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Futures research in India problems and policies
Report
451
REPORT FUTURES RESEARCH Problems and policies
IN INDIA
P. K. Rohatgi, K. Rohatgi, and B. Bowonder India is one of the few developing countries to have a significant degree of involvement in futures research. Institutionally, this interest has been recognised in the Presidential order of 1971 which formally allotted Futurology to the Department of Science and Technology, and by the establishment within that Department, of a National Council of Science and Technology panel on futurology in 1973. These developments have been paralleled, in other government departments, in industry and commerce, educational institutes, and private research organisations, by the establishment of more or less formal research studies (see Appendix). Yet despite the interest in the broad field of future studies, exceptional among Third World countries, India shares with those countries certain common problems, notably in relation to technological forecasting. Problems The most obvious deficiencies are in the appropriate resources for technological forecasting: there is a lack of reliable statistics and information, and of trained manpower-particularly of experts whose training is appropriate to the situation in developing countries. There are also important structural problems which inhibit developments in forecasting; not only are Third World national economies characterised by shortages, lack of competition, and a The authors are with the Technology Forecasting and Research Management Group at the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India. Professor P. K. Rohatgi is Director, CSIR Complex, Industrial Estate, Pappanamcode, Trivandrum~95019, India.
FUTURES
October 1877
far from perfect market, but they are also subject to the strong influence of intervention by multinational companies. Foreign-owned companies tend to subvert the establishment of local forecasting in two ways. First, multinational companies which are represented by a local operation in the host country conduct their long-range planning exercises elsewhere, so that the results are not necessarily relevant, or beneficial, to the local economy, Second, many of the industrial concerns of the developing countries enter into collaboration agreements with foreign companies in order to achieve a quick transfer of technology. By the terms of such agreements, future development of the product line is often also transferred from the foreign company, so the local company does not have its own long-range planning programmes. In national planning, the lack of commitment to technological forecasting is partly a function of the lack of financial resources, but government policies in the developing countries also appear to fail to appreciate the importance of actively directing science and technology policy. Only recently has a more purposeful approach been manifested, with efforts to direct research towards areas of need. Finally, underlying these resource, structure, and policy problems, there is a lack of clear understanding in the Third World countries of the techniques and of the utility of technological forecasting. This general deficiency is particulatly marked in government: the usefulness of technological forecasting is
452
Report
not recognised, and there are few committed, coordinated attempts to fully exploit the potential of the technique. Policies A lack of faith, in the overall social and economic environment, in the potential of forecasting and futures research is clearly a hindrance to the development of future studies; on the other hand, some initial work in the field is necessary to stimulate a change in underlying attitudes. The momentum which future studies has achieved in India has not yet resulted in the endemic problems of a developing country being overcome. However, work in certain problem areas may well stimulate work in others. Obviously the establishment of the panel on futurology was a major step. Its terms of reference are: l
l
l
To review and report on technology assessment and decision making processes, and their applications in India ; To prepare monographs/reports in applied fields of futures research, presenting likely future perspectives in selected areas to serve as background papers for government policy makers ; and To encourage and stimulate future consciousness or concern for the future in the universities and other institutes of further education in India, and to carry out research on specific projects in the field of futurology.
Certain subjects have been chosen for intensive studies, with two perspectives : the immediate future in 1985, and the likely future in 2000. Those subjects are transport and education, -energy, communications, urban and rural problems, management, food, and housing. Several papers on these areas have already been prepared. Some Government Commissionsthe Atomic Energy Commission, the Space Commission, the National Com-
mission on Agriculture, the Electronics Commission, and, most importantly, the Planning Commission-have initiated short-, medium-, and long-range studies; so too have Indian Railways, for incorporation in the Railway Plan. In the educational field, the Indian Institutes of Technology, at Kharagpur, Delhi, Madras, Kanpur, and Bombay, have all embarked on various forecasting studies; the Indian Institute at Bangalore, started a of Science, technology forecasting and research management group in 1972, as an educational and research centre. This group has published several papers based upon their research into food, energy, health services and other areas. Of the research organisations involved in future studies, perhaps the most irnportant is the Operations Research Group, in Baroda. They have a staff of about 400, involved mainly in the group’s activity as a consulting agency. The Centre for Developing Societies, in New Delhi, has been involved in extensive social forecasting studies; and the Ford Foundation, based in Delhi, has sponsored a series of studies on “Second India” or “India in the year 2000”. some large Indian comFinally, panies and some trade associations and institutes are now active in long-range notably for and long-term studies, corporate planning. The future of forecasting In view of the increasing activity in the field-and the synergistic effect of work in the different areas-it would be surprising if futures studies did not develop in the coming years. As certain of the traditional Third World problem areas are tackled, so the remaining difficulties will come more sharply into focus. So, by the year 2000, we may expect developments in all the relevant fields. Forecasting will be formally recognised as an academic discipline, and will be practised in long-range planning cells in
FUTURES
October 1977
Report
most of the Government independent casting
groups,
statistical through cities
data
large Indian companies. departments will have central technology foreusing
a central and
the
a common
source, State
and
institute.
