- Email: [email protected]
Exploring tourism businesses’ adaptive response to climate change in two Great Lakes destination communities
Journal of Destination Marketing & Management 12 (2019) 125–129
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Journal of Destination Marketing & Management journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jdmm
Regional Spotlight
Exploring tourism businesses’ adaptive response to climate change in two Great Lakes destination communities
T
⁎
Natalie China, , Jonathon Dayb, Sandra Sydnorb, Linda S. Prokopyc, Keith A. Cherkauera a
Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA School of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA c Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA b
A R T I C LE I N FO
A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Climate change Tourism management Business adaptation Climate change perceptions Barriers to adaptation Qualitative research
Climate change is one of the most significant challenges facing the global tourism sector, and destinations around the world are increasingly coming to terms with changing weather. Within destination systems, tourism businesses have been encouraged to take proactive steps to prepare for climate change, but in many destinations, adaptation has been limited. In this Regional Spotlight, findings from a series of qualitative interviews with representatives from businesses in two Great Lakes destinations are used to highlight some of the major challenges facing the region's tourism sector in terms of climate change. Results support findings of existing research that tourism businesses are strongly aware of how they are impacted by weather and climate. Conversely, though many interviewees were able to discuss how their businesses could be affected by climate change, they showed little concern that it would present new challenges and expressed a belief that it could be beneficial in some cases. Common barriers to proactive climate change action include limited resources, lack of knowledge of options, and a belief that action is unnecessary. The results of this study suggest that future work focused on how to build stronger public-private partnerships between policymakers, destination marketing organizations (DMOs), researchers, and tourism professionals in the Great Lakes, and perhaps other destinations, could help: (1) build awareness of potential novel or nonlinear impacts of climate change among tourism professionals, and (2) increase the availability of scientific information that meets their decision-making needs; subsequently, also leading to more effective destination-based climate change management strategies.
1. Introduction—The challenge of climate change for destinations The hospitality and tourism industry, which contributed over US$7 trillion to the global economy and nearly US$1.5 billion to the US economy in 2015, is an economic sector that could be especially impacted by climate change (World Travel & Tourism Council, 2016a, 2016b). Recent findings in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), as summarized by Scott, Hall, and Gössling (2016) p.22, suggest that ‘all tourism destinations will need to adapt to climate change’. While there has been some preliminary work on especially vulnerable destinations, such as small island states (Clayton, 2009; Scott, Simpson, & Sim, 2012), many destinations are yet to come to terms with the potential impacts of climate change and the actions required to respond. Weather impacts the tourism system and, in particular, destinations in a variety of ways. In this context, weather refers to short-term atmospheric conditions (from a few days to up to a season), and climate
⁎
refers to average weather conditions over the long-term, generally on the order of several decades (Gutro, 2005). Tourism is closely linked to weather because of its importance to tourists when planning vacations and other leisure travel (Crompton, 1979; Pang, McKercher, & Prideaux, 2013; Ritchie & Crouch, 2003). Favorable weather can be a motivator for travel and a major destination asset, while unfavorable weather can discourage travel to a given destination or negatively impact the travel experience (Coghlan & Prideaux, 2009; Ritchie & Crouch, 2003). Similarly, climate shapes tourists’ expectations for a destination as far as its weather and can, to some extent, affect their overall satisfaction with a travel experience if these expectations are not met (Denstadli, Jacobsen, & Lohmann, 2011). Much of the existing research examining the potential impacts of climate change on the hospitality and tourism sector has focused on understanding tourists’ preferences when it comes to weather and climate and how these preferences could affect travel to destinations affected by climate change in the future (Kaján & Saarinen, 2013; Scott, Gössling, & de Freitas, 2008).
Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (N. Chin).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2018.12.009 Received 12 March 2018; Received in revised form 14 December 2018; Accepted 31 December 2018 Available online 09 January 2019 2212-571X/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Journal of Destination Marketing & Management 12 (2019) 125–129
N. Chin et al.
summer, though winter recreation is also popular in both locations. In addition, both locations are located along the Lake Michigan coastline. Interviewees were purposively sampled from a list of potential businesses provided by local place-based experts well-versed in tourism and who hold key leadership positions in local tourism organizations (e.g. the director of the convention and visitor bureau). The main goals of interviewee selection were to include individuals who represent a mix of business types and can provide broad perspectives of the tourism sector in each community, i.e. a mix of hotels, restaurants, local attractions, events, national or state parks, and, in the case of Muskegon, boat cruises. The events included in this study were classified as businesses as they exist as their own entities or organizations, engage in long-term planning (generally several years in advance), and serve important roles in their local tourism sectors by bringing in visitors and economic revenue. The characteristics of the groups of businesses were generally consistent across the two communities (Table 2). All of the interviews were conducted by the primary author and recorded. The length of the interviews ranged in length from 10 to 60 min, on average taking 30 min. Interview data was transcribed verbatim by the primary author and one research assistant. A codebook was developed by three members of the research team; checked for intercoder reliability using the Kappa coefficient (0.79) (Cohen, 1960); and used by the primary author to code all of the interviews in NVivo 11.
