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Estimated number of professionally active dentists, 1978 to 1990
A S S O C IA T IO N
REPORTS
Selected p ro je ctio n s E s tim
a te d
n u m
p r o f e s s io n a lly
1 9 7 8
to
b e r
Estim ated n u m b e r o f profes s io n a lly a ctive d entists in 1990 ............................... 161,461
o f
a c tiv e
d e n tis ts , Estim ated nu m b e r o f profes sio n a lly active dentists w h o w ill be u n d e r 35 years o f age in 1990 .............................42,000
1 9 9 0
Estim ated percentage of g ro w th in num ber o f active dentists betw een 1978 and 1 9 9 0 ................................... 29.4%
Bureau of Economic and Behavioral Research
a
the basis o f the m ost recent data collected b y the A m e rica n Den ta l A ssociation, i t is estim ated that the num b e r o f active dentists in the U n ite d States w il l increase fro m 124,760, recorded at the be g inn in g o f 1978, to a p p ro xim a te ly 161,461 by the end of 1990,* representing a g ro w th rate o f 29.4% (Table 1). The to ta l US p o p u la tio n is expected to increase o n ly 11.8% d u rin g th is same p e rio d .t One fa cto r affecting the projected increase in the num ber o f dentists is the annual rise in the s u p p ly o f den ta l school graduates, w h ic h , du rin g the past tw o decades, has far ex ceeded the g ro w th o f the general p o p u la tio n . The num ber of graduates grew fro m an estimated 3,300 in the 1960s to 4,600 in the 1970s, a 39% increase, and is ex pected to average more than 5,700 in the 1980s. T h is expected average is based on current first-ye a r e n ro llm e n t data com bined w ith in fo rm a tio n regard in g dental schools th a t are sched-
Estimated percentage of gro w th in US p o p u la tio n be tw een 1978 and 1990 ..11.8%
Table 1 ■Estimated number of professionally active dentists, 1978 to 1990. Changes during the year
Year
Number active Jan 1*
Graduates (additions)
Losses from deaths and retirements
Net gain
Number active Dec 31
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
124,760 127,440 130,127 132,900 135,665 138,711 141,726 144,697 147,621 150,495 153,317 156,086 158,801
5,324 5,351 5,460 5,478 5,797 5,807 5,807 5,807 5,807 5,807 5,807 5,807 5,807
2,644 2,664 2,687 2,713 2,751 2,792 2,836 2,883 2,933 2,985 3,038 3,092 3,147
2,680 2,687 2,773 2,765 3,046 3,015 2,971 2,924 2,874 2,822 2,769 2,715 2,660
127,440 130,127 132,900 135,665 138,711 141,726 144,697 147,621 150,495 153,317 156,086 158,801 161,461
‘ N u m b e r o f p r o f e s s i o n a l l y a c t iv e d e n t is t s , J a n 1 , 1 9 7 8 is b a s e d o n t h e p r i m a r y o c c u p a t io n o f r e s p o n d e n t s t o th e S u r v e y o f D is t r ib u t io n
o f D e n t is t s , 1 9 7 6 ( u p d a t e d
to F e b r u a r y
1978) a n d
t h e e s t im a te d
a c t iv it y s ta tu s o f
n o n re s p o n d e n ts .
ule d to begin operation in the next decade. Experience shows th at ap p ro x im a te ly 92% o f the first-ye a r dental students w ill graduate. On th is basis, i t is estim ated th a t 5,807 students w ill fin is h dental school in 1983. As pe n d in g or fu tu re legisla tio n m ay reduce or term inate capita tio n grants to u n ive rsitie s fo r the
tra in in g o f health m anpow er, i t is possible th a t there w il l be no fu rth e r changes in the num ber o f dental graduates th ro u g h the end o f the decade. The increase in the num b e r o f n e w dental graduates ente rin g active practice w il l greatly affect the fu tu re re tire m e n t and death rates in the J A D A , V o l. 9 9 , J u ly 1 9 7 9 a 8 7
A S S O C IA T IO N
REPORTS
T a b le 2
■ E s t im a t e d a g e d i s t r ib u t io n o f d e n t is t s b y a c t iv e a n d r e t ire d sta tu s, F e b r u a r y 1978.
