- Email: [email protected]
Future Trends in Human Work area Design for Cyber-Physical Production Systems
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
ScienceDirect Procedia CIRP 57 (2016) 404 – 409
49th CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems (CIRP-CMS 2016)
Future trends in human work area design for cyber-physical production systems Till Beckera,b, Hendrik Sterna,b* a
University of Bremen, Production Systems and Logistic Systems, Hochschulring 20, 28359 Bremen, Germany b BIBA- Bremer Institut für Produktion und Logistik, Hochschulring 20, 28359 Bremen, Germany
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +49-421-21850038; fax: +49-421-218-9850038. E-mail address: [email protected]
Abstract Currently, there is an ongoing transformation of classical products and machinery towards cyber-physical systems. Main features of these systems are the real-time data exchange between various technical and computational elements enabled by communication technologies and data processing ability provided by embedded systems. In the area of manufacturing, this trend boosts the development of cyber-physical production systems (CPPS). They enable the optimization of control processes, for example by autonomous decision-making, computational assistant systems for workers, or an extended human-machine collaboration. Subsequently, this increased computerization and automation provokes changes for human work in manufacturing. Following leading experts, the factories of the future will provide less easy and repetitive but more advanced and complex tasks. This trend changes the way how human factors or human-machine interaction influence the design of manufacturing systems. In order to achieve the promised productivity gains created by CPPS, these human-related topics have to be considered and included into the technical and organizational development of CPPS. As a starting point, a detailed view on remaining and newly added human tasks in CPPS is necessary. In this paper, we provide a listing of human task areas in existing and future CPPS. In this regard, we provide a trend estimation on the decline, rise, or further change of these tasks. The results can be used to facilitate the integration of human factors in the design of CPPS. We carry out our work by firstly deriving a standard listing of tasks for a generalized manufacturing system. Secondly, we combine the findings with expert judgments regarding CPPS trends and recent employment data from the German job market. ©©2016 Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license 2015The The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of Scientific committee of the 49th CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems (CIRP-CMS 2016). Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 49th CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems Keywords: Human factors; Cyber-physical production systems; Industry 4.0; Work area design
1.Introduction The vision of cyber-physical production systems (CPPS) will provoke changes in many ways in the area of manufacturing, which include technical as well as organizational changes. One topic that has been addressed in literature frequently concerns the role of the human workers in these factories of the future. On the one hand, statistical studies can be found, which provide an outlook on the future employment situation of specific work areas and skill levels
on an empirical basis. On the other hand, CPPS-related work is available which does a qualitatively and visionary expert prognosis on the changes of manufacturing work. In order to combine these sources and to provide additional help for practitioners who are about to implement CPPS, we present an overview and a trend estimation for future human work areas in manufacturing. In this regard, we firstly present a brief introduction to CPPS and the changes of manufacturing work. Secondly, we work on statuses, trends, and prediction of future work area
2212-8271 © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 49th CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems doi:10.1016/j.procir.2016.11.070
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Till Becker and Hendrik Stern / Procedia CIRP 57 (2016) 404 – 409
design as a preliminary work. Finally, we compile an overview and a guideline for CPPS practitioners regarding trends for future human work areas. Due to the fact, that a major part of the scientific community of this topic is publishing their work with references to Germany or the German manufacturing sector, many relevant publications are only available in German language. Consequently, some of these publications can be found as a reference for this paper. 2.Cyber-physical production systems (CPPS) 2.1.Factories of the future Cyber-physical systems represent a new kind of technological systems which combine and integrate embedded systems, physical and computational elements as well as humans by connection via Internet [1]. They are forming the basis for different and innovative products and processes which functionalities are enabled by the interplay of these components. Examples are solutions for intelligent mobility concepts, Smart Grids or eHealth systems [2, 3]. In the area of production and logistics, cyber-physical systems provide the basis for the so-called fourth industrial revolution (or ‘Industry 4.0’). Mainly, it addresses an enhancing intelligence of products and systems and its vertical cross linking [4]. Following Köhler, this will be represented in a connection of sensors and actors of automation on the one hand and the levels of production management, control, and planning on the other hand. By this action, autonomous production control is enabled and can be used for flexible and complex production environments [5]. Likewise, the products manufactured in CPPS are expected to change into so-called ‘Smart Products’. Here, products are equipped with integrated electronic components in order to provide product-specific information for data exchange and localization purposes. These products therefore can selfinfluence their lifecycle processes such as manufacturing, use, or recycling [5]. Currently, first examples of applied CPPS can be found in practice. Amberg describes the case of a packaging line, which performs a decentralized distribution of data on product sizes. This data is used for an autonomous positioning of packaging machines according to the upcoming product sizes. [5]. Another application targets the improvement of the material supply caused by a cyber-physical milk run. Here, manufacturing orders are equipped with QR-Codes (twodimensional barcodes) which have to be scanned during the manufacturing process. These information is transmitted to a software tool which computes current material demand and plans the upcoming milk runs. Subsequently, the computed routes and dates are presented to the logistics workers [5]. According to the given examples it can be reasoned that CPPS are able to fulfil the expectations regarding its optimization potential. Besides, following Köhler, we can assume further use cases created by CPPS, e.g., in the field of quality or working conditions, although practical confirmation is not available yet [5].