national
coordinated The
Governments
major will
Appendix Establishments with long-range planning, technological forecasting, or future studies programmes Dekartment of Science and Technologp, JVCST, Technology Bhawan, New Delhi, India Some 54 papers have so far been prepared on the future status of the areas chosen for intensive study; they are listed in their publication “Background paper and special notes for discussion”, Volumes 1 and 2. Planning Commission This Government Commission has a perspective planning cell for long-range planning; a summary of their work appears in the Five Year Plan. Atomic Energy Commission and Space Commission Both organisations do their own long-range planning-but their work has limited publicity. Electronics Commission Analysis reports are published by the Commission which describe their short- and medium-range forecasting studies. For example, a report was published on “Planning for the semiconductor industry in India”. Institution of Electrical and Electronic Engineers The theme of the Institution’s 1974 annual conference was technology forecasting for 1980. The proceedings have been published. Indian Railways A perspective planning division was established in 1974, to look at the railway towards, and beyond, 1985.
also have their own groups. And, finally, in the near future, other developing countries may well have panels like the existing Indian futurology panel; if so, then clearly strong links and information exchanges will be of great mutual benefit. Indian Institutes of Technology, at Kharagpur, Delhi, Madras, Kanpur, and Bombay These Institutes all have some form of educational programme on either futurology and forecasting or, in the case of the Kharagpur Institute, on technology forecasting and long-range planning. The Bombay Institute has a group and six subgroups working on various aspects of the future; they held their first workshop on futurology in November 1976, an event in which all the other Institutes also participated. Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore The technology forecasting and research management group conducts courses, seminars, and research on various aspects of future technologies. Apart from its work on food, energy, and health services, the group has also studied family planning, metals and
UNIVERSITY OF BRADFORD 4 - 9 DECEMBER 1977 FORECASTING FOR TECHNOLOGICAL PLANNING A practical course presenting concepts and techniques of strategic forecasting with experienced speakers from: Chloride, Ford of Europe Inc., Unilevet Programmes Analysis Unit, Pilkington and Shell International. also in 1978 Financial Control of R & D Managing Technological Innovation Introduction to TF Techniques Social Forecasting for BusinessPlanning Full particulars:
National Commission on Agriculture Fourteen reports have been published with projections for the production of various agricultural commodities.
FUTURES
October 1917
453
Brian Twiss, Heaton Mount, Keighley Road, Bradford 9. Tel. Bradford 491773
454
Report
minerals, the aluminium steel industry.
industry,
and the
Centrefor Developing Societies, New Delhi The Centre is conducting studies on future social systems and on the effect of future technologies on social systems. Reports on aspects of their work have been published; the Centre also publishes a journal, called
Alternatives. Administrative Sta$College, Hyderabad Studies on the projection of growth rates in India up to the year 2000 are being conducted at the College. They have completed a study on “Goals and objectives in India”, by Aqueil Ahmed.
Ford Foundation, Delhi The Foundation’s sponsored studies deal comprehensively with the future demand and supply of certain commodities, by the year 2000.
Urban Systems Centre at NITIE,
Bombay
The urban research and training programmes at the Centre include a futures component. The Centre is at present working on the minimising of environmental impacts in future urban systems.
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd, New Delhi The company’s planning group on new energy products is perhaps the strongest industrial long-range corporate planning group in India. They conducted a Delphi on future energy systems, probably the first corporate Delphi in India.
Hindustan Machine Tools Ltd, Bangalore This company has conducted two Delphi studies, as well as a major forecasting effort on the machine tool industry towards the year 2000; they are also planning a technology forecasting group for their headquarters.
Tata Groub of comfianies The Tata Management Training Centre at Poona includes futures research and longrange planning in its curriculum. Tata Chemicals has undertaken studies on future energy systems and is funding other technological forecasting studies.
Bharat Aluminium Company A report on the aluminium industry in India up to the year 2000 has been submitted to the Ministry of Mines and Steel by the company. Steel Authority of India The Authority has prepared a major report on steel in India in the year 2000, and is regularly involved in long-range planning for the steel industry. Corrigendum
In the last issue of Futures (August 1977) we omitted to mention that the article by Jib Fowles (“The problem of values in futures research”, pages 303-314) was based on a chapter from the Handbook of Futures Research (Westport, Connecticut, Greenwood Press, forthcoming). We apologise to the author and to Greenwood Press, who hold the original copyright.
