- Email: [email protected]
EURO 20th Anniversary: The prospective future
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
ELSEVIER
European Journal of Operational Research 87 (1995) 415-421
EURO 20th Anniversary: The prospective future* Jakob Krarup* DIKU (Department of Computer Science, University of Copenhagen), Universitetsparken 1, DK-21O0 Copenhagen, Denmark
The past, the present - and the future
EURO's founding father and first president, H.-J. Zimmermann, has now given an account of the development that eventually led to the establishment of EURO 20 years ago. Furthermore, the indefatigable EURO-nist, the originator of several EURO instruments and our fourth president, J.-P. Brans, has covered the intervening 20 years. Only the prospective future remains to conclude this presidential trilogy. ALIO is EURO's South American counterpart, one of the four so-called regional groupings of IFORS. An ALIO-EURO Workshop on Practical Combinatorial Optimization was held in Brazil in 1989. Some of the EURO K conferences have been organized in Europe in cooperation with TIMS whereas a TIMS-EURO (or INFORMS-EURO) conference somewhere in North America has remained but is a subject of discussion. EURO XIV is thus the first major EURO-event held outside Europe. It is a great challenge for a member society to host a EURO conference and even more so when it coincides with the 20th anniversary of our Association. Judging from the immensely intense days we have spent together in a unique setting and in a country which for many reasons means so much to so many, it is my firm belief that all expectations have been fully met. Congratulations to ORSIS for the efforts made and let my appreciation go to Adir Pridor, Roman Slowinski, and last but not least, to Zilla Sinuany-Stern and her crew. No doubt: EURO XIV will become a precious memory forever. * Closing Address, EURO XIV, Jerusalem, 6th July 1995. * President of EURO 1989-1990. E-mail: [email protected] Elsevier Science B.V. SSD! 0 3 7 7 - 2 2 1 7 ( 9 5 ) 0 0 2
1I- 1
To make predictions is difficult - particularly about the future (R. Storm P., Danish humorist and cartoonist)
It's difficult to make p r e d i c t i o n s . . .
Outside of Europe for the first t i m e . . , will the next 20 years witness a EURO conference in South Africa? To make predictions is difficult as the following two examples will show. Fig. 1 displays the duration ( a ) - ( d ) of a certain human activity over time. It was once possible in a rather remote past to conduct this activity within about two
J. Krarup/ European Journal of" Operational Research 87 (1995) 415~121
416
pie have reacted at that time? Should the prophet have been praised for such bold visions or rather have had his head examined?
duration
Open problems = 2 days
= 2
hours .
.
.
.
.
!i
= 2 minutes~
(d~ "~N
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . ~. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
~ ("~)) ~-. . . . . . . >
time
1
Fig. 1. The duration of a certain human activity over time.
years (a). Much later the same task was carried out in about two months (b). Relative!y shortly thereafter, about two days (c) would suffice and human beings of today need less than two hours (d). Suppose now that a good student, well trained in forecasting, is being asked: when will about two minutes (?) be sufficient? Simple extrapolation would say "tomorrow". However, don't jump to conclusions, but note first that the human activity considered actually is "around the world". Fern~o Magalh~es, better known as Fernando Magellan, left Sevilla in September 1519 with a fleet of five ships of which only "Victoria" managed to return to Spain three years after. "About two years" (a) is not entirely wrong. Awful weather conditions and other difficulties delayed the voyage for several months. As the story goes, a certain Phileas Fogg repeated Magellan's effort in 1872 in 80 days less one second or in about two months (b). Any commercial airline today needs no more than two days (c) and spacecraft have since 1956 carried human beings around the world in about 90 minutes (d). Will new.technological developments in a foreseeable future really be capable of reducing the travel time to about two minutes? Another example: Suppose that a prophet, let us say, some 10 years ago, had predicted the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the reunification of East and West Germany, the emergence of the new democracies, the potential new members of NATO, and the present positions of, for example, Vaclav Havel, Lech Watesa, Nelson Mandela, and Yassir Arafat. How would peo-
EURO's activities have expanded considerably since 1975. During its 20 years of existence, new EURO instruments have been added whenever needed whereas no instrument as yet has been abandoned. By now, EURO has 11 instruments. Can more be expected? A candid assessment of the impact of each instrument and its estimated potential in the future would take me too far. Instead, only a few will be briefly commented on in the sequel. It should also be noted that EURO still is facing a number of ongoing problems.