2.2.Changes of manufacturing work Due to the displayed technical and organizational shift provoked by cyber-physical production systems, future manufacturing work will experience changes as well. Leading experts expect less basic, repetitive work but more ambitious working tasks in collaboration with cyber-physical production machines or in machine surveillance. Hence the factories of the future will not be deserted but organized as a hybrid production system (i.e. a combined system, where human and automated parts work side by side) [6, 7]. 3.Statuses, trends, and predictions of future work area design in CPPS The present paper mainly focuses on a trend analysis of human work areas in cyber-physical production systems. As a result, an overview of future work areas is provided, which can be used as a guideline for practitioners during the planning process of new cyber-physical production systems. As a preliminary work, in this section we investigate the present human work areas, its current changes, and expected future status. Here, we firstly focus on the situation of work areas in manufacturing today and present a standard classification of work areas and qualification levels of jobs in manufacturing. Secondly, we examine ongoing employment trends regarding manufacturing work. Here, we concentrate on changes of the demand distribution of qualification levels. Finally, we bring together selected visionary expert predictions on work area changes in manufacturing. This collection pictures the long-term changes to be expected. 3.1.Standard work areas in manufacturing According to the REFA association, all company departments which are related to the production can be organized as shown exemplarily in Figure 1. Here, a generic organization scheme is displayed, which might differ depending on a company’s individual situation. For example, in this illustration a development department is included, which might not be the case in all production and logistics companies. Table 1 additionally shows a brief task description of all manufacturing-related company departments [8]. Production Production Organization
Development
Procurement
Manufacturing
Quality Control Manufacturing Organization
Maintenance
Manufacturing of Components
Assembly
Fig. 1. General production organization scheme [8]
In-House Transport
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Till Becker and Hendrik Stern / Procedia CIRP 57 (2016) 404 – 409 Table 1. Company departments and their task areas [8] Department
Task
Manufacturing Organization
Includes the work area design, logistical planning, and operative control in manufacturing.
Maintenance
Consists of all actions heading for the preservation and restoration of resources and tools.
Manufacturing of Components
Performs the manufacturing of components, which can be the final product or input for assembly.
Assembly
Performs the assembly of components to modules or products.
In-House Transport
Provides the material flow between manufacturing subdepartments or resources and tools.
In this paper, we assume the manufacturing-related departments shown in Figure 1 (manufacturing organization, maintenance, manufacturing of components, assembly, and in-house transport) as the current work areas in manufacturing. Besides, we are exclusively focusing on the manufacturing department. Other company departments and their work areas, such as marketing or accounting, might as well be affected by the integration of cyber-physical systems but are not further considered at this point. Adjacent to the presented categorization of work areas from a company organizational point of view, work areas can also be subdivided according to the required skill and qualification level. Following a classification made by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), we adopt the following subdivision of skill levels: Table 2. IAB subdivision of skill levels [9]. Occupation level
Description
Highly skilled occupation
Occupation with superior formal qualification required, e.g., on university level
Skilled occupation with managerial functions
Occupation with senior formal qualification required, e.g., on master craftsmen level
Skilled occupation
Occupation with formal job-related qualification required
Lower skilled occupation
Occupation without formal job-related qualification required
Auxiliary occupation
Occupation without any job-related qualification required
3.2.Ongoing trends regarding work areas in manufacturing Actual work areas in manufacturing are currently experiencing transformations caused by several reasons. Adjacent to major events such as globalization and the demographic change, the proceeding computerization by cyber-physical systems plays an important role in this context. The cyber-physical systems provoke rationalization effects by further digitalization, inter-linking, and automation of processes [10] as outlined in the previous section. As a result, the type of human work required in the factories of the future is changing. A study performed by
Prognos claims a rising demand for highly skilled occupation but less demand for auxiliary occupation in the next two decades [11]. This effect is characteristic for technical and organizational progresses, which always lead to less demand for easy, repetitive and more demand for complex tasks [10]. Vogler-Ludwig and Düll additionally predict a significant drop of jobs in the manufacturing area. They estimate the number of lost jobs in Germany until 2035 to 1 million. In contrast, they expect the number of managerial positions to be rising by 170.000 [10]. When taking a closer look at the lost manufacturing jobs, we find different predictions for specific task areas and qualification levels within the manufacturing area. While the numbers of jobs for machine and plant manufacturers, assemblers, metal workers, and warehouse workers diminish, the numbers of jobs for engineers and managers increase. Figure 2 gives an overview on the changes in these and other manufacturing (and company) work areas. Assembly occupations Light engineering occupations Product testing occupations Storekeeper, Transport occupations Metal-cutting manufacturing occupations Accounting occupations, Computer scientists Metal and plant engineering occupations Machine operators Unskilled labour Electricians Sales occupations Engineering an maintenance occupations Technicians Management positions, Consulting Office occupations Engineers
0 2030
2
4
6
8
10
2010
Fig. 2. Employment shares in the metalworking industry in per cent [10]
These trends can be supported by the Prognos study [11]. When comparing 2011 and the estimated development until 2035, the authors predict a decline of easy and a rise of complex tasks as well. In 2035, on the one hand, approximately 53 percent of production workers in Germany are expected to still be directly involved in production of goods, but on the other hand the share of work areas close to the production line is decreasing below 20 percent (see figure 3). On the other hand, the share of jobs related to the provision of reliable and safe processes and the creation and spreading of knowledge and information is estimated to rise up to 47 percent [11].
