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Europe can model its way out of crisis
This week
REUTERS/Marko Djurica
INSIGHT Greek turmoil
–Where next after Greece’s clear “no”?
Europe can model its way out of crisis Debora MacKenzie
EUROPE faces political uncertainty after the “no” vote in Greece’s bailout referendum on 5 July. But a group of mathematicians and economists says we needn’t have reached this point. With no reliable way of gauging the impact of different policy options in the eurozone, Europe’s leaders were always doomed to indecision, the researchers say. They have been working on
Everything’s coming up roses with scent gene NOW we can stop and smell the roses once more. The discovery of a gene largely responsible for the delicate scent of the rose could help restore the fragrance accidentally bred out of varieties cultivated for beauty. “In roses used for the cut-flower market, there is rarely a scent,” says Sylvie Baudino of the University of Lyon in Saint-Etienne, France. “We hope that we can help breeders restore more fragrances.” 14 | NewScientist | 11 July 2015
computer models that could help, but their funding – ironically, from the European Commission – has run out. The choices for Greece come down to some mix of austerity – deep cuts in government spending plus institutional reform – and debt writeoff. The latter is something that several leading economists and even the International Monetary Fund agree is needed. In voting “no”, the Greek people rejected further austerity.
Baudino and her team compared the genomes of two rose varieties: the strong-smelling Papa Meilland and the weakly scented Rouge Meilland. Papa Meilland produces high levels of organic compounds called monoterpenes, molecules that create scents such as mint and citronella. The petals of the fragrant Papa Meilland appeared to express one gene in particular, RhNUDX1, known in other organisms to produce an enzyme that helps cells handle stress. The researchers wondered if this enzyme could also be responsible for emitting the rose’s monoterpenes. They knocked out RhNUDX1 in another variety of scented rose, and
Doyne Farmer of the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico says leaders have no way to work out quantitatively which mix of solutions works best, so fall back on their own political ideologies. Deadlock ensues. “Leaders are flying the economy by the seat of their pants,” he says. What might help are agent-based models (ABMs), which use raw number-crunching power to simulate people and institutions that don’t necessarily behave according to economists’ assumptions. “I believe that ABMs have the potential to analyse the kind of questions [facing Greece] more than current mainstream macroeconomic models,” says Paul De Grauwe of the
found that their new flowers hardly emitted the telltale compounds. In another experiment, the team crossed compound-rich Old Blush roses with a less aromatic variety, Rosa wichurana. Only the progeny that produced the enzyme had sweet-smelling blooms (Science, doi.org/5z8). Baudino thinks the finding could help breed the perfect rose: one that’s not only beautiful and long-lasting, but fragrant, too. Breeders could quickly cultivate the desired hybrids
“For me a flower that doesn’t smell is dead. This gene can bring back scents we lost through breeding”
London School of Economics. In 2011, the European Commission launched the complexity research initiative for systemic instabilities (CRISIS) in order to develop macroeconomic ABMs. Its simulations cannot yet encompass whole countries, but they can model smaller scenarios involving financial networks, such as that faced in 2013 by Cypriot banks owed money by Greece. “The question is, who pays for such debts?” says Farmer, scientific coordinator of CRISIS. Their model showed different policies led to speedier recovery depending on overall economic conditions. Letting a struggling bank be bought out by other banks worked best in good times. In bad times, either a taxfunded bailout or letting the struggling bank’s depositors lose their investments worked best. No single solution was optimal. ABMs often reveal systemic economic changes that would otherwise go unpredicted, says Domenico Delli Gatti of the Catholic University in Milan, Italy, also at CRISIS. Expanding the model to whole nations would make it two or three times more complex, says Farmer. But it might suggest why austerity has apparently worked in Ireland but may not in Greece. Creating better ABMs could be a remarkably cheap way to help stabilise the eurozone. “We’d need €20 to €30 million and another five to 10 years,” says Farmer. n
by testing for signs of the gene in the plant’s leaves, even before the rose has flowered. French perfumer Martin Gras is excited by the possibilities. “For me, as an old-time perfumer, a flower that doesn’t smell is dead,” he says. “RhNUDX1 can bring back what we lost.” Natalia Dudareva, at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana, thinks the discovery could also help explain how plants communicate with each other and pollinators. “These compounds are not only for our pleasure. Maybe one day we will use this for biological management.” Aviva Rutkin n
REUTERS/Marko Djurica
INSIGHT Greek turmoil
–Where next after Greece’s clear “no”?
