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Future worlds
Book Reviews
485
In addition to the factual presentation, the authors provide a wealth of interpretive commentary. The interpretations contain many surprises. For example, in the face of imminent catastrophe, altruism lives: Over the parameter range tested, educational measures seem to be more effective water savers than economic measures. This result, however, is one curious aspect of the book. The authors invest considerable effort to convince the reader that water is severely underpriced; they argue that price is established by what is necessary to recover the water agency's expenses. In fact, pricing procedures generally encourage consumption. At the same time they argue that price increases to reduce consumption may not be that effective. This is so for two reasons. First, most conservation strategies are aimed at residential consumers, a group who do not consume a major portion o! supplied water. Second, most money-related conservation strategies are aimed at long-term solutions and have little bearing or effect on catastrophic situations. Major consumers especially sensitive to pricing strategiesagriculture and i n d u s t r y - h a v e been almost immune to conservation tactics because policymaking agencies are extremely reluctant to enter this sector of the economy. In light of this aspect of the California drought impact, it is surprising that the authors spend so much of the book treating pricing strategies. Regardless of the reader's bias or interest in water pricing, the authors' analysis is gratifyingly thoughtprovoking. I enjoyed this book and learned a great deal. James P. McGuirk Professor of Meteorology Texas A&M University College Station, Texas 77843
Future Worlds (1981) by J. Gribbin. Plenum Press,
New York (224 pp., U.S. $14.95) In 1978, the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) of the University of Sussex published World Futures. That work dealt with four possible world scenarios, the four possible permutations of high and low growth and high and low future social equality. The shorter Future Worlds was written by Dr. John Gribbin, an independent contributor to the Sussex SPRU work, and is intended as a counterpart to World Futures. Its purpose is to set out in compact form the main theme of the "best" future world for the next fifty years. This review will consider Gribbin's book separately from the more extensive World Futures, with a view to assessing the contribution of Future Worlds itself. It will deal with two main questions: how well Gribbin succeeded in meeting that objective and, as a related issue, the worth of such a book as Future Worlds to the serious futures literature. In his introduction, Gribbin properly points out that he intends not to describe what he expects "will" happen,
but what "may" happen in selected circumstances. His theme is therefore to concentrate on the one scenario that emerges after study as not only possible but desirable, providing mankind with a pleasant future world to live in. In that "best" world future, economic and industrial growth can be combined with a more equitable distribution of the world's wealth to ensure reasonable standards for all. The author does this by dividing his discussion into three principal parts, each of three chapters, in which he treats what he believes to be the principal issues: population and food, energy alternatives, raw materials, and technology and society. In doing so, he endeavors to steer a course somewhere between Meadows and Meadows' pessimistic Limits to Growth and Herman Kahn's euphoric The Year 2000. As a result, Future Worlds comes off not only as surprise-free but, in addition, rather bland and unexciting. One limitation of the book is its presentation in a conversational and discursive style. While such a presentation allows Gribbin to include a great many topics in his arguments, it leaves the reader balancing a great many options and possibilities. For example, in his discussion of energy alternatives, Gribbin lists the SPRU array of fossil, nuclear, and replaceable fuels, and then points out the climatic consequences of hydrocarbon fuel consumption. Where issues arise, the author provides description rather than analysis. The discussion thus ends without defining how the energy in the desirable world future will be provided. Gribbin does indeed recite in his discussion many of the significant technological elements that affect the way in which the world will develop over the next five decades. Future Worlds affords a comprehensive summary of the physical and technical aspects of that future; it is less effective in dealing with the sociology, economics, and political science of that future. Thus, while Gribbin employs Bell's vocabulary of "industrial" and "post-industrial" societies, his treatment of the consequences of that social transition is brief and superficial. The book is therefore a competent survey of the literature of possible world futures, but it fails to make a persuasive case for the interactions that will generate the scenario it presents. It is not clear to this reviewer what audience Future Worlds is intended to reach. Because of the way in which Gribbin has organized the book, the reader is required to be familiar with the existing futurist literature, especially such frequently mentioned works as Limits to Growth and The N e x t Two H u n d r e d Years. The author refers the interested reader to the more extensive SPRU World Futures as well. This suggests that Gribbin intends to reach the professional planner, the reader who follows the futurist literature and makes policy decisions about business, government, or society. In the reviewer's opinion, however, Future Worlds adds little to what such readers will already have read, either by way of data or analysis. On the other hand, Future Worlds is not a satisfactory book for the general reader, requiring
486
Book Reviews
as it does some familiarity with the other related works noted. An important book remains to be written about the post-industrial future, and how it will differ from our industrial present. We now know how rural, agricultural pre-industrial society differed from our urban industrial world. We do not yet understand how different the postindustrial world of the next century will be. Regrettably, Future Worlds offers little insight into the nature o f that world, or o f the decisions that must be made to make it desirable. We must therefore continue to await the work that will usefully delineate that future. Ren6 D. Zentner Associate Dean University o f Houston Law Center Houston, Texas 77004
Fluidization (1980). John R. Grace and John M.
