- Email: [email protected]
Entitlements and the Chinese famine
Letters to the Editor
cruel in the cities, although most victims may have been those who were not in employment, but this should be no comfort to the ‘entitlement school’. Kane draws attention, repeatedly, to the existence of the urban food crisis which was aggravated by some peasants hastily driting into the cities hoping that food might be more plentifuLIs Among them were the Kaixian’gong wives who left to beg, and others from cotton-producing areas of the north went to the south with a view to exchanging their clothes for grain. Another point is that the arguments presented by my critics rely heavily on the ‘information’ provided by the Chinese government, which is not to be trusted. Indeed, there are substantial differences between statistics regarding food production, consumption, etc, presented in Riskin’s tables and those reported by the historians.16 My arguments are based upon accounts of events given by independent historians who, in my opinion, are much more credible reporters than the Chinese government. Sen glorifies the Chinese system, saying that ‘the elimination of starvation in socialist economies - for example in China - seems to have taken place even without a dramatic rise in food availability per head, and indeed, typically the former had preceded the latter. The end of starvation reflects a shift in the entitlement system, both in the form of social security and - more important - through systems of guaranteed employment at wages that provide exchange entitlement adequ-
ate to avoid starvation.“’ Misinformation and false hopes are features of all totalitarian regimes: only the most gullible have faith in what dictators promise and do. Erhun University Northern
Ku/a
of Ulster
Ireland,
UK
‘For recent confirmation, see C. Jiyuan, ‘China’s transfer of the surplus agricultural ed, labour force’, in J.W. Longworth, China’s Rural Development Miracle, University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 1989. ‘M. Blecher, China - Politics, Economics and Research, Pinter, London, UK, 1986. 3B. Brugger, China: Liberation and Transformation. 7942-62. Croom Helm. London. UK, 1981: 4F. Schurmann and 0. Schell, Communist China, China Readings 3. Penquin, Harmondsworth, UK, 19673. 5Brugger, op cif, Ref 3. %ee Jiyuan, op cif, Ref 1. ‘J. Chkneaux, China: The People’s Republic. 7949-1976. Harvester, Brighton. UK, 1979. ‘P. Kane, Famine in China, 795+67, Demographic and Social Implications, Macmillian, London, UK, 1988. ‘/bid, p 77. “/bid. “Jiyuan, op tit, Ref 1. “Kane, op tit, Ref 8. 13D. Rurkheng, ‘Advancing amidst reform’. in D.W. Lonaworth. ed. China’s Rural development -Miracle, University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 1989. 14D.J. Dywer, China Now, Longman, London, UK, 1974; Chesneaux, op tit, Ref 7; Brugger, op tit, Ref 3. 15Kane, op tit, Ref 8. “See the references in my original article as well as those cited here. 17A Sen, Poverty and Famines, Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK, 1981.
Entitlements and the Chinese famine I was reluctant to reply to Erhun Kula’s critique’ of my attempts at analysing famines,2 partly because it is difficult to respond to data-free empirical assertions. Kula presents no statistics, nor any reference to serious statistical analysis, in favour of his general conclusion that ‘The Chinese famine of 1959-61 offers powerful evidence to contradict Sen’s entitlement approach as it took most of its toll in areas of high incomes, ie the cities’.” Indeed, all the demographic studies of
FOOD POLICY June 1990
famine casualties suggest a much higher mortality in the rural areas than in the cities.4 But my reluctance was also partly caused by the recognition that it is hard to keep one’s cool in replying to an attack that relies so heavily on straightforward distortion. .4s it happens, Terry Cannon and Carl Riskin have shown the empirical falsity and conceptual muddles underlying Kula’s claims5 I have also seen Kula’s response to Cannon and Riskin, and the fact that neither Cannon’s
nor Riskin’s points have been at all met.’ Perhaps because of his failure to provide an adequate response to Cannon’s and Riskin’s arguments, Kula elaborates on his vilification of me, characterizing me as someone who ‘glorifies the Chinese system’ and who falls in the category of ‘the most gullible [who] have faith in what dictators promise and do’. Since this diagnosis is based on a complete distortion of my views and published writings on the Chinese famine, I believe I should reply at least to this part of Kula’s attack after all.
