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Evaluating technological collaborative opportunities: a cognitive modelling perspective
CURRENT
INDIVIDUAL PLANNING TOPICS-TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE R.A. BETTIS and M.A. HITT The new competitive landscape Strategic ManagementJournal 16, 7-14 (Summer 1995) Technology is rapidly altering the nature of competition and strategy in the late twentieth century. The new competitive landscape presents new issues, n e w concepts, new problems and new challenges. An examination is made of the broad nature of the technological changes that are occurring. The purpose is to stimulate further research into these issues in strategic management.
B.B. TYLER and H.K. STEENSMA Evaluating technological collaborative opportunities: a cognitive modelling perspective Strategic Management Journal 16, 43-70 (Summer 1995) Little is known about h o w executives actually weigh and integrate the available information during the evaluation process. Policy capturing is used to examine managerial and economic information top executives consider when evaluating scenarios representative of cooperative technology development opportunities. The results suggest a preliminary integrated behavioural model of the factors managers use in assessments. Implications for research and practice are set forth.
AWARENESS
understanding whether or not the firm has potential and can be successful comes more easily.
INDIVIDUAL PLANNING TOPICS--MODELS J.D. BYERS and D.A. PEEL Forecasting industrial production using nonlinear methods Journal of Forecasting 14 (4), 325-336 (July 1995) Numerous theoretical models suggest that business cycles involve non-linear processes. An examination is made whether two parametric, non-linear time-series m o d e l s - - t h e bilinear and threshold m o d e l s - - c a n exploit apparent non-linearity in industrial production to provide forecasts superior to those derived from the standard autoregressive models. K. BR,~NNAS Prediction and control for a time-series count data model International Journal of Forecasting 11 (2), 263270 (June 1995) Time series of count data are becoming more widely available. In a recently suggested class of models, the serial correlation between counts can conveniently be accounted for. An easily calculated linear predictor is then introduced and control solutions for average count and for probabilities of specified events are given. The model is illustrated using a road accident frequency model for a Swedish county.
INDIVIDUAL PLANNING TOPICS--FORECASTING K.D. PATTERSON
F.F. SUAREZand J.M. UTTERBACK Dominant Designs and the survival of firms Strategic Management Journal 16 (6), 415-430 (September 1995) The economic, population ecology and strategic perspectives on firm survival are complemented by viewing the same phenomenon from the viewpoint of technology evolution. The competitive environment of an industry, and therefore the survival of firms in it, is substantially influenced by the changes in the technology on which it is based. The hypothesis is tested and the results demonstrate that, if technology is included as a dynamic and strategic variable, then ~
Pergamon 0024-6301(95)00059-3
A state space approach to forecasting the final vintage of revised data with an application to the index of industrial production Journal of Forecasting 14 (4), 337-350 (July 1995) The index of industrial production (IIP) as the indicator of the state of the UK's industrial base is subject to revision as more information becomes available. This raises the problem of forecasting the final vintage of data on IIP. A state space model is suggested to
Long Range Planning, Vol. 28, No. 6, pp. 122 to 132, 1995 Copyright © 1995 Elsevier Science Ltd Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved 0024-6301/95 $9.50+.00
INDIVIDUAL PLANNING TOPICS-TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE R.A. BETTIS and M.A. HITT The new competitive landscape Strategic ManagementJournal 16, 7-14 (Summer 1995) Technology is rapidly altering the nature of competition and strategy in the late twentieth century. The new competitive landscape presents new issues, n e w concepts, new problems and new challenges. An examination is made of the broad nature of the technological changes that are occurring. The purpose is to stimulate further research into these issues in strategic management.
B.B. TYLER and H.K. STEENSMA Evaluating technological collaborative opportunities: a cognitive modelling perspective Strategic Management Journal 16, 43-70 (Summer 1995) Little is known about h o w executives actually weigh and integrate the available information during the evaluation process. Policy capturing is used to examine managerial and economic information top executives consider when evaluating scenarios representative of cooperative technology development opportunities. The results suggest a preliminary integrated behavioural model of the factors managers use in assessments. Implications for research and practice are set forth.
AWARENESS
understanding whether or not the firm has potential and can be successful comes more easily.
INDIVIDUAL PLANNING TOPICS--MODELS J.D. BYERS and D.A. PEEL Forecasting industrial production using nonlinear methods Journal of Forecasting 14 (4), 325-336 (July 1995) Numerous theoretical models suggest that business cycles involve non-linear processes. An examination is made whether two parametric, non-linear time-series m o d e l s - - t h e bilinear and threshold m o d e l s - - c a n exploit apparent non-linearity in industrial production to provide forecasts superior to those derived from the standard autoregressive models. K. BR,~NNAS Prediction and control for a time-series count data model International Journal of Forecasting 11 (2), 263270 (June 1995) Time series of count data are becoming more widely available. In a recently suggested class of models, the serial correlation between counts can conveniently be accounted for. An easily calculated linear predictor is then introduced and control solutions for average count and for probabilities of specified events are given. The model is illustrated using a road accident frequency model for a Swedish county.
INDIVIDUAL PLANNING TOPICS--FORECASTING K.D. PATTERSON
F.F. SUAREZand J.M. UTTERBACK Dominant Designs and the survival of firms Strategic Management Journal 16 (6), 415-430 (September 1995) The economic, population ecology and strategic perspectives on firm survival are complemented by viewing the same phenomenon from the viewpoint of technology evolution. The competitive environment of an industry, and therefore the survival of firms in it, is substantially influenced by the changes in the technology on which it is based. The hypothesis is tested and the results demonstrate that, if technology is included as a dynamic and strategic variable, then ~
Pergamon 0024-6301(95)00059-3
A state space approach to forecasting the final vintage of revised data with an application to the index of industrial production Journal of Forecasting 14 (4), 337-350 (July 1995) The index of industrial production (IIP) as the indicator of the state of the UK's industrial base is subject to revision as more information becomes available. This raises the problem of forecasting the final vintage of data on IIP. A state space model is suggested to
Long Range Planning, Vol. 28, No. 6, pp. 122 to 132, 1995 Copyright © 1995 Elsevier Science Ltd Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved 0024-6301/95 $9.50+.00