Exploring the factors affecting regional land development patterns at different developmental stages: Evidence from 289 Chinese cities

Cities xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Cities journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/cities

Exploring the factors affecting regional land development patterns at different developmental stages: Evidence from 289 Chinese cities ⁎

Jin Wanfua, Zhou Chunshana, , Liu Taob, Zhang Guojunc,

⁎

a

School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China c School of Public Administration, Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, Guangzhou 510320, China b

A R T I C LE I N FO

A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Land development Developmental stages Land development structure Factors 289 cities China

Numerous studies have explored the drivers and consequences of the expansion of urban areas. However, limited research has been conducted on the land development of cities based on the different developmental stages. Therefore, using land transaction records obtained by Python in the land market of China during the 2011–2015 period, this study explores the factors affecting the land development process in 289 cities at five different stages of economic development. The development stages are identified by combing per capita GDP and the industrial structure in the 289 cities in 2015. The stages of economic development are the primary production stage (PPS), primary industrialization stage (PIS), middle industrialization stage (MIS), later industrialization stage (LIS), and developed stage (DS). The results reveal that with the advance of regional development stage, the scale of land development increases. We also find that, in general, the proportions of residential and public managementservice land development projects increases, whereas the proportion of transportation land development projects decreases. The proportions of industrial-mining-warehouse land development projects first increases and then decreases, and there is no significant change in the proportion of land used for commercial land development projects. Regression analyses of panel data indicate that various factors have different effects on land development at five developmental stages, although the positive effects of domestic fixed asset investment on land development are always strongest. The results can contribute to our understanding of land development patterns in different stages of development and local governments in China, and thus to the formulation of reasonable annual land development plans.

1. Introduction Society continues to evolve, and the constantly changing industrial structure, capital accumulation and urbanization speed (Chenery, Robinson, & Syrquin, 1986; Northam, 1979; Rostow, 1960) have forced the redistribution and combination of land and other resources among industries (Bičı́k, Jeleček, & Štěpánek, 2001; Plieninger et al., 2016; Zhang, Yue, Liu, Fan, & Wei, 2018). The effort to use land efficiently has led to the transformation of land types (Alonso, 1964; Anas, 1996; Chakir & Gallo, 2013; Plantinga & Irwin, 2006). Theoretically, the proportion of urban land is smallest in the agriculture-oriented economic development stage. In the middle period of industrialization, agricultural land is transformed into secondary and tertiary industrial land on a large scale, and residential, manufacturing and infrastructure land increase significantly. In the third stage of industrialization, agricultural and secondary industrial land is likely to be converted into

⁎

tertiary industrial land. Many studies use remote sensing data and official land use change data to explore regional land development patterns and their influencing factors, and to compare the characteristics and influencing factors of construction land expansion in different cities and regions. For example, construction land expansion in small cities is usually small, while that in large cities is typically large (Schneider & Woodcock, 2008). However, with the expansion of urban land, the speed of land development may decrease. Foreign direct investment has played a significant role in land development in China's coastal areas (Lin, 2007; Seto & Kaufmann, 2003) and in cities with higher administrative levels (Jiang, Deng, & Seto, 2012; Li, Wei, Liao, & Huang, 2015). With the lack of employment opportunities and deficient public services due to the relatively low development of non-agricultural industries, demand for residential land in Israel for Arab settlements with relatively small population is significantly lower than that for Jewish settlements (Kheir

Corresponding authors. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (Z. Chunshan), [email protected] (L. Tao), [email protected] (Z. Guojun).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2018.11.019 Received 9 January 2018; Received in revised form 21 September 2018; Accepted 24 November 2018 0264-2751/ © 2018 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Please cite this article as: Wanfu, J., Cities, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2018.11.019

Cities xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

J. Wanfu et al.

Fig. 1. Theoretical framework of development stage evolution and land development.

economic development are discussed in Section 4. In Section 5, the factors that affect land development in the different developmental stages are identified using regression analyses. We present our major findings and discuss their policy implications in Section 6.

& Portnov, 2016). The division of regional types in these studies is mainly based on the scale of cities (Andrade-Núñez & Aide, 2018; Gao, Huang, He, Sun, & Zhang, 2016; Schneider & Woodcock, 2008), affluence (Boustan, 2013; Jiron, 2003; Kheir & Portnov, 2016), administrative level (Gao, Wei, Chen, & Komali, 2015; Huang, Wei, He, & Li, 2015; Li et al., 2015), geographical location (Ding & Lichtenberg, 2011; Hamidi & Ewing, 2014; Kuang, Liu, Dong, Chi, & Zhang, 2016; Osman, Divigalpitiya, & Arima, 2016; Paudel, Zhang, Li, & Liu, 2018; Xu & Min, 2013) and urban function (Shu, Li, Qu, Yong, & Li, 2014) and does not clearly reveal the characteristics of land development and its influencing factors at different stages of development. In addition, remote sensing data and land use change data can reflect the conversion of nonconstruction land to construction land but not urban land redevelopment. These studies thus may not accurately reflect the relationship between the economic development stage and changes in land development. Since the reform and opening up, China has experienced rapid economic growth and urbanization (Huang et al., 2015). Against this background, the industrial structure and land use structure of Chinese cities have undergone extensive changes. A great deal of agricultural land around central urban areas, especially cultivated land, has been converted into residential, commercial, industrial and other types of urban land (Lin, 2007; Lin & Ho, 2005; Song, 2014; Zhao, 2017). In recent years, land resources have become increasingly scarce as the industrial structures of China's large cities have been transformed and upgraded. Cities with high levels of economic development, such as Beijing, Guangzhou and Foshan, have encouraged the redevelopment of old urban areas, old factories and old villages into residential, commercial or advanced manufacturing land (Guo, Xiao, & Yuan, 2016; Liu & Wong, 2018; Tian & Yao, 2018). China is currently in the middle stage of industrialization (Qi, Yang, & Jin, 2013), and the economic development of its cities varies significantly (Zhang & Bao, 2015). Therefore, exploring the relationship between the transformation of cities' economic development stages and land development change in China will provide insight into the land development patterns in different stages of economic development. We propose a theoretical framework to explore land development in different stages of economic development based on the theory of regional economic growth stages. Using the 2015 per-capita GDP and industrial structure of 289 cities in China, this paper identifies each city's development stage and uses the land supply data (including construction land expansion and urban land redevelopment) from 2011 to 2015 to identify the land development characteristics and their influencing factors in different development stages. The findings enrich the theory of regional economic growth stages and are used to provide suggestions on land supply plans for cities in different stages of development. In Section 2, we present the theoretical framework. The research methods, variables and data sources used in this study are described in Section 3. The characteristics of land development at different stages of