Till Becker and Hendrik Stern / Procedia CIRP 57 (2016) 404 – 409
In the following, we present five main expert predictions regarding the future production work (in general and in manufacturing).
100% 90% 80% 70%
1. Humans will be absolutely necessary in the factories of the future
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2011
2015
2020
Tasks near the production line
2025
2030
2035
Primary service tasks
Administrative and organizational tasks Knowledge driven tasks
Fig. 3. Occupation structure 2011-2035 in production area [11]
2. The new tasks will be more complex
The authors further number the individual changes for specific task areas (see Table 3). Regarding the tasks which are located near the production line, we can state a uniform decline throughout all investigated task areas. For the primary service tasks the situation is different caused by an expected rise in demand which can partially compensate the rationalization effects and reduces the decline of the total share. Table 3. Individual changes for specific task areas. Task category
Specific tasks
Share 2011
Share 2035
Tasks near the production line
Machine setup and surveillance
6.3
5.4
Manufacturing, Processing
9.1
7.8
Cleaning
4.3
4.3
Transport, Packaging
6.1
5.5
Administrative and organizational tasks
Management, Direction
5.6
5.8
Data processing
12.4
11.8
Knowledge driven tasks
Research and Development
5.0
6.1
Primary service tasks
According to Bauernhansl the number of jobs in manufacturing will be decreasing due to automation, but new jobs will be created around the machines [7]. Besides, generally increasing automation is not necessarily always related to job losses. Glatz points out that some manufacturing areas might not be automated because of economic reasons [7]. Hence, following Mittelbach, the factories of the future will not be deserted [7].
Administrative and organizational tasks will experience a slight decline of its total share. Within this category management and directive tasks will rise while the field of data processing will be increasingly automated. For the field of the knowledge driven tasks we can state the most significant increase. Here, especially the area of research and development will create a high number of new occupations. 3.3.Expert predictions on changes in manufacturing work Although the use of cyber-physical systems in practice is still in its infancy (see also Section 2), first studies were made regarding the future of work in the factories of the future. Due to the fact that there is just a small amount of reviewed practical applications of CPPS, all studies and statements have a visionary character.
Caused by an increasing product and process complexity on the one hand and the required interaction with computational automation devices on the other hand, the human working tasks will be more complex as well [12]. Hence, according to Kurz, the factory workers of the future will take over jobs which originally have been engineering tasks [7]. Hirsch-Kreinsen adds that due to that job enrichment worker and engineer occupations are merging [13]. In detail, Becker concludes that future workers need more abstraction and problem solving capabilities, the ability to perform an independent and self-organized work, and being communicative [13]. 3. The new tasks will be intensely connected to computational devices CPPS will integrate human workers and automated production parts into a combined, hybrid production system. Therefore, human flexibility can be connected to the flexibility of production machines, following Post [7]. Subsequently, Becker claims that organizational losses in production can be reduced by mobile assistance systems, intelligent automation, expert knowledge, and creativity of workers [13]. The required participation of workers in the mentioned areas will be enabled by computerized work areas, concludes Spath [7]. 4. Easy and repetitive tasks will be automated Hirsch-Kreinsen claims that the intelligent systems will substitute easy tasks. This leads to a dequalification of workers since only non-automatable tasks remain [13]. Also Reinhart is of the opinion the major part of the physical work will be executed by machines while humans operate on a higher level [7].
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5. Unique human abilities will play a more significant role for human task design The adequate utilization of unique human abilities which can only be automated at high costs or not at all will be important in future CPPS according to Post [7]. For example, humans can execute tasks with a high flexibility in comparison to automated solutions. Hence Spath expects combined, hybrid production systems where the human flexibility is used to connect automated parts of the production [7].
