Generations, political attitudes and voting behavior in Taiwan and Hong Kong

Accepted Manuscript Generations, political attitudes and voting behavior in Taiwan and Hong Kong Stan Hok-Wui Wong, Kuan-Chen Lee, Karl Ho, Harold D. Clarke, Chia-hung Tsai, Christopher H. Achen, T.Y. Wang PII:

S0261-3794(17)30550-4

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2018.12.007

Reference:

JELS 2001

To appear in:

Electoral Studies

Received Date: 6 December 2017 Revised Date:

30 November 2018

Accepted Date: 21 December 2018

Please cite this article as: Wong, S.H.-W., Lee, K.-C., Ho, K., Clarke, H.D., Tsai, C.-h., Achen, C.H., Wang, T.Y., Generations, political attitudes and voting behavior in Taiwan and Hong Kong, Electoral Studies (2019), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2018.12.007. This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

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Generations, Political Attitudes and Voting Behavior in Taiwan and Hong Kong1 Abstract

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Society changes with the addition of new members. Different generations have distinct historical experiences, which may shape their political stance across a spectrum of attitudes and behaviors. This symposium includes four articles analyzing generational politics in Taiwan and Hong Kong. The studies show that there are behavioral and attitudinal differences between the young and the old in both places. As overall voter turnout has declined in Taiwan, youth turnout has declined even more. In particular, the “China factor” is the main driving force to the younger generations’ political activism. Youths in both Taiwan and Hong Kong exhibit a strong local identity that differentiates them from the Chinese. The stronger the identity is, the more politically active they are.

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Generational analysis of social and political changes has attracted substantial scholarly attention in recent decades. Such attention is based on the assumption that each age cohort has varying characteristics and thus possess different contributions to the changing order of society. Due to their distinct location in a historical continuum, members of each generation are predisposed with “a certain characteristic mode of thought and experience, and a characteristic type of historically relevant action” (Mannheim, 1952: 291). The varying contributions of emerging age groups therefore have made “generation” an important factor in shaping an individual’s political attitudes and behaviors (Mannheim, 1952; Ryder, 1965).

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Indeed, the notion of generation has been widely used in a variety of studies. Partisan affiliation is a popular subject of generational analysis (Claggett 1981; Converse 1976; Jennings and Markus 1984; Marsh 1975). Other topics include American leaders’ foreign policy belief during the post-Vietnam era (Holsti and Rosenau, 1980), occupational achievements of various ethnic groups in the US (Neidert and Farley, 1985), the implications of “answering machines generation” to telephone surveys (Oldendick and Link, 1994), and the elite politics in China (Li, 2001). Substantial generational effects have also been found in the decline of voter turnout (Lyons and Alexander, 2000; Vowles, 2010), ideological differences (Kang, 2008) and incumbent advantages (Mcghee, 2008) in the US and other democracies. Following this broad theoretical interest, this symposium aims to analyze generational differences in political attitudes and behaviors in Taiwan and Hong Kong. The symposium originated in a conference which brought together scholars from Hong Kong, New Zealand, Taiwan, and the United States. 2 During the discussion, a common theme emerged on 1

Paper written as an introduction to the Special Symposium on generational analysis of political attitudes and behaviors in Taiwan and Hong Kong.

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“2016 International Conference on Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study: Changing Taiwan Voter?” Election Study Center of the National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan, October 30, 2016.

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generational politics in Taiwan and Hong Kong. The two polities share important similar social, economic and political conditions, as the populations in both societies are ethnic Chinese. Both polities are geographically close to the Chinese mainland, and both have complicated political and economic relationships with an increasingly powerful and assertive China. The difference is that Hong Kong’s sovereignty was reverted to the Beijing government in 1997 and has since been a special administrative region of the Chinese state. Taiwan is effectively an independent country, though Beijing repeatedly asserts its sovereignty over the island, backing up its claim by imposing diplomatic isolation on Taipei, with the threat of military force.

