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Food grain procurement and consumption in China
Book reviews
matched by the difficulty of doing so. In his lengthy synthesis, he incorporates awareness of bureaucratic functions in a general perspective on public policy practices and outcomes. The chapter draws out the major themes of the book, stressing inconsistencies between formal conceptions and actual practice in public policy. His analysis is set in an imperfect - and hence, realistic - policy arena. In the process of considering how choices are made and opportunities are missed, Schaffer restates lessons that should be familiar to policy analysts, but are often ignored. Politics is important. Decoupling implementation from policy choice cuts the link between decision makers and thereby creating power outcomes, without accountability. Personal interests of bureaucrats are often inconsistent with measures to assist the disadvantaged. But this scepticism about policy practice is not simplistic bureaucrat-bashing. The point of Schaffer’s exploration is to explain what public policy does, ‘and then see if that explanation can itself be an instrument for change and improvement, through its own revelations and expositions’.
Implications
for action?
Schaffer’s conclusions stand out among the abundance of controversial claims in this important chapter. In his opinion, imperfections in the world and especially flaws in policy practice - eliminate the possibility of ‘optimal’ policies. Furthermore, since no policy can be optimal, all policies should be subject to contention. From this and other lines of argument, he concludes that policy choice can be opened up to debate if policy makers become responsible and if they cultivate self awareness. Neither the importance of these keys to ‘room for manoeuvre’ nor the desirability of a cure for irresponsibility and unconsciousness are open to dispute. Yet the conclusions are vulnerable to a criticism made throughout the book: they are pronouncements made without attention to implementation. Although Schaffer claims to reject utopian solutions, he gives almost no attention to
FOOD POLICY
November
1985
means of creating enlightened policy protagonists. Any contribution on this would be welcome; for now most policy analysis will have to proceed as if none will be forthcoming. This book could have its intended effect it the right people read it. Yet readers are likely to differ in their assessment, especially of Schaffer’s capstone chapter. This is partly due to the difficulty of drawing meaningful generalizations from particular cases, partly due to Schaffer’s difficult style, but mainly because the implications for action are not clear. His sceptical view of conventional policy practice may lead experienced readers to perceive alternatives. But a cynical assessment is equally reasonable if all hope is placed in responsibility and awareness. Many of the case studies
and Apthorpe’s insights can stand on individual merit, but the contribution of Schaffer’s synthesis seems limited to those anxious for a view of ‘how to think about it’; it offers little for those who also need clues on ‘how to do it’. Thomas P. Tomich Harvard Institute for International Development Harvard University Cambridge, MA, USA Bernard Schaffer died in London whilst this book was in press. He was a Fellow of the Institute of Development Studies, and Professional Fellow at the University of Sussex. He worked in Australia and the South Pacific, Eastern and Central Africa, Bangladesh and the UK Treasury. He was general consultant to the Royal Commission on Australian Government Administration in 1974-75.
