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Footsteps into the future
Books
447
World order S. Venu Footsteps into the Future Rajni Kothari xxiii + 173 pages, DA 20.50, $8.75 (Amsterdam, North-Holland, 1974; New Delhi, Orient Longman ; New York, The Free Press) A Study of Future Worlds Richard Falk xxxiii + 506 pages, Dfl 80, $32.50 (Amsterdam, North-Holland, 1975; New Delhi, Orient Longman; New York, The Free Press) The Institute for World Order, New transnational sponsored a York, research enterprise in the late 1960s called the World Order Models Project (WOMP). A journal, Alternatives, has begun publication and a series of books, Preferred Worlds for the 1990’s, has been commissioned by the Institute, each dealing with one aspect of WOMP’s work. Dr Kothari’s book is the first of this series. At the outset, Kothari clarifies that his essay is not a model of the future on the lines of Herman Kahn or the Club of Rome. “Futurology is fast taking on the trappings of a science. The present essay does not fall in that mould”. The “footsteps” refer to the institutional reforms necessary if the sharp cleavage between the “haves” and the “have-nets” is to be bridged by the turn of the century. Unconsciously, the sentiments of Myrdal’s Asian Drama are echoed, but with a sharper focus on some aspects. What ails the world today? It is the dualist world order which has resulted in the vast majority of mankind living in a condition of “dependence and servility”. Kothari’s views on what is euphemistically known as justice are reminiscent of the onslaught on the US establishment by the New Left. S. Venu is a planning consultant, ringhed, Calcutta 16, India.
FUTURES
32
October 1976
37 Chow-
Freebooter colonialism in the 19th century aided and abetted by the cult of gunboat diplomacy resulted in a dramatic decline of the handicrafts industry in India. The rise of a “civilised” modern sector catering to the elite gave rise simultaneously to a vast reserve army of unemployed dependent on subsistence farming. Long ago Nehru wrote “The bones of the cotton weaver are bleaching on the plains of India”. Kothari’s analysis is similar. An enclave economy prevailed and there was no stimulating effect locally. In the post-independence period of the Third world, political imperialism gave way to economic neo-imperialism. Technology and skills had to be borrowed from the “haves”. Import substitution ruled supreme helped by the advice (this reviewer would add) of a “Mafia” of experts from the Western countries which produced indiscriminate import substitution. Despite a rising GNP the gap between rich and poor widened in India, Brazil, Indonesia, and other countries. With the ruling elite, the great avatar of conspicuous consumption was firmly established to the detriment of basic amenities like water supply, nutrition schemes, public transport, and rural housing which alone cater to the masses of the populace. If we add massive defence expenditures with a high opportunity cost in terms of the development investment forgone and liberal doses of racialism, the scenario is complete. What Kothari remedies does envisage ? His approach is quite conventional. First, a stress on rural transformation with the benefits of growth accruing to all the peasantry, not the select few. Second, labour-intensive industries and community works to prevent migration to cities which are rightly regarded as parasitic sponges
448
Books
overflowing with slum dwellers. The rise of small- and medium-sized growth centres and “growth poles” are implicit in the discussion. Third, a greater stress on primary, and less on elitish, education. Kothari is in good company when he calls for a reduction in vulgar consumption. But this homily is far more easily preached than practised, particularly by the ruling elite. The dedication of the book to Nyerere of Tanzania is appropriate as he alone, in the non-communist world, has enforced an egalitarian “non airconditioned” strategy of economic development. The solidarity of the Third world and greater control by international institutions over the actions of the are other prerequisites. But “haves” how far the “haves”, who dominate the institutions, will allow such control is left unanswered. Kothari’s vision of solidarity among the “have not? is also utopian considering the basic divergence of interests between oil producers and consumers, Israel and the Arabs, India and Pakistan, and so on. Each country might tackle inequality within its borders. Yet antagonism towards “traditional” enemies might still continue. Perhaps, the most interesting section deals with a regional model of federations to come. The structure is not described in detail but Kothari has in mind a close form of political and economic cooperation. But the primary criterion appears to be contiguity. Twenty-four regions are outlined : presumably their orbit of influence transcends the nation state to some extent by regional parliaments. Afghanistan and the countries of the old Indian empire are bracketed into the South Asian region. The hallmark of this book is the courage of conviction and the sincerity of the author visible through every page. The sweep and rigour of ideas compressed into the volume is commendable-revolution, violence, justice. Yet the reference to political