Democracy and distortions The mortality data relating to the period of the Chinese famine of 195% 61 became available only in the early 198Os, and serious demographic analysis of mortality identifying a major famine during 1958-61 began appearing in the West during 1981-82.’ These empirical data were not available at the time I completed my book, Poverty and Famines, published in 1981. Far from ignoring the evidence of the famine as it emerged, I believe I was among the earliest to attempt a political economic analysis of the causation of the Chinese famine, emphasizing both the enormity of the famine and the monumental political and economic failure underlying it. My analyses of the Chinese famine were published during 1982-84,’ and were commented on extensively.” Rather than having ‘faith in what dictators promise and do’, I have argued that famine was possible in China in a way it was not in India precisely because of the lack of democratic opposition and free newspapers in China. My claim that democracy plays a crucial role in the elimination of famines has been further investigated with evidence from sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.“’ In trying to establish my alleged gullibility and faith in dictatorship, Kula chooses to ignore all these publications altogether, quoting each time precisely the same remark (on the Chinese general success in combating hunger) from my earlier monograph Poverty and Famines (1981). Furthermore, giving the impression that I
261
Letters to the Editor had ignored the Chinese famine even after reliable empirical evidence regarding the famine became available from the early 1980s, Kula misattributed in his original article the remark picked from my 1981 book to a paper of mine published as late as 1986.” No statement remotely like the one attributed was made in my 1986 paper that Kula cited.
Famine causality and entitlements On the analysis of the Chinese famine itself, Dr Kula is hardly more reliable. He provides no statistics to question Riskin’s rejection - based on overwhelming empirical evidence - of Kula’s assertion that the famine ‘took its toll mostly in the cities’,12 but he continues to insist that he was right.‘j Kula also seems unable to see that his concession that ‘those who perished of hunger in the urban districts may have been the poor and the unemployed’ points directly to the relevance of entitlement failure in the genesis of starvation. I end
I4
with a general point on the entitlement approach. As was explained in some detail in Poverty und Famines, a failure of entitlement can result from a variety of causal processes, which may or may not include a decline in food supply. The constrast between the ‘entitlement view’ and the ‘food availability view’ of famine causation arises primarily from the possibility that famines muy quite easily result from causal factors other than food availability decline. The contrast does not lie in any supposed claim in the entitlement view that famines cunnot result from, or be causally associated with, severe declines in food availability - no such claim has ever been made in any of my writings on this subject. Kula’s remark that ‘according to Sen the decline in entitlements rather than decline in food supply is the most crucial factor in the analysis of famines’ makes a false contrast.” In some of the famines studied in my Poverty und Famines there was no substantial food availability decline (eg in the Bengal famine of 1943, the Ethiopian famine of 1973, the Bangladesh famine of 1974),
whereas in others, as I discussed, there clearly was a decline of food availability (eg in the Sahel famines of the early 1970s the Ethiopian famine of 1974).lh The role of food availability in the determination of entitlements of vulnerable groups cannot be ignored in entitlement analysis. The entitlement view incorporates both demand and supply factors. A satisfactory entitlement analysis of any famine (including the Chinese famine of 195861) would obviously be impossible without taking adequate note of the changes, if any, in food availability (eg the enormous decline in food output in China due to the debacle of the Great Leap Forward); as I have discussed.” But ‘even in those cases in which a famine i.7 accompanied by a reduction in the amount of food available per head, the causal mechanism precipitating starvation has to bring in many variables other than the general availability of food’.‘* In analysing the extent and the distribution of starvation, we have to look beyond output data - at incomes, employments, wages, prices and other variables that govern the entitlements of specific groups. A convincing entitlement analysis must include the causal influences of variables (including output changes, if any) on the entitlements of all vulnerable groups. These variables are also influenced by public policies (eg proemployment creation. curement, taxes, subsidies, incentives, rationing), and thus also by the nature of the government and by the presence or absence of public pressure, accountability and opposition. Entitlement studies have to include, inter alia, output information as well as analyses of politics and political economy.“’ Given the nature of the concept of entitlement, this broad coverage of entitlement analysis must not come as a surprise. Amartya Lamont
Sen
University
Professor
Harvard
University
Cambridge,
MA,
USA
’ E. Kula, ‘Politics, economics, agriculture and famine: the Chinese case’, Food PO/icy, Vol 14, No 1, Feb 1989, pp 13-16.
