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Environmental impact of stratospheric flight: Biological and climatic effects of aircraft emissions in the stratosphere
Agricultural Meteorology, 17(1976) 55--56 © Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Amsterdam -- Printed in The Netherlands.
B o o k Review Environmental Impact of Stratospheric Flight: Biological and Climatic Effects of Aircraft Emissions in the Stratosphere. National A c a d e m y of Sciences, Washington, D.C., 348 pp., $8,00. As stated in the title, this b o o k is concerned with the climatic and biological impacts of a large fleet of supersonic and subsonic aircraft flying in the stratosphere on a regular basis. This b o o k is the final report of a group of recognized scholars from many different disciplines. The group was called the Climatic Impact Committee and represented the U.S. National Research Council, the National Academy of Sciences and the National A c a d e m y of Engineers. The first three pages of the b o o k list the major recommendations of the committee. They state that the most clearly established problem due to fleets of stratospheric airliners is a potential reduction of ozone in the stratosphere due to the NOx emissions of the engines of the aircraft. A decrease in ozone will increase the biologically harmful ultraviolet light at ground level. This in turn, may increase the occurrence of skin cancer in the human population. In addition, the increased ultraviolet light may produce small changes in global temperature and precipitation. Thus, the committee recommends that engine emissions of NO x and SOx be considerably reduced, the investigation of the biological effects of increased ultraviolet light be accelerated, and the climatic effects of reduced ozone in the stratosphere be investigated. Chapter 1 of the b o o k follows the list of recommendations and is an abbreviated treatment of the entire study conducted by the committee. The items considered in Chapter 1 are the overall problem, the engine effluents, the consequences, skin cancer, the options, the predictions and the conclusions. Chapters 2--5 contain an extended discussion (compared to Chapter 1) of the physical and biological problems of increased engine emissions in the stratosphere. Chapter 2 discusses the effects of NOx on the ozone layer and ultraviolet radiation. In Chapter 3 the link between the NOx emissions and the biological and medical impacts on humans, plants, insects and aquatic systems is formulated. In addition, Chapter 4 considers the possible links between NOx emissions and surface climate. Further, Chapter 5 addresses the question of the effects of climatic change on agriculture and the biosphere. Chapters 6--8 consider approaches to the solution of the problems considered in the previous chapters. Chapter 6 considers what can be done in the design and operation of jet aircraft engines to greatly reduce the emissions of NOx. Chapter 7 is concerned wi~h the reduction of SOx in the engine emissions. Finally, Chapter 8 considers the various political and economic policies
55
that a government or group of governments may adopt to solve the problem of the impacts of stratospheric flight. Each policy results in various benefits and costs, thus, leading to a "decision problem". This decision-making analysis is discussed in this final chapter. The list of recommendations and chapters 1--8 make up slightly more than one quarter of the book. The remaining part of the book (almost threequarters of the book) delves into the scientific details that form the basis for the formal report and identifies the important references in the scientific literature. Appendix A is concerned with the stratospheric ozone layer and its photochemistry. This appendix considers the characteristics of the natural stratosphere, the ozone chemistry in the natural stratosphere, and the ozone problem in the perturbed stratosphere. Appendices B, C and D deal with the biological effects of the reduction of ozone in the stratosphere and the resultant increase of ultraviolet light at the surface. Appendix B considers the solar ultraviolet flux at the earth's surface for both the unperturbed case and for the atmosphere perturbed by stratospheric airliners. In Appendix C, estimates of increases in human skin cancer due to increases in ultraviolet radiation are given; while in Appendix D, the effects o f increased ultraviolet radiation on plants are enumerated. Appendices E--I are concerned with the climatic impacts of engine emissions in the stratosphere. In Appendix E various theories of climatic change due to natural and anthropogenic causes are considered. Appendix F considers the perturbations in the radiation budget due to changes in the stratospheric composition. Appendices G, H and I deal with the impacts of climatic change on crop yields and some of the modeling aspects of this problem. Appendix J is a detailed discussion of the characteristics of jet engines and jet fuels. The aim of this appendix is to supply background material for Chapter 6 and 7. The final appendix, Appendix K, deals with the uncertainties at every step of the analysis from the engine effluents to the changes in the stratosphere and on to the ultimate impacts on humans, plants and animals. The appendix considers the chains of consequences from emissions to various impacts on the earth's surface, the kinds of uncertainties involved, the simplifying assumptions that were made in the analyses, the quantitative relationships employed in the work, and the results of this uncertainty analysis. Overall, this report is very informative and carefully written, and the recommendations and conclusions are cautiously stated in a manner consistent with the analysis. This b o o k should be a w o r t h y addition to the shelves of the environmentalist, the climatologist, the political decision maker, the jet engine designer, the atmospheric chemist, and the public at large. R O N A L D L. D R A K E ( R i c h l a n d , Wash. )
