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Forecasting of Improved Straightforward Valves Technical Condition Using Fuzzy Inference Models
18th IFAC Conference on Technology, Culture and International Stability Stability 18th Conference on International Baku, Azerbaidschan, 13-15, 2018Culture 18th IFAC IFAC Conference Sept on Technology, Technology, Culture and and International Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Baku, Azerbaidschan, Sept 13-15, 2018 Stability Stability 18th IFAC Conference on Technology, Culture and International Baku, Azerbaidschan, Sept 13-15, 2018 Baku, Azerbaidschan, Sept 13-15, 2018 Stability Baku, Azerbaidschan, Sept 13-15, 2018
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IFAC PapersOnLine 51-30 (2018) 12–14 Forecasting Forecasting of of Improved Improved Straightforward Straightforward Valves Valves Technical Technical Condition Condition Using Using Fuzzy Fuzzy Forecasting of Improved Straightforward Valves Technical Condition Using Fuzzy Inference Models InferenceValves ModelsTechnical Condition Using Fuzzy Forecasting of Improved Straightforward Inference Models Aslanov Jamaladdin Nuraddin. Author*, Aslanov Inference Jamaladdin Nuraddin. ModelsAuthor*, Sultanova Axira Baxman. Author**
Aslanov Jamaladdin Nuraddin. Author*, Sultanova Axira Baxman. Author** Aslanov Jamaladdin Nuraddin. Author*, Sultanova Axira Baxman. Author** Aslanov Jamaladdin Nuraddin. Author*, Sultanova Axira Baxman. Author** Azerbaijan State Oil and Industry University Azerbaijan State Oil and Industry University Sultanova Axira Baxman. Author** az.1010 Azerbaijan, Baku, Avenue Azadlig, 20 Azerbaijan State and University az.1010 Azerbaijan, Baku, Avenue Azadlig, 20 Azerbaijan State Oil Oil and Industry Industry University *-Department "Oil-Gas Equipment", az.1010 Azerbaijan, Baku, Avenue Azadlig, 20 *-Department "Oil-Gas Equipment", Azerbaijan State OilBaku, and Industry University az.1010 Azerbaijan, Avenue Azadlig, 20 Dosent , Email :[email protected], *-Department "Oil-Gas Equipment", Dosent , Email :[email protected], az.1010 Azerbaijan, Baku, Avenue Azadlig, 20 *-Department "Oil-Gas Equipment", **-Department “Information Technology and Management”, Dosent ,, Email :[email protected], **-Department “Information Technology and Management”, *-Department "Oil-Gas Equipment", Dosent Email :[email protected], Dosent, Email: [email protected] **-Department “Information Technology and Dosent, Email::[email protected], [email protected] ** Dosent , Email **-Department “Information Technology and Management”, Management”, **Institute of Control Systems of ANAS Dosent, Email: [email protected] Institute of Control Systems of ANAS **-Department “Information Technology and Management”, Dosent, Email: [email protected] ** **Institute of Control Systems of ANAS Dosent, Email: [email protected] Institute of Control Systems of ANAS ** Abstract: The article is devoted to the prediction of failure and emergency condition during exploitation Institute of Control Systems of ANAS Abstract: The article is devoted to the prediction of failure and emergency condition during exploitation of a flow valves operating under high pressure. Therefore, to predict the probability of failure-free operation Abstract: The article is devoted to the prediction of and condition during exploitation of a flow valves operating under high pressure. Therefore, to predict the probability of failure-free operation Abstract: article the prediction of afailure failure and emergency emergency condition duringThe exploitation of the valveThe based on is thedevoted theory oftofuzzy pluralities, new model was proposed and solved. solution of aathe flow valves operating under high pressure. Therefore, to predict the probability of failure-free operation valve based on is thedevoted theory oftofuzzy pluralities, afailure new model was proposed and solved. The solution Abstract: The article the prediction of and emergency condition during exploitation of flow valves operating under high pressure. Therefore, to predict the probability of failure-free operation of the proposed model provides prediction of the reliability of the improved valve and with this method it of valve based on the theory of fuzzy pluralities, aa new model was proposed solved. The solution the proposed model provides prediction of the reliability of the improved valveand and with this method it a flow valves operating under high pressure. Therefore, to predict the probability of failure-free operation of valve based on the theory of fuzzy pluralities, new model was proposed and solved. The solution is possible to determine the prediction of the reliability of any valve construction. of the proposed model provides prediction of the reliability of the improved valve and with this method it is possible to determine the prediction of the reliability of any valve construction. valve based on the theory prediction of fuzzy pluralities, a new model was proposed Themethod solution of the proposed model provides of the reliability of the improved valveand andsolved. with this it Keywords: christmas tree, direct-flow valve, reliability, imperfect information, fuzzy model, fuzzy is possible to determine the prediction of the reliability of any valve construction. © 2018, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. of the proposed model provides prediction ofreliability thereliability, reliability of the improved valve andfuzzy with this method it is possible tochristmas determine the prediction of the of any valve construction. Keywords: tree, direct-flow valve, imperfect information, model, fuzzy plurality. is possible to determine the prediction of the reliability of any valve construction. Keywords: christmas tree, direct-flow valve, reliability, imperfect information, fuzzy model, fuzzy plurality. Keywords: christmas tree, direct-flow valve, reliability, imperfect information, fuzzy model, fuzzy plurality.1.INTRODUCTION. Keywords: christmas tree, direct-flow valve, reliability, information, fuzzy model, fuzzy plurality. Theimperfect risk of danger to human health, the environment and The risk of danger to human health, the environment and plurality.1.INTRODUCTION. objects is increasing 1.INTRODUCTION. The riskis of of danger to to human health, health, the environment environment and objects increasing 1.INTRODUCTION. The risk danger The existing predictionhuman methods do notthe allow to predict and the The current development of the oil and gas industry requires objects is of increasing existing prediction methods do notthe allow to predict and the The current development of the oil and gas industry requires 1.INTRODUCTION. The risk danger to human health, environment objects is increasing efficiency of a Christmas tree without stopping it during diagnostic control of the used equipment, maintenance and The existing prediction methods do not not allow allow to predict predict the efficiency ofprediction a Christmas tree without stopping it during The currentcontrol development of theequipment, oil and and gas gas maintenance industry requires requires diagnostic of the of used and objects is increasing The existing methods do to the The current development the oil industry exploitation. Taking this into account, we can say that the providing their technical safety. Systemic installation of the efficiency ofprediction a Christmas Christmas treeaccount, without stopping itthat during exploitation. Taking thismethods into we cantosay diagnostic control of the the safety. used equipment, maintenance and providing their technical Systemic installation of and the The existing do not allow predict the efficiency of a tree without stopping it during The current development of the oil and gas industry requires diagnostic control of used equipment, maintenance development of new prediction methods for the trouble-free equipment workflow requires the prediction of their exploitation. Taking this into into account, we can say that the development of new prediction methods for the say trouble-free providing their technical safety. Systemic installation oftheir the equipment workflow requires the prediction of of efficiency of a Christmas tree without stopping it during exploitation. Taking this account, we can that diagnostic control of the used equipment, maintenance and providing their technical safety. Systemic installation the operation of the Christmas tree is actual