The European Journal of Operational Research (EJOR) has managed to become recognized among the finest professional journals worldwide within OR. To maintain (or even increase) the present circulation, however, may be difficult to sustain due to the high subscription price. For the moment, the members of EURO are the national societies. Can easier (cheaper) access to EJOR be obtained if EURO allows for individual membership, that is, if the members of EURO are the members of the national societies? EURO has an Office Manager, Ph. Van Asbroeck, who in addition serves as editor of the quarterly EURO Bulletin, now also available on-line on WWW. A permanent secretariat, however, has for long been a subject of much discussion, but is likely to materialize in a not too distant future. Another hot issue is the rapid changes of the political borders within Europe. Obstetric aid to potential new member societies is much called for.
The EURO K conferences One of our past presidents holds the opinion that access to information, for example via WWW, will reduce the attendance at future EURO K conferences. It is true - as was pointed out by H.-J. Zimmermann - that EURO was established at a time when we were without fax machines, without e-mail, without WWW, etc. Thanks to such devices, however, it is equally true
J. Krarup/ European Journal of Operational Research 87 (1995) 415~121
that much can be achieved today without leaving one's own desk. But not everything: access to information alone cannot replace interaction among human beings. I believe therefore that future EURO K conferences still do have a mission and will maintain their position as the main EURO forum for exchange of views on professional matters. A EURO K conference is not a specialist meeting but must in practice accept papers on literally any OR subject regardless of the theme announced. "OR: Towards Intelligent Decision Support", the theme of EURO XIV, has undoubtedly influenced the Programme Committee's work as far as the semi-plenary papers are concerned but hardly the bulk of contributed papers. On the other hand, ample room must be made available for contributed papers since financial support otherwise may be difficult for the participants to obtain. EURO XIII (Glasgow, 1994) had none less than 34 parallel streams in all, with 7 sessions in each stream. The final programme for EURO was organized into 27 sessions in parallel. Disregarding plenary and semiplenary sessions, lunch and coffee breaks, these numbers mean roughly that a participant glued to his seat throughout a long day can attend at most 3-4% of the lecture hall activities. And yet, almost all EURO K conferences have been well attended! I think people keep showing up for at least three good reasons: ( 1 ) the scientific programme, with special emphasis on well-prepared and well-documented tutorials, plenary or semi-plenary papers plus a handful of selected parallel sessions; (2) access to make oneself visible to the scientific community via presentation of a paper; (3) the social relations in general: people "join the party" - because everyone else they want to meet does likewise! Furthermore, these events provide good opportunities for organizing supplementary meetings (working groups, editorial boards, EURO business meetings, etc.), since people are present anyway. Items ( 1 ) - ( 3 ) are here not ranked in order of significance; for example, it is likely that oldtimers and newcomers may have quite different preferences. Finally, the effect of an attractive location, preferably with possibilities for preor post-conference excursions, should not be ignored. The conference fee is waived for EURO Gold Medal
417
laureates and students up to a certain age are normally accepted at a reduced registration fee. Apart from some very rare exceptions, everyone else will have to pay the fee in full. However, there is a steadily increasing number of retired friends of EURO who still enjoy maintaining their friendship. Full fee - or can EURO afford to offer something more civilized in the future as an accolade for their contributions over many years?
OR
or ...
?
The First International Conference on Operational Research was held in Oxford in 1957 and two years later, upon the establishment of IFORS, counted as the first in the series of IFORS' triennial conferences. The proceedings of the Oxford meeting include statements summarizing the "OR state-of-affairs" in various countries. In retrospect, the 12-lines long contribution by Erik Jensen, A/S Kastrup Gl~vark (should have been Glasva~rk) is quite amusing. The opening sentences read: "I am quite the wrong person to ask to say anything about operational research in Denmark, because 1 do not know much about operational research. 1 can say, however, that for many years in Denmark it has been a one-man show." A one-man show: indeed it was. The leading part however was played by two men, though at different times. The first one was Agner Krarup Erlang (1878-1929), who, encouraged by the visionary E Johannsen, D.Sc., manager of Copenhagen Telephone Company, joined his staff in 1908 as a scientific collaborator. F. Johannsen himself was the first to introduce probability theory into telephony ( 1907-1908), a line of theoretical and applied research further pursued by Erlang during his twenty years at the Company. If stochastic processes, statistical equilibrium, and queuing theory are ranked among the constituents of theoretical OR and furthermore used for decision making in practice, it is tempting to ask whether OR actually was born in the UK in the late 30's or rather some 25 years earlier in Denmark. The second actor in the one-man show was Arne Jensen ( 1 9 2 0 - ) , actuary at the Copenhagen Telephone Company (1945-1963) before he joined IMSOR (Institute of Mathematical Statistics and OR) established at the Technical University of Denmark in
418
J. Krarup/ European Journal of Operational Research 87 (1995) 415-421
