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Group Management in Social and Economic Systems: Research of Efficiency by Means of Cognitive Analysis
18th IFAC Conference on Technology, Culture and International 18th IFAC Conference on Technology, Culture and International Stability Stability 18th Conference Sept on Technology, Culture and International Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Baku,IFAC Azerbaidschan, 13-15, 2018 Stability 18th Conference Sept on Technology, Baku,IFAC Azerbaidschan, 13-15, 2018Culture and International Stability Baku, Azerbaidschan, Sept 13-15, 2018 Baku, Azerbaidschan, Sept 13-15, 2018
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IFAC PapersOnLine 51-30 (2018) 510–515
Group Group Management Management in in Social Social and and Economic Economic Systems: Systems: Research of Efficiencyinby Means CognitiveSystems: Analysis Group Management Social andofEconomic Research of Efficiencyinby Means CognitiveSystems: Analysis Group Management Social andofEconomic Research of Efficiency by Means of Cognitive Analysis Kul’ba, D. Kononov, I. Chernov, P. Ponomarev Research ofV. Efficiency by Means of Cognitive Analysis V. Kul’ba, D. Kononov, I. Chernov, P. Ponomarev
V. Kul’ba, D. Kononov, I. Chernov, P. Ponomarev V. Kul’ba, D. Kononov, I. Russian Chernov, P. Ponomarev Institute of Control Sciences of Academy of Sciences Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences 65, Profsoyuznaya str., Moscow, 117806, Russia Institute Control Sciences Russian117806, AcademyRussia of Sciences 65,ofProfsoyuznaya str.,ofMoscow, Tel: (7-095) fax: (7-095) 334-89-59; Institute ofProfsoyuznaya Control 334-90-09 Sciences ofMoscow, Russian Academy of Sciences 65, str., 117806, Russia Tel: (7-095) 334-90-09 fax: (7-095) 334-89-59; e-mail: [email protected] 65, Profsoyuznaya str., Moscow, 117806, Russia Tel: (7-095) 334-90-09 fax: (7-095) 334-89-59; e-mail: [email protected] Tel: (7-095) 334-90-09 fax: (7-095) 334-89-59; e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: [email protected] Abstract. The main components of the cognitive scenario methodology of research of socio-economic Abstract. The main components of the cognitive scenario methodology of research of socio-economic systems are considered. A generalofmodel for researching themethodology mechanisms of management in socioof group Abstract. The main components the cognitive scenario research of socio-economic systems are considered. A general model for researching the mechanisms of group management in socioeconomicare systems is components constructed. The properties and performance characteristics ofmanagement theofapplication of the Abstract. The main of the cognitive scenario methodology research socio-economic systems considered. A general model for researching the mechanisms of group in economic systems is constructed. The properties and performance characteristics of the application socioof the mechanisms of group management areproperties considered andperformance formalized. Examples of comparative calculations systems are considered. A generalThe model for researching the mechanisms of group management in socioeconomic systems is constructed. and characteristics of the application of the mechanisms of group management are considered and formalized. Examples of comparative calculations of the effectiveness group management in theand regional systems of the central district of economic systems is of constructed. The properties performance characteristics of federal the application of the mechanisms of group management are considered and formalized. Examples of comparative calculations of the effectiveness of given. group management in the regional systems of the central federal district of the Russian Federation are mechanisms of group are considered formalized. of comparative calculations of the effectiveness ofmanagement group management in the and regional systemsExamples of the central federal district of the Russian Federation are given. of the effectiveness of group management in the regional systems of the central federal district of the Russian Federation are given. © 2018, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting bymodel, Elsevier socio-economic Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: cognitive scenario methodology, group management systems, Russian Federation are given. Keywords: cognitive scenario methodology, group management model, socio-economic systems, managementcognitive effectiveness, the Central Federal district ofmanagement the Russian Federation. Keywords: scenario methodology, groupof model, socio-economic systems, management effectiveness, the Central Federal district the Russian Federation. Keywords: cognitive scenario methodology, group management model, socio-economic systems, management effectiveness, the Central Federal district of the Russian Federation. management effectiveness, the Central Federal district of the Russian Federation. requiring a reference to its own opposite of this discipline" 1. INTRODUCTION requiring a reference to its own opposite of this discipline" [Metlov (2004)]. It was the difficulties modeling that 1. INTRODUCTION requiring a reference to not its own opposite ofof discipline" [Metlov (2004)]. It was not the difficulties ofthis modeling that 1. INTRODUCTION led to disappointment, but the use of traditional research a reference to not its own opposite ofofthis discipline" Studying the problems of Social development, scientists – requiring [Metlov (2004)]. It was the difficulties modeling that 1. INTRODUCTION to disappointment, but the use of traditional research Studying the problems of Social development, scientists – led methods, the lackItofwas a broad, interdisciplinary viewresearch of that the [Metlov (2004)]. not the difficulties of modeling representatives of humanitarian disciplines to describe the led to disappointment, but the use of traditional the lack of a broad, interdisciplinary view of the Studying the problems of Socialdisciplines development, scientiststhe– methods, representatives of humanitarian to describe problem [Kapitsa (1997)]. led to disappointment, but the use of traditional research processes most use standard means to of "dialectical" Studying problems of Social development, scientiststhe– methods, the lack(1997)]. of a broad, interdisciplinary view of the representatives ofoften humanitarian disciplines problem [Kapitsa processes the most often use standard means of describe "dialectical" the lack(1997)]. of a broad, interdisciplinary view of the logic, which provides a use widestandard arbitrariness to build a modelthe of methods, representatives of humanitarian disciplines to describe problem [Kapitsa processes most often means of "dialectical" presented work is part of a series of studies of the logic, which provides a wide arbitrariness to build a model of The problem [Kapitsa (1997)]. Society. At the same time applied mathematicians use strict The presented work is part of a series of studies of the processes oftenatime use standard means of "dialectical" logic, which provides wideapplied arbitrariness to build a use model of authors on the development methodology the formation Society. Atmost the same mathematicians strict The presented work partof a series offor of the means of mathematics and Informatics. Both concepts are authors on the development of of methodology forstudies the formation logic, which provides wide arbitrariness to build a use model of of social developmentisscenarios Society. the same atime mathematicians strict at different levels of of social means ofAtmathematics andapplied Informatics. Both concepts are The presented work is part of a series of studies the authors on the development of methodology for the formation currently going through a period of crisis. Society. At the same time applied mathematicians use strict of social development scenarios at different levels of social