Destination systems must consider not only changes in demand but also how tourism businesses might respond to climate change. There is broad acknowledgment of the risks faced by tourism businesses from climate change; however, an awareness of the importance of weather and climate to tourism businesses does not necessarily translate to awareness of climate change or a belief in the need to adapt (Kaján & Saarinen, 2013). Research in other sectors has shown that businesses may need to adapt a variety of practices including their basic routines, their supply chains, and their target customer bases with changes likely being made incrementally when businesses face new situations (Berkhout, Hertin, & Gann, 2006; Zollo & Winter, 2002). On the other hand, changes in extreme weather events may require a more proactive approach to ensure business resilience (Brouder & Lundmark, 2011; Ritchie, 2008). Regardless, coordinated action to develop holistic and proactive climate change adaptation approaches for the tourism sector as a whole will likely require broader networks and partnerships, including at the destination level (Marshall, Marshall, Abdulla, Rouphael, & Ali, 2011; Morrison & Pickering, 2013). Given the plethora of meanings and interpretations of climate change science, this work utilizes qualitative analysis based on a new framework, the sense, anticipate, adapt, learn (SAAL) framework, to explore tourism managers’ awareness and understanding and answer questions in a methodical way. The SAAL framework describes one process through which resilient complex systems prepare for and recover from disruptive events (Park, Seager, Rao, Convertino, & Linkov, 2013). Within this context, ‘sense’ describes the ability to monitor stresses; ‘anticipate’ is the ability to foresee potential crises and disasters; ‘adapt’ is the ability to act on information that is sensed and anticipated to prevent failure; and ‘learn’ is the ability to take knowledge from the past and apply it to the future (Park et al., 2013). For this project, the primary aim was to use different aspects of the SAAL framework to understand business owners’ perceptions of the need to adapt and the complexities facing climate change adaptation, with the ultimate goal being to promote better strategies for climate change adaptation in the tourism sector. Specifically, this study addresses the following research questions:
3. Perceptions of climate change in Great Lake destinations In general, the interviewees in this study indicated that weather and climate affect their businesses—in many cases significantly and in multiple aspects of the business, including customer numbers, customer safety, business operations, profits, and employee hiring. Some of the types of weather and climate commonly named as having an impact were rain, severe storms, and unseasonably high or low temperatures, with the timing of weather events having some effect on the magnitude of the impact. It is expected that this would be true throughout the Great Lakes region given the general importance of weather and climate to the tourism sector. Study findings also indicate that certain types of businesses may be more resilient to the effects of weather than others; e.g. the national and state parks included in the study seemed more highly impacted by weather than restaurants. In addition, the different businesses are affected differently by certain types of weather: e.g. extreme heat in the summer can push more people to engage in beach and outdoor water recreation, hurting businesses that are reliant on indoor or other nonwater related outdoor activities. Subsequently, this suggests that climate change could create a competitive advantage for some businesses over others within and between different destinations. When asked about climate change specifically, most interviewees in this study did not expect any novel or significant impacts on their businesses. Similar to current perceptions of weather and climate, future climate change was seen most often as having the potential to affect customers, such as customer numbers and safety, and operations, such as operating costs and operating season. Other potential impacts included impacts on employees, such as their availability and safety, and business inventory or offerings. These results show that, while it is true that overall trends in average weather and climate may end up being positive for Great Lakes tourism businesses, the potential for nonlinear effects, i.e. low probability/high impact events, need to be incorporated into larger discussions around tourism and climate change (Schneider, 2004). In addition, the novel ways that tourism businesses could be affected by climate change need to be better communicated to tourism business owners and operators. Previous work has shown that tourism stakeholders may be ‘overestimating their ability to adapt’ to more extreme potential future projections of climate change (Scott et al., 2016, p. 22). The impacts of climate change were expected to be mixed by about
1. How do tourism businesses perceive that they are impacted by climate and weather? 2. How do tourism businesses perceive that they could be impacted by climate change? 3. How are tourism businesses preparing for future weather and climate? 4. What are the barriers to climate change adaptation? 2. Study locations and methodology This Regional Spotlight is focused on two destination communities in North America's Laurentian Great Lakes, the Indiana Dunes in Indiana and Muskegon, Michigan, as tourism is a key part of the region's economy. The industry supplies 10% of the region's 51 million jobs, as well as billions of dollars to its economy (Council of the Great Lakes Region, 2017). Much of the region's tourism activities are dependent on weather and climate; e.g. beachgoing, boating, birding, skiing, snowmobiling, ice fishing, and camping are all popular activities. Subsequently, climate change, which is projected to lead to increased temperatures, increased total precipitation, decreased snow and ice cover, and more intense and frequent extreme weather events (e.g. storms and droughts) in the Great Lakes, could have significant impacts on the region's tourism sector (Great Lakes Integrated Sciences + Assessments, 2014). The two communities in this study were selected because their tourism industries are important to their state economies, are of a similar size, and are comprised of a number of small and medium sized businesses (Table 1). These two communities also provide similar outdoor recreational opportunities and have peak operating seasons in the 126
Journal of Destination Marketing & Management 12 (2019) 125–129
N. Chin et al.
Table 1 Summary of case study community characteristics related to tourism. Indiana Dunes, IN (Porter County) Importance of destination to state economy Size of tourism sectorc Types of tourist activities Peak tourism season a b c d e
Second in Indiana for tourism spending
Muskegon, MI (Muskegon County) a
10th in Michigan for tourism revenueb
~320 accommodations and food services businesses Iconic and new attractions; beach recreation; bird-watching; outdoor recreationd Memorial Day - Labor Day
~340 accommodations and food services businesses Outdoor recreation; water recreation; water parks; ship displays; museums; summer festivalse Memorial Day - Labor Day
(Rockport Analytics LLC, 2014). (Alexander, 2013). (United States Census Bureau, 2014). (Indiana Dunes Tourism, 2016). (Alexander, 2013; Muskegon County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2016).
