Fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars - An analysis of learning rates, user costs, and costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions

Accepted Manuscript Learning rates, user costs, and costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions of fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars Martin Weiss, Andreas Zerfass, Eckard Helmers PII:

S0959-6526(18)33721-1

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.12.019

Reference:

JCLP 15077

To appear in:

Journal of Cleaner Production

Received Date: 21 September 2018 Revised Date:

4 November 2018

Accepted Date: 3 December 2018

Please cite this article as: Weiss M, Zerfass A, Helmers E, Learning rates, user costs, and costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions of fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars, Journal of Cleaner Production (2019), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.12.019. This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT Words: 9,922 (including references and appendix)

Learning rates, user costs, and costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions of fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars

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Martin Weiss1,2*, Andreas Zerfass3, Eckard Helmers3

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy, Transport and Climate, Sustainable Transport Unit, via Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra, Italy

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European Commission, Eurostat, E2 – Environmental Statistics and Accounts, Sustainable

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Development, Joseph Bech Building, 5, Rue Alphonse Weicker, L-2721 Luxembourg University of Applied Sciences Trier, Environmental Campus Birkenfeld, Environmental

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Planning and Technology Department, P.O. Box 1380, 55761 Birkenfeld, Germany

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Declarations of interest: none

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Corresponding author: Email: [email protected]; Phone: 00352-4301-35840.

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Abstract

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This article presents experience curves and cost-benefit analyses for electric and plug-in

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hybrid cars sold in Germany. Between 2010 and 2016, prices and price differentials relative to

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conventional cars declined at learning rates of 23 ± 2% and 32 ± 2% for electric cars and 6 ±

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1% and 37 ± 2% for plug-in hybrids. If trends persist, the beak-even price with their

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conventional counterparts may be reached after another 7 ± 1 million electric cars and 5 ± 1

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million plug-in hybrids are produced. Annually, the user costs of electric and plug-in hybrid

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cars relative to their conventional counterparts are declining by 14% and 26%. We also

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observe declining costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions through electric and

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plug-in hybrid cars. However, at current levels, NOX and particle number emissions are still

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mitigated at lower costs through state-of-the-art after-treatment systems than through the

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electrification of powertrains. Overall, the robust technological learning suggests that policy

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makers should increasingly focus on non-cost market barriers for electric and plug-in hybrid

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cars, addressing specifically drive range and availability of recharging infrastructure to

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effectively support the electrification of road transport.

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Key-words: Electric cars; Plug-in hybrid cars; Learning rates; break-even production;

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emissions mitigation costs

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Fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars have become increasingly popular, reaching market

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shares of 29% in Norway, 6% in the Netherlands, and 1.5% in China, France, and the UK

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(IEA, 2017). However, a decade after introduction into the mass-vehicle market, electrified

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vehicles continue to face important deployment barriers such as high prices, short drive

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ranges, long recharging times, and an insufficient recharging infrastructure (Bonges and Lusk,

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2016; Coffman et al., 2016; Gissler et al., 2016; Nilsson and Nykvist, 2016; FC, 2017;

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Liuima, 2017). The situation has been addressed by governments who provide incentives and

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have formulated ambitious market targets (IA-HEV, 2015; BR, 2016a; IEA, 2017). China and

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the USA, for example, aim at operating 5 million (SC, 2012) and 1.2 million electric vehicles

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(IA-HEV, 2015), respectively by 2020. Germany aims at having 1 million electric and plug-in

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hybrid cars on the roads by the same year (BR, 2016a). If these targets are to be achieved,

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persisting market barriers need to be removed swiftly by policy interventions that could

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benefit from insights into consumer preferences (Green et al., 2014) and the techno-economic

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progress of electric and plug-in hybrid cars (IEA, 2016, IRENA, 2017).

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Introduction

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Specifically relevant to this context is technological learning as a mechanism that decreases

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production costs and improves product attributes through the combined effect of economies of

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scale, learning by doing, or learning by searching. Technological learning has been quantified

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for non-plug-in hybrid cars (Weiss et al., 2012a) and more recently for a small sample of

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electric cars (Safari, 2017). Both studies demonstrate a robust trend towards declining prices,

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which implies that user costs and costs for mitigating carbon dioxide (CO2) and air pollutant

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emissions may follow alongside. If so, electrified vehicles are not just becoming financially

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more attractive to consumers but also economically more efficient in mitigating negative

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impacts road transport (Helmers, 2010; Cames and Helmers, 2013; Degraeuwe et al. 2016).

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This paper assesses the techno-economic performance of fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars

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sold in Germany - a country that constitutes the largest passenger car market in the EU with

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3.4 million vehicle registrations in 2016 (KBA, 2016). The focus is on the time period

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between 2010 and 2016, for which we: (i) explore price trends and establish experience

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curves, (ii) conduct a time-series analysis of user costs, and (iii) assess the costs of mitigating

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CO2 and air pollutant emissions by electric and plug-in hybrid cars. The results of this

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investigation will help policy makers to devise incentives that effectively support the

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deployment of electric and plug-in hybrid cars.

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Methods

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2.1

Definitions

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Throughout this paper, the terms ‘electric car’, ‘fully electric car’, and ‘battery-electric

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vehicle (BEV)’ are used for passenger cars that are propelled by one or multiple electric

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motors, drawing their propulsion energy solely from an electric battery. The terms ‘plug-in

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hybrids’, ‘plug-in hybrid car’, and ‘plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV)’ are used for passenger

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cars that: (i) are equipped with an internal combustion engine (ICE) and one or multiple

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electric motors, (ii) draw their propulsion energy from combustible fuels and/or electricity,

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and (iii) can be charged from an external electricity source. No distinction is made between

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parallel plug-in hybrids that can be propelled in parallel by the internal combustion engine

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and the electric motor(s) and series plug-in hybrids that are propelled by the electric motor(s)

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only. This choice ensures a sufficiently large vehicle sample for the early years 2011 and

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2012 when only few plug-in hybrid car models were available in the market. The terms

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‘conventional car’ and ‘conventional vehicle (CV)’ are used for passenger cars propelled

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exclusively by an internal combustion engine that draws its energy from combustible fuels

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such as gasoline or diesel.

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Data collection

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The data collection starts by identifying through an extended web search all mass-produced

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models of electric and plug-in hybrid cars sold in Germany between 2010 and 2016, covering

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the period from their introduction into the mass-vehicle market to the point of writing.

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Electric cars whose traction battery is offered to customers through a separate lease contract

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are excluded as these cars are considerably cheaper than those sold with the traction battery

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(see Tables S1-S4 in the Supplementary Material).

