rising recurrent costs of energy. To date, simple conservation methods have been implemented but, until a comprehensive energy audit o f industrial processes exists, the impact of modern sector conservation will not be significant. Price rationing (i.e. those who can afford will buy) remains the chief policy instrument. The wood problem is more intractable. Wood is largely obtained from trees outside the forest;forests only supply the w o o d requirements of industry. Whole tree destruction is unusual in the countryside unless
Energy" in Kenya
243
it is for providing charcoal to the urban areas. Increasingly, therefore, it wilt be the urban demand that drives the process of deforestation and desertification. Conventional forestry strategies to enhance wood supplies are o f limited value. Attention will have to be focused on producing wood within farms in suitable agroforestry systems so that women, who are the energy providers, have easy access. To date, however. this has been tile focus of neither foresters nor agriculturalists. There nmst, however, be a rethinking of the afforestation efforts to provide trees outside the tbrest if wood is to remain as a renewable energy source. Wood conservation opportunities are also limited. Much effort has produced little result as the first generation o f improved stoves has had negligible contact. Debate continues between the 'tinkers' and the 'thinkers' about the possibilities of second generation technologies. Concentrating on the problems of urban stoves will give better results. The rural areas, where a single open fire has several simultaneou~ enduses (e.g. cooking, boiling, lighting and space heating) is a more complex issue. Stove efficiency is easily improved, but only by excluding other enduses. In particular, the loss of lighting, through enclosing the combustion area o f the stove, militates against rapid stove diffusion in the countryside. Energy options are limited. Conservation opportunities, in the modern and traditional sectors, require capital. Such capital is not readily available. Initiatives to enhance wood production will only succeed if there is a substantial rethinking of the current efforts. Despite heavy investment, the electricity sector will not provide substantial contribution to the energy budget. Over the next 20 years, energy will continue to be a pressing problem, especially at the household level.
Phil O'Keefe* The Belier Institute, The International Institute ]or Energy atut Human Ecology. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Box 50005, S-10405 Stockholm, Sweden (Received: 31 January, 1985) *Present address: 5 Northumberland NE30 4BA, UK.
Terrace, Tynemouth, Northumberland
Short Communication Energy in Kenya
Kenya, like most African countries, faces a double energy crisis that affects the development o f b o t h the modern and traditional sectors of the economy. In the modern sector, imported oil is the most important fuel. The costs of oil importation, combined with the costs of importing equipment for the production, distribution and consumption of electricity, are a heavy burden on foreign exchange. The traditional sector, which includes household consumption and informal industry, is a significant consumer of biomass, especially fuelwood. Wood stocks are increasingly depleted as yields are insufficient to support demand. Provisional analysis o f Kenya's energy balance (1980) indicates that Kenya's total final energy requirement is 417.1 petajoules (10 is joules) or 66.7 million barrels o f oil equivalent. Wood accounts for threequarters o f all energy resources. The proportion of w o o d in final enduse consumption is somewhat smaller (69%) because substantial energy losses occur in charcoal production for urban demand. Commercial fuels account for 29% of total final consumption. The bulk of final consumption is met by petroleum. The dominant energy user is the rural household sector (52%) followed by inffustry (24%), transport (14%) and the urban household sector (6%). Agriculture only accounts for 2% of energy use despite the importance of agriculture to the Kenyan economy. (It should be noted that animate energy, such as human labour and draught animal power, is excluded from this analysis as is passive solar crop drying). These sectoral requirements are basically supplied from only two sources, oil and w o o d , which together account for 96% of all energy supplies. A summary of the Kenyan Fuelwood Cycle Project is available entitled: Energy in Kenya: opportunities and constraints, Edited by Phil O'Keefe, Paul Raskin and Steven Bernow, Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, Uppsala, 1984. Some nine supporting volumes are in preparation which provide background material on the project. 241 Biomass 0144-4565/85/$03.30- © Elsevier Applied Science Publishers Ltd, England, 1985. Printed in Great Britain
242
P. O'Keefe
Economic development will e n c o u r a g e a move from biomass to flexible solid and liquid fuels but the continuous real price escalation of imported fuels retards the rate of transition. Such retardation places stress on rural communities and increases landuse competition between w o o d and agricultural production. Total w o o d demand is 18.7 million t although only 13.0 million t is drawn from sustainable yield. The remainder is drawn from stock (i.e. forest capital), most particularly in the heavily settled areas. Total energy demand is projected to grow, over the next 20 years, at 4.7% per annum if no action is taken to conserve energy and enhance local supply options. Annual w o o d demand will increase by some 3.6% while charcoal will grow at 6.7%, reflecting the trend of accelerated urbanisation. Oil consumption will grow by some 3.9% year -1 over the same period. Since the two oil price increases of the 1970s, energy planners have emphasised the importance o f conservation efforts. They have argued that it is frequently cheaper to save a unit of energy than to produce an additional one. In the commercial sector, there have been several conservation initiatives. Import restrictions exist to limit the number of private vehicles above 1600 cc engine capacity. Given the average lifespan of cars, this will not have a major effect on consumption for five years. In the industrial sector, conservation efforts have been rapidly taken up by multinational enterprises with access to capital and advanced technologies. National firms, which do not have such access have had limited success. Structural adjustment through conservation will be a slow process because the Kenyan economy, as a whole, responds slowly to changes in relative prices and, to date, pricing policy has not allowed total rises in crude price to be passed through to oil product prices. The vintage of the capital installations requires industrial managers to choose between plant modernisation, which is capital intensive and requires expanding markets, and bearing the rising recurrent costs of energy. To date, simple conservation methods have been implemented but, until a comprehensive energy audit o f industrial processes exists, the impact of modern sector conservation will not be significant. Price rationing (i.e. those who can afford will buy) remains the chief policy instrument. The wood problem is more intractable. Wood is largely obtained from trees outside the forest;forests only supply the w o o d requirements of industry. Whole tree destruction is unusual in the countryside unless
Energy" in Kenya
243
it is for providing charcoal to the urban areas. Increasingly, therefore, it wilt be the urban demand that drives the process of deforestation and desertification. Conventional forestry strategies to enhance wood supplies are o f limited value. Attention will have to be focused on producing wood within farms in suitable agroforestry systems so that women, who are the energy providers, have easy access. To date, however. this has been tile focus of neither foresters nor agriculturalists. There nmst, however, be a rethinking of the afforestation efforts to provide trees outside the tbrest if wood is to remain as a renewable energy source. Wood conservation opportunities are also limited. Much effort has produced little result as the first generation o f improved stoves has had negligible contact. Debate continues between the 'tinkers' and the 'thinkers' about the possibilities of second generation technologies. Concentrating on the problems of urban stoves will give better results. The rural areas, where a single open fire has several simultaneou~ enduses (e.g. cooking, boiling, lighting and space heating) is a more complex issue. Stove efficiency is easily improved, but only by excluding other enduses. In particular, the loss of lighting, through enclosing the combustion area o f the stove, militates against rapid stove diffusion in the countryside. Energy options are limited. Conservation opportunities, in the modern and traditional sectors, require capital. Such capital is not readily available. Initiatives to enhance wood production will only succeed if there is a substantial rethinking of the current efforts. Despite heavy investment, the electricity sector will not provide substantial contribution to the energy budget. Over the next 20 years, energy will continue to be a pressing problem, especially at the household level.
Phil O'Keefe* The Belier Institute, The International Institute ]or Energy atut Human Ecology. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Box 50005, S-10405 Stockholm, Sweden (Received: 31 January, 1985) *Present address: 5 Northumberland NE30 4BA, UK.
Terrace, Tynemouth, Northumberland