Table 2 Summary of business characteristics for each case study community. Indiana Dunes Business Type
Length of Operation (in Years)
Peak Operating Seasona
Perceived Reliance on Nature-Based Tourism
Event: 1 Hotel: 2 Local Attraction: 5 National/State Park: 2 Restaurant/Food Truck: 2
Less than 3: 1 3–5: 1 6–10: 0 11–20: 3 More than 20: 7
Spring Shoulder: 5 Summer: 11 Fall Shoulder: 4 Winter: 0
High: 4 Medium: 6 Low: 1 Not Sure: 1
Business Type
Length of Operation (in Years)
Peak Operating Seasona
Perceived Reliance on Nature-Based Tourism
Boat Cruises: 2 Event: 2 Hotel: 1 Local Attraction: 1 National/State Park: 2 Restaurant/Food Truck: 3
Less than 3: 1 3–5: 3 6–10: 0 11–20: 3 More than 20: 4
Spring Shoulder: 2 Summer: 9 Fall Shoulder: 0 Winter: 2
High: 4 Medium: 6 Low: 1 Not Sure: 0
Muskegon
a
May exceed total number of businesses, since peak operating season can include multiple seasons.
outdoor events. However, taking action faces multiple barriers, ranging from limited resources, particularly financial, to inflexibility in terms of location and scheduling to a lack of knowledge of adaptation options. There also seemed to be an underlying attitude, even with interviewees who said that they believe in climate change, that adaptation is not necessary, most often because it is believed that the impacts of climate change will be insignificant or slow to develop or that being flexible is the best strategy for dealing with weather unpredictability. These reactions to climate change were not unexpected based on findings of previous research, and they demonstrate the continued difficulty of encouraging proactive behavior to prepare for climate change at the business level; however, they also indicate that there may still be a gap in knowledge of climate change adaptation options at the destination level. Additionally, another barrier that was not directly mentioned by interviewees but implied by the fact that only half of them engage in strategic planning at least 3–5 years into the future and only three of them have included weather in those discussions is that many tourism businesses do not operate based on timeframes under which climate change will be most salient, an important point for analysts and researchers who are developing climate change information for the tourism sector. A lack of local, state or national government efforts to prepare for climate change was also identified by two interviewees as being a potential barrier to future adaptation, suggesting that there is a role for local governments and larger tourism organizations to play in business preparedness and adaptation.
half of the interviewees in this study, i.e. they believed that climate change could generate profits by lengthening the shoulder seasons while also potentially generating costs, such as those due to damage from increased storm frequency and severity. One of the key aspects of developing and implementing effective strategies for dealing with climate change will be to consider how to capitalize on potential benefits while minimizing potential costs from the perspectives of individual businesses. For some businesses, the costs of climate change may be noticeably higher, e.g. those focused on winter tourism and recreation, which presents greater challenges and may require more costly or creative solutions. Despite a broad awareness of the importance of weather and climate and the acknowledgement that climate change could affect their businesses, very few interviewees in this study said that they were currently doing anything to prepare for or adapt to the potential impacts of climate change. There were three cases where climate change adaptation was actively occurring, in response to (1) perceived shifts in the seasons, (2) shortening winters, and (3) changing conditions in Lake Michigan. More often, specific businesses were adapting to past experiences with weather. Some of the strategies currently being used by interviewees to deal with unfavorable weather and climate include ensuring that emergency procedures are in place and diversifying offerings, e.g. adding snowshoes to winter offerings to deal with less consistent winters. Interviewees proposed some additional strategies for adapting to future climate change, including making operational changes, i.e. expanding the length of a restaurant's patio season to take advantage of a longer shoulder season, relying more on indoor offerings and spaces, or making changes to equipment, e.g. getting larger or heated tents for 127
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4. Implications for destination management
for each community. Feedback on this work demonstrates that in communities like the two included in this study, where climate change impacts may not be as acute, stakeholder engagement and science communication strategies can highlight adaptation approaches that capitalize on opportunities provided by expanding shoulder seasons, for example, and encourage preparation for extreme wind events and storms. The development of salient scientific information and effective climate change adaptation strategies cannot, however, be done without this type of in-depth stakeholder input. It is hoped that future work will expand the scope of this study to other destinations and use these findings to develop better climate change science for a broader group of stakeholders in the tourism sector.