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In 2014, two major protests occurred in Taiwan and Hong Kong: the “Sunflower Movement” (J. R. 2014; Rowen, 2015) and the “Umbrella Revolution” (Connors, 2015), respectively. The intensity and the scope of both movements were unprecedented and both were led by young political activists, most of whom were in their 20s. The movements appear to suggest that younger generations are politically more active and more engaged in issues related to China. With this backdrop, the symposium aims to examine the following questions: Are younger generations in Taiwan and Hong Kong more politically active than their elders? If so, how can the political activism of younger cohorts be explained?3

The Context

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Both Taiwan and Hong Kong have close economic but complicated political relationships with China. After being defeated by the Communist troops in 1949, the government of Nationalist Party (Kuomintang or KMT) retreated to Taiwan. To realize their ambitious attempt of “recovering the Chinese mainland,” KMT elites imposed harsh authoritarian rule coupled with intense “re-Sinicization” efforts. The goal was to make local residents accept the view that they were Chinese and China was their motherland. The rapid democratization since the late 1980s, and the resulting indigenization, has led to the rise of a Taiwan-centered identity. As a result, a conscious contrast between “Taiwanese vs. Chinese” has emerged on the island, which is directly related to their stances on Taiwan’s future relationship with China, dubbed as the issue of unification vs. independence (Wang, 2017).

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Cross-strait relations were relatively smooth and peaceful between 2008-2016 under President Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT. The Ma administration adopted a rapprochement approach towards China, including endorsing the “one China with different interpretations” – also known as the “1992 Consensus.” 4 Ma’s position was in sharp contrast to that of his predecessor, Interestingly, while generation analysis has been applied to Taiwanese politics (Liu, 1996; 1999), particularly in recent decade (Chang and Wang, 2005; Chen and Chen 2003; Chen and Chou 2004; Lin 2012; Sheng 2002), there is no comparable study on Hong Kong politics except research on generational differences in education (Lai, 2005), and cancer study (Leung, Woo, McGhee, Cheung, Fan, Mang, Thach and Ngan, 2006; Wong, Cowling, Law, Mang, Schooling and Leung, 2010).

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The “one China with different interpretations” is a tacit understanding presumably reached by Beijing and Taipei in November of 1992 that the notion of “one China” should serve as the basis

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President Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Chen had strong proindependence credentials and his administration implemented a series of policies to promote Taiwan’s independent status in the international community. Ma’s rapprochement approach was thus welcomed by Chinese leaders and a number of agreements were reached between Taipei and Beijing during Ma’s tenure.5 Cross-strait economic relations expanded substantially as a result. Because China has been viewed as a hostile regime, many Taiwanese citizens fear that rapid expansion of cross-Strait economic exchanges would increase the island’s dependence on the Chinese market and make it vulnerable to Beijing’s control. Those who were independenceleaning believe that Ma’s China-friendly policies would “sell out” Taiwan’s sovereignty to the Beijing government. Such discontents motivated the student-led Sunflower Movement in 2014 against a proposed cross-Strait trade-in-service agreement by the Ma administration (J. R., 2014).

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The Findings

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In the same year, the Umbrella Revolution occurred in Hong Kong, protesting Beijingimposed electoral rules, which would allow Chinese leaders to screen candidates for the territory’s Chief Executive position before a general election. Twenty years after its status being changed from a British colony to a Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) under Beijing’s “one country, two systems” unification formula, Hong Kong’s relationship with China has been tense. The tension originates in part from rapid China-Hong Kong socioeconomic integration and in part from the clash between the increasingly authoritarian Beijing government and a rising aspiration for democracy among the local populace. Both sources of tension have alienated the people of Hong Kong and threatened their sense of distinctiveness. Many of them, particularly the younger generations, have developed “a strong sense of Hong Kong identity that resists any attempt at ‘mainlandizing’ or ‘Sinifying’ the politics, economy, society, and legal systems of the HKSAR” (Lo, 2018: 393). Thus, when the Beijing government announced a proposed change to the Hong Kong electoral system in 2014, protests erupted with tens of thousands residents taking to the streets, bringing Hong Kong to a standstill. The proposed change stated that only those candidates chosen by a Nomination Committee would be allowed to run for the chief executive position. Protesters claimed that the Beijing government reneged on the promise that Hong Kongers would be able to elect their own leader by universal suffrage by 2017. Led and supported by many student activists, the Umbrella Revolution lasted almost three months before it was forcefully cleared by the police.