means ofgoing mathematics Informatics. The proposed methodology islevels based on the currently through aand period of crisis. Both concepts are stratification. authors on the development of methodology for the formation of social development scenarios at different of social The proposed methodology is based on the means ofgoing mathematics and Informatics. Both concepts are stratification. currently through a period of crisis. principles of interdisciplinary cognitive analysis, which of social development scenarios at differentis levels social It is thought that the study of complex systems leads beyond stratification. proposed methodology basedofon the of The interdisciplinary cognitive analysis, which currently going a period of crisis. It is thought thatthrough the study of complex systems leads beyond principles allows us toof consider the problem from different points of stratification. The proposed methodology is based on the applicability of the empirical method, which provided the principles interdisciplinary cognitive analysis, which us to consider the problem from different points the of It thought thatofthethestudy of complex systems beyond theisapplicability empirical method, which leads provided the allows view and apply the methods of research of the spectrum of principles interdisciplinary cognitive analysis, which triumph of natural Sciences the lastsystems 300 years. For this It thought thatofthethe study ofin leads beyond us apply toof consider the problem from of different points of view and the methods of research the spectrum theisapplicability empirical method, which provided the allows of triumph of natural Sciences incomplex the last 300 years. For this related scientific disciplines: Humanities, natural, use allows us to consider the problem from different points of reason, much of the progress in last describing social the applicability of the empirical method, which provided the view andscientific apply the disciplines: methods of research of thenatural, spectrumuse of triumph of natural Sciences in the 300 years. For and this related Humanities, reason, much of the progress in describing social and mathematical models and methods. andscientific apply the disciplines: methods of research of thenatural, spectrumuse of biological is farprogress lessinthan progress insocial describing triumph ofprocesses natural Sciences theinthe last 300 years. For and this view related Humanities, reason, much of the describing mathematical models and methods. biological processes is far all lessthe than the progress in describing related scientific disciplines: Humanities, natural, use non-living nature, despite efforts made during the 20th reason, much of despite the inthedescribing and mathematical models andresearch methods.is to create a device for the biological processes is farprogress lessthe than progress insocial describing The main purpose of the non-living nature, all efforts made during the 20th mathematical models andresearch methods.is to create a device for the and 21st centuries. The main purpose of the biological processes is far less than the progress in describing non-living nature, despite all the efforts made during the 20th study of synergistic obvious managerial influence, and 21st centuries. 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This formalized apparatus, or unknown Laws of Nature) and aattractive (with order, but it can not say what will order after the behavior competence, provided that the replace existing clear subject of management, pursuing specific goal)a of objective complex systems. This formalized apparatus, relations maintained, can detect threatsthis tosocio-economic the established order, butare it can not say what will replace this order after the including theoretical and practical aspects ofspecific the apparatus, proposed clear subject of management, pursuing a goal) crisis. but Evolution is asay creation of the world, i.e. a established process of behavior relations are maintained, can detect threats to the of complex systems. This formalized order, it can not what will replace this order after the theoretical and practical aspects of the proposed crisis. Evolution is a creation of the world, i.e. a process of including problem, could be synthesized on the basis of integration of behavior of complex systems. This formalized apparatus, purely creative [Pospelov (2005)]. of integration order, it can[Pospelov not what will replace this after the theoretical and practical aspects the proposed crisis. Evolution is asay creation of the world, i.e.order a process of including problem, could be synthesized on the basis of of purely but creative (2005)]. currently disparate components of scientific knowledge of including theoretical and practical aspects of the proposed crisis. Evolution is a creation of the world, i.e. a process of problem, could be synthesized onofthescientific basis of knowledge integration of currently disparate components purely creative [Pospelov (2005)]. of Similar frustrations consciously philosophical science. problem, control theory, computer science, applied mathematics, could be synthesized on the basis of integration of currently disparate components of scientific knowledge purely creative [Pospelov (2005)]. philosophical science. control theory, computer science, applied mathematics, of Similar frustrations consciously Interdisciplinary methodologies are actively involved in the synergetics, a number of Humanities. disparate components of scientific of control theory, computer science, applied knowledge mathematics, Similar frustrations consciously philosophical Interdisciplinary methodologies are actively involvedscience. in the currently synergetics, a number of Humanities. field of research, each consciously of whichare offers its own models and Similar frustrations philosophical science. control theory, computer science, applied mathematics, synergetics, a number of Humanities. Interdisciplinary methodologies actively involved in the field of research, each of which offers its own models and Theoretically, this synthesis will allow us to comprehend, methods of research. Among them there aremodels cognitive, Interdisciplinary methodologies actively involved in and the Theoretically, synergetics, a number of Humanities. this synthesis will allow us to comprehend, field of research, each of whichare offers its own methods of research. 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At the same time, is understand, accept and "put into operation" the contemporary synergetic quantum-like methodologies. of science, of asMankind. a necessary condition for it Cognitive and Sciences are an interdisciplinary cluster of achievements survival and development At the same time, itthe is interrelated disciplinesare whose subject areas overlapcluster partially. extremely important: to integrate them into a single science, achievements of science, as a necessary condition for the Cognitive Sciences an interdisciplinary of and development of Mankind. thea same it is interrelated disciplines whose subject areas overlap partially. survival extremely important: to integrate them At into singletime, science, According to one of the existing points of view, in calling for help theto methodology various scientific Cognitive interdisciplinary of and development of Mankind. 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Copyright © 2018, 2018beyond IFAC 510Hosting 2405-8963 © IFAC (International Federation of Automaticcrisis, Control) by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Copyright 2018 responsibility IFAC 510Control. Peer review©under of International Federation of Automatic Copyright © 2018 IFAC 510 10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.11.275 Copyright © 2018 IFAC 510
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main social objects, social structures and describe on this basis various social processes.
