- Email: [email protected]
Futures research and the IPCC assessment study on the effects of climate change
Futures 40 (2008) 873–876
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Futures journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/futures
Futures research and the IPCC assessment study on the effects of climate change Go¨ran Nordlund * Haahkatie 12 A 16, FIN-00200 Helsinki, Finland
A R T I C L E I N F O
A B S T R A C T
Available online 22 July 2008
Mainly based on a survey of the occurrence of futures research-related references in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, I have investigated the contribution of futures research to the IPCC assessments of the effects of climate change. The assumption I have made here is that, if futures research has made a contribution to the IPCC assessment work, it should also be reflected in the references quoted or cited. I have also briefly commented on the activities by the futurists themselves regarding the future challenge of climate change. As a complement to the contribution survey, I ask and discuss to what degree futures research could and should be participating in a study like that of the IPCC. The survey of the futures research contributions showed that, up to now, futures research has been only modestly represented in the IPCC climate change effect assessment studies. The contribution both could and should have been more extensive than it has been up to the present, a view to which I return in the final discussion. ß 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction During recent decades, climate change has been one of the most discussed and studied future challenges. The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has formed the central forum in coordinating and summing up the studies of climate change both as an atmospheric phenomena, and as relating to the assessments of the effects of climate change on the natural environment and human life [1,2]. All aspects of human life will at least to some degree be affected by the expected climate change, for which reason futures research cannot overlook climate change and its effects as an irrelevant topic. To what extent could and should futures research then be involved in the studies of climate change, and in particular in the foresight of its effects, is therefore a justified question. Before discussing the need for and nature of possible contributions by futures research in climate change effect assessment studies, it is interesting to look at how much futures research in fact has already been involved in the climate change studies within the IPCC work. For this purpose I have checked all the approx.13,000 references of the effects related Working Group II and III Reports [3,4] of the recent Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC, seeking such references that could be related to futures research, either by their place of publication, i.e. the name of the research journal, or by the name of the author. The performance and the results of this survey are presented in Chapter 2. In Chapter 3, I take up the question of how far futures research could and should be contributing to a study like IPCC. Finally, in Chapter 4 I discuss the responsibilities for establishing extended co-operation between futures research and the IPCC. My opinions I base on my professional knowledge of climate change research, and on my study of the futures research literature.
* Tel.: +358 50 4645684. E-mail address: [email protected].fi. 0016-3287/$ – see front matter ß 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2008.07.022
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G. Nordlund / Futures 40 (2008) 873–876
2. References to futures research in the IPCC reports The IPCC work is summarized within three main reports, one for each of the three Working Groups: I. The Physical Science Basis, II. Impacts, Adaptation And Vulnerability and III. Mitigation of Climate Change.
In seeking for references related to futures research I have, as already mentioned, focused on the reports II and III, which deal with the effects of climate change and the possibilities of delaying and minimizing the climate change by countermeasures. The Physical Science Basis report I is more technical by nature, and mainly includes outcomes of climatologic measurements and of physical mathematical modelling. Futures research is therefore not expected to have made any significant contribution to this report. However, the topics of the other two Working Groups reports, II and III, are such that futures research could well be expected to have made some contribution. If futures research has contributed to the assessment of the effects of climate change within IPCC, it should also be reflected in the references cited in the IPCC reports. Naturally, the overwhelming majority of the references in the Working Group Reports are topic specific references published in the respective special journals or in the main interdisciplinary journals Science and Nature. However, in the great number of references given in the effect orientated reports II and III, a fairly broad spectrum of journals, books and scientific reports are represented, covering scientific areas from philosophy, social sciences and economics to quite technical topics such as, e.g. electronics. As references related to futures research I have considered articles published in the leading futures research journals: Futures, Foresight, Futures Research Quarterly, Journal of Futures Studies and the French journal Futuribles. I have not considered the journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change, I