2. Theoretical framework Increases in industrialization and urbanization result in changes to the industrial structure and promote the growth of population and social wealth (Chenery et al., 1986; Northam, 1979; Rostow, 1960), profoundly affecting regional land development and the urban spatial structure. At different stages of economic development, the development scales of three types industries (including primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry) and the degree of intensive land use are different; these factors significantly affect the regional land development structure and the demand for construction land (Lin, 2004; Liu & Long, 2016). Population growth requires society to provide working and living space, which results in the active promotion of land development (Chen, Gao, & Chen, 2016; Gao, Wei, Chen, & Chen, 2014; Luo et al., 2018; Zhao, 2010). Wealth accumulation, a result of economic development, is an important financial guarantee for land development (Hsing, 2006; Li et al., 2015; Ping, 2011; Xu, Yeh, & Wu, 2009). Foreign direct investment and local fixed assets investment are particularly important driving forces for China's urban economic growth and construction land expansion (Deng, Huang, Rozelle, & Uchida, 2006; Ding & Lichtenberg, 2011). Changes in the industrial structure, capital accumulation and urbanization are interrelated in the industrialization process. To fully understand the effects of non-agricultural industry development, population growth and wealth accumulation on land development in different stages of development, we propose a theoretical framework (Fig. 1). 2.1. Non-agricultural industrial development and land development The demand for land generated by the development of non-agricultural industries has profound effects on urban expansion and the land use structure. In the rapid industrialization stage, the demand for land for the manufacturing industry may be greater. Because of the low rental capacity of the manufacturing industry and the low degree of intensive land use, manufacturing industry development usually encroaches extensively on suburban farmland (Du, Thill, Peiser, & Feng, 2014; Lin, 2004). Some rapidly developing countries even lease industrial land at low prices to attract investors; these include China (Ding, Niu, & Lichtenberg, 2014; He, Huang, & Wang, 2014; Huang & Du, 2017) and Vietnam (Labbé, 2016; Labbé & Musil, 2014). With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the tertiary industry will become the economy's leading industry, and will be highly concentrated in the central urban area. The development of manufacturing industry will be largely transferred to the suburbs; this process is known as “industrial suburbanization” (Zhang et al., 2018). 2

Cities xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

J. Wanfu et al.

employment opportunities and higher wages for residents, thus attracting rural populations to urban areas and promoting urban land expansion (Bloom, Canning, & Fink, 2008; Seto, Fragkias, Guneralp, & Reilly, 2011). Studies have shown that large populations flowing into cities will promote the development of formal and informal residential communities (Wei, 2005; Zhao, 2017; Zhao & Zhang, 2016). In addition, population growth requires local governments to provide public services such as education and health care, which will lead to construction land expansion. For example, population growth has led to increased residential land in Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia, and has increased daily travel demand, which led to the expansion of transportation land (Aljoufie, Zuidgeest, Brussel, & Maarseveen, 2013). After World War II, the global economy entered a relatively stable period of development. With the popularity of automobiles and the construction of highways, economic sectors and people in central urban areas of the United States spread rapidly to near and outer suburbs, which led to the large-scale conversion of rural land near central urban areas into residential, commercial and industrial land (Barrens, Morgan, Roberge, & Lowe, 2001). In China, urbanization has become a driver of urban land expansion (Bai, Shi, & Liu, 2014; Fay & Opal, 2000; Xie et al., 2017; Zhou & Ma, 2003). In China, population growth has a greater positive effect on the expansion of construction land in cities with higher administrative levels than on prefecture-level cities (Li et al., 2015; Lin, 2007). Although the expansion of various economic sectors has led to the development of urban land, in essence, land development is caused by material and non-material needs arising from population growth. Based on the above theoretical framework, we assume that nonindustrial development, population growth and capital accumulation have different effects on land development at different stages of development. We also hypothesize that changes in land development are somewhat consistent throughout the development process.

In Western developed countries, the phenomenon of industrial suburbanization can be traced to the middle of the nineteenth century (Lewis, 2008), as manufacturing began to expand to the suburbs in the early days of industrialization (Walker, 2001). Industrial suburbanization will lead to increased employment opportunities in suburbs, and the relevant economic departments and population will then gather in suburbs, further promoting the development of suburban land. However, in Western society, excessive industrial suburbanization has also led to the depression of old urban areas (Martinez-Fernandez, Audirac, Fol, & Cunningham-Sabot, 2012; Robert, 2009; Tighe & Ganning, 2015). To economically revitalize central urban areas, a number of central, western and southern European cities have adopted redevelopment strategies (e.g. developing new residential areas and building landmarks) to enhance the residential and commercial attractiveness of the central urban area (Glock & Häussermann, 2004; Hospers, 2011). Since the 1990s, the manufacturing industries of a number of cities in China have shifted from central urban areas to the suburbs, and a great deal of agricultural land on the periphery of these central urban areas has been transformed into urban land (Feng, Zhou, & Wu, 2008; Gao, Liu, & Dunford, 2014; Tan, Li, Xie, & Lu, 2005; Zhang et al., 2018). Furthermore, industrial land used for manufacturing in central urban areas has been redeveloped into high-end residential, commercial or service land (Guo et al., 2016; Liu & Wong, 2018; Tian & Yao, 2018). 2.2. Capital accumulation and land development The expansion of social and economic sectors is supported by capital, and improved social productivity leads to greater social wealth (Chenery et al., 1986; Rostow, 1960). In their pursuit of greater profits, enterprises often use their accumulated wealth to expand their production processes, such as building warehouses and factories, inevitably promoting urban expansion (Harvey, 1985; Lefebvre, 1991; Peck, 2011). In addition, a considerable amount of fixed asset investment flows into the construction of public infrastructure (such as roads, railways and airports), which also affects the location of households, enterprises and investment and promotes the rapid expansion of construction land along lines of infrastructure (Glassman, 2006; Phelps, 2010; Tao, Su, Liu, & Cao, 2010). Land leasing has become an important source of revenue for local governments in China (Qian, 2008), and local governments seek to generate land revenue from real estate development and subsidize manufacturing expansion and financial infrastructure construction in industrial zones (Liu, Fan, Yue, & Song, 2018). As globalization has increased, foreign direct investment has had a significant impact on China's urban development (Wei, 2012). Since the reform and opening up, foreign direct investment has supported China's industrialization, especially in coastal areas, and foreign direct investment is positively related to the development of urban land in China (Li et al., 2015; Lin, 2007). For example, foreign direct investment in China rose by 10% between 1989 and 2005, and the amount of cultivated land converted into urban land increased by 2.38% over that period (Jiang et al., 2012). To attract foreign direct investment, China's local governments often establish development zones in urban fringe areas (Wei, 2005). Thus, the positive impact of foreign direct investment on the expansion of industrial land may be significant. In the era of globalization, cities have made great efforts to improve infrastructure and to build central business districts and research facilities to attract foreign direct investment and other global resources (Huang et al., 2015; Wei, 2015). The implementation of these projects and plans requires a large amount of cultivated land and promotes the redevelopment of urban land.