The common threads of the two unprecedented movements in Taiwan and Hong Kong are the active participation of young citizens, with the Beijing government being the shared target. To assess the generational differences in both places, four articles are included in this symposium (Achen and Wang, 2019; Huang, 2019; Tsai, 2019; Wong, Lee, Ho and Clarke, 2019). The first article by Wong et al. compares attitudinal differences toward Chinese immigrants in Hong Kong for cross-Strait interactions but the two governments had different versions of what “one China” was (Su and Cheng, 2002). 5

For the various agreements reached by SEF and ARATS, see the website of Mainland Affairs Council .

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and Taiwan. The remaining three articles have a specific focus on Taiwan, investigating generational gaps with respect to the unification/independence issue, participation in contentious political activities, and declining voter turnout.

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The initial focus of the symposium was to define each generation. Indeed, the task of identifying different political generations is easier said than done due to the absence of standard guidelines. The designation of any generational boundaries could be viewed as purely arbitrary. Some argue that biological birth dates are just a starting point for various sociological trajectories of individuals, and thus the coexistence in the same time period should not be the defining characteristic of a generation (Neumann, 1965). They followed Mannheim’s and Neumann’s conceptualization, distinguishing generations based on common experiences and historical memories (e.g., Blais and Rubenson, 2013; Chang and Wang, 2005).6 Assumptions of this kind may resolve the identification problem of such statistical models as age-period and cohort (APC) analyses, but critics question whether cohort effects are really the same within each of these, sometimes very broadly defined, groups. Alternatively, the use of shorter age intervals has been considered a viable option since it requires fewer assumptions.7 Thus, all of the contributors of this symposium more or less define generations by adjacent age groups. For instance, Achen and Wang (2019) employ 10-year interval and separate respondents into five generations. Tsai (2019) uses a similar categorization. Huang (2019) categorizes all respondents into six groups based on the year of Taiwan’s presidential elections, while Wong et al. (2019) simply define young people as someone aged 25 or younger in contrast with the older generation.

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Are there attitudinal and behavioral differences between the young and the old? Employing recently collected survey data in Hong Kong and in Taiwan, the findings of Wong et. al. (2019) show a distinct generational gap in attitudes toward Chinese immigrants in Hong Kong. The authors theorize that the influx of immigration generally increases labor market competition, heightens the anxiety over cultural identity and thus leads to varying political attitudes and behaviors. The reactions to immigration, however, are not uniform across the population because younger generations tend to be more sensitive to its effects. Due to the large number of migrant Chinese citizens to Hong Kong since 1997, the youths in Hong Kong are dissatisfied with the former colony’s economic integration with the Chinese mainland, possessing a deep resentment against Chinese immigrants. Their attitudinal differences are manifested in their rising local identity and electoral support for China-resisting political parties. By contrast, Taiwan has not experienced the same level of immigration from China due to persistent crossStrait tension. Compared to their counterparts in Hong Kong, the youths in Taiwan are relatively insulated from the effects of immigration. The limited contact and competition may explain Taiwanese youths’ relative indifference to the effects of Chinese immigrants on Taiwanese For instance, Blais and Rubenson (2013) argued that “generational effects are discrete and can be captured by the simple distinction between preboomers, boomers, and postboomers” (2013: 101). Chang and Wang (2005) distinguished generations based on a series of significant events in Taiwan’s modern history, including the retreat of the Nationalist government to Taiwan, Taipei’s withdrawal from the UN, the establishment of the first opposition party, and the peaceful transfer of political power in Taiwan.

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I thank Dr. Christopher Achen for making this point to me.

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society.