1963, as our first full Professor of OR. Among other achievements, Arne Jensen was instrumental in making Erlang's works available to wider circles [ 1 ], and in promoting our field in various ways under the then internationally accepted name of OR. Furthermore, Arne Jensen served as the first president of DORS (Danish OR Society) from 1962 to 1970 and as President of IFORS (1971-1974). "What's in a name? that which we call a rose By any other name would smell as sweet." Shakespeare (Romeo and Juliet, Act I1,2) Riding on a wave of enthusiasm, DORS remained for several years a focal point for Danish OR people. One can say that DORS played the same role in Denmark at that time as EURO does today for the European OR community. Other OR departments were launched at our universities, business schools, and in private companies. OR was furthermore promoted via a number of consulting finns. Also new terms were coined. Thus, the word datalogy was proposed in 1966 as an apt characterization of the branch of science known elsewhere as computer science. DIKU (Datalogisk Institut, K0benhavns Universitet), now translated into English as Department of Computer Science, University of Copenhagen, was founded in 1970. What's in a name? We never succeeded in exporting the term datalogy to the outside world. Equally unsuccessful was the importation of the term OR. A "datalog" (computer scientist) is nowadays a recognized profession in Denmark like a medical doctor, whereas an "operations analyst" is not - and possibly never was. What's in a name? No course is taught at DIKU anymore under the heading "OR" as it once was. IMSOR has recently been swallowed by the larger "IMM" (Institute of Mathematical Modelling). And DORS, like most of its European sister societies, can only envy the UK OR Society which, thanks to a fortunate ability to attract both theorists and practitioners, has gained and maintained a unique position. Also ORSIS deserves special mention in this context: according to the Final Programme, ORSIS has today over 250 members, about one-third of whom are in academia, and the rest in industry, business, and public organizations. Why are some member societies so successful whereas others are suffering from stagnation or even
fail-offs - a question for EURO to investigate? Is it true, as expressed by Past President Jaap Spronk, that OR, instead of being considered as an academic discipline, should rather be viewed as a very fertile mother which has given birth to many beautiful children? Many beautiful children have actually been born. Regardless of the name under which the field is marketed, its substance has a great appeal. Hordes of today's students are attracted by courses and further studies on various aspects of model building, decision support, and optimization. Lots of computer scientists in parallel programming, computational complexity, or algorithmics are essentially discrete optimizers. Quantitative methods form a major ingredient of the curricula of most MBA courses. Highly talented "young, promising researchers" are facing strong competition when applying for participation in a EURO Summer Institute. Furthermore, what the field has to offer has become an accepted planning tool to an abundance of private companies and public enterprises. Even in periods of recession and relatively high unemployment, career opportunities seem fairly promising provided that the students' basic training in OR is supplemented by a substantial proportion of computer science, management science or economics. Further credence to this postulate, though seen from the other side of the Atlantic, can be found in Letter from the President, No. 10, 1991, by W.S. Pierskalla, President of IFORS (1992-1994) from which the following paragraphs are excerpted: In the June 1990 issue of Money magazine, M. Morris wrote about the '15 Fast-Track Careers': The Hottest Job in the Next Decade Will Fatten Your Bank Account and Enrich Your Life. 'Operations Research Analyst' was one of these 15 careers. Indeed the U.S. Department of Labor projects an increase in OR analysts in the U.S. from 55,000 persons (1990) to 85,000 persons (year 2000).
Not to be forgotten It is not an objective of EURO to take political measures and no such measures were ever taken throughout the 20 years. It is not forbidden, however, to express concern for those of our colleagues who, in one
J. Krarup/ European Journal of Operational Research 87 (1995) 415-421
way or another, are victims of political conflicts. Once a group of such victims was known as the refusnik scientists, that is, Jewish scientists who had applied for permission to leave the Soviet Union but who had been refused this permission. Refusniks were normally demoted to low-level jobs or lost their scientific positions altogether. Some of them had their academic degrees removed retroactively, some were in labour camps or exile. In all cases they were cut off from normal interaction with other scientists. Having participated in the International Moscow Refusnik Seminar in December 1988, held under abnormal conditions in private homes, and in agreement with the EURO Executive Committee, I found it most appropriate at the closing session at EURO X (Belgrade, 1989) to choose the refusnik scientists as the subject for my address. Three years later, at EURO XII (Helsinki, 1992), it seemed equally appropriate to let thoughts go to colleagues and friends in the different parts of former Yugoslavia. Still today, we have unresolved conflicts on European soil. Regular correspondence - at least as regular as the conditions permit - with various people here and there leaves no doubt as to some of our fellow scientists' struggles for their daily bread, let alone their survival as scientists. Moral support on a personal basis is but a modest step. Likewise, a single issue of EJOR in the mail now and then or the inclusion in mailing lists for future issues of the EURO Bulletin and similar periodicals is far from being a lifebelt, but it is a sign of life from an outside world to which they otherwise have but limited access. EURO as such can hardly do much more. Let me just suggest that the EURO community keeps this issue in mind.