Matsen, eds. Plenum Press, New York (U.S. $69.50). This book is a compilation of the papers presented at the International Fluidization Conference held at Henniker, NH, from August 3-8, 1980. The Conference itself is the fifth in a series of International Congresses on the subject of fluidization. In keeping with its international nature, the series has been held in different countries and invited international participation. The Henniker Conference itself featured papers from seventeen countries and was broadly representative of the worldwide activity in the field o f fluidization. Including the indexes, the book is over 600 pages long at a price of a little over ten cents per page. The sixty research papers have been refereed by nearly a hundred experts, which should ensure a reasonable minimum standard. The so-called camera-ready format has been used to publish the volume quickly, but, surprisingly, without serious detriment to the uniformity of the type-
script on the pages. The papers are not grouped according to subdivision in the subject matter (except for the separation o f the three invited review papers) and this does make it a little difficult for the uninitiated to "home in" on their specific topic o f interest, although the subject index does help in this respect. The papers, as would be expected, cover a wide range of topics of interest in fluidization. An invited review describes the history of development o f fluidized solids technology at one industrial organization (Exxon) and its first commercial application to the catalytic cracking of oil. One of the significant potential developments will be the commercial use of this technology in the combustion of coal in an environmentally acceptable manner. This aspect is obviously o f most interest to the readers of this journal. Since there have been a number of conferences devoted just to this topic, it is not the subject of too many papers here. There are only two papers that studied the combustion o f coal and emissions from such combustion and the experiments were done in fairly small laboratory size fluidized beds. Interestingly, both studied the potential reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions achievable by reaction with char. There are no papers on emissions of sulfur oxides from coal and their abatement. These comments are not meant to be critical but to alert the potential reader whose main interest is in environmental protection. The rest of the papers cover several aspects of fluidization. These include particle mixing, attrition and entrainment, gas mixing, and heat transfer between solids and gas, as well as between the fluidized bed and internals. Both experimental and theoretical studies are reported on. There is no doubt that the sum total of papers in the book is of value to the researcher in the field as well as to those that would have the responsibility for design of fluidized beds. C. R. Krishna
Brookhaven National Laboratory Upton, New York 11973
485
In addition to the factual presentation, the authors provide a wealth of interpretive commentary. The interpretations contain many surprises. For example, in the face of imminent catastrophe, altruism lives: Over the parameter range tested, educational measures seem to be more effective water savers than economic measures. This result, however, is one curious aspect of the book. The authors invest considerable effort to convince the reader that water is severely underpriced; they argue that price is established by what is necessary to recover the water agency's expenses. In fact, pricing procedures generally encourage consumption. At the same time they argue that price increases to reduce consumption may not be that effective. This is so for two reasons. First, most conservation strategies are aimed at residential consumers, a group who do not consume a major portion o! supplied water. Second, most money-related conservation strategies are aimed at long-term solutions and have little bearing or effect on catastrophic situations. Major consumers especially sensitive to pricing strategiesagriculture and i n d u s t r y - h a v e been almost immune to conservation tactics because policymaking agencies are extremely reluctant to enter this sector of the economy. In light of this aspect of the California drought impact, it is surprising that the authors spend so much of the book treating pricing strategies. Regardless of the reader's bias or interest in water pricing, the authors' analysis is gratifyingly thoughtprovoking. I enjoyed this book and learned a great deal. James P. McGuirk Professor of Meteorology Texas A&M University College Station, Texas 77843
Future Worlds (1981) by J. Gribbin. Plenum Press,
New York (224 pp., U.S. $14.95) In 1978, the Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) of the University of Sussex published World Futures. That work dealt with four possible world scenarios, the four possible permutations of high and low growth and high and low future social equality. The shorter Future Worlds was written by Dr. John Gribbin, an independent contributor to the Sussex SPRU work, and is intended as a counterpart to World Futures. Its purpose is to set out in compact form the main theme of the "best" future world for the next fifty years. This review will consider Gribbin's book separately from the more extensive World Futures, with a view to assessing the contribution of Future Worlds itself. It will deal with two main questions: how well Gribbin succeeded in meeting that objective and, as a related issue, the worth of such a book as Future Worlds to the serious futures literature. In his introduction, Gribbin properly points out that he intends not to describe what he expects "will" happen,
