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Energy use futures
Energy Conr. & M,qmt. Vol. 20, pp. 219 to 282 © Pergamon Press Ltd 1980. Printed in Great Britain
0196-8904/80/1201-0219502.00/0
CHANGING ENERGY USE FUTURES FINDINGS
OF THE SECOND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ENERGY USE MANAGEMENT--ICEUM-II
ON
CRAIG B. SMITH* and ROCCO A. FAZZOLAREt Interdisciplinary Group for Ecology, Development and Energy (EDEN), Los Angeles, California and Paris, France
(Received 23 June 1980) Abstract--It is evident that future worldwide patterns of energy use will be modifications of current ones. The objective of this work is to understand the directions these modifications are taking and to assess opportunities for bringing about beneficial changes and avoiding detrimental ones. The future will see greater deficits of conventional fuels such as oil and gas and the certainty of higher prices. Fuel and electricity prices, already at record highs, are seen to double again in the next 1-2 years. As a consequence of potential scarcity, disruption of supplies and economic pressures, the danger of a major war is greater now than it has been in the past several decades. The problem is compounded by the fact that the public, in general, is not convinced there is a serious problem and is not prepared to take decisive action. The United States--the world's major energy user--plays a pivotal role. The consequences of an ineffective U.S. national energy policy have been that U.S. imports remain high, oil prices stay high, the world economy is less stable and less oil is available for other nations. Commensurately, increased prices for food, industrial products, and transportation are resulting. At this time, changing energy futures is less a problem of technology and more a problem of motivation, values and social awareness. New technology is available for many industrial processes, for heating and cooling buildings, for lighting and agriculture. New technology is urgently needed for energy efficient transportation. Unresolved are the issues of how best to educate and inform the public and to instill new values appropriate for the future. The public, in general, still is not convinced that there is a serious problem and still is not prepared to take decisive actions. New energy resources are widely sought as replacements for conventional ones, especially those which are imported. While these efforts will lead to varying degrees of success, energy use management has been established during the decade of the 1970s as an effective near-term "resource'. It is the most immediate, least risky, cheapest and least environmentally damaging of all the potential options for solving energy problems. National and international policies must be modified to vastly increase the priority given this resource. Energy management Fuel conversion Energy economics Heat recovery Solar energy Government regulations Transportation Building energy use City planning Cogeneration New energy technologies
1. ENERGY USE FUTURES Craig B. Smith and Rocco Fazzolare
Introduction This report summarizes major findings from the
Second International Conference on Energy Use Management (ICEUM-II), held in Los Angeles during International Energy Conservation M o n t h , October 1979. I C E U M - I I is the second in a series of three conferences which are part of an 8-year review of global energy policies the authors have initiated. * Anco Engineers Inc., Santa Monica, CA 90404, U.S.A. "1"University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, U.S.A. Smith C. B. and Fazzolare R. A. Energy Use Management--An Appropriate Technology. A special issue of Energy Conversion Vol. 19, No. 4, 1979.
Following a 2-year planning effort, the first conference was held in Tucson in 1977. It had as its primary purpose assessing the state-of-the-art of energy management as an appropriate technology for reducing global energy problems during the last quarter of the century. M a j o r findings of this week-long meeting have been previously published.:~ The second conference, described in this summary report, focused on the steps required to change global energy futures through more effective policies and more efficient technologies. The third (and final) conference planned for this series is intended to focus on methods a n d obstacles to the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n - - o n a global scale--of more efficient energy use technolo-
219
220
SMITH AND FAZZOLARE: CHANGING ENERGY USE FUTURES
gies with the goal of reducing international tensions and increasing life quality. The main results of these deliberations have been made available worldwide through three mechanisms: O publishing of detailed conference proceedings (available at the time of the international conferences),* • publication of an extensive summary of the main findings of the meetings (such as this document), and • the conference discussions themselves, which provide a vehicle for an interchange of ideas as well as a forum for experts and for the public. It is anticipated that this project will culminate with a position paper outlining the realities of a new global energy future based on increased energy use efficiency. This document will be released in October 1983, commemorating the tenth anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo, and will serve as a planning document for an International Energy Institute we propose to create. It is both interesting and rewarding that this entire effort has been carried out by unpaid volunteers from many countries without the guidance of any particular society or group. Limited and sparse financial support has been received from a variety of public and private sources in many nations. A strenuous effort has been made to insure that the project is open to all responsible viewpoints and does not reflect the biases of a particular nation or culture.