The next generation Now to a more encouraging subject: investment in the future, concern for the most precious raw material, the next generation! Here, the future should be easier to predict. Among the instruments introduced by J.-P. Brans in 1984, none has had a greater impact on the next generation than the EURO Summer Institutes (ESIs) designed for carefully selected groups of promising young scientists. To keep this series alive and preserve its flavour
•
419
;-~.~- ,~w.-~.~- \
The next generation ...
is the best guarantor of the future. ESIs were once annual events, 1990 being the only exception. Now, three ESIs may be approved in any two-year period. They will furthermore be supplemented by Winter Institutes, of which the first one will be organized in Austria in 1996. Another EURO instrument having "the next generation" as its target group is the series of young persons' OR conferences, later called EURO Prime (Up) which are open to persons up to 35 years of age. The aim of the/_)p is to provide a means for young OR workers in Europe to meet in a less formal and less expensive environment than that of the traditional EURO K conferences. It is envisaged that U~s will be held every three years, each time in a year where IFORS has a triennial conference and EURO none. According to the rules, nobody can participate in an ESI more than once in her/his lifetime. This rule, however, applies to the "regular" participants only, whereas senior people acting as advisers, guest lecturers, etc. may enjoy the privilege of several appearances. Both J.-P. Brans and I have been heavily and enthusiastically involved in a number of ESIs. We wish we may qualify for yet another some day in the future ...
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J. Krarup/European Journal of Operational Research 87 (1995) 415-421
Money, money, money Enthusiasm, good will, and the dedication of many are important ingredients to run an association like EURO, but are not enough. With the surplus made at the EURO K conferences as the sole source of income, EURO was once financially vulnerable. To enable EURO to carry out a wide range of activities in support of its objectives, different options for raising additional income were permanently on the agenda at several Executive Committee (EC) meetings. It appeared quite unrealistic to increase the fees for conferences or to levy a sufficiently large annual subscription on member societies. A third possibility was then to investigate whether EURO could benefit financially from the commercial value of EJOR. EURO-EJOR-Elsevier relations were by far the most difficult issue dealt with during my presidency. After several iterations, an agreement between Elsevier and EURO, valid for ten years, was eventually signed in March 1990. Unless the present activity level is dramatically expanded, no financial problems are envisaged until the agreement with Elsevier is to be renegotiated. Another aspect of financing future activities should also be mentioned. Dr. Rosalie Zobel, Head of Unit, European Commission, Directorate-General III - Industry, gave a thought-provoking lecture shortly before this Closing Session. "Technologies for Business Processes" is a new initiative of the European Union's In-
Money, money,money
formation Technologies R&D Programme (ESPRIT). It aims to support the change and transformation of European enterprises to enable them to compete effectively worldwide. A closer link between the European Commission and EURO would be most welcome. Exactly how EURO can act as a channel between the European Commission and the European OR community is difficult to predict. But the long-term catalytic effect of Dr. Zobel's address should not be underrated. Expectations for the future: that EURO will remain a financially sound organization and that the connection with the European Commission will prove to be a useful gateway to new courses of action in the promotion of OR.
Paolo's band Eleven EURO instruments, different by nature but tuned to play the same music: in fact we have by now a nice EURO orchestra (or Paolo's Band, for the time being). A good question however was raised at the Presidents' luncheon: when will EURO have a female president? Once upon a time, I enjoyed two years of compulsory military service in a purely male environment. Five years were spent with semi-annual daylong meetings assembling men only at NATO's Special Programme Panel for Systems Science. The large class rooms at the Technical University were in 1956 flooded with up to 500 male students and 3 girls. 2025 years ago, DIKU had about 30% female students as opposed to nowadays where computer science mainly seems to attract male computer freaks. On the other hand, it offers some consolation that my medical doctor, my dentist, our local mayor, and my employer well known as H.M. Queen Margaret II - do all belong to the opposite sex. It is my firm conviction that the most stimulating working climate under almost all circumstances is achieved via mixed groups. EURO is no exception in this respect. We have had a female secretary, several female vice presidents, and female organizers of EURO K conferences, Mini EURO conferences, and ESIs. It should not be overly difficult to identify a qualified, female president. Prediction: this will happen soon.
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J. Krarup/ European Journal of Operational Research 87 (1995) 415-421
Happy anniversary T h e very n e a r future of EURO is easy to predict: this night's celebrations. ;1D,-1
,-I-[ 1 TI
and
[] ~
~m
Israel: may we be back soon again.