but what "may" happen in selected circumstances. His theme is therefore to concentrate on the one scenario that emerges after study as not only possible but desirable, providing mankind with a pleasant future world to live in. In that "best" world future, economic and industrial growth can be combined with a more equitable distribution of the world's wealth to ensure reasonable standards for all. The author does this by dividing his discussion into three principal parts, each of three chapters, in which he treats what he believes to be the principal issues: population and food, energy alternatives, raw materials, and technology and society. In doing so, he endeavors to steer a course somewhere between Meadows and Meadows' pessimistic Limits to Growth and Herman Kahn's euphoric The Year 2000. As a result, Future Worlds comes off not only as surprise-free but, in addition, rather bland and unexciting. One limitation of the book is its presentation in a conversational and discursive style. While such a presentation allows Gribbin to include a great many topics in his arguments, it leaves the reader balancing a great many options and possibilities. For example, in his discussion of energy alternatives, Gribbin lists the SPRU array of fossil, nuclear, and replaceable fuels, and then points out the climatic consequences of hydrocarbon fuel consumption. Where issues arise, the author provides description rather than analysis. The discussion thus ends without defining how the energy in the desirable world future will be provided. Gribbin does indeed recite in his discussion many of the significant technological elements that affect the way in which the world will develop over the next five decades. Future Worlds affords a comprehensive summary of the physical and technical aspects of that future; it is less effective in dealing with the sociology, economics, and political science of that future. Thus, while Gribbin employs Bell's vocabulary of "industrial" and "post-industrial" societies, his treatment of the consequences of that social transition is brief and superficial. The book is therefore a competent survey of the literature of possible world futures, but it fails to make a persuasive case for the interactions that will generate the scenario it presents. It is not clear to this reviewer what audience Future Worlds is intended to reach. Because of the way in which Gribbin has organized the book, the reader is required to be familiar with the existing futurist literature, especially such frequently mentioned works as Limits to Growth and The N e x t Two H u n d r e d Years. The author refers the interested reader to the more extensive SPRU World Futures as well. This suggests that Gribbin intends to reach the professional planner, the reader who follows the futurist literature and makes policy decisions about business, government, or society. In the reviewer's opinion, however, Future Worlds adds little to what such readers will already have read, either by way of data or analysis. On the other hand, Future Worlds is not a satisfactory book for the general reader, requiring
486
Book Reviews
as it does some familiarity with the other related works noted. An important book remains to be written about the post-industrial future, and how it will differ from our industrial present. We now know how rural, agricultural pre-industrial society differed from our urban industrial world. We do not yet understand how different the postindustrial world of the next century will be. Regrettably, Future Worlds offers little insight into the nature o f that world, or o f the decisions that must be made to make it desirable. We must therefore continue to await the work that will usefully delineate that future. Ren6 D. Zentner Associate Dean University o f Houston Law Center Houston, Texas 77004
Fluidization (1980). John R. Grace and John M.
Matsen, eds. Plenum Press, New York (U.S. $69.50). This book is a compilation of the papers presented at the International Fluidization Conference held at Henniker, NH, from August 3-8, 1980. The Conference itself is the fifth in a series of International Congresses on the subject of fluidization. In keeping with its international nature, the series has been held in different countries and invited international participation. The Henniker Conference itself featured papers from seventeen countries and was broadly representative of the worldwide activity in the field o f fluidization. Including the indexes, the book is over 600 pages long at a price of a little over ten cents per page. The sixty research papers have been refereed by nearly a hundred experts, which should ensure a reasonable minimum standard. The so-called camera-ready format has been used to publish the volume quickly, but, surprisingly, without serious detriment to the uniformity of the type-
script on the pages. The papers are not grouped according to subdivision in the subject matter (except for the separation o f the three invited review papers) and this does make it a little difficult for the uninitiated to "home in" on their specific topic o f interest, although the subject index does help in this respect. The papers, as would be expected, cover a wide range of topics of interest in fluidization. An invited review describes the history of development o f fluidized solids technology at one industrial organization (Exxon) and its first commercial application to the catalytic cracking of oil. One of the significant potential developments will be the commercial use of this technology in the combustion of coal in an environmentally acceptable manner. This aspect is obviously o f most interest to the readers of this journal. Since there have been a number of conferences devoted just to this topic, it is not the subject of too many papers here. There are only two papers that studied the combustion o f coal and emissions from such combustion and the experiments were done in fairly small laboratory size fluidized beds. Interestingly, both studied the potential reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions achievable by reaction with char. There are no papers on emissions of sulfur oxides from coal and their abatement. These comments are not meant to be critical but to alert the potential reader whose main interest is in environmental protection. The rest of the papers cover several aspects of fluidization. These include particle mixing, attrition and entrainment, gas mixing, and heat transfer between solids and gas, as well as between the fluidized bed and internals. Both experimental and theoretical studies are reported on. There is no doubt that the sum total of papers in the book is of value to the researcher in the field as well as to those that would have the responsibility for design of fluidized beds. C. R. Krishna
Brookhaven National Laboratory Upton, New York 11973