- Email: [email protected]
Forecasting coups to come
262
Conferences/Report
cause exploitation and decline in total biomass ? Professor Few concluded that in a profler economic environment (where energy costs reflect actual values in terms of sustained yields of renewable resources) the economic forces should actually encourage the maintenance and reestablishment of lands committed to production of biomass. Mitchell prize winner James Garbarino’s essay was based on the premise that quality in human life is inseparably linked to the well-being of children. He recommended that socially strong neighbourhoods should be preserved
and restored, school sizes should be reduced and “family impact analyses” should be conducted as a basis for guiding decisions in the public and private sectors. As the conference wound up it became obvious to all participants, as it had been to some before the meeting began, that the quest for the sustainable society is both complex and serious. No longer can it be dismissed as a mere ideological tilting at windmills by a few futurists. James C. Coomer University of Houston at Clear Lake City, USA
REPORT Forecasting
coups to come
Marvin J. Cetron Three years ago I warned about an Islamic revolution in Iran. Nobody listened. A recently completed four-year study by Forecasting International indicates that Japan’s status will decline because it is losing business to resource-rich China; Israel will become a less stable and more isolated state; there will be a revolution in Saudi Arabia unless it receives massive support ; and economic disasters will strike India and Poland. The forecasts are based on a combination of statistics and intelligent judgement. The vital signs for a nation -their welfare figures, how they take care of injustice, the treatment of dissidents, political stability, military security, their self-image-are inteMarvin J. Cetron is President of Forecasting International, PO Box 1650, 1001 North Highland St, Arlington, VA, USA. The study was prepared for 25 large US corporations in 1979.
grated and compared with trends which may affect the country. Juggling all these factors sounds like an impossible nightmare, until you learn that they are turned into numbers -say, the effect of food on population is 2 on a scale of 8, but the effect of population on food is 8-which are assigned to them by experts. As an example of an external trend which might affect a country’s wellbeing, take a little thing like corn. You can get sweetener from corn, and it is cheaper and even sweeter, than from sugar cane, so you say what’s the big deal ? Well, it is a big deal : it dropped five countries into what we call the Fourth world, which means they are not only underdeveloped like the Third world, but also have no natural resources that the rest of the world wants. As an exception was Jamaica, which lost its sugar market to sweetener from
FUTURES
June 1980
Report
corn, but Jamaica happened also to have bauxite and so was still in the ball game. The problem today is that we have too much data-we have data pollution. The key to success is to identify the critical factors. As an example let me summarise my reasoning on the Iranian prediction, which was made in January 1977. Where
the Shah went wrong
The Shah tried too much too fast, with women’s rights and civil rights Western-type reforms. and other Ataturk did it in Turkey 60 years ago, but he went much slower. The biggest problem was that the Shah stopped paying the mullahs, the church leaders. We call it bribery, but this is an accepted part of economic life in that part of the world. I am not optimistic about the immediate future in Iran and other countries with large numbers of Shi’ite Muslims because their self-image is so high that they will die for their beliefs. Also, the USA is perceived badly by them; they don’t think the USA will fight. So the proportion of Shi’ites in the population has become one of the vital signs examined in assessing the degree of cultural tension in Middle Eastern countries. Another key sign of stress is the income gap between the top and bottom tenths of the economic scale. Now in Saudi Arabia today, there is a 30 times gap between the income of the upper 10% and lower 10%. People are uptight. Also they are not paying enough attention to the mullahs. So we find Arabia extremely unstable. Another key statistic is the proportion of educated males, urban, 18-28, who are unemployed. These are young men who perhaps have come from the countryside, got some education and moved to the city, but have no job. They cannot go back and be a
FUTURES
June I@80
263