Analysis: changing energy futures The energy future can be changed by efforts in three areas: technology, economics and policy. Changing technology. On a global level there is a strong desire to develop some form of 'inexhaustible' energy source. It is by no means clear whether this is a practical possibility or just another version of the alchemists' dream. Most often considered for this role is solar energy and nuclear fusion; neither is a certain success. However, one thing is clear: to meet all human energy needs from either of these sources will require new technologies, new developments, large investments and will create new and as yet unstudied environmental and social problems. In spite of the many difficulties, the goal of new, inexhaustible and inexpensive energy sources will and should be pursued at some level of effort, because new energy sources will in any event be required to replace those which become depleted and to provide for the needs of a growing world population. * See, for example: Energy Use Management, Proceedings of the International Conference, 1977, edited by R. A. Fazzolare and C. B. Smith, Pergamon Press, New York, and Changing Energy Use Futures, Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Energy Use Management, edited by R. A. Fazzolare and C. B. Smith, Pergamon Press, New York, 1979.
In the nearer term, energy management has a vital role to play. The growing public awareness of the economic benefits derived from increased efficiency, new processes, methods, equipment and reduced waste, is a moving force building momentum. It is not yet fully factored into the plans of any govern ment and may be expected to produce some surprises. In contrast to this picture~ however, the development of near-term alternate energy sources (wind power, solar, geothermal, biomass, etc.) does not appear as bright. Solar energy has made some inroads in space and water heating. However, the acceptance of alternative energy sources on paper appears to be far greater (by the news media and by various activist groups) than by actual consumers and energy users. There are two reasons; economics are still not attractive in many cases and reliability gives cause for concern. But while the total contribution of alternative energy sources in this century may be disproportionately less than the public attention they receive, they still have, nonetheless, an important contribution to make. Aside from new sources of energy, specific technology areas where change is needed or may be expected are as follows. In the design of manufactured products and goods, greater emphasis on designing for recycle and reuse is required. In buildings, it takes a long time to replace the existing stock of structures. Thus, for the near term, emphasis must be placed on developing techniques for retrofitting and renovating existing structures. For new structures, involvement of passive design techniques should start at the foundation and be considered in all aspects. A number of promising techniques are emerging which, when coupled with the construction of thermally 'tighter' buildings in general, will greatly reduce building energy use in the future. There is a major need for improvements in transportation. This is a central problem in many nations, and one technological area which is, until now, almost totally lacking in significant new innovations. A much greater emphasis should be placed on this sector. Here again, the first priority should be given to retrofitting the permanent systems (e.g. making existing transportation modes such as railroads, subways, etc. more energy efficient). Vehicles and systems with shorter economic lives should be redesigned and then replaced. Changing society. Society will and must change the patterns of energy use. It is likely that the next few decades will be as turbulent as those which accompanied the industrial revolution. There is every reason to believe that social change can occur in a satisfying and positive way, if it is anticipated and planned. Undoubtedly a greater danger is to cling to the hope that the status quo---the era of abundant and inexpensive energy---can somehow be maintained by a technological miracle.
SMITH AND FAZZOLARE: CHANGING ENERGY USE FUTURES The mechanisms for social change will probably include: • a growing public awareness of energy importance and cost, • increased self-help activities at the community or grass roots level, • greater emphasis on energy related curricula in schools, • evolutionary changes in lifestyles, particularly housing, transportation, recreation and certain consumer goods, • the gradual emergence of an 'energy ethic', which views energy as a precious, essential global resource. The types of social changes which will occur will vary around the worl d . Some nations will undoubtedly see an increase in energy use as economic growth and untapped resources (or new technology) provide new sources. For some, the changing world energy situation will mean a setting aside of any hopes of reaching levels of energy use comparable to those in the western nations in the past two decades. For the western nations, there will be a certain trend toward belt-tightening and greater energy use efficiency. Some 'frills', no longer affordable, will be abandoned along the way. This is not speculation, since it is clear that these changes have already begun to occur in Europe, Japan, North America and other parts of the world. Citizen action is an urgent need. There is a limit to what governments can do, both in terms of their charters and in terms of what is practically possible. Changing economics. There is an evident link between energy, environment and economics. We must begin to face the fact that money is also a resource which must be conserved. This requires careful attention to questions governed by the law of diminishing returns. Everyone would agree that sulfur must be reduced in power plant emissions. But to what level? It will generally cost ten times as much to remove the last 0.1~o as it did to remove the first 10%--a difference of a factor of one thousand in costeffectiveness. Given this, where should society draw the line? When is it more advisable to shift the money to medical research, or to some other vital social need, for example, rather than attempting to further reduce atmospheric pollutants? More analysts now believe that energy use and economic growth are not inextricably locked together. While there is a relationship between energy and economics, recent study indicates that to some extent they can be decoupled, meaning that some degree of increased energy efficiency--and possibly a considerable degree--will not stifle the economy. Other recent evidence--particularly the increase in
221
U.S. gasoline prices--suggests that there is a much stronger connection between energy price and demand for energy than had been previously thought. This would indicate that rising energy costs will tend to slow fuel consumption to a greater extent than was considered possible. Energy prices may be expected to continue to increase during the decade of the 1980s. Present indications are that most fuels currently in use are priced considerably below their replacement value. Future increases may be expected to occur, not as a percentage of present prices, but rather as a factor, e.g. a doubling or tripling of today's prices. This brings us to a very important challenge: how to respond to these inevitable price increases without depriving the poor. This is a problem which is of concern to both the industrialized and third world "'Energy costs will increase by large factors, not by a few percent" CHAUNCEY STARR*
Electric Power Research Institute U.S.A.
