- Email: [email protected]
European futures texts
361
ANNOTATED
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Most futures bibliographies tend to overemphasize US sources, since the USA has tended to dominate the field for some time. The largest futures organization (the are more futures institutes, World Future Society) is based there. There researchers, scholars, consultants, SF writers and so on working in the USA than in most other countries combined. Those wishing to access the resulting literature will find the monthly Future Survey or the Future Survey Annual invaluable. However, a great deal of good work is produced in other places. Hence, for this special issue, it was decided to look further afield. The following references have been written by Kjell Dahle, Satish Seth, Tony Stevenson, Wendy Schultz and Graham May from Norway, India, Australia, Hawaii and the UK, respectively. The result is certainly not comprehensive, but it provides a clear indication that the field of futures study and research is alive and well in many places around the world. In time, and perhaps with the help of UNESCO, there will be a more universal guide to futures literature from this wider, global arena. (Rick Slaughter)
European futures
Kjell
texts
Dahle
Paul Ekins (editor), Wealth Beyond Measure. An Atlas of New Economics (London, Caia, 1992). This highly illustrated guide presents in layperson’s terms the principal features of ‘new economics’, also called ‘green economics’. Contrary to the visions of mainstream economists and politicians, the new economics movement puts forward that ‘recession recovery’ must accord with the imperatives of sustainable development. Participatory democracy and economic justice are other important objectives within new economics, Ekins is a cofounder of the New Economics Foundation and of The Other Economic Summit (TOES). He is also Research Director of the
Kjell Dahle, IS Chief Editor of the press agency Senterpressch in Oslo. He can be contacted at Akersbakken 19, N-0172 Oslo, Norway.
FUTURES April 1993
Right Livelihood Nobel Prize’).
Ward
(the
‘Alternative
Christopher Freeman and Marie Jahoda (editors), World Futures. The Great Debate (London, Martin Robertson, 1978) Three aims guided this interdisciplinary study. First, to contribute to forecasting methodology, through combining quantitative and qualitative approaches. Second, to examine whether a future that the authors could find desirable had any chance of realization within the next 50 years or so (it had). Third, to offer some ideas for actions and choices that could affect the fate of the next couple of generations. The Limits to Growth and other global futures studies of the 1970s are critically examined. 12 possible scenarios are outlined by combining three ‘worldviews’ neoclassic-conservative, Keynesianreformist, and Marxist-radical) with different profiles on equality and economic growth. The study was done at the
362
Annotated
bibliography
Science Policy Research Unit, University Sussex.
of
Johan Caltung, The True Worlds. A Transnational Perspective (New York, The Free Press, 1980) The author seeks to provide intellectual tools for coming to grips with problems which prevent us from realizing our goals. Four major crises of humanity are analysed: war, poverty, social injustice and environmental decay. The analysis of the contemporary world system is used as a base for sketching an alternative-a preferred future world order that should be both viable and attainable. This vision is of a diverse, but equitable world society where self-reliant units trade without exploitation. Strategies of change are discussed. Alternative social indicators are operationalized in an appendix. Caltung is a Norwegian professor of social sciences and one of the first presidents of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF). The book was a contribution to the World Order Models Project. Michel Codet, Futures Studies: A Tool-Box for Problem Solving (Paris, Futuribles/ CERPA, 1991) This is a tool-box for ‘applied’ futurists, who want to be both credible and useful to decision makers. The document contains an inventory of available methods for scenario production, including structural analysis morphological (forecasting), analysis, the Delphi method and relevance trees. A scenario is defined as a description of a future situation and the course of events which allows one to move forward from the original situation to the future situation. Scenarios should be relevant, coherent and likely. Codet is a professor at the CNAM. The publication of this work is a part of the ‘Future-oriented studies’ programme (FUTURESCO) of UNESCO. Bertrand de Jouvenel, The Art of Conjecture (New York, Basic Books, 1967; French original: L’art de la conjecture 1964) The author mistrusted pretentious terms such as ‘forecast’, ‘foresight’, ‘prediction’ and ‘futurology’, especially since prognosis makers are often credited with aspirations they do not (or should not!) have. To have futures studies taken seriously, he preferred the unpretentious term ‘conjecture’, which emphasizes the uncertainty of