3. Methodology and data sources 3.1. Model This study uses panel model to identify the factors that influence land development in cities at different stages of economic development in China during 2011–2015. Although panel model has multiple advantages (Arellano, 2003), the existence of non-stationary data maybe lead to “spurious regression.” Consequently, it is necessary to perform a unit root test on the data before the regression. For macro panel data, when the time series is long (20–60 years), a non-stationary test of variables needs to be considered (Bai, 2010). Here, the study period is short, so a unit root test is not necessary. Land development is also affected by regional conditions (Saiz, 2010; Seto et al., 2011; Zhou, Zhao, & Zhou, 2017); therefore, a regional control variable is included in the model. The basic form of the panel data model is as follows:

yit = α i + β1i x1it + β2i x2it + ⋯⋯+βki xkit + βki xki + δit ,

(1)

where yit is the dependent variables of city i in year t, xit is the independent variables of city i in year t, β is the coefficient to be estimated, α is the constant term, and δ is the error. We systematically examine the factors that influence land development. Land development (LD) is widely recognized as the result of economic growth (Deng, Huang, Rozelle, & Uchida, 2010). This study focuses on land development in central urban areas and suburbs. Therefore, the growth rate of secondary industries (SIGR) and tertiary industries are introduced (TIGR) into the model (Table 1). Population growth (PGR) stimulates consumption and promotes the expansion of related industries (Aljoufie et al., 2013; Kheir & Portnov, 2016; Liu & Long, 2016; Ye & Wu, 2014). We assume that the expansion of nonagricultural industries and population growth both actively promote the land development in cities at different stages of economic development. In the process of globalization, foreign enterprises have

2.3. Urbanization and land development The development of non-agricultural industries can provide more 3

Cities xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

J. Wanfu et al.

Table 1 Statistical summary of variables. Variable Dependent Independent

Control

Definition LD SIGR TIGR PGR FDIP DFAI PD

Expected direction 2

Land development (hm ) Growth rate of secondary industries (%) Growth rate of tertiary industries (%) Population growth rate (%) Proportion of foreign direct investment in GDP (%) D-value between fixed assets investment and foreign direct investment (100 million yuan) Ratio of population size to administrative area in 2015 (persons/km2)

+ + + + + −

Min

Max

Mean

Std. dev

31.85 −5.67 −3.42 −2.36 0.00 49.16 6.64

19,498.64 38.30 23.54 5.79 13.16 12,562.86 5698.17

1790.79 14.01 10.62 0.48 1.81 1194.79 471.92

1602.24 5.28 2.96 0.63 1.72 1245.04 549.01

land supplies and to improve the transparency of land transactions, regulations issued by the Ministry of Land and Resources at the beginning of 2010 require local land and resources management bureaus to release detailed information about land plots on this website. Hence, that data on land supply are more reliable for the post-2010 period. The amount of land available for development and redevelopment in a single year may not reflect accurately the characteristics of land development in cities at different developmental stages. Therefore, we capture 963,241 transaction records from 2011 to 2015. The land supply in these years can reflect the effect of the national economic situation on land development during the 12th Five-Year Plan. However, some of these records are duplicates, and some land plots are land that cannot be developed such as reservoirs, lakes, and rivers. We use the electronic monitoring numbers (each number is unique) and land use categories to delete the duplicate records and the land plots that cannot be developed. The final dataset consists of 895,345 transaction records. There were changes in administrative boundaries and/ or the name of some cities in 2011–2015; in such cases, the transactions are reclassified under the city's name in 2015 based on the location of the land plot. After data processing, the sample consists of the land supply data for 289 prefecture level cities.1 Cities in Tibet do not release land supply information. In 2012, the Classification of Urban Land Use and Planning Standards of Development Land redefined land use types; the new types of land use are transportation land, industrial-mining land, warehouse land, residential land, public management-services land, commercial land, and land with an unclear function.

actively participated in China's economic development, especially in the coastal areas. There is a positive relationship between foreign direct investment and the expansion of urban areas (He et al., 2014; Li et al., 2015). We use the proportion of foreign direct investment in a city's GDP (FDIP) (Huang et al., 2015) as a measure of foreign direct investment and test its effect on land development at different stages of economic development. In addition to testing the effects of foreign direct investment, we examine whether domestic fixed asset investment (DFAI) accelerates land development (Li et al., 2015). Moreover, as land development may also be affected by geographical conditions, such as terrain and land scarcity (Saiz, 2010; Seto et al., 2011; Zhou et al., 2017), we introduce a control variable that does not change over time to represent the scarcity of land. Specifically, we use population density (PD) in 2015, and assume that the population density changes very little over the study period and that relationship between the scarcity of land and population density is relatively stable (Liu, Cao, Yan, & Wang, 2016). Furthermore, there might be a time lag between economic growth and the resulting land development. Following Jiang, Xin, Li, and Tan (2016), the one-year lagged values of all of the main independent variables except population density are used. To reduce the heteroscedasticity and ensure data stationarity, the logarithm of the non-proportional data are obtained. These data are mainly obtained from the statistical yearbooks of provinces/municipalities and the statistical bulletins of cities. 3.2. Data sources

4. Land development in cities at different stages of economic development

Studies of land development in China have used data from remote sensing images, reports of changes in annual land use, or inventories of land supply. The first two kinds of data can measure new developments, but do not consider redevelopment projects. Inventories of land supply include land available for new developments and for redevelopment, which indicate the conversion of agricultural land to urban development and urban renewal, respectively. The common drawback of such datasets is that they do not include land in unlisted transactions. Furthermore, land may be bought or designated for development years before it is completely developed. To accurately reflect the state of land development in a city, we use the land supply data drawn from the websites of land administration bureaus. The datasets on the websites are more detailed than those in the China Land and Resources Statistical Yearbooks; they include data on electronic supervision number, administrative region, location, area, land use type, land supply mode (including land leasing and land allocation), land source (newly zoned as land for development and existing land available for redevelopment), transaction price, date of contract signed, etc. In brief, compared with the remote sensing data and annual land use change data, the land transaction records used in this paper can more accurately reflect the development and redevelopment of urban land. Using the Python programming language, we obtain land supply data from http://www.landchina.com, the website of China's Ministry of Land and Resources. Although this website was launched in October 2003, in the early period, not all of the land supply information was released by some local land administration bureaus due to the imperfect information disclosure system. To prevent the illegal manipulation of

Although China entered the mid-industrialization stage in 2010, there are significant differences in regional economic development due to different local conditions (Qi et al., 2013). We could measure a city's economic development using per capita GDP, industrial structure, innovation, and/or the level of comprehensive development (Lian & Ren, 2009). The most commonly used measure is per capita GDP. In fact, economic development includes the size of economic expansion and changes in industrial structures, which not only alter the employment patterns but also the consumption and land use patterns (Cho & Moon, 1998; Wang, 2016). In addition to per capita GDP, the types of industrial structure can be used as indicators of regional economic development. We identify the development stages of 289 cities based on per capita GDP and industrial structure in 2015 (Table 2).2 The final dataset has 9 cities in the primary production stage (PPS), mainly in the northeast region; 36 cities in the primary industrialization stage (PIS), which are concentrated in the western region; 196 cities in the middle industrialization stage (MIS), which are widely distributed across the 1 The administrative scope of these cities includes municipal district cities (shixiaqu) and non-municipal district cities (feishixiaqu). 2 In theory, the developmental stages of each city may change during the study period. To ensure the comparability of the findings, we identify the development stages of each city based on per capita GDP and industrial structure in 2015.