While the findings of this work are not generalizable beyond these two locations, the insights gained through this process have relevance to the two Great Lakes destinations in this study and to other tourism destination communities, as well. The lack of conceptualization of novel or significant impacts from climate change by the tourism professionals in this study highlights the commonly noted challenge of encouraging proactive adaptive behavior when it comes to climate change. Given the lack of awareness of potential issues and expectations of only low impact changes, it is rational for the individuals in this study to expect to need to take only incremental or minor actions to adapt, such as those that can be included in ongoing capital improvement. In addition, some of the short-term benefits of climate change for these two communities will be positive. The lack of incentives and motivation to change from ‘business as usual,’ as shown in the results of this work, suggest that public-private partnerships could help climate change adaptation efforts in the Great Lakes tourism sector, if these perceptions are, in fact, widespread. Destination marketing organizations (DMOs) and other government departments with the potential to support destinations and tourism organizations (i.e. departments of natural resources, transportation, small business development, and utilities) working with private enterprises (i.e. not only hotels, attractions, and other tourism businesses but also ancillary industries, such as insurance companies, builders, and developers) could help encourage approaches that increase resilience to climate change within these communities while taking into account local realities. DMOs and other destination leaders can also raise awareness of action required to prepare for high impact events—such as increased risk of severe storms—as part of more comprehensive adaptation approaches. Work of public-private partnerships could also include collaboration between climate change scientists and the tourism sector, something that has been previously encouraged by other tourism researchers (Scott, McBoyle, & Schwartzentruber, 2004). This work, in fact, was only possible because of existing, informal partnerships between academic researchers, local tourism organizations, and businesses. While there are some fundamental barriers to climate change adaptation, such as financial constraints, this study suggests that there also remains a lack of knowledge within the sector about what climate change could really mean for tourism destinations in the future and what options there are for adaptation. The types of information typically presented in future climate scenarios can be challenging for tourism businesses to apply within the context of their strategic planning and decisionmaking. Producing actionable science, or science that meets the needs of tourism businesses, needs to involve industry professionals, particularly in terms of determining relevant variables and timescales and how to present information in a useful way. It would be expected that expanding collaboration between the scientific community and the tourism sector would significantly strengthen the development and implementation of effective climate change management strategies not only in the Great Lakes but more broadly as well. The major contributions of this work for other destinations are twofold. Firstly, the consistency of these findings with what has been found in other tourism destinations provides support for DMOs’ spearheading of the development and adoption of holistic and proactive climate change preparedness measures. Even destinations like the Great Lakes, which may benefit in the short-term from climate change, need to think about what future changes may mean for their tourism businesses and economies. Secondly, the findings of this work can be built on in terms of increasing understanding of how to talk to tourism businesses about climate change and what kinds of scientific information these businesses need to prepare. While not discussed in this paper, supporting work for this study included the development of tourismspecific weather and climate metrics that were used to analyze climate model output and develop summary infographics that were used in the interviews to highlight and explain future climate change projections
Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank all of our local partners and study participants for their many contributions. This research was supported by the Department of Education's Graduate Assistance in Areas of National Need program [grant number 104127], the Purdue University Graduate School, and the Purdue Climate Change Research Center. This is number 1901 in the Purdue Climate Change Research Center publication series. Declarations of interest None. References Alexander, D. (2013). May 24). Ten things on tap: Events and attractions this tourism season in Muskegon area. MLIVE, pp. 1–2. Muskegon, MI. Retrieved from 〈http:// www.mlive.com/news/muskegon/index.ssf/2013/05/ten_things_on_tap_events_and_ a.html〉. Alexander, J. (2013). February 19). The Pure Michigan effect: 3.2 million out‑of‑state visitors, $1 billion economic impact. Bridge Magazine, 1–3. Retrieved from 〈http:// www.mlive.com/business/index.ssf/2013/02/1_billion_economic_impact_that.html〉. Berkhout, F., Hertin, J., & Gann, D. M. (2006). Learning to adapt: Organisational adaptation to climate change impacts. Climatic Change, 78, 135–156. https://doi.org/10. 1007/s10584-006-9089-3. Brouder, P., & Lundmark, L. (2011). Climate change in Northern Sweden: Intra-regional perceptions of vulnerability among winter-oriented tourism businesses. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 19(8), 919–933. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2011. 573073. Clayton, A. (2009). Climate change and tourism: The implications for the Caribbean. Worldwide Hospitality and Tourism Themes, 1(3), 212–230. https://doi.org/10.1108/ 17554210910980576. Coghlan, A., & Prideaux, B. (2009). Welcome to the wet tropics: The importance of weather in reef tourism resilience. Current Issues in Tourism, 12(2), 89–104. https:// doi.org/10.1080/13683500802596367. Cohen, J. (1960). A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 20(1), 37–46. Council of the Great Lakes Region (2017). Great Lakes-St. Lawrence region tourism trends and statistics. Crompton, J. L. (1979). Motivations for pleasure vacation. Annals of Tourism Research, 408–424. https://doi.org/10.1016/0160-7383(79)90004-5. Denstadli, J. M., Jacobsen, J. K. S., & Lohmann, M. (2011). Tourist perceptions of summer weather in Scandinavia. Annals of Tourism Research, 38(3), 920–940. Great Lakes Integrated Sciences + Assessments (2014). Climate change in the Great Lakes Region. Gutro, R. (2005). NASA - What’s the difference between weather and climate? Retrieved 26.10.18, from 〈https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate/climate_ weather.html〉. Indiana Dunes Tourism (2016). Indiana Dunes: Beaches and beyond. Retrieved from 〈http://www.indianadunes.com/〉. Kaján, E., & Saarinen, J. (2013). Tourism, climate change and adaptation: A review. Current Issues in Tourism, 16(2), 167–195. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2013. 774323. Marshall, N. A., Marshall, P. A., Abdulla, A., Rouphael, T., & Ali, A. (2011). Preparing for climate change: Recognising its early impacts through the perceptions of dive tourists and dive operators in the Egyptian Red Sea. Current Issues in Tourism, 14(6), 507–518. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2010.512075. Morrison, C., & Pickering, C. M. (2013). Perceptions of climate change impacts, adaptation and limits to adaption in the Australian Alps: The ski-tourism industry and key stakeholders. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 21(2), 173–191. https://doi.org/10. 1080/09669582.2012.681789. Muskegon County Convention & Visitors Bureau (2016). Muskegon County. Retrieved from 〈http://visitmuskegon.org/〉.
