Future development in road freight transport regarding more environmentally friendly vehicle technologies

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1557 – 1567

7UDQVSRUW5HVHDUFK$UHQD±(XURSH

)XWXUHGHYHORSPHQWLQURDGIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUWUHJDUGLQJPRUH HQYLURQPHQWDOO\IULHQGO\YHKLFOHWHFKQRORJLHV 'LSO,QJ$QGUHDV/LWVFKNHD 'LSO9RONVZ*XQQDU.QLWVFKN\D  'HXWVFKHV=HQWUXPIU/XIWXQG5DXPIDKUW,QVWLWXWHRI7UDQVSRUW5HVHDUFK5XWKHUIRUGVWU%HUOLQ\*HUPDQ\

D



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

© 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the ‹3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU/WG6HOHFWLRQDQGSHHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RI75$ Transport Research Arena 2012



.H\ZRUGVURDGIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUWFRPPHUFLDOYHKLFOHWHFKQRORJLHVHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQ

,QWURGXFWLRQ ,QWKHQHZ(XURSHDQ:KLWH3DSHURQWKH)XWXUHRI7UDQVSRUWWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQXQGHUOLQHVWKH WDUJHWWRUHGXFHWKHGHSHQGHQFHRIWUDQVSRUWRQRLODQGWRFXWGRZQRQJUHHQKRXVHJDVHPLVVLRQV7KLV KDVWREHDFKLHYHGDJDLQVWWKHEDFNJURXQGRIIXUWKHUHFRQRPLFDQGWKHDQWLFLSDWHGJURZWKLQURDGIUHLJKW WUDQVSRUWWKDWLVIRUHFDVWHG 7KHTXHVWLRQWKXVDULVHVDVWRKRZYHKLFOHWHFKQRORJ\DQGHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQRIURDGIUHLJKWWUDQVSRUW ZLOO GHYHORS  7KH IROORZLQJ DUWLFOH RXWOLQHV ZKLFK WHFKQRORJLFDO GHYHORSPHQWV FRXOG FRQWULEXWH IURP 

&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU7HOID[ (PDLODGGUHVVDQGHDVOLVFKNH#GOUGH



1877-0428 © 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the Transport Research Arena 2012 doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.06.1131

1558

Dipl.-Ing. Andreas Litschke and Dipl.-Volksw. Gunnar Knitschky / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1557 – 1567

WRGD\¶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±WKH(XURVWDQGDUGVDVWKH\ DUH NQRZQ ± D VXEVWDQWLDOO\ XQLIRUP GHYHORSPHQW WRRN SODFH DFURVV WKH (8 FRXQWULHV  7KH FXUUHQW VWDWH RI GHYHORSPHQW LQ 1RUWK $PHULFD DQG -DSDQ LV DOVR EULHIO\ GHVFULEHG  %DVHG RQ WKHVH WHFKQLFDO SDUDPHWHUVWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHIOHHWRI/'9+'9DQGVHPLWUDLOHUWUXFNVWRGDWHLQ*HUPDQ\ZLOOEH FRQVLGHUHG 7HFKQRORJLFDOGHYHORSPHQWRI/'9+'9DQGVHPLWUDLOHUWUXFNVVLQFH ,Q WKH V WKH (XURSHDQ &RPPLVVLRQ VWDUWHG $XWR2LO 3URJUDP >(& @ 7KH REMHFWLYH ZDV WR HVWDEOLVKWKHPRVWFRVWHIIHFWLYHPHDQVRIFRPSO\LQJZLWKFHUWDLQDLUTXDOLW\REMHFWLYHV7KH(XURSHDQ )XHO'LUHFWLYH(*>(&@RQWKHTXDOLW\RIJDVROLQHDQGGLHVHOIXHOVDVZHOODVWKHLQWURGXFWLRQ RIH[KDXVWJDVOLPLWV(XURVWDQGDUGVVHHWDEOH IRUFRPPHUFLDOYHKLFOHVDQGWKHLUXSGDWHVDWYDULRXV WLPHVOHGWRWKHUHGXFWLRQRIWKHVSHFLILFHPLVVLRQVRIDLUSROOXWDQWVLQWKHLQGLYLGXDOYHKLFOHFODVVHVVHH WDEOH  7KH DLU SROOXWLRQ FRQWURO LQ WUDQVSRUW KDV EHHQ RQH RI WKH PDLQ ILHOGV LQ QDWLRQDO DQG (XURSHDQ HQYLURQPHQWDO SROLF\ IRU PDQ\ \HDUV 0RWRU YHKLFOH HPLVVLRQV KDYH RULJLQDOO\ EHHQ UHJXODWHG E\ 'LUHFWLYH ((& /'9  DQG (& +'9  DQG DPHQGPHQWV  ,Q DLU SROOXWLRQ FRQWURO WKH HPLVVLRQRIFDUERQPRQR[LGH&2 K\GURFDUERQV+& SDUWLFOHV30 DQGQLWURJHQR[LGHV12; ZHUH DOVRUHJXODWHG 7DEOH(PLVVLRQOLPLWYDOXHVIRU+'9DERYHWRQVDQGVHPLWUDLOHUWUXFNVLQJN:K8%$  