References [ 1] Brockmeyer, E., Halstrom, H.L., and Jensen, A., "The life and works of A.K. Erlang", Transactions of the Danish Academy of Technical Sciences 2 (1948).
HAPPY ANNIVERSARY!
ELSEVIER
European Journal of Operational Research 87 (1995) 415-421
EURO 20th Anniversary: The prospective future* Jakob Krarup* DIKU (Department of Computer Science, University of Copenhagen), Universitetsparken 1, DK-21O0 Copenhagen, Denmark
The past, the present - and the future
EURO's founding father and first president, H.-J. Zimmermann, has now given an account of the development that eventually led to the establishment of EURO 20 years ago. Furthermore, the indefatigable EURO-nist, the originator of several EURO instruments and our fourth president, J.-P. Brans, has covered the intervening 20 years. Only the prospective future remains to conclude this presidential trilogy. ALIO is EURO's South American counterpart, one of the four so-called regional groupings of IFORS. An ALIO-EURO Workshop on Practical Combinatorial Optimization was held in Brazil in 1989. Some of the EURO K conferences have been organized in Europe in cooperation with TIMS whereas a TIMS-EURO (or INFORMS-EURO) conference somewhere in North America has remained but is a subject of discussion. EURO XIV is thus the first major EURO-event held outside Europe. It is a great challenge for a member society to host a EURO conference and even more so when it coincides with the 20th anniversary of our Association. Judging from the immensely intense days we have spent together in a unique setting and in a country which for many reasons means so much to so many, it is my firm belief that all expectations have been fully met. Congratulations to ORSIS for the efforts made and let my appreciation go to Adir Pridor, Roman Slowinski, and last but not least, to Zilla Sinuany-Stern and her crew. No doubt: EURO XIV will become a precious memory forever. * Closing Address, EURO XIV, Jerusalem, 6th July 1995. * President of EURO 1989-1990. E-mail: [email protected] Elsevier Science B.V. SSD! 0 3 7 7 - 2 2 1 7 ( 9 5 ) 0 0 2
1I- 1
To make predictions is difficult - particularly about the future (R. Storm P., Danish humorist and cartoonist)
It's difficult to make p r e d i c t i o n s . . .
Outside of Europe for the first t i m e . . , will the next 20 years witness a EURO conference in South Africa? To make predictions is difficult as the following two examples will show. Fig. 1 displays the duration ( a ) - ( d ) of a certain human activity over time. It was once possible in a rather remote past to conduct this activity within about two
J. Krarup/ European Journal of" Operational Research 87 (1995) 415~121
416
pie have reacted at that time? Should the prophet have been praised for such bold visions or rather have had his head examined?
duration
Open problems = 2 days
= 2
hours .
.
.
.
.
!i
= 2 minutes~
(d~ "~N
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . ~. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
~ ("~)) ~-. . . . . . . >
time
1
Fig. 1. The duration of a certain human activity over time.
years (a). Much later the same task was carried out in about two months (b). Relative!y shortly thereafter, about two days (c) would suffice and human beings of today need less than two hours (d). Suppose now that a good student, well trained in forecasting, is being asked: when will about two minutes (?) be sufficient? Simple extrapolation would say "tomorrow". However, don't jump to conclusions, but note first that the human activity considered actually is "around the world". Fern~o Magalh~es, better known as Fernando Magellan, left Sevilla in September 1519 with a fleet of five ships of which only "Victoria" managed to return to Spain three years after. "About two years" (a) is not entirely wrong. Awful weather conditions and other difficulties delayed the voyage for several months. As the story goes, a certain Phileas Fogg repeated Magellan's effort in 1872 in 80 days less one second or in about two months (b). Any commercial airline today needs no more than two days (c) and spacecraft have since 1956 carried human beings around the world in about 90 minutes (d). Will new.technological developments in a foreseeable future really be capable of reducing the travel time to about two minutes? Another example: Suppose that a prophet, let us say, some 10 years ago, had predicted the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the reunification of East and West Germany, the emergence of the new democracies, the potential new members of NATO, and the present positions of, for example, Vaclav Havel, Lech Watesa, Nelson Mandela, and Yassir Arafat. How would peo-
EURO's activities have expanded considerably since 1975. During its 20 years of existence, new EURO instruments have been added whenever needed whereas no instrument as yet has been abandoned. By now, EURO has 11 instruments. Can more be expected? A candid assessment of the impact of each instrument and its estimated potential in the future would take me too far. Instead, only a few will be briefly commented on in the sequel. It should also be noted that EURO still is facing a number of ongoing problems.