have not considered as being primarily a futures research-orientated journal. The references to articles published there I have analyzed separately, in order to decide whether they could be considered as belonging to futures research. In addition to the journal-based survey, I noted as futures research references articles written by authors whom I know to be futurists. These relatively rigorous criteria gave the following result of direct futures research contributions to the IPCC climate change effects assessments. Of the about 13,000 references on the assessment of the effects of climate change I found six published in futures research journals, five being in Futures and one in the French language journal Futuribles. In addition there were 12 references to articles in the journal Technological forecasting and social change. Articles from futures research scientists were found under the names of Herman Kahn, D.H. Meadows, Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn, J. Kaivo-Oja, J. Luukkanen and M. Wilenius (see further below). Certainly, there may well be several other futures research authors, whom I have not been able to identify. However, I do not believe I have missed any well-known futures scientists. It was interesting to note that the philosopher Karl Popper, who is also often referred to in futures research books and articles, was cited several times. The five Futures references I found were: (1) an article by A. Wiek, C. Binder and R.W. Scholz about the functions of scenarios in transition processes [5]. This article was cited in Chapter 2 ‘‘Europe’’ of the Working Group III Report on Climate Change ‘‘Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’’, in a paragraph discussing how climate change will affect sustainability. The second Futures reference I found was an article by Geels and Smit entitled ‘‘Failed technology futures: pitfalls and lessons from a historical survey [6], included in Chapter 18 ‘‘Inter-relationships between Adaptation and Mitigation’’. This article was mentioned as a contribution to studies of integrated scenarios for finding socio-economic development pathways, a typical futures research topic. The third and fourth Futures articles referred to were both by K. Kok as first author, divided into two parts with partly different co-authors. The articles were entitled: multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective, Part I. European and Mediterranean scenario development, Part II. Participatory local scenario development [7,8]. These articles were cited in Chapter 2 ‘‘New assessment methods and the characterisation of future conditions’’ of the Working Group II Report, in discussing ‘‘Storylines’’ and their utilization over multiple scales. The fifth Futures reference, an article by S. Funtowicz and J. Ravets ‘‘Science for a Post-Normal Age’’ was in Chapter 12 ‘‘Sustainable Development and Mitigation’’ of the Working Group III Report, in which also the reference to the Futuribles article by J.C. Hourcade and M. Kostopoulou ‘‘Quelles politiques face aux chocs e´nerge´tiques. France, Italie, Japon, RFA: quatre modes de re´sorption des de´se´quilibres.’’ was noted. The Funtowicz and Ravets [9] was cited in discussing the role of scientists in advising governments and facilitating agreement responses to climate change challenges. The article by Hourcade and Kostopoulou [10] was taken up in discussing energy security and unexpected emission increases. Of the 12, nine different, references to articles in the Technological Forecasting and Social Change journal, only four could, according to my view, be taken as more closely related to futures research. Three of these articles, one by Gru¨bler et al. [11], one by Keppo et al. [12], and one by Riahi et al. [13], all dealt with scenarios for socio-economic development. How far scenarios as such are futures research-connected is, of course, a matter of definition. The article by Geels ‘‘Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations: refining the co-evolutionary multi-level perspective’’ [14], could be seen as a futures research one, too, due to its structure. The article was referred to in the same section ‘‘Response capacity and development pathways’’ of Chapter 18 of the Working Group II Report as the Geels and Smit Futures article. Besides the references to H. Kahn and A. Weiner and their 1967 book ‘‘The Year 2000’’, and to the ‘‘Club of Rome’’ report ‘‘Limits to Growth’’ by D.H. Meadows et al., there were very few articles which I could identity as having been written by
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futurist authors. An exception is the article by Glenn and Gordon entitled ‘‘1997 State of the Future’’ [15]. This article is significant in the way that it was taken up in the section ‘‘The definition and purpose of scenarios’’, where the principles of futures prospecting are discussed generally. In this section futurists could have been even more widely represented. The actual section is included in Chapter 2 ‘‘Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context’’ of the Working Group III Report. As an example of possible futures research contributions, I was pleased to be able to note that the study ‘‘Defining alternative national-scale socio-economic and technological futures up to 2100’’ by the futurists Kaivo-oja et al. [16], was taken up in a section where different new global development scenarios were treated. It is correct to argue that looking at single references alone does not necessarily give the whole picture of futures research contributions. In the many references to reports of international organizations, e.g., UN, OECD, IEA, IAEA, IIASA, etc., and to different US department reports, as well as in the references to the IPCC’s own special topic reports, futures research may have been involved. However, I believe these possible additional contributions from futures research most probably would not have essentially changed the overall picture, i.e., that the involvement of futures research in the assessment of effects of climate change seems to have been relatively modest. 