Future demand for forest-based biomass for energy purposes in Sweden

Forest Ecology and Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Forest Ecology and Management journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/foreco

Future demand for forest-based biomass for energy purposes in Sweden Pål Börjesson a,⇑, Julia Hansson b,c, Göran Berndes c a

Environmental and Energy Systems Studies, Lund University, PO Box 118, SE-221OO, Sweden Climate and Sustainable Cities, IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, PO Box 21060, SE-100 31 Stockholm, Sweden c Physical Resource Theory, Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Göteborg, Sweden b

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history: Received 4 April 2016 Received in revised form 23 August 2016 Accepted 15 September 2016 Available online xxxx Keywords: Forest fuels Potential demand Energy services Chemical feedstock Sweden

a b s t r a c t This paper assesses the potential changes in the demand for forest-based biomass for various energy purposes in Sweden in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The assessment is based on a review of scenarios and predictions of how the Swedish energy system may develop, taking into account techno-economical conditions. It includes potential changes in district heating, electricity production in combined heat and power plants, industrial process energy, and production of biofuel for road transportation. In addition, the potential demand for forest-based feedstock in the chemical and petrochemical sector, replacing current use of fossil feedstock, is analysed. The assessment suggests that Sweden may see an additional demand for forest fuels at about 30 TW h in 2030 and 35–40 TW h in 2050. This can be compared with the current use of biomass for energy in Sweden at 130 TW h per year, and the estimated potential increase of sustainable harvest of logging residues (slash and stumps) at some additional 20 TW h per year, based on current conditions. If also potential demand for forest-based feedstock in the chemical and petrochemical industry is included, another 10–15 and 25–30 TW h of biomass per year may be needed in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The future demand is sensitive to the pace and magnitude of energy efficiency improvements and electrification in the various sectors. If far-reaching energy efficiency improvements and electrification are realised, the total additional demand for biomass as energy and industry feedstock may be about 20 and 30 TW h per year in 2030 and 2050, respectively, thus roughly corresponding to the sustainable harvests of logging residues. If, however, efficiency improvements and electrification are only marginal, then the additional demand for biomass as industry and energy feedstock may reach 70 TW h and 100 TW h per year in 2030 and 2050, respectively. In these cases, the use of logging residues will not suffice and additional biomass would be needed. A combination of regulations and incentives is recommended to accelerate the fuel and feedstock switch, especially in the transportation and industrial sectors, and incentives promoting a substantial improvement in energy efficiency and electrification in all sectors. Ó 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction The European Union (EU), has set a long-term goal to develop a competitive, resource-efficient and low carbon economy by 2050 (European Commission, 2011). The transition to a bio-based economy (bioeconomy) is considered a crucial step and the European Commission has formulated a strategy and action plan for a bioeconomy for Europe (European Commission, 2012a). Several individual EU Member States (e.g., Sweden, Germany, and Finland) have designed national bioeconomy strategies and regional agencies and industrial groups have also formulated strategies (de Besi and McCormick, 2015). Biomass is increasingly used to dis-

⇑ Corresponding author.

place non-renewable resources (especially fossil fuels) in response to policies that are designed to address concerns about climate change and energy security, and to promote innovation and growth of biobased industries that use biomass as feedstock. The Swedish strategy for a bioeconomy in 2050 (FORMAS, 2012) focuses on efficient resource use and identifies key themes for further research necessary for a shift to a bioeconomy. Biomass-based energy (bioenergy) is expected to play a key role in reaching Swedish goal of climate neutrality, i.e., no net emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to the atmosphere by 2045 (SOU, 2016; Government Offices of Sweden, 2008). Predictions indicate a significant increase in the use of biomass in the coming decades, for transport, indoor heating, electricity generation and in various industrial processes (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2012).

E-mail address: [email protected] (P. Börjesson). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.09.018 0378-1127/Ó 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article in press as: Börjesson, P., et al. Future demand for forest-based biomass for energy purposes in Sweden. Forest Ecol. Manage. (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.09.018

2

P. Börjesson et al. / Forest Ecology and Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx

The use of biomass for energy in Sweden has increased continuously since the mid-1970s and has been critical in the phasing out of oil use for heating and electricity generation. Today, petroleum is almost exclusively used for transport and bioenergy and petroleum both contributes about 130 TW h per year, i.e., almost onethird each of the total energy supply in Sweden (excluding heat losses in nuclear power production) (Swedish Energy Agency, 2015a). This energy system transition has so far contributed to a reduction in domestic Swedish GHG emissions by some 25% since the 1990s (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2016). Fig. 1 illustrates the supply and final use of biomass-based energy in the Swedish energy system 2014 (Swedish Energy Agency, 2015a). Almost half of the Swedish bioenergy use occurs in the forest industry sector, where by-products and residues are used for generating process heat and for combined heat and power production (CHP) (Swedish Energy Agency, 2015a). The use of forest residues (mainly tops and branches) and organic waste for district heat and CHP production, represents some 30% of the total bioenergy used. The remaining part is used for heat production in single-family houses, etc., and for the production of transportation fuels (Swedish Energy Agency, 2015a). The use of biofuels in the Swedish road transport sector corresponded to about 12% in 2014 (or about 11 TW h per year) (Swedish Energy Agency, 2015b). A minor part of the biomass supply originates from imported biomass, whereas some biomass-based energy carriers, e.g. liquid biofuels, are exported and not included in Fig. 1 (representing a minor part). Sweden has a long-standing political commitment (since the 1970s) to the development of renewable energy. The carbon dioxide (CO2) tax on fossil fuels introduced in 1991 and renewable electricity certificates of 2003 represent two important political incentives behind the significant increase of bioenergy. These incentives have effectively supported an increased use of biomass through, for example, fuel-switching in district heating and the building of new biomass-based CHP plants. The existing infrastructure in the forestry and energy sectors, notably the district heating systems, has facilitated this development. Furthermore, professional actors in these sectors have been able to respond constructively to changes in relative fuel prices (Nilsson et al., 2004). The CO2 tax (and exemption from it), in combination with other national policies related to the EU Renewable Energy Directive

Final use

(RED) implemented in 2009 (European Parliament and Council, 2009), has recently also promoted an increased use of biofuels in the transportation sector (Grahn and Hansson, 2015). However, fossil fuels still provide almost 90% (or about 75 TW h per year) of the energy used for road transports in Sweden (about 30 TW h gasoline and 45 TW h diesel per year) (Swedish Energy Agency, 2015b). Petroleum and some natural gas are also used as fuel (30 TW h per year) and feedstock (25 TW h per year) in the Swedish industrial sector (Eurostat, 2015). This paper complements other papers in this Special Issue, which focus on aspects of biomass production, by presenting an assessment of the potential increase in demand for forest-based biomass for various energy purposes in the coming decades in Sweden. Thus, we investigate whether the historical trend of a continuous increase in bioenergy supply and use, as described above, can be expected to continue also in the future. The paper includes a comprehensive assessment of all various sectors potentially increasing (or decreasing) their use of forest-based bioenergy. This knowledge regarding the total potential increase in future forest fuel demand, where the different sectors are added together, is missing today since existing studies mainly assesses the different sectors separately. The assessment is based on a literature review and evaluation of existing predictions, forecasts and scenarios of how the Swedish energy system may develop until the years 2030 and 2050, with special focus on changes in the use of biomass for energy. The following biomass uses are included: heating and cooling, electricity production by CHP, industrial process energy, and biofuel production. The potential replacement of petroleum and natural gas as feedstock in the Swedish industrial sector is also discussed. Scenarios and forecasts from the recent five years are included in the literature review and evaluation to obtain a current and relevant overview of the biomass uses in question. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) represents one option to reduce fossil carbon emissions more rapidly than what is possible unless society accepts high costs associated with early retirement of the infrastructure that has been built up to enable the use of the fossil resources. CCS has not yet been applied at scale to operational commercial fossil fuel power plants, but could enter the market if incentivized by regulation and/or if they become competitive with their unabated counterparts, e.g., if sufficiently high

Conversion & distribuon

Household Heat producon

Agriculture & forestry Construcon & service

Residenal, service etc.