and this problemthe is reliability indicators. This kind of approach covering the development of new prediction methods for the trouble-free operation of the Christmas tree is actual and this problem is equipment workflow requires the prediction of their reliability indicators. This kind of approach covering the exploitation. thisthe intomethodology account, can say that the development of prediction methodswe forfor theprediction trouble-free providing their technical safety. Systemic installation oftheir equipment workflow the condition prediction of allows solved based Taking onnew setting its difficult processes of therequires exploitation also operation of the Christmas tree is actual and this problem is solved based on setting the methodology for prediction its reliability indicators. This kind of approach covering the difficult processes of the exploitation condition also allows development of new methods for the operation the Christmas tree is thistrouble-free problem equipment workflow requires the prediction their reliability indicators. This kind approach covering the individualofparts. Theprediction solution ofactual the and problem makes is it to obtain correct knowledge aboutof the external andofinternal solved based on setting the methodology for prediction its individual parts. The solution of the problem makes it difficult processes of the exploitation condition also allows to obtain correct knowledge about the external and internal operation of the Christmas tree is actual and this problem is solved on setting methodology for prediction its reliability indicators. Thisexploitation kind The of approach covering the difficult processes the condition also allows possiblebased to increase thethe efficiency and reliability of the factors affecting theofequipment. main feature of oil and individual parts. Thethe solution of the the problem makes it possiblebased to parts. increase efficiency andproblem reliability of the to obtain correct the knowledge about the external and internal factors affecting equipment. Thethe main feature ofinternal oil and solved on setting the methodology for prediction its individual The solution of makes it difficult processes of the exploitation condition also allows to obtain correct knowledge about external and Christmas tree, obtaining preliminary warning of wear and gas industry is the incomplete knowledge about oil and gas possible totree, increase the efficiency and reliability of and the Christmasto obtaining preliminary warning of wear factors affecting the equipment. Thethe main feature ofand oil and and gasobtain industry is the incomplete knowledge about oil gas individual parts. The solution of the problem makes it possible increase the efficiency and reliability of the to correct knowledge about external and internal factors affecting the equipment. The main feature of oil destruction of its knots and details, makes it possible to wells. The oil and gas production used in the industry, Christmas tree, obtaining preliminary warning ofpossible wear and destruction of its knots and details, and makes it of to gas industry is the the incomplete knowledge about oilofindustry, and gas wells. The oil and gas production used about in theoil possible to increase the efficiency reliability of the Christmas tree, obtaining preliminary warning wear and factors affecting the equipment. The main feature oil and gas industry is incomplete knowledge and gas improve the safety of the object and the efficiency of drilling and oil- refining equipment is exploited in undefined destruction ofsafety its knots and details,and makes itefficiency possible to improve the of the object the it of wells. The oil andincomplete gasequipment production used about in the the industry, drilling and oilrefining is exploited inoil undefined Christmas tree, obtaining preliminary warning ofpossible wear and gas industry is the knowledge and gas destruction of its knots and details, makes to wells. The oil and production used in industry, exploitation. difficult conditions, isgas subjected to various physicochemical improve the safety of the object and the efficiency of exploitation. drilling and oilrefining equipment is exploited in undefined difficult conditions, is subjected to various physicochemical destruction its knots andduring details, makes possible to wells. oil refining and gasacquire production used in the industry, improve safety of tree the object and the itefficiency of drilling and oilequipment exploited inabout undefined Failure ofthe theofChristmas the exploitation depends effects.The In many cases, full isinformation these exploitation. Failure ofthe the Christmas tree during the exploitation depends difficult conditions, is subjected subjected to various various physicochemical effects. In many cases, acquire full information about these improve safety of the object and the efficiency of drilling and oilrefining equipment is exploited in undefined exploitation. difficult conditions, is to physicochemical on the failure of its individual parts. Hence, to predict the processes is not possible and in undefined conditions the Failure of the the Christmas Christmas tree during during theHence, exploitation depends on the failure of its individual parts. to predict the effects. In many cases, acquire full information about these these processes is not cases, possible and in conditions the exploitation. difficult conditions, is subjected toundefined various physicochemical Failure of tree the exploitation depends effects. acquire full information about reliability of the Christmas tree during the exploitation, it is decisionIn is many forcedly made. on the failure of its individual parts. Hence, to predict the reliability of the Christmas tree during the exploitation, it is processes is not possible and in undefined conditions the decision is forcedly made. Failure of the Christmas tree during the exploitation depends effects. In is many acquire full information about on the failure of its individual parts. Hence, to predict processes not cases, possible undefined conditions the necessary to predict the failure-free probabilities of the its During the exploitation areand usedin Christmas trees (C.t.)-these they reliability of the Christmas tree parts. duringHence, the exploitation, itthe is necessary tothe predict the failure-free probabilities ofit its decision isisforcedly forcedly made. During the exploitation areand usedinChristmas trees (C.t.)- they on the failure of its individual to predict processes not possible undefined conditions the reliability of Christmas tree during the exploitation, is decision is made. individual parts and knots during the exploitation. control and manage the work of oil and gas wells, combines necessary tothe predict the during failure-free probabilities ofit its its individual of parts and knots the exploitation. During the exploitation are used Christmas trees (C.t.)they control the and manage made. the are work of oil and gas trees wells,(C.t.)combines reliability Christmas tree during the exploitation, is decision is forcedly necessary to predict the failure-free probabilities of During exploitation used Christmas they For this purpose, the article considers the problem of elements belonging to different manufacturers with different individual parts and the knots during the exploitation. exploitation. For this purpose, article considers the problem of control and manage to thedifferent work ofmanufacturers oil and gas gas trees wells, combines elementsthe belonging with different necessary to predict the failure-free probabilities of its During exploitation are used Christmas (C.t.)they individual parts and knots during the control and manage the work of oil and wells, combines reliability prediction of a gate valve, one of the main knots types and sizes. At present, about ten thousand Christmas For this purpose, purpose, the article considers the problem of reliability prediction of aarticle gate valve, one ofthe theproblem main knots elements belonging to different manufacturers withChristmas different types and sizes. At to present, about ten thousand individual partstree and(Аslanov, knots during theAslanov exploitation. control manage the work oil and gasThe wells, combines For this the considers elements belonging with different of a Christmas 2007; et al, 2017). of trees areand exploited in different oil andofmanufacturers gas