4.Recommend actions for CPPS design regarding future work areas According to the prediction by Koehler, CPPS will prevail in manufacturing because of their advantages [5], but then again actual studies show that up to now only a small percentage of companies have already established CPPS. Consequently, further assistance for practitioners for CPPS design and implementation is required. An important topic in this context is the integration of workforce and the intelligent and highly computerized systems. Hence we present an overview on future work areas in manufacturing, which serves as a guideline. Users get to know which actual task areas are expected to expand, remain, or be cut. The overview is based on the previously collected information presented in Section 3. We conclude our findings from three different elements: • table of company departments and classification of standard required skill levels of occupations as shown in Section 3.1, • ongoing trends regarding work areas in manufacturing as shown in Section 3.2 and • selected expert judgments on changes in manufacturing caused by CPPS as shown in Section 3.3. Figure 5 summarizes the results. The first column lists the actual standard company departments which we expect to remain the standard departments in CPPS as well. For each company department we extracted several major trend information and predictions, which can be valid for all (second column) or individual departments (third column). Additionally, we qualitatively determine a department trend value regarding its development in occupation matters in the fourth column. Here, the trend values indicate the general shift of employment. Table 4 shows the applied categories: Table 4. Trend values. Trend indicator
Meaning
++
Strong increase
+
Increase
o
Constant
-
Decrease
--
Strong decrease
Further, we include the standard skill levels which are required in the different departments (fifth column). These levels are equivalent to the levels described in Section 3.1. Here again we qualitatively determine trend indicators regarding their development in employment (sixth column). By adding up the department and skill level trends, we compute total trend values for each skill level and each company department. Here, for example, highly skilled occupation in manufacturing organization department adds up to ‘++++’, because of a department trend and a skill level trend of ‘++’ each. This table represents the basis for our decision-making aid for the design of future CPPS (Figure 5). Practitioners are able to analyze their individual company using this scheme and get an indication of the importance of a specific work area in a future CPPS. This process is organized using the following guideline: 1. Listing of existing task areas in the company and classification into company departments and skill levels 2. Evaluation of existing task areas using total trend indicators 3. Result analysis and re-organization of tasks according to the following scheme: • “++++” or “+++”: highly increasing task area job creation recommended • “++” or “+”: increasing task area job retaining recommended • “o” or “-“: required task area job merging should be considered • “--“, “---“ or “----“: decreasing task area job cutting should be considered 4. Listing of needed tasks in a CPPS on the basis of (3) 5. Utilization of (4) as a planning basis for CPPS conception and introduction • Expected task areas in the company when using a CPPS • Utilization as a decision support for long term human resource management
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Till Becker and Hendrik Stern / Procedia CIRP 57 (2016) 404 – 409
Department
Status and Prognosis
Manufacturing Organization •
Number of jobs in manufacturing are decreasing in total
•
share of occupations increases slightly
•
importance of the field increases share of occupations remains constant or decreases slightly
•
Maintenance
Manufacturing of Components
•
Shares of different occupations and skill levels change
•
Easy and repetitive tasks diminish
•
Remaining tasks get more complex (task enrichment) and more computerized
Assembly •
Complex tasks are newly created
• •
•
•
•
• In-HouseTransport
•
Department Trend
Skill Levels
++
1 Highly skilled 2 Skilled with managerial functions 3 Skilled 4 Lower skilled 5 Auxiliary
Skill Trend ++ ++ o --
Total Trend ++++ ++++ ++ + o
+
1 Highly skilled 2 Skilled with managerial functions 3 Skilled 4 Lower skilled 5 Auxiliary
++ + o --
+++ ++ + o -
-
1 Highly skilled 2 Skilled with managerial functions 3 Skilled 4 Lower skilled 5 Auxiliary
++ + ---
+ o -------
-
1 Highly skilled 2 Skilled with managerial functions 3 Skilled 4 Lower skilled 5 Auxiliary
++ + ---
+ o -------
-
1 Highly skilled 2 Skilled with managerial functions 3 Skilled 4 Lower skilled 5 Auxiliary
++ + ---
+ o -------
high level automation requires maintenance share of occupations decreases strongly field consists of easy and repetitive tasks mainly share of occupations decreases strongly field consists of easy and repetitive tasks mainly share of occupations decreases strongly field consists of easy and repetitive tasks mainly
Fig. 4. Overview of work area trends
5.Conclusion In order to use the potential enabled by CPPS, an explicit examination of the future role of human workers in the factories of the future is necessary. According to expert predictions and employment studies, the future human work areas will be different but not fully replaced by automated solutions. Consequently, a scientific discussion on the integration of workers into CPPS is needed. As one element on this path, we provided an overview and a trend estimation for future human work areas in manufacturing in this paper. Based on this first result, an evaluation of this tool is necessary as a next step in order to assess its practical usability. Acknowledgements This work has been supported by the Institutional Strategy of the University of Bremen, funded by the German Excellence Initiative.