personalities as examples of “beacon” lights is sometimes irritating. Marshall Tito is cited as a humanitarian of peace; did he not sentence writers to long stretches of imprisonment as the price of dissent ? Minor aberrations apart, Kothari’s book is an excellent inaugural for the series, an appropriate send-off. Future worlds Falk’s book is the second volume to emerge from WOMP. Studies on futurology have now burgeoned. Yet, despite the deluge of literature few cover the wide canvas embraced by the WOMP authors. Kothari’s was an institution-oriented study setting out the problems of the Third world with a broad outline of possible remedies. Professor Richard Falk of Princeton University attempts a more detailed Kahn-like, Club of Rome vintage scenario of the shape of the world in AD 2000. Starting from a US policy-value base, Falk identifies four “preferences” for a better world-less violence, the maximisation of social well-being, man’s fundamental rights, and the rehabilitation of environmental quality. These preferences emanate from currently controversial issues in the USA and the West. Social well-being as against squalor” “private “public and affluence” is now hotly debated. The issue of fundamental rights arises from the peculiar attitude of the US establishment (he refers to the NixonKissinger syndrome later) who turn a blind eye to the atrocities of their allies the world over-in Brazil, Chile, and until recently Vietnam. What is the rationale for visualising a transition to a “world society” and transnationalism over the next 25 years ? Quite simply it is because the burning issues themselves transcend national boundaries, thus resulting in greater interdependence. Falk espouses a gloomy Malthusian standpoint on Li, the population explosion. Population
FUTURES
October 1976
Books
will press on resources and food supplies; the green revolution has merely mitigated the food problem. Technology will not suffice to arrest the trend. Implicit in this argument is the that family planning assumption methods in Asia and Latin America may not make any sizeable dent in the rate of population growth. However, in some states of India compulsory sterilisation is now well under way-albeit a draconian solution. It is compulsory for a man to be sterilised after fathering two children. In the Punjab, having a third child will land him in jail ! Haryana and Maharashtra have also promulgated or are contemplating similar measures. Falk etches out in visionary form a detailed new world order: l
l l l
The authority of the UN or a supra-national body will be strengthened. International agencies like the World Bank and UN will expand their role. Colonial and racist regimes will be eliminated. Multinational corporations will be increasingly regulated in accordance with WOMP values.
Within this tapestry he weaves a number of world, regional and functional systems, the key theme being that the influence of the superpowers (US, USSR, Europe, and Japan) will be “contained” by world bodies. Looking back, it is more than likely that, considering current developments and the Lockheed saga, the multinationals will be regulated more closely at home and abroad (the USA is passing strict surveillance laws and US unions are also watching events closely). However, given the predominance of US funds in UN bodies how can a world agency expect the USA to limit itself? Already the International Development Agency, the World Bank’s soft loan affiliate, is in its death throes
FUTURES
October 1876
449
through lack of monetary injections from the USA. The funding element ensures the supremacy of the big powers. Without any data base, Falk wistfully postulates that the UN or an equivalent world organisation will double its size and status (unexplained). Regional agencies will also double themselves but functional agencies will expand four-fold! Surely, such mathematical gymnastics of accuracy stretch one’s credulity to the extreme. Organisationally, Falk’s new order is a latter-day version of H. G. Wells’ schemes. There will be a world assembly of governments with separate economic and security systems and a plethora of subsidiaries like the technology board, trade systems, human development, environmental authority -all global in authority. Nationalism, however, is still a strong force in human nature. Witness for example, the fight for the 200-mile economic and fishery zones limits being waged in international councils, some for and some against depending on their national interest. Technology boards that will oversee are a strong possibility within the next five years; but supranational organs must of necessity be circumscribed. Falk discusses the future profile of selected aspects of the multinationals, but it is largely a rehash of previous scholarly work. Whereas Kothari concentrated on regional federations and their development, Falk has covered the more aggregative one-world concept. To some extent, therefore, his in-depth analysis must inevitably suffer. Yet, in its sweep of concepts, in the author’s burning desire for structural change and in the desire to eliminate selfish power syndromes, the book has much to commend it. All this has been combined with a flow of language and logic which make for easy reading despite the great number of original ideas in the volume.