(XUR,

(XUR,,

(XUR,,,

(XUR,9

(XUR9

(XUR9,

5HGXFWLRQ

LQLWLDWLRQ \HDU















&2















+&















30















12[















(XUR,,9

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

Dipl.-Ing. Andreas Litschke and Dipl.-Volksw. Gunnar Knitschky / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1557 – 1567

7DEOH/'9+'9FODVVHVDQGVHPLWUDLOHUWUXFNVLQ*HUPDQ\RQ-DQXDU\.%$    





0D[JURVVZHLJKW

W\SLFDOXVHDUHD

/LJKW'XW\9HKLFOH /'9 

EHORZWRQV

VHUYLFHDQGGHOLYHU\ WUDQVSRUW

OLJKW+HDY\'XW\ 9HKLFOH+'9 

XSWRWRQV

GHOLYHU\DQGVKRUWGLVWDQFH WUDQVSRUW

PLGGOH+'9 ZLWKRXWDQ\WROOLQ *HUPDQ\ 

XSWRWRQV

GHOLYHU\UHJLRQDO WUDQVSRUWDQGWUDQVSRUWRI OLJKWDQGYROXPLQRXV JRRGV

ELJ+'9

DERYHWRQV

UHJXODUWUXFNVSOXVWUDLOHU IRUORQJURDGKDXODJHDQG VLQJOHWUXFNVIRUGHOLYHU\ HJKHDY\FRPPRGLWLHV 

VHPLWUDLOHUWUXFN

UHJXODUXSWRRU WRQV

ORQJURDGKDXODJH





 'HYHORSPHQWLQ1RUWK$PHULFDDQG-DSDQ 6LPLODUVWULFWH[KDXVWSROOXWDQWOLPLWYDOXHVDUHDOVRDSSOLHGIRUWKHOHDGLQJPDUNHWVLQ-DSDQDQGWKH 86$ LQFOXGLQJ 1$)7$   7KH OHYHO RI WKH OLPLWV RI WKH H[KDXVW JDV YDOXHV ZDV DOVR VLJQLILFDQWO\ LQFUHDVHG RYHU UHFHQW \HDUV  7KH 86 VWDQGDUG (3$¶ ZKLFK KDV EHHQ LQ IRUFH VLQFH  FRQWDLQV H[KDXVWJDVOLPLWYDOXHVRIJN:KIRU12[DQGJN:KIRUSDUWLFOHV7KLVLVDOUHDG\DVVLPLODU DV WKH (XUR9, VWDQGDUG  7KH -DSDQHVH -3¶ VWDQGDUG ZKLFK KDV EHHQ LQ IRUFH VLQFH  UHTXLUHV H[KDXVW YDOXHV RI  JN:K IRU 12[ DQG  JN:K IRU SDUWLFOHV  7KLV VWDQGDUG LV DOUHDG\ PRUH DPELWLRXVDVWKHFXUUHQWO\YDOLG(XUR9VWDQGDUG>&RQWLQHQWDO@               )LJ$YHUDJHIXHOFRQVXPSWLRQDQGSHUIRUPDQFHRIQHZ/'9DQGVHPLWUDLOHUWUXFNVWHVWUHVXOWVODVWDXWRRPQLEXV 

