- Email: [email protected]
Future competition in telecommunications
Book r('views
band ISDN can only be implemented bv fibre-optic cable. The fact that the author neglects to state that C C I T T R e c o m m e n d a t i o n G. 114 indicates that delays of 400 msec are acceptable seems odd. The fact that echo suppressors have given way to echo cancellers compounds the errors of omission. One should not be too harsh. Wallenstein's knowledge is encyclopaedic and his direct relationship with players such as Irmer. Ultaut, Vaughan, Witte and others is invaluable. Clearly Willlenstein understands the key issues i n v o l ' c d and can present them ,,','ell. The conflict betv,'een new start-up organizations with innovative services and global interconnection is adroitly explained. On pp 57-5S Wallcnstein even nlilnagcs tO indicate tile relationship and differences among and between tile International Standards Organiz,dion (IS()), tile International I'~lectro-Tcchnical ('onunission (IF,('), tile I T U and tile European groups of ('ent31cc, CI:.N and I-TSI. These may bc the best two pages ill the Ix)ok. I)cspilc tile wealth of infornl,llion anti e x p l a n a t i o n ill W a l l e n s t c i n ' s I)ook, I would hol)C there will be ,i scct)nd edition that would nlake the f()lh)wmg improvenlcnts:
•
cli.niniltc many ()f tile unnecessary, unhelpful and nearly illegible I)oxcs (211 of these could easily bc eliminated and the rest presented ill a readable fl)rnl);
•
•
•
•
•
expand the coverage to include a chapter on terminal e q u i p m e n t standards; provide more information about h o w t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s standards affect developing countries and how such countries participate in the processes: give further recognition to the problems and existence of private networks (eg SNA) versus public networks: update the text to include more recent developments on A T M . S O N E T , S y n c h r o n o u s Digital t l i e r a r c h y and the prcviot, sly noted problcn~s: p r e s e n t nlore Of ;.Ill o v e r a l l analyt i c a l frame',,'ork r a t h e r t h a n
machine-gunning the facts and figures at the bev,'ildercd readers ill a less than totally clear order. Ill short, Wallculstcin has produced a gem of a book on a very difficult and rapidly evolving subject. It ix. however, a flawed gem, but one deserving ()I" further effort. A second edition c()uld bc :t polished tliiunond gleaming 'vilh insight and knowledge, but ill the meantime the readers Call still gather v;thIc fronl wh;tl wc have.
Joseph N Pelton Graduate Telecommunications Program University of Colorado Boulder, CO, USA
Thoughtful stare into the crystal ball FUTURE COMPETITION IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS
tJlah)rs, a l t o r n e y s w h o re[)rcsenl various groups, a n d ac;.idenlics and con-
edited by Stephen P. Bradley and Jerry A. Hausman Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA, 1989, 340 pp This book began life at a l larvard Business School conference ill 1987. That conference considered the future of t e l c c o n l m u n i c a t i o n s competition from tile point of view of fi"c different groups: providers of telecomnlunicalions goods and services, users, rcg-
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
sultants who study the industry. The book which resulted is, I believe, t a r g e t e d at the informed lay person, and it does a reaso,mbly good job of distinguishing itself from tile many ()tiler t e l c c o n l n l u n i c ; d i o n s b o o k s ill the market. q"he book is c o n u n c n d a b l c fl)r looking at the ftzture and fl)r atleml~ting to understand and predict future telecommunications dcveh)pments. While the book is written on a rcilsonably sophisticated level, it inclndes explanations of much that is basic to an
P O L I C Y December 1990
understanding of today's anti tomorrow's telecommunications markets. It also includes discussions of the state and federal regulatory environment, as well as the legal environment, for telecommunications, particularly pertaining to the MFJ. While much of this material may be quite familiar (it adds relatively little that is new), a more informed reader could easily skim or skip these sections of the book.
