Foot-And-Mouth Disease and International Development

ADVANCES IN VIRUS RESEARCH, VOL. 53

FOOT-AND-MOUTHDISEASE AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Mark M. Rweyemamu* and Yves Leforbant Animol Health Service

Food and Agriculture of the United Notions

Rome, ltoly Introduction Global Distribution of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Economic and Food Security Impact of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Key Prerequisites for National and Regional Foot-and-Mouth Disease Eradication A. Local Epidemiology and Laboratory Support B. Economic Analyses and Planning C. Farming Community Involvement D. National or Regional Authority E. Veterinary Services V. European Experience for Coordination of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Regional Eradication VI. Future International Trends References

I. 11. 111. IV.

I. INTRODUCTION Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is the most important constraint to international trade in animals and animal products. It especially restricts world trade in a south-to-north direction. The endemically or sporadically infected countries-which are located mainly in the south-generally face total embargoes on the export of their live animals and fresh meat to the FMD-free countries in the north. When endemically or sporadically infected countries have managed to gain acceptance for some of their products, they have done so by agreeing to incorporate expensive safeguards such as the deboning of carcasses. In addition to causing trade restrictions, FMD severely reduces the productivity of the meat and milk industries in the endemically and sporadically infected countries. Further costs of FMD result from the policing of borders by FMDfree countries and the costs of tests and quarantine for imported live * Infectious Diseases-EMPRES Group. t FA0 European Commission for the Control of FMD. 111

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animals. Worldwide FMD vaccine is most significant in terms of volume and cost. The number of doses produced per year is on the order of 800-1000 million, with commercial vaccine being sold for between US$0.20 and US$l.OO per dose. The eradication of FMD is feasible at both the national and regional, i.e., the international levels, and examples of both can be provided. At the national level, countries that have completed eradication programs during recent times include Indonesia, Chile, and Uruguay. Examples of regional successes are the campaigns in Western and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, and in South America the Hemispheric Eradication Program has already freed the southernmost part of the subcontinent from FMD with or without vaccination. The 1996 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Expert Consultation (1)on transboundary animal diseases concluded that although global eradication of FMD was not a realistic short-term objective, international efforts should be made to promote the progressive control of this disease on a regional basis.

11. GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE The worldwide epidemiology of FMD is almost a mirror image of the global economic structure. The division is as follows: 1. FMD-free group: This is equivalent t o the high-income, industrialized zone, i.e., mainly the countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). 2. FMD control regions: These are equivalent to the middle-income, semi-industrialized countries characterized by medium to high FMD control activity, either actual or planned. South America is the most prominent of these regions. FMD control is prominent on the agenda of the regional OIE" and FA0 Regional Commissions, especially in relation to Southeast Asia and India. The Middle East and North Africa is another region with moderate to relatively high FMD activity, the most successful example of which is Morocco. In sub-Saharan Africa, the southernmost countries of Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Swaziland, and South Africa, which can be described as medium-income countries, have ongoing systematic FMD control programs. 3. FMD endemic group: Generally these are among the least developed countries (LDC),some of which have a high livestock density. Typical examples are the countries of Eastern Africa.

* Office International des Epizooties.