countries, although it is of greater potential importance to the latter. It will take wealth, know how, technological skills and industry to develop alternative energy sources. It is hardly plausible that nations which are currently unable to feed their present populations are going to divert major resources into the construction of more expensive solar energy systems. The modeling of energy economics is a field of considerable activity today. This promises to yield benefits in terms of improved understanding of the factors which influence energy use. However, as is discussed in a later chapter, the sophistication of the models has generally outstripped the quality of the input data. Due to this limitation and the general sensitivity of such models to the assumptions used in the analysis, the use of models is unreliable for 'forecasting' energy futures at the present time. Virtually all models are predicated on ~business as usual'; none, for example, could have incorporated an analysis which would have forecast the Iranian crisis. At best such models could postulate an event such as the change of regime in Iran and then speculate on possible consequences. No one can say what tomorrow's crisis will be, nor can anyone foresee the impact of future technological innovation. Changing policies. At the head of the list we place the need to avoid irreversible actions. It would be irrational at this time to foreclose any options related to energy use or supply, even though obviously they should be ranked and priorities should continue to be reviewed. The criteria for ranking shoold include relative development cost, probability of successful demonstration, and potential long-term health impacts. * Editor's note: The boxed quotations are taken from the transcripts of the ICEUM-II plenary and summary ses- Where feasible, the goal of local or regional 'energy self-sufficiency' should be encouraged. Making the sions, and from the Proceedings.
222
SMITH ANt) FAZZOLARE: CHANGING ENERGY USE FUTURES
best use of local resources wll reduce dependence on imports, could lead to greater efficiency (it takes energy to transport energy) and will encourage the development of indigenous resources.
the oil crisis of 1973 and the subsequent economic shocks which followed in 1978 and 1979 has been the incentive to review global energy policies. This effort has taken three directions:
"Political problems have made implementation of a national policy nearly impossible to date" THE HONORABLEMIKE MCCORMACK U.S. House of Representatives
• Maintain the status quo, i.e. beat the oil cartel. • Energy independence, i.e. find new or alternative domestic energy sources. • Develop more efficient practices and reduce waste, i.e. employ the principles of energy management.
This, in turn, suggests a greater emphasis on community or local level efforts; self-help, education, citizen involvement and participation. Nuclear power appears essential for use in the nearterm, since it is the principal alternative available today to buy time for the development of future energy sources. Since many nations are proceeding with the construction of nuclear power plants, there is a need to adapt policies for managing radioactive wastes, providing better training and licensing of power plant operators and reassuring the public that adequate safety can be guaranteed. There are no major technology issues here--the technology currently exists. What is required are those policy decisions required to implement and safeguard a nuclear fuel cycle which meets all the public's needs: economy, availability of energy, and adequate safety as well as governmental determination to implement the decisions. The developing countries pose special policy issues and require much greater attention than they have received in the past. Too much emphasis has been placed on money, technical assistance and arms, and not enough on development of human resources, institutions, and infrastructure. In general, they want to expand their industrial bases and secure a still greater share of the energy 'pie' for their own citizens. There is much more resistance to fuel conservation and energy management in a country which uses the energy equivalent of 20 gallons of oil per capita per year than in a country with a per capita use of 2000 gallons per year. Efforts should be exerted to provide basic data and models for evaluating long-term environmental effects of various development options. Given the improved understanding we now have of certain air and water pollution problems, it would be inexcusable to see them repeated in developing nations. Finally, the entire world has a strong incentive to develop cooperative efforts and rational policies. No nation can stand by idly while its energy lifeline is cut. Thus, for the first time in the last 30 yr or so, the probability of a new global war has visibly increased. Besides wasting human lives, war is a great waster of energy and resources; it would be ironic if the next one were fought over these very same commodities. Observations
It has been said that out of crises come opportunities. Certainly the major opportunity to spring from
A fourth direction exists, but has so far been avoided for obvious reasons by all but the most resource-poor nations. This is to reduce energy use regardless of the social and economic consequences, i.e. the so-called 'freeze in the dark' strategy. Most knowledgeable experts today no longer consider the first option as viable. The finiteness of conventional energy resources is a fact; it is also a verifiable fact that U.S. domestic production of oil and gasoline peaked and now is in the early stages of a "The struggle of a nation coming to grips with tremendous increases in the price of oil. .." THE HONORABLECESARCALS Minister of Mines and Energy Brazil