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Afterward, for each identified electric and plug-in hybrid car model one comparable

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conventional car model was selected to match its electrified counterpart, as far as feasible, in

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the production year, manufacturer name, model, vehicle type and size, and engine power. We

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generally chose conventional cars with a manual transmission. The resulting bias is minor

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because the absolute price difference between cars equipped with a manual transmission

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versus an automatic transmission ranges only between 300 and 1,500 euro (EUR) per vehicle

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(ADAC, 2016).

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Next, for all identified electric, plug-in hybrid, and conventional car models information was

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collected about their price [EUR], rated engine power [kW] and, if applicable, the capacity of

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the traction battery [kWh], the certified distance-specific energy consumption [kWh/km;

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l/100km] and CO2 emissions [gCO2/100km], and the certified emissions standard as published

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by car manufacturers or third-parties in print or in the internet (see Tables S1-S4 in the

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Supplementary Material).

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In a final step, relevant auxiliary information is collected. For calculating real vehicle prices,

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information regarding value added tax is obtained from Statista (2017a) and about the yearly

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inflation rate from Eurostat (2017). For estimating the cumulative production of electric cars

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and plug-in hybrids, data on the yearly worldwide new registrations of these vehicles is

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obtained from ZSW (2016). For calculating user costs, we collected for each electric, plug-in

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hybrid, and conventional car model the costs of maintenance, insurance, and registration from

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ADAC (2017). Moreover, assumptions are made on vehicle lifetime, yearly mileage, real-

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world fuel and electricity consumption, and price of diesel, gasoline, and electricity as

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indicated in Table 1.

104 The assumption of a 6 years lifetime for electric, plug-in hybrid, and conventional cars is

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motivated by three considerations: First, we ensure this way consistency with the collected

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data on maintenance costs (ADAC, 2017) that likewise refer to a vehicle lifetime of 6 years.

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Second, the assumption accounts for the uncertain lifetime of electric batteries (see, e.g.,

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Helmers and Weiss, 2017; Myall et al., 2018) that is likely shorter than the life time of the car.

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Third, the assumption of 6 years vehicle lifetime is consistent with the depreciation period of

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6 years as prescribed by BMF (2017) for commercially used cars in Germany. Still, we

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acknowledge that passenger cars may be driven longer than for 6 years. To account for this

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observation, we consider in a sensitivity analysis an extended lifetime of 11 years (150,000

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km). Due to the lack of reliable data, we do not account for battery replacement during this

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period and we assume yearly maintenance and insurance costs to be identical to those of cars

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operated within a lifetime of 6 years (see also discussion in Section 4.3.1).

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The costs for mitigating CO2 and NOX emissions by electric and plug-in hybrid cars were

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calculated based on gathered information as displayed in Table 1 and in Tables S2 and S4 in

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the Supplementary Material.

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Table 1:

Data used for calculating user costs and the costs for mitigating CO2 and NOX emissions through electric and plug-in hybrid cars (for further explanations see

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Table S5 in the Supplementary Material)

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Lifetime [years] Yearly mileage [km] Electricity price [EUR/kWh]

BMF (2017) KBA (2015) BDEW (2017)

Electric cars 6/11a 14,259 0.27

Fuel price [EUR2015/l]

Statista (2017b,c)

n.a.

Helmers et al. (2017)

707

n.a.

n.a.

Fritsche (2007)

n.a

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Difference between certified and realworld electricity and fuel consumption [% of certified value]

Zerfass (2015, 2017); Tietge et al. (2016)

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year-specific estimates

NOX emissions of power generation [g/kwh]

Helmers (2010)

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0.44

n.a.

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Carbon intensity of the electricity mix [g CO2-equivalents/kWh] Well-to-tank fuel losses [% of CO2 emissions at the tailpipe]

Source

Plug-in hybrid cars 6/11a 14,259 0.27 1.31 (diesel) 1.49 (gasoline)

Conventional cars 6/11a 14,259 1.31 (diesel) 1.49 (gasoline)

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Carbon emissions of battery production [kg CO2 equivalents/kWh]

Moro and Helmers (2017)

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a

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The data shown in Table 1 account for:

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n.a.

11 years life time assumed in the sensitivity analysis n.a. - not applicable

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certified and real-world electricity consumption of electric car models;

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•

certified and real-word CO2 emissions at the tailpipe of plug-in hybrid and

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conventional car models;

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CO2 emissions of electricity production in Germany;

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CO2 emissions of battery production.

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To account for the diffusion of renewables in the electricity mix of Germany, the assumption

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of a carbon intensity of 131 g CO2-equivalents/kWh was made, which comprises the residual

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carbon emissions of largely renewable-based electricity (Helmers et al., 2017).

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For calculating the cost of mitigating air pollutant emissions, the focus was on nitrogen oxides

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(NOX) and particle number (PN) emissions as both pollutants cause major concerns for public

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health (EEA, 2016a; WHO, 2016). Particle number emissions instead of particulate mass

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emissions are addressed in this paper as the former parameter captures more accurately the

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health effects of particle emission (Hennig et al., 2018), specifically those of solid ultrafine

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particles in the size range between >23 nm and 100 nm that contribute little to the overall

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particulate mass due to their small size (Mamakos et al., 2012). The following data were

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collected:

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•

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distance-specific on-road NOX and particle number emission factors for plug-in hybrid and conventional car models (Table 2);

•

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NOX emissions of electricity production in Germany (Table 1).

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The assumed NOX emission factors are primarily based on the European Environmental

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Agency’s air pollutant emission inventory guide book (EEA, 2016b; Table 2). The emission

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factors are within the range of values identified during on-road testing with Portable

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Emissions Measurement Systems (Weiss et al., 2012b; Yang et al., 2015). Data regarding the

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on-road NOX emissions of plug-in hybrid cars are still scarce. Here, we rely on Franco et al.

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(2016) who conducted, to our knowledge, the only openly available on-road NOX emission

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measurements of plug-in hybrid diesel cars. 5

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Table 2:

Tailpipe NOX and particle number emission factors of plug-in hybrid and

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conventional cars; principal data sources: EEA (2016b), Giechaskiel et al. (2015),

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Hammer et al. (2015) (for further explanations see Table S6 in the Supplementary

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Material) Particle number [#/km] 8×1011

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3×1012

490

8×1011

490

8×1011

610

4×1011

500

4×1011

60 60

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NOX [mg/km] 13

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Pollutant Plug-in hybrid cars Gasoline (Euro 5) Plug-in hybrid cars Gasoline (Euro 6b) Plug-in hybrid cars - Diesel (Euro 5) Plug-in hybrid cars - Diesel (Euro 6b) Conventional cars - Diesel (Euro 5) Conventional cars - Diesel (Euro 6b) Conventional cars Gasoline (Euro 5) Conventional cars Gasoline (Euro 6b)

1×1012 4×1012

The on-road measurements of particle number emissions have only recently become

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available. The particle number emission factors applied in this analysis are based on tests

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conducted on the chassis dynamometer and on the road (Giechaskiel et al., 2015; Hammer et

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al., 2015). Separate emission factors for gasoline and diesel car models as well as for cars

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certified according to the Euro 5 and 6 emission limits were assumed. It is thereby assumed

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that the Euro 5 limit applies to cars sold between 2010 and 2014 whereas the Euro 6 limit

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applies to cars sold in 2015 and 2016 (Table 2).