The European Journal of Operational Research (EJOR) has managed to become recognized among the finest professional journals worldwide within OR. To maintain (or even increase) the present circulation, however, may be difficult to sustain due to the high subscription price. For the moment, the members of EURO are the national societies. Can easier (cheaper) access to EJOR be obtained if EURO allows for individual membership, that is, if the members of EURO are the members of the national societies? EURO has an Office Manager, Ph. Van Asbroeck, who in addition serves as editor of the quarterly EURO Bulletin, now also available on-line on WWW. A permanent secretariat, however, has for long been a subject of much discussion, but is likely to materialize in a not too distant future. Another hot issue is the rapid changes of the political borders within Europe. Obstetric aid to potential new member societies is much called for.
The EURO K conferences One of our past presidents holds the opinion that access to information, for example via WWW, will reduce the attendance at future EURO K conferences. It is true - as was pointed out by H.-J. Zimmermann - that EURO was established at a time when we were without fax machines, without e-mail, without WWW, etc. Thanks to such devices, however, it is equally true
J. Krarup/ European Journal of Operational Research 87 (1995) 415~121
that much can be achieved today without leaving one's own desk. But not everything: access to information alone cannot replace interaction among human beings. I believe therefore that future EURO K conferences still do have a mission and will maintain their position as the main EURO forum for exchange of views on professional matters. A EURO K conference is not a specialist meeting but must in practice accept papers on literally any OR subject regardless of the theme announced. "OR: Towards Intelligent Decision Support", the theme of EURO XIV, has undoubtedly influenced the Programme Committee's work as far as the semi-plenary papers are concerned but hardly the bulk of contributed papers. On the other hand, ample room must be made available for contributed papers since financial support otherwise may be difficult for the participants to obtain. EURO XIII (Glasgow, 1994) had none less than 34 parallel streams in all, with 7 sessions in each stream. The final programme for EURO was organized into 27 sessions in parallel. Disregarding plenary and semiplenary sessions, lunch and coffee breaks, these numbers mean roughly that a participant glued to his seat throughout a long day can attend at most 3-4% of the lecture hall activities. And yet, almost all EURO K conferences have been well attended! I think people keep showing up for at least three good reasons: ( 1 ) the scientific programme, with special emphasis on well-prepared and well-documented tutorials, plenary or semi-plenary papers plus a handful of selected parallel sessions; (2) access to make oneself visible to the scientific community via presentation of a paper; (3) the social relations in general: people "join the party" - because everyone else they want to meet does likewise! Furthermore, these events provide good opportunities for organizing supplementary meetings (working groups, editorial boards, EURO business meetings, etc.), since people are present anyway. Items ( 1 ) - ( 3 ) are here not ranked in order of significance; for example, it is likely that oldtimers and newcomers may have quite different preferences. Finally, the effect of an attractive location, preferably with possibilities for preor post-conference excursions, should not be ignored. The conference fee is waived for EURO Gold Medal
417
laureates and students up to a certain age are normally accepted at a reduced registration fee. Apart from some very rare exceptions, everyone else will have to pay the fee in full. However, there is a steadily increasing number of retired friends of EURO who still enjoy maintaining their friendship. Full fee - or can EURO afford to offer something more civilized in the future as an accolade for their contributions over many years?
OR
or ...
?
The First International Conference on Operational Research was held in Oxford in 1957 and two years later, upon the establishment of IFORS, counted as the first in the series of IFORS' triennial conferences. The proceedings of the Oxford meeting include statements summarizing the "OR state-of-affairs" in various countries. In retrospect, the 12-lines long contribution by Erik Jensen, A/S Kastrup Gl~vark (should have been Glasva~rk) is quite amusing. The opening sentences read: "I am quite the wrong person to ask to say anything about operational research in Denmark, because 1 do not know much about operational research. 1 can say, however, that for many years in Denmark it has been a one-man show." A one-man show: indeed it was. The leading part however was played by two men, though at different times. The first one was Agner Krarup Erlang (1878-1929), who, encouraged by the visionary E Johannsen, D.Sc., manager of Copenhagen Telephone Company, joined his staff in 1908 as a scientific collaborator. F. Johannsen himself was the first to introduce probability theory into telephony ( 1907-1908), a line of theoretical and applied research further pursued by Erlang during his twenty years at the Company. If stochastic processes, statistical equilibrium, and queuing theory are ranked among the constituents of theoretical OR and furthermore used for decision making in practice, it is tempting to ask whether OR actually was born in the UK in the late 30's or rather some 25 years earlier in Denmark. The second actor in the one-man show was Arne Jensen ( 1 9 2 0 - ) , actuary at the Copenhagen Telephone Company (1945-1963) before he joined IMSOR (Institute of Mathematical Statistics and OR) established at the Technical University of Denmark in
