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Evidence for a risk-based strategy to detect viral spillover and spread
International Journal of Infectious Diseases 53S (2016) 4–163
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
International Journal of Infectious Diseases journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijid
Abstracts on IMED/ Biennial Meeting Abstracts
01.001
01.002
AIDS, Avian flu, SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika . . .what next?
Evidence for a risk-based strategy to detect viral spillover and spread
A. Osterhaus
C. Kreuder Johnson
Artemis One Health Foundation, Hanover/DE
University of California - Davis, Wildlife Health Center, Davis, CA/US
Complex relationships between humans and animals have created an interface that allowed cross-species transmission, emergence and eventual evolution of a plethora of human pathogens. Until 1900, infectious diseases were the major cause of mortality of humankind, causing an estimated fifty percent of all deaths. In the western world, this decreased to only a few percent, due to the implementation of public health measures and the introduction of vaccines and antimicrobial compounds. This prompted policymakers and scientists to speculate that soon human infectious diseases would be brought under control. Paradoxically, soon thereafter the world was confronted with an ever-increasing number of (re-)emerging infectious diseases, like AIDS, Avian flu, SARS, MERS, Ebola, and Zika spilling over from animal reservoirs. A complex mix of predisposing factors in our globalizing world, linked to major changes in our societal environment and global ecology, collectively created opportunities for viruses and other pathogens to infect and adapt to new animal and/or human hosts. This paved the way for the unprecedented spread of infections in humans and animals with dramatic consequences for public and animal health, animal welfare, food supply, economies, and biodiversity. It is important to realize that due to the complex and largely interactive nature of the predisposing factors, it is virtually impossible to predict what the next pathogen threat will be, from where it will come and when it will strike. However better understanding of the underlying processes may eventually lead to predictions that would improve our preparedness for outbreaks in humans and animals. Investment in a better understanding the human-animal interface will therefore offer a future head start in the neverending battle against infectious diseases of humans. Importantly, the increased emergence of viral infections is largely paralleled by medical, veterinary, technological, and scientific progress, continuously spurred by our never-ending combat against pathogens. Especially the establishment of vaccine development platforms, widely applicable to both known and unknown viruses will further contribute to an R&D based response preparedness. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2016.11.013 1201-9712/
Emerging zoonotic viruses present persistent threats to global health, and a collaborative transboundary approach is needed for early detection of zoonotic viruses that have high potential to spread among humans. USAID’s Emerging Pandemic Threats PREDICT project is one of many projects globally using a risk-based strategy to investigate emerging diseases threats. Here we examine common animal hosts and convergent mechanisms involved in spillover of zoonotic viruses in the past in order to identify highrisk interfaces for surveillance activities and interventions aimed at prevention. We also analyze previous outbreak reports to test several assumptions regarding common traits among zoonotic viruses that have amplified spillover by human-to-human transmission. We find that viruses transmitted to humans during circumstances that facilitated mixing of diverse animal species had significantly higher host plasticity (in that they have been reported in a taxonomically diverse host range). Viruses with higher host plasticity were more likely to amplify viral spillover by secondary human-tohuman transmission and have broader geographic spread. We also provide evidence for a strong linear relationship between species abundance and viral spillover, with the more common species, especially those increasing in abundance, having transmitted more viruses to humans. PREDICT activities have thus focused on highrisk interfaces that facilitate mixing of animal species in areas with high biodiversity, dense human populations, and land use change that allows frequent contact between people and wildlife, particularly highly adaptable species increasing in abundance. Our data to date highlight viral traits and epidemiologic circumstances likely to facilitate future disease emergence, and our findings add to ongoing efforts to guide global disease surveillance. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2016.11.014
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
International Journal of Infectious Diseases journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijid
Abstracts on IMED/ Biennial Meeting Abstracts
01.001
01.002
AIDS, Avian flu, SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika . . .what next?
Evidence for a risk-based strategy to detect viral spillover and spread
A. Osterhaus
C. Kreuder Johnson
Artemis One Health Foundation, Hanover/DE
University of California - Davis, Wildlife Health Center, Davis, CA/US
Complex relationships between humans and animals have created an interface that allowed cross-species transmission, emergence and eventual evolution of a plethora of human pathogens. Until 1900, infectious diseases were the major cause of mortality of humankind, causing an estimated fifty percent of all deaths. In the western world, this decreased to only a few percent, due to the implementation of public health measures and the introduction of vaccines and antimicrobial compounds. This prompted policymakers and scientists to speculate that soon human infectious diseases would be brought under control. Paradoxically, soon thereafter the world was confronted with an ever-increasing number of (re-)emerging infectious diseases, like AIDS, Avian flu, SARS, MERS, Ebola, and Zika spilling over from animal reservoirs. A complex mix of predisposing factors in our globalizing world, linked to major changes in our societal environment and global ecology, collectively created opportunities for viruses and other pathogens to infect and adapt to new animal and/or human hosts. This paved the way for the unprecedented spread of infections in humans and animals with dramatic consequences for public and animal health, animal welfare, food supply, economies, and biodiversity. It is important to realize that due to the complex and largely interactive nature of the predisposing factors, it is virtually impossible to predict what the next pathogen threat will be, from where it will come and when it will strike. However better understanding of the underlying processes may eventually lead to predictions that would improve our preparedness for outbreaks in humans and animals. Investment in a better understanding the human-animal interface will therefore offer a future head start in the neverending battle against infectious diseases of humans. Importantly, the increased emergence of viral infections is largely paralleled by medical, veterinary, technological, and scientific progress, continuously spurred by our never-ending combat against pathogens. Especially the establishment of vaccine development platforms, widely applicable to both known and unknown viruses will further contribute to an R&D based response preparedness. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2016.11.013 1201-9712/
Emerging zoonotic viruses present persistent threats to global health, and a collaborative transboundary approach is needed for early detection of zoonotic viruses that have high potential to spread among humans. USAID’s Emerging Pandemic Threats PREDICT project is one of many projects globally using a risk-based strategy to investigate emerging diseases threats. Here we examine common animal hosts and convergent mechanisms involved in spillover of zoonotic viruses in the past in order to identify highrisk interfaces for surveillance activities and interventions aimed at prevention. We also analyze previous outbreak reports to test several assumptions regarding common traits among zoonotic viruses that have amplified spillover by human-to-human transmission. We find that viruses transmitted to humans during circumstances that facilitated mixing of diverse animal species had significantly higher host plasticity (in that they have been reported in a taxonomically diverse host range). Viruses with higher host plasticity were more likely to amplify viral spillover by secondary human-tohuman transmission and have broader geographic spread. We also provide evidence for a strong linear relationship between species abundance and viral spillover, with the more common species, especially those increasing in abundance, having transmitted more viruses to humans. PREDICT activities have thus focused on highrisk interfaces that facilitate mixing of animal species in areas with high biodiversity, dense human populations, and land use change that allows frequent contact between people and wildlife, particularly highly adaptable species increasing in abundance. Our data to date highlight viral traits and epidemiologic circumstances likely to facilitate future disease emergence, and our findings add to ongoing efforts to guide global disease surveillance. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2016.11.014