slow but steady decline. Higher prices and new attitudes characterize the international marketplace for energy, as the producing countries watch with some amusement the frantic effort of consumers to secure supplies at virtually any price. Prices have risen to such a level that OPEC has lost control and in fact, now seems almost superfluous. Internationally, there is a perception that the United States, as the world's major energy user, is dragging its feet in doing its part to solve the global energy problem. Examples which may be cited include the lack of an effective or cohesive national energy policy, the regulatory morass imposed on new power projects and the bitter in-fighting over various energy sources rather than getting on with solving the problems. The pivotal role of the U.S. should be stressed. The consequence of continued energy waste and failure to develop energy sources in the U.S. means that U.S. imports remain high, the world economy is made less stable and less oil is available for other nations. Every nation is attempting to become 'energy independent' or to at least secure long-term supply commitments. However, given the uneven distribution of energy sources, this will not be a practical alternative for many nations, although any efforts in the direction of development of national resources--such as the use of alcohol as a substitute fuel in Brazil--should be encouraged. At a more fundamental level, what is needed is a new social awareness of the nature and importance of energy use. If all nations could recognize the vital importance of wise energy use to their prosperity and to world peace, and if each population could evolve
SMITH AND FAZZOLARE: CHANGING ENERGY USE FUTURES
223
supplies of solar energy. With such abundant and low-cost supplies many new benefits were made available to mankind. But now a new perception has emerged: this situation can't go on forever. We need to seek to use our intelligence and creativity to find additional low-cost "Enerfy conservation efforts of the U.S. to energy sources, e.g. open new candy stores. Yet we date are inadequate when compared to other should recognize that on a broader scale of human IEA Countries" perspectives this was an unusual occurrence and may PETER KELLY not happen again. It would seem prudent than t o do International Energy Agency two things in parallel. First, to seek new energy This is less of a revolutionary concept than it might sources, as is being done. Second, to begin making seem. What it really involves is the recognition that plans for balancing energy needs against a more the advent of cheap and abundant fossil fuels was a reasonable evaluation of supplies which can be made strikingly singular event in human affairs. For all available conveniently without damaging the ability prior human history, mankind survived by maintain- of the planet to house and feed its population. This ing a careful balance between energy use and the latter approach need not be a step back in time, if available energy resources from plants, wind and sun. properly done. But without planning and long-term With the discovery of first coal and then petroleum, effort on the part of all nations, it is likely that events will simply overtake us and the needed readjustment the door to the candy store was flung open. It then became possible to have an almost profli- will be carried across the earth by four grim horsegate use of energy, by drawing down on these stored m e n .
the most efficient practices consistent with its own climate, culture, geography, locally available building materials, etc. tension throughout the world could be reduced.
2. ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND" STRATEGIES AND ALTERNATIVES FOR ENERGY MANAGEMENT James L. Dyer and Gil Melese-d'Hospital California State University and General Atomic
Introduction
Strategies and alternatives for energy management represent a coupling between engineering and economics and address the issue of where the world is moving, in terms of energy, and what means might be "'The lEA established oil import quotas; these have already been overtaken by recent events and are no longer valid"
PETER KELLY International Energy Agency used to get there. Implicit in these questions is the assumption that a detailed understanding exists of where the world is in its energy consumption patterns and what trends have emerged in the last few years in these patterns. The long-term, world-wide goal of developing an acceptable, renewable, or essentially inexhaustible source of primary energy is clear. Given that this might be possible in 20-50 yr, the focus in this analysis is the supply and management of energy during the next 20 yr. Before dealing with the more detailed aspects of the topic, a few underlying and universal factors are worthwhile discussing. First, the problems of energy supply and manage-
ment are not purely technical ones. They are also, obviously, political and social concerns. The heightening of international tensions between energy exporting and importing nations is a clear and dangerous path that could lead to global conflict. This causes a thrust by regions, individual nations or national blocks to acquire for themselves a secure source of "'The Pacific Northwest power outlook is bleak after 1983"
STERLINGMUNRO Bonneville Power Administration U.S.A. energy. This principle can be extended to food and other necessary commodities. An example of this is the actions of the State of Minnesota in studying energy demands and sources. The State imports 98.8% of its energy. Clearly, with its cold climate, any curtailment of energy in the winter would have dire results. Hence, the need for development of regional renewable sources such as solar or a secure fossil energy source is imperative. The second point to be mentioned involves human nature. Humans are by nature, problem solvers. Socially, they tend to resist changes that upset historic patterns of problem solving. Villages in less developed