3. Possibilities for stronger involvement of futures research in the IPCC studies Could and should futures research have been more extensively involved in the IPCC studies of climate change and its effects? A definite answer to these questions cannot be given on the basis of the tasks for futures research stated by futurists themselves. Relevant views can, however, be found in, for example, the classical ‘‘Aspekte’’ by Ossip K. Flechheim, the philosophical thoughts of Bertrand de Jouvenel, the later purposes for futures research given by Wendel Bell, the core elements of futures research by Rickard Slaughter or Masini´s thoughts in her ‘‘The Future of Futures Studies’’ [17], to mention some frequently quoted authors. In recent decades there has perhaps been a slight shift toward less obligation to take part in a study like the IPCC, due to the increasing ambition of futurists to seek preferable futures and to be directly involved in the planning and policy to reach them. When considering to what degree the climate change future challenge has been taken up in the futures research literature, the conclusion is that the climate change topic has been only sparsely noted by futurists. However, something can be found. In Hughes’ book ‘‘International Futures—Choices in the Face of Uncertainty’’ [18], there is a chapter ‘‘Environmental change’’ in which climate change and the effects of global warming is thoroughly treated. In the report ‘‘The Global 2000—Report to the President of the U.S.’’, Barney also presents projections for the future, in which climate change is accordingly dealt with [19]. Similar futures projections are set up and presented in reports by many international organizations. Indeed, it is unclear how much futures research and single futurists have contributed to the preparation of these reports. More closely related to futures research than the Barney report, could be considered the book by Petersen, entitled ‘‘The Road to 2005’’ [20]. In this book Petersen discusses global warming and the greenhouse effect, but only as a single fourth-order subsection, out of a total of more than 204th order subsections, covering all different future areas. As editors of the report ‘‘The Resourceful Earth/A Response to Global 2000’’ [21], Simon and Kahn have given space for a whole chapter on climate change, written by H.E. Landsberg. In the original book published in 1967 ‘‘The Year 2000’’ by Kahn and Wiener [22], climate change was not taken as a challenge to be more extensively noted. Quite directly related to futures research are some articles by Tonn, especially [2,23]. In the more recent of these articles [2], Tonn looks at the IPCC study from a futures research point of view. He points out the benefit of the IPCC study in increasing public awareness of the future, and in helping to transform our conception of time and concerns about the future. As an indication of the relatively weak interest by futurists in the climate change challenge, one may note the circumstance that Bell in his very often quoted and quite central futures research books ‘‘Foundation of Futures Studies-Volume 1 and Volume 2’’ [24], the theme of global warming is only briefly mentioned in addition to a comment on the increase of the emission of carbon dioxide. I have mentioned above some single observations on how the climate change future challenge is noted in the futures research literature. Of course, the presence of futures research could be seen as being much larger, if one takes into account the background work made by futurists in international organizations and in scientific societies like, e.g., the ‘‘Club of Rome’’. Some futurists may argue that the role of futures research is not to be involved in such fairly technical studies as that of the IPCC, because futures research is working at a more general level of a foresight of the future, and of future planning and forming. Such a view could, in to my opinion, be considered somewhat arrogant. I can well understand that individual famous futurists may directly influence the development of future society by their books, articles and personal contacts with politicians and the media. However, the broad majority of futures researchers are not able to take such an aspiring attitude, in trying to make the best use of their futures research education. Instead, they are forced, as I see it, to try to take an active part in ongoing projects dealing with our common future. Independent of how we see the role of futures research in responding to a challenge like climate change and the assessment of its effects, there is a central common research area, i.e., the study of methodologies relating to predictions of the future. Here futures science could have much to offer to all types of studies in which an attempt is made to look into the future, as in the IPCC survey. As is well known, futures research focuses much attention on a study of the philosophical and methodological aspects of prediction and forecasting generally, as well as on more method-specific analyses of the use of causality, the set-up of scenarios, and the application of judgment methods in studying socio-economic developments, etc.