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doi.org/10.3354/cr00774. Scott, D., Hall, C. M., & Gössling, S. (2016). A review of the IPCC Fifth assessment and implications for tourism sector climate resilience and decarbonization. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 24(1), 8–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2015.1062021. Scott, D., McBoyle, G., & Schwartzentruber, M. (2004). Climate change and the distribution of climatic resources for tourism in North America. Climate Research, 27(2), 105–117. Scott, D., Simpson, M. C., & Sim, R. (2012). The vulnerability of Caribbean coastal tourism to scenarios of climate change related sea level rise. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 20(6), 883–898. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2012.699063. United States Census Bureau (2014). American FactFinder: County business patterns. Retrieved from 〈http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml〉. World Travel & Tourism Council (2016a). Economic impact 2016: Annual update summary. London. Retrieved from 〈http://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/ economicimpactresearch/2016documents/economicimpactsummary2016_a4web. pdf〉. World Travel & Tourism Council (2016b). Economic impact 2016: United States. London. Zollo, M., & Winter, S. G. (2002). Deliberate learning and the evolution of dynamic capabilities. Organization Science, 13(3), 339–351.
Pang, S. F. H., McKercher, B., & Prideaux, B. (2013). Climate change and tourism: An overview. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 18(1–2), 4–20. https://doi.org/10. 1080/10941665.2012.688509. Park, J., Seager, T. P., Rao, P. S. C., Convertino, M., & Linkov, I. (2013). Integrating risk and resilience approaches to catastrophe management in engineering systems. Risk Analysis, 33(3), 356–367. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01885.x. Ritchie, B. (2008). Tourism disaster planning and management: From response and recovery to reduction and readiness. Current Issues in Tourism, 11(4), 315–348. https:// doi.org/10.2167/cit-0389.0. Ritchie, B., & Crouch, G. I. (2003). The competitive destination: A sustainable tourism perspective. Cambridge, MA: CABI. Rockport Analytics LLC (2014). 2014 economic impact of tourism in Indiana: Methodology, metrics and evaluation. West Chester, PA. Retrieved from 〈http:// www.visitindianatourism.com/sites/default/files/documents/ IndianaEIS2015DRAFT1-20-2016.pdf〉. Schneider, S. H. (2004). Abrupt non-linear climate change, irreversibility and surprise. Global Environmental Change, 14(3), 245–258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha. 2004.04.008. Scott, D., Gössling, S., & de Freitas, C. R. (2008). Preferred climates for tourism: Case studies from Canada, New Zealand and Sweden. Climate Research, 38, 61–73. https://
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Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Journal of Destination Marketing & Management journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jdmm
Regional Spotlight
Exploring tourism businesses’ adaptive response to climate change in two Great Lakes destination communities
T
⁎
Natalie China, , Jonathon Dayb, Sandra Sydnorb, Linda S. Prokopyc, Keith A. Cherkauera a
Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA School of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA c Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA b
A R T I C LE I N FO
A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Climate change Tourism management Business adaptation Climate change perceptions Barriers to adaptation Qualitative research
Climate change is one of the most significant challenges facing the global tourism sector, and destinations around the world are increasingly coming to terms with changing weather. Within destination systems, tourism businesses have been encouraged to take proactive steps to prepare for climate change, but in many destinations, adaptation has been limited. In this Regional Spotlight, findings from a series of qualitative interviews with representatives from businesses in two Great Lakes destinations are used to highlight some of the major challenges facing the region's tourism sector in terms of climate change. Results support findings of existing research that tourism businesses are strongly aware of how they are impacted by weather and climate. Conversely, though many interviewees were able to discuss how their businesses could be affected by climate change, they showed little concern that it would present new challenges and expressed a belief that it could be beneficial in some cases. Common barriers to proactive climate change action include limited resources, lack of knowledge of options, and a belief that action is unnecessary. The results of this study suggest that future work focused on how to build stronger public-private partnerships between policymakers, destination marketing organizations (DMOs), researchers, and tourism professionals in the Great Lakes, and perhaps other destinations, could help: (1) build awareness of potential novel or nonlinear impacts of climate change among tourism professionals, and (2) increase the availability of scientific information that meets their decision-making needs; subsequently, also leading to more effective destination-based climate change management strategies.