Such a device would allow to make a breakthrough in the study of both synergistic and attractive description of social development and to start the direct creation of means of its effective Design [Kononov (1999), (2001), (2005), Kul’ba (2016)]. The aim of the research is to create the foundations of the automation system of social design [Shultz (2012)].
The combination of the system-logical and structural-social approaches makes it possible to research human activity as the main driving factor for the socio-economic system development, considering it as a structured spectrum of formalized processes of changing the states of socioeconomic objects and actors.
2. MAIN COMPONENTS OF THE COGNITIVE SCENARIO METHODOLOGY
Scenario approach assumes the research of processes occurring in socio-economic systems, based on the construction and research of behavior scenarios (synergistic scenarios) of social actors and management scenarios (attractive scenarios) by social objects.
The research of behavior and the search for effective mechanisms to control complex systems are quite complex and at the same time important tasks. In the development of specific action plans for programme-specific management, it is necessary to conduct extensive research on the socioeconomic system (SES), aimed at identifying and analyzing crisis trends and ensuring sustainable development in the market and expanding globalization.
The combination of system-logical, structural-social and scenario approaches allows researching multifaceted problems, subjecting to scenario analysis and synthesizing behavior scenarios of various social actors of action, and moving to the creation of a security system for a given social object, social structure or social process.
The task is to develop formalized statements, as well as methods of for searching and analyzing of alternative development options in terms of event-based presentation of the situation under uncertainty. The methodology of scenario research of complex systems satisfies these criteria.
For effectively research of information management [Kononov (2004)], it is proposed to use the informationlogical approach that the description and research of information objects is based on the formation of information sets that support the functioning of given formal system objects on the stratified varieties under consideration. The main concepts used are «formal informational system», «informational connection», «informational potential», «and informational field », «informational action».
The initial positions of the ideas on the creation of criteria and methods for the research of the Socium as a socioeconomic system in the scenario methodology are grouped according to the following dimensions: – the concept of approaches to the research of the socioeconomic system,
The introduction of the formal concept of « informational action» [Shultz (2012)] allows us to offer formalized ways of describing the behavior strategies of action subjects in various situations of information interaction.
– the concept of the principles of functioning and development, – the forms and ways of transforming the society, – informatization and automation.
The combination of the system and information-logical approaches allows researching the procedures for the formation, transformation and use of information as formal processes of changing information states (internal, external and extended) of formal system objects [Kononov (2005), Cherrnov (2008)].
The philosophical foundations, principles and concept of cognitive research of SES suggest the integration of systemlogical, structural-social, information-logical and scenario approaches. Taking into account these dimensions of global social interaction allows us to formulate the main problems, principles and mechanisms of research in the modern world, as well as put them into practice on the basis of modern means of communication and achievements of computer science.
The combination of the system-logical, structural-social and information-logical approaches makes it possible to research informational influences and impacts in social systems, considering them as formalized processes of changing informational states of social objects and actors, including individual and collective actions of people, taking into account the circumstances in which is the process of management. Such a synthesis allows us to consider the informational behavior (development) of the socio-economic system as a whole, as well as its individual elements.
The system-logical approach involves the description and study of objects of research from the standpoint of system analysis, which is based on the concept of "formal system object". This will allow studying objects and processes from the point of view of formal logical and mathematical methods.
The combination of system-logical, structural-social, information-logical and scenario approaches allows one to research multidimensional informational problems, to analyze and synthesize scenarios of rational informational behavior of various social subjects of action, and, ultimately, to create an informational security system for a given social
Structural and social approach involves the description and study of socio-economic objects of management based on the definition and structuring of human activities. This should allow studying the objects and processes in social systems on different strata of social structure of society, highlighting the
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object, social structure or social process, in conditions of conducting complex informational interaction.
the tasks of operational, tactical and strategic management of functioning and development of SES are considered.
In the works [Kononov (1999, 2001), Kul'ba (2016, 2017), Shultz (2012)] are proposed the cognitive methodology of the research. It allows creating descriptions of the behavior and development of socio-economic systems in the form of formalized scenarios over a certain time interval in the conditions of resource, financial, social, and political and other types of restrictions. Its essence is the fact that the scenario of SES behavior is a successive stage of system development, each of which has its own peculiarities and specific features.
Group management is a joint (coordinated) decision-making and implementation-related management of a group of objects (development factors), i.e. a set of taken and realized decisions in relation to the allocated group of factors: objects, phenomena and processes in SES. Currently, the methods of group management are used mainly in a number of technical systems (machines control and robots), logistics, aircraft, etc. However, formalized researches are insignificant in organizational and socioeconomic systems.
In accordance with the goals and criteria of development periodization at each stage problems identified that need to be solved. The formalized procedure for generating scenarios allows constructing and analyzing of alternative development variants, i.e. to carry out a scenario analysis of the system's behavior, and also to select a rational scenario in accordance with the specified settings of decision-makers.
Development of analysis tools and optimal synthesis of scenarios of group management requires: – formation of objects models of group management; carrying out classification and formalization of methods; – determination of properties, both of separate objects and their joint characteristics;
The present system analysis apparatus researches the problems and dynamics of the complex large-scale systems development, provides consideration of a variety of alternative solutions, each of which is described by a sufficiently large number of variables, allows to take into account the risks of various types, to develop effective solutions in conditions of limited time and resources.