4

Cities xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

J. Wanfu et al.

Table 2 Identification of economic development stages in 2015a. PPS

Industrialization stage PIS

Per capita GDP (1000 yuan) Industrial structure (%)b

MIS

DS LIS

2.9–8.2

8.3–16.4

16.5–32.8

32.9–61.5

61.6–147.5

P>S

P > 20 and P
10 ≤ P ≤ 20

P < 10 and S > T

P < 10 and S
a This standard is formulated based on Qi, Yang, and Jin (2013) and Wang (2016), who identify the stages of economic development stages using Chenery et al. (1986)c. b P, S and T, respectively, indicate the proportion of GDP provided by primary, secondary, and tertiary industries. c Based on the per capita income in 1970, the socioeconomic development from less developed to mature industrialization was divided into 6 stages.

Fig. 3. Annual land development scales of cities at different stages of economic development.

whole country; and 27 and 21 cities in the later industrialization stage (LIS) and developed stage (DS), respectively, mainly located in the coastal provinces. The spatial distribution of the five stages of economic development illustrates the regional variation in economic development in China (Fig. 2). Fig. 3 presents the land development scale of cities in different development stages from 2011 to 2015. The annual land development scales of PPS, LIS and DS cities were in steady decline, and the maximum values of the cities in these three development stages in 2011 were 11,080.33 ha, 90,041.40 ha and 96,357.52 ha, respectively. However, the annual land development scales of PIS and MIS cities increased first and then decreased. The maximum values of the cities in these two development stages were 53,669.19 ha and 399,240.22 ha in 2013, respectively. It is worth noting that the demand for construction land in MIS cities has changed significantly changes and that the annual land development scales for these cities experienced significant and rapid growth and decline. Compared with 2011, the gap between the land development scale of MIS cities and the cities in the other four development stages narrowed significantly in 2015. The changes in land development scales in these five stages may reflect the differences in regional economic growth rates and land use patterns in different

stages of development from 2011 to 2015. Although land development in China is greatly influenced by the central government's land management policies, variations between cities at different stages of economic development show that land development is also related to economic growth. In the 2011–2015 period, PPS cities developed an average of 4214.92 hm2 (Table 3), PIS cities developed 6676.20 hm2, MIS cities developed 7870.19 hm2, LIS cities developed 14,695.23 hm2, and LIS cities developed 18,040.07 hm2. These results suggest that regional economic development is directly correlated with land development, perhaps because under the effects of economic agglomeration, cities at higher stages of economic development attract more people and more non-agricultural industry. To accurately explore the relationship between land development and cities' economic development, we introduce a land development density variable. It is the ratio of land for development and redevelopment to the administrative area. The results show that economic growth increases the density of land development. The land development density in DS cities is 13.38 times that of PPS cities, 6.69 times that of PIS cities, 4.55 times that of MIS cities, and 1.5 times that of LIS cities. Additionally, although the average amount of land developed for

Fig. 2. Economic development stages of 289 cities in 2015. 5

Cities xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

J. Wanfu et al.

Table 3 Land developed in cities at five stages of economic development in the 2011–2015. Stages

PPS PIS MIS LIS DS

Total scale (hm2)

42,149.24 233,667.01 1,542,556.50 396,771.28 378,841.52

Average scale (hm2)

Table 5 Variance inflation factors of the explanatory variables.

Development density (hm2/ km2)

4214.92 6676.20 7870.19 14,695.23 18,040.07

All cities PPS PIS MIS LIS DS

0.16 0.32 0.47 1.43 2.14

SIGR

TIGR

PGR

FDIP

DFAI

PD

1.3655 3.1082 1.8062 1.3088 1.5491 1.5165

1.2386 3.1410 1.5391 1.1553 1.2188 1.1761

1.0943 1.3823 1.2630 1.0387 1.3248 1.4015

1.2370 1.2804 1.1330 1.0879 1.3861 1.2341

1.5251 2.7500 2.3146 1.2197 1.2058 1.5691

1.4756 2.9631 2.0664 1.1432 1.3727 1.4742

variables, we calculate the variance inflation factors (VIF). The results show that the VIF of independent variables in each group are < 5 (Table 5). According to Belsley, Kuh, and Welsch (2005), this means there is no significant collinearity between independent variables. Due to the significant fluctuation in land development in 2011–2015, we control for the influence of chronological change when estimating the coefficients. In addition, we add to the model a control variable that does not change with time. Therefore, theoretically, a time-fixed effect model is used to estimate the coefficients. In fact, the Houseman test shows that the fixed effect model is the most suitable for this estimation, except for PPS. (See Table 6.) The estimation results show that the factors that influence land development vary with a city's economic developmental. According to the theory of the stages of economic growth, agriculture dominates the economy in PPS cities, a modern service industry dominates the economy DS cities and PIS, MIS and LIS cities are dominated by a manufacturing-based economy (Chenery et al., 1986; Rostow, 1960). Thus, the development of secondary and tertiary industries may have different effects on land development at different stages of development. However, we find that SIGR does not have a significant impact on land development structures of cities at any stage of economic development, indicating that secondary industry development did not significantly promote land development in China between 2011 and 2015. As the low-cost advantages of China's manufacturing industry weakened after the international financial crisis in 2008, industries might have begun to pay more attention to transformation and upgrading and decreased their dependence on resource consumption. In addition, the central government, which attaches great importance to the intensive use of land, requires local land management departments to actively evaluate development zones and to strive to improve land use. As the demand from foreign markets shrinks, the central government has encouraged residents to increase consumption and to create a serviceoriented economy. Against this background, TIGR has played a significant role in promoting land development across the country, especially in PPS, PIS and MIS cities. Although the economic development in LIS and DS cities is relatively high, the consumption potential of residents may have already been reached. Therefore, TIGR does not significantly promote the land development of cities in these two development stages. In the regional development process, urbanization speed follows the Northam curve (Northam, 1979). Less economically developed cities have fewer non-agricultural employment opportunities and less

industrial-mining-warehouse, residential, public management services, and commercial services purposes all gradually increases over the period, the average amount of land developed for transportation purposes fluctuates (Table 4). Land development structure could reflect industrial structure and urban functions. In the study period, PPS and PIS cities develop land for the following purposes (from the smallest to largest proportion of land): transportation, industrial-mining-warehouse, residential, public management-services, and commercial purposes. In MIS, LIS, and DS cities, the least to most common types of development are industrial-miningwarehouse, transportation, residential, public management services, and commercial development. PPS and PIS cities have relatively high amounts of development in transportation, as growing cities must pay attention to transportation infrastructure and improve the traffic facilities to support industrialization. MIS, LIS and DS cities have relatively higher proportions of industrial-mining-warehouse development than PPS or PIS cities, indicating that during these stages of economic development, the expansion of industrial-mining-warehouse activities is prominent, especially in MIS cities. In addition, residential and public management services development is proportionally higher in LIS cities than in cities in the other four development stages, indicating that the housing demands of residents in LIS cities are relatively large and the real estate industry is relatively prosperous. Moreover, the governments of LIS cities promote the development of public services and public service facilities. PPS and DS cities develop proportionally more commercial land than other cities, indicating that during these stages of economic development the development of commercial facilities is prominent. In short, the land development structures of cities at different stage of economic development are significantly different. With the advance of development stage, the proportions of land developed for residential and public management service use increases, whereas the proportion of land developed for transportation decreases. As the economy grows, the proportion of land developed for industrialmining-warehouse use first increases and then decreases. There is no significant change in the proportion of land used for commercial purposes. 5. Factors influencing land development in cities at different stages of economic development To test for significant collinearity between our explanatory