0196-8904/80/1201-0219502.00/0
CHANGING ENERGY USE FUTURES FINDINGS
OF THE SECOND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ENERGY USE MANAGEMENT--ICEUM-II
ON
CRAIG B. SMITH* and ROCCO A. FAZZOLAREt Interdisciplinary Group for Ecology, Development and Energy (EDEN), Los Angeles, California and Paris, France
(Received 23 June 1980) Abstract--It is evident that future worldwide patterns of energy use will be modifications of current ones. The objective of this work is to understand the directions these modifications are taking and to assess opportunities for bringing about beneficial changes and avoiding detrimental ones. The future will see greater deficits of conventional fuels such as oil and gas and the certainty of higher prices. Fuel and electricity prices, already at record highs, are seen to double again in the next 1-2 years. As a consequence of potential scarcity, disruption of supplies and economic pressures, the danger of a major war is greater now than it has been in the past several decades. The problem is compounded by the fact that the public, in general, is not convinced there is a serious problem and is not prepared to take decisive action. The United States--the world's major energy user--plays a pivotal role. The consequences of an ineffective U.S. national energy policy have been that U.S. imports remain high, oil prices stay high, the world economy is less stable and less oil is available for other nations. Commensurately, increased prices for food, industrial products, and transportation are resulting. At this time, changing energy futures is less a problem of technology and more a problem of motivation, values and social awareness. New technology is available for many industrial processes, for heating and cooling buildings, for lighting and agriculture. New technology is urgently needed for energy efficient transportation. Unresolved are the issues of how best to educate and inform the public and to instill new values appropriate for the future. The public, in general, still is not convinced that there is a serious problem and still is not prepared to take decisive actions. New energy resources are widely sought as replacements for conventional ones, especially those which are imported. While these efforts will lead to varying degrees of success, energy use management has been established during the decade of the 1970s as an effective near-term "resource'. It is the most immediate, least risky, cheapest and least environmentally damaging of all the potential options for solving energy problems. National and international policies must be modified to vastly increase the priority given this resource. Energy management Fuel conversion Energy economics Heat recovery Solar energy Government regulations Transportation Building energy use City planning Cogeneration New energy technologies
1. ENERGY USE FUTURES Craig B. Smith and Rocco Fazzolare
Introduction This report summarizes major findings from the
Second International Conference on Energy Use Management (ICEUM-II), held in Los Angeles during International Energy Conservation M o n t h , October 1979. I C E U M - I I is the second in a series of three conferences which are part of an 8-year review of global energy policies the authors have initiated. * Anco Engineers Inc., Santa Monica, CA 90404, U.S.A. "1"University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, U.S.A. Smith C. B. and Fazzolare R. A. Energy Use Management--An Appropriate Technology. A special issue of Energy Conversion Vol. 19, No. 4, 1979.
Following a 2-year planning effort, the first conference was held in Tucson in 1977. It had as its primary purpose assessing the state-of-the-art of energy management as an appropriate technology for reducing global energy problems during the last quarter of the century. M a j o r findings of this week-long meeting have been previously published.:~ The second conference, described in this summary report, focused on the steps required to change global energy futures through more effective policies and more efficient technologies. The third (and final) conference planned for this series is intended to focus on methods a n d obstacles to the i m p l e m e n t a t i o n - - o n a global scale--of more efficient energy use technolo-
219
220
SMITH AND FAZZOLARE: CHANGING ENERGY USE FUTURES
gies with the goal of reducing international tensions and increasing life quality. The main results of these deliberations have been made available worldwide through three mechanisms: O publishing of detailed conference proceedings (available at the time of the international conferences),* • publication of an extensive summary of the main findings of the meetings (such as this document), and • the conference discussions themselves, which provide a vehicle for an interchange of ideas as well as a forum for experts and for the public. It is anticipated that this project will culminate with a position paper outlining the realities of a new global energy future based on increased energy use efficiency. This document will be released in October 1983, commemorating the tenth anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo, and will serve as a planning document for an International Energy Institute we propose to create. It is both interesting and rewarding that this entire effort has been carried out by unpaid volunteers from many countries without the guidance of any particular society or group. Limited and sparse financial support has been received from a variety of public and private sources in many nations. A strenuous effort has been made to insure that the project is open to all responsible viewpoints and does not reflect the biases of a particular nation or culture.