– determination of optimality criteria, as well as conditions for the realization of group management. The group management model MG in the socio-economic system S can be specified in various ways. Select the following components: МG(S)={S; A; C; z; O; Act, u; p; ξ; , MD(S), МE},
The methodological apparatus of the formalized scenario research contains a number of basic components: models and methods of scenario analysis, the basis of scenario calculus and models and methods of scenario synthesis. The basis of the research is the scheme for the formation of scenarios.
where S – designation of the system under research, yEm – phase variables of s system S,
The typology of applied systems proposed in [Arkhipova (2011)] makes it possible to structure the SES and research its subsystems using the method of formalized scenario research. Experience in the development of various scenario systems shows that already at the level of classification one can highlight a number of their characteristic structural features. You can group them according to the characteristics that determine the unique properties and relationships between the indicators of the selected classification group. Further, using various formal characteristics, as well as operations in the scenario spaces under consideration, it is possible to conduct an effective analysis and carry out the synthesis of optimal development scenarios, and thus construct an optimal scenario of the transformations.
xEk – environment variables, z=(x, y) – extended phase variables of the s system S, O={O(i), i=1,…,nO} – control objects, Act={Ac(i), i=1,…,nA} – control subjects, A – control objectives, C – control strategy, u = (u(i), i=1,…,d) – control actions, p = (p(i), i=1,…,h) – control resources, ξ – types (models) of uncertainty taken into account,
Thus, the proposed integration of interdisciplinary knowledge allows in a new light to present the processes of modeling and the formation of effective management technique in SES.
=[tн, tк] – control horizon, MD (S) – behavior model of the S system,
3. RESEARCH OF EFFICIENCY OF APPLICATION OF GROUP MANAGEMENT
МE={f, C, ξ} – model for evaluating the effectiveness of management strategies,
The offered methodology has a set of appendices [Shultz. (2012)]. In the present section methods of a research of efficiency of application of group management for solving
f – a set of characteristics of the behavior scenario. It is possible to classify group management by various signs: classification groups of control objects; decision-making 512
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time; criteria for the consistency of management; comparative characteristics of the control object; applied methods of control, etc. In particular, the concepts of parallel and sequential, synchronous and asynchronous, periodic and aperiodic, in-phase and other types of group control can be defined for the components of the model. The definition of the group management model in the system allows us to proceed to a description of the dynamics of control and the formation of scenarios for the functioning of the researched system [Shultz. (2012)].
alternative scenarios constructed.
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for
changing
the
situation
are
In this paper the characteristic «T-step threat» is used as a criterion of management effectiveness. Such criterion characterizes the occurrence time of undesirable phenomena in a regional system when this management mechanism is applied. In the Institute of Control Sciences of Russian of sciences the calculations were carried out on cognitive models (graph of pairwise relationships of macro indicators of the region development) of the RSES of Ivanovo, Kostroma, Vladimir and Yaroslavl regions of the Central Federal district (CFD).
Generation of such scenarios can be carried out automatically according to the scheme proposed earlier. Control objects. As the control objects are considered the regional socio-economic systems (RSES) of the Russian Federation.
This section is given an analysis of the effectiveness of group management using the «Yaroslavl region» model as an example, obtained on the basis of a computational experiment.
Control subjects (CS). The subjects of the Act are Federal or regional subjects of action that make decisions on changing the functioning or structural parameters of the RSES interaction.
The main objective of the research is to a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of scenarios for the region development under various variant for decision-making.
Control actions are impulse, structural and complex actions.
Stage 1. A design of regional development model.
1) Impulse control actions are legal change of RSES parameters values;
The region model includes 34 basic macroeconomic parameters: 1. Physical volume of production. 2. Investments level. 3. Production costs. 4. Price level. 5. Money supply. 6. Technological progress. 7. Work productivity level. 8. Employment level. 9. Standard of living. 10. Social programs volume. 11. Level of the shadow economy. 12. Level of tax rates. 13. Budget. 14. Macroeconomic risk. 15. External factors of development. 16. Level of an industrial complex development. 17. Level of an agricultural complex development. 18. Tourist complex. 19. Housing and communal services. 20. Demography level. 21. Education level. 22. Culture level. 23. Construction level. 24. Transport and logistics complex. 25. Level of an ecological situation. 26. Level of small and medium-sized businesses development. 27. Level of health care. 28. Consumer market. 29. Qualification of employees. 30. Wear of material resources. 31. External economic activity. 32. Domestic gross product per capita. 33. Physical health level of the population. 34. Real income level.
2) Structural control actions are legal change of RSES interaction rules; 3) Complex control actions are a set of impulse and structural control actions. Control goals are represented state defined of objects or development direction as a result of the implementation of management decisions. As control objectives are considered a reach of the values of the target vector a and the chosen direction b. A target vector a is the desired set of values for macroeconomic and social parameters; vector b characterizes the desired direction of their development. Control strategy. Control strategies are technique of implementing impacts depending on the condition. Uncertainty model. Models of uncertainty can be considered: deterministic, probabilistic, game-playing, fuzzy, reflective [Von Neumann J. A (1946), Zadeh L. (1965), Lefebvre V.A. (1987)].
As an example, in Fig. 1 the deterministic cognitive graph model of the Yaroslavl region is presented. When constructing graph models of other regions, specific social and economic characteristics of each region are taken into account.
The following methods for group management are considered: a centralized control is an influence which is carried out by the only CS; a distributed control is an impact realized by several CS; a periodic control is an impact on a group of selected objects with a defined periodicity in time.