Post-divestiture Chapter 1, by Stephen P. Bradley of t larvard Business School and Jerry A. l lausman of MIT, serves as tile introduction to tile volume. This provides a ch.'ar indt,stry background, focusing particularly on post-divestiU~re developnlents. TIle a u t h o r s express SOllle r e s e r v a t i o n s on tile fu(nre o f
MCI and Sprint as conll'jclilors of A T & T since al the lhne lifts was writtell their I)rofits and stock prices were h)w. Today's belier financhd rcsulls and tIle coml)anies' c o n t i n u e d growth
would presumably make the authors IllOl'e optimistic. Bradley and I lausm a n belic'c Ihc long-distance markcl w i l l bc C O m l ) e l i l i v e f o r l a r g e bt,sincsscs, but they arc not clear 'vlu,t 'viii happen flu" smaller businesses and for residential cnslonlcrs. They point OUl thai slale and federal regulalion,
as well as Court restrictions, could be inhibiting conlpetition for these ct,stomers. They also note that telecolnnlunicaliOllS equipment markets are conlpcfitive and should remain so a n d tha! tIle development of information services will be greatly affccled I)y Judge G r e e n e and the MFJ. The nexl two chapters describe tile teleconununicafions indtlstry. Chapter 2, by Richard I I . K . Victor of tile I larvard Business School. pro"ides a good history of A T & T and its regulation. This provides a conlr)rehcnsive background and framework for understanding the tlercgulation which began in tile 196(1s. The description continues through tile divestiture, v.'ith an exl~lanation of what happened and how the industry was reorganized. Professor Victor concludes by pointing out th;,t the rest, lting mixed regime of conlpctithm and regulation is not tenable, as has happened boil)re ill
533
~<,++)~. rt'l'&'xl "+ t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n \ , and >ince ~<., ha~e con'lpetition wc mu,,4 "dra>ticall,. reform cost-based rate regulation and entry restrictions or deregulate" (p %). Peter \%'. t t u b e r adapted part of The Geodesic Nenvork for Chapter 3. For those who have not read the MFJ report, this chapter can serve as a good sumnlarv. | | i s theme, of course. is that the structure of the netv,ork has changed clue to changing technology. M o n o p o l y regulation should end, and we will see what is competitive, inclucting, perhaps especially, local exchange service. Professor lluber seems to believe that hie'q, if not ;ill, of lelecouununic;.itions `",ill be revealed to be competitive. In Chapter 4 Kevin R. Sullivan, an attorney ~vith Pillsbury, Madison & ,'~tltl~, discusses the alttilru,,t issues v,hich `'`"ill aiixc with conlpc'lition and dc'rcgulalion, l i e does ptlinl out, howc'vcr, lhat alilicoinpu'l{ti',L' kirtle" regulalion ina',' prllvidc" h~cal tclcu,, with a de'fence whic'h ',vould il~ll bc available tll lhcin under dcru'Tulalitnl ~ll liitlle proctmlpelilivc Ic'dclal lcgulalitul. bluet'essi'ul t ' o n i l i e l i l h l n I(o!-er (l. N~dl e l Shilllord t!iliversit~ and IIlUl+'e M. ()','+'eli ill I+l.'t)litllliinln, hie, provide an ;inalysis oI the equiplilt'ill and hnlg-dislance inalku'ls in ('hapicr 5. They beg,hi `'~ith a very clear and hlnightlul analysis and critique of the ,"dFJ and po>,i-di,,eMilurc devclopnlcnl:,i. Roll and ()`'`'eli tlffcr the correct Mandard for judghlg the divcnliture: arc A T & T ' s c'tnnpctittlrs financially ',iablc and c;ul tile'+ rcstlilin A T & T hcUer Ihan the 1:('('7 In the best part ill this chapter, .N~lll ;lnd ()wen explain why Ihcsc conlpanicn c;in restrain A T & T and `'vii', this conlpctitivc policy has I~cl.'n ii nllCCC>,~,. I)evelopnlenls siucc this was v,'rhlu'i+l, inchiding increased toll compctilion, only strengthen lheh" conchinions. The ;itilhol-S, also provide sonic dahi on ielcCtllnlnunic:ilions cquiplncnl and indic+ale lhai its nlarkcl Mruclure i +,, coinpeiitive. They conchlde `'viih a di,+cussion ill the probleins of federal and state r e g u l ; i l o r y c o n f l i c t and the tentlency of the :slalex Io protect icg-