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The next article by Tsai (2019) examines the unconventional participation, which includes such activities as protests, demonstrations, rallies and sit-ins. Unlike such common political activities as voting and running for political offices, contentious political actions have recently become popular in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, challenging both democratic and non-democratic regimes. The Sunflower Movement, along with the Umbrella Revolution, occurred amid this wave of unconventional political participation in Asia. With a focus on Taiwan, Tsai’s study shows that personal resources and political attitudes are the main driving forces for the island citizens’ contentious political actions. This implies that the older generation, not the younger, are more likely to engage in unconventional participation because the former tends to have more personal resources and stronger partisan ties. Since partisan attachment with the pro-independence DPP played a major role in motivating citizens’ participation in contentious political actions, the Sunflower Movement was in fact led by a group of young people who strongly supported Taiwanese independence.

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While the above two studies suggest that the average Taiwanese youths react moderately to the impact of Chinese immigrants and are less inclined to participate in contentious political activities, this does not mean that they are indifferent to Taiwan’s future relationship with China. Scholars and pundits have long observed a shifting public attitude toward independence, but there are two competing explanations of these attitudinal changes. One explanation suggests that this is due to the mounting dissatisfaction with the Ma administration’s China-friendly policy. This interpretation points to a short-term period effect. The other explanation draws attention to a long-term cohort effect that the younger generation tends to favor Taiwan independence more than the older generation. Employing a repeated effect model analyzing six waves of survey data, the study by Huang (2019) shows that there is a substantial cohort movement toward a proindependence view. In particular, younger generations of mainlanders and aborigines, the two ethnic groups who traditionally lean more towards unification, now move faster toward the other direction than other ethnic groups. Moreover, the adoption of a Taiwan-centered high school curriculum in 1999 has exerted substantial effects on the young citizens’ positions on the independence/unification issue, which demonstrates the power of political socialization. Because older cohorts will be increasingly replaced by younger generations, supporting Taiwan independence and maintaining cross-Strait status quo will likely be the mainstream opinion in the Taiwanese society. The last article by Achen and Wang (2019) tackles the declining voter turnout in Taiwan. Like many mature democracies, Taiwan experienced a drop of 14 percentage points in presidential election turnout, from 80% to 66% between 2004 and 2016. Because voter turnout is considered an important indicator of democratic health, the substantial decline of electoral engagement is worrisome. Utilizing survey data collected by Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS), Achen and Wang explore the sources of the decline in Taiwan’s turnout. After resolving the issue of “overreport,” i.e., respondents’ self-reported turnout rate in surveys being greater than that in official records, the statistical analysis shows that there is a substantial age gap in turnout even after controlling the standard explanatory variables that have long been known to predict turnout (e.g., caring about the outcome, duty to vote). When turnout fell from 2004 to 2016, the young seems to drop out most. While the explanation of turnout

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differences of age groups naturally invites age-period-cohort (APC) analysis, APC models generally have an inherent identification issue due to perfect collinearity of age, period and cohort. To resolve this problem, APC models frequently rely on assumptions that either lack substantive interpretation or generate unstable outcomes. In lieu of these methodological critiques, Achen and Wang caution against the conclusion that the drop of Taiwan’s youth turnout is a permanent cohort effect. Addressing the decline of youth turnout, they argue, will require more powerful tools than we have yet developed.

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Taken together, the studies featured in this Symposium show that there are generational differences between the young and the old in Taiwan and in Hong Kong. The young, for example, has a much lower voter turnout in Taiwan. In particular, the “China factor” is the primary driving force to the younger generations’ political activism in both places. Both the Sunflower Movement and the Umbrella Revolution were reactions toward a powerful and threatening China. Confronting Beijing’s forceful and aggressive claim, Taiwanese youths exhibit a strong Taiwan-centered identity. The stronger the identity is, the more politically active they are. Similarly, the younger generations in Hong Kong display a deep dissatisfaction with the former colony’s increasing socio-economic integration with the Chinese mainland. The resentment, in turn, has fostered a strong local identity. Both identities developed in Taiwan and Hong Kong exhibit an intense dislike, even resentment, of a hostile China. As the ubiquitous effect of identity has been widely recognized in the scholarship of social sciences, the findings presented above have important implications, not only for the domestic politics in Taiwan and Hong Kong but also for their relationship with a rising and assertive China.

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