China’s great leap sideways FOOD GRAIN PROCUREMENT CONSUMPTION IN CHINA by Kenneth
AND
FL Walker
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1984, 329 pp, f25.00, US $49.95 In the early 1950s the Chinese government established a system of procuring, redistributing and rationing grain which sought to control the overall growth of demand, to supply the cities and to reduce inequalities in rural per capita grain availability. As Professor Walker shows, its overzealous and faulty application during the Great Leap Forward (1958-60) and in 1961 was one of the mismanagement factors which greatly exascerbated the effects of natural disasters in producing the crisis which saw annual grain production fall from 163 million tons in 1952-54 and 186 million tons in 1955-57 to 150 million in 196&62. Further, as will be seen below, the procurement system sometimes accentuated shortages in the less well-fed areas. However, it had been successful in the mid-1950s. Taking a longer view, the trend in per capita supplies from
grains and other domestically produced foods is unlikely to have been higher, and from livestock products substantially less, in 197479 than in 1931-37. At the same time hunger was much reduced (although probably not totally eliminated) between the two periods. Apart from some net import of grains for the coastal cities, this improvement was due entirely to the procurement system. Professor Walker’s overwhelming concern is to describe and assess the impact of the state distribution of grain, not only nationally but also between and within provinces. Consideration of other instruments of policy is generally peripheral to this focus, with some exception for the Great Leap Forward and its immediate aftermath. Faced with the statistical blackout of 1962-76, he concentrates on the early years of reasonable success (1953-57) and on 1958-62, with the confusions and mistakes of the Great Leap Forward and the follow-up ‘draining the pond to catch the fish’ (net procurement at 28% of the total output of grains in 1959160 and 19601 61 compared with 15.3% in 1953-57), abandoned in favour of large net imports of grain in 1961 and 1962. The
381
Book reviews/Publications
period 1978-80 is reviewed much more briefly but in sufficient depth to support important comparisons with 1953-57, particularly on the scale and distributional effects of procurement. The analysis required a formidable assembly and assessment of local, provincial and national statistical information. The 63 tables and eight figures of the main text (most carrying substantial detail) and the large appendix, setting out Professor Walker’s building of his statistical base, provide the foundations of a highly numerate analysis; a major scholarly contribution to our understanding of Chinese agricultural and food policies before the reforms of the last six years. The most interesting part is the review of general policy and decisions in 1958-62, followed by four elements in the analysis of procurement and distribution: government’s general success in reducing provincial ine-
qualities in grain production and consumption in 1953-57 (summarized in Table 33 and Figure 4); the effects of procurement in lowering peasant per capita consumption in some of the poorer provinces, not only in the Great Leap Forward of 195%60 and its aftermath but even in 1953-57 (the discussion surrounding Tables 25 and 49); the recurring theme of peasant resistance to procurement, particularly in Szechuan; and, the limitations on the scale of intervention ultimately set by the need to maintain peasant goodwill and incentive, brought out particularly by the comparison between 1953-57 and 1978-80 in Table 73 which shows per capita net procurement virtually the same in each period. Professor Walker concludes by noting the greater reliance on financial incentives for peasants since 1976 and the easing of procurement. He raises doubt over the balance in the new
mixture
of policies:
‘It seems likely that the growth of private sector grain production will create further difficulties for the Government in the realm of consumption and production . It seems inevitable that the physical rationing, state procurement and central distribution of grain will form the basis of food policy in future’ (p 198, reviewer’s emphasis). How far after the crease in tion from that there this most
do these conclusions stand average annual 6.1% inChinese agriculture produc1980 to 1984?’ One hopes will soon be a postscript to stimulating book. George Allen Newton Tracey Barnstaple Devon, UK
‘Calculated from USDA, WorldAgriculture: Outlook and Situation, March 1985.
Publications Abandon
Affluence! by F.E. Trainer (Zed Books, 57 Caledonian Road, London Nl 9BU, 1985, 308 pp) After examining recent evidence on major global problems (eg environmental destruction, Third World underdevelopment), the author argues that our commitment to growth and affluence is magnifying all these problems. Our economy is such that the production of luxury goods is encouraged while the needs of the poor are ignored. An alternative society is outlined that could provide a high quality of life despite low per capita resource rates.
Advances in Cereal Science und Technology: Volume VII edited by Y. Pomeranz
(American Association of Cereal Chemists, 3340 Pilot Knob Road, St Paul, MN 55121, USA, 1985, 359 pp, $49 member, $60 non-member) Africa in Crisis: the Causes, the Cures of Environmental Bankruptcy by Llovd Tim-
berlake (Earthscan, i Endsleigh- Street, London WClH ODD. 1985.232 DO.f3.95) Analyses the causes ‘of Airica’s’ ‘firnines: showing how misplaced priorities have turned droughts into major disasters. Declining food crop yields, high interest rates, and rapid population growth have combined to throw the continent into turmoil. Expanding cash crops are grown at the expense of food crops (which are forced onto poorer land), with desertification and low yields as the result. He believes that
382
small-scale village-level aid can help, and shows how environmental accounts can be balanced. Africa’s
Shared Water Resources by Bonaya Adhi Godana (Frances Pinter, London, 1985, 370 pp, f20) A general approach to the law of international watercourses is combined with indepth case studies of the three main African rivers - the Nile, the Niger and the Senegal. Agricultural
Development
and
Nutrition
edited by Arnold Pacey and Philip Payne (Hutch&on, London, i985,255 pi, f5.95) This work has been sunported bv FAO and UNICEF as part of tLe’ir joint concern for cooperation between workers in the fields of nutrition and agriculture. Recent South Asian material is used to analyse social, political and environmental causes of malnutrition, and they are put in the context of agricultural development. Agricultural Insurance: a New Policy for Developing Countries by Syed M. Ahsan
(Gower, Aldershot, UK, 1985, 262 pp. f18.50) Several questions are under consideration in this book: What type of a crop insurance programme would be suitable for application in a developing country? Would the scheme allow farmers enough incentives in raising agricultural productivity? How adequate should the compensation be in the event of a crop loss?