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Taking into account this special expertise created by futures research, the contribution from futures science and individual futurists to the IPCC assessment studies could have been much greater than it appears to have been the case until now. 4. Discussion In this article I have presented an investigation of futures research contributions to the IPCC assessment studies of the effects of climate change. From this one may get the impression that futurists have a fairly low level of interest and activity regarding the global challenge of climate change. Such an impression does not, however, necessarily represent a correct view of the real situation. I have been informed that there are futurists who have actively displayed their readiness to contribute to the work of the IPCC, but the response to this from the IPCC side has, however, been relatively muted. From my own personal contacts with people working within the IPCC, I also know that many climate change scientists are indeed aware of the need for a broader scientific base, especially in the attempt to foresee the effects of the expected climate change. For example, in the setting-up of scenarios for the emissions of greenhouse gases, which extend to the year 2100, and which directly affect the climate change figures themselves, a good knowledge of the development of the whole of society is needed. Here futures research could and should have much to give. The responsibility for establishing the closer contact needed between futures research and the work of the IPCC lies, as I see it, on both sides. Futurists have a duty to actively seek contacts and to offer contributions within their scientific knowledge, while it is for the IPCC scientists to show an open mind for extended cooperation. References [1] R. Pachauri, The Future in Our Hands, Presentation by the Chairman of IPCC, U.N., NY, 2007, http://www.ipcc.ch/. [2] B. Tonn, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: a global scale transformative initiative, Futures 39 (2007) 614–618. [3] IPCC, Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 2007. [4] IPCC, Climate Change 2007: mitigation of climate change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 2007. [5] A. Wiek, C. Binder, R.W. Scholz, Functions of scenarios in transition processes, Futures 38 (2006) 740–766. [6] F.W. Geels, W.A. Smit, Failed technology futures: pitfalls and lessons from a historical survey, Futures 32 (2000) 867–885. [7] K. Kok, D.S. Rothman, M. Patel, Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective. Part I. European and Mediterranean scenario development, Futures 38 (2006) 261–284. [8] K. Kok, M. Patel, D.S. Rothman, G. Quaranta, Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective. Part II. Participatory local scenario development, Futures 38 (2006) 285–311. [9] S. Funtowicz, J. Ravetz, Science for a post-normal age, Futures 25 (1993) 739–755. [10] J.C. Hourcade, M. Kostopoulou, Quelles politiques face aux chocs e´nerge´tiques. France, Italie, Japon, RFA: quatre modes de re´sorption des de´se´quilibres, Futuribles 189 (1994) 7–27. [11] A. Gru¨bler, B. O’Neill, K. Riahi, V. Chirkov, A. Goujon, P. Kolp, I. Prommer, E. Slentoe, Regional, national and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES, Special Issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2006, 05.023, doi:10.1016/j.techfore. [12] I. Keppo, B. O’Neill, K. Riahi, Probabilistic temperature change projections and energy implications of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, Special Issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2006, 05.024, doi:10.1016/j.techfore. [13] K. Riahi, A. Gru¨bler, N. Nakicenovic, Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization, Special Issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2006, 05.026, doi:10.1016/j.techfore. [14] F.W. Geels, Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations: refining the co-evolutionary multi-level perspective, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 72 (2005) 681–696. [15] J.C. Glenn, T.J. Gordon, 1997 State of the Future: Implications for Actions Today, American Council for the United Nation University, Washington, DC, 1997. [16] J. Kaivo-oja, J. Luukkanen, M. Wilenius, Defining alternative socio-economic and technological futures up to 2100: SRES scenarios for the case of Finland, Boreal Environ. Res. 9 (2004) 109–125. [17] E.B. Masini, The future of futures studies: an European view, Futures 21 (1989) 125–160. [18] B.B. Hughes, International Futures—Choices in the Face of Uncertainty, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, U.S., 1999. [19] G.O. Barney, The Global 2000, Report to the President of the U.S., Entering the 21st Century, vol. I, The Summary Report, Pergamon Press, 1981. [20] J.L. Petersen, The Road to 2015, Profiles of the Future, Waite Group Press, Corte Madera CA, 1994. [21] J.L. Simon, H. Kahn (Eds.), The Resourceful Earth/A Response to Global 2000, Basil Blackwell, 1984. [22] H. Kahn, A.J. Wiener, The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years, The Macmillan Company, Collier-Macmillan Limited, London, 1967. [23] B. Tonn, An equity-first, risk based framework for managing global climate change, Global Environ. Change 13 (2003) 295–306. [24] W. Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies, Human Science for a New Era, Volume I and Volume II, Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick U.S.A., London U.K., 2000.