shepherd. They have nothing to lose, no vested interest in the political system. One is reminded inescapably of the Iranian “students”. If a country doubles its military salaries in two years, you know they know they have a problem-they are buying loyalty. Some vital signs or stability indicators are shown in Table 1. Some of the changes in national status, ranked from least to most stable, are shown in Table 2. India will experience severe problems. It is one of the poorest countries there is. The Indians have an enormous population problem, food-supply difficulties, no energy sources, and no real industrial capability or natural resources. Their problems are so critical that they are way out in front as the most unstable country of the major nations of the world. There is going to be a big struggle between those who think Israel should be a purely secular state and those who want it to be a religious state run by the Orthodox. They have no energy, no resources, and crippling inflation as well as a serious brain drain-many of their best people are coming to the USA-and the Arab population in Israel is growing five times as fast. I think Israel may ultimately be pressured by the rest of the world into giving up the West Bank-but I don’t think that will help matters. It will just bring out the the real reason most truth : that countries don’t support Israel is not the Palestinian question, but, as I see it, that the western countries are being blackmailed by OPEC. They need the oil. Poland is third. It is a marginal producer of industrial equipment and agricultural products, so under present conditions its economy is just squeaking by. In that respect, Poland is like Argentina. What makes Argentina more stable-14th on the list-is that it has a better-educated electorate, more natural resources, more fertile land
264
Report
TABLE 1. NATIONAL Stability indicators
Argentina
~ati~cal stability f.7 Transfer of power Acceptance of central authority : Administrative competence 2 Economic base Size of total GNP GNP per capita Annual per capita growth rate GDP deflater Balance of trade
2.6 2
Welfare delivery Educational level Life expectancy Population growth rate Per capita protein grams/day
STABILITY
INDICATORS
AS ASSESSED
China
France
West Germany India
2-O 2
4.0 4
8.0 8
6.5 8
r2
44
:
88
3.2
3.6 4 2 4
6.0
4.4
: 4
8 2
Brazil
Canada
4‘7 f: 2 3.0 4
2
2 8
:
1
d
6.0 4 8 4 8
3.6 4 8
4.0 4
8.0 t
8.0 8
t 2
8 8
t 8
:: 2 1
National security Existence of possible conflicts Military capacity Support from another country Vulnerabrl~ty to economic sanctions
2.8
2.8 4
3-3
4.5 :
435 2 4
2.0 2
s
4
:
8 4
48
: 4
International Influence Role in regional organisations Role in UN Role in financial organisations Foreign aid
3.8 8
6.3 8
3*3
6.0 8
8.0 8
3.8 2
National unity Cultural conflict Unifying ideology
:
:
:
t
1
4 I
4.5
3,o
1
t
a
:
fran 2.7 2 4 2 4.6 s 8
:
:
2.3
2.0 2 : 1 2.8 2”
:
8
ii
IN 1977s
x
8 8 8
4
4.0 4 4
66 4 4
4.0 8 4
i
: 1 3.0 :
: 1.8 t 4 1 2.6 2 2
Nofe: a On a stablllty scale of 1 flow) to 8 {high).
and uranium, reactors.
as
well
as
nuclear
Zimbabwe will get a little better. I believe the Zimbabweans are really going to have a peace settlement, It will be a representative black regime, but they will have problems because the bureaucracy needed to run the country is not in place yet. Zimbabwe will make it, but it will take time. Japan will experience serious internal pressures over the next two decades because 96% of its energy is imported; it has few natural resources. By the end of the century Japan will be replaced by China as an economic power. The Chinese have the resources, the energy and the dedication. They believe in hard work, delayed goals, the family structure. The Chinese are like the Americans used to be. They have some food and population problems, they are being corrected but in the long run they have everything it takes. South Africa (7th) is headed for disaster because of its racial policy. The
only friend it has is Israel. After Japan comes Iran, where anything can happen. Oddly enough, in the long run Iran appears more stable than Japan simply because it has its own oil. As to how long Iran’s Ayatollah Khomeini will last, I have no prediction. But Iran has five major factions that don’t agree with the central government, and a significant number of Muslims in Iran are not Shi’ite Muslims. That spells instability. f think the only support the USA can hope for, by the way, is from the middle oflicers in the Iranian army who were schooled here and trained on US equipment. Some of them may still harbour some pro-American sentiments. In Mexico population is the big problem, and they desperately need the escape valve of their people moving into the USA. The US will have to keep buying their oil and natural gas, and they have got to spread the wealth around to their people. Brazil suffers from terrorism and a brutal junta.