Public sector Pulp & paper industry

Industry

Supply Wood fuels

Unrefined wood fuels

Black liquor in pulp mills

Refined wood fuels

El. producon

Liquid biofuels

Bio-oil

Organic household waste

Bioethanol

Other solid biofuels

Other liquid biofuels

Wood industry Other industry

Fig. 1. Biomass-based energy in the Swedish energy system 2014 (Swedish Energy Agency, 2015a).

Please cite this article in press as: Börjesson, P., et al. Future demand for forest-based biomass for energy purposes in Sweden. Forest Ecol. Manage. (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.09.018

P. Börjesson et al. / Forest Ecology and Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx

carbon prices become established. As also noted in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, combining bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) offers the prospect of energy supply with large-scale net negative emissions. However, the BECCS option was only to a limited degree considered in the studies that were included in the review (only in one study regarding the industry sector). When assessing the future potential biomass demand, an understanding of related limitations is important. Such limitations can be of technical and economic origin, and may change over time (Egnell and Börjesson, 2012). Due to different limitations and barriers the differences between, for example, the technical potential of an increased demand for forest-based fuels and the market potential in practice may vary significantly. A complementary aim of the paper is to identify and discuss the impact of drivers and barriers for an increase in the use of forest-based biomass for energy in the various sectors. The analyses cover drivers and barriers in relation to policies, including national and EU policies, socio-technical aspects and other institutional- and marketrelated constraints. Finally, it is crucial to point out that the studies included in this assessment may differ in underlining assumptions, systems boundaries, etc., leading to additional uncertainties in the aggregated results presented in this paper. These uncertainties have been handled in complementary sensitivity analyses and weighted judgements of the various data sources utilised.

2. Future demand for forest fuels 2.1. Heating and cooling The heat market in Sweden is equivalent to an energy supply of about 100 TW h per year, including space heating, hot water and distribution losses (Swedish Energy Agency, 2015a). Half of the heat market consists of district heating for which forest biomass is the dominating fuel. The use of biomass in district heating has increased significantly in recent decades, from about 5 TW h per year at the beginning of the 1990s to almost 40 TW h in 2013 (Swedish Energy Agency, 2015a). Biomass (currently about 11 TW h per year) is also used in individual heating systems, mainly in single family housing, in the form of firewood, wood chips and pellets (Swedish Energy Agency, 2015a). The development of district heating depends on several factors including (Rydén et al., 2013): (i) policies; (ii) availability and prices of biomass and other fuels; (iii) technical development relating to efficiency measures (better insulation reducing indoor heat demand but also reduced waste heat generation potentially increasing the heat demand) and other heating options, in particular heat pumps; and (iv) the ability of the industry to adapt to new customer demand and changes in regulations (e.g., regarding prices and net access). The indoor heating demand is expected to decrease in the coming decades, despite an anticipated growth in population and unchanged housing standards, due to improvements in energy efficiency in existing buildings and low energy needs in new buildings. There is a limited potential for further expansion of district heating in Sweden and global warming is expected to reduce the indoor heat demand (Rydén et al., 2013). Sköldberg and Rydén (2014) developed four scenarios for the future Swedish heat market and the related fuel supply, where the indoor heating demand is reduced up to about 40% by 2050, depending on scenario. The use of biomass in individual heating systems is, however, estimated to be almost unchanged, varying between 9 and 12 TW h per year by 2030 and between 7 and 12 TW h per year by 2050. The annual supply of district heating is estimated to be, on average, about 20% (10 TW h) lower than the current level in 2030 and 25%

3

(12 TW h) lower in 2050. How this will affect the biomass use for district heating is, however, not studied in detail in Sköldberg and Rydén (2014). According to the long-term forecast by the Swedish Energy Agency (2014) the annual energy demand for heating in the residential and service sectors may decrease by about 10% by 2030, due to a combination of more energy efficient buildings and an increased utilisation of heat pumps. The annual demand for district heating is also estimated to decrease by some 10% by 2030. The forecast is based on current political incentives and conditions and their consequences on the development of the energy system within the coming one to two decades. Based on a focused study of district heating, Sköldberg et al. (2013) report that the annual delivery of district heat in Sweden may be about 4 TW h lower in 2030. The estimated reduction in district heat demand in existing systems (about 12 TW h reduction until 2030) is partly compensated by demand in new buildings and housing areas (about 8 TW h increase until 2030). This estimate considers technical and economic conditions and limitations. The corresponding effects on the biomass supply in future district heating is not studied in detail. How the mix of fuels and energy carriers will change in the Swedish district heating systems depends on several factors, such as energy prices, policies and economic incentives, the availability of fuels, and technical developments. The long-term forecast by the Swedish Energy Agency (2014) suggests that the share of biomass in district heating may increase from today’s 68% up to 75% in 2030. In absolute terms, this would mean that the supply of biomass for district heating would be almost unchanged, due to the overall reduction in district heat deliveries (Sköldberg et al., 2013). The supply of forest fuels is, however, estimated to decrease since the supply of organic waste fuels for district heating is estimated to continue to increase in the coming decades (Swedish Energy Agency, 2014). It is here estimated that the annual demand for forest fuels in district heating will be about 3–4 TW h lower in 2030 than it is today (including conversion losses). This estimate reflects judgment of several uncertain determining factors and an uncertainty interval of ±2 TW h per year is included in the forthcoming summaries of the future potential demand for forest fuels. Only one of the above cited studies, Sköldberg and Rydén (2014), extends beyond 2030. The middle-range scenarios in this study. where the annual net demand for district heat is reduced by another 2–4 TW h between 2030 and 2050, is used as basis for our average estimate. The reduced district heat demand is here estimated to affect mainly the supply of biomass-based fuels, and equally organic waste fuels and forest fuels. As a result, the forest fuels use for district heat production is 1–2 TW h lower in 2050 than in 2030. Also this estimate includes significant uncertainties and an uncertainty interval of ±2 TW h of forest fuel per year is included in the forthcoming summaries. The delivery of district cooling is increasing rapidly in Sweden today and currently amounts to about 1 TW h per year. Sköldberg et al. (2013) estimate that district cooling may increase to reach about 3 TW h per year by 2030, of which roughly 1 TW h is based on adsorption technology using district heating as an energy source. Thus, it is here assumed that the biomass demand for district cooling may increase by about 1 TW h by 2030, and that this increased demand is met mainly based on the use of forest fuels (Swedish Energy Agency, 2013). The amount of district cooling using district heating as an energy source may increase further in 2050, even though the delivery of district heat is somewhat reduced. An increased use of district cooling using adsorption technology may be driven by better insulated buildings and warmer climate. However, due to uncertainties regarding the development of the different competing district cooling technologies, etc., we assume that the annual forest fuels demand for district cooling will