the field. The intellectual formulation of probable futures is regarded as a piece of art, in the widest possible sense. Through linking historical examples to current problems, the book shows the complexity and unpredictability of society when it comes to making models of the future. Baron de Jouvenel was educated in law, biology and economics, and worked as a journalist and author. He founded the French organization Futuribles, and was the first president of the WFSF. Robert Jungk and Johan Caltung (editors), Mankind 2000 (Oslo, Universitetsforlaget, 1969) The book presents contributions to, and sums up the first world conference on futures studies, held in Oslo in 1967. It was arranged by the institutions of the two editors, lnstitut fur Zukunftsfragen in Vienna and the Peace Research Institute of Oslo. The title of the book is the same as that of the network attempting to coordinate international futures studies before the World Futures Studies Federation was established in 1973. The editors emphasize the participatory aspect of futures studies, which should not be allowed to become elitist. Robert Jungk and Norbert Mullert, Futures Workshops. How to Create Desirable futures (London, Institute for Social Inventions, 1989; German original: Zukunftswerkstitten, 1981) The book presents futures workshops as a method by which ordinary people can be involved in creating possible futures. Criticism, fantasy and realization are important elements in a process where concrete utopias and social inventions are drawn up. Examples show how participants change during the process, and what kinds of ideas and practical results that are achieved. Robert Jungk, born in Berlin in 1913, is the grand old man of European futures studies. He founded the International Futures Library in Salzburg, and was the ‘green’ candidate in the presidential elections of Austria in 1992. Rolf Kreibich, Weert Canzler and Klaus Burmeister, Zukunftsforschung and Politik (Futures research and Politics), (Weinheim, Germany, Beltz, 1991) This study analyses the development of German futures research, leading up to a
FUTURES April 1993
Annotated bibliography
presentation of the state of the art. After a decade with low activity, the situation now looks more promising. The new generation of German futurists has moved the focus from quantitative-oriented prognostics to more normative studies of desirable futures. Comparative analyses of futures studies in France, Sweden and Switzerland are included in the book, which is a result of a project financed by the regional authorities of NorthrheinWestfalia. I. Niels, K. Meyer, Helveg Petersen and Villy Sorensen, Revolt from the Center (London, Marion Boyar, 1982; Danish original: Oprgr fra midten, 1978) The book analyses weaknesses of our current social system, describes the authors’ utopia of a humane society in balance, and discusses ways and means of achieving the goal. Their future society is based democratic responsibility, ~e”rso~~r&edom, ecological balance and solidarity with other groups. The introduction of a ‘citizen’s wage’ is seen as an important reform, eliminating the necessity of paid work to cover minimum costs of living. Those who want a higher material standard have the right to a certain amount of paid work. The book, whose authors include a professor, a liberal politician and an essayist, was a success in Scandinavia. It triggered a broad public debate, and sold more than 100 000 copies only in Denmark. Jim Northcott (editor), Britain in 2070 (London, Policy Studies Institute, 1991) This is a report on how the UK may develop in the next two decades. The authors’ main forecasts are on a ‘most probable’ basis. Three different scenarios are, however, added, identifying potential areas of choice. The first is a market-oriented scenario, the second presents a left-wing, interventionist alternative, and the third illustrates an environmental-oriented approach. The report was produced by a multidisciplinary group at PSI in cooperation with Cambridge Econometrics. Fred Polak, The image of the Future (Amsterdam, Elsevier, 1973; Dutch original: De toekomst is verleden tijd, 1968) The first part (‘The Promised Land’) considers utopias and dystopias from the history of Western civilization. The author
FUTURES April 1993
363
looks at historical leaps which have taken place in the synthesis of contemporary reality and visions of the future. In the second part (‘Iconoclasm of the Images of the Future’), he describes what he sees as a unique lack of convincing images in our own times. The author’s hope for our cultural survival lies in a new development of both utopias and dystopias. Polak was a professor, dealing with law, economy, philosophy and sociology. He was president of ‘Mankind 2000’, and a central figure in Dutch culture, business and politics.