FUTURES
June 1980
Report
Israel Japan Libya Mexico Nigeria Pakistan Poland 6$7 8 4
a
2-4 4 2 4 1 1 5.3 4
8.0
4.0
5.3
2.0
2.7
88
82 2
il 4
% 2
; 4
6.4
4.0 2
1.8 2 2 2 2 1
3.4 2 1
1.6 2 1 2 2 1
a a
8 4 4 8
3.8
4
: 1 2
a a
a
a
2.0 2 2
3.5 4 1
2’
f
I.5
4.0 2 4
: 2 1 3.0 2 4
: a
7.0
a
1
a
a
2 6.0 8 4
3.8 4
a
2 4
USSR
UK
YUQO- Zimbabwe slavia Rhodesia
4.3 8. 4 4
4.0 4 4 4
8.0
2.7
2.0
88
a
22 4
22 2
2.8 :
3.4 2
2.8 2
: 2
t 2 1
I 4 4
:
3.3 4 4 2
3.8
5.4
2.4
d
5 8
x 2
5.6 8 4 4
:
4’
4”
2.0 I 4 1 2
3.3 4 4 1 4
7.0 4 8 8 8
2.3 4 2
1.5 2 1
6.0 4
:
:
84
1.5
6.0 8
3.3 4
a
2 1
I.3
1.8
7.0
1 2
: 1 1
: I 1
: 8
1.3 I 1 1 2
3.8
3.5
a
2.0 2
4.0 4
:
: 4
t 2
2.8 4 2 4 1
6.3 8 4 4 1
2.8 2 4 2 1
2.5 4 2 2 2
4.5 4 2 t
1 2 2 1
6.0
4.0 4 4
5.0
6.0
4.0 4 4
2.0 2 2
a
4
a
a :
4
1
4.3
a
4 4 1 1.5 I 2
a
2
a
a
4
Nigeria has no industrial base, but at least it has oil. If Qadaffi keeps his mouth shut, and does not anger neighbouring Egypt, Morocco, and Algeria Libya will be all right. France, the USSR, West Germany, Canada, and the United Kingdom have some destabilising elements, but nothing really worrisome. Afghanistan is not unstable; it is going to be a Russian satellite. The Russians know they don’t have to go into the mountains to fight the Afghans, they only have to control the cities and the main road. The USA cannot send arms to the Afghan rebels. It is doubtful that the equipment would get through, and even if it did the Afghans have no organisation and no capability to use the kinds of complex weapons, eg antitank missiles, which the USA would send. Nuclear war is not a strong possibility in this century, because no one can afford reprisal. It is like nerve gas which was not used in World War 2.
FUTURES
Saudi South Arabia Korea
June 1980
265
a
a
4 4 4.0 4 4
8.0
7.0
2.5
t 8
1 a a
:
2.5 4 1 4 1
1.3
a
5.0
a
2 28 6.5
a a a 2
6.0 4
a
: : :
2.3 2 4 2 4
:
2.0 2 2
1.6 1 2
1.0
:
There are three things I don’t think any country will use: nuclear, fatal chemicals, and biological warfare (nonlethal gas probably would be used). If there is a land war with the Warsaw Pact in Europe, NATO would have no choice but to use nuclear tactical weapons, with the hope that this will not escalate to strategic nuclear warfare. The USA at the close of this century will resemble Sweden but with a catastrophic national health service, more social programmes, and no poor to speak of. In education, the teachers will be working only two days a weekthe kids will be home three days using an interactive TV or computer system where they will have some input. More people will be working at home because of computers. That will increase the divorce rate by the way-maybe quadruple it-because people can take each other in small doses, but 24 hours a day, 7 days a week is tough. In the energy arena, I see the USA
266
Report/Meetings
TABLE 2. NATIONAL New rank (19994999)
STABILITY
RATING%‘
Country
Original
India Israel Poland Zimbabwe Rhodesia Pakistan Yugoslavia South Africa
1: 15
rank (1977)
Most unsfable 2, B z 7
: :
Sph fly desfabilised 20 6
i%” Mexico China Brazil Nigeria Argentina
9 :; 1: 14 Some des~biiising 15
:2” 6 3 9
elements Libya Saudi Arabia France USSR
:: 18 Stable
~a~~d~any :: 21
UnitediKlngdom
Note: a Based on an analysis
of stability
using breeder reactors, because plutonium fuel is 80% recycled and increases our basic uranium fuel supply. The USA will become more stable, that is why the Saudis invest their petrodollars here. The USA is the best industrialised country to invest in for the next 10 years because it has: l
a smaller labour,
percentage
of unionised
and likely trends.