’ A.K. Sen, Poverty and Famines, Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK, 1981. 3 Kula, op tit, Ref 1, p 16. 4 See, for example, B. Ashton, K. Hill, A. Piazza and R. Zeitz. ‘Famine in China, 1958-61’, Population and Development Review, Vol 10, No 4, 1984; Xizhe Peng, ‘Demographic consequences of the Great Leap Forward’, Population and Development Review, Vol 13, No 4, 1987. See also the Chinese sources cited in Carl Riskin’s letter in this issue of Food Policy. ‘T. Cannon, ‘Chinese famine: an intemperate attack’, Food Policy, Vol 15, No 3, June 1990, pp 257-258; C. Riskin, ‘Facts support Sen’, Food Policy, Vol 15, No 3, June 1990, pp 258-259. ’ E. Kula, ‘Author’s reply’, Food Policy, Vol 15, No 3, June 1990, pp 259261. ’ Among the early publications in Chinese were Zhu Zhengzhi, in Jingji Kexue, 1980, and Sun Yefang, in Jingji Guanli, 1981. Among the early Western analyses were A.J. Coale, ‘Population trends, population policy and population studies in China’, Population and Development Review, Vol 7, 1981, and J. Aird, ‘Population studies and population policy in China’, Population and Development Review, Vol 8, 1982. a A.K. Sen, ‘How is India doing?‘, New York Review of Books, Vol 29, Christmas number, 1982; ‘Food battles: conflict in the access to food’, Coromandel Lecture, New Delhi, 1982, published in Mainstream, 8 January 1983; ‘Development: which way now?‘, Economic Journal. Vol 93, 1983: Resources, Values and Development, Harvard University Press, Oxford, Blackwell and Cambridge, MA, 1984. ‘See, for example, Ashok Mitra, K.N. Raj and Benedict Stavis, ‘An exchange’, New York Review of Books, Vol 30. 3 March 1983; T.P. Bernstein, ‘Starving to death in China’, New York Review of Books, Vol 30, 6 June 1983; B. Ashton, et a/, op tit, Ref 4. ” On this see my Hunger and Entitlement, World Institute of Development Economics Research, Helsinki, 1987; ‘Freedom of choice: concept and content’, European Economic Review. Vol 32. 1988; and ‘Food and freedom’, World Development, Vol 17, 1989, and my joint book with Jean Dreze, Hunger and Public Action, Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK, 1990. See also N. Ram, ‘An independent press and anti-hunger strategies: the Indian experience’, in J. Dreze and A. Sen, eds, The Political Economy of Hunger, Clarendon Press, UK, forthcoming. ” A.K. Sen, ‘The causes of famine: a reply’, Food Policy, Vol 11, No 2, May 1986, Kula’s misquotation, op tit, Ref 1, pp 13-14. ” Kula, op tit, Ref 1, p 13. l3 Kula continues to ignore serious demographic studies of the Chinese famine by Ashton ef at (op tit, Ref 4), Peng (op tit, Ref 4) and others (op tit, Ref 7). He cites Penny Kane, Famine in China, 1959-61, Macmillan, London, UK, 1988, but ignores her observations damaging to his thesis,
FOOD POLICY June 1990
Leners to the EditorlConference eg that ‘the increase in mortality was greater in the rural areas’ (p 91). I4 Kula, op cit. Ref 6, p 259-261. l5 Kula, op tit, Fief 6. ‘6 Sen, op cif, Ref 2, Chapters 6-9. “A.K. Sen, ‘Development: which way now?‘, Economic Journal, Voi 93, 1983;
Conference
Sen and DrBze, op tit, Ref 10. ‘a Sen, op cif, Ref 2, p 154. ” ibid, Chapters 5-10; A.K. Sen, Resources, Values and Development, Harvard University Press, Oxford, Blackwell and Cambridge, MA, Essays 15,16,18,19 and 20.