James Robertson, The Sane Alternative. A Choice of Futures (Oxford, 1983, revised edition) The period up to about the year 2010 is seen as a critical period in the history of humankind. Five very different futures, all assumed to be realistic, are presented. The scenarios are ‘business as usual’, ‘disaster’, ‘authoritarian control’ (right- or left-wing) ‘hyper-expansionist (HEY (even bigger toys and more important jobs for the boys), and ‘the sane, humane, ecological (SHE) -a decentralized alternative where the limits to growth are social and psychological, not technical and economic. Most of the book deals with what the fifth, preferred option is like and how it can be created. Robertson, a central figure within the new economics movement, was an adviser to prime minister Macmillan, and has worked later with management consulting and systems analysis.
Ove Sviden and Britt Aniansson (editors), Surprising Futures. Notes from an International Workshop on Long-term World Development (Stockholm, FRN, 1987) During a workshop, ‘Surprises and a sustainable development for the biosphere’, about 20 leading researchers from different countries and disciplines (including Elise Boulding, William C. Clarke and Michel Cadet) drew up five global and regional scenarios up to the year 2075. Four of the scenarios were deliberately given a ‘surprising’ content, although they need not be more unlikely than what is normally called ‘surprise-free’ scenarios (based on ‘conventional wisdom’). The workshop was jointly run by a Swedish research council and the International
364
Annotated bibliography
Institute of Applied (IIASA) in Austria.
Systems
Analysis
To Choose a Future (Stockholm, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 1974; Swedish original: Att vilja framtid, SOU, 1972) The relationship between futures studies and public decision making and planning is a central issue in this report. Alva Myrdal, then a member of the Cabinet, was chairman of a commission set up to give
Indian futures
Satish
advice on the development of futures studies in Sweden. According to its report, futures studies should rather make it possible for people to shape the future than passively allowing it to be shaped for us. Several possible futures therefore need to be presented, to strengthen democratic control over societal development. The report resulted in the establishment of a new governmental organ, the Secretariat for futures studies, the following year.
texts
C. Seth
This bibliographical note is divided into five sections establishing the progression of futures work and thinking in India since 1970. Each section catalogues only an illustrative and not an exhaustive listing. It particularly omits all references to articles pertaining to the future that have appeared in the Indian newspapers and journals, specifically those that appeared in the Indian Review of Management and Future. (I) The Second India series sponsored and funded by the Ford Foundation of India constitutes the earlier futures-related studies of the 1970s. Many individual scholars were entrusted the task of developing descriptive scenarios in areas like industry, housing, energy and so on, on the premise, that by 2000 AD India’s population, would double. Similarly, the Ford Foundation also sponsored studies for different states to catalogue likely sectoral needs and developments up to the year 2000 AD. Only a few Second India national-level studies are available as printed books. Illustratively, see: M. C. Chaturvedi, Second India Studies: Water (New Delhi, The MacMillan Co, 1976) Satlsh C. Seth, EB-166, Maya Enclave, G-8 Area, New Delhi-110 064, India (Tel: 540-2903).