smaller fringe-benefit packages, 0 a lower wage rate, l a large market for consumer goods, 0 a comparatively low inflation rate, l good raw-materials availability, and l comparatively low energy and transport costs. l
In the long run there is no country stronger than the USA at present.
MEETINGS j%& Z&25,1980, Toronto, Canada THROUGH THE 8Os, inco~rating the fifth annual conference of the Canadian Association for Futures Studies and the third general assembly of the World Future Society. Enquiries: 1980 Conference Committee, World Future Society, 4916 St Elmo Avenue, W~hin~on, DC 20014, USA.
Aug& 2-9, 1980, Ha&& Wates Summer school on the SOCIAL CONTEXT OF ENERGY, organised by Science in a Social Context and the Science, Technology and Society Association. Enquiries: Jill Miller, Department of Liberal Studies in Science, University of Manchester, Manchester Ml3 9PL, UK.
July 22-25,1080, Cambridge, UK Fourth European congress on OPERATIONS RESEARCH. Enqtdiries: M. Shutler, EURO IV, Operational Research Society, Neville House, Waterloo Street, Birmingham B2 5TX, UK.
August 19-23, 1980, Geneva, Switzerland Conference on SIMULATION/GAMES in education, research, and decision making. Enql&ks : Dinah Goldberg, University of Geneva, FPSE 24, rue General Dufour, CH12 11 Geneva 4, Switzerland.
FUTURES
slum IS80
Conferences/Report
cause exploitation and decline in total biomass ? Professor Few concluded that in a profler economic environment (where energy costs reflect actual values in terms of sustained yields of renewable resources) the economic forces should actually encourage the maintenance and reestablishment of lands committed to production of biomass. Mitchell prize winner James Garbarino’s essay was based on the premise that quality in human life is inseparably linked to the well-being of children. He recommended that socially strong neighbourhoods should be preserved
and restored, school sizes should be reduced and “family impact analyses” should be conducted as a basis for guiding decisions in the public and private sectors. As the conference wound up it became obvious to all participants, as it had been to some before the meeting began, that the quest for the sustainable society is both complex and serious. No longer can it be dismissed as a mere ideological tilting at windmills by a few futurists. James C. Coomer University of Houston at Clear Lake City, USA
REPORT Forecasting
coups to come
Marvin J. Cetron Three years ago I warned about an Islamic revolution in Iran. Nobody listened. A recently completed four-year study by Forecasting International indicates that Japan’s status will decline because it is losing business to resource-rich China; Israel will become a less stable and more isolated state; there will be a revolution in Saudi Arabia unless it receives massive support ; and economic disasters will strike India and Poland. The forecasts are based on a combination of statistics and intelligent judgement. The vital signs for a nation -their welfare figures, how they take care of injustice, the treatment of dissidents, political stability, military security, their self-image-are inteMarvin J. Cetron is President of Forecasting International, PO Box 1650, 1001 North Highland St, Arlington, VA, USA. The study was prepared for 25 large US corporations in 1979.