reports
Still dealing with preliminaries
gion also face severe budgetary constraints. Farm incomes can only be increased, where productivity is stagnant, by increasing farm commodity prices. Urban consumers, many of whom also face growing problems of food insecurity, are reluctant to pay ever higher prices for staples. Governments are finding it increasingly difficult to meet the demands of both groups. Food insecurity in the region derives from a range of causes including:
l Fifth Annual Conference on Food Security Research in Southern Africa, jointly sponsored by the Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, University of Zimbabwe, the Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University, and the SADCC Food Security Technical and Administration Unit, Hafare, ~~~a~we, 16-18 October 1989
l 0
Despite
the fact that the SADCC produces sufficient food staples for its own needs, there remain considerable problems in ensuring food security for the people of the region. John Dhliwayo, of the SADCC Food Security Technical and Administration Unit, indicated that five of the nine SADCC countries faced continuing food deficits and, more importantly for this conference, that severe problems of food insecurity remained at the household level amongst certain vulnerable population groups. In addition, food-deficit countries within SADCC had, over the past few years, been unable to import their food needs due to economic constraints, while surplus countries had managed to export less than 30% of their excess grain (some of which was exported outside the region). The theme of the meeting was ‘Food security in Southern Africa: issues and challenges of the 1990s’. As the fifth in a series of annual meetings, and with several of the researchers having participated in all the previous meetings, it was reasonable to expect that some substantive research findings were to be presented at the meeting. Disappointing features of the meeting were both the dearth of such papers and the absence of consolidation of research presented at previous meetings. Too many papers were either preliminary findings or reviews of readily available secondary data. region’
FOOD POLICY June
1990
The strength of the meeting was the increased regional participation, as active researchers, of economists from throughout the region. The issues for food security researchers in the region have changed somewhat in the period since the collaborative research project between Michigan State University and the University of Zimbabwe (through which the meeting was supported) was established. The extended drought of the early 1980s was successfully weathered without evidence of widespread famine (except in those parts of the region affected by war). Nevertheless, papers presented at previous meetings had shown that even in the higherpotential areas there were significant groups who were unable to produce enough to feed themselves through the year. This trend was confirmed further by a paper presented at this meeting by ~udimu, Chopak. Chigume, Govereh and Bernsten reporting survey data from two low-rainfall areas in Zimbabwe.
Insecurity A paper by Louis Msukwa on malnutrition in Malwai most graphically analysed the problems faced by many low-income rural families. While facing this continuing problem of malnutrition and intraseasonal food insecurity, particularly amongst low-income rural households, governments in the re-
reporrs
low productivity levels as a result of the lack of improved varieties, services and/or inputs and drought, disease (both agricultural and human) and pests; war and civil disorder; poor farm prices.
The discussions and papers at the meeting suggested that policy makers were well aware of the third problem, and in many countries in the region active steps were being taken to improve farm-level prices.’ With respect to the second issue - a major problem in at least two SADCC countries there was little discussion, although the problem of South African destabilization was mentioned by several authors. Firmino Mucavele gave a short but informative paper on the effects of economic rehabilitation on grain markets in Maputo, but without direct reference to the war in Mozambique. Given the theme of the conference, and the emerging trend towards peace in Southern Africa, it was disappointing to find that the issues of reviving the war-torn economies of Mozambique and Angola were ignored. Both countries have enormous agricultural potential and both face critical food problems that will persist into the 1990s. It was also frustrating to find little progress had been made in improving productivity. Many of the papers referred to the poor productivity of smai~ho~ders in much of the region and to the need to introduce improved technologies. Only two papers specifically addressed the interactions between policy and technology - and the time permitted did not allow adequate discussion of this critical issue.