H. Ezekiel, Second India Studies: Industry (New Delhi, The MacMillan Co, 1975) H. Ezekiel, Second India Studies: Overview (New Delhi, The MacMillan Co, 1978). (2) Another set of futures-related database studies partly inspired by the Ford Foundation came from the Operations Research Croup (ORC), Baroda. These studies constitute extrapolated projections; some studies are woven around the Indian demographic and housing sector database. Also see: A. Lahiri, Minerals and Metals: lndia (Baroda, ORC, 1975) Operations Perspective, Heinemann,
2000 AD in
Research Group, India in Vol 1 (New Delhi, Arnold1977)
D. N. Basu, Operations Research Group, Consumption Pattern and Life Style in India in Perspective, Vol 2 (New Delhi, Arnold-Heinemann, 1977). (3) The Department of Science and Technology (DST) was created in 1970. ‘Futurology’ was one of the items entrusted to it by the Government of India. In 1973, a National Committee on Science and Technology Futurology Panel was set up with Dr Satish C. Seth as its
FUTURES
April
1993
ANNOTATED
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Most futures bibliographies tend to overemphasize US sources, since the USA has tended to dominate the field for some time. The largest futures organization (the are more futures institutes, World Future Society) is based there. There researchers, scholars, consultants, SF writers and so on working in the USA than in most other countries combined. Those wishing to access the resulting literature will find the monthly Future Survey or the Future Survey Annual invaluable. However, a great deal of good work is produced in other places. Hence, for this special issue, it was decided to look further afield. The following references have been written by Kjell Dahle, Satish Seth, Tony Stevenson, Wendy Schultz and Graham May from Norway, India, Australia, Hawaii and the UK, respectively. The result is certainly not comprehensive, but it provides a clear indication that the field of futures study and research is alive and well in many places around the world. In time, and perhaps with the help of UNESCO, there will be a more universal guide to futures literature from this wider, global arena. (Rick Slaughter)
European futures
Kjell
texts
Dahle
Paul Ekins (editor), Wealth Beyond Measure. An Atlas of New Economics (London, Caia, 1992). This highly illustrated guide presents in layperson’s terms the principal features of ‘new economics’, also called ‘green economics’. Contrary to the visions of mainstream economists and politicians, the new economics movement puts forward that ‘recession recovery’ must accord with the imperatives of sustainable development. Participatory democracy and economic justice are other important objectives within new economics, Ekins is a cofounder of the New Economics Foundation and of The Other Economic Summit (TOES). He is also Research Director of the
Kjell Dahle, IS Chief Editor of the press agency Senterpressch in Oslo. He can be contacted at Akersbakken 19, N-0172 Oslo, Norway.
FUTURES April 1993
Right Livelihood Nobel Prize’).
Ward
(the
‘Alternative
Christopher Freeman and Marie Jahoda (editors), World Futures. The Great Debate (London, Martin Robertson, 1978) Three aims guided this interdisciplinary study. First, to contribute to forecasting methodology, through combining quantitative and qualitative approaches. Second, to examine whether a future that the authors could find desirable had any chance of realization within the next 50 years or so (it had). Third, to offer some ideas for actions and choices that could affect the fate of the next couple of generations. The Limits to Growth and other global futures studies of the 1970s are critically examined. 12 possible scenarios are outlined by combining three ‘worldviews’ neoclassic-conservative, Keynesianreformist, and Marxist-radical) with different profiles on equality and economic growth. The study was done at the
362
Annotated
bibliography
Science Policy Research Unit, University Sussex.
of
Johan Caltung, The True Worlds. A Transnational Perspective (New York, The Free Press, 1980) The author seeks to provide intellectual tools for coming to grips with problems which prevent us from realizing our goals. Four major crises of humanity are analysed: war, poverty, social injustice and environmental decay. The analysis of the contemporary world system is used as a base for sketching an alternative-a preferred future world order that should be both viable and attainable. This vision is of a diverse, but equitable world society where self-reliant units trade without exploitation. Strategies of change are discussed. Alternative social indicators are operationalized in an appendix. Caltung is a Norwegian professor of social sciences and one of the first presidents of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF). The book was a contribution to the World Order Models Project. Michel Codet, Futures Studies: A Tool-Box for Problem Solving (Paris, Futuribles/ CERPA, 1991) This is a tool-box for ‘applied’ futurists, who want to be both credible and useful to decision makers. The document contains an inventory of available methods for scenario production, including structural analysis morphological (forecasting), analysis, the Delphi method and relevance trees. A scenario is defined as a description of a future situation and the course of events which allows one to move forward from the original situation to the future situation. Scenarios should be relevant, coherent and likely. Codet is a professor at the CNAM. The publication of this work is a part of the ‘Future-oriented studies’ programme (FUTURESCO) of UNESCO. Bertrand de Jouvenel, The Art of Conjecture (New York, Basic Books, 1967; French original: L’art de la conjecture 1964) The author mistrusted pretentious terms such as ‘forecast’, ‘foresight’, ‘prediction’ and ‘futurology’, especially since prognosis makers are often credited with aspirations they do not (or should not!) have. To have futures studies taken seriously, he preferred the unpretentious term ‘conjecture’, which emphasizes the uncertainty of