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During 1997, Europe remained free of FMD, having effectivelyeliminated the 1996 FMD incursions into Bulgaria, Greece, Albania, and the former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). The virus strains that had been responsible for these outbreaks were serotypes 0 (Bulgaria and Greece) and type A (Albania and FYROM). In both episodes, these viruses were shown to be genetically similar to strains that had been known to circulate in the Middle East. Samples received in 1997 by the OIE/FAO World Reference Laboratory (WRL) (2) for FMD at Pirbright, the United Kingdom, from various parts of the Middle East revealed serotypes 0 and A, but it has been assumed that serotype Asia 1 probably still circulates in the region. The most dramatic recent FMD event in the Middle East is the detection of a new variant of type A virus, initially in 1996 in Iran and since March 1997 in the Asiatic part of Turkey, from the provinces of Malatya in eastern Anatolia and Kutayha in western Anatolia. Both sets of virus have been found t o be almost identical in the 1D (VP1) gene coding region (nucleotide sequence 475-639) and to be genetically different by about 20% from any other type A isolates in the WRL database. This virus has also been shown to be antigenically distinct and outside the immune cover provided by existing vaccine strains. In Asia the predominant serotypes have been 0,A, and Asia 1,which remain endemic in India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, and parts of China. In this region, too, there have been peculiar aspects of the epidemiology of FMD. First of all, a pig-adapted serotype 0 strain has been the cause of serious losses in the Taiwan Province of China, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Province of China, parts of Vietnam, and the Philippines, and in 1995 this virus was responsible for a single outbreak near Moscow. Another notable change has been the occurrence of a type A variant in Malaysia and Thailand, which has been linked to genetic drift from strains circulating in the region. South America has been enjoying a favorable period in FMD control, particularly in Uruguay, Chile, Argentina, Paraguay, and the southern states of Brazil. Uruguay and Chile continue t o be free from FMD without vaccination, and Argentina and Paraguay have attained FMD freedom with vaccination. Elsewhere, type 0 and A outbreaks have been reported in Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and northern Brazil. In Africa, large sections of South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, Namibia, Botswana, and Zimbabwe continue to be free of FMD. Accordingly, South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia have applied for and obtained recognition by the OIE for certain areas as FMD-free zones without vaccination. In North Africa, serological surveillance data from Morocco

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indicate that the country is now free of FMD. Serotype 0 has been detected in Egypt. FMD is endemic in most parts of tropical Africa, where serotypes 0,A, SAT1, and SAT 2 are predominant. Two variants of serotype A virus have been identified in Africa. The first one has been responsible for an epidemic in Ghana, the Ivory Coast, Mali, Senegal, Mauritania, and probably Gambia. This virus has been shown to be 20% divergent from contemporary vaccine strains in its VP gene. A second variant has been identified in Eritrea.

111. ECONOMIC AND FOOD SECURITY IMPACT OF FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE The impact of FMD is linked to three of the characteristics of this disease and its causative virus: it is highly contagious; it has a dramatic effect on the productivity of the most productive breeds and under the most efficient farming systems; and it has antigenic variability. FMD is the most highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals. This, coupled with the fact that it has a short incubation period, usually less than 7 days, means that in intensive farming systems, a primary outbreak can readily explode into a serious epidemic. Generally FMD is not a killing disease except in young stock, calves, and piglets, but it is a debilitating disease because of the vesicular lesions it produces. In dairy stock there is a dramatic drop in milk yield, and in all species recovery to full productive capacity is very slow. In developingcountries where draft power is of vital importance for cultivation, FMD has a serious impact on crop production, especially rice, and therefore its impact on food security goes beyond the direct effect on the supply of animal protein. Experience has shown that the impact of FMD on national and private livestock income, production, and development is evident in three areas. 1. FMD affects trade opportunities by reducing market opportunities (both the number of markets and the variety of acceptable products) and lowering market prices due to poorer quality and value of meat. 2. It Affects the farmer’s income by reducing income as a result of lower production of meat and milk and loss of draft power for crop production and transport; by indirectly affecting those reliant on others for animal draft power services; by adding the costs of treatment; and by improving the income of unaffected farmers, who may enjoy increased demand and/or better prices for meat, milk, and draft power in the short term.