Age (years) Under 35 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85 + Total
Estim ated num ber of dentists Professionally Retiredf active 33,317 147 30,275 220 462 28,085 1,296 20,416 5,057 9,421 7,596 2,821 3,603 425 18,381 124,760
Living 33,464 30,495 28,547 21,712 14,478 10,417 4,028 143,141
‘ E s tim a te s a r e b a s e d o n S u r v e y o f D i s t r ib u t io n o f D e n t is ts , 1 9 7 6 ( u p d a te d f l n c l u d e s d e n t is ts w h o
a re r e t ir e d
dental profession b y su b s ta n tia lly re d u cin g th e average age o f p ra c tic in g dentists. In 1978, a p p ro x im a te ly 1,300 active d entists (0.9% o f the to ta l n u m b e r o f liv in g dentists) d ie d .t W ith the in flu x o f yo u n g e r dentists and th e d e c lin in g death rate am ong th e general p o p u la tio n , a d o w n w a rd tre n d is expected in the p ro p o rtio n o f deaths am ong active dentists. There are lit tle data on w h ic h to base an estim ate o f the n u m b e r o f dentists w h o w i l l re tire each year. In the absence o f such in fo rm a tio n , the percentage of re tire d dentists (12.8% o f a ll liv in g d entists in 1978) can be used to estim ate th a t a p p ro x im a te ly 1.1% o f a ll active d entists re tire d in 1978. A g a in , as the average age o f d entists decreases, the rate o f re tire m e n t sh o u ld also decrease.
Bases for projections T he in fo rm a tio n fo r these p ro je ctions w as taken p rim a rily fro m the A m e ric a n D ental A s s o c ia tio n ’s
88 ■ J A D A , V o l. 99, J u ly 1979
o r w h o s e p r im a r y o c c u p a tio n
Percentage distribution Professionally Retired active 0.8 26.7 1.2 24.3 22.5 2.5 16.4 7.1 27.5 7.5 41.3 2.3 0.3 19.6 100.0
100.0
Living 23.4 21.3 19.9 15.2 10.1 7.3 2.8 100.0
to F e b r u a r y 1 9 7 8 ).
is o u ts id e th e d e n t a l p r o fe s s io n .
re g is try w h ic h has been updated th ro u g h February 1978. T h is re g is try in c lu d e s a ll graduates o f accredited US d e n ta l schools, regardless o f th e ir m e m bership status in the A s sociation. Each d e n tis t is catego riz e d b y th e typ e o f p ractice (gen eral o r sp e cia lty) and o c cu p a tio n (fu ll- o r p a rt-tim e p ra c titio n e r; dental school fa c u lty o r sta ff mem ber; federal, state, o r h o s p ita l den tist; in te rn , resident, o r student; a d m in is tra to r; o r re tire d den tist. A ll b u t “ re tire d d e n tists” are considered p ro fe s s io n a lly active). F o re ig n den tists w h o have been licensed in the U n ite d States and have a p p lie d fo r an A D A id e n tific a tio n nu m b e r are also in c lu d e d . K n o w n deaths and address changes are placed on file tw ic e a m o n th . A s o f F ebruary 1978, the A ssocia tio n ’s re g is try contained 143,141 dentists presum ed liv in g (Table 2).§ T he a c tiv ity status (active, re tire d , o r no lo n g e r p ra c tic in g d e n tistry) was v e rifie d fo r 126,082 (88%) o f these
dentists; th e occupations o f the re m a in in g 17,059 w ere u n k n o w n . Data on age, w h ic h are c ru c ia l to th is p ro je c tio n study, are o n file fo r a p p ro x im a te ly 96% o f a ll dentists lis te d in th e re g istry. F or the re m a in in g 4% , age is estim ated on the basis o f year o f g ra d u a tio n fro m dental school.
This article w as prepared by Sheldon Loewy, MA, research associate, Bureau of Economic and Behavioral Research. *This estim ate is lower than the figure pro jected by the federal governm ent (172,333 den tists in 1990). tB ased on Series II Projection of Bureau of the Census, US Departm ent of Commerce, Pro jections of the Population of the U nited States, 1977 to 2050. Current Population Reports, series P-25, no. 704, July 1977. ¿Estim ates are based on m ortality rates for the w hite m ale population, published by the National Center for Health Statistics. In M onthly Vital Statistics Report, Table 2 , US D epartm ent of Health, Education and Welfare, Public H ealth Service, 78-1120: 26 ( 12) (Suppl 2), M arch 1978. §Figure includes 1976 and 1977 dental school graduates.