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Futures journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/futures
Futures research and the IPCC assessment study on the effects of climate change Go¨ran Nordlund * Haahkatie 12 A 16, FIN-00200 Helsinki, Finland
A R T I C L E I N F O
A B S T R A C T
Available online 22 July 2008
Mainly based on a survey of the occurrence of futures research-related references in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, I have investigated the contribution of futures research to the IPCC assessments of the effects of climate change. The assumption I have made here is that, if futures research has made a contribution to the IPCC assessment work, it should also be reflected in the references quoted or cited. I have also briefly commented on the activities by the futurists themselves regarding the future challenge of climate change. As a complement to the contribution survey, I ask and discuss to what degree futures research could and should be participating in a study like that of the IPCC. The survey of the futures research contributions showed that, up to now, futures research has been only modestly represented in the IPCC climate change effect assessment studies. The contribution both could and should have been more extensive than it has been up to the present, a view to which I return in the final discussion. ß 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction During recent decades, climate change has been one of the most discussed and studied future challenges. The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has formed the central forum in coordinating and summing up the studies of climate change both as an atmospheric phenomena, and as relating to the assessments of the effects of climate change on the natural environment and human life [1,2]. All aspects of human life will at least to some degree be affected by the expected climate change, for which reason futures research cannot overlook climate change and its effects as an irrelevant topic. To what extent could and should futures research then be involved in the studies of climate change, and in particular in the foresight of its effects, is therefore a justified question. Before discussing the need for and nature of possible contributions by futures research in climate change effect assessment studies, it is interesting to look at how much futures research in fact has already been involved in the climate change studies within the IPCC work. For this purpose I have checked all the approx.13,000 references of the effects related Working Group II and III Reports [3,4] of the recent Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC, seeking such references that could be related to futures research, either by their place of publication, i.e. the name of the research journal, or by the name of the author. The performance and the results of this survey are presented in Chapter 2. In Chapter 3, I take up the question of how far futures research could and should be contributing to a study like IPCC. Finally, in Chapter 4 I discuss the responsibilities for establishing extended co-operation between futures research and the IPCC. My opinions I base on my professional knowledge of climate change research, and on my study of the futures research literature.
* Tel.: +358 50 4645684. E-mail address: [email protected].fi. 0016-3287/$ – see front matter ß 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2008.07.022
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G. Nordlund / Futures 40 (2008) 873–876
2. References to futures research in the IPCC reports The IPCC work is summarized within three main reports, one for each of the three Working Groups: I. The Physical Science Basis, II. Impacts, Adaptation And Vulnerability and III. Mitigation of Climate Change.
In seeking for references related to futures research I have, as already mentioned, focused on the reports II and III, which deal with the effects of climate change and the possibilities of delaying and minimizing the climate change by countermeasures. The Physical Science Basis report I is more technical by nature, and mainly includes outcomes of climatologic measurements and of physical mathematical modelling. Futures research is therefore not expected to have made any significant contribution to this report. However, the topics of the other two Working Groups reports, II and III, are such that futures research could well be expected to have made some contribution. If futures research has contributed to the assessment of the effects of climate change within IPCC, it should also be reflected in the references cited in the IPCC reports. Naturally, the overwhelming majority of the references in the Working Group Reports are topic specific references published in the respective special journals or in the main interdisciplinary journals Science and Nature. However, in the great number of references given in the effect orientated reports II and III, a fairly broad spectrum of journals, books and scientific reports are represented, covering scientific areas from philosophy, social sciences and economics to quite technical topics such as, e.g. electronics. As references related to futures research I have considered articles published in the leading futures research journals: Futures, Foresight, Futures Research Quarterly, Journal of Futures Studies and the French journal Futuribles. I have not considered the journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change, I have not considered as being primarily a futures research-orientated journal. The