Please cite this article in press as: Börjesson, P., et al. Future demand for forest-based biomass for energy purposes in Sweden. Forest Ecol. Manage. (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.09.018

4

P. Börjesson et al. / Forest Ecology and Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx

be almost constant in 2050 and equivalent to roughly 1 TW h. An uncertainty interval of ±1 TW h is included, both regarding the forest fuel demand in 2030 and in 2050. 2.2. Electricity production by CHP The current CHP production in district heating systems and in Swedish industry (mainly in pulp mills) corresponds to about 9 and 6 TW h electricity per year, respectively (Swedish Energy Agency, 2015a). This total electricity production by CHP of 15 TW h per year corresponds to about 10% of the overall power production in Sweden. Future biomass use for electricity production by CHP naturally depends on the development for district heating and on the degree of utilisation of installed CHP capacity. It also depends on technology development and preferences concerning different options for providing heating and cooling. Sköldberg et al. (2013) conclude, based on considering technoeconomic aspects, that the production of electricity in district heating systems (CHP) may increase to about 15 TW h per year by 2030, despite that the district heat demand is decreasing (see Section 2.1 above). This means an additional 6 TW h of electricity per year by CHP in 2030, which, according to Sköldberg et al. (2013), is expected to be based primarily on forest fuels, followed by organic waste fuels. According to the long-term forecast by the Swedish Energy Agency (2014), the CHP capacity in district heating systems will increase to deliver on additional 4 TW h of electricity per year by 2030. Also in this study, the additional production is expected to be based on forest fuels, followed by organic waste fuels. As Sköldberg et al. (2013), the Swedish Energy Agency (2014) project an increased electricity production from CHP in district heating systems, despite the expected decrease in district heat demand, through better utilisation of the installed CHP capacity in district heating systems (driven by, for example, improved economic conditions). For example, the running times of the turbines can be extended and new technologies can improve the electricity conversion efficiency, etc. (Svebio, 2015). In addition, new turbines may be installed in district heating systems lacking CHP capacity today, e.g. also in smaller district heating system driven by technology development and thereby improved economic conditions. The forest fuel demand for electricity production in district heating in 2030 is here estimated to amount to be some 4– 5 TW h per year above the current level (including conversion losses). This increased demand for forest fuels can be regarded as ‘‘compensating” for the reduced demand for forest fuels for heat production in district heating systems (which does not include the forest fuels used for power production) (see Section 2.1). The future district heat demand is one of the most critical uncertainties for this estimated potential (Sköldberg et al., 2013). To cover uncertainties, an uncertainty interval equivalent to ±2 TW h from forest fuels per year is included. Based on the assumption above that the annual district heat demand may decrease by, on average, 2–4 TW h from 2030 to 2050 (see Section 2.1), it is here estimated that this lead to a corresponding reduction in annual electricity production by CHP by 1–2 TW h (power to heat ratio of 0.5) (Sköldberg et al., 2013). The demand for forest fuels for electricity production by CHP in district heating systems is assumed to decrease between 2030 and 2050 by an equivalent amount, or by 1–2 TW h per year (including conversion losses and an overall conversion efficiency in CHP at 0.85), since forest fuels are estimated to be the dominating fuel in CHP production (Sköldberg et al., 2013). This reduction in forest fuel demand is additional to the estimated reduction in forest fuels for district heating (which does not include the amount of forest fuels used for the electricity production by CHP) between 2030 and 2050 (see Section 2.1). Due to the significant uncertain-

ties, an uncertainty interval equivalent to ±2 TW h from forest fuels per year is included. The biomass-based electricity production by CHP in Swedish industry is estimated to increase in the coming decades. According to the long-term forecast by the Swedish Energy Agency (2014), based on current conditions and political incentives, the annual electricity production by CHP in Swedish industry may increase by about 2 TW h in the period up to 2030. Sköldberg et al. (2013) estimates the techno-economic potential of increased electricity production by CHP in Swedish industry in 2030 to about 3 TW h per year, mainly in the pulp industry. The dominating fuel is in both studies expected to be forest-based biomass. Accordingly, it is here estimated that the increased annual demand for forest fuels for electricity production in industrial CHP until 2030 is equivalent to 2–3 TW h (including conversion losses). An uncertainty interval corresponding to ±2 TW h from forest fuels per year is included. The electricity production by CHP in industry is assumed to be similar in 2050 as in 2030, leading to an unchanged demand of forest fuels. Sköldberg et al. (2013) shows a declining increase in CHP potential until 2030, and this trend is here assumed to continue until 2050. Since this is a rather uncertain estimation, an uncertainty interval equivalent to ±2 TW h from forest fuels per year is included. A study by the Swedish Bioenergy Association (Svebio, 2015) suggests that the total theoretical potential for increased electricity production by biomass-based CHP, including district heating systems, industry and small-scale biomass-based heat production, may be significantly higher than the techno-economical potentials described above. The maximum technical potential increase in biomass-based CHP until 2040 was estimated by a broad expert panel to correspond to an annual electricity production at 25– 30 TW h (Svebio, 2015). However, reaching such a level of expansion would require both technological development and more effective political incentives. 2.3. Process energy in industry Energy requirements in the Swedish industry currently amount to about 143 TW h per year, equivalent to roughly 38% of the total energy used in Sweden (Swedish Energy Agency, 2015a). Biomass contributes 38% of the primary energy supply in industry. About 70% of the bioenergy use occurs in the forest industry (pulp and paper mills and saw mills) where black liquor constitute an important part. The contribution of biomass and electricity has continuously increased in recent decades, leading to a significant reduction in industrial use of oil. The current trend of an increased use of bioenergy and electricity in Swedish industry, and a reduced use of fossil-based energy, is expected to continue in the coming decades (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2012). Ericsson et al. (2015) developed five different scenarios for a future low-carbon energy supply in Swedish industry by 2050. The scenarios include different assumptions about future energy demand and the development of energy technologies and use of energy carriers (including CCS), but all scenarios include reduced fossil fuel use. The scenarios represent technical potentials, excluding economic and other limitations. In all scenarios except one (which assumes a major electrification of industrial processes) the demand for bioenergy increases significantly. Based on data from the ‘‘mid-range” scenarios presented by Ericsson et al. (2015), which include the development of both electrification and biomass utilisation, the annual increased demand for forest biomass is here estimated to be 17–18 TW h in 2050, with an uncertainty between 10 and 25 TW h. This include all major industry sectors in Sweden, such as steel, chemical, mining, concrete, paper- and pulp industry. The overall energy conversion

Please cite this article in press as: Börjesson, P., et al. Future demand for forest-based biomass for energy purposes in Sweden. Forest Ecol. Manage. (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.09.018