1559

Dipl.-Ing. Andreas Litschke and Dipl.-Volksw. Gunnar Knitschky / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1557 – 1567

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¶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

1560

)LJ&RPPHUFLDOYHKLFOHIOHHWVLQVRPH(8FRXQWULHV$&($ 

)OHHWGHYHORSPHQWLQ(XURSHDQ*HUPDQ\IRU/'9+'9DQGVHPLWUDLOHUWUXFNV 7KH (XURSHDQ FRPPHUFLDO YHKLFOH IOHHW RI WKH (8 KDG D VL]H RQ  -DQXDU\  RI DURXQG  PLOOLRQYHKLFOHV/'9VGRPLQDWHE\RIWKHIOHHWRQO\OHVVWKDQDILIWKPLOOLRQ RIWKHYHKLFOHV EHORQJWRWKHDERYHWRQVJURVVZHLJKWYHKLFOHFODVV,Q)UDQFH6SDLQDQG,WDO\DUHWKHELJJHVWYHKLFOH

Dipl.-Ing. Andreas Litschke and Dipl.-Volksw. Gunnar Knitschky / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1557 – 1567

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µVVKDUHRI(XURSHDQQHZUHJLVWUDWLRQVLQUHFHQW \HDUVZDVDERXWRYHURQHTXDUWHU 7KHDYHUDJHDJHRIDOOFRPPHUFLDOYHKLFOHVLQ*HUPDQ\IURPWKHPLGVWRKDGLQFUHDVHGE\ RQH\HDUWR\HDUV2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHDYHUDJHDJHRIVHPLWUDLOHUWUXFNVKDVIDOOHQIURPRYHUWR XQGHU\HDUV7KHGHUHJLVWUDWLRQRIROGHUYHKLFOHVRYHU\HDUVROG³UHMXYHQDWHG³WKLVFDWHJRU\7KLV HIIHFWZDVLQFUHDVHGE\WKHSURJUHVVLYHHPLVVLRQVWDQGDUGEDVHG+'9WROOWDULIIV               )LJ&RPPHUFLDOYHKLFOHLQVRPH(8FRXQWULHV$&($ 

1561

1562

Dipl.-Ing. Andreas Litschke and Dipl.-Volksw. Gunnar Knitschky / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1557 – 1567

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± ELRIXHOV QDWXUDO JDV DQG OLTXLG JDV  7KHUH DUH JUHDW H[SHFWDWLRQV IRU HOHFWURPRELOLW\ DQG K\EULGDQGK\GURJHQWHFKQRORJ\LQWKHSDVVHQJHUFDUVHFWRUDQGDOVRIRU/'9:KDWFDQWKHVHDOWHUQDWLYH GULYH WHFKQRORJLHV RIIHU IRU /'9+'9 DQG VHPLWUDLOHU WUXFNV LQ WKH PHGLXP WHUP"  $IWHU DOO D ODUJH SURSRUWLRQ RI WKH HQHUJ\ FRQVXPHG LQ PRWRUL]HG URDG IUHLJKW WUDQVSRUW LV GHWHUPLQHG E\ YHKLFOH WHFKQRORJ\ DQG GULYHUV EHKDYLRU ±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± IRU IRRG SURGXFWLRQIRUKHDWJHQHUDWLRQRUXVHDVUDZPDWHULDOV2YHUDOOLQWKHPHGLXPWRORQJWHUPWKHUHVKRXOG