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1963, as our first full Professor of OR. Among other achievements, Arne Jensen was instrumental in making Erlang's works available to wider circles [ 1 ], and in promoting our field in various ways under the then internationally accepted name of OR. Furthermore, Arne Jensen served as the first president of DORS (Danish OR Society) from 1962 to 1970 and as President of IFORS (1971-1974). "What's in a name? that which we call a rose By any other name would smell as sweet." Shakespeare (Romeo and Juliet, Act I1,2) Riding on a wave of enthusiasm, DORS remained for several years a focal point for Danish OR people. One can say that DORS played the same role in Denmark at that time as EURO does today for the European OR community. Other OR departments were launched at our universities, business schools, and in private companies. OR was furthermore promoted via a number of consulting finns. Also new terms were coined. Thus, the word datalogy was proposed in 1966 as an apt characterization of the branch of science known elsewhere as computer science. DIKU (Datalogisk Institut, K0benhavns Universitet), now translated into English as Department of Computer Science, University of Copenhagen, was founded in 1970. What's in a name? We never succeeded in exporting the term datalogy to the outside world. Equally unsuccessful was the importation of the term OR. A "datalog" (computer scientist) is nowadays a recognized profession in Denmark like a medical doctor, whereas an "operations analyst" is not - and possibly never was. What's in a name? No course is taught at DIKU anymore under the heading "OR" as it once was. IMSOR has recently been swallowed by the larger "IMM" (Institute of Mathematical Modelling). And DORS, like most of its European sister societies, can only envy the UK OR Society which, thanks to a fortunate ability to attract both theorists and practitioners, has gained and maintained a unique position. Also ORSIS deserves special mention in this context: according to the Final Programme, ORSIS has today over 250 members, about one-third of whom are in academia, and the rest in industry, business, and public organizations. Why are some member societies so successful whereas others are suffering from stagnation or even
fail-offs - a question for EURO to investigate? Is it true, as expressed by Past President Jaap Spronk, that OR, instead of being considered as an academic discipline, should rather be viewed as a very fertile mother which has given birth to many beautiful children? Many beautiful children have actually been born. Regardless of the name under which the field is marketed, its substance has a great appeal. Hordes of today's students are attracted by courses and further studies on various aspects of model building, decision support, and optimization. Lots of computer scientists in parallel programming, computational complexity, or algorithmics are essentially discrete optimizers. Quantitative methods form a major ingredient of the curricula of most MBA courses. Highly talented "young, promising researchers" are facing strong competition when applying for participation in a EURO Summer Institute. Furthermore, what the field has to offer has become an accepted planning tool to an abundance of private companies and public enterprises. Even in periods of recession and relatively high unemployment, career opportunities seem fairly promising provided that the students' basic training in OR is supplemented by a substantial proportion of computer science, management science or economics. Further credence to this postulate, though seen from the other side of the Atlantic, can be found in Letter from the President, No. 10, 1991, by W.S. Pierskalla, President of IFORS (1992-1994) from which the following paragraphs are excerpted: In the June 1990 issue of Money magazine, M. Morris wrote about the '15 Fast-Track Careers': The Hottest Job in the Next Decade Will Fatten Your Bank Account and Enrich Your Life. 'Operations Research Analyst' was one of these 15 careers. Indeed the U.S. Department of Labor projects an increase in OR analysts in the U.S. from 55,000 persons (1990) to 85,000 persons (year 2000).
Not to be forgotten It is not an objective of EURO to take political measures and no such measures were ever taken throughout the 20 years. It is not forbidden, however, to express concern for those of our colleagues who, in one
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way or another, are victims of political conflicts. Once a group of such victims was known as the refusnik scientists, that is, Jewish scientists who had applied for permission to leave the Soviet Union but who had been refused this permission. Refusniks were normally demoted to low-level jobs or lost their scientific positions altogether. Some of them had their academic degrees removed retroactively, some were in labour camps or exile. In all cases they were cut off from normal interaction with other scientists. Having participated in the International Moscow Refusnik Seminar in December 1988, held under abnormal conditions in private homes, and in agreement with the EURO Executive Committee, I found it most appropriate at the closing session at EURO X (Belgrade, 1989) to choose the refusnik scientists as the subject for my address. Three years later, at EURO XII (Helsinki, 1992), it seemed equally appropriate to let thoughts go to colleagues and friends in the different parts of former Yugoslavia. Still today, we have unresolved conflicts on European soil. Regular correspondence - at least as regular as the conditions permit - with various people here and there leaves no doubt as to some of our fellow scientists' struggles for their daily bread, let alone their survival as scientists. Moral support on a personal basis is but a modest step. Likewise, a single issue of EJOR in the mail now and then or the inclusion in mailing lists for future issues of the EURO Bulletin and similar periodicals is far from being a lifebelt, but it is a sign of life from an outside world to which they otherwise have but limited access. EURO as such can hardly do much more. Let me just suggest that the EURO community keeps this issue in mind.