P. Börjesson et al. / Forest Ecology and Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx

efficiency from forest fuels to final energy carriers is assumed to be, on average, 80% (Börjesson et al., 2013). According to a rough estimation, based on an assumed linear increase in forest-fuel demand in the industrial sector from today to 2050, the corresponding increased demand in 2030 will be, on average, 7–8 TW h, with an uncertainty between 4 and 10 TW h. For comparison, the long-term forecast by the Swedish Energy Agency (2014) estimates that the forest-based biomass used for energy in the Swedish industrial sector will increase by some 5 TW h until 2030, assuming current conditions and political incentives. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the increase may be somewhat higher depending on the economic development and future fuel prices. Today, the Swedish industrial sector annually uses some 25 TW h fossil feedstock where the chemical and petrochemical sectors use about 20 TW h per year (Eurostat, 2015). Based on the ‘‘mid-range” scenarios presented by Ericsson et al. (2015), and an average overall energy conversion efficiency at 65% from forest biomass to platform chemicals, the demand for forest biomass is here estimated to be roughly 28–30 TW h in 2050, with an uncertainty between 20 and 40 TW h. The corresponding demand around 2030 is assumed to be, on average, 12–13 TW h, with an uncertainty between 8 and 17 TW h. 2.4. Biofuels Biofuels accounted for about 12% of the total transport fuel use in Sweden in 2014 (Swedish Energy Agency, 2015b). Biodiesel (hydro-treated vegetable oils, HVO, and fatty acid methyl esters, FAME), contributed 65% of biofuel supply, followed by ethanol, 25%, and biogas, 10% (Swedish Energy Agency, 2015b). About 60% of the feedstock consists of agricultural crops (cereals, oil crops, sugar beet, sugar cane, etc.) while waste and by-products (e.g., waste oil and fat from the food industry, tall oil from the pulp mills) contributed the remaining 40% (Swedish Energy Agency, 2015c). Less than 10% of current domestic biofuel production is based on forest biomass (Swedish Energy Agency, 2015c). A governmental investigation analysed in 2013 the possibilities to reach a fossil-independent road transportation sector in Sweden by 2030, representing the vision of the Swedish Government (SOU, 2013). Five critical categories of measures were identified. Three included more efficient transport systems and vehicles and improved infrastructure, one category assumed the electrification of road transport. The last category of measures included biofuels and their potential increase. The investigation presented two scenarios for the Swedish transportation sector until 2050, one illustrating a significant reduction in GHG emissions and one illustrating a lower reduction. Both scenarios were expected to be techno-economically feasible. The domestic use of biofuels is estimated to increase in both scenarios to reach an annual use equivalent to 20 or 15 TW h in 2030 and 13 or 20 TW h in 2050 (SOU, 2013). The decrease in biofuel use between 2030 and 2050 in the more optimistic scenario is due to the assumed lower total transportation demand and greater electrification of transport in 2050 in this scenario. Forest-based biomass is assumed to be the main feedstock for the increase in domestic biofuel production and a possible export potential of biofuels is indicated in the more optimistic scenario. A biofuel demand at 15–20 TW h corresponds to a forest feedstock demand at 23–30 TW h, assuming an energy conversion efficiency from forest biomass to biofuel of 65%, representing the average value in modern forest fuel-based biofuel production systems now under development, which may vary between 55 and 70% (Börjesson et al., 2013). The chosen average conversion factor is judged to be realistic if assuming a continuous development until 2050. Future biofuel production is, like today, estimated to

5

be partly based on non forest-based biomass, such as agriculture crops and organic waste. A rough estimation is that one third of the biofuels will be based on non forest-based biomass, whereas two thirds will be based on forest-based biomass. This leads to a total future demand for forest fuels equivalent to some 15– 20 TW h per year. As the current amount of forest-based biomass (tall oil) used for biofuel production in Sweden corresponds to roughly 1 TW h, the additional demand for forest fuels corresponds to about 14–19 TW h. In order to contribute to the development of a national roadmap to reach the vision of net zero GHG emissions by mid-century (Government Offices of Sweden, 2008), the Swedish Transport Administration produced scenarios for the potential development of the transport sector (Swedish Transport Administration, 2012). The domestic use of biofuels is estimated to be about 14 TW h in 2030 and 18 TW h in 2050 in all the scenarios in Swedish Transport Administration (2012) except one that reports about 7 TW h of biofuels in both 2030 and 2050 by assuming technological development solely based on current decisions. In the most recent version of the scenarios that the Swedish Energy Agency has produced every other year as a basis for the national reporting on potential GHG emissions to the EU, the total use of biofuels is estimated to be about 15 TW h in 2030 (Swedish Energy Agency, 2014). Thus, the majority of the scenarios from the Swedish Transport Administration (2012) and Swedish Energy Agency (2014) are in the same range as SOU (2013). Based on a mapping of the prospects from the current and potential Swedish biofuel producers, Grahn and Hansson (2015) found that, if existing domestic biofuel production continues and all mapped plans for additional biofuel production become realised, the Swedish production in 2030 would correspond to about 26 TW h of biofuels. In a scenario where the realization of the mapped biofuels plans is delayed by 5 years and the pace of continued implementation of additional biofuel capacity is slightly reduced, the potential domestic biofuels production is reduced to about 20 TW h of biofuels in 2030. Thus, this assessment includes both technical and economic preconditions. However, considering the share of biofuels assumed to be produced from crops and nonforest wastes in Grahn and Hansson (2015) at roughly 30%, the remaining potential domestic production of biofuels corresponds to a total forest feedstock demand of about 19–28 TW h in 2030 using the energy conversion efficiency of 65% (Börjesson et al., 2013). This corresponds to an additional future forest biomass demand of about 18–27 TW h. However, it is not stated that the entire production will be used for the domestic demand of biofuels (Grahn and Hansson, 2015). Based on the various assessments described above, a rough estimation is that the demand for forest biomass for biofuel production may increase by, on average, some 18–20 TW h per year until 2030, with an uncertainty between 14 and 27 TW h per year. The demand is estimated to be almost unchanged between 2030 and 2050, but with a somewhat increased uncertainty, between 12 and 27 TW h per year. 2.5. Summary of total future potential increased demand for forest biomass Based on the various assessments presented in the sections above, the estimated differences in the demand for forest fuels in different sectors in Sweden 2030 and 2050, respectively, compared to the current uses of forest fuels, are given in Table 1, also including uncertainty ranges. These uncertainty ranges cover the upper and lower levels from the weighted judgements presented in the previous sections but also differences between the data sources complied in this paper regarding different underlining assumptions, system boundaries, etc. The additional domestic demand

Please cite this article in press as: Börjesson, P., et al. Future demand for forest-based biomass for energy purposes in Sweden. Forest Ecol. Manage. (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.09.018

6

P. Börjesson et al. / Forest Ecology and Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx

Table 1 Estimated differences in the demand for forest fuels in different sectors in Sweden 2030 and 2050, respectively, compared to the current uses of forest fuels. The potential demand for forest-based feedstock to replace fossil feedstock in the industrial sector is also included. The assessment is based on the references described in the text. The differences compared with current use of biomass are given within parentheses (in %). Energy service/carrier