Dipl.-Ing. Andreas Litschke and Dipl.-Volksw. Gunnar Knitschky / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1557 – 1567

EHDGHTXDWHELRPDVVDYDLODEOHWRPDNHDVXEVWDQWLDOFRQWULEXWLRQWRJOREDOSRZHUVXSSO\RIWKHRUGHURIDW OHDVW>(XURSHDQ5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\&RXQFLO@ &1*±&RPSUHVVHG1DWXUDO*DV &1*±FRPSUHVVHGQDWXUDOJDV±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±SDUWLFXODUO\WKHHPLVVLRQRI 12[ DQG 62 ± LV LQVLJQLILFDQWO\ EHWWHU WKDQ D GLHVHO HQJLQH DV WKH VWULFW (XUR VWDQGDUGV PHDQ WKDW WKH GLHVHOHQJLQHKDVDOUHDG\VLJQLILFDQWO\LPSURYHGLWVSROOXWLRQIRRWSULQW$IXUWKHUDGYDQWDJHFRPHVIURP WKHORZQRLVHHPLVVLRQVRIWKH&1*HQJLQHWKHVHDUHDURXQGEHORZFRPSDUDEOHGLHVHOHQJLQHQRLVH HPLVVLRQV 7KHZLGHVWDUHDRIXVHRI&1*SRZHULVLQXUEDQWUDQVSRUWZLWKOLJKWDQGPHGLXPFRPPHUFLDOYHKLFOHV EDVHGRQDQDGHTXDWHQHWZRUNRIILOOLQJVWDWLRQV)RUXVHLQXUEDQWUDQVSRUWDYRLGLQJSDUWLFOHDQGQRLVH HPLVVLRQVLVLWVHOIDUHFRPPHQGDWLRQ /3*±/LTXHILHG3HWUROHXP*DV/3*  /LTXHILHG3HWUROHXP*DV/3* LVDOLTXLGPL[WXUHRIEXWDQHDQGSURSDQHZKLFKLVSURGXFHGDVDE\ SURGXFWRIUHILQHU\SURFHVVHV/3*LVXVHGDVSXUHIXHOLQPRGLILHGSHWUROHQJLQHVZKLFKFDQWKHQDOVR FRQWLQXH WR EH XVHG ZLWK SHWURO  7KH SROOXWDQW HPLVVLRQ GLIIHUV DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH YDULRXV WHFKQRORJLHV XVHG  )HZ YHKLFOH PDQXIDFWXUHV SURPRWH DOO WKH /3* YDULDWLRQV DV KDYLQJ ORZHU &2HPLVVLRQV  7KH PDUNHWVKDUHRIWKHVHYHKLFOHVFDQRQO\EHH[SHFWHGWRJURZVORZO\ +\EULGDQGHOHFWULFGULYH ,QWKHUHFHQWSDVWWKHUHKDVEHHQDQHYHULQFUHDVLQJWUHQGWRZDUGVHOHFWULILFDWLRQDQGK\EULGL]DWLRQRI SRZHU WUDLQV 7KH PDLQ WHFKQRORJLFDO GULYHU IRU YHKLFOH GHYHORSPHQW LV H[SHFWHG WR FRPH IURP K\EULG WHFKQRORJ\ DQG HOHFWURPRELOLW\  $ERYH DOO K\EULG DQG HOHFWULF YHKLFOHV JLYH SRWHQWLDOO\ ORZHU IXHO FRQVXPSWLRQDQGUHGXFWLRQLQ&2HPLVVLRQVWKURXJKWKHXVHRIUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\IRUXUEDQGHOLYHU\DQG WUDQVSRUW +\EULGYHKLFOHVFDQEHGLYLGHGLQWRJURXSVRQWKHRQHKDQGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHFRPELQDWLRQRIHOHFWULF DQG FRPEXVWLRQ HQJLQHV LQWR VHULHV SDUDOOHO DQG PL[HG K\EULGV DQG RQ WKH RWKHU DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH HIILFLHQF\RIWKHHOHFWULFHQJLQHLQWRPLFURPLOGIXOODQGSOXJLQK\EULGV$OOFRPELQDWLRQVKRZHYHU

