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General systems thinking
but requires much more skill on the part of the forecaster. A still more general method for time series is Kalman filters, surveyed by R.K. Mehra. This is a Bayesian approach where the process is represented by an input, an internal state, and an output, these being normal distributions connected bq Markov processes. V. Corbo and R.S. Pindycle report on an econometric study of tclephonc demand. J.M. Blin, GA. Stohr and B. Bagamery argue that the industry-w&ie forccasts of the best method is a model based on Leoritief input-outpu; theory. 0. Helmer g:Jes over long-range forecasts and the method of cross-impacts in which a matrix x is written with xii being impact of occurrence of event i on probability of event j. E. Parzen discusses a method of ‘whitening filters’ by which the choice of an autoregressive moving average model can be made by computer. B.N. Steece and S.D. Wood give a method of forecasting aggregate demand for many products b! developing an accurate model of total demand and simpler mod& of the fraction of demand going to each item. K.O. Cogger shows that minimum absolute deGation (for instance min C 1yi - UXi - b j as oppos;sd to least squares min 1 ( _v!- q - O)-’ ) can be reasonably performed by linear programming, and applied to time &c>. J.E. Reinmuth and M.D. Geurts propose d method of weighting several forwasts so as to combine them into a single forecast.
T. Downing Bowler, General Systems Thinking. New kork: Yorth-Holland, 1981. This book is an exposition of the present scientific view of the universe from thtt viewpoint that the idea of a system is the unifying concept. In turn, it trhs up
Book reviews
306
without mathematics, entropy, the structure of atoms and molecules, organic chemistry, the physical universe as a whole, organisms in terms of homeostasis, control, and subsystems, the earth as an ecosystem, learning and personality, subjective experience and consciousness, integration of personality, meaning, small social groups, civilizations, ontology. The tone is philosophical. Some persistent themes are equilibrium, the control of a system over its subsystems, the danger of having a subsystem take over this control, the relationship of subjective experience and an objective system, and M. Melko’s theories of human systems. Melko focuses on the processes of differentiation and integration. He considers the basic motivation of small group formation to be problem solution. A leader emerges who is able to communicate his own view of the problem. The members of the system specialize more and more. Authority is exercised by the members perceiving the group as tied to their identity, and to a lesser degree by rewards rtnd sanctions. Common standards develop. Melko’s and Carl Quigley’s
general systems theory
theories of civilizations are also described.
F. W. Roush Mathematical Social Sciences A fabama State University Montgomery, Alabama 36195 U.S.A.
M. Deny, Hdlaad,
Autopoiesis: A Theory of Living Organization. New York: North1981.
Autopoiesis is a concept invented in the early 1970s by H.R. Maturana, R.B. Uribe and F.J. Varela. Its definition is as follows (quoting p. 6): “‘A unity realized through a closed organization of production processes such that (a) the same organization of processes is generated through the interaction of their own products (components) and (b) a topological boundary emerges as the result of the same constitutive processes. ” Here unity means an entity distinguished fe7-gm its background by the organism, and closed organization means a circular organization of processes which recursively depend on each other for their maintenance and realization. The archetypal example is the linear organism, or its subsystems, such as the cell, which continually reproduces itself, its chemical constitutuents being renewed about 10,000 times during its life,
The present book consists of separate papers, many presented at a 1977 NATO
T. Downing Bowler, General Systems Thinking. New kork: Yorth-Holland, 1981. This book is an exposition of the present scientific view of the universe from thtt viewpoint that the idea of a system is the unifying concept. In turn, it trhs up
Book reviews
306
without mathematics, entropy, the structure of atoms and molecules, organic chemistry, the physical universe as a whole, organisms in terms of homeostasis, control, and subsystems, the earth as an ecosystem, learning and personality, subjective experience and consciousness, integration of personality, meaning, small social groups, civilizations, ontology. The tone is philosophical. Some persistent themes are equilibrium, the control of a system over its subsystems, the danger of having a subsystem take over this control, the relationship of subjective experience and an objective system, and M. Melko’s theories of human systems. Melko focuses on the processes of differentiation and integration. He considers the basic motivation of small group formation to be problem solution. A leader emerges who is able to communicate his own view of the problem. The members of the system specialize more and more. Authority is exercised by the members perceiving the group as tied to their identity, and to a lesser degree by rewards rtnd sanctions. Common standards develop. Melko’s and Carl Quigley’s
general systems theory
theories of civilizations are also described.
F. W. Roush Mathematical Social Sciences A fabama State University Montgomery, Alabama 36195 U.S.A.
M. Deny, Hdlaad,
Autopoiesis: A Theory of Living Organization. New York: North1981.
Autopoiesis is a concept invented in the early 1970s by H.R. Maturana, R.B. Uribe and F.J. Varela. Its definition is as follows (quoting p. 6): “‘A unity realized through a closed organization of production processes such that (a) the same organization of processes is generated through the interaction of their own products (components) and (b) a topological boundary emerges as the result of the same constitutive processes. ” Here unity means an entity distinguished fe7-gm its background by the organism, and closed organization means a circular organization of processes which recursively depend on each other for their maintenance and realization. The archetypal example is the linear organism, or its subsystems, such as the cell, which continually reproduces itself, its chemical constitutuents being renewed about 10,000 times during its life,
The present book consists of separate papers, many presented at a 1977 NATO