wells. elements of reliability prediction of a gate valve, one of the main knots of a Christmas tree (Аslanov, 2007; Aslanov et al, 2017). types and sizes. At present, about ten thousand Christmas trees are exploited in oil and gas wells. The elements of For this purpose, considers of elements different manufacturers withdangerous different reliability prediction of aarticle gate onethe ofthe theproblem main knots types andbelonging sizes. present, about thousand Christmas The purpose of the the article is tovalve, predict failure position Christmas trees At areto complex andten potentially of a Christmas Christmas tree (Аslanov, 2007; Aslanov et al, al,main 2017). The purpose oftree the(Аslanov, article is 2007; tovalve, predict the failure position trees are exploited in oil and andabout gas wells. The elements elements of Christmas trees At arein complex andten potentially dangerous reliability prediction of a gate one of the knots of a Aslanov et 2017). types and sizes. present, thousand Christmas trees are exploited oil gas wells. The of and in case of emergency, taking into account the effect of technical devices. The reliability of these devices affects not The purpose ofemergency, the(Аslanov, article taking is 2007; to predict predict the failure failure position and case ofof into account the2017). effect of Christmas trees are are complex and potentially dangerous technical devices. The reliability of these devices affects not of a in Christmas tree Aslanov al, The purpose the article to the position trees areefficiency exploited in complex oil and gas Thebut elements Christmas trees and potentially dangerous exploited factors on the lockisknot operating inethigh-pressure only the and reliability ofwells. the well, also hasofa and in case of emergency, taking into account the effect of exploited factors on the lock knot operating in high-pressure technical devices. The reliability of these devices affects not only the efficiency and reliability of the well, but also has a The purpose of the article is to predict the failure position and in flowed case of valve emergency, into account effect of Christmas are complex potentially dangerous technical Theefficiency reliabilityand of these devices not direct based taking on mechanical weartheindicators. huge role devices. intrees the high and reliability of affects the whole exploited factors on the the locktaking knot operating in high-pressure high-pressure direct flowed valve based on mechanical wear indicators. only the efficiency and reliabilityand ofthese the well, well, but alsowhole has a huge the roleefficiency in the high efficiency reliability of affects the and in case of emergency, into account the effect of exploited factors on lock knot operating in technical devices. The reliability of devices not only and reliability of the but also has a The experiments show that in existing constructions of the enterprise (Babanlı, et al 2016). direct flowed valve based on mechanical wear indicators. The experiments show that in existing constructions of the huge roleefficiency in the high high efficiency and reliability of the the whole enterprise (Babanlı, etefficiency alreliability 2016). and exploited factors on the lock knot operating in high-pressure direct flowed valve based on mechanical wear indicators. only the and of the well, but also has a huge role in the reliability of whole valves, under the working pressure of the slide valve surface Currently, the Christmas trees work more than intended. To The experiments show thatpressure in existing existing constructions of the the valves, under the working of theconstructions slide valve surface enterprise (Babanlı, etefficiency al 2016). 2016). Currently, thethe Christmas trees work more than of intended. To direct flowed based on mechanical wear The experiments show in of huge roletheir in highet the whole enterprise (Babanlı, al and the saddlevalve effect arethat exposed to friction and indicators. corroding prolong exploitation life, and theyreliability are re-diagnosed. An valves, under the working pressure of friction theconstructions slideand valve surface and the saddlethe effect arethat exposed to corroding Currently, the Christmas Christmas trees work more than intended. An To prolong their exploitation life,work theymore are than re-diagnosed. The experiments show in existing of valves, under working pressure of the slide valve surface enterprise (Babanlı, et al 2016). Currently, the trees intended. To wear. And this increases the intensity of fatigue and agingthe of obtained analysis of the statistical conclusions shows that, and the saddle effect arethe exposed to friction and corroding wear. And thisthe increases intensity andcorroding aging of prolong their exploitation life, they are re-diagnosed. An obtained analysis of the trees statistical conclusions shows that, valves, under working pressure of of thefatigue slideand valve surface and the saddle effect are exposed friction Currently, the Christmas work more than intended. To prolong their exploitation life, they are re-diagnosed. An the material of the knots and parts. to after prolonged exploitation (very cold or hot weather wear. And this increases the intensity of fatigue and aging of the material of the knots and parts. obtained analysis of the statistical conclusions shows that, after prolonged exploitation (very cold or hot weather and the saddle effectcertain arethe exposed to of friction and wear. And this increases intensity fatigue andcorroding aging of prolong their life, inthey are re-diagnosed. An obtained analysis statistical conclusions that, Taking into account requirements, we have designed conditions) dueexploitation to of thethe decrease plasticity and shows cracking of the material of the knots and parts. Taking into account certain requirements, we have designed after prolonged exploitation (very cold or hot weather conditions) due to the decrease in plasticity and cracking of wear. And this increases of fatigue and aging of the material of the knots the and obtained analysis of statistical shows aftermetal prolonged (veryconclusions coldefficiency or hot weather an improved construction of intensity aparts. direct-flow the knots exploitation andthecomponents the of that, the Taking into account account certain requirements, we have have designed designed an improved construction ofrequirements, aparts. direct-flow we conditions) due toexploitation the decrease decrease in plasticity plasticity andhot cracking of the metal knots and components the efficiency of the the material of the knots and Taking into certain after prolonged or weather conditions) duedecreases, to the in and cracking of Christmas tree and it(very makescold a danger in the work. an improved improved construction ofrequirements, direct-flow we have designed the knots components the efficiency the Christmas and it in makes a danger theof Taking into account certain an construction of aa direct-flow conditions) duedecreases, to and the decrease plasticity and in cracking of the metal metal tree knots and components the efficiency ofwork. the Christmas decreases, and it it makes makesthe danger in the theofwork. work. an improved construction of a direct-flow the metal tree knots and components efficiency the Christmas tree decreases, and aa danger in Christmas©tree and it makes a danger in the work. 12 Copyright 2018decreases, IFAC 2405-8963 © IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Copyright © 2018, 2018 IFAC 12 Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Peer review©under responsibility of International Federation of Automatic Control. Copyright 12 Copyright © 2018 2018 IFAC IFAC 12 10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.11.236 Copyright © 2018 IFAC 12
IFAC TECIS 2018 Baku, Azerbaidschan, Sept 13-15, 2018 Aslanov Jamaladdin Nuraddin et al. / IFAC PapersOnLine 51-30 (2018) 12–14
gate valve to prevent formation and increase of corrosive corrosion, and the research was conducted on these valves Аslanov ,2007; Аslanov , 2014). The article considers the prediction problem of reliability over the improved construction of a gate valve based on the theory of fuzzy sets using fuzzy variables. The offered solution method can be applied to all valves.
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reliability (probability of failure-free operation). These parameters were given in the Table 1 and Table 2. Table 1.