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3. FMD affects the national economy by reducing the potential national herd growth, national output, and consumption; by changing the balance of payments (reduced livestock exports and/or increased livestock and pharmaceutical imports); and by adding the costs of prevention and treatment by livestock service staff. FMD control itself is also a very costly undertaking. In most situations, the cost of vaccination exceeds US$1 per head of cattle. As in many developingcountries, the most viable control option is mass vaccination coupled with movement control. This imposes a heavy burden on the national economy. By far the most important aspect of FMD goes beyond farm economics because FMD is the disease with the greatest impact on international trade. It is a major impediment to free international trade in livestock and animal products. Many countries with a comparative advantage in livestock production are excluded from world trade, resulting in reduced rural incomes and decreased development potential in wouldbe exporting countries; reduced consumer welfare in would-be importing countries; and adverse environmental effects of livestock production in less suitable areas. In most situations, benefit-cost studies demonstrate a favorable ratio for FMD control at the farm, community, national, and regional levels. Often the benefits relate to minimizing losses andlor increasing the export potential for large-scale farmers. Thus removal of the uncertainties due to FMD creates conditions that are conducive to profitable livestock farming. A benefit that is often not well illustrated is the impact of FMD control programs on community development. Because of the high contagiousness of FMD, control programs cannot be sustained by simply paying attention to the high-producing, intensive farming sector in developing countries as often this is not seggregated from the low-producing sector where disease may be endemic. A hallmark of the success in the progressive eradication of FMD in South America has been the development of inclusive programs characterized by partnership arrangements involving the public sector, the decentralization of operative functions to municipalities, and the involvement of both the commercial private sector and small-scale producers (campesinos) in planning and execution of the program. The success of the eradication process has been quite dramatic. In fact, it can be said that the rate of success in FMD eradication has depended largely on the degree of such integration. Eradication has had the obvious benefit of increasing the export trade. Furthermore, a study by the Pan American FMD Center (3) has shown that this integrated approach has revolu-

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tionized livestock production in the small farming sector. Thus efforts to improve the productive capacity of this sector are being stimulated by the determination of social sectors and government to strengthen economic, social, and productive strategies to make food of animal origin more available; decentralization of programs to promote local development through community participation in issues of livestock productivity; focused local disease surveillance; and formation of local committees for livestock productivity improvement. Thus it can be argued that South American FMD control programs have been a major stimulus in social and economic rural development because they have created an appropriate impetus for attention to productivity-limiting endemic diseases and improved general animal health. These results are generally termed the “consequential benefits” of FMD eradication. In 1995 a study by FA0 (4)identified major constraints other than FMD and other infectious diseases to the livestock industry development in Bolivia. These included inefficient husbandry systems (particularly in regard to nutrition and fertility) resulting in low producer profitability, which inhibits further investment; inadequate marketing facilities (transport, abattoirs, milk plants, and cold storage) that result in products of variable quantity and quality (with limited added value) produced at a relatively high price; lack of an effective official extension system that can transfer new techniques to producers; lack of a comprehensive marketing information system that can inform producers about the potential for various products; poor banking support, particularly a lack of soft credits (due in part to problems in obtaining guarantees based on property ownership); and a poorly developed transportation infrastructure that tends to isolate producers from modern developments and delays the delivery of their produce. The same FA0 study also showed that a successful FMD eradication program would have the consequential benefit of addressing these issues. The study concluded that among the unquantifiable benefits would be the establishment of a disease control infrastructure that would enable the control of other important livestock diseases that hinder productivity, and this would reduce the risks associated with investment in modern livestock enterprises. In addition, the eradication of FMD from Bolivia would significantly reduce the risk t o surrounding countries that have invested heavily in FMD eradication programs and would be a substantial step toward eradicating the disease from South America. A study by FA0 ( 5 ) on the impact of FMD at the household level in the Southeast Asian farming systems of Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam

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has shown that FMD can have considerable impact even on smallscale farmers in countries where there is organized FMD control. For example, it was shown that if outbreaks of FMD occurred prior to or during land preparation for rice planting, the additional plowing costs incurred by affected draft-owning farmers could range from US$8.4 to US$2.8, whereas an outbreak outside the period for land preparation may result in little additional draft power cost. It was also shown that poorer farmers who normally hire or exchange labor o r rice for draft power would be affected by an FMD outbreak if they faced additional delays in planting. This can be important, particularly in some rainfed systems where the timeliness of land preparation has a significant impact on yields. In Vietnam, an analysis of periurban dairy production indicated that the benefits of FMD preventive activities in areas at risk would vary from US$9 to US$29 per cow. This is equivalent to an increase of 7-24% in the margin per cow. Similarly for pigs, the study showed that FMD prevention would improve the gross margin on the order of 15%per finished pig ( 5 ) . In southern Africa, Thomson (6) contended that the most visible benefit of FMD control was evident in the commercial farming community. However, experience in Namibia and Botswana has also demonstrated consequential benefits to small-scale farmers similar to those in South America stemming from their inclusion in the FMD control programs. In East Africa, an analysis of supply and demand for animal protein has shown that even in Kenya there is a deficit of domestic milk, meat, and eggs. A survey (7) of the impact of FMD in Kenya and Uganda undertaken in 1997jointly by the FA0 and OAU/IBARt demonstrated growing concern regarding FMD among the increasing population of small-scale farmers with high-producing animals, especially in the dairy sector. This survey also demonstrated that although FMD has a less dramatic impact on the productivity of low-producing zebu cattle, the traditional nomadic pastoralists wish to take measures to avoid FMD. In Uganda, FMD was also seen as disrupting other animal health programs like vaccinations against contagious bovine pleuropneumonia or rinderpest, as livestock owners avoid the risk of FMD resulting from the congregation of animals for such vaccination campaigns. In India, FMD control is driven effectively by the National Dairy Development Board because the disease is perceived by members of the dairy cooperatives as a serious constraint on sustained and profitable milk production. l’’ Organization of African Unity, Inter-African Bureau for Animal Resources.

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IV. KEYPREREQUISITES FOR NATIONAL AND REGIONAL FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASEERADICATION In embarking on major national or regional FMD control programs, certain prerequisites need to be in place.

A. Local Epidemiology and Laboratory Support In most developing countries, FMD control depends primarily on vaccination until the incidence of disease has decreased sufficiently for other approaches to be cost-effective. Therefore, choosing a vaccine and a vaccination strategy are two of the initial decisions to be made by the national authority. Knowledge of the antigenic and genetic characteristics of the prevalent virus strains is essential to determine the formulation of an appropriate vaccine. Both of these objectives require access to an effective laboratory service capable of rapidly diagnosing the disease and of supporting a surveillance program. It is also important to establish a laboratory link with the WRL so that virus strains in the country can be readily analyzed against a global database to determine genetic character, to assist in epidemiology and traceback studies, and to predict vaccine performance. It is also becoming increasingly necessary to understand the dynamics of the disease within the livestock population and the impact of farming conditions, local and regional trade, and, consequently, animal movement patterns that are likely to affect the incidence of disease. Unfocused, blanket vaccination of susceptible livestock in the country has not proven to be the most cost-effective approach in many situations. To be successful, this approach would require that every single animal be vaccinated twice a year, a very costly procedure that is seldom undertaken. It is becoming increasingly apparent that an important initial step is to understand the local epidemiology so that the vaccination strategy can attack the virus at its source. In South America (8)this approach was developed in the 1980s to define areas of primary and secondary endemicity distinct from paraendemic areas. The Pan American FMD Center then championed the strategy of focusing vaccination primarily in cattle breeding zones that were often the primary endemic areas. Currently, the Philippine FMD control strategy divides the archipelago into three FMD zones: the disease-free zone in the south, the endemic zone in the north, and the intermediate buffer zone. The national plan can be categorized as involving (i) establishing a surveillance, emergency prevention, and emergency preparedness plan

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for the south; (ii) creating a sanitary cordon in the center comprising an intensive vaccination zone and a southerly intensive surveillance zone; and (iii) instituting progressive disease control in the endemic areas of the north. The approach t o progressive control initially involved a strong community awareness program during a phase of liberal, voluntary vaccination. The next region is then epidemiologically defined for focused attention when compulsory vaccination is introduced. So far, this approach has had better than expected results in terms of both FMD control and the development of a sustainable system for control of epidemic diseases. The Southeast Asia FMD Co-ordination Program established in 1997 also intends to promote the concept of an epidemiology-driven program for the progressive eradication of FMD from the region.