534
u l a t i o n . "While s o m e st'atcs ha'.e m o v e d quickly to deregulate toll scr',ice. thi.,, criticism is certainly justifiu'd for N A R U C (the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners) and many of the states. Professor Hausman and Ehm Kohlberg of the Harvard Business School write about the central office switch in Chapter 6. While they expect this market to rentain c o m p e t i t i v e in the future, they do anticipate some consolidation, following tile norm;il developnlent of businesses ill a competitive tnarket, so that there will be ttlree to five intern:.ltional s`",itch groups reinainhig. Tile)' also p~int out titat tile h o r i z o n t a l separation bctv,'een e'(change ;ind intercxchange services is nol viable in the long rnll. At the salnc tithe the f/cll operating ctmlpanicn (B()('s) are litll likely Ill rely on A T & T and are uncnlhu+~ia'~lic aboul rt.'lying till ethel', for s,,vilch tcc'hnohlgy. Tht-' aullilllS rl.'ctlinln,,.'nt[ lifting the MI:J rcnlric'tiun,, ~,tl thai the l l ( ) ( ' s t'illl cillt.'r inanilfaClilrin~ tn i,,inl velillllt_"++. The aulhors bclicvc lhal Ihc I'aihlrc Io xcnolvc' these isnuen `'viii be dilllgCliiilk io the central office nwitc'h indusiiy in Ihc l I S A . In ('haplcr 7 .l;iincs l~IcKu'lincv ill the I larvald liuniilesn Schtull ;illd I I. lid`'`'+ard N y c c i l l Manufa+.'tUlCrn I I'anli','cr Trust +,lisctl~<, the iniporlallCC tll IclCCOlUlnunicalitln,, and dala for large corpllralions and lhc list.' of SpcCiad tcleconlnlUlliCalioll>, iillan~-c'incnls. They tie iIol, ho,,vu'vL'r, dincu,,,, how the MFJ, the divesliluic or regu l a t i o n affects l c l c c o l n n l u n i c a l i o n s syslenls, nor do they discuss pulicy and fulurc tlcvu'l~pincnln. Ily-pass in tclcconununicalion+, in +~onlcthing ahnonl cvcryonc ha +, hcaid of. T. (}randon (till and I:. \V;ilrc, n Mc'Farlan of the Ihir`"ard lltisiil~.':,n School and the I',ltc Janics, P. O ' N e i l l provide ;I dcsc'ription of how I~y-p;in,, works and ;in explanalitni of why h is Inofit;iblc hi ('hilpier S. They ab,o predict ;i typical '4lake'-out hi Ihc induslry. There is liUlc nc`'v in thin chaplu'r, but it could be a gllod description for a reader unfamiliar `'vith by-pass. Joseph ,~. Ilaylock of Ihc" (farther ( l r o u p . lnc, ,~{cphcn P. I{iadley, and Eric K. (;lelnons of the University of Pennsylvania analyse cllh;itlced i~CI-
+iccs in Chapter 9, and idcntif~ tile characteristic,, and talelltS a COlllpan) w'ould need for succe~,s. The authors do not believe A T & T ' s prospect:, in enhanced services are good, and they belie,,e that A T & T ' s best strateg,, is to enter by' acquisition. Richard L. Nolan, C. Rudv Pur',ear and Dan It. Elron of Nohln, Norton & Co, argue in the last chapter that computer technology is a hidden barricr for the B e e s . The authors criticize the Bees" current systems, but their analysis is not connected to rcgul:.ition, tile MFJ ;utd other developillents ill the industry, ;ind it seems too isolated to be useful for forming policy or strategy. Prediclimis Tim; but,k is not an empirical work. w h i l e many of the topics arc not s u i t a b l e for q u a n t i t a t i v e analysis, tlltlSe hu~khlg for a ri~ol't'~tlSclnphical work will uot find it. It is more ahmg the lines of ;I luturohigy, althtmgh