2.SOLUTION OF THE PROBLEM Fuzzy sets are widely used for modeling complex nonlinear, fuzzy object. In fuzzy modeling’s, the contact between object parameters is replaced with reliability. These relations are expressed by linguistics rules using the experimental input and output data of the object (Kaufmann et al; 1988, Zadeh 1974). To solve the problem by the offered method, the following stages of logical extraction are conducted (Dubois, 1988; Leonenkov, 2005): 1. Fuzzy data (fuzzification) is formed. For each fuzzy, the compatible term membership function is calculated: (1) 𝜇𝜇 𝑇𝑇 (𝑇𝑇0 ), 𝜇𝜇𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 (𝑆𝑆0 ), 𝜇𝜇𝑀𝑀 (𝑀𝑀0 ), 𝜇𝜇𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾 (𝐾𝐾0 ) 2. The membership function is compatible with the input signals: 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 = 𝜇𝜇 𝑇𝑇𝑖𝑖 (𝑇𝑇0 ) ∩ 𝜇𝜇𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑖 (𝑆𝑆0 ) ∩ 𝜇𝜇𝑀𝑀𝑖𝑖 (𝑀𝑀0 ) ∩ 𝜇𝜇𝐾𝐾𝑖𝑖 (𝐾𝐾0 ) (2) Compatible for each rule is calculated final membership function: (3) 𝜇𝜇𝑖𝑖 (𝑧𝑧) = 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 ∩ 𝜇𝜇𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑖 (𝑧𝑧0 ) 3. For all input variable sets fuzzy composition rules, is defined the membership function: (4) 𝜇𝜇∑ (𝑧𝑧) = 𝜇𝜇1 (𝑧𝑧) ∪ 𝜇𝜇1 (𝑧𝑧) ∪ 𝜇𝜇1 (𝑧𝑧) ∪ 𝜇𝜇1 (𝑧𝑧) 4. Conclusions are de-fuzzificated: For making a model, expert information is necessary to formulate the information. Expert information is shown in the system of conditional fuzzy conclusions form, in this example together "linguistic" variables are used with the variable numbers. Linguistic variables are given in a general form 〈𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖, 𝑇𝑇(𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 ), 𝑈𝑈, 𝐺𝐺, 𝑀𝑀〉 , here 𝑇𝑇(𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 ) - is the term set of 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 , that is, the set of names of linguistic values of 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 with each value being a fuzzy number defined on U; G is a syntactic rule for generating the 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 ; and M is a semantic rule for names of values of associating with each value its meaning. The family of all fuzzy (sub)sets in U is denoted by F(U). Simple relations between variables are described using fuzzy considerations. Let us assume that the input parameters ( 𝑋𝑋 = {𝑥𝑥1 , 𝑥𝑥2 , 𝑥𝑥3 } ) and output parameters are given in the form (𝑌𝑌 = {𝑦𝑦1 } ). Then 𝑌𝑌̃ =𝑓𝑓̃(𝑥𝑥̃1 , 𝑥𝑥̃2 , 𝑥𝑥̃3 ) (6) For this given task (6), the set of product rules "IF-THEN" will be defined. The offered model is shown below: ̅̅̅̅, 1,3, 𝑗𝑗 = 1,9 Rule: IF 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 is 𝐴𝐴𝑗𝑗 , THEN 𝑦𝑦 = 𝐵𝐵𝑘𝑘 , 𝑖𝑖 = ̅̅̅̅ 𝑘𝑘 = ̅̅̅̅̅̅ 1,27 Having in view of the foregoing, 3 input variables are taken for the solution of the problem - the cycle of opening and closing the valve, non-flatness and unevenness of the contact surfaces, but in the form of output variables-
Input variables
№
Input parameters
Less
Normal
much
1
Valve cycle- x1
[0, 185, 250] [0.03, 0.04, 0.05]
[235 410 435] [0.05, 0.06, 0.065]
[435 455 500] [0.065, 0.07, 0.75]
[0.080, 0.125, 0.185]
[0.185, 0.225, 0.30]
[0.30, 0.32, 0.325]
2
3
nonflatness x2
-
Unevenness - x3
Table 2. Output variables №
Output variables
Linguistic values of output variables Lower Normal Highe r
1
Reliability- y1
[0.704,
[0.796,
[0.93,
0.752,
0.86,
0.98,
0.796]
0.93]
1.0]
Table 3. Nominal values of variables №
Input parameters
1
valve cycle - x1
2 3
non-flatness - x2 unevenness -
x3
Normal values of variables [0 500] [0.03 0.07] [0.08 0.32]
The nominal values of the input parameters were given in the Table 3 During solving the problem, the fuzzy variable value was used, therefore for each variable linguistic term are used. Rule 1: IF the gate cycle is smaller, the non-flatness is smaller, the unevenness is smaller, THEN reliability is increased. Rule 2: IF the gate cycle is smaller, the nonflatness is normal, the unevenness is more, THEN - the reliability is normal. Rule 3: IF the unevenness is normal, the valve cycle is normal, the non-flatness is normal, THEN - the reliability is normal. Rule 4: IF the unevenness is normal, the gate cycle is large, the non-flatness is large, THEN reliability is lowered
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IFAC TECIS 2018 14 Aslanov Jamaladdin Nuraddin et al. / IFAC PapersOnLine 51-30 (2018) 12–14 Baku, Azerbaidschan, Sept 13-15, 2018
Rule 27: (There are 27 rules in the information base.) The MATLAB / task was implemented using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox and the conclusions were obtained. Analysis of the findings shows that, depending on the closing and opening of the valve on the contacting working surfaces, such indices of unevenness and non- flatness reliability are created, which at this time the system has the highest reliability. Obtained from MATLAB package 𝑥𝑥3 =0.128; 𝑌𝑌 = 0.932 𝑥𝑥1 = 249: 𝑥𝑥2 = 0.0521; Proves this (Fig.1 and Fig.2). This kind of system approach to solving problems allows controlling the reliability indicators of the gate valve to predict the failure probability. Using neuro-technics, you can determine the accuracy and adequacy of the model.
and applications. Academic Press, New York. Kaufmann A., Gupta M. (1988) Fuzzy mathematical models in engineering and management science. NorthHolland, Amsterdam. Leonenkov A. V. (2003). Necetkoe modelirovanie v srede MATLAB i fuzzy TECH. P. 719, SPb.: BKV Peterburgs Zadeh L.A. (1974) The Concept of a Linguistic Variable and its Application to Approximate Reasoning. New York: American Elsevier Publishing Company. Appendix A. SIMULATION RESULTS The obtained conclusions from the MATLAB package
3.CONCLUSIONS 3.1 The new model was offered to predict the probability of failure-free operation of the valve based on the theory of fuzzy sets. 3.2 The solution of the offered model provides prediction of the reliability of the improved valve and can be determined with this method predicting the reliability (probability of failure-free operation) of any valve constructions. RESULT As a result systematical approach style of valves reliability indicators control prediction created to provide failure free work of valves. In this model, it can be determined accuracy and adequacy of this model by using Nero techniques.