Agricultural Mechanization: a Comparative Historical Perspective by Hans P. Binswan-
ger (World Bank Staff Working Papers No 673, The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA, 1984, 80 pp) Agricultural Trade and Food Policy: the Experience of Five Developing Countries
by Malcolm D. Bale (World Bank Staff Working Papers No 724, World Bank, Washington, DC, 20433, 1985, 40 pp, f6.50, $5.00) The experience of Colombia, Jamaica, Nigeria, Pakistan and the Philippines are profiled. Agriculture under the Common Agriculture Policy by I.R. Bowler (Manchester Uni-
versity Press, Manchester, pp, 09.50)
UK, 1985, 255
Aid Is Not Enough: Britain and the World’s Poor (a report from the Independent
Group on British Aid. Oxfam. 274 Banbury koad, Oxford OX2 7D2, UK, 1984, 59 pp, fl.20) What should and could the British Government do to help lessen the crushing burden of poverty? This report argues a course of action. An Unnatural Disaster: Drought in North East Brazil (Oxfam Public Affairs Unit,
274 Banbury Road, 1984, 16 pp, &I)
FOOD POLICY
Oxford
OX2 7D2,
November
1985
matched by the difficulty of doing so. In his lengthy synthesis, he incorporates awareness of bureaucratic functions in a general perspective on public policy practices and outcomes. The chapter draws out the major themes of the book, stressing inconsistencies between formal conceptions and actual practice in public policy. His analysis is set in an imperfect - and hence, realistic - policy arena. In the process of considering how choices are made and opportunities are missed, Schaffer restates lessons that should be familiar to policy analysts, but are often ignored. Politics is important. Decoupling implementation from policy choice cuts the link between decision makers and thereby creating power outcomes, without accountability. Personal interests of bureaucrats are often inconsistent with measures to assist the disadvantaged. But this scepticism about policy practice is not simplistic bureaucrat-bashing. The point of Schaffer’s exploration is to explain what public policy does, ‘and then see if that explanation can itself be an instrument for change and improvement, through its own revelations and expositions’.
Implications
for action?
Schaffer’s conclusions stand out among the abundance of controversial claims in this important chapter. In his opinion, imperfections in the world and especially flaws in policy practice - eliminate the possibility of ‘optimal’ policies. Furthermore, since no policy can be optimal, all policies should be subject to contention. From this and other lines of argument, he concludes that policy choice can be opened up to debate if policy makers become responsible and if they cultivate self awareness. Neither the importance of these keys to ‘room for manoeuvre’ nor the desirability of a cure for irresponsibility and unconsciousness are open to dispute. Yet the conclusions are vulnerable to a criticism made throughout the book: they are pronouncements made without attention to implementation. Although Schaffer claims to reject utopian solutions, he gives almost no attention to
FOOD POLICY
November
1985
means of creating enlightened policy protagonists. Any contribution on this would be welcome; for now most policy analysis will have to proceed as if none will be forthcoming. This book could have its intended effect it the right people read it. Yet readers are likely to differ in their assessment, especially of Schaffer’s capstone chapter. This is partly due to the difficulty of drawing meaningful generalizations from particular cases, partly due to Schaffer’s difficult style, but mainly because the implications for action are not clear. His sceptical view of conventional policy practice may lead experienced readers to perceive alternatives. But a cynical assessment is equally reasonable if all hope is placed in responsibility and awareness. Many of the case studies
and Apthorpe’s insights can stand on individual merit, but the contribution of Schaffer’s synthesis seems limited to those anxious for a view of ‘how to think about it’; it offers little for those who also need clues on ‘how to do it’. Thomas P. Tomich Harvard Institute for International Development Harvard University Cambridge, MA, USA Bernard Schaffer died in London whilst this book was in press. He was a Fellow of the Institute of Development Studies, and Professional Fellow at the University of Sussex. He worked in Australia and the South Pacific, Eastern and Central Africa, Bangladesh and the UK Treasury. He was general consultant to the Royal Commission on Australian Government Administration in 1974-75.