REPORTS
Selected p ro je ctio n s E s tim
a te d
n u m
p r o f e s s io n a lly
1 9 7 8
to
b e r
Estim ated n u m b e r o f profes s io n a lly a ctive d entists in 1990 ............................... 161,461
o f
a c tiv e
d e n tis ts , Estim ated nu m b e r o f profes sio n a lly active dentists w h o w ill be u n d e r 35 years o f age in 1990 .............................42,000
1 9 9 0
Estim ated percentage of g ro w th in num ber o f active dentists betw een 1978 and 1 9 9 0 ................................... 29.4%
Bureau of Economic and Behavioral Research
a
the basis o f the m ost recent data collected b y the A m e rica n Den ta l A ssociation, i t is estim ated that the num b e r o f active dentists in the U n ite d States w il l increase fro m 124,760, recorded at the be g inn in g o f 1978, to a p p ro xim a te ly 161,461 by the end of 1990,* representing a g ro w th rate o f 29.4% (Table 1). The to ta l US p o p u la tio n is expected to increase o n ly 11.8% d u rin g th is same p e rio d .t One fa cto r affecting the projected increase in the num ber o f dentists is the annual rise in the s u p p ly o f den ta l school graduates, w h ic h , du rin g the past tw o decades, has far ex ceeded the g ro w th o f the general p o p u la tio n . The num ber of graduates grew fro m an estimated 3,300 in the 1960s to 4,600 in the 1970s, a 39% increase, and is ex pected to average more than 5,700 in the 1980s. T h is expected average is based on current first-ye a r e n ro llm e n t data com bined w ith in fo rm a tio n regard in g dental schools th a t are sched-
Estimated percentage of gro w th in US p o p u la tio n be tw een 1978 and 1990 ..11.8%
Table 1 ■Estimated number of professionally active dentists, 1978 to 1990. Changes during the year
Year
Number active Jan 1*
Graduates (additions)
Losses from deaths and retirements
Net gain
Number active Dec 31
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
124,760 127,440 130,127 132,900 135,665 138,711 141,726 144,697 147,621 150,495 153,317 156,086 158,801
5,324 5,351 5,460 5,478 5,797 5,807 5,807 5,807 5,807 5,807 5,807 5,807 5,807
2,644 2,664 2,687 2,713 2,751 2,792 2,836 2,883 2,933 2,985 3,038 3,092 3,147
2,680 2,687 2,773 2,765 3,046 3,015 2,971 2,924 2,874 2,822 2,769 2,715 2,660
127,440 130,127 132,900 135,665 138,711 141,726 144,697 147,621 150,495 153,317 156,086 158,801 161,461
‘ N u m b e r o f p r o f e s s i o n a l l y a c t iv e d e n t is t s , J a n 1 , 1 9 7 8 is b a s e d o n t h e p r i m a r y o c c u p a t io n o f r e s p o n d e n t s t o th e S u r v e y o f D is t r ib u t io n
o f D e n t is t s , 1 9 7 6 ( u p d a t e d
to F e b r u a r y
1978) a n d
t h e e s t im a te d
a c t iv it y s ta tu s o f
n o n re s p o n d e n ts .
ule d to begin operation in the next decade. Experience shows th at ap p ro x im a te ly 92% o f the first-ye a r dental students w ill graduate. On th is basis, i t is estim ated th a t 5,807 students w ill fin is h dental school in 1983. As pe n d in g or fu tu re legisla tio n m ay reduce or term inate capita tio n grants to u n ive rsitie s fo r the
tra in in g o f health m anpow er, i t is possible th a t there w il l be no fu rth e r changes in the num ber o f dental graduates th ro u g h the end o f the decade. The increase in the num b e r o f n e w dental graduates ente rin g active practice w il l greatly affect the fu tu re re tire m e n t and death rates in the J A D A , V o l. 9 9 , J u ly 1 9 7 9 a 8 7
A S S O C IA T IO N
REPORTS
T a b le 2
■ E s t im a t e d a g e d i s t r ib u t io n o f d e n t is t s b y a c t iv e a n d r e t ire d sta tu s, F e b r u a r y 1978.