Fig.1. Graphical indicators
REFERENCES Аslanov J.N. (2007) Directly flew plug valve, State Standardization Metrology Agency for Patent, № а20040056, Baku. Аslanov J.N., (2014) Series produced by the shield-saddle bridge valves obstructive structures for improved wear resistance tested in pairs and strategy of the gate valves’ gates. Program methodology. AZİNMAŞ, Bakı. Aslanov J.N., Mammadov KH.S. (2017) Increasing reliability of the improved machines and equipment. determination of productivity criteria. Bulletin of Environment, Pharmacology and Life Sciences,Academy for Environment and Life Sciences, Vol 7(1), Pp.(55-58). Aslanov J.N. (2017) Valve, Useful model. State Standardization Metrology Agency for Patent, № U 2016 0018, Official bulleten №7, Baku. Babanlı M.B., Mamedov G.A, Aslanov J.N., (2016) Increasing reliability of the improved machines and equipment. determination of productivity criteria, Bulletin of Environment, Pharmacology and Life Sciences,Academy for Environment and Life Sciences, Vol 5(12), Pp.(95-98). Dubois D., Prade H. (1980) Fuzzy sets and systems: theory
Fig.2. The curve reliability unevennesses formed from wear
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dependency
from
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IFAC PapersOnLine 51-30 (2018) 12–14 Forecasting Forecasting of of Improved Improved Straightforward Straightforward Valves Valves Technical Technical Condition Condition Using Using Fuzzy Fuzzy Forecasting of Improved Straightforward Valves Technical Condition Using Fuzzy Inference Models InferenceValves ModelsTechnical Condition Using Fuzzy Forecasting of Improved Straightforward Inference Models Aslanov Jamaladdin Nuraddin. Author*, Aslanov Inference Jamaladdin Nuraddin. ModelsAuthor*, Sultanova Axira Baxman. Author**
Aslanov Jamaladdin Nuraddin. Author*, Sultanova Axira Baxman. Author** Aslanov Jamaladdin Nuraddin. Author*, Sultanova Axira Baxman. Author** Aslanov Jamaladdin Nuraddin. Author*, Sultanova Axira Baxman. Author** Azerbaijan State Oil and Industry University Azerbaijan State Oil and Industry University Sultanova Axira Baxman. Author** az.1010 Azerbaijan, Baku, Avenue Azadlig, 20 Azerbaijan State and University az.1010 Azerbaijan, Baku, Avenue Azadlig, 20 Azerbaijan State Oil Oil and Industry Industry University *-Department "Oil-Gas Equipment", az.1010 Azerbaijan, Baku, Avenue Azadlig, 20 *-Department "Oil-Gas Equipment", Azerbaijan State OilBaku, and Industry University az.1010 Azerbaijan, Avenue Azadlig, 20 Dosent , Email :[email protected], *-Department "Oil-Gas Equipment", Dosent , Email :[email protected], az.1010 Azerbaijan, Baku, Avenue Azadlig, 20 *-Department "Oil-Gas Equipment", **-Department “Information Technology and Management”, Dosent ,, Email :[email protected], **-Department “Information Technology and Management”, *-Department "Oil-Gas Equipment", Dosent Email :[email protected], Dosent, Email: [email protected] **-Department “Information Technology and Dosent, Email::[email protected], [email protected] ** Dosent , Email **-Department “Information Technology and Management”, Management”, **Institute of Control Systems of ANAS Dosent, Email: [email protected] Institute of Control Systems of ANAS **-Department “Information Technology and Management”, Dosent, Email: [email protected] ** **Institute of Control Systems of ANAS Dosent, Email: [email protected] Institute of Control Systems of ANAS ** Abstract: The article is devoted to the prediction of failure and emergency condition during exploitation Institute of Control Systems of ANAS Abstract: The article is devoted to the prediction of failure and emergency condition during exploitation of a flow valves operating under high pressure. Therefore, to predict the probability of failure-free operation Abstract: The article is devoted to the prediction of and condition during exploitation of a flow valves operating under high pressure. Therefore, to predict the probability of failure-free operation Abstract: article the prediction of afailure failure and emergency emergency condition duringThe exploitation of the valveThe based on is thedevoted theory oftofuzzy pluralities, new model was proposed and solved. solution of aathe flow valves operating under high pressure. Therefore, to predict the probability of failure-free operation valve based on is thedevoted theory oftofuzzy pluralities, afailure new model was proposed and solved. The solution Abstract: The article the prediction of and emergency condition during exploitation of flow valves operating under high pressure. Therefore, to predict the probability of failure-free operation of the proposed model provides prediction of the reliability of the improved valve and with this method it of valve based on the theory of fuzzy pluralities, aa new model was proposed solved. The solution the proposed model provides prediction of the reliability of the improved valveand and with this method it a flow valves operating under high pressure. Therefore, to predict the probability of failure-free operation of valve based on the theory of fuzzy pluralities, new model was proposed and solved. The solution is possible to determine the prediction of the reliability of any valve construction. of the proposed model provides prediction of the reliability of the improved valve and with this method it is possible to determine the prediction of the reliability of any valve construction. valve based on the theory prediction of fuzzy pluralities, a new model was proposed Themethod solution of the proposed model provides of the reliability of the improved valveand andsolved. with this it Keywords: christmas tree, direct-flow valve, reliability, imperfect information, fuzzy model, fuzzy is possible to determine the prediction of the reliability of any valve construction. © 2018, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. of the proposed model provides prediction ofreliability thereliability, reliability of the improved valve andfuzzy with this method it is possible tochristmas determine the prediction of the of any valve construction. Keywords: tree, direct-flow valve, imperfect information, model, fuzzy plurality. is possible to determine the prediction of the reliability of any valve construction. Keywords: christmas tree, direct-flow valve, reliability, imperfect information, fuzzy model, fuzzy plurality. Keywords: christmas tree, direct-flow valve, reliability, imperfect information, fuzzy model, fuzzy plurality.1.INTRODUCTION. Keywords: christmas tree, direct-flow valve, reliability, information, fuzzy model, fuzzy plurality. Theimperfect risk of danger to human health, the environment and The risk of danger to human health, the environment and plurality.1.INTRODUCTION. objects is increasing 1.INTRODUCTION. The riskis of of danger to to human health, health, the environment environment and objects increasing 1.INTRODUCTION. The risk danger The existing predictionhuman methods do notthe allow to predict and the The current development of the oil and gas industry requires objects is of increasing existing prediction methods do notthe allow to predict and the The current development of the oil and gas industry requires 1.INTRODUCTION. The risk danger to human health, environment objects is increasing efficiency of a Christmas tree without stopping it during diagnostic control of the used equipment, maintenance and The existing prediction methods do not not allow allow to predict predict the efficiency ofprediction a Christmas tree without stopping it during The currentcontrol development of theequipment, oil and and gas gas maintenance industry requires requires diagnostic of the of used and objects is increasing The existing methods do to the The current development the oil industry exploitation. Taking this into account, we can say that the providing their technical safety. Systemic installation of the efficiency ofprediction a Christmas Christmas treeaccount, without stopping itthat during exploitation. Taking thismethods into we cantosay diagnostic control of the the safety. used equipment, maintenance and providing their technical Systemic installation of and the The existing do not allow predict the efficiency of a tree without stopping it during The current development of the oil and gas industry requires diagnostic control of used equipment, maintenance development of new prediction methods for the trouble-free equipment workflow requires the prediction of their exploitation. Taking this into into account, we can say that the development of new prediction methods for the say trouble-free providing their technical