B . Economic Analyses and Planning Economic analyses with results that clearly indicate benefits t o the nation or region are an essential first step before starting a control campaign. A clear indication of increased trading opportunities will be most persuasive for those countries that have a surplus of livestock or products but are constrained from export by the presence of the disease. An additional important benefit would be increased availability of meat and milk for the inhabitants of the nation or region. Data for the analyses will comprise statistics on the current prevalence of disease, its economic impact on productivity, and the cost of the measures to control and eliminate it versus the benefits to be gained by successful eradication. Countries or regions with a high prevalence of disease may opt for a stepwise program, with the first goal being the establishment of disease-free zones in order to create opportunities for export. The revenue from these exports could then be used to reinforce the program and to secure and expand the free areas. For regional programs, the costs and benefits will need to be considered beyond the immediate benefit to each participating country in isolation. Although the benefits may be considerable for some countries within the region, they may be less evident for others. For example, in South America, the benefits of FMD eradication are greater for countries of the Merco-Sur than for those of the Andean region. In Europe the implementation of a nonvaccination policy brought more immediate gains to the countries that had been practicing regular annual vaccination than for those that had a nonvaccination policy in

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place. The former not only benefited from reduction in the annual cost of vaccinations but also gained access to markets (e.g., the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, and Australia) that previously had been closed for their livestock and animal products.

C. Farming Community Involvement

As already pointed out, a sustainable FMD control program is possible only if it involves all the farming communities at all stages of the process. Therefore, would-be campaign managers need to invest in programs for community awareness and participation. The experience of the F A 0 with the global rinderpest eradication program indicates that a successful disease eradication program needs to invest about 10-15% of the budget available for coordination activities in communication efforts to induce stakeholders to participate in the program. D. National or Regional Authority Although a successful and sustainable FMD program requires the participation of various players, it is still the one disease that demands an effective central veterinary authority with an appropriate and enforceable legal framework. When FMD programs are ineffective, a weak and ineffectual public veterinary service is often a contributing factor. Unfortunately, in several developing countries, the laudable attempts to develop a private veterinary sector have led t o downgrading of the public veterinary sector to the role of a provider of technical advice to farming communities. It is essential to stress that the sustained support of the national government or regional authority is of fundamental importance to FMD control. The countries involved must have a national contingency plan for the control of the disease. Legislation is an essential component and must be enacted before the campaign begins so that an outbreak of the disease is required by law to be reported to the veterinary authorities, and control and eradication measures can be legally enforceable. Budgets are required to support veterinary activities in the field, including the purchase and administration of prophylactic vaccine and contingency arrangements to provide emergency vaccine. In some cases, it may even be necessary to expand and strengthen the central veterinary administration, the field services, and their infrastructural support. In countries with land borders, FMD campaigns must be waged at the regional level. The cooperation of neighboring countries is essential

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to disseminate warnings about disease outbreaks and to mount effective control measures a t borders. Border checkpoints are required, which may need to be reinforced by facilities for holding animals during testing to ensure their freedom from infection. The transport of animals across borders is driven by market forces, and these should be considered when control measures are applied. Regular meetings should be held between representatives of the national control authorities of participating countries to coordinate disease control policies, to review progress, and to discuss and resolve any problems. As the campaign proceeds, it should be possible to establish and progressively extend disease-free areas. Steps should be taken to reinforce the security of established areas and to enlarge them progressively, for example, by adding futher checkpoints and carrying out more inspections to prevent the entry of potentially infected animals and products.

E. Veterinary Services An effective control campaign requires good surveillance, a strong centralized veterinary service with a well-organized infrastructure, and sufficient materials and personnel. Communication and transport networks must be rapid and efficient. Specialized groups must be available to administer vaccine, investigate suspected cases, collect samples, carry out epidemiological investigations, and apply zoo-sanitary measures if the presence of the disease is confirmed. Personnel must be properly trained and familiar with the legislation and codes of practice for disease control measures. Contingency plans should be coordinated for the region and in place before the campaign commences. Within each country the veterinary field staff must be responsible to, and under the control of, the central veterinary authority. EXPERIENCE FOR COORDINATION OF FOOT-AND-MOUTH V. EUROPEAN DISEASE REGIONAL ERADICATION For nearly 45 years FA0 has hosted the secretariat of the European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (EUFMD). This FA0 commission has been a model for similar commissions in other regions (e.g., South America and Southeast Asia), and it also provides lessons for other regions where such initiatives are being considered, such as the Middle East and the southern plus eastern African regions.