the field. The intellectual formulation of probable futures is regarded as a piece of art, in the widest possible sense. Through linking historical examples to current problems, the book shows the complexity and unpredictability of society when it comes to making models of the future. Baron de Jouvenel was educated in law, biology and economics, and worked as a journalist and author. He founded the French organization Futuribles, and was the first president of the WFSF. Robert Jungk and Johan Caltung (editors), Mankind 2000 (Oslo, Universitetsforlaget, 1969) The book presents contributions to, and sums up the first world conference on futures studies, held in Oslo in 1967. It was arranged by the institutions of the two editors, lnstitut fur Zukunftsfragen in Vienna and the Peace Research Institute of Oslo. The title of the book is the same as that of the network attempting to coordinate international futures studies before the World Futures Studies Federation was established in 1973. The editors emphasize the participatory aspect of futures studies, which should not be allowed to become elitist. Robert Jungk and Norbert Mullert, Futures Workshops. How to Create Desirable futures (London, Institute for Social Inventions, 1989; German original: Zukunftswerkstitten, 1981) The book presents futures workshops as a method by which ordinary people can be involved in creating possible futures. Criticism, fantasy and realization are important elements in a process where concrete utopias and social inventions are drawn up. Examples show how participants change during the process, and what kinds of ideas and practical results that are achieved. Robert Jungk, born in Berlin in 1913, is the grand old man of European futures studies. He founded the International Futures Library in Salzburg, and was the ‘green’ candidate in the presidential elections of Austria in 1992. Rolf Kreibich, Weert Canzler and Klaus Burmeister, Zukunftsforschung and Politik (Futures research and Politics), (Weinheim, Germany, Beltz, 1991) This study analyses the development of German futures research, leading up to a
FUTURES April 1993
Annotated bibliography
presentation of the state of the art. After a decade with low activity, the situation now looks more promising. The new generation of German futurists has moved the focus from quantitative-oriented prognostics to more normative studies of desirable futures. Comparative analyses of futures studies in France, Sweden and Switzerland are included in the book, which is a result of a project financed by the regional authorities of NorthrheinWestfalia. I. Niels, K. Meyer, Helveg Petersen and Villy Sorensen, Revolt from the Center (London, Marion Boyar, 1982; Danish original: Oprgr fra midten, 1978) The book analyses weaknesses of our current social system, describes the authors’ utopia of a humane society in balance, and discusses ways and means of achieving the goal. Their future society is based democratic responsibility, ~e”rso~~r&edom, ecological balance and solidarity with other groups. The introduction of a ‘citizen’s wage’ is seen as an important reform, eliminating the necessity of paid work to cover minimum costs of living. Those who want a higher material standard have the right to a certain amount of paid work. The book, whose authors include a professor, a liberal politician and an essayist, was a success in Scandinavia. It triggered a broad public debate, and sold more than 100 000 copies only in Denmark. Jim Northcott (editor), Britain in 2070 (London, Policy Studies Institute, 1991) This is a report on how the UK may develop in the next two decades. The authors’ main forecasts are on a ‘most probable’ basis. Three different scenarios are, however, added, identifying potential areas of choice. The first is a market-oriented scenario, the second presents a left-wing, interventionist alternative, and the third illustrates an environmental-oriented approach. The report was produced by a multidisciplinary group at PSI in cooperation with Cambridge Econometrics. Fred Polak, The image of the Future (Amsterdam, Elsevier, 1973; Dutch original: De toekomst is verleden tijd, 1968) The first part (‘The Promised Land’) considers utopias and dystopias from the history of Western civilization. The author
FUTURES April 1993
363
looks at historical leaps which have taken place in the synthesis of contemporary reality and visions of the future. In the second part (‘Iconoclasm of the Images of the Future’), he describes what he sees as a unique lack of convincing images in our own times. The author’s hope for our cultural survival lies in a new development of both utopias and dystopias. Polak was a professor, dealing with law, economy, philosophy and sociology. He was president of ‘Mankind 2000’, and a central figure in Dutch culture, business and politics.