References [1] Baheti R, Gill H. Cyber-physical Systems. In: Samad T, Annaswamy AM, editors. The Impact of Control Technology: 2011. [2] Cyber-Physical Systems: Chancen und Nutzen aus Sicht der Automation: VDI/VDE-Gesellschaft; 2013. [3] Geisberger E, Broy M. agendaCPS – Integrierte Forschungsagenda CyberPhysical-Systems: acatech; 2012. [4] Kagermann H, Wahlster W, Helbig J. Umsetzungsempfehlungen für das Zukunftsprojekt Industrie 4.0 – Abschlussbericht des Arbeitskreises Industrie 4.0. Frankfurt am Main: 2013. [5] Köhler-Schulte C. Industrie 4.0 – Ein praxisorientierter Ansatz. Berlin: 2015. [6] Hirsch-Kreinsen H: Welche Auswirkungen hat “Industrie 4.0” auf die Arbeitswelt: Fridrich-Ebert-Stiftung (WISO direkt): 2014. [7] Spath D. Produktionsarbeit der Zukunft – Industrie 4.0: Fraunhofer IAO: 2013. [8] REFA – Verband für Arbeitsstudien und Betriebsorganisation. Arbeitsgestaltung in der Produktion. München: 1991. [9] Weidig I, Hofer P, Wolff H. Arbeitslandschaft 2010 nach Tätigkeiten und Tätigkeitsniveau. Beiträge zur Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung 1999: 227. [10] Vogler-Ludwig K, Düll N. Arbeitsmarkt 2030 – Eine strategische Vorausschau auf Demografie, Beschäftigung und Bildung in Deutschland. Bielefeld: 2013. [11] Prognos AG. Arbeitslandschaft 2035: 2012. [12] Dombrowski U, Wagner T. Arbeitsbedingungen im Wandel der Industrie 4.0 – Mitarbeiterpartizipation als Erfolgsfaktor zur Akzeptanzbildung und Kompetenzentwicklung. In: Zeitschrift für wirtschaftlichen Fabrikbetrieb (ZWF) 2014;109:5. [13] Botthoff A, Hartmann E A. Zukunft der Arbeit in Industrie 4.0. Berlin: 2015.
ScienceDirect Procedia CIRP 57 (2016) 404 – 409
49th CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems (CIRP-CMS 2016)
Future trends in human work area design for cyber-physical production systems Till Beckera,b, Hendrik Sterna,b* a
University of Bremen, Production Systems and Logistic Systems, Hochschulring 20, 28359 Bremen, Germany b BIBA- Bremer Institut für Produktion und Logistik, Hochschulring 20, 28359 Bremen, Germany
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +49-421-21850038; fax: +49-421-218-9850038. E-mail address: [email protected]
Abstract Currently, there is an ongoing transformation of classical products and machinery towards cyber-physical systems. Main features of these systems are the real-time data exchange between various technical and computational elements enabled by communication technologies and data processing ability provided by embedded systems. In the area of manufacturing, this trend boosts the development of cyber-physical production systems (CPPS). They enable the optimization of control processes, for example by autonomous decision-making, computational assistant systems for workers, or an extended human-machine collaboration. Subsequently, this increased computerization and automation provokes changes for human work in manufacturing. Following leading experts, the factories of the future will provide less easy and repetitive but more advanced and complex tasks. This trend changes the way how human factors or human-machine interaction influence the design of manufacturing systems. In order to achieve the promised productivity gains created by CPPS, these human-related topics have to be considered and included into the technical and organizational development of CPPS. As a starting point, a detailed view on remaining and newly added human tasks in CPPS is necessary. In this paper, we provide a listing of human task areas in existing and future CPPS. In this regard, we provide a trend estimation on the decline, rise, or further change of these tasks. The results can be used to facilitate the integration of human factors in the design of CPPS. We carry out our work by firstly deriving a standard listing of tasks for a generalized manufacturing system. Secondly, we combine the findings with expert judgments regarding CPPS trends and recent employment data from the German job market. ©©2016 Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license 2015The The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of Scientific committee of the 49th CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems (CIRP-CMS 2016). Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 49th CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems Keywords: Human factors; Cyber-physical production systems; Industry 4.0; Work area design
1.Introduction The vision of cyber-physical production systems (CPPS) will provoke changes in many ways in the area of manufacturing, which include technical as well as organizational changes. One topic that has been addressed in literature frequently concerns the role of the human workers in these factories of the future. On the one hand, statistical studies can be found, which provide an outlook on the future employment situation of specific work areas and skill levels
on an empirical basis. On the other hand, CPPS-related work is available which does a qualitatively and visionary expert prognosis on the changes of manufacturing work. In order to combine these sources and to provide additional help for practitioners who are about to implement CPPS, we present an overview and a trend estimation for future human work areas in manufacturing. In this regard, we firstly present a brief introduction to CPPS and the changes of manufacturing work. Secondly, we work on statuses, trends, and prediction of future work area
2212-8271 © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 49th CIRP Conference on Manufacturing Systems doi:10.1016/j.procir.2016.11.070
405
Till Becker and Hendrik Stern / Procedia CIRP 57 (2016) 404 – 409
design as a preliminary work. Finally, we compile an overview and a guideline for CPPS practitioners regarding trends for future human work areas. Due to the fact, that a major part of the scientific community of this topic is publishing their work with references to Germany or the German manufacturing sector, many relevant publications are only available in German language. Consequently, some of these publications can be found as a reference for this paper. 2.Cyber-physical production systems (CPPS) 2.1.Factories of the future Cyber-physical systems represent a new kind of technological systems which combine and integrate embedded systems, physical and computational elements as well as humans by connection via Internet [1]. They are forming the basis for different and innovative products and processes which functionalities are enabled by the interplay of these components. Examples are solutions for intelligent mobility concepts, Smart Grids or eHealth systems [2, 3]. In the area of production and logistics, cyber-physical systems provide the basis for the so-called fourth industrial revolution (or ‘Industry 4.0’). Mainly, it addresses an enhancing intelligence of products and systems and its vertical cross linking [4]. Following Köhler, this will be represented in a connection of sensors and actors of automation on the one hand and the levels of production management, control, and planning on the other hand. By this action, autonomous production control is enabled and can be used for flexible and complex production environments [5]. Likewise, the products manufactured in CPPS are expected to change into so-called ‘Smart Products’. Here, products are equipped with integrated electronic components in order to provide product-specific information for data exchange and localization purposes. These products therefore can selfinfluence their lifecycle processes such as manufacturing, use, or recycling [5]. Currently, first examples of applied CPPS can be found in practice. Amberg describes the case of a packaging line, which performs a decentralized distribution of data on product sizes. This data is used for an autonomous positioning of packaging machines according to the upcoming product sizes. [5]. Another application targets the improvement of the material supply caused by a cyber-physical milk run. Here, manufacturing orders are equipped with QR-Codes (twodimensional barcodes) which have to be scanned during the manufacturing process. These information is transmitted to a software tool which computes current material demand and plans the upcoming milk runs. Subsequently, the computed routes and dates are presented to the logistics workers [5]. According to the given examples it can be reasoned that CPPS are able to fulfil the expectations regarding its optimization potential. Besides, following Köhler, we can assume further use cases created by CPPS, e.g., in the field of quality or working conditions, although practical confirmation is not available yet [5].