tmc tlsin~ ~ood analysis and niakhlg c;u-eIul I+rcdiction:.,L There is strait rcpv'tili,.nl, but thal is unavtlidablu in a btlok clui~,i,,ling of ;i coilt.'c'litln i l l p;ipcr,,. A,, an t.'xanll'llc', nearly every atllhtlr Icli coinpcllt+,d hi tli:~l.'llSS the MI:J and lhe diveniituie; tliis could have bccn i.'tllitrolled IiIOle carclully. ~Ollie dincunsions tire' belier than otlicrs, alld litany c;in l~c" skipped. ('haptt.'rs 7, S, anti I(I arc i.'crtahlly the ,,ve;ikenl and t.'olltain tht-' Icasl useful inaterial, There are SOlli¢ cas,e studies, but they are nol COlinecll.'d wt-'ll to the tl`"crall lch.'o ~211virtlnlllCill nOF Ill tile illlptlrhtnl pulicy ,ind :,,lraicgic insuc:~. They add little to our tillderslandin~ tif ihc inthixlrv. While ;it fills point there is little hi this book that is ne`'`" Ill s+.lnlc'tinc who Itfllt~`'`'s the indu,,try closely, thin btltlk will I+~_'intire intercnting ttl Iht,nc who are less invtllvcd tin a daily hasis. In this eontL'xl eveu Ihc repetilhm i,, u,
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Stanford L. Levin Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville Edwardsville. IL, USA
POLICY
December
1990
band ISDN can only be implemented bv fibre-optic cable. The fact that the author neglects to state that C C I T T R e c o m m e n d a t i o n G. 114 indicates that delays of 400 msec are acceptable seems odd. The fact that echo suppressors have given way to echo cancellers compounds the errors of omission. One should not be too harsh. Wallenstein's knowledge is encyclopaedic and his direct relationship with players such as Irmer. Ultaut, Vaughan, Witte and others is invaluable. Clearly Willlenstein understands the key issues i n v o l ' c d and can present them ,,','ell. The conflict betv,'een new start-up organizations with innovative services and global interconnection is adroitly explained. On pp 57-5S Wallcnstein even nlilnagcs tO indicate tile relationship and differences among and between tile International Standards Organiz,dion (IS()), tile International I'~lectro-Tcchnical ('onunission (IF,('), tile I T U and tile European groups of ('ent31cc, CI:.N and I-TSI. These may bc the best two pages ill the Ix)ok. I)cspilc tile wealth of infornl,llion anti e x p l a n a t i o n ill W a l l e n s t c i n ' s I)ook, I would hol)C there will be ,i scct)nd edition that would nlake the f()lh)wmg improvenlcnts:
•
cli.niniltc many ()f tile unnecessary, unhelpful and nearly illegible I)oxcs (211 of these could easily bc eliminated and the rest presented ill a readable fl)rnl);
•
•
•
•
•
expand the coverage to include a chapter on terminal e q u i p m e n t standards; provide more information about h o w t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n s standards affect developing countries and how such countries participate in the processes: give further recognition to the problems and existence of private networks (eg SNA) versus public networks: update the text to include more recent developments on A T M . S O N E T , S y n c h r o n o u s Digital t l i e r a r c h y and the prcviot, sly noted problcn~s: p r e s e n t nlore Of ;.Ill o v e r a l l analyt i c a l frame',,'ork r a t h e r t h a n
machine-gunning the facts and figures at the bev,'ildercd readers ill a less than totally clear order. Ill short, Wallculstcin has produced a gem of a book on a very difficult and rapidly evolving subject. It ix. however, a flawed gem, but one deserving ()I" further effort. A second edition c()uld bc :t polished tliiunond gleaming 'vilh insight and knowledge, but ill the meantime the readers Call still gather v;thIc fronl wh;tl wc have.