1563

1564

Dipl.-Ing. Andreas Litschke and Dipl.-Volksw. Gunnar Knitschky / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1557 – 1567

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¶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¶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¶W SURGXFH ORFDO HPLVVLRQV7KHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIIXHOFHOOVPDNHLWSRVVLEOHWRDFKLHYHDJUHDWHUHIILFLHQF\±IRUH[DPSOH WKHPRVWPRGHUQIXHOFHOOVKDYHDQHIILFLHQF\RIXSWR

Dipl.-Ing. Andreas Litschke and Dipl.-Volksw. Gunnar Knitschky / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1557 – 1567

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¶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¶WVKRZQLWVHOIWREHVRDGYDQWDJHRXVWKDWRWKHUDOWHUQDWLYHVGRQ¶WORQJHUEHUHJDUGHG7KH

1565

1566

Dipl.-Ing. Andreas Litschke and Dipl.-Volksw. Gunnar Knitschky / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1557 – 1567

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¶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± WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW DOWHUQDWLYH HQHUJ\VRXUFHIRUFRPEXVWLRQHQJLQHVLQFRPPHUFLDOWUDQVSRUW±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

Dipl.-Ing. Andreas Litschke and Dipl.-Volksw. Gunnar Knitschky / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1557 – 1567

5HIHUHQFHV $&($ 1HZ9HKLFOH5HJLVWUDWLRQV±%\&RXQWU\%UXVVHOV $GROI-HWDO 6KHOO/NZ6WXGLH)DNWHQ7UHQGVXQG3HUVSHNWLYHQLP6WUD‰HQJWHUYHUNHKUELV+DPEXUJ%HUOLQ %RUFKHUV8 $OWHUGHU)DKU]HXJHVWDWXV'HFHPEHU.UDIWIDKUW%XQGHVDPWHGLWRU )OHQVEXUJ &RQWLQHQWDO :RUOGZLGH(PLVVLRQ6WDQGDUGVDQG5HODWHG5HJXODWLRQV3DVVHQJHU&DUV/LJKW 0HGLXP'XW\9HKLFOHV 5HJHQVEXUJ '(1$'HXWVFKH(QHUJLHDJHQWXU (UGJDVXQG%LRPHWKDQLPNQIWLJHQ.UDIWVWRIIPL[%HUOLQ (&(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ &20 ILQDO&2' 3URSRVDOIRUD 'HFLVLRQRIWKH(XURSHDQ3DUOLDPHQWDQGRIWKH&RXQFLORQWKHHIIRUWRI0HPEHU6WDWHVWRUHGXFHWKHLUJUHHQKRXVHJDVHPLVVLRQVWR PHHWWKH&RPPXQLW\¶VJUHHQKRXVHJDVHPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQFRPPLWPHQWVXSWR%UXVVHOV (&(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ &20 ILQDO.HHS(XURSHPRYLQJ6XVWDLQDEOHPRELOLW\IRURXUFRQWLQHQW0LGWHUP UHYLHZRIWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ¶V7UDQVSRUW:KLWH3DSHU%UXVVHOV (&(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ &20 ILQDO&RPPXQLFDWLRQIURPWKH&RPPLVVLRQ$5HYLHZRIWKH$XWR2LO,, 3URJUDPPH%UXVVHOV (3(XURSHDQ3DUOLDPHQW 'LUHFWLYH(&RIWKH(XURSHDQ3DUOLDPHQWDQGRIWKH&RXQFLORI2FWREHUUHODWLQJWR WKHTXDOLW\RISHWURODQGGLHVHOIXHOVDQGDPHQGLQJ&RXQFLO'LUHFWLYH(&%UXVVHOV (XURSHDQ5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\&RXQFLO*UHHQSHDFH (QHUJ\>5@(YROXWLRQ%UXVVHOV$PVWHUGDP )LVFKNQHFKW5/DXHQEHUJHU0 (OHNWURDXWR±.|QLJVZHJRGHU6DFNJDVVH"$UEHLWVNUHLV8PZHOW0LWDUEHLWHU,QQHQ'DLPOHU $*3UHVHQWDWLRQ6LQGHOILQJHQ-XQH .QHFKW6W 0LW$QWULHEGHU8PZHOW]XOLHEH/RJLVWLN|NRQRPLVFKXQG|NRORJLVFKHIIL]LHQWJHVWDOWHQ3UHVHQWDWLRQ 6WUDXELQJ-XQH .RSS6W6FK|QKHUU6W.RRV+ 'HVLJQXQG$HURG\QDPLNEHL1XW]IDKU]HXJHQ-RXUQDO$XWRPRELOWHFKQLVFKH=HLWVFKULIW LVVXH-J .%$.UDIWIDKUW%XQGHVDPW 'HU)DKU]HXJEHVWDQGDPSUHVVUHOHDVHQR)OHQVEXUJ .%$.UDIWIDKUW%XQGHVDPW )DKU]HXJ]XODVVXQJHQ%HVWDQG(PLVVLRQHQ.UDIWVWRIIH-DQXDU6WDWLVWLVFKH0LWWHLOXQJ GHV.UDIWIDKUW%XQGHVDPWHV)OHQVEXUJ .%$.UDIWIDKUW%XQGHVDPW 6WDWLVWLVFKH0LWWHLOXQJHQ5HLKH)DKU]HXJEHVWDQGLVVXHV .%$.UDIWIDKUW%XQGHVDPW 6WDWLVWLVFKH0LWWHLOXQJHQ5HLKH.UDIWIDKU]HXJH±1HX]XODVVXQJHQ %HVLW]XPVFKUHLEXQJHQ/|VFKXQJHQ%HVWDQG,VVXH'HFHPEHU LVVXH)HEUXDU\  .%$.UDIWIDKUW%XQGHVDPW )DKU]HXJ]XODVVXQJHQ)= ±%HVWDQGDQ.UDIWIDKU]HXJHQXQG.UDIWIDKU]HXJDQKlQJHUQDP -DQXDUGHV-DKUHV$QWKRORJ\)=DQG)=LVVXHV +\)/((7&87( +\GURJHQ7UDQVSRUWV%XV7HFKQRORJ\ )XHOIRU7RGD\DQGIRUD6XVWDLQDEOH)XWXUH±$5HSRUWRQWKH $FKLHYHPHQWVDQG/HDUQLQJVIURPWKH+\)/((7&87(3URMHFW&RQIHUHQFH+DPEXUJ1RYHPEHU ODVWDXWRRPQLEXVFDWDORJXH ODVWDXWRRPQLEXVLVVXHV 3XFKHU(0OOHU- 6DXEHUHU*WHUYHUWHLOYHUNHKULQ:LHQ9LHQQD 5,&$5'2 5HYLHZRIORZFDUERQWHFKQRORJLHVIRU+HDY\*RRGV9HKLFOHV/RQGRQ 8%$±)HGHUDO(QYLURQPHQW$JHQF\ 'DWHQ]XP9HUNHKULVVXH'HVVDX 9'$±9HUEDQGGHU$XWRPRELOLQGXVWULH (LQIOXVVGHU$EJDVJHVHW]JHEXQJDXIGHQ9HUEUDXFKYRQ1XW]IDKU]HXJHQ )UDQNIXUW0DLQ

1567