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2.3

Data analysis

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2.3.1 Data aggregation

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The deflated and tax corrected real price Pit [EUR2015], referenced to the year 2015, was

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calculated for each electric, plug-in hybrid, and conventional car model as:

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=(

)

(1)

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where pit represents the nominal price of car model i in year t [EUR], rt represents the value

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added tax rate in year t, and kt represents the year-specific currency deflator which as

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calculated based on the yearly inflation rate. Afterward, the specific price [EUR2015/kW;

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EUR2015/kWh] of each car model was calculated by normalizing the real price Pit with: (i) the

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rated power [kW] of each electric, plug-in hybrid, and conventional car and (ii) the battery

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capacity [kWh] in the case of electric cars.

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In a final step, the price differential ∆Pit [EUR2015/kW] between each electric and plug-in

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hybrid car model i in year t relative to its conventional counterpart was calculated as:

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=

−

(2)

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where PEit represents the specific price of the electric and plug-in hybrid car model

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[EUR2015/kW] and PCit represents the specific price of the comparable conventional car

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model [EUR2015/kW]. The real specific prices and price differentials were used in the first part

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of our analysis to explore price trends and establish experience curves.

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2.3.2 Experience curve analysis

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Experience curves were established with SigmaPlot® by plotting the yearly mean price

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[EUR2015/kW; EUR2015/kWh] and price differential [EUR2015/kW] Pt(xt) for electric and plug-

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in hybrid cars as a function of cumulative vehicle production. Plotting the mean values instead

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of the individual prices and price differentials of electric and plug-in hybrid cars allows

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controlling for differences in data frequency between individual years. This ensures each year

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receives the same weight in the experience curve analysis. Then, a non-linear regression

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analysis was conducted by fitting the following power-law function to the plotted data:

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( )=

( )

(3)

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where P0(x0) represents the mean price or price differential of electric and plug-in hybrid cars

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in the base years 2010 (electric cars) and 2011 (plug-in hybrids) of the analysis, respectively;

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x0 and xt represent the cumulative production in the base year and in year t of the analysis,

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respectively; b represents the experience index, depicting the rate at which prices and price

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differentials of electric and plug-in hybrid cars decline. Depicting the resulting experience

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curve on a double-logarithmic scale yields a linear regression line with slope b. From this 7

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slope, the learning rate LR [%] was deduced as the rate at which prices and price differentials

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of electric and plug-in hybrid cars decline with each doubling of cumulative production:

215 = (1 − 2 ) ∙ 100%

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(4)

217 The standard error of the slope parameter b obtained from Equation 3 is used to derive the

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error interval of the learning rate. Equation 3 was then also used to calculate the marginal

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cumulative production xBE of electric and plug-in hybrid cars that is necessary to achieve a

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price break-even with conventional cars:

222 !

#

= "# $% )

& '(

*

+

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(5)

where x2016 represents the cumulative production in year 2016, PBE the break-even price as the

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average price [EUR2015/kW] of conventional cars in 2016, and P2016 the average price of

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electric and plug-in hybrid cars, respectively in 2016. The error interval of the necessary

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cumulative production was estimated from the standard error of the experience index b.

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2.3.3 Time-series analysis of user costs

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In the second part of our analysis, user costs Ci,t [EUR2015/km] of each electric, plug-in

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hybrid, and conventional car model i sold in year t were calculated as:

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235

=

#

(,-

- . ,.∙ .

-0

)0

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(6)

where Pit represents the real absolute vehicle price [EUR2015], CMi the yearly maintenance

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costs [EUR2015] comprising vehicle maintenance, registration, and insurance, Mi the yearly

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driving distance [km], Fi the distance-specific electricity or fuel consumption [l/100 km;

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kWh/100km] under real-world conditions, CF the price of fuel or electricity [EUR2015/l;

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EUR2015/kWh], and Li the lifetime [a] of each respective vehicle i. For each year the mean and

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standard deviation of user costs for the respective car models were calculated.

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2.3.4 Time-series analysis of costs for mitigating emissions

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In the third part of the analysis, the costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions CEit

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[EUR2015/100 g CO2; EUR2015/100 mg NOX; EUR2015/1011 particles] of each electric and plug-

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in hybrid car model i sold in year t were calculated as:

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=

, ( !12#3!1)2, (,1) ! (,1)2! ( !12#3!1)

(7)

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where Cit(BEV-PHEV) represents the user costs of each electric and plug-in hybrid car model

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[EUR2015/km], respectively, Cit(CV) stands for the user costs of the equivalent conventional

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car model [EUR2015/km], Eit(BEV-PHEV) represents the distance-specific emissions of each

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electric and plug-in hybrid car model, and Eit(CV) represent the distance-specific emissions of

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each conventional car model [g 100 g CO2/km; 100 mg NOX/km; 1011 particles/km],

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respectively. The so-calculated emissions mitigation costs, CEit, represent the marginal costs

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of mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions below the emission levels of conventional cars

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currently offered on the market. Costs can assume extremely large positive or negative values

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depending on the differences in user costs and emissions between electric and plug-in hybrid

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cars on one hand and their conventional counterparts on the other hand. Therefore, the

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calculated mitigation costs, CEit, have to be interpreted with caution and after careful

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inspection of the input data. To avoid that outliers introduce a bias into the cost estimates, we

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chose the median and half of the interquartile range to represent the general trend and

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variability in the emissions mitigations costs of electric and plug-in hybrid cars.

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The costs for mitigating CO2 emissions were calculated for four scenarios that consider: (i)

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the distance-specific tailpipe CO2 emissions as certified during type approval, (ii) the

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distance-specific tailpipe CO2 emissions under real-word driving conditions based on ICCT

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(2016), (iii) the distance-specific CO2 emissions along the entire well-to-wheel (WTW)

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electricity and fuel supply chain (see Table 1), and (iv) a hybrid WTW scenario proposed by

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Moro and Helmers (2017) that also includes the CO2 emissions from battery manufacturing

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(see Table 1). The latter scenario is justified as electric cars and conventional cars are

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composed of a largely comparable materials cake with the exception of the traction battery

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whose production is energy intensive (Moro and Helmers, 2017).