references to articles published there I have analyzed separately, in order to decide whether they could be considered as belonging to futures research. In addition to the journal-based survey, I noted as futures research references articles written by authors whom I know to be futurists. These relatively rigorous criteria gave the following result of direct futures research contributions to the IPCC climate change effects assessments. Of the about 13,000 references on the assessment of the effects of climate change I found six published in futures research journals, five being in Futures and one in the French language journal Futuribles. In addition there were 12 references to articles in the journal Technological forecasting and social change. Articles from futures research scientists were found under the names of Herman Kahn, D.H. Meadows, Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn, J. Kaivo-Oja, J. Luukkanen and M. Wilenius (see further below). Certainly, there may well be several other futures research authors, whom I have not been able to identify. However, I do not believe I have missed any well-known futures scientists. It was interesting to note that the philosopher Karl Popper, who is also often referred to in futures research books and articles, was cited several times. The five Futures references I found were: (1) an article by A. Wiek, C. Binder and R.W. Scholz about the functions of scenarios in transition processes [5]. This article was cited in Chapter 2 ‘‘Europe’’ of the Working Group III Report on Climate Change ‘‘Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’’, in a paragraph discussing how climate change will affect sustainability. The second Futures reference I found was an article by Geels and Smit entitled ‘‘Failed technology futures: pitfalls and lessons from a historical survey [6], included in Chapter 18 ‘‘Inter-relationships between Adaptation and Mitigation’’. This article was mentioned as a contribution to studies of integrated scenarios for finding socio-economic development pathways, a typical futures research topic. The third and fourth Futures articles referred to were both by K. Kok as first author, divided into two parts with partly different co-authors. The articles were entitled: multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective, Part I. European and Mediterranean scenario development, Part II. Participatory local scenario development [7,8]. These articles were cited in Chapter 2 ‘‘New assessment methods and the characterisation of future conditions’’ of the Working Group II Report, in discussing ‘‘Storylines’’ and their utilization over multiple scales. The fifth Futures reference, an article by S. Funtowicz and J. Ravets ‘‘Science for a Post-Normal Age’’ was in Chapter 12 ‘‘Sustainable Development and Mitigation’’ of the Working Group III Report, in which also the reference to the Futuribles article by J.C. Hourcade and M. Kostopoulou ‘‘Quelles politiques face aux chocs e´nerge´tiques. France, Italie, Japon, RFA: quatre modes de re´sorption des de´se´quilibres.’’ was noted. The Funtowicz and Ravets [9] was cited in discussing the role of scientists in advising governments and facilitating agreement responses to climate change challenges. The article by Hourcade and Kostopoulou [10] was taken up in discussing energy security and unexpected emission increases. Of the 12, nine different, references to articles in the Technological Forecasting and Social Change journal, only four could, according to my view, be taken as more closely related to futures research. Three of these articles, one by Gru¨bler et al. [11], one by Keppo et al. [12], and one by Riahi et al. [13], all dealt with scenarios for socio-economic development. How far scenarios as such are futures research-connected is, of course, a matter of definition. The article by Geels ‘‘Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations: refining the co-evolutionary multi-level perspective’’ [14], could be seen as a futures research one, too, due to its structure. The article was referred to in the same section ‘‘Response capacity and development pathways’’ of Chapter 18 of the Working Group II Report as the Geels and Smit Futures article. Besides the references to H. Kahn and A. Weiner and their 1967 book ‘‘The Year 2000’’, and to the ‘‘Club of Rome’’ report ‘‘Limits to Growth’’ by D.H. Meadows et al., there were very few articles which I could identity as having been written by
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futurist authors. An exception is the article by Glenn and Gordon entitled ‘‘1997 State of the Future’’ [15]. This article is significant in the way that it was taken up in the section ‘‘The definition and purpose of scenarios’’, where the principles of futures prospecting are discussed generally. In this section futurists could have been even more widely represented. The actual section is included in Chapter 2 ‘‘Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context’’ of the Working Group III Report. As an example of possible futures research contributions, I was pleased to be able to note that the study ‘‘Defining alternative national-scale socio-economic and technological futures up to 2100’’ by the futurists Kaivo-oja et al. [16], was taken up in a section where different new global development scenarios were treated. It is correct to argue that looking at single references alone does not necessarily give the whole picture of futures research contributions. In the many references to reports of international organizations, e.g., UN, OECD, IEA, IAEA, IIASA, etc., and to different US department reports, as well as in the references to the IPCC’s own special topic reports, futures research may have been involved. However, I believe these possible additional contributions from futures research most probably would not have essentially changed the overall picture, i.e., that the involvement of futures research in the assessment of effects of climate change seems to have been relatively modest. 