Stage 2. A choice of significant development indicators. For modeling have been chosen managed development macro indicators: volume of Federal, regional and private investments; volume of social programs; level of tax rates; target development macro indicators: standard of living; level of health care; level of an ecological situation, level of an industrial complex development; level of an agricultural complex development; level of small and medium-sized businesses development. Above-mentioned factors are presented on the cognitive graph models of the chosen
The concentrated control is an impact on the selected object O (it is used as an alternative to a group management in the model of comparing their efficiency. A widespread scheme for dynamic model creation of regional development is the construction of a cognitive map [Harari (1965), Roberts (1974)] of regions development. Then 513
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regions: corresponding vertices; logical connections (link); length of a way from a control vertices to a target vertices; presence of contours opposing a parameters deviation in perturbing impact; presence of contours reinforcing a parameters deviation in a disturbance.
region» and region «Kostroma region» and affects slightly (on a given horizon of the scenario) on the macro indicators «level of health care» and «standard of living) of the region «Vladimirovsky region» and «Kostroma region». A certain economic situation is in each region if financing is insufficient. This is due to the following factors: different geographical location; historical development; trade and industrial relations; the presence of potentially dangerous objects of infrastructure; transport accessibility; professional training (availability of universities, etc.); investment attractiveness (availability of natural resources, etc.). This is due to the following factors: different geographical location; historical development; trade and industrial relations; presence of potentially dangerous objects of infrastructure; transport accessibility; professional training (availability of universities, etc.); investment attractiveness (availability of natural resources, etc.).
Fig.1. The graph model of the Yaroslavl region.
Scenario 2 (C2). Reducing the costs of social programs.
Stage 3. A choice of significant development indicators.
Cut in expenditure on social programs leads to significant deviation from target regime of functioning for these macro indicators of the regions «Vladimirovskaya region», «Kostroma region» and «Yaroslavl region» and affects slightly (on a given horizon of the scenario) on the macro indicators («level of health care», «standard of living ») of the «Ivanovo region».
For modeling have been chosen managed development macro indicators: volume of Federal, regional and private investments; volume of social programs; level of tax rates; target development macro indicators: standard of living; level of health care; level of an ecological situation, level of an industrial complex development; level of an agricultural complex development; level of small and medium-sized businesses development.
Scenario 3 (C3). Increase in the level of tax rates. Increase in level of tax rates leads to degradation in all indicators of target macroeconomic indicators of «Vladimir region» and «Yaroslavl region» and influences slightly (on a given horizon of the scenario) on the macro indicators («level of health care», «standard of living ») on the macro indicators of the region «Kostroma region».
Above-mentioned factors are presented on the cognitive graph models of the chosen regions: corresponding vertices; logical connections (link); length of a way from a control vertices to a target vertices; presence of contours opposing a parameters deviation in perturbing impact; presence of contours reinforcing a parameters deviation in a disturbance. Stage 4. A choice of control actions.
Scenario 4 (C4). Joint allocation of available resources to social programs and public investment.
As control actions are considered: reduction of investment level in the region; reduction of spending on social programs; increase in the level of tax rates; investment target financing of the CFD cluster. Each control mechanism produces a control scenario of the RSES.
For the model of the Yaroslavl region the following results were obtained: the chosen scenario, constructed with group management, improves the target macro indicators «Standard of living», «Level of an industrial complex development» and «Level of an ecological situation».
Stage 5. A choice the indicator of management effectiveness.
At the same time, a joint distribution of available resources (investment target financing of a cluster of the CFD – group management of development) is carried out so that to compensate insufficient economic development significant indicators of regions within the solution of general optimization task.
The matrix of T-step threats was considered as an indicator of efficiency. For each studied scenario of threat realization or given control, its element shows the modeling step, in which the normal functioning of the regional system is broken. According to this information, macro indicators can be identified, the most vulnerable to the applied control mechanism.
This results in general management effectiveness, reduces occurrence risks of crisis, critical and emergency situations. At the same time decrease in the financing of a number of regions does not lead to critical situations in the general system of the CFD.
The computational experiment gave the following results. Scenario 1 (C1). Decrease of region investment.
An example of a matrix of T-step threats in the implementation of the management scenario "Reducing investment in the Yaroslavl region" is shown in the table.
Reduction of investment in the region has a negative impact on the selected target macro indicators of the region «Ivanovo 514
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Matrix of T-step threats (the Yaroslavl region). С1
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socioeconomic systems in emergency control systems: models and methods. Avtom. And Rem. Cont., Vol.90. Part 2. No. 9, 1303-1320. Kononov (2001). Kononov D.A., Kosyachenko S.A., and Kul'ba V.V. A scenario methodology as connectability from strategy to operation in complex system /SIC Journal, V. 10, No 4. December 30, 2001. Kononov (2004). Kononov D.A., Kul’ba V.V, and Shubin A.N. Methodology of research of the efficiency of information control in social systems //IFAC Multitrack Conference on Advanced Control Strategies for Social and Economic Systems ACS’04. 2-4 Sept. 2004; ViennaUniversity of Technology, Austria. Final program & Abstract book, p 15. Kononov (2005). Kononov D.A., Kul’ba V.V, and Shubin A.N. Information management in socioeconomic systems: ethical aspects //IFAC World Congress, Volume 16. Part1. 2005; Prague, p. 2311. Kul’ba (2016). V. Kul’ba, L. Busk Kofoed, D. Kononov, O. Zaikin. Scenario Research of Complex Manufacturing Systems’ Vulnerability /Proceeding of the 8th IFAC Conference on Manufacturing Modelling, Management and Control (MIM 2016, Troyes, France). Troyes, France: IFAC, 2016. P. 400-405. Kul’ba (2017). Kul’ba V.V., Kononov D.A., Ponomarev R.O. A scenario research of the vulnerability of socioeconomic systems / Proceedings of the 10th International Conference "Management of Large-Scale System Development" (MLSD). Moscow: IEEE, 2017. http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8109648/. Lefebvre V.A. (1987). Lefebvre V.A The Fundamental Structures of Human Reflexion //Journal of Social and Biological Structures, 10 129 175. Metlov (2004). Metlov V.I. Brain and thought. The Revolution of Cognitive Sciences. Coordinated by J.-F. Dortier // Science and its methods on the eve of the century. Collection of scientific papers. – Moscow, 2004 (in Russian). Von Neumann J.A (1946). Von Neumann J.A model of general economic equilibrium //Rev. Econ. Studies. 13 1946. Pospelov (2001). Pospelov I.G. The Model of selection of behavior in socio-economic systems // Comp. Tr. Conf. "Modeling of social behavior" Moscow state University, (in Russian) http://www.ccas.ru/mmes/mmest/pospelov.html Roberts (1974). Roberts F.S. Weighted digraphs models for energy use and air pollution in transportation systems. /Rand Corporation Report R-1578-NSF, 1974. Shultz (2012). Models and methods for analyzing and synthesizing scenarios for the development of socioeconomic systems. Book 1, 2 /Edited by Corr. RAS Shultz V.L., Doctor of Technical Sciences, prof. Kul’ba V.V. Science, Moscow, 2012 (in Russian). Zadeh L. (1965). Zadeh L. A Fuzzy sets// Information and Control. 1965. V. 8, № 3. P. 338-353.