263
cruel in the cities, although most victims may have been those who were not in employment, but this should be no comfort to the ‘entitlement school’. Kane draws attention, repeatedly, to the existence of the urban food crisis which was aggravated by some peasants hastily driting into the cities hoping that food might be more plentifuLIs Among them were the Kaixian’gong wives who left to beg, and others from cotton-producing areas of the north went to the south with a view to exchanging their clothes for grain. Another point is that the arguments presented by my critics rely heavily on the ‘information’ provided by the Chinese government, which is not to be trusted. Indeed, there are substantial differences between statistics regarding food production, consumption, etc, presented in Riskin’s tables and those reported by the historians.16 My arguments are based upon accounts of events given by independent historians who, in my opinion, are much more credible reporters than the Chinese government. Sen glorifies the Chinese system, saying that ‘the elimination of starvation in socialist economies - for example in China - seems to have taken place even without a dramatic rise in food availability per head, and indeed, typically the former had preceded the latter. The end of starvation reflects a shift in the entitlement system, both in the form of social security and - more important - through systems of guaranteed employment at wages that provide exchange entitlement adequ-
ate to avoid starvation.“’ Misinformation and false hopes are features of all totalitarian regimes: only the most gullible have faith in what dictators promise and do. Erhun University Northern
Ku/a
of Ulster
Ireland,
UK
‘For recent confirmation, see C. Jiyuan, ‘China’s transfer of the surplus agricultural ed, labour force’, in J.W. Longworth, China’s Rural Development Miracle, University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 1989. ‘M. Blecher, China - Politics, Economics and Research, Pinter, London, UK, 1986. 3B. Brugger, China: Liberation and Transformation. 7942-62. Croom Helm. London. UK, 1981: 4F. Schurmann and 0. Schell, Communist China, China Readings 3. Penquin, Harmondsworth, UK, 19673. 5Brugger, op cif, Ref 3. %ee Jiyuan, op cif, Ref 1. ‘J. Chkneaux, China: The People’s Republic. 7949-1976. Harvester, Brighton. UK, 1979. ‘P. Kane, Famine in China, 795+67, Demographic and Social Implications, Macmillian, London, UK, 1988. ‘/bid, p 77. “/bid. “Jiyuan, op tit, Ref 1. “Kane, op tit, Ref 8. 13D. Rurkheng, ‘Advancing amidst reform’. in D.W. Lonaworth. ed. China’s Rural development -Miracle, University of Queensland Press, St Lucia, 1989. 14D.J. Dywer, China Now, Longman, London, UK, 1974; Chesneaux, op tit, Ref 7; Brugger, op tit, Ref 3. 15Kane, op tit, Ref 8. “See the references in my original article as well as those cited here. 17A Sen, Poverty and Famines, Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK, 1981.
Entitlements and the Chinese famine I was reluctant to reply to Erhun Kula’s critique’ of my attempts at analysing famines,2 partly because it is difficult to respond to data-free empirical assertions. Kula presents no statistics, nor any reference to serious statistical analysis, in favour of his general conclusion that ‘The Chinese famine of 1959-61 offers powerful evidence to contradict Sen’s entitlement approach as it took most of its toll in areas of high incomes, ie the cities’.” Indeed, all the demographic studies of
FOOD POLICY June 1990
famine casualties suggest a much higher mortality in the rural areas than in the cities.4 But my reluctance was also partly caused by the recognition that it is hard to keep one’s cool in replying to an attack that relies so heavily on straightforward distortion. .4s it happens, Terry Cannon and Carl Riskin have shown the empirical falsity and conceptual muddles underlying Kula’s claims5 I have also seen Kula’s response to Cannon and Riskin, and the fact that neither Cannon’s
nor Riskin’s points have been at all met.’ Perhaps because of his failure to provide an adequate response to Cannon’s and Riskin’s arguments, Kula elaborates on his vilification of me, characterizing me as someone who ‘glorifies the Chinese system’ and who falls in the category of ‘the most gullible [who] have faith in what dictators promise and do’. Since this diagnosis is based on a complete distortion of my views and published writings on the Chinese famine, I believe I should reply at least to this part of Kula’s attack after all.