Age (years) Under 35 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85 + Total
Estim ated num ber of dentists Professionally Retiredf active 33,317 147 30,275 220 462 28,085 1,296 20,416 5,057 9,421 7,596 2,821 3,603 425 18,381 124,760
Living 33,464 30,495 28,547 21,712 14,478 10,417 4,028 143,141
‘ E s tim a te s a r e b a s e d o n S u r v e y o f D i s t r ib u t io n o f D e n t is ts , 1 9 7 6 ( u p d a te d f l n c l u d e s d e n t is ts w h o
a re r e t ir e d
dental profession b y su b s ta n tia lly re d u cin g th e average age o f p ra c tic in g dentists. In 1978, a p p ro x im a te ly 1,300 active d entists (0.9% o f the to ta l n u m b e r o f liv in g dentists) d ie d .t W ith the in flu x o f yo u n g e r dentists and th e d e c lin in g death rate am ong th e general p o p u la tio n , a d o w n w a rd tre n d is expected in the p ro p o rtio n o f deaths am ong active dentists. There are lit tle data on w h ic h to base an estim ate o f the n u m b e r o f dentists w h o w i l l re tire each year. In the absence o f such in fo rm a tio n , the percentage of re tire d dentists (12.8% o f a ll liv in g d entists in 1978) can be used to estim ate th a t a p p ro x im a te ly 1.1% o f a ll active d entists re tire d in 1978. A g a in , as the average age o f d entists decreases, the rate o f re tire m e n t sh o u ld also decrease.
Bases for projections T he in fo rm a tio n fo r these p ro je ctions w as taken p rim a rily fro m the A m e ric a n D ental A s s o c ia tio n ’s
88 ■ J A D A , V o l. 99, J u ly 1979
o r w h o s e p r im a r y o c c u p a tio n
Percentage distribution Professionally Retired active 0.8 26.7 1.2 24.3 22.5 2.5 16.4 7.1 27.5 7.5 41.3 2.3 0.3 19.6 100.0
100.0
Living 23.4 21.3 19.9 15.2 10.1 7.3 2.8 100.0
to F e b r u a r y 1 9 7 8 ).
is o u ts id e th e d e n t a l p r o fe s s io n .
re g is try w h ic h has been updated th ro u g h February 1978. T h is re g is try in c lu d e s a ll graduates o f accredited US d e n ta l schools, regardless o f th e ir m e m bership status in the A s sociation. Each d e n tis t is catego riz e d b y th e typ e o f p ractice (gen eral o r sp e cia lty) and o c cu p a tio n (fu ll- o r p a rt-tim e p ra c titio n e r; dental school fa c u lty o r sta ff mem ber; federal, state, o r h o s p ita l den tist; in te rn , resident, o r student; a d m in is tra to r; o r re tire d den tist. A ll b u t “ re tire d d e n tists” are considered p ro fe s s io n a lly active). F o re ig n den tists w h o have been licensed in the U n ite d States and have a p p lie d fo r an A D A id e n tific a tio n nu m b e r are also in c lu d e d . K n o w n deaths and address changes are placed on file tw ic e a m o n th . A s o f F ebruary 1978, the A ssocia tio n ’s re g is try contained 143,141 dentists presum ed liv in g (Table 2).§ T he a c tiv ity status (active, re tire d , o r no lo n g e r p ra c tic in g d e n tistry) was v e rifie d fo r 126,082 (88%) o f these
dentists; th e occupations o f the re m a in in g 17,059 w ere u n k n o w n . Data on age, w h ic h are c ru c ia l to th is p ro je c tio n study, are o n file fo r a p p ro x im a te ly 96% o f a ll dentists lis te d in th e re g istry. F or the re m a in in g 4% , age is estim ated on the basis o f year o f g ra d u a tio n fro m dental school.
This article w as prepared by Sheldon Loewy, MA, research associate, Bureau of Economic and Behavioral Research. *This estim ate is lower than the figure pro jected by the federal governm ent (172,333 den tists in 1990). tB ased on Series II Projection of Bureau of the Census, US Departm ent of Commerce, Pro jections of the Population of the U nited States, 1977 to 2050. Current Population Reports, series P-25, no. 704, July 1977. ¿Estim ates are based on m ortality rates for the w hite m ale population, published by the National Center for Health Statistics. In M onthly Vital Statistics Report, Table 2 , US D epartm ent of Health, Education and Welfare, Public H ealth Service, 78-1120: 26 ( 12) (Suppl 2), M arch 1978. §Figure includes 1976 and 1977 dental school graduates.