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The EUFMD was established in 1954 t o coordinate measures for the control of FMD in the European countries. At this time, FMD was endemic in many countries in Europe, and the general agreement was that, because of the highly contagious nature of the disease, it could not be controlled solely by national programs; coordination of the measures of all affected nations was essential. The initial purpose of the EUFMD was to limit the spread of the virus by encouraging member countries to undertake annual vaccination of their bovine populations and, in the event of an outbreak, to slaughter and destroy infected and contact animals. Countries with a favorable geographical position, such as the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Norway, relied entirely on eradication in the event of an outbreak and did not adopt a vaccination program. By the early 1980s, FMD had effectively been eradicated from Europe, although vaccination was continued in most countries and sporadic outbreaks were experienced. Creation of the single-market European Union (EU) provided the catalyst to reexamine the FMD policy for the EU, as well as for all members of EUFMD. The outcome was that effectively routine prophylactic vaccination was abandoned in Europe by the end of 1992. From 1993on, the primary role of the EUFMD has been to coordinate prevention, early warning, contingency planning, emergency preparedness, and an early reaction to disease incidents. The nonvaccination policy has now been in operation in Europe for several years. Since 1991, 18 primary outbreaks (2.57 per year) and 311 secondary outbreaks have occurred (see Table I). The average number of secondary outbreaks per primary outbreak has been 17.3, which corresponds to the predictive estimate of 20 secondary outbreaks made by the European Community at the time of introduction of the nonvaccination policy. Therefore the prevention policy has been efficient, and the occasional introduction of the virus did not result in large diffusion of the disease in the infected countries. The origins of the primary outbreaks which occurred in Europe between 1991 and 1996 may be indicative of the future FMD risk in Europe. These outbreaks may be grouped into the following categories: (i) illegal introduction of live animals from infected neighboring countries (smuggling or with forged certificates): Italy 1993, Greece 1994; (ii) importation of infected meat: Russia 1995, Type A epidemic in the Balkans in 1996;(iii)escape from laboratories: Russia 1993; (iv)indirect contacts: immigrants in Greece in 1996; and (v) unknown: Bulgaria 1993, 1996. These observations now form the basis of the risk assessment program for Europe. The outbreaks of classical swine fever in

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FMD AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT TABLE I FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE OUTBREAKS IN EUROPE BETWEEN 1991 AND 1997 Number of outbreaks Year

Primary

Secondary

Total

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

1 (Bulgaria) 0 3 (Italy, Bulgaria, Russia) 1 (Greece) 2 (Turkish Thrace, Russia) 11 (Turkish Thrace, Greece, Albania, FYRO Macedonia, FR Yugoslavia, Bulgaria) 0 18 2.57

0 0 56 94 0 161

1 0 59 95 2 172

1997

Total (7 years) Average per year

0

0

311

329

44.4

47

1997, especially in the Netherlands and Germany, have also highlighted the need to take into account the risk of large-scale farming practices when designing programs for either prevention or early reaction to new outbreaks of epidemic diseases. The current program ofthe EUFMD employs three lines of defense. 1. First line: preventing entry of the virus by increasing security at the borders to prevent disease from entering the region; promoting awareness of the threat of disease among veterinarians and livestock owners and traders; and developing herd and animal identification systems and comprehensive movement certification procedures. 2. Second line: ensuring prompt diagnosis and control, i f introduced, by contingency planning to ensure that the disease is clinically recognized, and that resources are available t o meet disease emergencies, and by maintaining adequate diagnostic facilities. 3. Third line: preparing to cope with the worst scenario by studying scenarios for different types of husbandry and especially for highly populated areadfarms; validating the scenarios by simulation exercises; preparing a contingency plan for vaccination; and ensuring that a source of vaccine is permanently available (vaccine/antigen bank). The successful progressive control leading to eradication of FMD in Europe provides a good example, especially for middle-incomecountries embarking on FMD control programs. Experience in Europe has shown