Table 4 Types of land development in cities at five different stages of economic development. Stages

PPS PIS MIS LIS DS

Transportation

Industrial-miningwarehouse

Residential

Public managementservices

Commercial

Average scale (hm2)

Proportion (%)

Average scale (hm2)

Proportion (%)

Average scale (hm2)

Proportion (%)

Average scale (hm2)

Proportion (%)

Average scale (hm2)

Proportion (%)

1442.59 2261.38 2196.05 3619.46 4769.47

34.23 33.87 27.90 24.63 26.44

1060.76 1685.06 2494.40 3794.82 4905.73

25.17 25.24 31.69 25.82 27.19

784.48 1168.87 1511.91 3524.34 3799.03

18.61 17.51 19.21 23.98 21.06

509.51 950.64 986.93 2534.59 2918.06

12.09 14.24 12.54 17.25 16.18

403.28 460.37 635.82 1163.94 1612.47

9.57 6.90 8.08 7.92 8.94

6

Cities xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

J. Wanfu et al.

Table 6 Estimation results of fixed effect model.

SIGR TIGR PGR FDIP DFAI PD R-squared F Chi-sq

All cities

PPS

PIS

0.0037 (0.0035) 0.0244⁎⁎⁎ (4.3167) 0.0600⁎⁎ (2.5365) 0.0181⁎⁎ (1.9636) 0.7101⁎⁎⁎ (32.4488) −0.1658⁎⁎⁎ (−9.4808) 0.4918 231.33 271.04⁎⁎⁎

−0.0056 (−0.3170) ⁎

0.0498 (1.7062) −0.2131⁎ (−1.6949) 0.1460 (1.1276) 0.3104 (1.1711) 0.1244 (0.7502) 0.4282 4.24 5.40

MIS

−0.011 (−0.9404) ⁎⁎⁎

0.0497 (2.8280) 0.0914 (0.8989) −0.0127 (−0.2955) 0.4282⁎⁎⁎ (3.6418) −0.0461 (−0.6506) 0.1605 5.39 35.36⁎⁎⁎

LIS

0.0069 (1.5289) ⁎⁎⁎

0.0265 (3.7622) 0.0564 (1.6191) 0.0165 (1.3848) 0.6967⁎⁎⁎ (23.9217) −0.1774⁎⁎⁎ (−8.2326) 0.3984 106.96 144.53⁎⁎⁎

DS

−0.0145 (−1.0216) −0.0279 (−1.4989) 0.1340⁎ (1.7064) 0.0081 (0.3346) 0.9192⁎⁎⁎ (14.4956) −0.1960⁎⁎ (−2.5447) 0.7272 55.09 75.39⁎⁎⁎

0.0187 (1.2207) −0.0174 (−0.7949) 0.0264 (0.5963) −0.0034 (−0.1673) 0.6719⁎⁎⁎ (6.5255) −0.2412⁎⁎⁎ (−3.0343) 0.5511 19.23 65.21⁎⁎⁎

Note: ⁎⁎⁎ ⁎⁎ ⁎

p value < 0.01. p value < 0.05. p value < 0.10.

significant in MIS, LIS, and DS cities, showing that a scarcity of land resources restricts the economic development of local governments. Land is not a very scarce resource in PPS and PIS cities; therefore, the negative relationship between population density and land development in these cities is not significant.

demand for land resulting from slower population growth. Cities in the rapid industrialization stage can provide more employment opportunities and thus attract large numbers of migrants. In the advanced stage of economic development, population growth slows and land demand decreases. We find that there is a significant positive relationship between PGR and land development in all of the cities. However, PGR only contributes significantly to the land development of LIS cities. The economic agglomeration effects in PPS, PIS and MIS cities are low, and their ability to attract people is weaker. DS cities with strong economic agglomeration have already passed through the rapid urbanization stage, and their population growth rate has slowed or even become negative. Therefore, there is no significant positive relationship between PGR and the land development of cities in these four stages of economic development, and there is even a significant negative relationship between PGR and land development in PPS cities. In contrast, population growth and land development in LIS cities are spurred by rapid urbanization. As industrialization has occurred, society's wealth has increased, and the trend of economic globalization has become increasingly significant (Chenery et al., 1986; Rostow, 1960). Regional land development can now be adequately supported by domestic capital and foreign capital. We find that FDIP has a positive effect on land development in all cities. However, PPS, PIS and MIS cities are mainly located in remote areas and tend to have no advantages in attracting foreign capital. Therefore, foreign direct investment may not be a major factor in land development in these cities. Although LIS and DS cities have relatively high levels of globalization, costs in these cities have increased rapidly in recent years, and some foreign-funded enterprises have adjusted their investment structures to reduce their consumption of land resources. From 2013 to 2014, some cities with high economic development levels in China's coastal areas even experienced significant foreign capital withdrawal (Li, Liu, & Yang, 2016). In addition, DFAI has a significant positive impact on land development in PIS, MIS, LIS and DS cities. The location conditions of PPS cities are relatively poor, which may lead to a lack of advantages in attracting foreign capital and domestic fixed asset investment. That is, the slow growth of production efficiency in PPS cities leads to lower capital accumulation (Chenery et al., 1986; Rostow, 1960). Thus, DFAI has not significantly promoted land development in these cities. It is noteworthy that DFAI has a stronger effect on land development than any other factors, especially in LIS cities. This also shows that China's economic growth relies excessively on domestic investment. As expected, controlling for increasing population density reduces the rate of land development. However, this restrictive effect is