safety. Systemic installation oftheir the equipment workflow requires the prediction of of efficiency of a Christmas tree without stopping it during exploitation. Taking this account, we can that diagnostic control of the used equipment, maintenance and providing their technical safety. Systemic installation the operation of the Christmas tree is actual and this problemthe is reliability indicators. This kind of approach covering the development of new prediction methods for the trouble-free operation of the Christmas tree is actual and this problem is equipment workflow requires the prediction of their reliability indicators. This kind of approach covering the exploitation. thisthe intomethodology account, can say that the development of prediction methodswe forfor theprediction trouble-free providing their technical safety. Systemic installation oftheir equipment workflow the condition prediction of allows solved based Taking onnew setting its difficult processes of therequires exploitation also operation of the Christmas tree is actual and this problem is solved based on setting the methodology for prediction its reliability indicators. This kind of approach covering the difficult processes of the exploitation condition also allows development of new methods for the operation the Christmas tree is thistrouble-free problem equipment workflow requires the prediction their reliability indicators. This kind approach covering the individualofparts. Theprediction solution ofactual the and problem makes is it to obtain correct knowledge aboutof the external andofinternal solved based on setting the methodology for prediction its individual parts. The solution of the problem makes it difficult processes of the exploitation condition also allows to obtain correct knowledge about the external and internal operation of the Christmas tree is actual and this problem is solved on setting methodology for prediction its reliability indicators. Thisexploitation kind The of approach covering the difficult processes the condition also allows possiblebased to increase thethe efficiency and reliability of the factors affecting theofequipment. main feature of oil and individual parts. Thethe solution of the the problem makes it possiblebased to parts. increase efficiency andproblem reliability of the to obtain correct the knowledge about the external and internal factors affecting equipment. Thethe main feature ofinternal oil and solved on setting the methodology for prediction its individual The solution of makes it difficult processes of the exploitation condition also allows to obtain correct knowledge about external and Christmas tree, obtaining preliminary warning of wear and gas industry is the incomplete knowledge about oil and gas possible totree, increase the efficiency and reliability of and the Christmasto obtaining preliminary warning of wear factors affecting the equipment. Thethe main feature ofand oil and and gasobtain industry is the incomplete knowledge about oil gas individual parts. The solution of the problem makes it possible increase the efficiency and reliability of the to correct knowledge about external and internal factors affecting the equipment. The main feature of oil destruction of its knots and details, makes it possible to wells. The oil and gas production used in the industry, Christmas tree, obtaining preliminary warning ofpossible wear and destruction of its knots and details, and makes it of to gas industry is the the incomplete knowledge about oilofindustry, and gas wells. The oil and gas production used about in theoil possible to increase the efficiency reliability of the Christmas tree, obtaining preliminary warning wear and factors affecting the equipment. The main feature oil and gas industry is incomplete knowledge and gas improve the safety of the object and the efficiency of drilling and oil- refining equipment is exploited in undefined destruction ofsafety its knots and details,and makes itefficiency possible to improve the of the object the it of wells. The oil andincomplete gasequipment production used about in the the industry, drilling and oilrefining is exploited inoil undefined Christmas tree, obtaining preliminary warning ofpossible wear and gas industry is the knowledge and gas destruction of its knots and details, makes to wells. The oil and production used in industry, exploitation. difficult conditions, isgas subjected to various physicochemical improve the safety of the object and the efficiency of exploitation. drilling and oilrefining equipment is exploited in undefined difficult conditions, is subjected to various physicochemical destruction its knots andduring details, makes possible to wells. oil refining and gasacquire production used in the industry, improve safety of tree the object and the itefficiency of drilling and oilequipment exploited inabout undefined Failure ofthe theofChristmas the exploitation depends effects.The In many cases, full isinformation these exploitation. Failure ofthe the Christmas tree during the exploitation depends difficult conditions, is subjected subjected to various various physicochemical effects. In many cases, acquire full information about these improve safety of the object and the efficiency of drilling and oilrefining equipment is exploited in undefined exploitation. difficult conditions, is to physicochemical on the failure of its individual parts. Hence, to predict the processes is not possible and in undefined conditions the Failure of the the Christmas Christmas tree during during theHence, exploitation depends on the failure of its individual parts. to predict the effects. In many cases, acquire full information about these these processes is not cases, possible and in conditions the exploitation. difficult conditions, is subjected toundefined various physicochemical Failure of tree the exploitation depends effects. acquire full information about reliability of the Christmas tree during the exploitation, it is decisionIn is many forcedly made. on the failure of its individual parts. Hence, to predict the reliability of the Christmas tree during the exploitation, it is processes is not possible and in undefined conditions the decision is forcedly made. Failure of the Christmas tree during the exploitation depends effects. In is many acquire full information about on the failure of its individual parts. Hence, to predict processes not cases, possible undefined conditions the necessary to predict the failure-free probabilities of the its During the exploitation areand usedin Christmas trees (C.t.)-these they reliability of the Christmas tree parts. duringHence, the exploitation, itthe is necessary tothe predict the failure-free probabilities ofit its decision isisforcedly forcedly made. During the exploitation areand usedinChristmas trees (C.t.)- they on the failure of its individual to predict processes not possible undefined conditions the reliability of Christmas tree during the exploitation, is decision is made. individual parts and knots during the exploitation. control and manage the work of oil and gas wells, combines necessary tothe predict the during failure-free probabilities ofit its its individual of parts and knots the exploitation. During the exploitation are used Christmas trees (C.t.)they control the and manage made. the are work of oil and gas trees wells,(C.t.)combines reliability Christmas tree during the exploitation, is decision is forcedly necessary to predict the failure-free probabilities of During exploitation used Christmas they For this purpose, the article considers the problem of elements belonging to different manufacturers with different individual parts and the knots during the exploitation. exploitation. For this purpose, article considers the problem of control and manage to thedifferent work ofmanufacturers oil and gas gas trees wells, combines elementsthe belonging with different necessary to predict the failure-free probabilities of its During exploitation are used Christmas (C.t.)they individual parts and knots during the control and manage the work of oil and wells, combines reliability prediction of a gate valve, one of the main knots types and sizes. At present, about ten thousand Christmas For this purpose, purpose, the article considers the problem of reliability prediction of aarticle gate valve, one ofthe theproblem main knots elements belonging to different manufacturers withChristmas different types and sizes. At to present, about ten thousand individual partstree and(Аslanov, knots during theAslanov exploitation. control manage the work oil and gasThe