FUTURES
October 1077
451
REPORT FUTURES RESEARCH Problems and policies
IN INDIA
P. K. Rohatgi, K. Rohatgi, and B. Bowonder India is one of the few developing countries to have a significant degree of involvement in futures research. Institutionally, this interest has been recognised in the Presidential order of 1971 which formally allotted Futurology to the Department of Science and Technology, and by the establishment within that Department, of a National Council of Science and Technology panel on futurology in 1973. These developments have been paralleled, in other government departments, in industry and commerce, educational institutes, and private research organisations, by the establishment of more or less formal research studies (see Appendix). Yet despite the interest in the broad field of future studies, exceptional among Third World countries, India shares with those countries certain common problems, notably in relation to technological forecasting. Problems The most obvious deficiencies are in the appropriate resources for technological forecasting: there is a lack of reliable statistics and information, and of trained manpower-particularly of experts whose training is appropriate to the situation in developing countries. There are also important structural problems which inhibit developments in forecasting; not only are Third World national economies characterised by shortages, lack of competition, and a The authors are with the Technology Forecasting and Research Management Group at the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India. Professor P. K. Rohatgi is Director, CSIR Complex, Industrial Estate, Pappanamcode, Trivandrum~95019, India.
FUTURES
October 1877
far from perfect market, but they are also subject to the strong influence of intervention by multinational companies. Foreign-owned companies tend to subvert the establishment of local forecasting in two ways. First, multinational companies which are represented by a local operation in the host country conduct their long-range planning exercises elsewhere, so that the results are not necessarily relevant, or beneficial, to the local economy, Second, many of the industrial concerns of the developing countries enter into collaboration agreements with foreign companies in order to achieve a quick transfer of technology. By the terms of such agreements, future development of the product line is often also transferred from the foreign company, so the local company does not have its own long-range planning programmes. In national planning, the lack of commitment to technological forecasting is partly a function of the lack of financial resources, but government policies in the developing countries also appear to fail to appreciate the importance of actively directing science and technology policy. Only recently has a more purposeful approach been manifested, with efforts to direct research towards areas of need. Finally, underlying these resource, structure, and policy problems, there is a lack of clear understanding in the Third World countries of the techniques and of the utility of technological forecasting. This general deficiency is particulatly marked in government: the usefulness of technological forecasting is
452
Report
not recognised, and there are few committed, coordinated attempts to fully exploit the potential of the technique. Policies A lack of faith, in the overall social and economic environment, in the potential of forecasting and futures research is clearly a hindrance to the development of future studies; on the other hand, some initial work in the field is necessary to stimulate a change in underlying attitudes. The momentum which future studies has achieved in India has not yet resulted in the endemic problems of a developing country being overcome. However, work in certain problem areas may well stimulate work in others. Obviously the establishment of the panel on futurology was a major step. Its terms of reference are: l
l
l
To review and report on technology assessment and decision making processes, and their applications in India ; To prepare monographs/reports in applied fields of futures research, presenting likely future perspectives in selected areas to serve as background papers for government policy makers ; and To encourage and stimulate future consciousness or concern for the future in the universities and other institutes of further education in India, and to carry out research on specific projects in the field of futurology.
Certain subjects have been chosen for intensive studies, with two perspectives : the immediate future in 1985, and the likely future in 2000. Those subjects are transport and education, -energy, communications, urban and rural problems, management, food, and housing. Several papers on these areas have already been prepared. Some Government Commissionsthe Atomic Energy Commission, the Space Commission, the National Com-
mission on Agriculture, the Electronics Commission, and, most importantly, the Planning Commission-have initiated short-, medium-, and long-range studies; so too have Indian Railways, for incorporation in the Railway Plan. In the educational field, the Indian Institutes of Technology, at Kharagpur, Delhi, Madras, Kanpur, and Bombay, have all embarked on various forecasting studies; the Indian Institute at Bangalore, started a of Science, technology forecasting and research management group in 1972, as an educational and research centre. This group has published several papers based upon their research into food, energy, health services and other areas. Of the research organisations involved in future studies, perhaps the most irnportant is the Operations Research Group, in Baroda. They have a staff of about 400, involved mainly in the group’s activity as a consulting agency. The Centre for Developing Societies, in New Delhi, has been involved in extensive social forecasting studies; and the Ford Foundation, based in Delhi, has sponsored a series of studies on “Second India” or “India in the year 2000”. some large Indian comFinally, panies and some trade associations and institutes are now active in long-range notably for and long-term studies, corporate planning. The future of forecasting In view of the increasing activity in the field-and the synergistic effect of work in the different areas-it would be surprising if futures studies did not develop in the coming years. As certain of the traditional Third World problem areas are tackled, so the remaining difficulties will come more sharply into focus. So, by the year 2000, we may expect developments in all the relevant fields. Forecasting will be formally recognised as an academic discipline, and will be practised in long-range planning cells in
FUTURES
October 1977
Report
most of the Government independent casting
groups,
statistical through cities
data
large Indian companies. departments will have central technology foreusing
a central and
the
a common
source, State
and
institute.