grated and compared with trends which may affect the country. Juggling all these factors sounds like an impossible nightmare, until you learn that they are turned into numbers -say, the effect of food on population is 2 on a scale of 8, but the effect of population on food is 8-which are assigned to them by experts. As an example of an external trend which might affect a country’s wellbeing, take a little thing like corn. You can get sweetener from corn, and it is cheaper and even sweeter, than from sugar cane, so you say what’s the big deal ? Well, it is a big deal : it dropped five countries into what we call the Fourth world, which means they are not only underdeveloped like the Third world, but also have no natural resources that the rest of the world wants. As an exception was Jamaica, which lost its sugar market to sweetener from
FUTURES
June 1980
Report
corn, but Jamaica happened also to have bauxite and so was still in the ball game. The problem today is that we have too much data-we have data pollution. The key to success is to identify the critical factors. As an example let me summarise my reasoning on the Iranian prediction, which was made in January 1977. Where
the Shah went wrong
The Shah tried too much too fast, with women’s rights and civil rights Western-type reforms. and other Ataturk did it in Turkey 60 years ago, but he went much slower. The biggest problem was that the Shah stopped paying the mullahs, the church leaders. We call it bribery, but this is an accepted part of economic life in that part of the world. I am not optimistic about the immediate future in Iran and other countries with large numbers of Shi’ite Muslims because their self-image is so high that they will die for their beliefs. Also, the USA is perceived badly by them; they don’t think the USA will fight. So the proportion of Shi’ites in the population has become one of the vital signs examined in assessing the degree of cultural tension in Middle Eastern countries. Another key sign of stress is the income gap between the top and bottom tenths of the economic scale. Now in Saudi Arabia today, there is a 30 times gap between the income of the upper 10% and lower 10%. People are uptight. Also they are not paying enough attention to the mullahs. So we find Arabia extremely unstable. Another key statistic is the proportion of educated males, urban, 18-28, who are unemployed. These are young men who perhaps have come from the countryside, got some education and moved to the city, but have no job. They cannot go back and be a
FUTURES
June I@80
263
shepherd. They have nothing to lose, no vested interest in the political system. One is reminded inescapably of the Iranian “students”. If a country doubles its military salaries in two years, you know they know they have a problem-they are buying loyalty. Some vital signs or stability indicators are shown in Table 1. Some of the changes in national status, ranked from least to most stable, are shown in Table 2. India will experience severe problems. It is one of the poorest countries there is. The Indians have an enormous population problem, food-supply difficulties, no energy sources, and no real industrial capability or natural resources. Their problems are so critical that they are way out in front as the most unstable country of the major nations of the world. There is going to be a big struggle between those who think Israel should be a purely secular state and those who want it to be a religious state run by the Orthodox. They have no energy, no resources, and crippling inflation as well as a serious brain drain-many of their best people are coming to the USA-and the Arab population in Israel is growing five times as fast. I think Israel may ultimately be pressured by the rest of the world into giving up the West Bank-but I don’t think that will help matters. It will just bring out the the real reason most truth : that countries don’t support Israel is not the Palestinian question, but, as I see it, that the western countries are being blackmailed by OPEC. They need the oil. Poland is third. It is a marginal producer of industrial equipment and agricultural products, so under present conditions its economy is just squeaking by. In that respect, Poland is like Argentina. What makes Argentina more stable-14th on the list-is that it has a better-educated electorate, more natural resources, more fertile land
264
Report
TABLE 1. NATIONAL Stability indicators
Argentina
~ati~cal stability f.7 Transfer of power Acceptance of central authority : Administrative competence 2 Economic base Size of total GNP GNP per capita Annual per capita growth rate GDP deflater Balance of trade
2.6 2
Welfare delivery Educational level Life expectancy Population growth rate Per capita protein grams/day
STABILITY
INDICATORS
AS ASSESSED
China
France
West Germany India
2-O 2
4.0 4
8.0 8
6.5 8
r2
44
:
88
3.2
3.6 4 2 4
6.0
4.4
: 4
8 2
Brazil
Canada
4‘7 f: 2 3.0 4
2
2 8
:
1
d
6.0 4 8 4 8
3.6 4 8
4.0 4
8.0 t
8.0 8
t 2
8 8
t 8
:: 2 1
National security Existence of possible conflicts Military capacity Support from another country Vulnerabrl~ty to economic sanctions
2.8
2.8 4
3-3
4.5 :
435 2 4
2.0 2
s
4
:
8 4
48
: 4
International Influence Role in regional organisations Role in UN Role in financial organisations Foreign aid
3.8 8
6.3 8
3*3
6.0 8
8.0 8
3.8 2
National unity Cultural conflict Unifying ideology
:
:
:
t
1
4 I
4.5
3,o
1
t
a
:
fran 2.7 2 4 2 4.6 s 8
:
:
2.3
2.0 2 : 1 2.8 2”
:
8
ii
IN 1977s
x
8 8 8
4
4.0 4 4
66 4 4
4.0 8 4
i
: 1 3.0 :
: 1.8 t 4 1 2.6 2 2
Nofe: a On a stablllty scale of 1 flow) to 8 {high).