6. Conclusions and policy implications Although studies have extensively discussed regional land development, they have neglected the characteristics and influencing factors of land development at different stages. This paper takes 289 cities in China with significant differences in regional economic development as an example and uses land transaction data from 2011 to 2015 to fill this gap. We find that as regions develop economically, both the scale and the density of land development increase. This is consistent with the findings of Schneider and Woodcock (2008), who identified the spatial expansion patterns of 25 cities around the world, but inconsistent with the findings of Jiang et al. (2016), perhaps because they only considered land leasing and ignored land allocation. In highly urbanized Latin America, the expansion scale of small- and medium-sized cities is larger than that of large cities (Andrade-Núñez & Aide, 2018), which is different from the findings of this article. In addition, the different structures of land development in cities at different stages of economic development are significant. PPS and PIS cities develop higher proportions of land for transportation use, especially PPS cities. MIS, LIS and DS cities develop higher proportions of industrial-mining-warehouse areas, especially MIS cities. Compared with cities in other development stages, LIS cities have a higher proportion of residential and public management service development projects. This finding is similar to that of Gao et al. (2015). However, compared with some cities with higher economic development levels, such as Seoul, New York and Tokyo, the proportion of residential land in DS cities in China with less suburbanization may be lower, and the proportion of industrial land may be significantly higher (DCP, 2018; Hong, 1993; Huang, Yang, & Zhang, 2017; Kim, 2013; Overman, Puga, & Turner, 2008). Notably, cities with high levels of economic development do not have the highest proportion of commercial land. Moreover, the estimation results confirm that the effect of different factors on land development is significantly different at different stages of economic development. SIGR and FDIP do not significantly promote the land development of cities in various developmental stages. However, there is a close and significantly positive relationship between DFAI and land development in cities at every stage of economic development except PPS. PGR can 7

Cities xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

J. Wanfu et al.

Philosophy and Social Science (No. 17BRK010), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41601161).

significantly stimulate land development in LIS cities, and TIGR has a significant positive relationship with land development in PPS, PIS and MIS cities. The comparison of land development mechanisms at different stages of development will facilitate the comprehensive comparison of the differences in land development patterns and mechanisms in countries at different levels of development. According to the economic growth stage theory and the Northam curve, as society evolves from PPS to DS, production efficiency, economic extraversion and industrial structure level improve continuously, accumulated capital increases and urbanization proceeds through the stages of slow growth, rapid growth and maturity (Chenery et al., 1986; Northam, 1979; Rostow, 1960). In addition, with the expansion of economic output, the scarcity of resources and the environment pollution is becoming increasingly prominent, as it promotes the transformation of economic growth modes and reduces the demand for scarce resources (Jin, Zhou, & Luo, 2018). Hence, the characteristics of regional social and economic development at different stages of development may affect land development patterns. Moreover, when analyzing the influencing factors of regional land development in different development stages, it is necessary to combine the theory of regional economic growth stage with the current social and economic development situation of the region. The characteristics and influencing factors of land development in each development stage identified in this paper enrich the theory of regional economic growth stage. Our findings contribute to understanding the mechanisms of urban expansion and land development in cities at different development stages in developing countries and can be used to formulate or improve land policies corresponding to their development stages. It is worth noting that the regional land development structure may vary across different cultural backgrounds, which is a topic for future research. Innovation-driven economic development is becoming the new normal in China, and land scarcity will become an even more prominent issue. Cities at different stages of development should implement differentiated land management strategies to ensure social and economic sustainable development. The scarcity of land resources in cities with higher levels of economic development is significant, yet the demand for construction land is relatively high. Such cities should pay attention to the redevelopment of inefficient land, scientifically delimit urban growth boundaries and encourage the vertical growth of urban space. Cities in the low development stage usually have to undertake a large number of cultivated land protection tasks, and their urban expansion may be significantly restricted. These cities should strengthen the development of low hill and gently sloped land (diqiuhuanpo) to meet economic development and should replenish cultivated land of the same size and quality after transforming cultivated land to construction land. Whether in developed or relatively undeveloped areas, the fundamental way to coordinate farmland protection and economic growth is to change the growth mode. In addition, although urban land in China has expanded faster than the urban population since the reform and opening up (Li, Chen, & Xu, 2009), the low proportion of residential land supply in China during the study period is one of the main reasons for the rapid rise of housing prices in recent years. It is suggested that the land management departments in densely populated cities should increase residential land supply to ensure steady and sustainable economic growth. While strengthening economic and population agglomeration, cities in underdeveloped areas should strictly control their per-capita construction land area to promote coordination between urban expansion and population growth. Moreover, the formulation of annual land development plans has become an important work of local land departments. Our findings can help cities at different stages of economic development determine their best strategies for land development.

References Aljoufie, M., Zuidgeest, M., Brussel, M., & Maarseveen, M. V. (2013). Spatial–temporal analysis of urban growth and transportation in Jeddah City. Saudi Arabia. Cities, 31, 57–68. Alonso, W. (1964). Location and land use: Toward a general theory of land rent. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press. Anas, A. (1996). General equilibrium models of polycentric urban land use with endogenous congestion and job agglomeration. Journal of Urban Economics, 40, 232–256. Andrade-Núñez, M. J., & Aide, T. M. (2018). Built-up expansion between 2001 and 2011 in South America continues well beyond the cities. Environmental Research Letters, 13, 084006. Arellano, M. (2003). Panel data econometrics. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Bai, X., Shi, P., & Liu, Y. (2014). Realizing China's urban dream. Nature Comments, 509, 158–160. Bai, Z. L. (2010). The specification of model, statistical tests and new progresses of panel data analysis. Statistics & Information Forum, 25(10), 3–12 (in Chinese). Barrens, K. B., Morgan, J. M., Roberge, M. C., & Lowe, S. (2001). Sprawl development: Its patterns, consequences, and measurement. Towson: Towson University. Belsley, D. A., Kuh, E., & Welsch, R. E. (2005). Regression diagnostics: Identifying influential data and sources of collinearity. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons. Bičı́k, I., Jeleček, L., & Štěpánek, V. (2001). Land-use changes and their social driving forces in Czechia in the 19th and 20th centuries. Land Use Policy, 18, 65–73. Bloom, D., Canning, D., & Fink, G. (2008). Urbanization and the wealth of nations. Science, 319, 772–775. Boustan, L. P. (2013). Local public goods and the demand for high-income municipalities. Journal of Urban Economics, 76, 71–82. Chakir, R., & Gallo, L. J. (2013). Predicting land use allocation in France: A spatial panel data analysis. Ecological Economics, 92, 114–125. Chen, J., Gao, J., & Chen, W. (2016). Urban land expansion and the transitional mechanisms in Nanjing, China. Habitat International, 53, 274–283. Chenery, H., Robinson, S., & Syrquin, M. (1986). Industrialization and growth: A comparative study. New York: Oxford University Press. Cho, D. S., & Moon, C. H. (1998). A nation's international competitiveness in different stages of economic development. Journal of Competitiveness Studies, 6, 5–19. Deng, X., Huang, J., Rozelle, S., & Uchida, E. (2006). Cultivated land conversion and potential agricultural productivity in China. Land Use Policy, 23, 372–384. Deng, X., Huang, J., Rozelle, S., & Uchida, E. (2010). Economic growth and the expansion of urban land in China. Urban Studies, 47(4), 813–843. Ding, C., & Lichtenberg, E. (2011). Land and urban economic growth in China. Journal of Regional Science, 51, 299–317. Ding, C., Niu, Y., & Lichtenberg, E. (2014). Spending preferences of local officials with offbudget land revenues of Chinese cities. China Economic Review, 31, 265–276. Du, J., Thill, J. C., Peiser, R. B., & Feng, C. (2014). Urban land market and land-use changes in post-reform China: A case study of Beijing. Landscape and Urban Planning, 124, 118–128. Fay, M., & Opal, C. (2000). Urbanization without growth: A not-so-uncommon phenomenon. Washington DC: The World Bank. Feng, J., Zhou, Y., & Wu, F. (2008). New trends of suburbanization in Beijing since 1990: From government-led to market-oriented. Regional Studies, 42, 83–99. Gao, B., Huang, Q., He, C., Sun, Z., & Zhang, D. (2016). How does sprawl differ across cities in China? A multi-scale investigation using nighttime light and census data. Landscape and Urban Planning, 148, 89–98. Gao, B., Liu, W., & Dunford, M. (2014). State land policy, land markets and geographies of manufacturing: The case of Beijing, China. Land Use Policy, 36, 1–12. Gao, J., Wei, Y. H. D., Chen, W., & Chen, J. (2014). Economic transition and urban land expansion in provincial China. Habitat International, 44, 461–473. Gao, J., Wei, Y. H. D., Chen, W., & Komali, Y. (2015). Urban land expansion and structural change in the Yangtze River Delta, China. Sustainability, 7, 10281–10307. Glassman, J. (2006). Primitive accumulation, accumulation by dispossession, accumulation by ‘extra-economic’ means. Progress in Human Geography, 30(5), 608–625. Glock, B., & Häussermann, H. (2004). New trends in urban development and public policy in eastern Germany: Dealing with the vacant housing problem at the local level. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 28, 919–929. Guo, Y., Xiao, Y., & Yuan, Q. (2016). The redevelopment of peri-urban villages in the context of path-dependent land institution change and its impact on Chinese inclusive urbanization: The case of Nanhai, China. Cities, 60, 466–475. Hamidi, S., & Ewing, R. (2014). A longitudinal study of changes in urban sprawl between 2000 and 2010 in the United States. Landscape and Urban Planning, 128, 72–82. Harvey, D. (1985). The urbanization of capital: Studies in the history and theory of capitalist urbanization. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. He, C., Huang, Z., & Wang, R. (2014). Land use change and economic growth in urban China: A structural equation analysis. Urban Studies, 51(13), 2880–2898. Hong, C. (1993). Urban land use in Tokyo in the early twentieth century: A comparison with Edo. Geographical Review of Japan Ser. A, 66, 540–554. Hospers, G. J. (2011). Place marketing in shrinking Europe: Some geographical notes. Journal of Economic and Social Geography, 102, 369–375. Hsing, Y. (2006). Land and territorial politics in urban China. The China Quarterly, 187, 575–591. Huang, Y., Yang, B., & Zhang, F. (2017). The characteristics of land use of world cities and