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The costs for mitigating NOX and particle number emissions were calculated for two

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scenarios that consider: (i) the distance specific tailpipe NOX and particle number emission 9

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under real-world driving conditions and (ii) in the case of NOX the inclusion of emissions

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from electricity generation in Germany, accounting thereby for the indirect NOX pollution

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caused by electric and plug-in hybrid cars (see Table 1).

281 3

Results

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3.1

Price trends and experience curves

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The mean price of electric cars sold in Germany has decreased by a staggering 63% from

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1,090 ± 560 EUR2015/kW in 2010 to 400 ± 220 EUR2015/kW in 2016; the mean price of plug-

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in hybrids has decreased by 24% from 330 ± 10 EUR2015/kW in 2011 to 250 ±

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60 EUR2015/kW in 2016. By contrast, the mean price of comparable conventional cars has

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increased by 21% from 180 ± 30 EUR2015/kW in 2010 to 220 ± 50 EUR2015/kW in 2016

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(Figure 1).

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Real specific price [EUR2015/kW]

2000

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1500 1000 500 0

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PHEVs

300 200 100

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Real specific price [EUR2015/kW]

400

400

CVs

300 200 100 0 2010

2012

2013

2014

Year

Figure 1:

2015

2016

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2011

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Real specific price [EUR2015/kW]

0

Specific price of electric cars (BEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), and conventional cars (CVs) sold in Germany; squares depict mean prices; error intervals represent

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the standard deviation of price data

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The prices of models scatter over a wide range. Although electric cars still tend to be more

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expensive in 2016 than their conventional counterparts, the robust price decline suggests

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substantial technological learning in the electrification of passenger cars. In fact, the

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experience curve analysis reveals learning rates of 23 ± 2% and 6 ± 1% for the specific price

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of electric cars and plug-in hybrids, respectively (Figure 2a). Even higher learning rates of

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32 ± 2% and 37 ± 2% are observed for the price differential between electric cars and plug-in

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hybrids and their conventional counterparts (Figure 2b).

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BEVs: R =0.97; LR=(23 ± 2)% 2 PHEVs: R =0.95; LR=(6 ± 1)%

300 200 150 100 50 100 200 300 500 1000 Cumulative global production of electric cars and plug-in hybrids [1000 vehicles]

750 500 250

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Real specific price [EUR2015/kW]

1000

500

0

50 100 200 300 500 1000 Cumulative global production of electric cars and plug-in hybrids [1000 vehicles]

Experience curves depicting the mean specific price (a) and mean specific price

SC

Figure 2:

(b)

1250

1000 750

304 305

1500 Real specific price differential [EUR2015/kW]

(a)

1500

BEVs: R =0.99; LR=(32 ± 2)% 2 PHEVs: R =0.99; LR=(37 ± 2)%

differential (b) of electric cars and plug-in hybrids; error intervals represent the

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standard deviation of data

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The mean price differential between electric and conventional cars has decreased from 920 ±

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540 EUR2015/kW in 2010 to 214 ± 237 EUR2015/kW in 2016. The mean price differential

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between plug-in hybrids and conventional cars has decreased from 182 ± 11 EUR2015/kW in

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2011 to 20 ± 38 EUR2015/kW in 2016, suggesting plug-in hybrids are close to reaching price

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parity with their conventional counterparts. Expressing the price of electric cars in terms of

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battery capacity yields a comparable trend but a lower learning rate of 16 ± 2% (see Text Box

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1 in the Supplementary Material).

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Assuming (i) the learning rates for electric cars and plug-in hybrids apply in the future and (ii)

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the prices of conventional cars remain as in 2016, an additional 7 ± 1 million electric cars and

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5 ± 1 plug-in hybrids have to be produced until both vehicle types reach price break-even with

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their conventional counterparts. This result is remarkably low, accounting for less than 10%

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of the annual global production of passenger cars (OICA, 2018).

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3.2

Time-series of user costs

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User costs do not follow the trend of vehicle prices but tend to remain constant (electric cars)

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or increase (plug-in hybrids and conventional cars) between 2010 and 2016 (Figure 3a). This

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observation suggests that the decline in specific vehicle price is compensated by a trend

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towards more powerful vehicles and subsequently an increase in the absolute vehicle price as

328

well as the electricity and fuel consumption of vehicles (Zerfass, 2017). In 2016, electric cars, 12

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329

plug-in hybrids, and their conventional counterparts are associated with user costs of 0.74 ±

330

0.46 EUR2015/km, 1.06 ± 0.41 EUR2015/km, and 0.71 ± 0.44 EUR2015/km, respectively. The

331

latter result represents the user costs of all conventional cars contained in our analysis.

332 The user costs of electric cars, plug-in hybrids, and their conventional counterparts decrease

334

to 0.51 ± 0.30 EUR2015/km, 0.75 ± 0.27 EUR2015/km, and 0.52 ± 0.29 EUR2015/km in 2016

335

when considering an extended vehicle life time of 11 years and 150,000 km (Table S7 in the

336

Supplementary Material).

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333

337

1.0

0.5

0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0

-0.1

0.0 2010

Figure 3:

2011

2012

2013 Year

2014

2015

2016

2010

2011

2012

2013 Year

2014

2015

2016

Mean user costs (a) of electric cars (BEVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), and

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338 339

0.4

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BEVs PHEVs

(b) 0.5

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Real user costs [EUR2015/km]

2.0

User cost differential relative to conventional vehicles [EUR2015/km]

BEVs PHEVs CVs (comparable to BEVs) CVs (comparable to PHEVs)

(a)

340

conventional counterparts (CVs) and and mean differential user costs of electric

341

cars and plug-in hybrids relative to their conventional counterparts (b); error

342

intervals represent the standard deviation of data

EP

343

The high user costs of plug-in hybrids relative to electric cars can be attributed to their high

345

absolute price, power, and electricity/fuel consumption. The differential user costs of electric

346

cars and plug-in hybrids compared to their conventional counterparts have been declining

347

overall by 60% and 78% and annually by 14% and 26%, respectively. By 2016, electric cars

348

and plug-in hybrids cost their users 0.13 ± 0.14 EUR2015/km and 0.05 ± 0.15 EUR2015/km

349

more than conventional cars do (Figure 3b), suggesting that the former cannot recover, on

350

average, their price premium within a lifetime of 6 years. However, when assuming a life time

351

of 11 years, electric cars and plug-in hybrids are cost effective already to date. In this

352

scenario, individual electric cars and plug-in hybrids in fact can cost their users less than

353

conventional cars whereas on average additional costs scatter around 0.05 ± 0.09 EUR2015/km

354

for electric cars and 0.02 ± 0.11 EUR2015/km for plug-in hybrids (see also Table S7 in the

355

Supplementary Material).