Analysis: changing energy futures The energy future can be changed by efforts in three areas: technology, economics and policy. Changing technology. On a global level there is a strong desire to develop some form of 'inexhaustible' energy source. It is by no means clear whether this is a practical possibility or just another version of the alchemists' dream. Most often considered for this role is solar energy and nuclear fusion; neither is a certain success. However, one thing is clear: to meet all human energy needs from either of these sources will require new technologies, new developments, large investments and will create new and as yet unstudied environmental and social problems. In spite of the many difficulties, the goal of new, inexhaustible and inexpensive energy sources will and should be pursued at some level of effort, because new energy sources will in any event be required to replace those which become depleted and to provide for the needs of a growing world population. * See, for example: Energy Use Management, Proceedings of the International Conference, 1977, edited by R. A. Fazzolare and C. B. Smith, Pergamon Press, New York, and Changing Energy Use Futures, Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Energy Use Management, edited by R. A. Fazzolare and C. B. Smith, Pergamon Press, New York, 1979.
In the nearer term, energy management has a vital role to play. The growing public awareness of the economic benefits derived from increased efficiency, new processes, methods, equipment and reduced waste, is a moving force building momentum. It is not yet fully factored into the plans of any govern ment and may be expected to produce some surprises. In contrast to this picture~ however, the development of near-term alternate energy sources (wind power, solar, geothermal, biomass, etc.) does not appear as bright. Solar energy has made some inroads in space and water heating. However, the acceptance of alternative energy sources on paper appears to be far greater (by the news media and by various activist groups) than by actual consumers and energy users. There are two reasons; economics are still not attractive in many cases and reliability gives cause for concern. But while the total contribution of alternative energy sources in this century may be disproportionately less than the public attention they receive, they still have, nonetheless, an important contribution to make. Aside from new sources of energy, specific technology areas where change is needed or may be expected are as follows. In the design of manufactured products and goods, greater emphasis on designing for recycle and reuse is required. In buildings, it takes a long time to replace the existing stock of structures. Thus, for the near term, emphasis must be placed on developing techniques for retrofitting and renovating existing structures. For new structures, involvement of passive design techniques should start at the foundation and be considered in all aspects. A number of promising techniques are emerging which, when coupled with the construction of thermally 'tighter' buildings in general, will greatly reduce building energy use in the future. There is a major need for improvements in transportation. This is a central problem in many nations, and one technological area which is, until now, almost totally lacking in significant new innovations. A much greater emphasis should be placed on this sector. Here again, the first priority should be given to retrofitting the permanent systems (e.g. making existing transportation modes such as railroads, subways, etc. more energy efficient). Vehicles and systems with shorter economic lives should be redesigned and then replaced. Changing society. Society will and must change the patterns of energy use. It is likely that the next few decades will be as turbulent as those which accompanied the industrial revolution. There is every reason to believe that social change can occur in a satisfying and positive way, if it is anticipated and planned. Undoubtedly a greater danger is to cling to the hope that the status quo---the era of abundant and inexpensive energy---can somehow be maintained by a technological miracle.
SMITH AND FAZZOLARE: CHANGING ENERGY USE FUTURES The mechanisms for social change will probably include: • a growing public awareness of energy importance and cost, • increased self-help activities at the community or grass roots level, • greater emphasis on energy related curricula in schools, • evolutionary changes in lifestyles, particularly housing, transportation, recreation and certain consumer goods, • the gradual emergence of an 'energy ethic', which views energy as a precious, essential global resource. The types of social changes which will occur will vary around the worl d . Some nations will undoubtedly see an increase in energy use as economic growth and untapped resources (or new technology) provide new sources. For some, the changing world energy situation will mean a setting aside of any hopes of reaching levels of energy use comparable to those in the western nations in the past two decades. For the western nations, there will be a certain trend toward belt-tightening and greater energy use efficiency. Some 'frills', no longer affordable, will be abandoned along the way. This is not speculation, since it is clear that these changes have already begun to occur in Europe, Japan, North America and other parts of the world. Citizen action is an urgent need. There is a limit to what governments can do, both in terms of their charters and in terms of what is practically possible. Changing economics. There is an evident link between energy, environment and economics. We must begin to face the fact that money is also a resource which must be conserved. This requires careful attention to questions governed by the law of diminishing returns. Everyone would agree that sulfur must be reduced in power plant emissions. But to what level? It will generally cost ten times as much to remove the last 0.1~o as it did to remove the first 10%--a difference of a factor of one thousand in costeffectiveness. Given this, where should society draw the line? When is it more advisable to shift the money to medical research, or to some other vital social need, for example, rather than attempting to further reduce atmospheric pollutants? More analysts now believe that energy use and economic growth are not inextricably locked together. While there is a relationship between energy and economics, recent study indicates that to some extent they can be decoupled, meaning that some degree of increased energy efficiency--and possibly a considerable degree--will not stifle the economy. Other recent evidence--particularly the increase in
221
U.S. gasoline prices--suggests that there is a much stronger connection between energy price and demand for energy than had been previously thought. This would indicate that rising energy costs will tend to slow fuel consumption to a greater extent than was considered possible. Energy prices may be expected to continue to increase during the decade of the 1980s. Present indications are that most fuels currently in use are priced considerably below their replacement value. Future increases may be expected to occur, not as a percentage of present prices, but rather as a factor, e.g. a doubling or tripling of today's prices. This brings us to a very important challenge: how to respond to these inevitable price increases without depriving the poor. This is a problem which is of concern to both the industrialized and third world "'Energy costs will increase by large factors, not by a few percent" CHAUNCEY STARR*
Electric Power Research Institute U.S.A.