B o o k Review Environmental Impact of Stratospheric Flight: Biological and Climatic Effects of Aircraft Emissions in the Stratosphere. National A c a d e m y of Sciences, Washington, D.C., 348 pp., $8,00. As stated in the title, this b o o k is concerned with the climatic and biological impacts of a large fleet of supersonic and subsonic aircraft flying in the stratosphere on a regular basis. This b o o k is the final report of a group of recognized scholars from many different disciplines. The group was called the Climatic Impact Committee and represented the U.S. National Research Council, the National Academy of Sciences and the National A c a d e m y of Engineers. The first three pages of the b o o k list the major recommendations of the committee. They state that the most clearly established problem due to fleets of stratospheric airliners is a potential reduction of ozone in the stratosphere due to the NOx emissions of the engines of the aircraft. A decrease in ozone will increase the biologically harmful ultraviolet light at ground level. This in turn, may increase the occurrence of skin cancer in the human population. In addition, the increased ultraviolet light may produce small changes in global temperature and precipitation. Thus, the committee recommends that engine emissions of NO x and SOx be considerably reduced, the investigation of the biological effects of increased ultraviolet light be accelerated, and the climatic effects of reduced ozone in the stratosphere be investigated. Chapter 1 of the b o o k follows the list of recommendations and is an abbreviated treatment of the entire study conducted by the committee. The items considered in Chapter 1 are the overall problem, the engine effluents, the consequences, skin cancer, the options, the predictions and the conclusions. Chapters 2--5 contain an extended discussion (compared to Chapter 1) of the physical and biological problems of increased engine emissions in the stratosphere. Chapter 2 discusses the effects of NOx on the ozone layer and ultraviolet radiation. In Chapter 3 the link between the NOx emissions and the biological and medical impacts on humans, plants, insects and aquatic systems is formulated. In addition, Chapter 4 considers the possible links between NOx emissions and surface climate. Further, Chapter 5 addresses the question of the effects of climatic change on agriculture and the biosphere. Chapters 6--8 consider approaches to the solution of the problems considered in the previous chapters. Chapter 6 considers what can be done in the design and operation of jet aircraft engines to greatly reduce the emissions of NOx. Chapter 7 is concerned wi~h the reduction of SOx in the engine emissions. Finally, Chapter 8 considers the various political and economic policies
55
that a government or group of governments may adopt to solve the problem of the impacts of stratospheric flight. Each policy results in various benefits and costs, thus, leading to a "decision problem". This decision-making analysis is discussed in this final chapter. The list of recommendations and chapters 1--8 make up slightly more than one quarter of the book. The remaining part of the book (almost threequarters of the book) delves into the scientific details that form the basis for the formal report and identifies the important references in the scientific literature. Appendix A is concerned with the stratospheric ozone layer and its photochemistry. This appendix considers the characteristics of the natural stratosphere, the ozone chemistry in the natural stratosphere, and the ozone problem in the perturbed stratosphere. Appendices B, C and D deal with the biological effects of the reduction of ozone in the stratosphere and the resultant increase of ultraviolet light at the surface. Appendix B considers the solar ultraviolet flux at the earth's surface for both the unperturbed case and for the atmosphere perturbed by stratospheric airliners. In Appendix C, estimates of increases in human skin cancer due to increases in ultraviolet radiation are given; while in Appendix D, the effects o f increased ultraviolet radiation on plants are enumerated. Appendices E--I are concerned with the climatic impacts of engine emissions in the stratosphere. In Appendix E various theories of climatic change due to natural and anthropogenic causes are considered. Appendix F considers the perturbations in the radiation budget due to changes in the stratospheric composition. Appendices G, H and I deal with the impacts of climatic change on crop yields and some of the modeling aspects of this problem. Appendix J is a detailed discussion of the characteristics of jet engines and jet fuels. The aim of this appendix is to supply background material for Chapter 6 and 7. The final appendix, Appendix K, deals with the uncertainties at every step of the analysis from the engine effluents to the changes in the stratosphere and on to the ultimate impacts on humans, plants and animals. The appendix considers the chains of consequences from emissions to various impacts on the earth's surface, the kinds of uncertainties involved, the simplifying assumptions that were made in the analyses, the quantitative relationships employed in the work, and the results of this uncertainty analysis. Overall, this report is very informative and carefully written, and the recommendations and conclusions are cautiously stated in a manner consistent with the analysis. This b o o k should be a w o r t h y addition to the shelves of the environmentalist, the climatologist, the political decision maker, the jet engine designer, the atmospheric chemist, and the public at large. R O N A L D L. D R A K E ( R i c h l a n d , Wash. )