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356 3.3

358

3.3.1 Costs of mitigating carbon dioxide emissions

359

The CO2 emissions of electric, plug-in hybrid, and conventional cars vary depending on the

360

scenario considered. Thus, also the costs for mitigating the CO2 emissions of conventional

361

cars through the deployment of electric cars and plug-in hybrids depend on their respective

362

scenarios. The results of the four emission scenarios depicted in Figure 4 show that:

363

Time-series of emissions mitigation costs

•

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357

The CO2 mitigation costs of individual electric and plug-in hybrid cars scatter over a wide range in all four scenarios. The small vehicle samples in the period between 2010

365

and 2014 render it difficult to identify a robust trend in CO2 mitigation costs.

366

Mitigation costs can be particularly high when the CO2 emission savings of electric

367

and plug-in hybrid cars relative to their conventional counterparts are small (see

368

calculation method in Equation 7). •

370 371

The median CO2 mitigation costs of electric cars tend to decline between 2010 and 2016 in all scenarios.

•

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SC

364

Overall, the level CO2 mitigation costs of electric cars decreases when considering the actual on-road CO2 emissions of conventional cars instead of the certified tailpipe

373

emissions; however, the level of CO2 mitigation costs of electric cars increase by a

374

factor of 1.3 to 2.6 when considering the well-to-wheel emissions instead of the actual

375

on-road emissions at the tailpipe; the median CO2 mitigation costs of electric cars

376

increase by 20-34% when adding the indirect CO2 emissions from battery production

377

to the well-to-wheel emissions. •

The median costs for mitigating the certified tailpipe CO2 emissions of plug-in hybrids

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tend to decrease (Figure 4a), whereas the median costs for mitigating the actual on-

380

road tailpipe emissions show no uniform trend.

381 382 383 384

•

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Considering the entire well-to-wheel energy chain, plug-in hybrids tend to emit more CO2 than their conventional counterparts (depicted as negative costs in Figures 4c and

4d).

385

Decreasing the carbon intensity of the electricity mix from 707 g CO2-equivalents/kWh to 131

386

g CO2-equivalents/kWh by shifting towards a renewable electricity supply can decrease the

387

well-to-wheel CO2 mitigation costs of electric cars by 60%. Likewise, assuming a vehicle

388

lifetime of 11 years (150,000 km) instead of 6 years cuts the CO2 mitigation costs by roughly

389

a similar margin. For example, the costs of mitigating real-world CO2 tailpipe emissions by 14

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390

electric vehicles decreased from 703 ± 219 EUR2015/t CO2 to 292 ± 203 EUR2015/t CO2 under

391

the assumption of an 11 years vehicle lifetime (Table S8 in the Supplementary Material).

392 (a): Certified tail pipe emissisions

3000 2000 1000 0 6000

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2000

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Costs of mitigating CO2 emissions [EUR/t CO2]

(b): On-road tail pipe emissions

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Costs of mitigating CO2 emissions [EUR/t CO2]

4000

0

15000

(c): Well-to-wheel emissions

10000

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(d): Emissions from well-towheel and battery manufacturing

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50x103

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-50x103

-100x103

2010

393 394

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Year

Figure 4:

Median costs for mitigating CO2 emissions of conventional cars by electric cars

395

(green diamonds) and plug-in hybrids (blue circles) considering certified tailpipe

396

emissions (a), on-road tailpipe emissions (b), emissions along the the entire well-

397

to-wheel chain of electricity and fuels (c), and a hybrid approach including well-

398

to-wheel emissions and those from battery production (d); error intervals represent

15

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399

half of the interquartile range of cost data in individual years; a sample size of one

400

model does not permit to present an error interval for plug-in hybrid cars in 2011

401 3.3.2 Costs of mitigating nitrogen oxides and particle number emissions

403

Electric and plug-in hybrid cars can mitigate NOX and particle number emissions. The

404

mitigation costs of electric cars tend to decrease from 2010 to 2016 in all three scenarios

405

(Figure 5); by contrast, the mitigation costs of plug-in hybrids do not show a uniform trend.

406

The mitigation costs incurred by electric cars are particularly low if the comparable

407

conventional cars show high emission levels, as it is the case for NOX emitted by diesel cars

408

(Figure 5a). The median costs incurred by electric cars decrease by 67% (to 1.8×106 EUR/t

409

NOX) and 48% (to 3.0×105 EUR/t NOX) between 2010 and 2016 for mitigating the tailpipe

410

NOX emissions of gasoline and diesel vehicles, respectively. The costs roughly halve to

411

6.8×105 EUR/t NOX and 1.6×105 EUR/t NOX when assuming an extended vehicle lifetime of

412

11 years (Table S8 in the Supplementary Material).

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413

Including the indirect NOX emissions from electricity generation, electric cars (in 2014 and

415

2016) and plug-in hybrids (in general) tend to emit on average more NOX than their

416

conventional counterparts (see differences between Figures 5a and 5b). Following the

417

assumptions in Table 2, plug-in hybrid gasoline cars can mitigate NOX emissions of

418

conventional cars whereas plug-in hybrid diesel cars cannot. If electricity generation is taken

419

into consideration, diesel plug-in hybrids do not save NOX compared to conventional diesel

420

cars.

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The costs for mitigating particle number tailpipe emissions of gasoline and diesel cars by

423

electric cars decreased between 2010 and 2016 on average by 92% (from 3.3×104 EUR/1017

424

particles to 2.7×103 EUR/1017 particles) and 58% (from 3.5×105 EUR/1017 particles to

425

1.5×105 EUR/1017 particles), respectively. The higher costs of electric cars to mitigate the

426

particle emissions of diesel cars compared to those of gasoline cars stem from the high

427

emissions factor for gasoline cars without particulate filters (see Table 2). Plug-in hybrids can

428

hardly mitigate particle emissions and may even show higher emission levels than

429

conventional cars (see emission factors in Table 2).

