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Energy research and development in the USSR: Preparations for the twenty-first century
Business Horizons / March-April 1988 I
Andrew G. Walder, Communist NeoTraditionalism: Work and Authority in Chinese Industmd. Berkeley:
University of California, 1986. 250 pp. $3O.
Energy Research and Development in the USSR: Preparations for the Twenty-First Century 86
by William J. Kelly, Hugh L. Shaffer, and J. Kenneth Thompson
The reviewer, Judith McKinney, is an assistant professor of economics at Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, New York. nergy Research and Development in E the USSR is the impressive product of a collaboration by an economist (Kelly), a scientist (Shaffer), and an engineer (Thompson), all of the Columbus Division of Battelle Memorial Institute. It was an ambitious undertaking, in both the breadth of topics addressed and the diversity of audience intended. For the most part, the authors have proved equal to the task. The book is organized around seven basic goals the authors believe are implicit in current Soviet energy policy. After an introductory chapter that lays out the study's purpose and scope, and a chapter that describes the organization of the Soviet energy R&D sector and the nature of the economic environment in which it operates, six chapters examine R&D efforts directed at achieving these seven goals. Chapter 3 looks at the prospects for increasing nuclear power output by using conventional fission reactors, fast breeder reactors, and fusion reactors. (The analysis predates the Chernobyl accident, and thus does not consider the possible impact the incident may have on Soviet plans for development of the nuclear power ind u s t r y - a n impact which recent reports suggest may be greater than we had anticipated.) Chapter 4 looks at the prospects for increasing crude oil production, especially through improvements in drilling technology and
enhanced recovery, as well as the prospects for overcoming the difficulties of transporting natural gas from the huge Arctic gas fields. Chapter 5 examines the prospects for making greater use of the abundant but low-quality coal found in Siberia, reviewing Soviet work in such areas as coal gasification, coal liquefaction, and pipeline transport of coal. The sixth, seventh, and eighth chapters address, respectively, technologies aimed at improving the efficiency of energy utilization (primarily through improvements in the generation and transmission of electricity), technologies for using alternative energy sources (such as wind, solar, and geothermal), and models intended to achieve an optimum mix of energy technologies. The book concludes with a short chapter that pulls together many of the ideas raised in the earlier sections and provides an overall assessment--favorable but cautious of the current Soviet energy strategy.
There is an enormous amount of information here. The book is so well organized, however, that the reader is seldom in danger of being overwhelmed.
Energy Research and Development is a long book and a dense one. The authors have been selective: not only have they limited themselves to an examination of research directed at seven specific goals of Soviet energy development, but they have also tried to focus on especially important programs, or those likely to have a significant impact on Soviet energy production or consumption by 1995. Nonetheless, there is an enormous amount of information here. The book is so well organized, however, that the reader is seldom in danger of being overwhelmed. The authors have provided a clear structure for the material they present, and they are careful to
step back frequently from the details to discuss the overall picture. In this way, they help make the book accessible to the different audiences they have i n t e n d e d to address--the Western scientific community, Sovietologists, and, secondarily, " s t u d e n t s of the history of science, administrators of R&D, experts on the problems of bureaucracy, social scientists, and the inquiring layman" (p. xii). Not everyone in these groups, I suspect, will wish to read the entire book, but all should find it well worth dipping into. Whether one is interested in the technical details of particular technologies, the achievements of particular organizations, or general assessments, one will find abundant material here. It is not just that the information is available. What makes the book so valuable is that one can, in fact, easily find the information one seeks. In almost every case, the authors have broken the presentation into sections on general background, technical details, key organizations and individuals, and evaluation. In addition, the~ provide three separate indexes--o: subjects, names, and organizations The book's value as a basic reference work is further enhanced by the sb appendices: one each on the "draf main directions related to energy" fo the Tenth Five-Year Plan (1976-80), th{ Eleventh Five-Year Plan (1981-85), ant selected institutes; one listing the sci entific-problem councils that hav, been set up to coordinate work ol important interbranch problems; on, listing the major Soviet institutes en gaged in energy R&D, their admin istrative affiliations, areas of researcJ activity, and key personnel; and on providing a glossary of key abbrev ations and acronyms.
Energy Research and Development i the USSR is a careful and judiciou look at some of the most importar areas of current energy R&D activit in the Soviet Union. It concludes th~ the strategy being pursued is "c( herent, technically feasible, and ec( nomically rational" (p. 317). Not a of the technologies being pursued aJ equally promising, nor is there ar guarantee that they will be impl. mented quickly or wisely. Thus, fc example, the authors believe that co
Focus on Books
liquefaction, coal gasification, and 1500-kv power lines are unlikely to be commercialized before 1995; that fusion reactors and magnetohydrodynamic power generation are unlikely to be commercialized before 2000, and that pipeline transport of Siberian coal is unlikely to prove economically rational. They point to the danger that the incremental i m p r o v e m e n t s in drilling equipment will fall short of what is needed to handle increasingly difficult exploration and production
conditions, as well as the danger that the tertiary recovery techniques being developed will be used counterproductively. Their overall assessment of Soviet energy R&D, however, is positive. If the leadership is willing to devote enough resources to the energy sector, and if the metallurgy, machine-building and construction ministries do their part (big ifs deliberately addressed only tangentially in this work), then, Kelly, Shaffer, and Thompson argue, the Soviet R&D es-
tablishment should be capable of meeting the demands it faces in the last decade and a half of this century. []
William J. Kelly, Hugh L. Shaffer, and J. Kenneth Thompson, Energy Research and Development in the USSR: Preparations for the Twenty-First Century. Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 1986. 417.pp. $62.50.