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that once the disease is no longer reported, the disease control policy should shift away from reliance on vaccination. Reliance on surveillance, early warning, and emergency preparedness is far less costly than trying to maintain disease freedom through regular vaccinations. Economic analysis in some countries, such as France, has demonstrated a positive benefit of this policy to both the farming community and the government. The EUFMD, operating as an independent organ under FAO, has proved to be a unifying system for commitment to the objective of FMD control across political or economic blocks. It has also fostered veterinary solidarity in the surveillance and control of transboundary animal diseases. VI. FUTURE INTERNATIONAL TRENDS The 1996 FA0 Expert Consultation on Transboundary Animal Diseases concluded that global eradication of FMD was not a realistic immediate objective for international development. However, the prospect of total eradication of the disease from the Americas by the year 2009 now seems realistic in view of the successes being recorded in South America. Initiatives have commenced for a long-term strategy for the eradication of FMD from the member countries, and India is already targeting FMD for eradication as the next disease after rinderpest. These are essentially middle-income countries. The experience of Europe and South America shows that it makes sound economic sense for such countries to embark on coordinated programs for the progressive control of FMD. The experience of South America has shown that the success of such programs depends largely on the degree of involvement of the private sector and the farming communities, including small-scale farmers, in such schemes. Evidently political resolve is a necessary prerequisite. These fundamental considerations have been well acknowledged in the Brasilia Declaration of the Ministers of Agriculture of the Americas, made on July 12, 1996 on the occasion of the International Conference on the Perspectives of Eradication of Footand-Mouth Disease in the Next Millennium and Its Impact of Food Security and Trade: Focus on the Americas, held in Brasilia, Brazil, jointly organized by the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO), the OIE, and the FAO. This declaration reaffirms the national commitment to the hemispheric plan for eradication of FMD from the Americas by the year 2009. Furthermore the declaration takes note of “the importance of the private sector and other ‘social factors’ of the livestock

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productive chain in the FMD eradication plans, at local, national, subregional and regional levels” and “confers special attention to the small livestock producers, in order to improve their productive capacity, their income and their social and economic conditions, aiming to create a sanitarylsocial space of great significance in the Continent.” Unfortunately, organized FMD control is still considered to be too expensive for the low-income-food-deficit countries. Yet, as has been demonstrated, even for these countries, organized FMD control makes economic sense. Organized FMD control has been shown to result in substantial benefits for livestock development and community development in general. Furthermore, it should be stressed that the presence of uncontrolled FMD will continue to deny these countries access to the otherwise liberal livestock markets within the context of the World Trade Organization, thus exacerbating their poverty and environment degradation in a vicious cycle. Consequently, future efforts will need to be directed toward countries that lack resources. Substantial technical and financial support from international animal health and donor organizations will be required if progress is to be made in extending existing FMD-free areas and in creating new areas so that ultimately all the areas can be linked together to achieve the goal of global FMD freedom and global free trade in livestock and animal products. International support will be required to manage and coordinate the financial and operational elements. In the short term, support is required for those activities that will improve knowledge of the distribution and epidemiology of FMD in the low-income-food-deficit countries. This will at least provide basic data for the definition of the problem that will eventually need to be tackled. It will also have the benefit of placing inexpensive and sustainable technology into a global early warning system against transboundary animal diseases of food security and economic importance. Furthermore, it will help t o develop a coherent and effective national veterinary service in such countries, which is a prerequisite for the prevention or progressive control of any major epidemic disease of livestock. Improvements in technology may assist countries that are free of FMD to maintain their status, and also those countries in which the disease is sporadic or endemic, by accelerating the progress of control and eradication programs. Advances in tests for diagnosis and surveillance, vaccinology,information technology, computing and networking, and their application to the improved control and eradication of FMD offer the prospect for improved, cost-effective approaches to the progressive control of FMD.

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MARK M. RWEYEMAMU AND YVES LEFORBAN

Finally, it has to be acknowledged that a technical factor that hinders total eradication of FMD from Africa is the long-term, persistent, subclinical infection of the cape buffalo with strains of FMD, especially of the Southern African Territories types (SATI, SAT2, SAT3). However, regardless of this problem, the countries of southern Africa have shown that it is possible to sustain FMD freedom in livestock, provided that there is no buffalo-livestock contact and that FMD-free buffalo herds are established.

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