Democracy and distortions The mortality data relating to the period of the Chinese famine of 195% 61 became available only in the early 198Os, and serious demographic analysis of mortality identifying a major famine during 1958-61 began appearing in the West during 1981-82.’ These empirical data were not available at the time I completed my book, Poverty and Famines, published in 1981. Far from ignoring the evidence of the famine as it emerged, I believe I was among the earliest to attempt a political economic analysis of the causation of the Chinese famine, emphasizing both the enormity of the famine and the monumental political and economic failure underlying it. My analyses of the Chinese famine were published during 1982-84,’ and were commented on extensively.” Rather than having ‘faith in what dictators promise and do’, I have argued that famine was possible in China in a way it was not in India precisely because of the lack of democratic opposition and free newspapers in China. My claim that democracy plays a crucial role in the elimination of famines has been further investigated with evidence from sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.“’ In trying to establish my alleged gullibility and faith in dictatorship, Kula chooses to ignore all these publications altogether, quoting each time precisely the same remark (on the Chinese general success in combating hunger) from my earlier monograph Poverty and Famines (1981). Furthermore, giving the impression that I
261
Letters to the Editor had ignored the Chinese famine even after reliable empirical evidence regarding the famine became available from the early 1980s, Kula misattributed in his original article the remark picked from my 1981 book to a paper of mine published as late as 1986.” No statement remotely like the one attributed was made in my 1986 paper that Kula cited.
Famine causality and entitlements On the analysis of the Chinese famine itself, Dr Kula is hardly more reliable. He provides no statistics to question Riskin’s rejection - based on overwhelming empirical evidence - of Kula’s assertion that the famine ‘took its toll mostly in the cities’,12 but he continues to insist that he was right.‘j Kula also seems unable to see that his concession that ‘those who perished of hunger in the urban districts may have been the poor and the unemployed’ points directly to the relevance of entitlement failure in the genesis of starvation. I end
I4
with a general point on the entitlement approach. As was explained in some detail in Poverty und Famines, a failure of entitlement can result from a variety of causal processes, which may or may not include a decline in food supply. The constrast between the ‘entitlement view’ and the ‘food availability view’ of famine causation arises primarily from the possibility that famines muy quite easily result from causal factors other than food availability decline. The contrast does not lie in any supposed claim in the entitlement view that famines cunnot result from, or be causally associated with, severe declines in food availability - no such claim has ever been made in any of my writings on this subject. Kula’s remark that ‘according to Sen the decline in entitlements rather than decline in food supply is the most crucial factor in the analysis of famines’ makes a false contrast.” In some of the famines studied in my Poverty und Famines there was no substantial food availability decline (eg in the Bengal famine of 1943, the Ethiopian famine of 1973, the Bangladesh famine of 1974),
whereas in others, as I discussed, there clearly was a decline of food availability (eg in the Sahel famines of the early 1970s the Ethiopian famine of 1974).lh The role of food availability in the determination of entitlements of vulnerable groups cannot be ignored in entitlement analysis. The entitlement view incorporates both demand and supply factors. A satisfactory entitlement analysis of any famine (including the Chinese famine of 195861) would obviously be impossible without taking adequate note of the changes, if any, in food availability (eg the enormous decline in food output in China due to the debacle of the Great Leap Forward); as I have discussed.” But ‘even in those cases in which a famine i.7 accompanied by a reduction in the amount of food available per head, the causal mechanism precipitating starvation has to bring in many variables other than the general availability of food’.‘* In analysing the extent and the distribution of starvation, we have to look beyond output data - at incomes, employments, wages, prices and other variables that govern the entitlements of specific groups. A convincing entitlement analysis must include the causal influences of variables (including output changes, if any) on the entitlements of all vulnerable groups. These variables are also influenced by public policies (eg proemployment creation. curement, taxes, subsidies, incentives, rationing), and thus also by the nature of the government and by the presence or absence of public pressure, accountability and opposition. Entitlement studies have to include, inter alia, output information as well as analyses of politics and political economy.“’ Given the nature of the concept of entitlement, this broad coverage of entitlement analysis must not come as a surprise. Amartya Lamont
Sen
University
Professor
Harvard
University
Cambridge,
MA,
USA
’ E. Kula, ‘Politics, economics, agriculture and famine: the Chinese case’, Food PO/icy, Vol 14, No 1, Feb 1989, pp 13-16.