countries, although it is of greater potential importance to the latter. It will take wealth, know how, technological skills and industry to develop alternative energy sources. It is hardly plausible that nations which are currently unable to feed their present populations are going to divert major resources into the construction of more expensive solar energy systems. The modeling of energy economics is a field of considerable activity today. This promises to yield benefits in terms of improved understanding of the factors which influence energy use. However, as is discussed in a later chapter, the sophistication of the models has generally outstripped the quality of the input data. Due to this limitation and the general sensitivity of such models to the assumptions used in the analysis, the use of models is unreliable for 'forecasting' energy futures at the present time. Virtually all models are predicated on ~business as usual'; none, for example, could have incorporated an analysis which would have forecast the Iranian crisis. At best such models could postulate an event such as the change of regime in Iran and then speculate on possible consequences. No one can say what tomorrow's crisis will be, nor can anyone foresee the impact of future technological innovation. Changing policies. At the head of the list we place the need to avoid irreversible actions. It would be irrational at this time to foreclose any options related to energy use or supply, even though obviously they should be ranked and priorities should continue to be reviewed. The criteria for ranking shoold include relative development cost, probability of successful demonstration, and potential long-term health impacts. * Editor's note: The boxed quotations are taken from the transcripts of the ICEUM-II plenary and summary ses- Where feasible, the goal of local or regional 'energy self-sufficiency' should be encouraged. Making the sions, and from the Proceedings.
222
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best use of local resources wll reduce dependence on imports, could lead to greater efficiency (it takes energy to transport energy) and will encourage the development of indigenous resources.
the oil crisis of 1973 and the subsequent economic shocks which followed in 1978 and 1979 has been the incentive to review global energy policies. This effort has taken three directions:
"Political problems have made implementation of a national policy nearly impossible to date" THE HONORABLEMIKE MCCORMACK U.S. House of Representatives
• Maintain the status quo, i.e. beat the oil cartel. • Energy independence, i.e. find new or alternative domestic energy sources. • Develop more efficient practices and reduce waste, i.e. employ the principles of energy management.
This, in turn, suggests a greater emphasis on community or local level efforts; self-help, education, citizen involvement and participation. Nuclear power appears essential for use in the nearterm, since it is the principal alternative available today to buy time for the development of future energy sources. Since many nations are proceeding with the construction of nuclear power plants, there is a need to adapt policies for managing radioactive wastes, providing better training and licensing of power plant operators and reassuring the public that adequate safety can be guaranteed. There are no major technology issues here--the technology currently exists. What is required are those policy decisions required to implement and safeguard a nuclear fuel cycle which meets all the public's needs: economy, availability of energy, and adequate safety as well as governmental determination to implement the decisions. The developing countries pose special policy issues and require much greater attention than they have received in the past. Too much emphasis has been placed on money, technical assistance and arms, and not enough on development of human resources, institutions, and infrastructure. In general, they want to expand their industrial bases and secure a still greater share of the energy 'pie' for their own citizens. There is much more resistance to fuel conservation and energy management in a country which uses the energy equivalent of 20 gallons of oil per capita per year than in a country with a per capita use of 2000 gallons per year. Efforts should be exerted to provide basic data and models for evaluating long-term environmental effects of various development options. Given the improved understanding we now have of certain air and water pollution problems, it would be inexcusable to see them repeated in developing nations. Finally, the entire world has a strong incentive to develop cooperative efforts and rational policies. No nation can stand by idly while its energy lifeline is cut. Thus, for the first time in the last 30 yr or so, the probability of a new global war has visibly increased. Besides wasting human lives, war is a great waster of energy and resources; it would be ironic if the next one were fought over these very same commodities. Observations
It has been said that out of crises come opportunities. Certainly the major opportunity to spring from
A fourth direction exists, but has so far been avoided for obvious reasons by all but the most resource-poor nations. This is to reduce energy use regardless of the social and economic consequences, i.e. the so-called 'freeze in the dark' strategy. Most knowledgeable experts today no longer consider the first option as viable. The finiteness of conventional energy resources is a fact; it is also a verifiable fact that U.S. domestic production of oil and gasoline peaked and now is in the early stages of a "The struggle of a nation coming to grips with tremendous increases in the price of oil. .." THE HONORABLECESARCALS Minister of Mines and Energy Brazil