Sector

2030

2050

Estimated average (TW h/year) Heat

a

District heating (DH)

4 to

3 ( 10%)

Potential

Interval (TW h/year)

Estimated average (TW h/year)

Interval (TW h/year)

6 to 4 ( 15 to 10%) 0

8 to 2 ( 20 to 5%) 4 to 1 ( 40 to +10%)

Technoeconomic Technoeconomic Technoeconomic Technoeconomic

Individual heating

0

6 to 1 ( 15 to 3%) 2 to 1 ( 20 to +10%)

Cooling

District cooling

1 (a)

0–2 (a)

1 ( a)

0–2 (a)

Electricity production

Combined heat and power production (CHP) in DH’s CHP in industry

4–5 (+40 to 50%)

2–7 (+20 to +70%)

2–4 (+20 to +40%)

0–6 (0 to +60%)

2–3 (+30 to +40%)

0–5 (0 to +70%)

2–3 (+30 to 40%)

0–5 (0–70%)

Process energy

Industry

7–8 (+15%)

4–10 (+7 to +20%)

17–18 (+30%)

Biofuels

Road transport

Feedstock

Chemical and petrochemical industry

18–20 (+160 to 180%) 12–13 (a)

14–27 (+130 to +240%) 8–17 (a)

18–20 (+160 to +180%) 28–30 (a)

10–25 (+20 to 45%) 12–27 (+110 to +240%) 20–40 (a)

Total-energy

28–34 (+22 to 26%)

34–42 (+26 to 32%)

Total-including feedstock

40–47 (+30–36%)

12–51 (+9 to +40%) 20–68 (+15 to +52%)

62–72 (+48 to +55%)

Technoeconomic Technical Technoeconomic Technical

10–64 (+8 to +50%) 30–104 (+23 to +80%)

Insignificant use of biomass today.

for forest biomass in 2030, above the current use, is estimated as about 30 TW h per year (uncertainty range: 10–50 TW h per year), which corresponds to roughly 25% of the current total supply of biomass in the Swedish energy system. The additional domestic demand in 2050, above the current use, is estimated at about 35–40 TW h forest fuels per year, (uncertainty range: 10– 60 TW h per year). The largest increases in future forest fuel demands are associated with biofuels for transport followed by process energy in the industrial sector. The forest fuel demand for electricity production by CHP is also estimated to increase, whereas the demand associated with heat production in the housing sector is estimated to decrease. If the demand for forest biomass as a renewable feedstock in the chemical and petrochemical industry is included, then the total additional annual forest biomass demand may increase by another 10–15 and 25–30 TW h in 2030 and 2050, respectively. This total increase in demand is equivalent to some additional 30–35% and 50–55% amount of biomass, respectively, compared with current supply (see Table 1). A conclusion from the literature review of existing predictions, forecasts and scenarios included in this assessment is that are two crucial parameters affecting the future demand for forest biomass as energy and industry feedstock. Those are the status of the improvements in energy efficiency and the extent to which the electrification in the various sectors has been effected. Examples are the increase in heat pumps in the housing sector and district heating (see e.g. Swedish Energy Agency, 2014; Sköldberg and Rydén, 2014; Sköldberg et al., 2013), battery and hybrid electric vehicles in the transport sector (see e.g. Swedish Energy Agency, 2014; SOU, 2013; Swedish Transport Administration, 2012), and electro-based processes and hydrocarbons as feedstock in industry (see e.g. Ericsson et al., 2015; Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2012). The lower-end values in the intervals in Table 1 correspond to scenarios with substantial energy efficiency improvements in combination with electrification in all of the various sectors, thus demanding less forest-based fuels and feedstock in the future. Higher-end values correspond to scenarios with slow improvements in energy efficiency and a limited electrification in all sectors, leading to a higher forest fuel demand.

3. Uncertainties associated with policies, industrial development, and international bioenergy trade The estimates summarized in Table 1 reflect technical or techno-economic considerations, but also include inherent uncertainties. Many other aspects are influential and can represent barriers as well as drivers of development. For example, the forest fuel demand may become significantly lower than what is indicated by the techno-economic potential due to that existing policy regimes are not sufficiently attractive in the eyes of actors investing into renewable energy technologies. Some barriers may be of structural origin, be related to consumer preferences, development of other competing options, inexperience of actors or potential collaborations, etc. Other barriers to an increased use of forest-based biomass include social opposition to intensified forestry, the currently low oil price, and possibly an implementation of sustainability requirements in the EU that restricts forest fuel supplies. Thus, to what extent the technical or techno-economic potential will be realised in the future depends on a multitude of factors. Below, influence of policies, industrial development, and international bioenergy trade are briefly discussed.

3.1. Policies As already indicated, the use of biomass and other renewable energy sources in Swedish district heating systems is promoted by energy and CO2 taxes on fossil fuels (renewable fuels are exempt from such taxes) and the renewable electricity certificate system promoting renewable electricity generation (Government Offices of Sweden, 2011). The use of biomass is also influenced to some extent by the tax on landfilling with ash (Swedish Waste Management Association, 2014). The development of district heating is influenced by the EU energy efficiency directive of 2012, including measures to reach the energy efficiency target of saving 20% of the EU primary energy consumption by 2020 (European Parliament and Council, 2012). The design of national building regulations also seems to influence the development of district heating, potentially influencing the demand for forest based biomass

Please cite this article in press as: Börjesson, P., et al. Future demand for forest-based biomass for energy purposes in Sweden. Forest Ecol. Manage. (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.09.018