Joseph N Pelton Graduate Telecommunications Program University of Colorado Boulder, CO, USA
Thoughtful stare into the crystal ball FUTURE COMPETITION IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS
tJlah)rs, a l t o r n e y s w h o re[)rcsenl various groups, a n d ac;.idenlics and con-
edited by Stephen P. Bradley and Jerry A. Hausman Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA, 1989, 340 pp This book began life at a l larvard Business School conference ill 1987. That conference considered the future of t e l c c o n l m u n i c a t i o n s competition from tile point of view of fi"c different groups: providers of telecomnlunicalions goods and services, users, rcg-
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
sultants who study the industry. The book which resulted is, I believe, t a r g e t e d at the informed lay person, and it does a reaso,mbly good job of distinguishing itself from tile many ()tiler t e l c c o n l n l u n i c ; d i o n s b o o k s ill the market. q"he book is c o n u n c n d a b l c fl)r looking at the ftzture and fl)r atleml~ting to understand and predict future telecommunications dcveh)pments. While the book is written on a rcilsonably sophisticated level, it inclndes explanations of much that is basic to an
P O L I C Y December 1990
understanding of today's anti tomorrow's telecommunications markets. It also includes discussions of the state and federal regulatory environment, as well as the legal environment, for telecommunications, particularly pertaining to the MFJ. While much of this material may be quite familiar (it adds relatively little that is new), a more informed reader could easily skim or skip these sections of the book.
Post-divestiture Chapter 1, by Stephen P. Bradley of t larvard Business School and Jerry A. l lausman of MIT, serves as tile introduction to tile volume. This provides a ch.'ar indt,stry background, focusing particularly on post-divestiU~re developnlents. TIle a u t h o r s express SOllle r e s e r v a t i o n s on tile fu(nre o f
MCI and Sprint as conll'jclilors of A T & T since al the lhne lifts was writtell their I)rofits and stock prices were h)w. Today's belier financhd rcsulls and tIle coml)anies' c o n t i n u e d growth
would presumably make the authors IllOl'e optimistic. Bradley and I lausm a n belic'c Ihc long-distance markcl w i l l bc C O m l ) e l i l i v e f o r l a r g e bt,sincsscs, but they arc not clear 'vlu,t 'viii happen flu" smaller businesses and for residential cnslonlcrs. They point OUl thai slale and federal regulalion,
as well as Court restrictions, could be inhibiting conlpetition for these ct,stomers. They also note that telecolnnlunicaliOllS equipment markets are conlpcfitive and should remain so a n d tha! tIle development of information services will be greatly affccled I)y Judge G r e e n e and the MFJ. The nexl two chapters describe tile teleconununicafions indtlstry. Chapter 2, by Richard I I . K . Victor of tile I larvard Business School. pro"ides a good history of A T & T and its regulation. This provides a conlr)rehcnsive background and framework for understanding the tlercgulation which began in tile 196(1s. The description continues through tile divestiture, v.'ith an exl~lanation of what happened and how the industry was reorganized. Professor Victor concludes by pointing out th;,t the rest, lting mixed regime of conlpctithm and regulation is not tenable, as has happened boil)re ill