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Costs of mitigating NOX emissions [1000 EUR/t NOX]

14000 (a): Tailpipe NOX emissions 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000

40000

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20000 0

-40000 500

(c): Tailpipe PN emissions

400 300 200

0 -100 2010

2011

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2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

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Figure 5:

Median costs for mitigating NOX and particle number (PN) emissions of

EP

431 432

(b): NOX emissions at the tailpipe and from electricity generation

60000

Costs of mitigating PN 17 emissions [1000 EUR/10 particles]

Costs of mitigating NOX emissions [1000 EUR/t NOX]

-2000

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conventional gasoline and diesel cars by electric cars (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids

434

(PHEVs) considering tailpipe emissions (a, c) and a combination of tailpipe

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435

emissions and indirect NOX emissions from electricity generation (b); error

436

intervals represent half of the interquartile range of cost data in individual years;

437

sample size of one model does not permit to present an error interval for plug-in

438

hybrid cars in 2011

439 440

4

Discussion

441

4.1

Discussion of price trends and experience curves

442

4.1.1 Limitations and uncertainty

17

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The analysis presented in this article comprises all models of mass-produced electric and

444

plug-in hybrid cars sold in Germany between 2010 and 2016. As the German car market is

445

competitive, price trends comparable to those identified here are likely also be found on other

446

vehicle markets such as China, Japan, and the USA (Weiss et al., 2012). The learning rates on

447

these markets may, however, differ from those identified here as manufacturers may alter the

448

positioning of models for the same markets to match purchasing power and the willingness of

449

consumers to pay for certain vehicle types.

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450

Our analysis does not distinguish between parallel and series plug-in hybrids. This choice

452

may introduce uncertainty into the price and cost analysis because the relative frequency of

453

comparatively expensive parallel plug-in hybrids and comparatively cheap series hybrids

454

varies in the data samples for individual years (see Table S4 in the Supplementary Material).

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455

Moreover, electric cars were excluded if their traction battery is offered through a lease

457

contract. Battery leasing lowers the initial price of electric cars and absorbs consumer

458

uncertainty around battery durability, which may decrease implicit consumer discount rates

459

for electric cars (Sigrin, 2013; Liao et al., 2017; Haq and Weiss, 2018). While sold and leased

460

batteries are subject to similar rates of technological learning, we see merits in surveys

461

eliciting consumer preferences for purchasing versus leasing traction batteries and thereby

462

help identifying persisting market barriers for electric cars.

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463

Our experience curve analysis is subject to caveats related, e.g., to the approximation of

465

production costs by market prices or inhomogeneity of technical characteristics that are

466

discussed in Text Box 2 in the Supplementary Material.

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468

4.1.2 Implications for science and policy

469

The learning rates identified here for the price (23 ± 2%) and price differential of electric cars

470

(32 ± 2%) exceed: (i) the 9% and 12% identified by Safari (2017) for the price of electric cars

471

and the costs of powertrain electrification excluding battery and (ii) the 8 ± 1% identified by

472

Weiss et al. (2015) for the price of e-bikes. However, the learning rates for the price (6 ± 1%)

473

and price differential (37 ± 2%) of plug-in hybrids confirm, in part, the learning rates of 7 ±

474

2% and 23 ± 5% (mean ± 95% confidence interval) identified for non-plug in hybrid vehicles

475

by Weiss et al. (2012).

476 18

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The high learning rates for electric cars may be explained by technological learning in the

478

manufacturing of the relatively large traction battery, which constitutes the single most

479

important component in the costs of an electric power train (Safari, 2017). Together with

480

other electric powertrain components, the traction battery thus constitutes a higher share in the

481

overall production costs of electric cars than it does in the production costs of hybrid cars.

482

Nagelhout and Ros (2009) as well as Nykvist and Nilsson (2015) identified learning rates of

483

17% and 6-9%, respectively for the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries. IRENA (2017a)

484

expects the costs for these batteries decrease to below 100 USD/kWh within a decade. AMS

485

(2017) sketches an even more optimistic scenario, stipulating that industry to date already

486

operates with costs of 100 EUR/kWh. As technological learning in battery manufacturing is

487

not limited to the automotive industry, spill-overs of economy-wide battery applications, such

488

as in the buildings sector, may increasingly benefit vehicle batteries in the future. Volatility in

489

lithium prices may not significantly affect these costs in the midterm (Ciez and Whitacre,

490

2016) as raw materials (lithium and others) account for only 12% of the manufacturing costs

491

of lithium-ion batteries (Helmers, 2015).

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477

492

Safari (2017) found that only some 37 ± 2% of the electrification costs and 19 ± 1% of the

494

total manufacturing costs of electric cars stem from the traction battery. Thus, the majority of

495

costs for an electric powertrain result from modules such as the electric motor, power

496

electronics, and auxiliary components (Safari, 2017), which together offer a large potential for

497

technological learning independent from that of battery manufacturing.

498

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If technological learning continues to decrease production costs, vehicle prices will soon

500

become a minor concern for the market penetration of electric cars. Moreover, high prices do

501

not per se prohibit the market penetration of status revealing commodities such as passenger

502

cars. The deployment of electric and plug-in hybrid cars could, thus, benefit greatly from

503

branding, marketing, and clever product positioning that exploits status competition and social

504

frames of consumers (Haq and Weiss, 2018). Such strategies can, however, be effective only

505

if non-cost factors such as drive ranges, recharging times, and recharging infrastructure are

506

addressed. The experience in Germany seems to support this argument: In the 11 months

507

since subsidies of 4,000 EUR and 3,000 EUR are granted for each electric and plug-in hybrid

508

car (BR, 2016b), just 20,000 applications for receiving a subsidy were submitted (AB, 2017a).

509

This low number is remarkable because the level of subsidies overcompensates, on average,

510

the price difference between electric cars (214 ± 237 EUR/kW) and plug-in hybrids (20 ± 38

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19

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511

EUR/kW) and their conventional counterparts. Lévay et al. (2017) did not identify a clear link

512

between the level of subsidies and the number of electric cars sold in several European

513

countries. It is therefore reasonable to expect that part of the subsidies invite wasteful free-

514

riding (see also Hardman et al., 2017). To ensure effective policy support for electric vehicles,

515

regulators and industry could: •

516

and recharging times; •

518

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reconsider subsidies and focus on barriers such recharging infrastructure, drive range,

address the still limited consumer experience with electric cars and aim at decreasing risk aversion and transaction costs by offering attractive leasing programs, extended

520

warranty, maintenance, take-back plans, and free recharging at car dealerships, whose

521

reluctance to promote electric and plug-in hybrid cars appears to be an important

522

obstacle for the electrification of road transport in Germany (AB, 2017b);

524

introduce quotas and tighten CO2 emissions targets for passenger cars, such as the 95

M AN U

•

523

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519

g/km fleet-average target in the EU (EC, 2009).