2.2.Changes of manufacturing work Due to the displayed technical and organizational shift provoked by cyber-physical production systems, future manufacturing work will experience changes as well. Leading experts expect less basic, repetitive work but more ambitious working tasks in collaboration with cyber-physical production machines or in machine surveillance. Hence the factories of the future will not be deserted but organized as a hybrid production system (i.e. a combined system, where human and automated parts work side by side) [6, 7]. 3.Statuses, trends, and predictions of future work area design in CPPS The present paper mainly focuses on a trend analysis of human work areas in cyber-physical production systems. As a result, an overview of future work areas is provided, which can be used as a guideline for practitioners during the planning process of new cyber-physical production systems. As a preliminary work, in this section we investigate the present human work areas, its current changes, and expected future status. Here, we firstly focus on the situation of work areas in manufacturing today and present a standard classification of work areas and qualification levels of jobs in manufacturing. Secondly, we examine ongoing employment trends regarding manufacturing work. Here, we concentrate on changes of the demand distribution of qualification levels. Finally, we bring together selected visionary expert predictions on work area changes in manufacturing. This collection pictures the long-term changes to be expected. 3.1.Standard work areas in manufacturing According to the REFA association, all company departments which are related to the production can be organized as shown exemplarily in Figure 1. Here, a generic organization scheme is displayed, which might differ depending on a company’s individual situation. For example, in this illustration a development department is included, which might not be the case in all production and logistics companies. Table 1 additionally shows a brief task description of all manufacturing-related company departments [8]. Production Production Organization
Development
Procurement
Manufacturing
Quality Control Manufacturing Organization
Maintenance
Manufacturing of Components
Assembly
Fig. 1. General production organization scheme [8]
In-House Transport
406
Till Becker and Hendrik Stern / Procedia CIRP 57 (2016) 404 – 409 Table 1. Company departments and their task areas [8] Department
Task
Manufacturing Organization
Includes the work area design, logistical planning, and operative control in manufacturing.
Maintenance
Consists of all actions heading for the preservation and restoration of resources and tools.
Manufacturing of Components
Performs the manufacturing of components, which can be the final product or input for assembly.
Assembly
Performs the assembly of components to modules or products.
In-House Transport
Provides the material flow between manufacturing subdepartments or resources and tools.
In this paper, we assume the manufacturing-related departments shown in Figure 1 (manufacturing organization, maintenance, manufacturing of components, assembly, and in-house transport) as the current work areas in manufacturing. Besides, we are exclusively focusing on the manufacturing department. Other company departments and their work areas, such as marketing or accounting, might as well be affected by the integration of cyber-physical systems but are not further considered at this point. Adjacent to the presented categorization of work areas from a company organizational point of view, work areas can also be subdivided according to the required skill and qualification level. Following a classification made by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), we adopt the following subdivision of skill levels: Table 2. IAB subdivision of skill levels [9]. Occupation level
Description
Highly skilled occupation
Occupation with superior formal qualification required, e.g., on university level
Skilled occupation with managerial functions
Occupation with senior formal qualification required, e.g., on master craftsmen level
Skilled occupation
Occupation with formal job-related qualification required
Lower skilled occupation
Occupation without formal job-related qualification required
Auxiliary occupation
Occupation without any job-related qualification required
3.2.Ongoing trends regarding work areas in manufacturing Actual work areas in manufacturing are currently experiencing transformations caused by several reasons. Adjacent to major events such as globalization and the demographic change, the proceeding computerization by cyber-physical systems plays an important role in this context. The cyber-physical systems provoke rationalization effects by further digitalization, inter-linking, and automation of processes [10] as outlined in the previous section. As a result, the type of human work required in the factories of the future is changing. A study performed by
Prognos claims a rising demand for highly skilled occupation but less demand for auxiliary occupation in the next two decades [11]. This effect is characteristic for technical and organizational progresses, which always lead to less demand for easy, repetitive and more demand for complex tasks [10]. Vogler-Ludwig and Düll additionally predict a significant drop of jobs in the manufacturing area. They estimate the number of lost jobs in Germany until 2035 to 1 million. In contrast, they expect the number of managerial positions to be rising by 170.000 [10]. When taking a closer look at the lost manufacturing jobs, we find different predictions for specific task areas and qualification levels within the manufacturing area. While the numbers of jobs for machine and plant manufacturers, assemblers, metal workers, and warehouse workers diminish, the numbers of jobs for engineers and managers increase. Figure 2 gives an overview on the changes in these and other manufacturing (and company) work areas. Assembly occupations Light engineering occupations Product testing occupations Storekeeper, Transport occupations Metal-cutting manufacturing occupations Accounting occupations, Computer scientists Metal and plant engineering occupations Machine operators Unskilled labour Electricians Sales occupations Engineering an maintenance occupations Technicians Management positions, Consulting Office occupations Engineers