Funding This research was funded by the National Planning Office of 8

Cities xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

J. Wanfu et al.

USA: Ashgate. Plieninger, T., Draux, H., Fagerholm, N., Bieling, C., Bürgi, M., Kizos, T., ... Verburg, P. H. (2016). The driving forces of landscape change in Europe: A systematic review of the evidence. Land Use Policy, 57, 204–214. Qi, Y. J., Yang, Y., & Jin, F. J. (2013). China's economic development stage and its spatiotemporal evolution: A prefectural-level analysis. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 23(2), 297–314. Qian, Z. (2008). Empirical evidence from Hangzhou's urban land reform. Habitat International, 32, 494–511. Robert, A. B. (2009). Urban population loss in historical perspective: United States, 1820–2000. Environment and Planning A, 41, 514–528. Rostow, W. W. (1960). The stages of economic growth: A non-communist manifesto. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Saiz, A. (2010). The geographic determinants of housing supply. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125, 1253–1296. Schneider, A., & Woodcock, C. E. (2008). Compact, dispersed, fragmented, extensive? A comparison of urban growth in twenty-five global cities using remotely sensed data, pattern metrics and census information. Urban Studies, 45(3), 659–692. Seto, K. C., Fragkias, M., Guneralp, B., & Reilly, M. K. (2011). A meta-analysis of global urban land expansion. PLoS One, 6(8), e23777. Seto, K. C., & Kaufmann, R. K. (2003). Modeling the drivers of urban land use change in the Pearl River Delta, China: Integrating remote sensing with socioeconomic data. Land Economics, 2003(79), 106–121. Shu, B., Li, Y., Qu, Y., Yong, X., & Li, X. (2014). Urban land expansion and its driving forces in different functional cities: An empirical analysis based on 137 cities in China. Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University (Social Sciences Edition), 14, 86–92 (in Chinese). Song, W. (2014). Decoupling cultivated land loss by construction occupation from economic growth in Beijing. Habitat International, 43, 198–205. Tan, M., Li, X., Xie, H., & Lu, C. (2005). Urban land expansion and arable land loss in China: A case study of Beijing-tian-Jin-Hebei region. Land Use Policy, 22, 187–196. Tao, R., Su, F., Liu, M., & Cao, G. (2010). Land leasing and local public finance in China's regional development: Evidence from prefecture-level cities. Urban Studies, 47(10), 2217–2236. Tian, L., & Yao, Z. (2018). From state-dominant to bottom-up redevelopment: Can institutional change facilitate urban and rural redevelopment in China. Cities, 76, 72–83. Tighe, J. R., & Ganning, J. P. (2015). The divergent city: Unequal and uneven development in St. Louis. Urban Geography, 36(5), 654–673. Walker, R. (2001). Industry builds the City: The suburbanization of manufacturing in the San Francisco Bay Area, 1850–1940. Journal of Historical Geography, 27, 36–57. Wang, Y. (2016). Spatial–temporal characteristics of the economy in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei and reflections on the collaborative development. Price: Theory & Practice, 11, 142–145 (in Chinese). Wei, Y. H. D. (2005). Planning Chinese cities: The limits of transitional institutions. Urban Geography, 26, 200–221. Wei, Y. H. D. (2012). Restructuring for growth in urban China: Transitional institutions, urban development, and spatial transformation. Habitat International, 36, 396–405. Wei, Y. H. D. (2015). Zone fever, project fever: Economic transition, development policy, and urban expansion in China. Geographical Review, 105, 156–177. Xie, J., Jin, X., Lin, Y., Cheng, Y., Yang, X., Bai, Q., & Zhou, Y. (2017). Quantitative estimation and spatial reconstruction of urban and rural construction land in Jiangsu Province, 1820–1985. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 27(10), 1185–1208. Xu, J., Yeh, A. G. O., & Wu, F. (2009). Land commodification: New land development and politics in China since the late 1990s. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 33, 890–913. Xu, X., & Min, X. (2013). Quantifying spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion in China using remote sensing data. Cities, 35, 104–113. Ye, L., & Wu, A. M. (2014). Urbanization, land development, and land financing: Evidence from Chinese cities. Journal of Urban Affairs, 36, 354–368. Zhang, L., Yue, W., Liu, Y., Fan, P., & Wei, Y. H. D. (2018). Suburban industrial land development in transitional China: Spatial restructuring and determinants. Cities, 78, 96–107. Zhang, W., & Bao, S. (2015). Created unequal: China's regional pay inequality and its relationship with mega-trend urbanization. Applied Geography, 61, 81–93. Zhao, P. (2010). Sustainable urban expansion and transportation in a growing megacity: Consequences of urban sprawl for mobility on the urban fringe of Beijing. Habitat International, 34, 236–243. Zhao, P. (2017). Reprint of “An ‘unceasing war’ on land development on the urban fringe of Beijing: A case study of gated informal housing communities”. Cities, 60, 487–494. Zhao, P., & Zhang, M. (2016). The role of villages and townships in informal land development in China: An investigation on the city fringe of Beijing. Sustainability, 8, 255. Zhou, T., Zhao, R., & Zhou, Y. (2017). Factors influencing land development and redevelopment during China's rapid urbanization: Evidence from Haikou city, 2003–2016. Sustainability, 9, 2011. Zhou, Y., & Ma, L. J. C. (2003). China's urbanization levels: Reconstructing a baseline from the fifth population census. The China Quarterly, 173, 176–196.