525 4.2

527

4.2.1 Limitations and uncertainty

528

The user costs reflect the set of specific assumptions made here and do not necessarily capture

529

the costs of electric and plug-in hybrid cars operated by individual vehicle users or in other

530

countries. The assumption of a 6-year vehicle lifetime equates to an average mileage of

531

86,000 km, which is less than the 170,000-230,000 km lifetime mileage observed for

532

passenger cars in Germany (Weymar and Finkbeiner, 2016). As our analysis may thus over-

533

emphasize the contribution of vehicle price to the overall user costs, we also consider in a

534

sensitivity analysis an extended lifetime of 11 years (150,000 km). This analysis reflects the

535

use pattern of vehicles in Germany (Weymar and Finkbeiner, 2016) but it excludes the cost of

536

battery replacement and could therefore underestimate the user costs of electric and plug-in

537

hybrid cars.

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Discussion of user costs

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526

539

For plugin-in hybrids, a deviation between certified and real-world fuel consumption of 218%

540

was assumed based on a sample of 1135 vehicles presented by Tietge et al. (2016). The

541

assumed deviation seeks to capture the average use conditions of plug-in hybrids that are,

542

however, subject to considerable variability as recharging patterns that can vary from frequent

543

to never. Therefore, in cases where plug-in hybrids are frequently recharged, and thus driven

544

largely electrically, the assumption of a 218% divergence overestimates user costs and the 20

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545

costs of mitigating emissions (see also Section 4.4.1). The aspects discussed in this section are

546

also relevant for the costs of mitigating CO2 and pollutant emissions (see Section 4.3).

547 4.2.2 Implications for science and policy

549

User costs scatter over a wide range (Figure 3a) but do not decline in the same way as the

550

price and price differentials of electric cars and plug-in hybrids do (Figure 2). This

551

observation suggests manufacturers deploy increasingly larger, more expensive and powerful,

552

and thus less energy efficient cars. Electric car and plug-in hybrids thereby follow the general

553

market trend (ICCT, 2017; Weiss et al., 2018), which in turn, supports our previous argument

554

that prices and user costs may already to date constitute only a minor barrier for the market

555

penetration of these vehicles.

556 557

4.3

558

4.3.1 Limitations and uncertainty

559

As is the case for user costs, also the emission mitigation costs are valid for the specific set of

560

assumptions made here and reflect the average situation in Germany. The cost estimates

561

scatter over a wide range and can assume very high absolute values if emission savings of

562

electric and plug-in hybrid cars are close to zero (see Equation 7). Moreover, mitigation costs

563

become negative if either savings in user costs or savings in emissions are negative, which

564

renders the result ambiguous (interpretable as cost saved per unit of emissions saved for either

565

electric and plug-in cars or conventional cars). If both costs and emissions savings are

566

negative, the result becomes positive and depicts in this case the costs accrued by

567

conventional cars for mitigating the emissions from electric and plug-in hybrid cars. Given

568

these intricacies, it is important to inspect the emissions mitigation costs and their underlying

569

data carefully before drawing conclusions. Our calculation method yields robust results in

570

cases where an expensive novel technology yields substantial emission savings compared (as

571

is the case for electric cars mitigating the tailpipe NOX emissions of diesel cars; see Figure

572

5a). However, if costs and emissions of a novel technology are similar to those of the

573

incumbent technology (as is the case here plug-in hybrid diesel cars replacing conventional

574

cars in Figures 4c, 4d, and 5), the interpretation of results requires care.

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Discussion of emissions mitigation costs

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575 576

The extent, to which electric cars and plug-in hybrids can mitigate the emissions of

577

conventional cars, depends on the assumed emission factors. Certified CO2 emissions at the

578

tailpipe are determined in a standardized procedure; the respective emission factors are 21

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therefore robust. However, the CO2 emissions on the road depend on the actual vehicle

580

operation and can scatter over a wider range. This paper does not account for this variability

581

but applies generic correction factors that capture the average deviation between certified and

582

actual on-road CO2 emissions (Tietge et al., 2016). The correction factors cannot obviously

583

reflect the specific CO2 emissions of each car model under any conceivable operating

584

conditions. The resulting uncertainty is specifically high for plug-in hybrids whose tailpipe

585

CO2 emissions can vary between zero to above the levels of conventional cars depending on

586

the charging status of the traction battery.

587

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579

The assumed carbon intensity of the electricity mix (707 g CO2-equivalents/kWh) captures

589

the average situation in Germany as of 2013 and includes own consumption of power plants

590

and well-to-plug losses in the electricity system (Helmers et al., 2017). The assumed value is

591

therefore higher than the carbon intensity of 573 g CO2/kWh reported by UBA (2018) for the

592

same year.

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593 594

Given the limited data availability, the assumed NOX and particle number emission factors

595

(Table 2) require scrutiny from further emissions testing (see also Text Box 4 in the

596

Supplementary Material).

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597

Finally, the large error intervals in the costs of mitigating emissions (Figures 4 and 5) arise

599

from considerable variability in the costs and emissions mitigation potential of individual car

600

models. Our cost analysis provides an indication of the average marginal costs incurred by

601

electric cars and plug-in hybrids sold in Germany for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant

602

emissions below the emission levels of conventional cars. Given the large variability in user

603

costs, the average emission mitigation costs may thus not represent adequately the cost

604

performance of each individual model.

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606

4.3.2 Implications for science and policy

607

Electric and plug-in hybrid cars operated in Germany can mitigate tailpipe CO2 emissions at

608

median costs of 700 ± 200 EUR/t CO2 (electric cars) and 1,400 ± 1,600 EUR/t CO2 (plug-in

609

hybrids). The median CO2 emissions mitigation costs for electric cars level at 1,700 ± 1,000

610

EUR/t CO2 if indirect emissions of electricity generation are accounted for; these costs could

611

decrease to 680 ± 220 EUR/t CO2 if electricity was generated by renewables. The cost levels

612

in all scenarios could decrease by more than 50% when assuming a vehicle lifetime of eleven 22

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years instead of six years (see Table S8 in the Supplementary Material). These values are

614

broadly in line with the costs of 2000-2500 EUR/t CO2-equivalents found by ASUE (2016)

615

for electric cars driven 15,000 km per year. The Emissions mitigation costs are higher than/in

616

line with the 400-600 EUR/t CO2-equivalents determined by ASUE (2016) when assuming a

617

6/11 year lifetime of vehicles. Depending on the scenario considered, CO2 emissions

618

mitigation costs of electric cars and plug-in hybrids already to date approach cost levels of

619

<100 EUR/t CO2 as projected by McKinsey (2009) for the year 2030.

RI PT

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620

The CO2 emissions mitigation costs of electric and plug-in hybrid cars are: (i) high when

622

assuming a 6-year vehicle lifetime and (ii) comparable when assuming an 11-year lifetime

623

with renewable energies like wind and photovoltaics that can already be cheaper and save

624

CO2 emissions compared to fossil energy resources (Boshell et al., 2017; IRENA, 2018).

