Future employment prospects in the light of technological advances

110

Long

Range

Planning

Vol.

18

April

One guideline for deciding which system to use is the fact that Dialogue is more numerate than literate whereas Data Star is the reverse. Hands on experience usually suggests the answer. Data Star also has the New York Times and the online. But there are also many specialized importance on Dialogue which could be of Dialogue have extended their commercial recent years, such that most corporate planners data bases relevant to their needs. Predicasts

Financial

Times

data bases of direct interest. coverage over will fmd some

Codes

A question frequently debated by online searchers concerns the merits of free text searching versus controlled language. With the first method the cost of searching can be increased if the correct terms are not use first time. With the latter it is necessary to purchase a thesaurus which can soon go out of date. Loose leaf thesauri are a part solution. Another method has been developed to search on codes. These

by Predlcasts

and that is

are as follows:

Product codes-an attempt to use codes for searching for both products and services. For example P.27 is Printing and Publishing, P.36 Electrical and Electronic Equipment and P.48 Communication Services.

Event codes-cover company news, management processes and technology, capacity, marketing data, unit costs and government information. E.6 Market Data is a useful code. Country coder-cover C.4 is the European Kingdom.

both areas and countries, for example Community and C.4 U.K. is the United

All these codes can be combined. They also can be combined with free text searching. This combination enables the searcher to increase precision. It is necessary to use free text with some of the product codes because of the changing references to increasingly disaggregated data. D.H.S.S.

Data

Base

In the recent article on Scicon it was mentioned that the U.K. Government D.H.S.S. online data base was available from Scicon. It is now also available from Data Star. B. C. BURROWS, Futures Keynes

Information

Associates,

Milton

Future Employment Prospects in the Light of Technological Advances (1)

Management

Compensation

SCHUSTER, Lexington (1984), 147 pp. Ll9.50

(2) New

Technology

with

Technology

Companies,

Books, Massachusetts, (hardback).

and the Future

P. MARSTRAND, Frances Al4.50 (hardback). (3) The Trouble

in High

of Work

Pinter,

Technology:

J.

Exploratioru

In reviewing biases:

these books

I start from a number

of personal

Technology mtroduccs quasi-solutions to socio-economic problems; therefore acceleration in technology will introduce a growth in the number of problems to be solved and ultimately more employment. Society as a learning system progresses interaction of failures and successes. The basic principles underlying technologies are changing slowly, scale factors of micro-dimensions efficiencies/utilization of resources material).

through

the

many so called high what is changing are the and improvements in of all kinds (human and

We have to develop, learn and apply the new tools just as previous generations did right back to the cavemen. We are in a period of crisis because the tools available are still too primitive/unrefined for every day use and many of us do not know how to apply them. Managers exist to make smooth the path of producers whom they provide a service and upon whom they depend their continued viability.

to for

My last bias leads directly to Jay Schuster’s book which is among many that will follow In Search of Excellence. I read the book in a couple of hours; it has a simple message which is backed by a lot of padding, some advice and repetition. Your organization is more likely to be successful if it: Concentrates performance performance, technological needs.

on encouraging and supporting Group/team rather than the individual and emphasizing quality of output, and responsiveness to changes, markets and group linked individual

I found nothing ingredient technology reviewing significant

new, and those who search for some mystical that differentiates high technology from any other will be as disappointed as I have been when the management literature: there is probably no differential.

A Manager must be emotionally involved with his people and the communication distance must be minimal. If he/she is to lead, a manager must handle effectively the interactions between people, tasks, technologies, organizational structures and the business environment. Weaknesses m any of these areas will lead to major difficulties. The second book edited by Pauline Marstrand pulls together the views of a number of well known experts in the field of technology affected employment trends. I found the book easy to read, and it contained some memorable facts. The following are some given in the form of headlines: EEC unemployment Civil

Service

projected

and Agriculture

to reach 15 million dominated

1111985.

by the ‘old’.

Toronto Working

Women

at most

risk on all counts.

Edited by (1984). 260 pp.

Employment does not mean the same as Work. The former 1s a production resource. the latter 1s 3cli and social actualization.

in tileProces
Uncmploymcnt is proved to be a curse leading stress and malaise; 50 per cent of those unemployed vote 1111983.

and Skills,

London

1985

Technological Change, Edited by S. MACDONALD and D.McL. LAMBERTON. T.D. Mandeville, London (1983), 224 pp. Al5.00 (hardback).