P. Börjesson et al. / Forest Ecology and Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx

(National Board of Housing, Building and Planning, 2011). Thus, existing incentives are estimated to affect the future demand for biomass-based energy in district heating in both directions. Energy and CO2 taxes also influence the energy use in Swedish industry. However, when the CO2 tax was introduced in the early 1990s, the tax rate for industries was lower than for the service sector and households (SOU, 2016). When emission trading was introduced in 2005, industries in the EU Emission Trading System (ETS) were exempt from CO2 tax, but other industries still had a reduced CO2 tax (Government Offices of Sweden, 2004). Between 2011 and 2016, this tax reduction has been reduced and it will be eliminated entirely in 2018 when industries outside the emission trading system will have to pay the full CO2 tax, equivalent to that paid by enterprises in the service sector (SOU, 2016). Sweden had a Program for Improving Energy Efficiency in Energy Intensive Industries (PFE), which referred primarily to energy management systems for energy efficiency, that also had positive spinoff effects in the form of a greater share of renewable energy, e.g. biomass (Government Offices of Sweden, 2011). The future development of climate-related policies will be a driver behind future shifts in the use of technology, energy carriers and raw material in Swedish industry (Ericsson et al., 2015). An estimation is that current incentives will lead to a continuous increase in the use of forest fuels in the industrial sector, but the pace will be sensitive to, for example, the future prices of CO2 emission certificates. The development of biofuels for transport in the EU and Sweden has, to a considerable extent, been policy driven. The share of biofuels amounted to about 12% of the total fuel use for transport in 2014, i.e., already above the 10% share stipulated for 2020 in the RED (European Parliament and Council, 2009). Sweden has and has had several different national policies stimulating the production and use of renewable fuels for transport, as well as for associated vehicles. These have included, e.g., energy and carbon tax exemption for renewable fuels, vehicle tax exemption for green cars (that in turn replaced a green car premium), benefits value for certain green cars, mandatory availability of renewable fuels at all fuel retail outlets, investment support for biogas and other renewable gases, CO2-differentiated annual vehicle tax, and premiums promoting sales of ‘‘super green” car (Government Offices of Sweden, 2013). A quota system for biofuels for transport was planned to become operative in 2014, but was not implemented since the proposed policy package had not been approved by the EU (Government Offices of Sweden, 2014). Despite considerable efforts by the Swedish government to promote biofuels, policy frames are often discussed in Sweden as a constraint to progress (Peck et al., 2015; Grahn and Hansson, 2015). In general, three key themes are raised in such discussions: lack of direction, inadequate time horizons and flow-on effects of EU policy interventions addressing concerns about indirect land use changes. The uncertainty introduced by the drawn-out implementation of the proposed amendment of the EU’s fuel quality directive and the RED (European Commission, 2012b) is one example of how unclear policy direction may have slowed development. Shorttermism in the Swedish policies related to biofuels (and changing views on which fuel to promote) has been observed to constrain key developments in recent years – in particular in relation to domestic production of forest-based biofuels (Peck et al., 2015). Here, the large capital investments imply high risks and a need for cash f low stability for longer periods (a decade or more), but current time horizons for supporting policies are shorter than that. The introduction of stricter requirements associated with EU biofuel policies (e.g., to a larger extent considering indirect land use change and demanding higher GHG reductions) may cause difficulties for a few existing biofuel options to meet future requirements, likely to increase the demand for forest-based biofuels. Future

7

Swedish policies concerning renewable fuels for transport will also have a crucial impact on the development of forest-based biofuels in Sweden. In order to increase the domestic production and use, the policy makers need to implement a successful policy mix. The RED is expected to include mandatory sustainability criteria also for solid biomass used for heat and power production, and not only for liquid and gaseous biofuels for transport, which may influence the future supply potential for forest fuels (Section 3.3). 3.2. Industrial development Industrial development, not the least in the Swedish forest sector (pulp and paper mills and saw mills) influences the future demand for forest biomass in Swedish industries. The development will depend on how the demand for products changes nationally as well as internationally. An estimation by the Swedish Forest Agency (2015) is that the market for forest-based products will continue to expand in the coming decades. How this influences the Swedish forest sector, including the forest fuel demand, will depend on the evolving structure and international competitiveness of the Swedish forest industry, which in turn depend on, e.g., energy and raw material prices, and how policies are shaped to promote an emerging bioeconomy (Ericsson et al., 2015). The demand for forest biomass will also depend on future process efficiencies and the development for CCS and BECCS. Further, an increased use of biofuels in the transport sector may act as a driver for an increased use of biomass in the industrial sector by requiring that parts of the petrochemical industry use non-fossil raw material (Ericsson et al., 2015). Concerning biofuels for transport there seem to be multiple and conflicting opinions on which biorefining strategy to pursue (i.e., priority for biofuels vs. other products when resources are limited) and which biofuel to produce from forest resources. There are also different views regarding the importance of cooperation between the forest industries and the petrochemical industry (Peck et al., 2015). Structural shifts in the forest industry and stable interaction with other industrial actors may be important. The need for additional infrastructure, dedicated engine platforms and logistics issues for some forest-based biofuels all pose constraints of various significance on the development of these. Factors such as vested industrial interests, consumer preferences, competing pathways for technological development in the transport sector also influence the development of different biofuel pathways (Peck et al., 2015). 3.3. International biomass and bioenergy trade It is indicated by the National Renewable Energy Action Plans that bioenergy will contribute about 55% of the projected renewable energy supply in EU by 2020 (Beurskens et al., 2011). Forest biomass is expected to contribute considerably (Berndes et al., 2010). Several EU member states consider biomass/biofuel imports an important part of their renewable energy strategy and biomass/ bioenergy trade is expected to increase further (Hoefnagels et al., 2014). Sweden is estimated to have the highest supply potential for forest biomass in the medium (2030) term (Verkerk et al., 2011) and international demand for Swedish forest-based biomass may increase in the future. The expected introduction in the EU of mandatory sustainability criteria for solid and gaseous biomass/biofuels (for heat and power production, complementing the criteria for biofuels for transport) might, depending on the design, influence the demand for Swedish forest biomass for energy due to its potential to limit the supply of eligible biomass. If sustainability requirements limit the use of conventional crops or other biomass fractions, the demand for forest-based biomass might increase, possibly leading

Please cite this article in press as: Börjesson, P., et al. Future demand for forest-based biomass for energy purposes in Sweden. Forest Ecol. Manage. (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.09.018

8

P. Börjesson et al. / Forest Ecology and Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx

to an increased demand for imported forest biomass from other EU member states (Lamers et al., 2015; Hansson and Hackl, 2016). In addition, if it turns out to be difficult to implement and to prove the fulfillment of sustainability requirements (including sustainable forest management) in some countries with considerable biomass supply potentials, due to challenges to enforce legislation, this could also increase the demand for Swedish forest-based biomass for energy (Hansson and Hackl, 2016). 4. Comparison with possible future supply Biodiversity considerations, associated with the environmental objective Sustainable Forests, restrict forest residue harvest. According to de Jong et al. (2016) in this special issue, a sustainable supply of forest residues (i.e., not conflicting with the environmental quality objectives in Sweden) could today potentially be at the level of 20 TW h per year from final fellings. If also the potential supply from thinnings is included, the level will increase to about 28 TW h per year. The potential increase in forest biomass supply, based on current conditions and taking into account the current harvest of forest residues in Sweden (varying between 6 and 10 TW h), will then amount to some 18–22 TW h per year. This correspond to roughly 70% and 55% of the estimated (average) additional demand for forest fuels in 2030 and 2050, respectively, or some 45% (2030) and 30% (2050) of total additional forest biomass demand if also the possible use of biomass as a feedstock in the chemical and petrochemical industries is considered (see Fig. 2). However, if substantial and rapid energy efficiency improvements and electrification are accomplished in all sectors, it may be possible to meet the total additional biomass demand with forest residues. Increasing bioenergy demand over time can stimulate investments into enhanced forest production, but might also lead to escalating risks of unsustainable harvest levels of forest residues. Measures promoting biodiversity might allow higher harvest levels for forest residues, e.g., adding brush-wood, restoration management of deciduous woodlands. A complementary expedient is the