China’s great leap sideways FOOD GRAIN PROCUREMENT CONSUMPTION IN CHINA by Kenneth
AND
FL Walker
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1984, 329 pp, f25.00, US $49.95 In the early 1950s the Chinese government established a system of procuring, redistributing and rationing grain which sought to control the overall growth of demand, to supply the cities and to reduce inequalities in rural per capita grain availability. As Professor Walker shows, its overzealous and faulty application during the Great Leap Forward (1958-60) and in 1961 was one of the mismanagement factors which greatly exascerbated the effects of natural disasters in producing the crisis which saw annual grain production fall from 163 million tons in 1952-54 and 186 million tons in 1955-57 to 150 million in 196&62. Further, as will be seen below, the procurement system sometimes accentuated shortages in the less well-fed areas. However, it had been successful in the mid-1950s. Taking a longer view, the trend in per capita supplies from
grains and other domestically produced foods is unlikely to have been higher, and from livestock products substantially less, in 197479 than in 1931-37. At the same time hunger was much reduced (although probably not totally eliminated) between the two periods. Apart from some net import of grains for the coastal cities, this improvement was due entirely to the procurement system. Professor Walker’s overwhelming concern is to describe and assess the impact of the state distribution of grain, not only nationally but also between and within provinces. Consideration of other instruments of policy is generally peripheral to this focus, with some exception for the Great Leap Forward and its immediate aftermath. Faced with the statistical blackout of 1962-76, he concentrates on the early years of reasonable success (1953-57) and on 1958-62, with the confusions and mistakes of the Great Leap Forward and the follow-up ‘draining the pond to catch the fish’ (net procurement at 28% of the total output of grains in 1959160 and 19601 61 compared with 15.3% in 1953-57), abandoned in favour of large net imports of grain in 1961 and 1962. The
381
Book reviews/Publications
period 1978-80 is reviewed much more briefly but in sufficient depth to support important comparisons with 1953-57, particularly on the scale and distributional effects of procurement. The analysis required a formidable assembly and assessment of local, provincial and national statistical information. The 63 tables and eight figures of the main text (most carrying substantial detail) and the large appendix, setting out Professor Walker’s building of his statistical base, provide the foundations of a highly numerate analysis; a major scholarly contribution to our understanding of Chinese agricultural and food policies before the reforms of the last six years. The most interesting part is the review of general policy and decisions in 1958-62, followed by four elements in the analysis of procurement and distribution: government’s general success in reducing provincial ine-
qualities in grain production and consumption in 1953-57 (summarized in Table 33 and Figure 4); the effects of procurement in lowering peasant per capita consumption in some of the poorer provinces, not only in the Great Leap Forward of 195%60 and its aftermath but even in 1953-57 (the discussion surrounding Tables 25 and 49); the recurring theme of peasant resistance to procurement, particularly in Szechuan; and, the limitations on the scale of intervention ultimately set by the need to maintain peasant goodwill and incentive, brought out particularly by the comparison between 1953-57 and 1978-80 in Table 73 which shows per capita net procurement virtually the same in each period. Professor Walker concludes by noting the greater reliance on financial incentives for peasants since 1976 and the easing of procurement. He raises doubt over the balance in the new
mixture
of policies:
‘It seems likely that the growth of private sector grain production will create further difficulties for the Government in the realm of consumption and production . It seems inevitable that the physical rationing, state procurement and central distribution of grain will form the basis of food policy in future’ (p 198, reviewer’s emphasis). How far after the crease in tion from that there this most
do these conclusions stand average annual 6.1% inChinese agriculture produc1980 to 1984?’ One hopes will soon be a postscript to stimulating book. George Allen Newton Tracey Barnstaple Devon, UK
‘Calculated from USDA, WorldAgriculture: Outlook and Situation, March 1985.