533
~<,++)~. rt'l'&'xl "+ t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n \ , and >ince ~<., ha~e con'lpetition wc mu,,4 "dra>ticall,. reform cost-based rate regulation and entry restrictions or deregulate" (p %). Peter \%'. t t u b e r adapted part of The Geodesic Nenvork for Chapter 3. For those who have not read the MFJ report, this chapter can serve as a good sumnlarv. | | i s theme, of course. is that the structure of the netv,ork has changed clue to changing technology. M o n o p o l y regulation should end, and we will see what is competitive, inclucting, perhaps especially, local exchange service. Professor lluber seems to believe that hie'q, if not ;ill, of lelecouununic;.itions `",ill be revealed to be competitive. In Chapter 4 Kevin R. Sullivan, an attorney ~vith Pillsbury, Madison & ,'~tltl~, discusses the alttilru,,t issues v,hich `'`"ill aiixc with conlpc'lition and dc'rcgulalion, l i e does ptlinl out, howc'vcr, lhat alilicoinpu'l{ti',L' kirtle" regulalion ina',' prllvidc" h~cal tclcu,, with a de'fence whic'h ',vould il~ll bc available tll lhcin under dcru'Tulalitnl ~ll liitlle proctmlpelilivc Ic'dclal lcgulalitul. bluet'essi'ul t ' o n i l i e l i l h l n I(o!-er (l. N~dl e l Shilllord t!iliversit~ and IIlUl+'e M. ()','+'eli ill I+l.'t)litllliinln, hie, provide an ;inalysis oI the equiplilt'ill and hnlg-dislance inalku'ls in ('hapicr 5. They beg,hi `'~ith a very clear and hlnightlul analysis and critique of the ,"dFJ and po>,i-di,,eMilurc devclopnlcnl:,i. Roll and ()`'`'eli tlffcr the correct Mandard for judghlg the divcnliture: arc A T & T ' s c'tnnpctittlrs financially ',iablc and c;ul tile'+ rcstlilin A T & T hcUer Ihan the 1:('('7 In the best part ill this chapter, .N~lll ;lnd ()wen explain why Ihcsc conlpanicn c;in restrain A T & T and `'vii', this conlpctitivc policy has I~cl.'n ii nllCCC>,~,. I)evelopnlenls siucc this was v,'rhlu'i+l, inchiding increased toll compctilion, only strengthen lheh" conchinions. The ;itilhol-S, also provide sonic dahi on ielcCtllnlnunic:ilions cquiplncnl and indic+ale lhai its nlarkcl Mruclure i +,, coinpeiitive. They conchlde `'viih a di,+cussion ill the probleins of federal and state r e g u l ; i l o r y c o n f l i c t and the tentlency of the :slalex Io protect icg-
534
u l a t i o n . "While s o m e st'atcs ha'.e m o v e d quickly to deregulate toll scr',ice. thi.,, criticism is certainly justifiu'd for N A R U C (the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners) and many of the states. Professor Hausman and Ehm Kohlberg of the Harvard Business School write about the central office switch in Chapter 6. While they expect this market to rentain c o m p e t i t i v e in the future, they do anticipate some consolidation, following tile norm;il developnlent of businesses ill a competitive tnarket, so that there will be ttlree to five intern:.ltional s`",itch groups reinainhig. Tile)' also p~int out titat tile h o r i z o n t a l separation bctv,'een e'(change ;ind intercxchange services is nol viable in the long rnll. At the salnc tithe the f/cll operating ctmlpanicn (B()('s) are litll likely Ill rely on A T & T and are uncnlhu+~ia'~lic aboul rt.'lying till ethel', for s,,vilch tcc'hnohlgy. Tht-' aullilllS rl.'ctlinln,,.'nt[ lifting the MI:J rcnlric'tiun,, ~,tl thai the l l ( ) ( ' s t'illl cillt.'r inanilfaClilrin~ tn i,,inl