use of new steering mechanisms at the landscape level to facilitate the selection of areas and substrates of low conservation value (de Jong et al., 2016). This may also lead to an increased potential of a sustainable supply of forest residues, thus higher than the estimated 18–22 TW h based on current conditions (see Fig. 2). Further, alternative sources such as pulpwood quality logs may be used as energy and industrial feedstock. Cintas et al. (2016) in this special issue, presents illustrative calculations of biomass volume and greenhouse gas implications of using pulpwood for bioenergy instead of pulp and paper production. Sweden may increase wood imports and may also import increasing volumes of solid or liquid biofuels. However, as noted above, it may be more realistic to expect that Sweden will become a net exporter of forest fuels rather than a net importer. Another option is to increase the supply of biomass from the agricultural sector, as a complement to forest fuels. According to Börjesson et al. (2013), the biomass supply potential in Swedish agriculture within the coming decades, taking into account environmental and technical constraints, is estimated at some 20– 25 TW h per year. Thus, this potential is roughly equivalent to the potential for forest fuels as estimated by de Jong et al. (2016). The biomass potential from agriculture includes crop residues, such as straw, manure and other organic waste products for biogas production, energy crops on excess arable land, such as fallow land, and plantations of fast-growing, broad-leaved trees (e.g. poplar and hybrid aspen) on abandoned, former agricultural land. The total potential increased supply of sustainable biomass from forestry and agriculture may then amount to roughly 40– 50 TW h per year, i.e., higher than the average of estimated additional biomass demand for energy in 2030 and 2050. Thus, the combined output from agriculture and forestry may come a far way towards meeting biomass demand for energy as well as industry uses. The higher values in the intervals in Fig. 2 (see also Table 1) indicate that the maximum potential biomass demands in 2030 and 2050 may amount to some 70 TW h and 100 TW h per year, respectively. These levels are three to five times higher than the

120

2030

2050

100

TWh / year

80

60

Base case- Low Base case - high

40

Future increase by compensaon measures etc.

Current condions

20

0 Demand - forest Demand - forest Demand - forest Demand - forest Supply - forest fuels fuels & feedstock fuels fuels & feedstock fuels (de Jong et al., 2016) Fig. 2. Summary of potential increased demand of forest fuels for energy purposes in Sweden, and as feedstock in the chemical and petrochemical industry replacing fossil feedstock, in 2030 and 2050, respectively, and in comparison with potential sustainable increased supply of forest fuels based on current conditions, according to de Jong et al. (2016). The uncertainty intervals indicate the differences in forest fuel demand due to the magnitude energy efficiency improvement and electrification in the various sectors (see also Table 1). Potential additional increase in future sustainable supply of forest fuels by implementing various compensation measures in forestry is also indicated.

Please cite this article in press as: Börjesson, P., et al. Future demand for forest-based biomass for energy purposes in Sweden. Forest Ecol. Manage. (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.09.018

P. Börjesson et al. / Forest Ecology and Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx

possible increase in sustainable forest residue harvest estimated by de Jong et al. (2016), based on current conditions, and up to twice as high as the estimated total biomass supply when also considering agriculture sources. As stated above, other sources of domestic wood and biomass imports can provide complementary supplies, but the above comparison nevertheless demonstrates the importance of reinforcing the incentives to develop much more resource-efficient systems so as to limit the demand for bioenergy in all sectors. 5. Conclusion While the future forest fuel demand is sensitive to the pace and magnitude of energy efficiency improvements and electrification in the various sectors, it can be concluded that Sweden may experience significant demand growth in the coming decades. An increasing use of forest-based feedstock in the chemical and petrochemical industry may add substantially to the growth in total demand for forest biomass. Thus, without substantial energy efficiency improvements and electrification in all sectors, the potential demand exceeds the potential supply of sustainable domestic forest fuels based on current conditions. At the same time, there are many influential factors that are uncertain, which makes it difficult to confidently estimate the future forest fuel demand. There are also many barriers against increased use of forest-based fuels and feedstock in different sectors, especially in the road transport sector and in the industrial sector. Reaching the lower-end levels of forest fuel demand calculated in this study requires that policies promoting a further switch from fossil resources to biomass are strengthened. To ensure that a continuous increase in the use of forest fuels is sustainable in the long term, there is a need for guidelines and steering mechanism that reflect a broader landscape perspective. There is a large scope for increasing biomass output in forestry as well as in agriculture, but biomass demand growth may still cause high pressure on domestic resources. Sensible approaches to promote increased biomass production in sustainably managed landscapes should be developed in parallel with incentives for shifting from fossil to biomass-based resources. But these should be combined with strong efforts to achieve substantial improvements in energy and resource efficiency as a way to moderate overall resource demand. Acknowledgements We gratefully acknowledge the economic support received from the Swedish Energy Agency within the Solid biomass program (Bränsleprogrammet). This publication is partly the result of projects within the Renewable fuels and systems program (Samverkansprogrammet Förnybara drivmedel och system), financed by the Swedish Energy Agency and the Swedish Knowledge Centre for Renewable Transportation Fuels (f3). The f3 Centre contributes, through knowledge based on science, to the development of environmentally, economically and socially sustainable and renewable transportation fuels, as part of a future sustainable society (see www.f3centre.se/samverkansprogram). Economic support from the Swedish Research Council Formas is also acknowledged. References Berndes, G., Hansson, J., Egeskog, A., Johnsson, F., 2010. Strategies for 2nd generation biofuels in EU – Co-firing to stimulate feedstock supply development and process integration to improve energy efficiency and economic competitiveness. Biomass Bioenergy 34 (2), 227–236. Beurskens, L.W.M., Hekkenberg, M., Vethman, P., 2011. Renewable Energy Projections as Published in the National Renewable Energy Action Plans of