In particular, the following results were obtained for the Yaroslavl region: the group management scenario improves the target macro indicators "Standard of living", "Industrial complex" and "Ecology". CONCLUSION The difference between the proposed research methodology of the RSES from used one is that for the first time on the basis a uniform concept the general model of a research of group management mechanisms in social and economic systems is constructed. Properties and characteristics of efficiency application of group management mechanisms are considered and formalized. The proposed approach is represented rather productive for a complex research of the specified SES properties of various class and appointment. It allows realizing the offered technique in the intellectual systems of support of decision-making. REFERENCES Arkhipova (2011). Arkhipova N.I., Kononov D.A., Kulba V.V. Scenario study of socio-economic systems: the synthesis of optimal scenarios //Bulletin of the RSUH. – Moscow: RGGU. 2011. № 4 (66). Pp. 58-85 (in Russian). Chernov (2008). Chernov I.V., Kononov D.A., Kulba V.V. Research of influence of investments in internet on industrial potential of region. 9th IFAC Workshop on Intelligent Manufacturing Systems Szczecin, Poland, 910 October 2008. Harari (1965). Harari F., Norman R.Z., Cartwright D. Structural models: an introduction to the theory of directed graphs. N.Y.: John Wiley & Sons Inc., 1965. Kapitsa (1997). Kapitsa S.P., Kurdyumov S.P, Malinetsky G.G. Synergetics and forecasts of the future. Science, Moscow 1997 (in Russian). Kononov (1999). Kononov D.A., Kosyachenko S.A., and Kul’ba V.V. Analysis of scenarios of development of
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Group Group Management Management in in Social Social and and Economic Economic Systems: Systems: Research of Efficiencyinby Means CognitiveSystems: Analysis Group Management Social andofEconomic Research of Efficiencyinby Means CognitiveSystems: Analysis Group Management Social andofEconomic Research of Efficiency by Means of Cognitive Analysis Kul’ba, D. Kononov, I. Chernov, P. Ponomarev Research ofV. Efficiency by Means of Cognitive Analysis V. Kul’ba, D. Kononov, I. Chernov, P. Ponomarev
V. Kul’ba, D. Kononov, I. Chernov, P. Ponomarev V. Kul’ba, D. Kononov, I. Russian Chernov, P. Ponomarev Institute of Control Sciences of Academy of Sciences Institute of Control Sciences of Russian Academy of Sciences 65, Profsoyuznaya str., Moscow, 117806, Russia Institute Control Sciences Russian117806, AcademyRussia of Sciences 65,ofProfsoyuznaya str.,ofMoscow, Tel: (7-095) fax: (7-095) 334-89-59; Institute ofProfsoyuznaya Control 334-90-09 Sciences ofMoscow, Russian Academy of Sciences 65, str., 117806, Russia Tel: (7-095) 334-90-09 fax: (7-095) 334-89-59; e-mail: [email protected] 65, Profsoyuznaya str., Moscow, 117806, Russia Tel: (7-095) 334-90-09 fax: (7-095) 334-89-59; e-mail: [email protected] Tel: (7-095) 334-90-09 fax: (7-095) 334-89-59; e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: [email protected] Abstract. The main components of the cognitive scenario methodology of research of socio-economic Abstract. The main components of the cognitive scenario methodology of research of socio-economic systems are considered. A generalofmodel for researching themethodology mechanisms of management in socioof group Abstract. The main components the cognitive scenario research of socio-economic systems are considered. A general model for researching the mechanisms of group management in socioeconomicare systems is components constructed. The properties and performance characteristics ofmanagement theofapplication of the Abstract. The main of the cognitive scenario methodology research socio-economic systems considered. A general model for researching the mechanisms of group in economic systems is constructed. The properties and performance characteristics of the application socioof the mechanisms of group management areproperties considered andperformance formalized. Examples of comparative calculations systems are considered. A generalThe model for researching the mechanisms of group management in socioeconomic systems is constructed. and characteristics of the application of the mechanisms of group management are considered and formalized. Examples of comparative calculations of the effectiveness group management in theand regional systems of the central district of economic systems is of constructed. The properties performance characteristics of federal the application of the mechanisms of group management are considered and formalized. Examples of comparative calculations of the effectiveness of given. group management in the regional systems of the central federal district of the Russian Federation are mechanisms of group are considered formalized. of comparative calculations of the effectiveness ofmanagement group management in the and regional systemsExamples of the central federal district of the Russian Federation are given. of the effectiveness of group management in the regional systems of the central federal district of the Russian Federation are given. © 2018, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting bymodel, Elsevier socio-economic Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: cognitive scenario methodology, group management systems, Russian Federation are given. Keywords: cognitive scenario methodology, group management model, socio-economic systems, managementcognitive effectiveness, the Central Federal district ofmanagement the Russian Federation. Keywords: scenario methodology, groupof model, socio-economic systems, management effectiveness, the Central Federal district the Russian Federation. Keywords: cognitive scenario methodology, group management model, socio-economic systems, management effectiveness, the Central Federal district of the Russian Federation. management effectiveness, the Central Federal district of the Russian Federation. requiring a reference to its own opposite of this discipline" 1. INTRODUCTION requiring a reference to its own opposite of this discipline" [Metlov (2004)]. It was the difficulties modeling that 1. INTRODUCTION requiring a reference to not its own opposite ofof discipline" [Metlov (2004)]. It was not the difficulties ofthis modeling that 1. INTRODUCTION led to disappointment, but the use of traditional research a reference to not its own opposite ofofthis discipline" Studying the problems of Social development, scientists – requiring [Metlov (2004)]. It was the difficulties modeling that 1. INTRODUCTION to disappointment, but the use of traditional research Studying the problems of Social development, scientists – led methods, the lackItofwas a broad, interdisciplinary viewresearch of that the [Metlov (2004)]. not the difficulties of modeling representatives of humanitarian disciplines to describe the led to disappointment, but the use of traditional the lack of a broad, interdisciplinary view of the Studying the problems of Socialdisciplines development, scientiststhe– methods, representatives of humanitarian