3. Possibilities for stronger involvement of futures research in the IPCC studies Could and should futures research have been more extensively involved in the IPCC studies of climate change and its effects? A definite answer to these questions cannot be given on the basis of the tasks for futures research stated by futurists themselves. Relevant views can, however, be found in, for example, the classical ‘‘Aspekte’’ by Ossip K. Flechheim, the philosophical thoughts of Bertrand de Jouvenel, the later purposes for futures research given by Wendel Bell, the core elements of futures research by Rickard Slaughter or Masini´s thoughts in her ‘‘The Future of Futures Studies’’ [17], to mention some frequently quoted authors. In recent decades there has perhaps been a slight shift toward less obligation to take part in a study like the IPCC, due to the increasing ambition of futurists to seek preferable futures and to be directly involved in the planning and policy to reach them. When considering to what degree the climate change future challenge has been taken up in the futures research literature, the conclusion is that the climate change topic has been only sparsely noted by futurists. However, something can be found. In Hughes’ book ‘‘International Futures—Choices in the Face of Uncertainty’’ [18], there is a chapter ‘‘Environmental change’’ in which climate change and the effects of global warming is thoroughly treated. In the report ‘‘The Global 2000—Report to the President of the U.S.’’, Barney also presents projections for the future, in which climate change is accordingly dealt with [19]. Similar futures projections are set up and presented in reports by many international organizations. Indeed, it is unclear how much futures research and single futurists have contributed to the preparation of these reports. More closely related to futures research than the Barney report, could be considered the book by Petersen, entitled ‘‘The Road to 2005’’ [20]. In this book Petersen discusses global warming and the greenhouse effect, but only as a single fourth-order subsection, out of a total of more than 204th order subsections, covering all different future areas. As editors of the report ‘‘The Resourceful Earth/A Response to Global 2000’’ [21], Simon and Kahn have given space for a whole chapter on climate change, written by H.E. Landsberg. In the original book published in 1967 ‘‘The Year 2000’’ by Kahn and Wiener [22], climate change was not taken as a challenge to be more extensively noted. Quite directly related to futures research are some articles by Tonn, especially [2,23]. In the more recent of these articles [2], Tonn looks at the IPCC study from a futures research point of view. He points out the benefit of the IPCC study in increasing public awareness of the future, and in helping to transform our conception of time and concerns about the future. As an indication of the relatively weak interest by futurists in the climate change challenge, one may note the circumstance that Bell in his very often quoted and quite central futures research books ‘‘Foundation of Futures Studies-Volume 1 and Volume 2’’ [24], the theme of global warming is only briefly mentioned in addition to a comment on the increase of the emission of carbon dioxide. I have mentioned above some single observations on how the climate change future challenge is noted in the futures research literature. Of course, the presence of futures research could be seen as being much larger, if one takes into account the background work made by futurists in international organizations and in scientific societies like, e.g., the ‘‘Club of Rome’’. Some futurists may argue that the role of futures research is not to be involved in such fairly technical studies as that of the IPCC, because futures research is working at a more general level of a foresight of the future, and of future planning and forming. Such a view could, in to my opinion, be considered somewhat arrogant. I can well understand that individual famous futurists may directly influence the development of future society by their books, articles and personal contacts with politicians and the media. However, the broad majority of futures researchers are not able to take such an aspiring attitude, in trying to make the best use of their futures research education. Instead, they are forced, as I see it, to try to take an active part in ongoing projects dealing with our common future. Independent of how we see the role of futures research in responding to a challenge like climate change and the assessment of its effects, there is a central common research area, i.e., the study of methodologies relating to predictions of the future. Here futures science could have much to offer to all types of studies in which an attempt is made to look into the future, as in the IPCC survey. As is well known, futures research focuses much attention on a study of the philosophical and methodological aspects of prediction and forecasting generally, as well as on more method-specific analyses of the use of causality, the set-up of scenarios, and the application of judgment methods in studying socio-economic developments, etc.