447
World order S. Venu Footsteps into the Future Rajni Kothari xxiii + 173 pages, DA 20.50, $8.75 (Amsterdam, North-Holland, 1974; New Delhi, Orient Longman ; New York, The Free Press) A Study of Future Worlds Richard Falk xxxiii + 506 pages, Dfl 80, $32.50 (Amsterdam, North-Holland, 1975; New Delhi, Orient Longman; New York, The Free Press) The Institute for World Order, New transnational sponsored a York, research enterprise in the late 1960s called the World Order Models Project (WOMP). A journal, Alternatives, has begun publication and a series of books, Preferred Worlds for the 1990’s, has been commissioned by the Institute, each dealing with one aspect of WOMP’s work. Dr Kothari’s book is the first of this series. At the outset, Kothari clarifies that his essay is not a model of the future on the lines of Herman Kahn or the Club of Rome. “Futurology is fast taking on the trappings of a science. The present essay does not fall in that mould”. The “footsteps” refer to the institutional reforms necessary if the sharp cleavage between the “haves” and the “have-nets” is to be bridged by the turn of the century. Unconsciously, the sentiments of Myrdal’s Asian Drama are echoed, but with a sharper focus on some aspects. What ails the world today? It is the dualist world order which has resulted in the vast majority of mankind living in a condition of “dependence and servility”. Kothari’s views on what is euphemistically known as justice are reminiscent of the onslaught on the US establishment by the New Left. S. Venu is a planning consultant, ringhed, Calcutta 16, India.
FUTURES
32
October 1976
37 Chow-
Freebooter colonialism in the 19th century aided and abetted by the cult of gunboat diplomacy resulted in a dramatic decline of the handicrafts industry in India. The rise of a “civilised” modern sector catering to the elite gave rise simultaneously to a vast reserve army of unemployed dependent on subsistence farming. Long ago Nehru wrote “The bones of the cotton weaver are bleaching on the plains of India”. Kothari’s analysis is similar. An enclave economy prevailed and there was no stimulating effect locally. In the post-independence period of the Third world, political imperialism gave way to economic neo-imperialism. Technology and skills had to be borrowed from the “haves”. Import substitution ruled supreme helped by the advice (this reviewer would add) of a “Mafia” of experts from the Western countries which produced indiscriminate import substitution. Despite a rising GNP the gap between rich and poor widened in India, Brazil, Indonesia, and other countries. With the ruling elite, the great avatar of conspicuous consumption was firmly established to the detriment of basic amenities like water supply, nutrition schemes, public transport, and rural housing which alone cater to the masses of the populace. If we add massive defence expenditures with a high opportunity cost in terms of the development investment forgone and liberal doses of racialism, the scenario is complete. What Kothari remedies does envisage ? His approach is quite conventional. First, a stress on rural transformation with the benefits of growth accruing to all the peasantry, not the select few. Second, labour-intensive industries and community works to prevent migration to cities which are rightly regarded as parasitic sponges
448
Books
overflowing with slum dwellers. The rise of small- and medium-sized growth centres and “growth poles” are implicit in the discussion. Third, a greater stress on primary, and less on elitish, education. Kothari is in good company when he calls for a reduction in vulgar consumption. But this homily is far more easily preached than practised, particularly by the ruling elite. The dedication of the book to Nyerere of Tanzania is appropriate as he alone, in the non-communist world, has enforced an egalitarian “non airconditioned” strategy of economic development. The solidarity of the Third world and greater control by international institutions over the actions of the are other prerequisites. But “haves” how far the “haves”, who dominate the institutions, will allow such control is left unanswered. Kothari’s vision of solidarity among the “have not? is also utopian considering the basic divergence of interests between oil producers and consumers, Israel and the Arabs, India and Pakistan, and so on. Each country might tackle inequality within its borders. Yet antagonism towards “traditional” enemies might still continue. Perhaps, the most interesting section deals with a regional model of federations to come. The structure is not described in detail but Kothari has in mind a close form of political and economic cooperation. But the primary criterion appears to be contiguity. Twenty-four regions are outlined : presumably their orbit of influence transcends the nation state to some extent by regional parliaments. Afghanistan and the countries of the old Indian empire are bracketed into the South Asian region. The hallmark of this book is the courage of conviction and the sincerity of the author visible through every page. The sweep and rigour of ideas compressed into the volume is commendable-revolution, violence, justice. Yet the reference to political