and uranium, reactors.
as
well
as
nuclear
Zimbabwe will get a little better. I believe the Zimbabweans are really going to have a peace settlement, It will be a representative black regime, but they will have problems because the bureaucracy needed to run the country is not in place yet. Zimbabwe will make it, but it will take time. Japan will experience serious internal pressures over the next two decades because 96% of its energy is imported; it has few natural resources. By the end of the century Japan will be replaced by China as an economic power. The Chinese have the resources, the energy and the dedication. They believe in hard work, delayed goals, the family structure. The Chinese are like the Americans used to be. They have some food and population problems, they are being corrected but in the long run they have everything it takes. South Africa (7th) is headed for disaster because of its racial policy. The
only friend it has is Israel. After Japan comes Iran, where anything can happen. Oddly enough, in the long run Iran appears more stable than Japan simply because it has its own oil. As to how long Iran’s Ayatollah Khomeini will last, I have no prediction. But Iran has five major factions that don’t agree with the central government, and a significant number of Muslims in Iran are not Shi’ite Muslims. That spells instability. f think the only support the USA can hope for, by the way, is from the middle oflicers in the Iranian army who were schooled here and trained on US equipment. Some of them may still harbour some pro-American sentiments. In Mexico population is the big problem, and they desperately need the escape valve of their people moving into the USA. The US will have to keep buying their oil and natural gas, and they have got to spread the wealth around to their people. Brazil suffers from terrorism and a brutal junta.
FUTURES
June 1980
Report
Israel Japan Libya Mexico Nigeria Pakistan Poland 6$7 8 4
a
2-4 4 2 4 1 1 5.3 4
8.0
4.0
5.3
2.0
2.7
88
82 2
il 4
% 2
; 4
6.4
4.0 2
1.8 2 2 2 2 1
3.4 2 1
1.6 2 1 2 2 1
a a
8 4 4 8
3.8
4
: 1 2
a a
a
a
2.0 2 2
3.5 4 1
2’
f
I.5
4.0 2 4
: 2 1 3.0 2 4
: a
7.0
a
1
a
a
2 6.0 8 4
3.8 4
a
2 4
USSR
UK
YUQO- Zimbabwe slavia Rhodesia
4.3 8. 4 4
4.0 4 4 4
8.0
2.7
2.0
88
a
22 4
22 2
2.8 :
3.4 2
2.8 2
: 2
t 2 1
I 4 4
:
3.3 4 4 2
3.8
5.4
2.4
d
5 8
x 2
5.6 8 4 4
:
4’
4”
2.0 I 4 1 2
3.3 4 4 1 4
7.0 4 8 8 8
2.3 4 2
1.5 2 1
6.0 4
:
:
84
1.5
6.0 8
3.3 4
a
2 1
I.3
1.8
7.0
1 2
: 1 1
: I 1
: 8
1.3 I 1 1 2
3.8
3.5
a
2.0 2
4.0 4
:
: 4
t 2
2.8 4 2 4 1
6.3 8 4 4 1
2.8 2 4 2 1
2.5 4 2 2 2
4.5 4 2 t
1 2 2 1
6.0
4.0 4 4
5.0
6.0
4.0 4 4
2.0 2 2
a
4
a
a :
4
1
4.3
a
4 4 1 1.5 I 2
a
2
a
a
4
Nigeria has no industrial base, but at least it has oil. If Qadaffi keeps his mouth shut, and does not anger neighbouring Egypt, Morocco, and Algeria Libya will be all right. France, the USSR, West Germany, Canada, and the United Kingdom have some destabilising elements, but nothing really worrisome. Afghanistan is not unstable; it is going to be a Russian satellite. The Russians know they don’t have to go into the mountains to fight the Afghans, they only have to control the cities and the main road. The USA cannot send arms to the Afghan rebels. It is doubtful that the equipment would get through, and even if it did the Afghans have no organisation and no capability to use the kinds of complex weapons, eg antitank missiles, which the USA would send. Nuclear war is not a strong possibility in this century, because no one can afford reprisal. It is like nerve gas which was not used in World War 2.