wells, combines For this the considers elements belonging with different of a Christmas 2007; et al, 2017). of trees areand exploited in different oil andofmanufacturers gas wells. elements of reliability prediction of a gate valve, one of the main knots of a Christmas tree (Аslanov, 2007; Aslanov et al, 2017). types and sizes. At present, about ten thousand Christmas trees are exploited in oil and gas wells. The elements of For this purpose, considers of elements different manufacturers withdangerous different reliability prediction of aarticle gate onethe ofthe theproblem main knots types andbelonging sizes. present, about thousand Christmas The purpose of the the article is tovalve, predict failure position Christmas trees At areto complex andten potentially of a Christmas Christmas tree (Аslanov, 2007; Aslanov et al, al,main 2017). The purpose oftree the(Аslanov, article is 2007; tovalve, predict the failure position trees are exploited in oil and andabout gas wells. The elements elements of Christmas trees At arein complex andten potentially dangerous reliability prediction of a gate one of the knots of a Aslanov et 2017). types and sizes. present, thousand Christmas trees are exploited oil gas wells. The of and in case of emergency, taking into account the effect of technical devices. The reliability of these devices affects not The purpose ofemergency, the(Аslanov, article taking is 2007; to predict predict the failure failure position and case ofof into account the2017). effect of Christmas trees are are complex and potentially dangerous technical devices. The reliability of these devices affects not of a in Christmas tree Aslanov al, The purpose the article to the position trees areefficiency exploited in complex oil and gas Thebut elements Christmas trees and potentially dangerous exploited factors on the lockisknot operating inethigh-pressure only the and reliability ofwells. the well, also hasofa and in case of emergency, taking into account the effect of exploited factors on the lock knot operating in high-pressure technical devices. The reliability of these devices affects not only the efficiency and reliability of the well, but also has a The purpose of the article is to predict the failure position and in flowed case of valve emergency, into account effect of Christmas are complex potentially dangerous technical Theefficiency reliabilityand of these devices not direct based taking on mechanical weartheindicators. huge role devices. intrees the high and reliability of affects the whole exploited factors on the the locktaking knot operating in high-pressure high-pressure direct flowed valve based on mechanical wear indicators. only the efficiency and reliabilityand ofthese the well, well, but alsowhole has a huge the roleefficiency in the high efficiency reliability of affects the and in case of emergency, into account the effect of exploited factors on lock knot operating in technical devices. The reliability of devices not only and reliability of the but also has a The experiments show that in existing constructions of the enterprise (Babanlı, et al 2016). direct flowed valve based on mechanical wear indicators. The experiments show that in existing constructions of the huge roleefficiency in the high high efficiency and reliability of the the whole enterprise (Babanlı, etefficiency alreliability 2016). and exploited factors on the lock knot operating in high-pressure direct flowed valve based on mechanical wear indicators. only the and of the well, but also has a huge role in the reliability of whole valves, under the working pressure of the slide valve surface Currently, the Christmas trees work more than intended. To The experiments show thatpressure in existing existing constructions of the the valves, under the working of theconstructions slide valve surface enterprise (Babanlı, etefficiency al 2016). 2016). Currently, thethe Christmas trees work more than of intended. To direct flowed based on mechanical wear The experiments show in of huge roletheir in highet the whole enterprise (Babanlı, al and the saddlevalve effect arethat exposed to friction and indicators. corroding prolong exploitation life, and theyreliability are re-diagnosed. An valves, under the working pressure of friction theconstructions slideand valve surface and the saddlethe effect arethat exposed to corroding Currently, the Christmas Christmas trees work more than intended. An To prolong their exploitation life,work theymore are than re-diagnosed. The experiments show in existing of valves, under working pressure of the slide valve surface enterprise (Babanlı, et al 2016). Currently, the trees intended. To wear. And this increases the intensity of fatigue and agingthe of obtained analysis of the statistical conclusions shows that, and the saddle effect arethe exposed to friction and corroding wear. And thisthe increases intensity andcorroding aging of prolong their exploitation life, they are re-diagnosed. An obtained analysis of the trees statistical conclusions shows that, valves, under working pressure of of thefatigue slideand valve surface and the saddle effect are exposed friction Currently, the Christmas work more than intended. To prolong their exploitation life, they are re-diagnosed. An the material of the knots and parts. to after prolonged exploitation (very cold or hot weather wear. And this increases the intensity of fatigue and aging of the material of the knots and parts. obtained analysis of the statistical conclusions shows that, after prolonged exploitation (very cold or hot weather and the saddle effectcertain arethe exposed to of friction and wear. And this increases intensity fatigue andcorroding aging of prolong their life, inthey are re-diagnosed. An obtained analysis statistical conclusions that, Taking into account requirements, we have designed conditions) dueexploitation to of thethe decrease plasticity and shows cracking of the material of the knots and parts. Taking into account certain requirements, we have designed after prolonged exploitation (very cold or hot weather conditions) due to the decrease in plasticity and cracking of wear. And this increases of fatigue and aging of the material of the knots the and obtained analysis of statistical shows aftermetal prolonged (veryconclusions coldefficiency or hot weather an improved construction of intensity aparts. direct-flow the knots exploitation andthecomponents the of that, the Taking into account account certain requirements, we have have designed designed an improved construction ofrequirements, aparts. direct-flow we conditions) due toexploitation the decrease decrease in plasticity plasticity andhot cracking of the metal knots and components the efficiency of the the material of the knots and Taking into certain after prolonged or weather conditions) duedecreases, to the in and cracking of Christmas tree and it(very makescold a danger in the work. an improved improved construction ofrequirements, direct-flow we have designed the knots components the efficiency the Christmas and it in makes a danger theof Taking into account certain an construction of aa direct-flow conditions) duedecreases, to and the decrease plasticity and in cracking of the metal metal tree knots and components the efficiency ofwork. the Christmas decreases, and it it makes makesthe danger in the theofwork. work. an improved construction of a direct-flow the metal tree knots and components efficiency the Christmas tree decreases, and aa danger in Christmas©tree and it makes a danger in the work. 12 Copyright 2018decreases, IFAC 2405-8963 © IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Copyright © 2018, 2018 IFAC 12 Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Peer review©under responsibility of International Federation of Automatic Control. Copyright 12 Copyright © 2018 2018 IFAC IFAC 12 10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.11.236 Copyright © 2018 IFAC 12
IFAC TECIS 2018 Baku, Azerbaidschan, Sept 13-15, 2018 Aslanov Jamaladdin Nuraddin et al. / IFAC PapersOnLine 51-30 (2018) 12–14
gate valve to prevent formation and increase of corrosive corrosion, and the research was conducted on these valves Аslanov ,2007; Аslanov , 2014). The article considers the prediction problem of reliability over the improved construction of a gate valve based on the theory of fuzzy sets using fuzzy variables. The offered solution method can be applied to all valves.
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reliability (probability of failure-free operation). These parameters were given in the Table 1 and Table 2. Table 1.