’ A.K. Sen, Poverty and Famines, Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK, 1981. 3 Kula, op tit, Ref 1, p 16. 4 See, for example, B. Ashton, K. Hill, A. Piazza and R. Zeitz. ‘Famine in China, 1958-61’, Population and Development Review, Vol 10, No 4, 1984; Xizhe Peng, ‘Demographic consequences of the Great Leap Forward’, Population and Development Review, Vol 13, No 4, 1987. See also the Chinese sources cited in Carl Riskin’s letter in this issue of Food Policy. ‘T. Cannon, ‘Chinese famine: an intemperate attack’, Food Policy, Vol 15, No 3, June 1990, pp 257-258; C. Riskin, ‘Facts support Sen’, Food Policy, Vol 15, No 3, June 1990, pp 258-259. ’ E. Kula, ‘Author’s reply’, Food Policy, Vol 15, No 3, June 1990, pp 259261. ’ Among the early publications in Chinese were Zhu Zhengzhi, in Jingji Kexue, 1980, and Sun Yefang, in Jingji Guanli, 1981. Among the early Western analyses were A.J. Coale, ‘Population trends, population policy and population studies in China’, Population and Development Review, Vol 7, 1981, and J. Aird, ‘Population studies and population policy in China’, Population and Development Review, Vol 8, 1982. a A.K. Sen, ‘How is India doing?‘, New York Review of Books, Vol 29, Christmas number, 1982; ‘Food battles: conflict in the access to food’, Coromandel Lecture, New Delhi, 1982, published in Mainstream, 8 January 1983; ‘Development: which way now?‘, Economic Journal. Vol 93, 1983: Resources, Values and Development, Harvard University Press, Oxford, Blackwell and Cambridge, MA, 1984. ‘See, for example, Ashok Mitra, K.N. Raj and Benedict Stavis, ‘An exchange’, New York Review of Books, Vol 30. 3 March 1983; T.P. Bernstein, ‘Starving to death in China’, New York Review of Books, Vol 30, 6 June 1983; B. Ashton, et a/, op tit, Ref 4. ” On this see my Hunger and Entitlement, World Institute of Development Economics Research, Helsinki, 1987; ‘Freedom of choice: concept and content’, European Economic Review. Vol 32. 1988; and ‘Food and freedom’, World Development, Vol 17, 1989, and my joint book with Jean Dreze, Hunger and Public Action, Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK, 1990. See also N. Ram, ‘An independent press and anti-hunger strategies: the Indian experience’, in J. Dreze and A. Sen, eds, The Political Economy of Hunger, Clarendon Press, UK, forthcoming. ” A.K. Sen, ‘The causes of famine: a reply’, Food Policy, Vol 11, No 2, May 1986, Kula’s misquotation, op tit, Ref 1, pp 13-14. ” Kula, op tit, Ref 1, p 13. l3 Kula continues to ignore serious demographic studies of the Chinese famine by Ashton ef at (op tit, Ref 4), Peng (op tit, Ref 4) and others (op tit, Ref 7). He cites Penny Kane, Famine in China, 1959-61, Macmillan, London, UK, 1988, but ignores her observations damaging to his thesis,
FOOD POLICY June 1990
Leners to the EditorlConference eg that ‘the increase in mortality was greater in the rural areas’ (p 91). I4 Kula, op cit. Ref 6, p 259-261. l5 Kula, op tit, Fief 6. ‘6 Sen, op cif, Ref 2, Chapters 6-9. “A.K. Sen, ‘Development: which way now?‘, Economic Journal, Voi 93, 1983;
Conference
Sen and DrBze, op tit, Ref 10. ‘a Sen, op cif, Ref 2, p 154. ” ibid, Chapters 5-10; A.K. Sen, Resources, Values and Development, Harvard University Press, Oxford, Blackwell and Cambridge, MA, Essays 15,16,18,19 and 20.