87
Andrew G. Walder, Communist NeoTraditionalism: Work and Authority in Chinese Industmd. Berkeley:
University of California, 1986. 250 pp. $3O.
Energy Research and Development in the USSR: Preparations for the Twenty-First Century 86
by William J. Kelly, Hugh L. Shaffer, and J. Kenneth Thompson
The reviewer, Judith McKinney, is an assistant professor of economics at Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, New York. nergy Research and Development in E the USSR is the impressive product of a collaboration by an economist (Kelly), a scientist (Shaffer), and an engineer (Thompson), all of the Columbus Division of Battelle Memorial Institute. It was an ambitious undertaking, in both the breadth of topics addressed and the diversity of audience intended. For the most part, the authors have proved equal to the task. The book is organized around seven basic goals the authors believe are implicit in current Soviet energy policy. After an introductory chapter that lays out the study's purpose and scope, and a chapter that describes the organization of the Soviet energy R&D sector and the nature of the economic environment in which it operates, six chapters examine R&D efforts directed at achieving these seven goals. Chapter 3 looks at the prospects for increasing nuclear power output by using conventional fission reactors, fast breeder reactors, and fusion reactors. (The analysis predates the Chernobyl accident, and thus does not consider the possible impact the incident may have on Soviet plans for development of the nuclear power ind u s t r y - a n impact which recent reports suggest may be greater than we had anticipated.) Chapter 4 looks at the prospects for increasing crude oil production, especially through improvements in drilling technology and
enhanced recovery, as well as the prospects for overcoming the difficulties of transporting natural gas from the huge Arctic gas fields. Chapter 5 examines the prospects for making greater use of the abundant but low-quality coal found in Siberia, reviewing Soviet work in such areas as coal gasification, coal liquefaction, and pipeline transport of coal. The sixth, seventh, and eighth chapters address, respectively, technologies aimed at improving the efficiency of energy utilization (primarily through improvements in the generation and transmission of electricity), technologies for using alternative energy sources (such as wind, solar, and geothermal), and models intended to achieve an optimum mix of energy technologies. The book concludes with a short chapter that pulls together many of the ideas raised in the earlier sections and provides an overall assessment--favorable but cautious of the current Soviet energy strategy.
There is an enormous amount of information here. The book is so well organized, however, that the reader is seldom in danger of being overwhelmed.
Energy Research and Development is a long book and a dense one. The authors have been selective: not only have they limited themselves to an examination of research directed at seven specific goals of Soviet energy development, but they have also tried to focus on especially important programs, or those likely to have a significant impact on Soviet energy production or consumption by 1995. Nonetheless, there is an enormous amount of information here. The book is so well organized, however, that the reader is seldom in danger of being overwhelmed. The authors have provided a clear structure for the material they present, and they are careful to
step back frequently from the details to discuss the overall picture. In this way, they help make the book accessible to the different audiences they have i n t e n d e d to address--the Western scientific community, Sovietologists, and, secondarily, " s t u d e n t s of the history of science, administrators of R&D, experts on the problems of bureaucracy, social scientists, and the inquiring layman" (p. xii). Not everyone in these groups, I suspect, will wish to read the entire book, but all should find it well worth dipping into. Whether one is interested in the technical details of particular technologies, the achievements of particular organizations, or general assessments, one will find abundant material here. It is not just that the information is available. What makes the book so valuable is that one can, in fact, easily find the information one seeks. In almost every case, the authors have broken the presentation into sections on general background, technical details, key organizations and individuals, and evaluation. In addition, the~ provide three separate indexes--o: subjects, names, and organizations The book's value as a basic reference work is further enhanced by the sb appendices: one each on the "draf main directions related to energy" fo the Tenth Five-Year Plan (1976-80), th{ Eleventh Five-Year Plan (1981-85), ant selected institutes; one listing the sci entific-problem councils that hav, been set up to coordinate work ol important interbranch problems; on, listing the major Soviet institutes en gaged in energy R&D, their admin istrative affiliations, areas of researcJ activity, and key personnel; and on providing a glossary of key abbrev ations and acronyms.
Energy Research and Development i the USSR is a careful and judiciou look at some of the most importar areas of current energy R&D activit in the Soviet Union. It concludes th~ the strategy being pursued is "c( herent, technically feasible, and ec( nomically rational" (p. 317). Not a of the technologies being pursued aJ equally promising, nor is there ar guarantee that they will be impl. mented quickly or wisely. Thus, fc example, the authors believe that co
Focus on Books
liquefaction, coal gasification, and 1500-kv power lines are unlikely to be commercialized before 1995; that fusion reactors and magnetohydrodynamic power generation are unlikely to be commercialized before 2000, and that pipeline transport of Siberian coal is unlikely to prove economically rational. They point to the danger that the incremental i m p r o v e m e n t s in drilling equipment will fall short of what is needed to handle increasingly difficult exploration and production
conditions, as well as the danger that the tertiary recovery techniques being developed will be used counterproductively. Their overall assessment of Soviet energy R&D, however, is positive. If the leadership is willing to devote enough resources to the energy sector, and if the metallurgy, machine-building and construction ministries do their part (big ifs deliberately addressed only tangentially in this work), then, Kelly, Shaffer, and Thompson argue, the Soviet R&D es-
tablishment should be capable of meeting the demands it faces in the last decade and a half of this century. []
William J. Kelly, Hugh L. Shaffer, and J. Kenneth Thompson, Energy Research and Development in the USSR: Preparations for the Twenty-First Century. Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 1986. 417.pp. $62.50.
87