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Taking into account this special expertise created by futures research, the contribution from futures science and individual futurists to the IPCC assessment studies could have been much greater than it appears to have been the case until now. 4. Discussion In this article I have presented an investigation of futures research contributions to the IPCC assessment studies of the effects of climate change. From this one may get the impression that futurists have a fairly low level of interest and activity regarding the global challenge of climate change. Such an impression does not, however, necessarily represent a correct view of the real situation. I have been informed that there are futurists who have actively displayed their readiness to contribute to the work of the IPCC, but the response to this from the IPCC side has, however, been relatively muted. From my own personal contacts with people working within the IPCC, I also know that many climate change scientists are indeed aware of the need for a broader scientific base, especially in the attempt to foresee the effects of the expected climate change. For example, in the setting-up of scenarios for the emissions of greenhouse gases, which extend to the year 2100, and which directly affect the climate change figures themselves, a good knowledge of the development of the whole of society is needed. Here futures research could and should have much to give. The responsibility for establishing the closer contact needed between futures research and the work of the IPCC lies, as I see it, on both sides. Futurists have a duty to actively seek contacts and to offer contributions within their scientific knowledge, while it is for the IPCC scientists to show an open mind for extended cooperation. References [1] R. Pachauri, The Future in Our Hands, Presentation by the Chairman of IPCC, U.N., NY, 2007, http://www.ipcc.ch/. [2] B. Tonn, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: a global scale transformative initiative, Futures 39 (2007) 614–618. [3] IPCC, Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 2007. [4] IPCC, Climate Change 2007: mitigation of climate change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 2007. [5] A. Wiek, C. Binder, R.W. Scholz, Functions of scenarios in transition processes, Futures 38 (2006) 740–766. [6] F.W. Geels, W.A. Smit, Failed technology futures: pitfalls and lessons from a historical survey, Futures 32 (2000) 867–885. [7] K. Kok, D.S. Rothman, M. Patel, Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective. Part I. European and Mediterranean scenario development, Futures 38 (2006) 261–284. [8] K. Kok, M. Patel, D.S. Rothman, G. Quaranta, Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective. Part II. Participatory local scenario development, Futures 38 (2006) 285–311. [9] S. Funtowicz, J. Ravetz, Science for a post-normal age, Futures 25 (1993) 739–755. [10] J.C. Hourcade, M. Kostopoulou, Quelles politiques face aux chocs e´nerge´tiques. France, Italie, Japon, RFA: quatre modes de re´sorption des de´se´quilibres, Futuribles 189 (1994) 7–27. [11] A. Gru¨bler, B. O’Neill, K. Riahi, V. Chirkov, A. Goujon, P. Kolp, I. Prommer, E. Slentoe, Regional, national and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES, Special Issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2006, 05.023, doi:10.1016/j.techfore. [12] I. Keppo, B. O’Neill, K. Riahi, Probabilistic temperature change projections and energy implications of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, Special Issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2006, 05.024, doi:10.1016/j.techfore. [13] K. Riahi, A. Gru¨bler, N. Nakicenovic, Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization, Special Issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2006, 05.026, doi:10.1016/j.techfore. [14] F.W. Geels, Processes and patterns in transitions and system innovations: refining the co-evolutionary multi-level perspective, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 72 (2005) 681–696. [15] J.C. Glenn, T.J. Gordon, 1997 State of the Future: Implications for Actions Today, American Council for the United Nation University, Washington, DC, 1997. [16] J. Kaivo-oja, J. Luukkanen, M. Wilenius, Defining alternative socio-economic and technological futures up to 2100: SRES scenarios for the case of Finland, Boreal Environ. Res. 9 (2004) 109–125. [17] E.B. Masini, The future of futures studies: an European view, Futures 21 (1989) 125–160. [18] B.B. Hughes, International Futures—Choices in the Face of Uncertainty, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, U.S., 1999. [19] G.O. Barney, The Global 2000, Report to the President of the U.S., Entering the 21st Century, vol. I, The Summary Report, Pergamon Press, 1981. [20] J.L. Petersen, The Road to 2015, Profiles of the Future, Waite Group Press, Corte Madera CA, 1994. [21] J.L. Simon, H. Kahn (Eds.), The Resourceful Earth/A Response to Global 2000, Basil Blackwell, 1984. [22] H. Kahn, A.J. Wiener, The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years, The Macmillan Company, Collier-Macmillan Limited, London, 1967. [23] B. Tonn, An equity-first, risk based framework for managing global climate change, Global Environ. Change 13 (2003) 295–306. [24] W. Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies, Human Science for a New Era, Volume I and Volume II, Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick U.S.A., London U.K., 2000.