2.SOLUTION OF THE PROBLEM Fuzzy sets are widely used for modeling complex nonlinear, fuzzy object. In fuzzy modeling’s, the contact between object parameters is replaced with reliability. These relations are expressed by linguistics rules using the experimental input and output data of the object (Kaufmann et al; 1988, Zadeh 1974). To solve the problem by the offered method, the following stages of logical extraction are conducted (Dubois, 1988; Leonenkov, 2005): 1. Fuzzy data (fuzzification) is formed. For each fuzzy, the compatible term membership function is calculated: (1) 𝜇𝜇 𝑇𝑇 (𝑇𝑇0 ), 𝜇𝜇𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 (𝑆𝑆0 ), 𝜇𝜇𝑀𝑀 (𝑀𝑀0 ), 𝜇𝜇𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾 (𝐾𝐾0 ) 2. The membership function is compatible with the input signals: 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 = 𝜇𝜇 𝑇𝑇𝑖𝑖 (𝑇𝑇0 ) ∩ 𝜇𝜇𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑖𝑖 (𝑆𝑆0 ) ∩ 𝜇𝜇𝑀𝑀𝑖𝑖 (𝑀𝑀0 ) ∩ 𝜇𝜇𝐾𝐾𝑖𝑖 (𝐾𝐾0 ) (2) Compatible for each rule is calculated final membership function: (3) 𝜇𝜇𝑖𝑖 (𝑧𝑧) = 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 ∩ 𝜇𝜇𝑐𝑐𝑖𝑖 (𝑧𝑧0 ) 3. For all input variable sets fuzzy composition rules, is defined the membership function: (4) 𝜇𝜇∑ (𝑧𝑧) = 𝜇𝜇1 (𝑧𝑧) ∪ 𝜇𝜇1 (𝑧𝑧) ∪ 𝜇𝜇1 (𝑧𝑧) ∪ 𝜇𝜇1 (𝑧𝑧) 4. Conclusions are de-fuzzificated: For making a model, expert information is necessary to formulate the information. Expert information is shown in the system of conditional fuzzy conclusions form, in this example together "linguistic" variables are used with the variable numbers. Linguistic variables are given in a general form 〈𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖, 𝑇𝑇(𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 ), 𝑈𝑈, 𝐺𝐺, 𝑀𝑀〉 , here 𝑇𝑇(𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 ) - is the term set of 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 , that is, the set of names of linguistic values of 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 with each value being a fuzzy number defined on U; G is a syntactic rule for generating the 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 ; and M is a semantic rule for names of values of associating with each value its meaning. The family of all fuzzy (sub)sets in U is denoted by F(U). Simple relations between variables are described using fuzzy considerations. Let us assume that the input parameters ( 𝑋𝑋 = {𝑥𝑥1 , 𝑥𝑥2 , 𝑥𝑥3 } ) and output parameters are given in the form (𝑌𝑌 = {𝑦𝑦1 } ). Then 𝑌𝑌̃ =𝑓𝑓̃(𝑥𝑥̃1 , 𝑥𝑥̃2 , 𝑥𝑥̃3 ) (6) For this given task (6), the set of product rules "IF-THEN" will be defined. The offered model is shown below: ̅̅̅̅, 1,3, 𝑗𝑗 = 1,9 Rule: IF 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 is 𝐴𝐴𝑗𝑗 , THEN 𝑦𝑦 = 𝐵𝐵𝑘𝑘 , 𝑖𝑖 = ̅̅̅̅ 𝑘𝑘 = ̅̅̅̅̅̅ 1,27 Having in view of the foregoing, 3 input variables are taken for the solution of the problem - the cycle of opening and closing the valve, non-flatness and unevenness of the contact surfaces, but in the form of output variables-
Input variables
№
Input parameters
Less
Normal
much
1
Valve cycle- x1
[0, 185, 250] [0.03, 0.04, 0.05]
[235 410 435] [0.05, 0.06, 0.065]
[435 455 500] [0.065, 0.07, 0.75]
[0.080, 0.125, 0.185]
[0.185, 0.225, 0.30]
[0.30, 0.32, 0.325]
2
3
nonflatness x2
-
Unevenness - x3
Table 2. Output variables №
Output variables
Linguistic values of output variables Lower Normal Highe r
1
Reliability- y1
[0.704,
[0.796,
[0.93,
0.752,
0.86,
0.98,
0.796]
0.93]
1.0]
Table 3. Nominal values of variables №
Input parameters
1
valve cycle - x1
2 3
non-flatness - x2 unevenness -
x3
Normal values of variables [0 500] [0.03 0.07] [0.08 0.32]
The nominal values of the input parameters were given in the Table 3 During solving the problem, the fuzzy variable value was used, therefore for each variable linguistic term are used. Rule 1: IF the gate cycle is smaller, the non-flatness is smaller, the unevenness is smaller, THEN reliability is increased. Rule 2: IF the gate cycle is smaller, the nonflatness is normal, the unevenness is more, THEN - the reliability is normal. Rule 3: IF the unevenness is normal, the valve cycle is normal, the non-flatness is normal, THEN - the reliability is normal. Rule 4: IF the unevenness is normal, the gate cycle is large, the non-flatness is large, THEN reliability is lowered
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IFAC TECIS 2018 14 Aslanov Jamaladdin Nuraddin et al. / IFAC PapersOnLine 51-30 (2018) 12–14 Baku, Azerbaidschan, Sept 13-15, 2018
Rule 27: (There are 27 rules in the information base.) The MATLAB / task was implemented using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox and the conclusions were obtained. Analysis of the findings shows that, depending on the closing and opening of the valve on the contacting working surfaces, such indices of unevenness and non- flatness reliability are created, which at this time the system has the highest reliability. Obtained from MATLAB package 𝑥𝑥3 =0.128; 𝑌𝑌 = 0.932 𝑥𝑥1 = 249: 𝑥𝑥2 = 0.0521; Proves this (Fig.1 and Fig.2). This kind of system approach to solving problems allows controlling the reliability indicators of the gate valve to predict the failure probability. Using neuro-technics, you can determine the accuracy and adequacy of the model.
and applications. Academic Press, New York. Kaufmann A., Gupta M. (1988) Fuzzy mathematical models in engineering and management science. NorthHolland, Amsterdam. Leonenkov A. V. (2003). Necetkoe modelirovanie v srede MATLAB i fuzzy TECH. P. 719, SPb.: BKV Peterburgs Zadeh L.A. (1974) The Concept of a Linguistic Variable and its Application to Approximate Reasoning. New York: American Elsevier Publishing Company. Appendix A. SIMULATION RESULTS The obtained conclusions from the MATLAB package
3.CONCLUSIONS 3.1 The new model was offered to predict the probability of failure-free operation of the valve based on the theory of fuzzy sets. 3.2 The solution of the offered model provides prediction of the reliability of the improved valve and can be determined with this method predicting the reliability (probability of failure-free operation) of any valve constructions. RESULT As a result systematical approach style of valves reliability indicators control prediction created to provide failure free work of valves. In this model, it can be determined accuracy and adequacy of this model by using Nero techniques.
Fig.1. Graphical indicators
REFERENCES Аslanov J.N. (2007) Directly flew plug valve, State Standardization Metrology Agency for Patent, № а20040056, Baku. Аslanov J.N., (2014) Series produced by the shield-saddle bridge valves obstructive structures for improved wear resistance tested in pairs and strategy of the gate valves’ gates. Program methodology. AZİNMAŞ, Bakı. Aslanov J.N., Mammadov KH.S. (2017) Increasing reliability of the improved machines and equipment. determination of productivity criteria. Bulletin of Environment, Pharmacology and Life Sciences,Academy for Environment and Life Sciences, Vol 7(1), Pp.(55-58). Aslanov J.N. (2017) Valve, Useful model. State Standardization Metrology Agency for Patent, № U 2016 0018, Official bulleten №7, Baku. Babanlı M.B., Mamedov G.A, Aslanov J.N., (2016) Increasing reliability of the improved machines and equipment. determination of productivity criteria, Bulletin of Environment, Pharmacology and Life Sciences,Academy for Environment and Life Sciences, Vol 5(12), Pp.(95-98). Dubois D., Prade H. (1980) Fuzzy sets and systems: theory
Fig.2. The curve reliability unevennesses formed from wear
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dependency
from