Unemployed

carrying

the burdens

of change.

to social did not

Book Operatives, craftsmen, nicians and draughtsmen stakes.

clerks/secretaries/typists, techmost at risk in future employment

Retailers have the least concern for staff. Banks are paternalistic and hospitals most concerned when introducing Information Technology. North loses out on all counts in the application of advanced technology when compared with the South East of England. People need involvement status.

work for: social contacts, with a collective purpose,

R & D should be aimed at extending human capabilities. Recovery intensive Professional disciplinary

likely sectors

enforced activity, time structure and

rather

than replacing

to be achieved by emphasis on laboursupported by high technology.

boundaries blurring skills increase.

as demand

for

multi-

Microprocessors, robotics, automated process control, electronic office equipment and wideband telecommunications relieve growing bottleneck in transfer and control processes. Major socio-economic shift from yourself) work in services. Software potential.

services

provide

greatest

paid

to unpaid

employment

Reviews

111

developing distribution channels relative to R & D, and the slow build up of accumulated experience which determines the evolution of firms and expensive technology transfer processes requiring close collaboration over a prolonged time between the parties involved. Since beyond the R & D phase knowledge acquisition and applications are costly, firms have to be triggered into action to apply inventions. Such triggers include market threats and/or possibility of substantial competitive advantage leading to significant profitability with low risks. As knowledge is like a waterfall which has to be driven uphill before it provides potentially useful work, it is necessary to develop the right climate for the process to occur. A nation which waits with buckets at the bottom of a dry fall might have to wait a long time for rain. Rather it should give its people the buckets and encourage them to get the flow of knowledge moving. The reader can form his own conclusions from a statement in the final chapter of the book, ‘advances in knowledge and miscellaneous determinants have been negative since 1973’. One may deduce that the pace of technological change has topped out, and those who are likely to benefit in the years to come will be those who can apply the knowledge accumulated to date to do new or better things.

(do-it-

creating

It would seem from the above that the best hope for the future lies in decoupling capital from replacing labour. This was the situation in the pre-industrial era, and the most likely scenario for the post-industrial period to come, especially in knowledge creation, transformation, processing and customizing activities. Here each person will need an optimum amount of capital to produce the desired quality ofoutputjust as a peasant needed the best hoe. Providing 1000 hoes did not improve productivity without a 1000 peasants, and a similar situation, hopefully, might happen with information technology as we move away from process to product innovation to serve an increasing variety of needs. I left the most difficult and challenging book to the last, Tile Trouble ujitk Technology. This explores the impact ofadvanced technology and is, as in the case of the previous book, a set of chapters written by different authors. However, the introduction fails to pull the variety of threads together. I found the lack of coherence and style, abbreviations and verbosity in some chapters trying and annoying. I searched for a core theme, and I believe that the chapter by Stewart MacDonald might have presented a core around which the other chapters might have been written. Stewart MacDonald makes the following important points: technology is being seen as increasingly divorced from physical means whilst remaining pre-eminently practical; technology can be defined as the way things are done and is the sum of the received information and the information incorporated in the ‘doing’ process; therefore technology change can bc viewed as the accummulation of new knowledge to do better or new things; finally them is a significant cost associated with the consumption and use of information. The cost of acquiring new knowledge lcads to: social ignorance of technology, a reluctance to face up to the much higher cost of production, acquiring new markets and

Overall my conclusions from the three books is to advise readers not to treat high technology as a new management phenomenon, there is plenty of work to do and what we lack is the necessary accumulated knowledge on a national scale to extract ourselves from the economic trough. We did it in the 193Os, but this required a war; this need not be the only way to re-educate a nation. I rest my hopes on my children and theirs, in the faith that they will be able to apply the new, on top of the best of the accumulated knowledge base available today. R. V. LATIN, Chief Information Technology

BOOKS How

Research Division,

Engineer STL.

and

RECEIVED

to Get

Your

ICA (1984), 1984.

Employment

190 pp.

A9.95

Costs Right, EDWIN WHITING, (softback). Received September (1210)

Key tojapan’s Economic Strength: Human Power, TUNG, Lexington Books (1984), 219 pp. A26.50 Received September 1984.

7%e Environment for Entrepreneurship, Lexington Books (1984), 191 pp. A22.00 September Technological

Pergamon September Bank

CAI.VIN A.

KENT, Received (1212)

Trends

G

Employment,

Basic

Consumer Goods, (1984), Al4.50 (1213)

in OR, R. W. Ec.r.rsr and G. K. RANI). (1984), 110 pp. Ll2.50 (hardback). Received 2984. (1213)

Marketing

Management.

(1984), 244 pp. L20.00 September 1984. Policy

ROSAI.IE L. (hardback). (1211)

(hardback).