national
coordinated The
Governments
major will
Appendix Establishments with long-range planning, technological forecasting, or future studies programmes Dekartment of Science and Technologp, JVCST, Technology Bhawan, New Delhi, India Some 54 papers have so far been prepared on the future status of the areas chosen for intensive study; they are listed in their publication “Background paper and special notes for discussion”, Volumes 1 and 2. Planning Commission This Government Commission has a perspective planning cell for long-range planning; a summary of their work appears in the Five Year Plan. Atomic Energy Commission and Space Commission Both organisations do their own long-range planning-but their work has limited publicity. Electronics Commission Analysis reports are published by the Commission which describe their short- and medium-range forecasting studies. For example, a report was published on “Planning for the semiconductor industry in India”. Institution of Electrical and Electronic Engineers The theme of the Institution’s 1974 annual conference was technology forecasting for 1980. The proceedings have been published. Indian Railways A perspective planning division was established in 1974, to look at the railway towards, and beyond, 1985.
also have their own groups. And, finally, in the near future, other developing countries may well have panels like the existing Indian futurology panel; if so, then clearly strong links and information exchanges will be of great mutual benefit. Indian Institutes of Technology, at Kharagpur, Delhi, Madras, Kanpur, and Bombay These Institutes all have some form of educational programme on either futurology and forecasting or, in the case of the Kharagpur Institute, on technology forecasting and long-range planning. The Bombay Institute has a group and six subgroups working on various aspects of the future; they held their first workshop on futurology in November 1976, an event in which all the other Institutes also participated. Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore The technology forecasting and research management group conducts courses, seminars, and research on various aspects of future technologies. Apart from its work on food, energy, and health services, the group has also studied family planning, metals and
UNIVERSITY OF BRADFORD 4 - 9 DECEMBER 1977 FORECASTING FOR TECHNOLOGICAL PLANNING A practical course presenting concepts and techniques of strategic forecasting with experienced speakers from: Chloride, Ford of Europe Inc., Unilevet Programmes Analysis Unit, Pilkington and Shell International. also in 1978 Financial Control of R & D Managing Technological Innovation Introduction to TF Techniques Social Forecasting for BusinessPlanning Full particulars:
National Commission on Agriculture Fourteen reports have been published with projections for the production of various agricultural commodities.
FUTURES
October 1917
453
Brian Twiss, Heaton Mount, Keighley Road, Bradford 9. Tel. Bradford 491773
454
Report
minerals, the aluminium steel industry.
industry,
and the
Centrefor Developing Societies, New Delhi The Centre is conducting studies on future social systems and on the effect of future technologies on social systems. Reports on aspects of their work have been published; the Centre also publishes a journal, called
Alternatives. Administrative Sta$College, Hyderabad Studies on the projection of growth rates in India up to the year 2000 are being conducted at the College. They have completed a study on “Goals and objectives in India”, by Aqueil Ahmed.
Ford Foundation, Delhi The Foundation’s sponsored studies deal comprehensively with the future demand and supply of certain commodities, by the year 2000.
Urban Systems Centre at NITIE,
Bombay
The urban research and training programmes at the Centre include a futures component. The Centre is at present working on the minimising of environmental impacts in future urban systems.
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd, New Delhi The company’s planning group on new energy products is perhaps the strongest industrial long-range corporate planning group in India. They conducted a Delphi on future energy systems, probably the first corporate Delphi in India.
Hindustan Machine Tools Ltd, Bangalore This company has conducted two Delphi studies, as well as a major forecasting effort on the machine tool industry towards the year 2000; they are also planning a technology forecasting group for their headquarters.
Tata Groub of comfianies The Tata Management Training Centre at Poona includes futures research and longrange planning in its curriculum. Tata Chemicals has undertaken studies on future energy systems and is funding other technological forecasting studies.
Bharat Aluminium Company A report on the aluminium industry in India up to the year 2000 has been submitted to the Ministry of Mines and Steel by the company. Steel Authority of India The Authority has prepared a major report on steel in India in the year 2000, and is regularly involved in long-range planning for the steel industry. Corrigendum
In the last issue of Futures (August 1977) we omitted to mention that the article by Jib Fowles (“The problem of values in futures research”, pages 303-314) was based on a chapter from the Handbook of Futures Research (Westport, Connecticut, Greenwood Press, forthcoming). We apologise to the author and to Greenwood Press, who hold the original copyright.
FUTURES
October 1077