FUTURES
Saudi South Arabia Korea
June 1980
265
a
a
4 4 4.0 4 4
8.0
7.0
2.5
t 8
1 a a
:
2.5 4 1 4 1
1.3
a
5.0
a
2 28 6.5
a a a 2
6.0 4
a
: : :
2.3 2 4 2 4
:
2.0 2 2
1.6 1 2
1.0
:
There are three things I don’t think any country will use: nuclear, fatal chemicals, and biological warfare (nonlethal gas probably would be used). If there is a land war with the Warsaw Pact in Europe, NATO would have no choice but to use nuclear tactical weapons, with the hope that this will not escalate to strategic nuclear warfare. The USA at the close of this century will resemble Sweden but with a catastrophic national health service, more social programmes, and no poor to speak of. In education, the teachers will be working only two days a weekthe kids will be home three days using an interactive TV or computer system where they will have some input. More people will be working at home because of computers. That will increase the divorce rate by the way-maybe quadruple it-because people can take each other in small doses, but 24 hours a day, 7 days a week is tough. In the energy arena, I see the USA
266
Report/Meetings
TABLE 2. NATIONAL New rank (19994999)
STABILITY
RATING%‘
Country
Original
India Israel Poland Zimbabwe Rhodesia Pakistan Yugoslavia South Africa
1: 15
rank (1977)
Most unsfable 2, B z 7
: :
Sph fly desfabilised 20 6
i%” Mexico China Brazil Nigeria Argentina
9 :; 1: 14 Some des~biiising 15
:2” 6 3 9
elements Libya Saudi Arabia France USSR
:: 18 Stable
~a~~d~any :: 21
UnitediKlngdom
Note: a Based on an analysis
of stability
using breeder reactors, because plutonium fuel is 80% recycled and increases our basic uranium fuel supply. The USA will become more stable, that is why the Saudis invest their petrodollars here. The USA is the best industrialised country to invest in for the next 10 years because it has: l
a smaller labour,
percentage
of unionised
and likely trends.
smaller fringe-benefit packages, 0 a lower wage rate, l a large market for consumer goods, 0 a comparatively low inflation rate, l good raw-materials availability, and l comparatively low energy and transport costs. l
In the long run there is no country stronger than the USA at present.
MEETINGS j%& Z&25,1980, Toronto, Canada THROUGH THE 8Os, inco~rating the fifth annual conference of the Canadian Association for Futures Studies and the third general assembly of the World Future Society. Enquiries: 1980 Conference Committee, World Future Society, 4916 St Elmo Avenue, W~hin~on, DC 20014, USA.
Aug& 2-9, 1980, Ha&& Wates Summer school on the SOCIAL CONTEXT OF ENERGY, organised by Science in a Social Context and the Science, Technology and Society Association. Enquiries: Jill Miller, Department of Liberal Studies in Science, University of Manchester, Manchester Ml3 9PL, UK.
July 22-25,1080, Cambridge, UK Fourth European congress on OPERATIONS RESEARCH. Enqtdiries: M. Shutler, EURO IV, Operational Research Society, Neville House, Waterloo Street, Birmingham B2 5TX, UK.
August 19-23, 1980, Geneva, Switzerland Conference on SIMULATION/GAMES in education, research, and decision making. Enql&ks : Dinah Goldberg, University of Geneva, FPSE 24, rue General Dufour, CH12 11 Geneva 4, Switzerland.
FUTURES
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