slow but steady decline. Higher prices and new attitudes characterize the international marketplace for energy, as the producing countries watch with some amusement the frantic effort of consumers to secure supplies at virtually any price. Prices have risen to such a level that OPEC has lost control and in fact, now seems almost superfluous. Internationally, there is a perception that the United States, as the world's major energy user, is dragging its feet in doing its part to solve the global energy problem. Examples which may be cited include the lack of an effective or cohesive national energy policy, the regulatory morass imposed on new power projects and the bitter in-fighting over various energy sources rather than getting on with solving the problems. The pivotal role of the U.S. should be stressed. The consequence of continued energy waste and failure to develop energy sources in the U.S. means that U.S. imports remain high, the world economy is made less stable and less oil is available for other nations. Every nation is attempting to become 'energy independent' or to at least secure long-term supply commitments. However, given the uneven distribution of energy sources, this will not be a practical alternative for many nations, although any efforts in the direction of development of national resources--such as the use of alcohol as a substitute fuel in Brazil--should be encouraged. At a more fundamental level, what is needed is a new social awareness of the nature and importance of energy use. If all nations could recognize the vital importance of wise energy use to their prosperity and to world peace, and if each population could evolve
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supplies of solar energy. With such abundant and low-cost supplies many new benefits were made available to mankind. But now a new perception has emerged: this situation can't go on forever. We need to seek to use our intelligence and creativity to find additional low-cost "Enerfy conservation efforts of the U.S. to energy sources, e.g. open new candy stores. Yet we date are inadequate when compared to other should recognize that on a broader scale of human IEA Countries" perspectives this was an unusual occurrence and may PETER KELLY not happen again. It would seem prudent than t o do International Energy Agency two things in parallel. First, to seek new energy This is less of a revolutionary concept than it might sources, as is being done. Second, to begin making seem. What it really involves is the recognition that plans for balancing energy needs against a more the advent of cheap and abundant fossil fuels was a reasonable evaluation of supplies which can be made strikingly singular event in human affairs. For all available conveniently without damaging the ability prior human history, mankind survived by maintain- of the planet to house and feed its population. This ing a careful balance between energy use and the latter approach need not be a step back in time, if available energy resources from plants, wind and sun. properly done. But without planning and long-term With the discovery of first coal and then petroleum, effort on the part of all nations, it is likely that events will simply overtake us and the needed readjustment the door to the candy store was flung open. It then became possible to have an almost profli- will be carried across the earth by four grim horsegate use of energy, by drawing down on these stored m e n .
the most efficient practices consistent with its own climate, culture, geography, locally available building materials, etc. tension throughout the world could be reduced.
2. ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND" STRATEGIES AND ALTERNATIVES FOR ENERGY MANAGEMENT James L. Dyer and Gil Melese-d'Hospital California State University and General Atomic
Introduction
Strategies and alternatives for energy management represent a coupling between engineering and economics and address the issue of where the world is moving, in terms of energy, and what means might be "'The lEA established oil import quotas; these have already been overtaken by recent events and are no longer valid"
PETER KELLY International Energy Agency used to get there. Implicit in these questions is the assumption that a detailed understanding exists of where the world is in its energy consumption patterns and what trends have emerged in the last few years in these patterns. The long-term, world-wide goal of developing an acceptable, renewable, or essentially inexhaustible source of primary energy is clear. Given that this might be possible in 20-50 yr, the focus in this analysis is the supply and management of energy during the next 20 yr. Before dealing with the more detailed aspects of the topic, a few underlying and universal factors are worthwhile discussing. First, the problems of energy supply and manage-
ment are not purely technical ones. They are also, obviously, political and social concerns. The heightening of international tensions between energy exporting and importing nations is a clear and dangerous path that could lead to global conflict. This causes a thrust by regions, individual nations or national blocks to acquire for themselves a secure source of "'The Pacific Northwest power outlook is bleak after 1983"
STERLINGMUNRO Bonneville Power Administration U.S.A. energy. This principle can be extended to food and other necessary commodities. An example of this is the actions of the State of Minnesota in studying energy demands and sources. The State imports 98.8% of its energy. Clearly, with its cold climate, any curtailment of energy in the winter would have dire results. Hence, the need for development of regional renewable sources such as solar or a secure fossil energy source is imperative. The second point to be mentioned involves human nature. Humans are by nature, problem solvers. Socially, they tend to resist changes that upset historic patterns of problem solving. Villages in less developed