9

the European Member States Covering all 27 EU Member States with updates for 20 Member States, ECN-E–10-069. ECN, the Netherlands Available at: (accessed February 23, 2016). Börjesson, P., Lundgren, J., Ahlgren, S., Nyström, I., 2013. Dagens och framtida hållbara biodrivmedel. Underlagsrapport från f3 till Utredningen om FossilFri Fordonstrafik (SOU 2013:84). f3-rapport 2013:13. Svenskt Kunskapscenter för Förnybara Drivmedel (in Swedish). Cintas, O., Berndes, G., Hansson, J., Poudel, B.C., Berg, J., Börjesson, P., Egnell, G., Lundmark, T., Nordin, A., 2016. The potential role of forest management in Swedish scenarios towards climate neutrality by mid century. For. Ecol. Manage. (This Special Issue). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.07.015. de Besi, M., McCormick, K., 2015. Towards a bioeconomy in Europe: national, regional and industrial strategies. Sustainability 7, 10461–10478. http://dx.doi. org/10.3390/su70810461. de Jong, J., Akselsson, C., Egnell, G., Löfgren, S., Olsson, B., 2016. The energy potential from forest biomass in Sweden – how much is sustainable? For. Ecol. Manage. (This Special Issue) Egnell, G., Börjesson, P., 2012. Theoretical versus Market Available Supply of Biomass for Energy from Long-rotation Forestry and Agriculture – Swedish Experiences. International Energy Agency, IEA Bioenergy Task 43, Report 2012:02. Ericsson, K., Johansson, B., Nilsson, L.J., Åhman, M., 2015. Industrins långsiktiga utveckling i samspel med energisystemet. Rapport ER 2015:18. Energimyndigheten, Eskilstuna (in Swedish). European Commission, 2011. A Roadmap for Moving to a Competitive Low Carbon Economy in 2050, COM (2011)112 final, Brussels, 2011. European Commission, 2012a. Innovating for Sustainable Growth: a Bioeconomy for Europe, Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions COM (2012) 60 Final. European Commission, Brussels, Belgium, p. p. 9. European Commission, 2012b. Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive 98/70/EC Relating to the Quality of Petrol and Diesel Fuels and Amending Directive 2009/28/EC on the Promotion of the Use of Energy from Renewable Sources, COM (2012) 595 final, Brussels 17.10.2012. European Parliament and Council, 2009. Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the council of 23 April 2009 on the Promotion of the use of Energy from Renewable Sources and Amending and Subsequently Repealing Directives 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/EC, 2009. European Parliament and Council, 2012. Directive 2012/27/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 25 October 2012 on energy efficiency, amending Directives 2009/125/EC and 2010/30/EU and repealing Directives 2004/8/EC and 2006/32/EC. Available at: . Eurostat, 2015. EU Energy Balance Sheet 2013. FORMAS, 2012. Swedish Research and Innovation Strategy for a Bio-Based Economy; R3:2012. Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS), Stockholm, Sweden, p. 36. Government Offices of Sweden, 2014. Regeringens Proposition (Government Bill) 2013/14:246 - Lagen om kvotplikt för biodrivmedel och relaterade skattebestämmelser utgår (The Law on Quota System for Biofuels and Related Taxes Is Omitted). Government Offices of Sweden (Regeringskansliet), Stockholm. Available at: (in Swedish). Government Offices of Sweden, 2013. Sweden’s Second Progress Report on the Development of Renewable Energy Pursuant to Article 22 of Directive 2009/28/ EC Available at: . Government Offices of Sweden, 2011. Sweden’s First Progress Report on the Development of Renewable Energy Pursuant to Article 22 of Directive 2009/28/ EC Available at: . Government Offices of Sweden, 2008. Regeringens Proposition (Government Bill) 2008/09:162, En Sammanhållen Klimat- och Energipolitik – Klimat (A Coherent Climate and Energy Policy - Climate). Government Offices of Sweden (Regeringskansliet), Stockholm. Available at: (in Swedish). Government Offices of Sweden, 2004. Förordning (2004:1205) om handel med utsläppsrätter (in Swedish). Grahn, M., Hansson, J., 2015. Prospects for domestic biofuels for transport in Sweden 2030 based on current production and future plans. WIREs Energy Environ. 4 (3), 290–306. Hansson, J., Hackl, R., 2016. The potential influence of sustainability criteria on the European Union pellets market - the example of Sweden. WIREs Energy Environ. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wene.199. Hoefnagels, R., Resch, G., Junginger, M., Faaij, A., 2014. International and domestic uses of solid biofuels under different renewable energy support scenarios in the European Union. Appl. Energy 131, 139–157. Lamers, P., Hoefnagels, R., Junginger, M., Hamelinck, C., Faaij, A., 2015. Global solid biomass trade for energy by 2020: an assessment of potential import streams and supply costs to North-West Europe under different sustainability constraints. Glob. Change Biol. Bioenergy 7, 618–634. National Board of Housing, Building and Planning (Boverket), 2011. Boverkets byggregler, föreskrifter och allmänna råd (National building regulations). BFS

Please cite this article in press as: Börjesson, P., et al. Future demand for forest-based biomass for energy purposes in Sweden. Forest Ecol. Manage. (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.09.018

10

P. Börjesson et al. / Forest Ecology and Management xxx (2016) xxx–xxx

2011:6 - BBR 18, including changes until BFS 2015: Available at: (in Swedish). Nilsson, L.J., Johansson, B., Åstrand, K., Ericsson, K., Svenningsson, P., Börjesson, P., Neij, L., 2004. Seeing the wood for the trees: 25 years of renewable energy policy in Sweden. Energy Sustain Dev. VIII, 67–81. Peck, P., Grönkvist, S., Hansson, J., Voytenko, Y., Lönnqvist, T., 2015. Investigating socio-technical and institutional constraints to development of forest-derived transport biofuels in Sweden: a study design. In: Proceedings of the 23rd European Biomass Conference & Exhibition, Vienna, Austria, 1–4 June. Rydén, B., Sköldberg, H., Stridsman, D., Göransson, A., Sahlin, T., Sandoff, A., Williamsson, J., Hansson, N., Holmberg, U., Gunnarsson, A., 2013. Slutrapport för Fjärrsynprojektet: Fjärrvärmens affärsmodeller. Fjärrsyn rapport 2013:7 (in Swedish). Sköldberg, H., Rydén B., 2014. Värmemarknaden i Sverige – en samlad bild. Värmemarknad Sverige. Available at: (in Swedish). Sköldberg, H., Unger, T., Göransson, A., 2013. Potentialen för kraftvärme, fjärrvärme och fjärrkyla. Fjärrsyn rapport 2013:15. Svensk Fjärrvärme AB (in Swedish). SOU, 2016. En klimat- och luftvårdsstrategi för Sverige – Del 1 (A climate and air pollution treatment strategy for Sweden – Part 1). Delbetänkande av Miljömålsberedningen, Swedish Government Official Reports SOU 2016:47 Available at: (in Swedish). SOU, 2013. Fossilfrihet på väg (On its way to fossil fuel independence). Utredningen om fossilfri fordonstrafik, Swedish Government Official Reports SOU 2013:84. Available at: (in Swedish). Svebio, 2015. Ett 100 procent förnybart elsystem kräver en betydande andel biokraft. Biokraftplattformen. Swedish Bioenergy Association, Stockholm (in Swedish).

Swedish Energy Agency, 2015a. Energiläget 2015. Eskilstuna (in Swedish). Swedish Energy Agency, 2015b. Transportsektorns energianvändning 2014 (Energy use in the Swedish transport sector in 2014). ES 2015:01 Available at: (in Swedish). Swedish Energy Agency, 2015c. Hållbara biodrivmedel och flytande biobränslen under 2014. Rapport ET 2015:12. Eskilstuna (in Swedish). Swedish Energy Agency, 2014. Scenarier över Sveriges Energisystem. ER 2014:19 (in Swedish). Swedish Energy Agency, 2013. Långsiktsprognos 2012 – En konsekvensanalys av gällande styrmedel inom energi- och klimatområdet. Rapport ER 2013:03 (in Swedish). Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2016. Statistics, domestic emissions of greenhouse gases. Available at: (in Swedish). Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2012. Underlag till en färdplan för ett Sverige utan klimatutsläpp 2050. Rapport 6537, Stockholm (in Swedish). Swedish Forest Agency, 2015. Global framtida efterfrågan på och möjligt utbud av vireksråvara. Report No 4. Jönköping, Sweden (in Swedish). Swedish Transport Administration, 2012. Delrapport transporter - Underlag till färdplan 2050 (Partial report – Basis for the roadmap for 2050). Publication no. 2012:224. ISBN: 978-91-7467-418-7, November 2012. Available at: (in Swedish). Swedish Waste Management Association, 2014. Swedish waste management 2014. Available at: . Verkerk, P.J., Anttila, P., Eggers, J., Lindner, M., Asikainen, A., 2011. The realizable potential supply of woody biomass from forests in the European Union. For. Ecol. Manage. 261, 2007–2015.

Please cite this article in press as: Börjesson, P., et al. Future demand for forest-based biomass for energy purposes in Sweden. Forest Ecol. Manage. (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.09.018