velillllt_"++. The aulhors bclicvc lhal Ihc I'aihlrc Io xcnolvc' these isnuen `'viii be dilllgCliiilk io the central office nwitc'h indusiiy in Ihc l I S A . In ('haplcr 7 .l;iincs l~IcKu'lincv ill the I larvald liuniilesn Schtull ;illd I I. lid`'`'+ard N y c c i l l Manufa+.'tUlCrn I I'anli','cr Trust +,lisctl~<, the iniporlallCC tll IclCCOlUlnunicalitln,, and dala for large corpllralions and lhc list.' of SpcCiad tcleconlnlUlliCalioll>, iillan~-c'incnls. They tie iIol, ho,,vu'vL'r, dincu,,,, how the MFJ, the divesliluic or regu l a t i o n affects l c l c c o l n n l u n i c a l i o n s syslenls, nor do they discuss pulicy and fulurc tlcvu'l~pincnln. Ily-pass in tclcconununicalion+, in +~onlcthing ahnonl cvcryonc ha +, hcaid of. T. (}randon (till and I:. \V;ilrc, n Mc'Farlan of the Ihir`"ard lltisiil~.':,n School and the I',ltc Janics, P. O ' N e i l l provide ;I dcsc'ription of how I~y-p;in,, works and ;in explanalitni of why h is Inofit;iblc hi ('hilpier S. They ab,o predict ;i typical '4lake'-out hi Ihc induslry. There is liUlc nc`'v in thin chaplu'r, but it could be a gllod description for a reader unfamiliar `'vith by-pass. Joseph ,~. Ilaylock of Ihc" (farther ( l r o u p . lnc, ,~{cphcn P. I{iadley, and Eric K. (;lelnons of the University of Pennsylvania analyse cllh;itlced i~CI-
+iccs in Chapter 9, and idcntif~ tile characteristic,, and talelltS a COlllpan) w'ould need for succe~,s. The authors do not believe A T & T ' s prospect:, in enhanced services are good, and they belie,,e that A T & T ' s best strateg,, is to enter by' acquisition. Richard L. Nolan, C. Rudv Pur',ear and Dan It. Elron of Nohln, Norton & Co, argue in the last chapter that computer technology is a hidden barricr for the B e e s . The authors criticize the Bees" current systems, but their analysis is not connected to rcgul:.ition, tile MFJ ;utd other developillents ill the industry, ;ind it seems too isolated to be useful for forming policy or strategy. Prediclimis Tim; but,k is not an empirical work. w h i l e many of the topics arc not s u i t a b l e for q u a n t i t a t i v e analysis, tlltlSe hu~khlg for a ri~ol't'~tlSclnphical work will uot find it. It is more ahmg the lines of ;I luturohigy, althtmgh tmc tlsin~ ~ood analysis and niakhlg c;u-eIul I+rcdiction:.,L There is strait rcpv'tili,.nl, but thal is unavtlidablu in a btlok clui~,i,,ling of ;i coilt.'c'litln i l l p;ipcr,,. A,, an t.'xanll'llc', nearly every atllhtlr Icli coinpcllt+,d hi tli:~l.'llSS the MI:J and lhe diveniituie; tliis could have bccn i.'tllitrolled IiIOle carclully. ~Ollie dincunsions tire' belier than otlicrs, alld litany c;in l~c" skipped. ('haptt.'rs 7, S, anti I(I arc i.'crtahlly the ,,ve;ikenl and t.'olltain tht-' Icasl useful inaterial, There are SOlli¢ cas,e studies, but they are nol COlinecll.'d wt-'ll to the tl`"crall lch.'o ~211virtlnlllCill nOF Ill tile illlptlrhtnl pulicy ,ind :,,lraicgic insuc:~. They add little to our tillderslandin~ tif ihc inthixlrv. While ;it fills point there is little hi this book that is ne`'`" Ill s+.lnlc'tinc who Itfllt~`'`'s the indu,,try closely, thin btltlk will I+~_'intire intercnting ttl Iht,nc who are less invtllvcd tin a daily hasis. In this eontL'xl eveu Ihc repetilhm i,, u,
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
Stanford L. Levin Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville Edwardsville. IL, USA
POLICY
December
1990