reports
Still dealing with preliminaries
gion also face severe budgetary constraints. Farm incomes can only be increased, where productivity is stagnant, by increasing farm commodity prices. Urban consumers, many of whom also face growing problems of food insecurity, are reluctant to pay ever higher prices for staples. Governments are finding it increasingly difficult to meet the demands of both groups. Food insecurity in the region derives from a range of causes including:
l Fifth Annual Conference on Food Security Research in Southern Africa, jointly sponsored by the Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, University of Zimbabwe, the Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University, and the SADCC Food Security Technical and Administration Unit, Hafare, ~~~a~we, 16-18 October 1989
l 0
Despite
the fact that the SADCC produces sufficient food staples for its own needs, there remain considerable problems in ensuring food security for the people of the region. John Dhliwayo, of the SADCC Food Security Technical and Administration Unit, indicated that five of the nine SADCC countries faced continuing food deficits and, more importantly for this conference, that severe problems of food insecurity remained at the household level amongst certain vulnerable population groups. In addition, food-deficit countries within SADCC had, over the past few years, been unable to import their food needs due to economic constraints, while surplus countries had managed to export less than 30% of their excess grain (some of which was exported outside the region). The theme of the meeting was ‘Food security in Southern Africa: issues and challenges of the 1990s’. As the fifth in a series of annual meetings, and with several of the researchers having participated in all the previous meetings, it was reasonable to expect that some substantive research findings were to be presented at the meeting. Disappointing features of the meeting were both the dearth of such papers and the absence of consolidation of research presented at previous meetings. Too many papers were either preliminary findings or reviews of readily available secondary data. region’
FOOD POLICY June
1990
The strength of the meeting was the increased regional participation, as active researchers, of economists from throughout the region. The issues for food security researchers in the region have changed somewhat in the period since the collaborative research project between Michigan State University and the University of Zimbabwe (through which the meeting was supported) was established. The extended drought of the early 1980s was successfully weathered without evidence of widespread famine (except in those parts of the region affected by war). Nevertheless, papers presented at previous meetings had shown that even in the higherpotential areas there were significant groups who were unable to produce enough to feed themselves through the year. This trend was confirmed further by a paper presented at this meeting by ~udimu, Chopak. Chigume, Govereh and Bernsten reporting survey data from two low-rainfall areas in Zimbabwe.
Insecurity A paper by Louis Msukwa on malnutrition in Malwai most graphically analysed the problems faced by many low-income rural families. While facing this continuing problem of malnutrition and intraseasonal food insecurity, particularly amongst low-income rural households, governments in the re-
reporrs
low productivity levels as a result of the lack of improved varieties, services and/or inputs and drought, disease (both agricultural and human) and pests; war and civil disorder; poor farm prices.
The discussions and papers at the meeting suggested that policy makers were well aware of the third problem, and in many countries in the region active steps were being taken to improve farm-level prices.’ With respect to the second issue - a major problem in at least two SADCC countries there was little discussion, although the problem of South African destabilization was mentioned by several authors. Firmino Mucavele gave a short but informative paper on the effects of economic rehabilitation on grain markets in Maputo, but without direct reference to the war in Mozambique. Given the theme of the conference, and the emerging trend towards peace in Southern Africa, it was disappointing to find that the issues of reviving the war-torn economies of Mozambique and Angola were ignored. Both countries have enormous agricultural potential and both face critical food problems that will persist into the 1990s. It was also frustrating to find little progress had been made in improving productivity. Many of the papers referred to the poor productivity of smai~ho~ders in much of the region and to the need to introduce improved technologies. Only two papers specifically addressed the interactions between policy and technology - and the time permitted did not allow adequate discussion of this critical issue.
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