James Robertson, The Sane Alternative. A Choice of Futures (Oxford, 1983, revised edition) The period up to about the year 2010 is seen as a critical period in the history of humankind. Five very different futures, all assumed to be realistic, are presented. The scenarios are ‘business as usual’, ‘disaster’, ‘authoritarian control’ (right- or left-wing) ‘hyper-expansionist (HEY (even bigger toys and more important jobs for the boys), and ‘the sane, humane, ecological (SHE) -a decentralized alternative where the limits to growth are social and psychological, not technical and economic. Most of the book deals with what the fifth, preferred option is like and how it can be created. Robertson, a central figure within the new economics movement, was an adviser to prime minister Macmillan, and has worked later with management consulting and systems analysis.
Ove Sviden and Britt Aniansson (editors), Surprising Futures. Notes from an International Workshop on Long-term World Development (Stockholm, FRN, 1987) During a workshop, ‘Surprises and a sustainable development for the biosphere’, about 20 leading researchers from different countries and disciplines (including Elise Boulding, William C. Clarke and Michel Cadet) drew up five global and regional scenarios up to the year 2075. Four of the scenarios were deliberately given a ‘surprising’ content, although they need not be more unlikely than what is normally called ‘surprise-free’ scenarios (based on ‘conventional wisdom’). The workshop was jointly run by a Swedish research council and the International
364
Annotated bibliography
Institute of Applied (IIASA) in Austria.
Systems
Analysis
To Choose a Future (Stockholm, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 1974; Swedish original: Att vilja framtid, SOU, 1972) The relationship between futures studies and public decision making and planning is a central issue in this report. Alva Myrdal, then a member of the Cabinet, was chairman of a commission set up to give
Indian futures
Satish
advice on the development of futures studies in Sweden. According to its report, futures studies should rather make it possible for people to shape the future than passively allowing it to be shaped for us. Several possible futures therefore need to be presented, to strengthen democratic control over societal development. The report resulted in the establishment of a new governmental organ, the Secretariat for futures studies, the following year.
texts
C. Seth
This bibliographical note is divided into five sections establishing the progression of futures work and thinking in India since 1970. Each section catalogues only an illustrative and not an exhaustive listing. It particularly omits all references to articles pertaining to the future that have appeared in the Indian newspapers and journals, specifically those that appeared in the Indian Review of Management and Future. (I) The Second India series sponsored and funded by the Ford Foundation of India constitutes the earlier futures-related studies of the 1970s. Many individual scholars were entrusted the task of developing descriptive scenarios in areas like industry, housing, energy and so on, on the premise, that by 2000 AD India’s population, would double. Similarly, the Ford Foundation also sponsored studies for different states to catalogue likely sectoral needs and developments up to the year 2000 AD. Only a few Second India national-level studies are available as printed books. Illustratively, see: M. C. Chaturvedi, Second India Studies: Water (New Delhi, The MacMillan Co, 1976) Satlsh C. Seth, EB-166, Maya Enclave, G-8 Area, New Delhi-110 064, India (Tel: 540-2903).
H. Ezekiel, Second India Studies: Industry (New Delhi, The MacMillan Co, 1975) H. Ezekiel, Second India Studies: Overview (New Delhi, The MacMillan Co, 1978). (2) Another set of futures-related database studies partly inspired by the Ford Foundation came from the Operations Research Croup (ORC), Baroda. These studies constitute extrapolated projections; some studies are woven around the Indian demographic and housing sector database. Also see: A. Lahiri, Minerals and Metals: lndia (Baroda, ORC, 1975) Operations Perspective, Heinemann,
2000 AD in
Research Group, India in Vol 1 (New Delhi, Arnold1977)
D. N. Basu, Operations Research Group, Consumption Pattern and Life Style in India in Perspective, Vol 2 (New Delhi, Arnold-Heinemann, 1977). (3) The Department of Science and Technology (DST) was created in 1970. ‘Futurology’ was one of the items entrusted to it by the Government of India. In 1973, a National Committee on Science and Technology Futurology Panel was set up with Dr Satish C. Seth as its
FUTURES
April
1993