to describe problem [Kapitsa (1997)]. led to disappointment, but the use of traditional research processes most use standard means to of "dialectical" Studying problems of Social development, scientiststhe– methods, the lack(1997)]. of a broad, interdisciplinary view of the representatives ofoften humanitarian disciplines problem [Kapitsa processes the most often use standard means of describe "dialectical" the lack(1997)]. of a broad, interdisciplinary view of the logic, which provides a use widestandard arbitrariness to build a modelthe of methods, representatives of humanitarian disciplines to describe problem [Kapitsa processes most often means of "dialectical" presented work is part of a series of studies of the logic, which provides a wide arbitrariness to build a model of The problem [Kapitsa (1997)]. Society. At the same time applied mathematicians use strict The presented work is part of a series of studies of the processes oftenatime use standard means of "dialectical" logic, which provides wideapplied arbitrariness to build a use model of authors on the development methodology the formation Society. Atmost the same mathematicians strict The presented work partof a series offor of the means of mathematics and Informatics. Both concepts are authors on the development of of methodology forstudies the formation logic, which provides wide arbitrariness to build a use model of of social developmentisscenarios Society. the same atime mathematicians strict at different levels of of social means ofAtmathematics andapplied Informatics. Both concepts are The presented work is part of a series of studies the authors on the development of methodology for the formation currently going through a period of crisis. Society. At the same time applied mathematicians use strict of social development scenarios at different levels of social means ofgoing mathematics Informatics. The proposed methodology islevels based on the currently through aand period of crisis. Both concepts are stratification. authors on the development of methodology for the formation of social development scenarios at different of social The proposed methodology is based on the means ofgoing mathematics and Informatics. Both concepts are stratification. currently through a period of crisis. principles of interdisciplinary cognitive analysis, which of social development scenarios at differentis levels social It is thought that the study of complex systems leads beyond stratification. proposed methodology basedofon the of The interdisciplinary cognitive analysis, which currently going a period of crisis. It is thought thatthrough the study of complex systems leads beyond principles allows us toof consider the problem from different points of stratification. The proposed methodology is based on the applicability of the empirical method, which provided the principles interdisciplinary cognitive analysis, which us to consider the problem from different points the of It thought thatofthethestudy of complex systems beyond theisapplicability empirical method, which leads provided the allows view and apply the methods of research of the spectrum of principles interdisciplinary cognitive analysis, which triumph of natural Sciences the lastsystems 300 years. For this It thought thatofthethe study ofin leads beyond us apply toof consider the problem from of different points of view and the methods of research the spectrum theisapplicability empirical method, which provided the allows of triumph of natural Sciences incomplex the last 300 years. For this related scientific disciplines: Humanities, natural, use allows us to consider the problem from different points of reason, much of the progress in last describing social the applicability of the empirical method, which provided the view andscientific apply the disciplines: methods of research of thenatural, spectrumuse of triumph of natural Sciences in the 300 years. For and this related Humanities, reason, much of the progress in describing social and mathematical models and methods. andscientific apply the disciplines: methods of research of thenatural, spectrumuse of biological is farprogress lessinthan progress insocial describing triumph ofprocesses natural Sciences theinthe last 300 years. For and this view related Humanities, reason, much of the describing mathematical models and methods. biological processes is far all lessthe than the progress in describing related scientific disciplines: Humanities, natural, use non-living nature, despite efforts made during the 20th reason, much of despite the inthedescribing and mathematical models andresearch methods.is to create a device for the biological processes is farprogress lessthe than progress insocial describing The main purpose of the non-living nature, all efforts made during the 20th mathematical models andresearch methods.is to create a device for the and 21st centuries. The main purpose of the biological processes is far less than the progress in describing non-living nature, despite all the efforts made during the 20th study of synergistic obvious managerial influence, and 21st centuries. The main purpose of (without the research is to create a device for the study of synergistic (without obvious managerial influence, non-living nature, despite all the efforts made during the 20th and 21st centuries. self-development in accordance with the known The main purpose of (without the research is to create a device for the A good model can give a reasonable forecast in its area of spontaneous study of synergistic obvious managerial influence, and 21st centuries. self-development in accordance with the (with knowna A good model can give a reasonable forecast in its area of spontaneous or unknown objective Laws ofobvious Nature) and attractive study of synergistic (without managerial influence, competence, provided that the existing socio-economic spontaneous self-development in accordance with the known unknown objective Laws of Nature) and attractive (with a A good modelprovided can give that a reasonable forecast in its area of or competence, the existing subjectobjective of management, pursuing specific goal)a spontaneous accordance with the (with known relations are maintained, detect threats tosocio-economic the A good model can give that acan reasonable forecast in established its area of clear or unknown Laws of in Nature) and aaattractive clear subjectself-development of management, pursuing specific goal) competence, provided the existing relations are maintained, can detect threats tosocio-economic the established behavior of complex systems. This formalized apparatus, or unknown Laws of Nature) and aattractive (with order, but it can not say what will order after the behavior competence, provided that the replace existing clear subject of management, pursuing specific goal)a of objective complex systems. This formalized apparatus, relations maintained, can detect threatsthis tosocio-economic the established order, butare it can not say what will replace this order after the including theoretical and practical aspects ofspecific