1. Introduction—The challenge of climate change for destinations The hospitality and tourism industry, which contributed over US$7 trillion to the global economy and nearly US$1.5 billion to the US economy in 2015, is an economic sector that could be especially impacted by climate change (World Travel & Tourism Council, 2016a, 2016b). Recent findings in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), as summarized by Scott, Hall, and Gössling (2016) p.22, suggest that ‘all tourism destinations will need to adapt to climate change’. While there has been some preliminary work on especially vulnerable destinations, such as small island states (Clayton, 2009; Scott, Simpson, & Sim, 2012), many destinations are yet to come to terms with the potential impacts of climate change and the actions required to respond. Weather impacts the tourism system and, in particular, destinations in a variety of ways. In this context, weather refers to short-term atmospheric conditions (from a few days to up to a season), and climate
⁎
refers to average weather conditions over the long-term, generally on the order of several decades (Gutro, 2005). Tourism is closely linked to weather because of its importance to tourists when planning vacations and other leisure travel (Crompton, 1979; Pang, McKercher, & Prideaux, 2013; Ritchie & Crouch, 2003). Favorable weather can be a motivator for travel and a major destination asset, while unfavorable weather can discourage travel to a given destination or negatively impact the travel experience (Coghlan & Prideaux, 2009; Ritchie & Crouch, 2003). Similarly, climate shapes tourists’ expectations for a destination as far as its weather and can, to some extent, affect their overall satisfaction with a travel experience if these expectations are not met (Denstadli, Jacobsen, & Lohmann, 2011). Much of the existing research examining the potential impacts of climate change on the hospitality and tourism sector has focused on understanding tourists’ preferences when it comes to weather and climate and how these preferences could affect travel to destinations affected by climate change in the future (Kaján & Saarinen, 2013; Scott, Gössling, & de Freitas, 2008).
Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (N. Chin).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2018.12.009 Received 12 March 2018; Received in revised form 14 December 2018; Accepted 31 December 2018 Available online 09 January 2019 2212-571X/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Journal of Destination Marketing & Management 12 (2019) 125–129
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summer, though winter recreation is also popular in both locations. In addition, both locations are located along the Lake Michigan coastline. Interviewees were purposively sampled from a list of potential businesses provided by local place-based experts well-versed in tourism and who hold key leadership positions in local tourism organizations (e.g. the director of the convention and visitor bureau). The main goals of interviewee selection were to include individuals who represent a mix of business types and can provide broad perspectives of the tourism sector in each community, i.e. a mix of hotels, restaurants, local attractions, events, national or state parks, and, in the case of Muskegon, boat cruises. The events included in this study were classified as businesses as they exist as their own entities or organizations, engage in long-term planning (generally several years in advance), and serve important roles in their local tourism sectors by bringing in visitors and economic revenue. The characteristics of the groups of businesses were generally consistent across the two communities (Table 2). All of the interviews were conducted by the primary author and recorded. The length of the interviews ranged in length from 10 to 60 min, on average taking 30 min. Interview data was transcribed verbatim by the primary author and one research assistant. A codebook was developed by three members of the research team; checked for intercoder reliability using the Kappa coefficient (0.79) (Cohen, 1960); and used by the primary author to code all of the interviews in NVivo 11.
Destination systems must consider not only changes in demand but also how tourism businesses might respond to climate change. There is broad acknowledgment of the risks faced by tourism businesses from climate change; however, an awareness of the importance of weather and climate to tourism businesses does not necessarily translate to awareness of climate change or a belief in the need to adapt (Kaján & Saarinen, 2013). Research in other sectors has shown that businesses may need to adapt a variety of practices including their basic routines, their supply chains, and their target customer bases with changes likely being made incrementally when businesses face new situations (Berkhout, Hertin, & Gann, 2006; Zollo & Winter, 2002). On the other hand, changes in extreme weather events may require a more proactive approach to ensure business resilience (Brouder & Lundmark, 2011; Ritchie, 2008). Regardless, coordinated action to develop holistic and proactive climate change adaptation approaches for the tourism sector as a whole will likely require broader networks and partnerships, including at the destination level (Marshall, Marshall, Abdulla, Rouphael, & Ali, 2011; Morrison & Pickering, 2013). Given the plethora of meanings and interpretations of climate change science, this work utilizes qualitative analysis based on a new framework, the sense, anticipate, adapt, learn (SAAL) framework, to explore tourism managers’ awareness and understanding and answer questions in a methodical way. The SAAL framework describes one process through which resilient complex systems prepare for and recover from disruptive events (Park, Seager, Rao, Convertino, & Linkov, 2013). Within this context, ‘sense’ describes the ability to monitor stresses; ‘anticipate’ is the ability to foresee potential crises and disasters; ‘adapt’ is the ability to act on information that is sensed and anticipated to prevent failure; and ‘learn’ is the ability to take knowledge from the past and apply it to the future (Park et al., 2013). For this project, the primary aim was to use different aspects of the SAAL framework to understand business owners’ perceptions of the need to adapt and the complexities facing climate change adaptation, with the ultimate goal being to promote better strategies for climate change adaptation in the tourism sector. Specifically, this study addresses the following research questions:
3. Perceptions of climate change in Great Lake destinations In general, the interviewees in this study indicated that weather and climate affect their businesses—in many cases significantly and in multiple aspects of the business, including customer numbers, customer safety, business operations, profits, and employee hiring. Some of the types of weather and climate commonly named as having an impact were rain, severe storms, and unseasonably high or low temperatures, with the timing of weather events having some effect on the magnitude of the impact. It is expected that this would be true throughout the Great Lakes region given the general importance of weather and climate to the tourism sector. Study findings also indicate that certain types of businesses may be more resilient to the effects of weather than others; e.g. the national and state parks included in the study seemed more highly impacted by weather than restaurants. In addition, the different businesses are affected differently by certain types of weather: e.g. extreme heat in the summer can push more people to engage in beach and outdoor water recreation, hurting businesses that are reliant on indoor or other nonwater related outdoor activities. Subsequently, this suggests that climate change could create a competitive advantage for some businesses over others within and between different destinations. When asked about climate change specifically, most interviewees in this study did not expect any novel or significant impacts on their businesses. Similar to current perceptions of weather and climate, future climate change was seen most often as having the potential to affect customers, such as customer numbers and safety, and operations, such as operating costs and operating season. Other potential impacts included impacts on employees, such as their availability and safety, and business inventory or offerings. These results show that, while it is true that overall trends in average weather and climate may end up being positive for Great Lakes tourism businesses, the potential for nonlinear effects, i.e. low probability/high impact events, need to be incorporated into larger discussions around tourism and climate change (Schneider, 2004). In addition, the novel ways that tourism businesses could be affected by climate change need to be better communicated to tourism business owners and operators. Previous work has shown that tourism stakeholders may be ‘overestimating their ability to adapt’ to more extreme potential future projections of climate change (Scott et al., 2016, p. 22). The impacts of climate change were expected to be mixed by about
1. How do tourism businesses perceive that they are impacted by climate and weather? 2. How do tourism businesses perceive that they could be impacted by climate change? 3. How are tourism businesses preparing for future weather and climate? 4. What are the barriers to climate change adaptation? 2. Study locations and methodology This Regional Spotlight is focused on two destination communities in North America's Laurentian Great Lakes, the Indiana Dunes in Indiana and Muskegon, Michigan, as tourism is a key part of the region's economy. The industry supplies 10% of the region's 51 million jobs, as well as billions of dollars to its economy (Council of the Great Lakes Region, 2017). Much of the region's tourism activities are dependent on weather and climate; e.g. beachgoing, boating, birding, skiing, snowmobiling, ice fishing, and camping are all popular activities. Subsequently, climate change, which is projected to lead to increased temperatures, increased total precipitation, decreased snow and ice cover, and more intense and frequent extreme weather events (e.g. storms and droughts) in the Great Lakes, could have significant impacts on the region's tourism sector (Great Lakes Integrated Sciences + Assessments, 2014). The two communities in this study were selected because their tourism industries are important to their state economies, are of a similar size, and are comprised of a number of small and medium sized businesses (Table 1). These two communities also provide similar outdoor recreational opportunities and have peak operating seasons in the 126
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Table 1 Summary of case study community characteristics related to tourism. Indiana Dunes, IN (Porter County) Importance of destination to state economy Size of tourism sectorc Types of tourist activities Peak tourism season a b c d e
Second in Indiana for tourism spending
Muskegon, MI (Muskegon County) a
10th in Michigan for tourism revenueb
~320 accommodations and food services businesses Iconic and new attractions; beach recreation; bird-watching; outdoor recreationd Memorial Day - Labor Day
~340 accommodations and food services businesses Outdoor recreation; water recreation; water parks; ship displays; museums; summer festivalse Memorial Day - Labor Day
(Rockport Analytics LLC, 2014). (Alexander, 2013). (United States Census Bureau, 2014). (Indiana Dunes Tourism, 2016). (Alexander, 2013; Muskegon County Convention & Visitors Bureau, 2016).
Table 2 Summary of business characteristics for each case study community. Indiana Dunes Business Type
Length of Operation (in Years)
Peak Operating Seasona
Perceived Reliance on Nature-Based Tourism
Event: 1 Hotel: 2 Local Attraction: 5 National/State Park: 2 Restaurant/Food Truck: 2
Less than 3: 1 3–5: 1 6–10: 0 11–20: 3 More than 20: 7
Spring Shoulder: 5 Summer: 11 Fall Shoulder: 4 Winter: 0
High: 4 Medium: 6 Low: 1 Not Sure: 1
Business Type
Length of Operation (in Years)
Peak Operating Seasona
Perceived Reliance on Nature-Based Tourism
Boat Cruises: 2 Event: 2 Hotel: 1 Local Attraction: 1 National/State Park: 2 Restaurant/Food Truck: 3
Less than 3: 1 3–5: 3 6–10: 0 11–20: 3 More than 20: 4
Spring Shoulder: 2 Summer: 9 Fall Shoulder: 0 Winter: 2
High: 4 Medium: 6 Low: 1 Not Sure: 0
Muskegon
a
May exceed total number of businesses, since peak operating season can include multiple seasons.
outdoor events. However, taking action faces multiple barriers, ranging from limited resources, particularly financial, to inflexibility in terms of location and scheduling to a lack of knowledge of adaptation options. There also seemed to be an underlying attitude, even with interviewees who said that they believe in climate change, that adaptation is not necessary, most often because it is believed that the impacts of climate change will be insignificant or slow to develop or that being flexible is the best strategy for dealing with weather unpredictability. These reactions to climate change were not unexpected based on findings of previous research, and they demonstrate the continued difficulty of encouraging proactive behavior to prepare for climate change at the business level; however, they also indicate that there may still be a gap in knowledge of climate change adaptation options at the destination level. Additionally, another barrier that was not directly mentioned by interviewees but implied by the fact that only half of them engage in strategic planning at least 3–5 years into the future and only three of them have included weather in those discussions is that many tourism businesses do not operate based on timeframes under which climate change will be most salient, an important point for analysts and researchers who are developing climate change information for the tourism sector. A lack of local, state or national government efforts to prepare for climate change was also identified by two interviewees as being a potential barrier to future adaptation, suggesting that there is a role for local governments and larger tourism organizations to play in business preparedness and adaptation.