Publications Abandon
Affluence! by F.E. Trainer (Zed Books, 57 Caledonian Road, London Nl 9BU, 1985, 308 pp) After examining recent evidence on major global problems (eg environmental destruction, Third World underdevelopment), the author argues that our commitment to growth and affluence is magnifying all these problems. Our economy is such that the production of luxury goods is encouraged while the needs of the poor are ignored. An alternative society is outlined that could provide a high quality of life despite low per capita resource rates.
Advances in Cereal Science und Technology: Volume VII edited by Y. Pomeranz
(American Association of Cereal Chemists, 3340 Pilot Knob Road, St Paul, MN 55121, USA, 1985, 359 pp, $49 member, $60 non-member) Africa in Crisis: the Causes, the Cures of Environmental Bankruptcy by Llovd Tim-
berlake (Earthscan, i Endsleigh- Street, London WClH ODD. 1985.232 DO.f3.95) Analyses the causes ‘of Airica’s’ ‘firnines: showing how misplaced priorities have turned droughts into major disasters. Declining food crop yields, high interest rates, and rapid population growth have combined to throw the continent into turmoil. Expanding cash crops are grown at the expense of food crops (which are forced onto poorer land), with desertification and low yields as the result. He believes that
382
small-scale village-level aid can help, and shows how environmental accounts can be balanced. Africa’s
Shared Water Resources by Bonaya Adhi Godana (Frances Pinter, London, 1985, 370 pp, f20) A general approach to the law of international watercourses is combined with indepth case studies of the three main African rivers - the Nile, the Niger and the Senegal. Agricultural
Development
and
Nutrition
edited by Arnold Pacey and Philip Payne (Hutch&on, London, i985,255 pi, f5.95) This work has been sunported bv FAO and UNICEF as part of tLe’ir joint concern for cooperation between workers in the fields of nutrition and agriculture. Recent South Asian material is used to analyse social, political and environmental causes of malnutrition, and they are put in the context of agricultural development. Agricultural Insurance: a New Policy for Developing Countries by Syed M. Ahsan
(Gower, Aldershot, UK, 1985, 262 pp. f18.50) Several questions are under consideration in this book: What type of a crop insurance programme would be suitable for application in a developing country? Would the scheme allow farmers enough incentives in raising agricultural productivity? How adequate should the compensation be in the event of a crop loss?
Agricultural Mechanization: a Comparative Historical Perspective by Hans P. Binswan-
ger (World Bank Staff Working Papers No 673, The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA, 1984, 80 pp) Agricultural Trade and Food Policy: the Experience of Five Developing Countries
by Malcolm D. Bale (World Bank Staff Working Papers No 724, World Bank, Washington, DC, 20433, 1985, 40 pp, f6.50, $5.00) The experience of Colombia, Jamaica, Nigeria, Pakistan and the Philippines are profiled. Agriculture under the Common Agriculture Policy by I.R. Bowler (Manchester Uni-
versity Press, Manchester, pp, 09.50)
UK, 1985, 255
Aid Is Not Enough: Britain and the World’s Poor (a report from the Independent
Group on British Aid. Oxfam. 274 Banbury koad, Oxford OX2 7D2, UK, 1984, 59 pp, fl.20) What should and could the British Government do to help lessen the crushing burden of poverty? This report argues a course of action. An Unnatural Disaster: Drought in North East Brazil (Oxfam Public Affairs Unit,
274 Banbury Road, 1984, 16 pp, &I)
FOOD POLICY
Oxford
OX2 7D2,
November
1985