Europe can model its way out of crisis Debora MacKenzie
EUROPE faces political uncertainty after the “no” vote in Greece’s bailout referendum on 5 July. But a group of mathematicians and economists says we needn’t have reached this point. With no reliable way of gauging the impact of different policy options in the eurozone, Europe’s leaders were always doomed to indecision, the researchers say. They have been working on
Everything’s coming up roses with scent gene NOW we can stop and smell the roses once more. The discovery of a gene largely responsible for the delicate scent of the rose could help restore the fragrance accidentally bred out of varieties cultivated for beauty. “In roses used for the cut-flower market, there is rarely a scent,” says Sylvie Baudino of the University of Lyon in Saint-Etienne, France. “We hope that we can help breeders restore more fragrances.” 14 | NewScientist | 11 July 2015
computer models that could help, but their funding – ironically, from the European Commission – has run out. The choices for Greece come down to some mix of austerity – deep cuts in government spending plus institutional reform – and debt writeoff. The latter is something that several leading economists and even the International Monetary Fund agree is needed. In voting “no”, the Greek people rejected further austerity.
Baudino and her team compared the genomes of two rose varieties: the strong-smelling Papa Meilland and the weakly scented Rouge Meilland. Papa Meilland produces high levels of organic compounds called monoterpenes, molecules that create scents such as mint and citronella. The petals of the fragrant Papa Meilland appeared to express one gene in particular, RhNUDX1, known in other organisms to produce an enzyme that helps cells handle stress. The researchers wondered if this enzyme could also be responsible for emitting the rose’s monoterpenes. They knocked out RhNUDX1 in another variety of scented rose, and
Doyne Farmer of the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico says leaders have no way to work out quantitatively which mix of solutions works best, so fall back on their own political ideologies. Deadlock ensues. “Leaders are flying the economy by the seat of their pants,” he says. What might help are agent-based models (ABMs), which use raw number-crunching power to simulate people and institutions that don’t necessarily behave according to economists’ assumptions. “I believe that ABMs have the potential to analyse the kind of questions [facing Greece] more than current mainstream macroeconomic models,” says Paul De Grauwe of the
found that their new flowers hardly emitted the telltale compounds. In another experiment, the team crossed compound-rich Old Blush roses with a less aromatic variety, Rosa wichurana. Only the progeny that produced the enzyme had sweet-smelling blooms (Science, doi.org/5z8). Baudino thinks the finding could help breed the perfect rose: one that’s not only beautiful and long-lasting, but fragrant, too. Breeders could quickly cultivate the desired hybrids
“For me a flower that doesn’t smell is dead. This gene can bring back scents we lost through breeding”
London School of Economics. In 2011, the European Commission launched the complexity research initiative for systemic instabilities (CRISIS) in order to develop macroeconomic ABMs. Its simulations cannot yet encompass whole countries, but they can model smaller scenarios involving financial networks, such as that faced in 2013 by Cypriot banks owed money by Greece. “The question is, who pays for such debts?” says Farmer, scientific coordinator of CRISIS. Their model showed different policies led to speedier recovery depending on overall economic conditions. Letting a struggling bank be bought out by other banks worked best in good times. In bad times, either a taxfunded bailout or letting the struggling bank’s depositors lose their investments worked best. No single solution was optimal. ABMs often reveal systemic economic changes that would otherwise go unpredicted, says Domenico Delli Gatti of the Catholic University in Milan, Italy, also at CRISIS. Expanding the model to whole nations would make it two or three times more complex, says Farmer. But it might suggest why austerity has apparently worked in Ireland but may not in Greece. Creating better ABMs could be a remarkably cheap way to help stabilise the eurozone. “We’d need €20 to €30 million and another five to 10 years,” says Farmer. n
by testing for signs of the gene in the plant’s leaves, even before the rose has flowered. French perfumer Martin Gras is excited by the possibilities. “For me, as an old-time perfumer, a flower that doesn’t smell is dead,” he says. “RhNUDX1 can bring back what we lost.” Natalia Dudareva, at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana, thinks the discovery could also help explain how plants communicate with each other and pollinators. “These compounds are not only for our pleasure. Maybe one day we will use this for biological management.” Aviva Rutkin n