half of the interviewees in this study, i.e. they believed that climate change could generate profits by lengthening the shoulder seasons while also potentially generating costs, such as those due to damage from increased storm frequency and severity. One of the key aspects of developing and implementing effective strategies for dealing with climate change will be to consider how to capitalize on potential benefits while minimizing potential costs from the perspectives of individual businesses. For some businesses, the costs of climate change may be noticeably higher, e.g. those focused on winter tourism and recreation, which presents greater challenges and may require more costly or creative solutions. Despite a broad awareness of the importance of weather and climate and the acknowledgement that climate change could affect their businesses, very few interviewees in this study said that they were currently doing anything to prepare for or adapt to the potential impacts of climate change. There were three cases where climate change adaptation was actively occurring, in response to (1) perceived shifts in the seasons, (2) shortening winters, and (3) changing conditions in Lake Michigan. More often, specific businesses were adapting to past experiences with weather. Some of the strategies currently being used by interviewees to deal with unfavorable weather and climate include ensuring that emergency procedures are in place and diversifying offerings, e.g. adding snowshoes to winter offerings to deal with less consistent winters. Interviewees proposed some additional strategies for adapting to future climate change, including making operational changes, i.e. expanding the length of a restaurant's patio season to take advantage of a longer shoulder season, relying more on indoor offerings and spaces, or making changes to equipment, e.g. getting larger or heated tents for 127
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4. Implications for destination management
for each community. Feedback on this work demonstrates that in communities like the two included in this study, where climate change impacts may not be as acute, stakeholder engagement and science communication strategies can highlight adaptation approaches that capitalize on opportunities provided by expanding shoulder seasons, for example, and encourage preparation for extreme wind events and storms. The development of salient scientific information and effective climate change adaptation strategies cannot, however, be done without this type of in-depth stakeholder input. It is hoped that future work will expand the scope of this study to other destinations and use these findings to develop better climate change science for a broader group of stakeholders in the tourism sector.
While the findings of this work are not generalizable beyond these two locations, the insights gained through this process have relevance to the two Great Lakes destinations in this study and to other tourism destination communities, as well. The lack of conceptualization of novel or significant impacts from climate change by the tourism professionals in this study highlights the commonly noted challenge of encouraging proactive adaptive behavior when it comes to climate change. Given the lack of awareness of potential issues and expectations of only low impact changes, it is rational for the individuals in this study to expect to need to take only incremental or minor actions to adapt, such as those that can be included in ongoing capital improvement. In addition, some of the short-term benefits of climate change for these two communities will be positive. The lack of incentives and motivation to change from ‘business as usual,’ as shown in the results of this work, suggest that public-private partnerships could help climate change adaptation efforts in the Great Lakes tourism sector, if these perceptions are, in fact, widespread. Destination marketing organizations (DMOs) and other government departments with the potential to support destinations and tourism organizations (i.e. departments of natural resources, transportation, small business development, and utilities) working with private enterprises (i.e. not only hotels, attractions, and other tourism businesses but also ancillary industries, such as insurance companies, builders, and developers) could help encourage approaches that increase resilience to climate change within these communities while taking into account local realities. DMOs and other destination leaders can also raise awareness of action required to prepare for high impact events—such as increased risk of severe storms—as part of more comprehensive adaptation approaches. Work of public-private partnerships could also include collaboration between climate change scientists and the tourism sector, something that has been previously encouraged by other tourism researchers (Scott, McBoyle, & Schwartzentruber, 2004). This work, in fact, was only possible because of existing, informal partnerships between academic researchers, local tourism organizations, and businesses. While there are some fundamental barriers to climate change adaptation, such as financial constraints, this study suggests that there also remains a lack of knowledge within the sector about what climate change could really mean for tourism destinations in the future and what options there are for adaptation. The types of information typically presented in future climate scenarios can be challenging for tourism businesses to apply within the context of their strategic planning and decisionmaking. Producing actionable science, or science that meets the needs of tourism businesses, needs to involve industry professionals, particularly in terms of determining relevant variables and timescales and how to present information in a useful way. It would be expected that expanding collaboration between the scientific community and the tourism sector would significantly strengthen the development and implementation of effective climate change management strategies not only in the Great Lakes but more broadly as well. The major contributions of this work for other destinations are twofold. Firstly, the consistency of these findings with what has been found in other tourism destinations provides support for DMOs’ spearheading of the development and adoption of holistic and proactive climate change preparedness measures. Even destinations like the Great Lakes, which may benefit in the short-term from climate change, need to think about what future changes may mean for their tourism businesses and economies. Secondly, the findings of this work can be built on in terms of increasing understanding of how to talk to tourism businesses about climate change and what kinds of scientific information these businesses need to prepare. While not discussed in this paper, supporting work for this study included the development of tourismspecific weather and climate metrics that were used to analyze climate model output and develop summary infographics that were used in the interviews to highlight and explain future climate change projections
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