the inspiration for Beijing. Urban Planning International, 32, 13–19 (in Chinese). Huang, Z., & Du, X. (2017). Strategic interaction in local governments' industrial land supply: Evidence from China. Urban Studies, 54(6), 1328–1346. Huang, Z., Wei, Y. H. D., He, C., & Li, H. (2015). Urban land expansion under economic transition in China: A multilevel modeling analysis. Habitat International, 47, 69–82. Jiang, L., Deng, X., & Seto, K. C. (2012). Multi-level modeling of urban expansion and cultivated land conversion for urban hotspots counties in China. Landscape and Urban Planning, 108, 131–139. Jiang, M., Xin, L.j., Li, X.b., & Tan, M. H. (2016). Spatiotemporal variation of China's state-owned construction land supply from 2003 to 2014. Sustainability, 8, 1137. Jin, W., Zhou, C., & Luo, L. (2018). Impact of land input on economic growth at different stages of development in Chinese cities and regions. Sustainability, 10, 2847. Jiron, L. A. C. (2003). Residential location patterns in a Latin American city: Santiago, Chile. Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 67, 911–920. Kheir, N., & Portnov, B. A. (2016). Economic, demographic and environmental factors affecting urban land prices in the Arab sector in Israel. Land Use Policy, 50, 518–527. Kim, S. H. (2013). Changes in urban planning policies and urban morphologies in Seoul, 1960s to 2000s. Architectural Research, 15(3), 133–141. Kuang, W., Liu, J., Dong, J., Chi, W., & Zhang, C. (2016). The rapid and massive urban and industrial land expansions in China between 1990 and 2010: A CLUD–based analysis of their trajectories, patterns, and drivers. Landscape and Urban Planning, 145, 21–33. Labbé, D. (2016). Critical reflections on land appropriation and alternative urbanization trajectories in periurban Vietnam. Cities, 53, 150–155. Labbé, D., & Musil, C. (2014). Periurban land redevelopment in Vietnam under market socialism. Urban Studies, 51(6), 1146–1161. Lefebvre, H. (1991). The production of space. Oxford: Blackwell. Lewis, R. D. (2008). Manufacturing suburbs: Building work and home on the metropolitan fringe. Philadelphia: Temple University Press. Li, H., Wei, Y. H. D., Liao, F. H. F., & Huang, Z. (2015). Administrative hierarchy and urban land expansion in transitional China. Applied Geography, 56, 177–186. Li, X., Chen, G., & Xu, X. (2009). Urban allometric growth in China: Theory and facts. Acta Geographica Sinica, 64(4), 399–407 (in Chinese). Li, Y. M., Liu, X. J., & Yang, L. Z. (2016). Withdrawal of foreign-funded enterprises: Causes and influencing mechanisms: An empirical analysis based on a questionnaire survey of 10 eastern coastal cities. Management World, 4, 37–51 (in Chinese). Lian, W., & Ren, B. P. (2009). Evaluation on the stage of economic development in China and analysis on its characteristics at the present stage. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 4, 3–18 (in Chinese). Lin, G. C. S. (2004). Toward a post-socialist city? Economic tertiarization and urban reformation in the Guangzhou metropolis, China. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 45, 18–44. Lin, G. C. S. (2007). Reproducing spaces of Chinese urbanization: New city-based and land-centered urban transformation. Urban Studies, 44(9), 1827–1855. Lin, G. C. S., & Ho, S. P. S. (2005). The state, land system, and land development processes in contemporary China. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 95, 411–436. Liu, R., & Wong, T. C. (2018). Urban village redevelopment in Beijing: The state-dominated formalization of informal housing. Cities, 72, 160–172. Liu, T., Cao, G., Yan, Y., & Wang, R. Y. (2016). Urban land marketization in China: Central policy, local initiative, and market mechanism. Land Use Policy, 57, 265–276. Liu, Y., Fan, P., Yue, W., & Song, Y. (2018). Impacts of land finance on urban sprawl in China: The case of Chongqing. Land Use Policy, 72, 420–432. Liu, Y. Q., & Long, H. L. (2016). Land use transitions and their dynamic mechanism: The case of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 26(5), 515–530. Luo, J., Zhang, X., Wu, Y., Shen, J., Shen, L., & Xing, X. (2018). Urban land expansion and the floating population in China: For production or for living? Cities, 74, 219–228. Martinez-Fernandez, C., Audirac, I., Fol, S., & Cunningham-Sabot, E. (2012). Shrinking cities: Urban challenges of globalization. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 36, 213–225. New York City Department of City Planning (DCP) (2018). https://www1.nyc.gov/site/ planning/zoning/districts-tools/residence-districts-r1-r10.page. Northam, R. (1979). Urban geography. New York: John Wiley. Osman, T., Divigalpitiya, P., & Arima, T. (2016). Driving factors of urban sprawl in Giza governorate of greater Cairo metropolitan region using AHP method. Land Use Policy, 58, 21–31. Overman, H. G., Puga, D., & Turner, M. A. (2008). Decomposing the growth in residential land in the United States. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 38, 487–497. Paudel, B., Zhang, Y., Li, S., & Liu, L. (2018). Spatiotemporal changes in agricultural land cover in Nepal over the last 100 years. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 28(10), 1519–1537. Peck, J. (2011). Neoliberal suburbanism: Frontier space. Urban Geography, 32(6), 884–919. Phelps, N. (2010). Suburbs for nations? Some interdisciplinary connections on the suburban economy. Cities, 27, 68–76. Ping, Y. C. (2011). Explaining land use change in a Guangdong county: The supply side of the story. The China Quarterly, 207, 626–648. Plantinga, A. J., & Irwin, E. G. (2006). Overview of empirical methods. In K. P. Bell, K. J. Boyle, & J. Rubin (Eds.). Economics of rural land-use change (pp. 113–134). Burlington,

9