0 2030
2
4
6
8
10
2010
Fig. 2. Employment shares in the metalworking industry in per cent [10]
These trends can be supported by the Prognos study [11]. When comparing 2011 and the estimated development until 2035, the authors predict a decline of easy and a rise of complex tasks as well. In 2035, on the one hand, approximately 53 percent of production workers in Germany are expected to still be directly involved in production of goods, but on the other hand the share of work areas close to the production line is decreasing below 20 percent (see figure 3). On the other hand, the share of jobs related to the provision of reliable and safe processes and the creation and spreading of knowledge and information is estimated to rise up to 47 percent [11].
Till Becker and Hendrik Stern / Procedia CIRP 57 (2016) 404 – 409
In the following, we present five main expert predictions regarding the future production work (in general and in manufacturing).
100% 90% 80% 70%
1. Humans will be absolutely necessary in the factories of the future
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2011
2015
2020
Tasks near the production line
2025
2030
2035
Primary service tasks
Administrative and organizational tasks Knowledge driven tasks
Fig. 3. Occupation structure 2011-2035 in production area [11]
2. The new tasks will be more complex
The authors further number the individual changes for specific task areas (see Table 3). Regarding the tasks which are located near the production line, we can state a uniform decline throughout all investigated task areas. For the primary service tasks the situation is different caused by an expected rise in demand which can partially compensate the rationalization effects and reduces the decline of the total share. Table 3. Individual changes for specific task areas. Task category
Specific tasks
Share 2011
Share 2035
Tasks near the production line
Machine setup and surveillance
6.3
5.4
Manufacturing, Processing
9.1
7.8
Cleaning
4.3
4.3
Transport, Packaging
6.1
5.5
Administrative and organizational tasks
Management, Direction
5.6
5.8
Data processing
12.4
11.8
Knowledge driven tasks
Research and Development
5.0
6.1
Primary service tasks
According to Bauernhansl the number of jobs in manufacturing will be decreasing due to automation, but new jobs will be created around the machines [7]. Besides, generally increasing automation is not necessarily always related to job losses. Glatz points out that some manufacturing areas might not be automated because of economic reasons [7]. Hence, following Mittelbach, the factories of the future will not be deserted [7].
Administrative and organizational tasks will experience a slight decline of its total share. Within this category management and directive tasks will rise while the field of data processing will be increasingly automated. For the field of the knowledge driven tasks we can state the most significant increase. Here, especially the area of research and development will create a high number of new occupations. 3.3.Expert predictions on changes in manufacturing work Although the use of cyber-physical systems in practice is still in its infancy (see also Section 2), first studies were made regarding the future of work in the factories of the future. Due to the fact that there is just a small amount of reviewed practical applications of CPPS, all studies and statements have a visionary character.
Caused by an increasing product and process complexity on the one hand and the required interaction with computational automation devices on the other hand, the human working tasks will be more complex as well [12]. Hence, according to Kurz, the factory workers of the future will take over jobs which originally have been engineering tasks [7]. Hirsch-Kreinsen adds that due to that job enrichment worker and engineer occupations are merging [13]. In detail, Becker concludes that future workers need more abstraction and problem solving capabilities, the ability to perform an independent and self-organized work, and being communicative [13]. 3. The new tasks will be intensely connected to computational devices CPPS will integrate human workers and automated production parts into a combined, hybrid production system. Therefore, human flexibility can be connected to the flexibility of production machines, following Post [7]. Subsequently, Becker claims that organizational losses in production can be reduced by mobile assistance systems, intelligent automation, expert knowledge, and creativity of workers [13]. The required participation of workers in the mentioned areas will be enabled by computerized work areas, concludes Spath [7]. 4. Easy and repetitive tasks will be automated Hirsch-Kreinsen claims that the intelligent systems will substitute easy tasks. This leads to a dequalification of workers since only non-automatable tasks remain [13]. Also Reinhart is of the opinion the major part of the physical work will be executed by machines while humans operate on a higher level [7].