The next generation Now to a more encouraging subject: investment in the future, concern for the most precious raw material, the next generation! Here, the future should be easier to predict. Among the instruments introduced by J.-P. Brans in 1984, none has had a greater impact on the next generation than the EURO Summer Institutes (ESIs) designed for carefully selected groups of promising young scientists. To keep this series alive and preserve its flavour
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The next generation ...
is the best guarantor of the future. ESIs were once annual events, 1990 being the only exception. Now, three ESIs may be approved in any two-year period. They will furthermore be supplemented by Winter Institutes, of which the first one will be organized in Austria in 1996. Another EURO instrument having "the next generation" as its target group is the series of young persons' OR conferences, later called EURO Prime (Up) which are open to persons up to 35 years of age. The aim of the/_)p is to provide a means for young OR workers in Europe to meet in a less formal and less expensive environment than that of the traditional EURO K conferences. It is envisaged that U~s will be held every three years, each time in a year where IFORS has a triennial conference and EURO none. According to the rules, nobody can participate in an ESI more than once in her/his lifetime. This rule, however, applies to the "regular" participants only, whereas senior people acting as advisers, guest lecturers, etc. may enjoy the privilege of several appearances. Both J.-P. Brans and I have been heavily and enthusiastically involved in a number of ESIs. We wish we may qualify for yet another some day in the future ...
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Money, money, money Enthusiasm, good will, and the dedication of many are important ingredients to run an association like EURO, but are not enough. With the surplus made at the EURO K conferences as the sole source of income, EURO was once financially vulnerable. To enable EURO to carry out a wide range of activities in support of its objectives, different options for raising additional income were permanently on the agenda at several Executive Committee (EC) meetings. It appeared quite unrealistic to increase the fees for conferences or to levy a sufficiently large annual subscription on member societies. A third possibility was then to investigate whether EURO could benefit financially from the commercial value of EJOR. EURO-EJOR-Elsevier relations were by far the most difficult issue dealt with during my presidency. After several iterations, an agreement between Elsevier and EURO, valid for ten years, was eventually signed in March 1990. Unless the present activity level is dramatically expanded, no financial problems are envisaged until the agreement with Elsevier is to be renegotiated. Another aspect of financing future activities should also be mentioned. Dr. Rosalie Zobel, Head of Unit, European Commission, Directorate-General III - Industry, gave a thought-provoking lecture shortly before this Closing Session. "Technologies for Business Processes" is a new initiative of the European Union's In-
Money, money,money
formation Technologies R&D Programme (ESPRIT). It aims to support the change and transformation of European enterprises to enable them to compete effectively worldwide. A closer link between the European Commission and EURO would be most welcome. Exactly how EURO can act as a channel between the European Commission and the European OR community is difficult to predict. But the long-term catalytic effect of Dr. Zobel's address should not be underrated. Expectations for the future: that EURO will remain a financially sound organization and that the connection with the European Commission will prove to be a useful gateway to new courses of action in the promotion of OR.
Paolo's band Eleven EURO instruments, different by nature but tuned to play the same music: in fact we have by now a nice EURO orchestra (or Paolo's Band, for the time being). A good question however was raised at the Presidents' luncheon: when will EURO have a female president? Once upon a time, I enjoyed two years of compulsory military service in a purely male environment. Five years were spent with semi-annual daylong meetings assembling men only at NATO's Special Programme Panel for Systems Science. The large class rooms at the Technical University were in 1956 flooded with up to 500 male students and 3 girls. 2025 years ago, DIKU had about 30% female students as opposed to nowadays where computer science mainly seems to attract male computer freaks. On the other hand, it offers some consolation that my medical doctor, my dentist, our local mayor, and my employer well known as H.M. Queen Margaret II - do all belong to the opposite sex. It is my firm conviction that the most stimulating working climate under almost all circumstances is achieved via mixed groups. EURO is no exception in this respect. We have had a female secretary, several female vice presidents, and female organizers of EURO K conferences, Mini EURO conferences, and ESIs. It should not be overly difficult to identify a qualified, female president. Prediction: this will happen soon.
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Happy anniversary T h e very n e a r future of EURO is easy to predict: this night's celebrations. ;1D,-1
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and
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Israel: may we be back soon again.
References [ 1] Brockmeyer, E., Halstrom, H.L., and Jensen, A., "The life and works of A.K. Erlang", Transactions of the Danish Academy of Technical Sciences 2 (1948).
HAPPY ANNIVERSARY!