1984.

SPRU, edited by KEN GUY, Gower (hardback). Received September 1984. Developments

Manager,

Making

FLOYD, Gower October 1984.

G

AHI-HL’H MEIDAN, Macmillan (hardback), A7.95 (softback). Received (1215)

Plamling

(1984).

irl Local Government, 138 pp. Al4.50 (hardback).

MI~:HAEL Received (1216)

112

Long

Microprocessors

The

Planning

Manpower

WARNER, Gower October

Range G

Vol.

Society,

(1984), 367 pp. A21.50

18

April

edited by MAI COI.M (hardback). Received

1984. Tax

Implications

HARDMAN, ICA October

of

(1984),

Management

Buy-outs,

L3.00

17 pp.

J.

(softback).

Investment

Planningfor

ICA (1984). 75 pp. A6.80

the Individual,

(softback).

Received

1984.

of British Management Accounting, J. SIZEI
A Casebook October

1984.

Selected

Accounting Standards-Interpretation Problems reprint articles from Accountants Digest, ICA (1984), A8.95 (softback). Received October 1984. (1221)

326 pp.

(1220)

Sales Forecasting, Sales Executive Club ofNew York, edited by HARRY R. WHITE, Scott, Foresman & Co., Glenview, 180 pp. $24.95 (hardback). Received October 1984. (1222) The Diffusion

of Mature

Technologies,

Paper), Cambridge (hardback). Received

University

Planning

Health

Methods

for

October

NUTT, John Wiley (hardback). Received Multiple

&

Perspectives

Received

October

1984.

for

G Related

Sons

October

LINSTONE, North-Holland

GEOHC.FF. RAY (NIESR Press (1984), 96 pp. $24.95

1984.

Inc. 1984.

(1223) Organirations,

(1984),

587 pp.

PAUI C. $29.95 (1224)

Decision Making, HAROI.D A. (1984), 422 pp. $29.50 (hardback). (1226)

The Future of the Automobile, MIT, edited by DANIFI ROOS AIAN AI.TSHULER, George Allen & Unwin (1984), 321 pp. (1227) Ll5.00 (hardback). Received October 1984. Foresight

686 pp.

edited by ROIIEHT BOYDEN $35.95 (hardback). Received (1229)

Contemporary Issues in Leadership, edited by WM E. ROSENHA(:H and RHT L. TAYI.OR, Westview Press (1984), 345 pp. $35.00 (hardback), $20.00 (softback). Received October

(1219)

Explained,

Management,

Hall,

PHII.II)

AI.AN KEI.I Y, October

Strategic

LAMH, Prentice October

(1218)

&Financial

Competitive

(1217)

Received

1984.

1985

Pinter

in Science, JOHN IRVINE and BEN R. MARTIN, Frances (1984), 166 pp. A12.50 (hardback). Received October

1984.

(1228)

1984.

(1230)

1984.

Strategic Management. An Intergrative Perspective, AHNOI.DO C. HAX and Nrc:l~or AS S. MAJI.u~:, Prentice Hall (1984), 468 pp. (1231) $27.95. Received October 1984. Leading Indicators G Business Cycle Surveys, edited by KARI HEINIII(:II OI~I~I:NIANIIEIIand GUNTEN POSIX, Gower (1984), (1232) 666 pp. L27.50. Received October 1984. Shared Ownership, GIX)II~;F COIJF.MAN, PETE]{ MOORE and CAIIOI. AI~I~OW\MI-I-H,Gower (1984), 261 pp. Al7.50 (hardback). Received October 1984. (1233) Prartice

Development

McGraw-Hill Received

October

Book

for

Professional Firms, AUI~HEY Wn SON, Co. (1984), 232 pp. Al4.95 (hardback).

1984.

(1234)

Operations

Research G Economic Theory, edited by H. HAUPTMANN, W. KRELLEand K. C. MOSLER, Springer-Verlag GMBH & Co (1984), 378 pp. DM 78, $28.40 Received October (1235)

1984

Business Competitor Intelligence, WM L. SAMMON, MARK A. KUI~IANI>and ROI~ERTSI’ITAINIC,John Wiley & Sons (1984), (1236) 357 pp. $29.95 (hardback). Received October 1984. Building the Strategic Plan, STEPHANIEK. MAHIIU\, John Wiley & Sons (1984), 342 pp. $22.95. Received October 1984. (1237) City Form

G Natural

Process,

(1984), 281 pp. A22.50

MICX~EL HAUC.H, Croom Helm (hardback). Received October 1984. (1238)