SC

621

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625

The costs of mitigating NOX and particle emissions by electric cars and plug-in hybrids are

627

several orders of magnitudes higher than those incurred by: (i) after-treatment technologies of

628

conventional cars (800-3,800 EUR/t NOX; 6-100 EUR/1017 particles; Figures A1 and A2;

629

Table S8 in the Supplementary Material). Care is however necessary when interpreting this

630

observation as emission levels are subject to variability as well as the proper functioning and

631

durability of after-treatment systems (see Text Box 3 in the Supplementary Material). The

632

NOx and PN emissions mitigation costs of electric and plug-in hybrid cars decrease but are

633

still high compared to after-treatment technologies when an extended lifetime of eleven years

634

is assumed. This observation suggests economic merits in advancing the emissions control

635

technologies of conventional cars such as selective-catalytic reduction (SCR) technology that

636

is readily available1 and whose application would allow meeting the applicable air quality

637

standards in Europe (Degraeuwe et al., 2017). To realize the existing potentials of after-

638

treatment technologies necessitates a rigorous enforcement of existing emission legislation. If

639

done, the current levels of urban NO2 and particle pollution are decreased less costly through

640

catalysts and filters than through the deployment of electric and plug-in hybrid cars.

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641 642

5

Conclusions

643

We draw the following conclusions for electric and plug-in hybrid cars sold in Germany: 1

Analyses conducted in the aftermath of the Diesel-NOX scandal suggest that the application of defeat devises is widespread and the effectiveness of after-treatment systems often limited during normal vehicle use (BMVI, 2016; Degraeuwe and Weiss, 2017). The costs of mitigating NOX emissions through inactive emission control technologies tend to infinity.

23

644

•

645 646

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Electric and plug-in hybrid cars have become cheaper and more cost competitive since their introduction into the mass-vehicle market in 2010.

•

The price decline observed for electric and plug-in hybrid cars suggests substantial

647

technological learning that will likely continue to decrease production costs and

648

vehicle prices in the future.

649

•

Electric cars show higher learning rates than plug-in hybrids and other transport technologies, indicating considerable technological learning in the manufacturing of

651

batteries and other electric powertrain components.

652

•

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650

The user costs of electric and plug-in hybrid cars scatter over a wide range; the costs tend to increase on average, owing to a trend towards larger, more powerful, and thus

654

less energy efficient, cars. However, the mean cost differentials between electric cars

655

and plug-in hybrids and their conventional counterparts have been declining. •

The substantial decline in the price of electric cars and plug-in hybrids in conjunction

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656

SC

653

with a market trend towards larger and more vehicles suggest prices and costs may no

658

longer be the primary factor inhibiting the electrification of road transport. If so,

659

policy makers and industry could reconsider subsidies and focus on non-cost market

660

barriers such as: (i) drive range, recharging times, and number of available recharging

661

points, (ii) warranty, maintenance, and take-back plans, (iii) branding, marketing, and

662

product positioning that capitalizes on the status competition and social frames of

663

consumers. •

665 666

The costs for mitigating CO2 and air pollutant emissions by electric and plug-in hybrid cars scatter over wide ranges and are specific to the set of assumptions applied here.

•

Electric cars can mitigate CO2 and pollutant emissions, even when considering the

EP

664

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657

indirect emissions from electricity generation and battery production. The CO2

668

mitigation costs will likely continue to decrease in the future due to technological

669 670 671 672 673

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learning and a growing contribution of renewables to the electricity mix.

•

The costs for mitigating NOX and particle emissions by electric and plug-in hybrid

cars decline but are comparatively high. At current levels, NOX and particle emissions

are mitigated less costly through state-of-the-art after-treatment systems than through the electrification of powertrains.

674 675

Acknowledgements and disclaimer

676

This research was conducted as part of the Master program on Business Administration and

677

Engineering at the University of Applied Sciences Trier (Germany). The expressed views are 24

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678

those of the authors and may not represent the position of the European Commission. We

679

thank Allister Pereira, Juliana Stropp, and two anonymous reviewers for providing comments

680

on earlier drafts of this article.

681 682

5

References

683

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2017a.

Umweltbonus:

Zoe

überholt

den

i3.

AB

–

Autobild.

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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT Appendix Nitric acid production - nSCR Boilers (industrial) Catalytic cracking Stationary natural cas combustion Process heaters Incinerators (general) Stationary diesel and dual-fuel combustion Coal cleaning Petroleum refining - SCR By-product coke manufacturing Iron and steel production Natural gas combustion (misc.) Gas turbines Cement production SCR-HDV (Diesel) SCR-LDV (Diesel) NOx-storage catalyst-LDV (Diesel) TWC-LDV (Gasoline) PHEVs (vs. Gasoline CVs) PHEVs (vs. Diesel CVs) BEVs (incl. electricity generation vs. Diesel CVs) BEVs (vs. Gasoline CVs) BEVs (vs. Diesel CVs)

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Costs of mitigating NOX emissions [EUR2015/t NOX]

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Indicative costs of mitigating NOX emissions assuming a 6 years vehicle lifetime; dots and error intervals depict: (i) the midpoint and range of costs of after-treatment technologies in cars and stationary installations and (ii) the

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median and half of the interquartile range of costs for electric and plug-in hybrid cars in 2016; negative costs for electric cars and plug-in hybrids are not shown because such values require careful inspection of the underlying data1;

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catalyst; data sources: EPA (2015) and Zerfass (2017)

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The NOX mitigating potential of plug-in hybrids compared to conventional cars is negligible given the assumptions in Tables 2. The same applies to electric cars compared to gasoline vehicles if the NOX emissions from electricity generation are included. The costs for mitigating NOX emissions in these two cases can assume very large negative or positive values following our calculation method in Equation 7 (see also Section 4.4.1).

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Particulate filters in lightand heavy-duty vehicles

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BEVs (vs. Gasoline CVs)

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Figure A2:

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Costs of mitigating PN emissions [EUR2015/10

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Indicative costs of mitigating particle number (PN) tailpipe emissions of

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underlying data; DPF – diesel particulate filter, GPF – gasoline particulate filter; LDV – light-duty vehicle; HDV – heavy-duty vehicles; CV -

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conventional car; data source: Zerfass (2017)

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Diesel plug-in hybrids do not mitigate PN emissions relative to conventional diesel cars following the assumptions in Table 2 in the main text.

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Specific price of electric and plug-in hybrid cars has been decreasing by 63% and 24% since 2010 Electric and plug-in hybrid cars show learning rates of 23 ± 2% and 6 ± 1%

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Production of additional 7 ± 1 million electric cars and 5 ± 1 million plug-in hybrids before reaching price break-even with conventional cars

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barriers such as charging infrastructure to support the electrification of road transport

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