personalities as examples of “beacon” lights is sometimes irritating. Marshall Tito is cited as a humanitarian of peace; did he not sentence writers to long stretches of imprisonment as the price of dissent ? Minor aberrations apart, Kothari’s book is an excellent inaugural for the series, an appropriate send-off. Future worlds Falk’s book is the second volume to emerge from WOMP. Studies on futurology have now burgeoned. Yet, despite the deluge of literature few cover the wide canvas embraced by the WOMP authors. Kothari’s was an institution-oriented study setting out the problems of the Third world with a broad outline of possible remedies. Professor Richard Falk of Princeton University attempts a more detailed Kahn-like, Club of Rome vintage scenario of the shape of the world in AD 2000. Starting from a US policy-value base, Falk identifies four “preferences” for a better world-less violence, the maximisation of social well-being, man’s fundamental rights, and the rehabilitation of environmental quality. These preferences emanate from currently controversial issues in the USA and the West. Social well-being as against squalor” “private “public and affluence” is now hotly debated. The issue of fundamental rights arises from the peculiar attitude of the US establishment (he refers to the NixonKissinger syndrome later) who turn a blind eye to the atrocities of their allies the world over-in Brazil, Chile, and until recently Vietnam. What is the rationale for visualising a transition to a “world society” and transnationalism over the next 25 years ? Quite simply it is because the burning issues themselves transcend national boundaries, thus resulting in greater interdependence. Falk espouses a gloomy Malthusian standpoint on Li, the population explosion. Population
FUTURES
October 1976
Books
will press on resources and food supplies; the green revolution has merely mitigated the food problem. Technology will not suffice to arrest the trend. Implicit in this argument is the that family planning assumption methods in Asia and Latin America may not make any sizeable dent in the rate of population growth. However, in some states of India compulsory sterilisation is now well under way-albeit a draconian solution. It is compulsory for a man to be sterilised after fathering two children. In the Punjab, having a third child will land him in jail ! Haryana and Maharashtra have also promulgated or are contemplating similar measures. Falk etches out in visionary form a detailed new world order: l
l l l
The authority of the UN or a supra-national body will be strengthened. International agencies like the World Bank and UN will expand their role. Colonial and racist regimes will be eliminated. Multinational corporations will be increasingly regulated in accordance with WOMP values.
Within this tapestry he weaves a number of world, regional and functional systems, the key theme being that the influence of the superpowers (US, USSR, Europe, and Japan) will be “contained” by world bodies. Looking back, it is more than likely that, considering current developments and the Lockheed saga, the multinationals will be regulated more closely at home and abroad (the USA is passing strict surveillance laws and US unions are also watching events closely). However, given the predominance of US funds in UN bodies how can a world agency expect the USA to limit itself? Already the International Development Agency, the World Bank’s soft loan affiliate, is in its death throes
FUTURES
October 1876
449
through lack of monetary injections from the USA. The funding element ensures the supremacy of the big powers. Without any data base, Falk wistfully postulates that the UN or an equivalent world organisation will double its size and status (unexplained). Regional agencies will also double themselves but functional agencies will expand four-fold! Surely, such mathematical gymnastics of accuracy stretch one’s credulity to the extreme. Organisationally, Falk’s new order is a latter-day version of H. G. Wells’ schemes. There will be a world assembly of governments with separate economic and security systems and a plethora of subsidiaries like the technology board, trade systems, human development, environmental authority -all global in authority. Nationalism, however, is still a strong force in human nature. Witness for example, the fight for the 200-mile economic and fishery zones limits being waged in international councils, some for and some against depending on their national interest. Technology boards that will oversee are a strong possibility within the next five years; but supranational organs must of necessity be circumscribed. Falk discusses the future profile of selected aspects of the multinationals, but it is largely a rehash of previous scholarly work. Whereas Kothari concentrated on regional federations and their development, Falk has covered the more aggregative one-world concept. To some extent, therefore, his in-depth analysis must inevitably suffer. Yet, in its sweep of concepts, in the author’s burning desire for structural change and in the desire to eliminate selfish power syndromes, the book has much to commend it. All this has been combined with a flow of language and logic which make for easy reading despite the great number of original ideas in the volume.