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5. Unique human abilities will play a more significant role for human task design The adequate utilization of unique human abilities which can only be automated at high costs or not at all will be important in future CPPS according to Post [7]. For example, humans can execute tasks with a high flexibility in comparison to automated solutions. Hence Spath expects combined, hybrid production systems where the human flexibility is used to connect automated parts of the production [7].
4.Recommend actions for CPPS design regarding future work areas According to the prediction by Koehler, CPPS will prevail in manufacturing because of their advantages [5], but then again actual studies show that up to now only a small percentage of companies have already established CPPS. Consequently, further assistance for practitioners for CPPS design and implementation is required. An important topic in this context is the integration of workforce and the intelligent and highly computerized systems. Hence we present an overview on future work areas in manufacturing, which serves as a guideline. Users get to know which actual task areas are expected to expand, remain, or be cut. The overview is based on the previously collected information presented in Section 3. We conclude our findings from three different elements: • table of company departments and classification of standard required skill levels of occupations as shown in Section 3.1, • ongoing trends regarding work areas in manufacturing as shown in Section 3.2 and • selected expert judgments on changes in manufacturing caused by CPPS as shown in Section 3.3. Figure 5 summarizes the results. The first column lists the actual standard company departments which we expect to remain the standard departments in CPPS as well. For each company department we extracted several major trend information and predictions, which can be valid for all (second column) or individual departments (third column). Additionally, we qualitatively determine a department trend value regarding its development in occupation matters in the fourth column. Here, the trend values indicate the general shift of employment. Table 4 shows the applied categories: Table 4. Trend values. Trend indicator
Meaning
++
Strong increase
+
Increase
o
Constant
-
Decrease
--
Strong decrease
Further, we include the standard skill levels which are required in the different departments (fifth column). These levels are equivalent to the levels described in Section 3.1. Here again we qualitatively determine trend indicators regarding their development in employment (sixth column). By adding up the department and skill level trends, we compute total trend values for each skill level and each company department. Here, for example, highly skilled occupation in manufacturing organization department adds up to ‘++++’, because of a department trend and a skill level trend of ‘++’ each. This table represents the basis for our decision-making aid for the design of future CPPS (Figure 5). Practitioners are able to analyze their individual company using this scheme and get an indication of the importance of a specific work area in a future CPPS. This process is organized using the following guideline: 1. Listing of existing task areas in the company and classification into company departments and skill levels 2. Evaluation of existing task areas using total trend indicators 3. Result analysis and re-organization of tasks according to the following scheme: • “++++” or “+++”: highly increasing task area job creation recommended • “++” or “+”: increasing task area job retaining recommended • “o” or “-“: required task area job merging should be considered • “--“, “---“ or “----“: decreasing task area job cutting should be considered 4. Listing of needed tasks in a CPPS on the basis of (3) 5. Utilization of (4) as a planning basis for CPPS conception and introduction • Expected task areas in the company when using a CPPS • Utilization as a decision support for long term human resource management
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Department
Status and Prognosis
Manufacturing Organization •
Number of jobs in manufacturing are decreasing in total
•
share of occupations increases slightly
•
importance of the field increases share of occupations remains constant or decreases slightly
•
Maintenance
Manufacturing of Components
•
Shares of different occupations and skill levels change
•
Easy and repetitive tasks diminish
•
Remaining tasks get more complex (task enrichment) and more computerized
Assembly •
Complex tasks are newly created
• •
•
•
•
• In-HouseTransport
•
Department Trend
Skill Levels
++
1 Highly skilled 2 Skilled with managerial functions 3 Skilled 4 Lower skilled 5 Auxiliary
Skill Trend ++ ++ o --
Total Trend ++++ ++++ ++ + o
+
1 Highly skilled 2 Skilled with managerial functions 3 Skilled 4 Lower skilled 5 Auxiliary
++ + o --
+++ ++ + o -
-
1 Highly skilled 2 Skilled with managerial functions 3 Skilled 4 Lower skilled 5 Auxiliary
++ + ---
+ o -------
-
1 Highly skilled 2 Skilled with managerial functions 3 Skilled 4 Lower skilled 5 Auxiliary
++ + ---
+ o -------
-
1 Highly skilled 2 Skilled with managerial functions 3 Skilled 4 Lower skilled 5 Auxiliary
++ + ---
+ o -------
high level automation requires maintenance share of occupations decreases strongly field consists of easy and repetitive tasks mainly share of occupations decreases strongly field consists of easy and repetitive tasks mainly share of occupations decreases strongly field consists of easy and repetitive tasks mainly
Fig. 4. Overview of work area trends
5.Conclusion In order to use the potential enabled by CPPS, an explicit examination of the future role of human workers in the factories of the future is necessary. According to expert predictions and employment studies, the future human work areas will be different but not fully replaced by automated solutions. Consequently, a scientific discussion on the integration of workers into CPPS is needed. As one element on this path, we provided an overview and a trend estimation for future human work areas in manufacturing in this paper. Based on this first result, an evaluation of this tool is necessary as a next step in order to assess its practical usability. Acknowledgements This work has been supported by the Institutional Strategy of the University of Bremen, funded by the German Excellence Initiative.
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