the apparatus, proposed clear subject of management, pursuing a goal) crisis. but Evolution is asay creation of the world, i.e. a established process of behavior relations are maintained, can detect threats to the of complex systems. This formalized order, it can not what will replace this order after the theoretical and practical aspects of the proposed crisis. Evolution is a creation of the world, i.e. a process of including problem, could be synthesized on the basis of integration of behavior of complex systems. This formalized apparatus, purely creative [Pospelov (2005)]. of integration order, it can[Pospelov not what will replace this after the theoretical and practical aspects the proposed crisis. Evolution is asay creation of the world, i.e.order a process of including problem, could be synthesized on the basis of of purely but creative (2005)]. currently disparate components of scientific knowledge of including theoretical and practical aspects of the proposed crisis. Evolution is a creation of the world, i.e. a process of problem, could be synthesized onofthescientific basis of knowledge integration of currently disparate components purely creative [Pospelov (2005)]. of Similar frustrations consciously philosophical science. problem, control theory, computer science, applied mathematics, could be synthesized on the basis of integration of currently disparate components of scientific knowledge purely creative [Pospelov (2005)]. philosophical science. control theory, computer science, applied mathematics, of Similar frustrations consciously Interdisciplinary methodologies are actively involved in the synergetics, a number of Humanities. disparate components of scientific of control theory, computer science, applied knowledge mathematics, Similar frustrations consciously philosophical Interdisciplinary methodologies are actively involvedscience. in the currently synergetics, a number of Humanities. field of research, each consciously of whichare offers its own models and Similar frustrations philosophical science. control theory, computer science, applied mathematics, synergetics, a number of Humanities. Interdisciplinary methodologies actively involved in the field of research, each of which offers its own models and Theoretically, this synthesis will allow us to comprehend, methods of research. Among them there aremodels cognitive, Interdisciplinary methodologies actively involved in and the Theoretically, synergetics, a number of Humanities. this synthesis will allow us to comprehend, field of research, each of whichare offers its own methods of research. Among them there are cognitive, understand, accept "put into synergetic and quantum-like methodologies. field of research, each of which offers its own models and this and synthesis willoperation" allow usthe to contemporary comprehend, understand, accept and "put into operation" the contemporary methods of Among them there are cognitive, Theoretically, synergetic andresearch. quantum-like methodologies. achievements of science, as a necessary condition for the Theoretically, this synthesis will allow us to comprehend, methods of research. Among them there are cognitive, understand, accept and "put into operation" the contemporary of science, as a necessary condition for the synergetic quantum-like methodologies. Cognitive and Sciences are an interdisciplinary cluster of achievements survival and development of Mankind. At the same time, is understand, accept and "put into operation" the contemporary synergetic quantum-like methodologies. of science, of asMankind. a necessary condition for it Cognitive and Sciences are an interdisciplinary cluster of achievements survival and development At the same time, itthe is interrelated disciplinesare whose subject areas overlapcluster partially. extremely important: to integrate them into a single science, achievements of science, as a necessary condition for the Cognitive Sciences an interdisciplinary of and development of Mankind. thea same it is interrelated disciplines whose subject areas overlap partially. survival extremely important: to integrate them At into singletime, science, According to one of the existing points of view, in calling for help theto methodology various scientific Cognitive interdisciplinary of and development of Mankind. At the it is interrelated disciplines whose subject areas overlap partially. extremely important: integrate themof into a same singletime, science, According Sciences to one ofare thean existing points of cluster view, in survival calling for help the methodology of various scientific cognitology is one realized "synthesis of special scientific branches, thereby creating a "unified field theory" of the interrelated disciplines whose subject areas overlap partially. extremely important: to integrate them into a single science, calling for help the methodology of various scientific According to of the existing points of view, in cognitology is realized "synthesis of special scientific branches, thereby creating a "unified field theory" of the disciplines, which in of their own development have community ana "unified expedient process ofofselfAccording tois one existing points of reached view, inaa human calling help creating theand offield various scientific branches,for thereby theory" the cognitology realized "synthesis of special scientific disciplines, which in theirthe own development have reached human community andmethodology an expedient process of selfcertain limit, beyond which there is an inevitable crisis, government. cognitology is realized "synthesis of special scientific branches, thereby creating a "unified field theory" of the human community and an expedient process of selfdisciplines, which in their own development have reached a certain limit, beyond which there is an inevitable crisis, government. disciplines, which in their ownthere development have reached community and an expedient process of selfcertain limit, beyond which is an inevitable crisis,a human government. certain limit, which there is an inevitable government. 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main social objects, social structures and describe on this basis various social processes.
Such a device would allow to make a breakthrough in the study of both synergistic and attractive description of social development and to start the direct creation of means of its effective Design [Kononov (1999), (2001), (2005), Kul’ba (2016)]. The aim of the research is to create the foundations of the automation system of social design [Shultz (2012)].
The combination of the system-logical and structural-social approaches makes it possible to research human activity as the main driving factor for the socio-economic system development, considering it as a structured spectrum of formalized processes of changing the states of socioeconomic objects and actors.
2. MAIN COMPONENTS OF THE COGNITIVE SCENARIO METHODOLOGY
Scenario approach assumes the research of processes occurring in socio-economic systems, based on the construction and research of behavior scenarios (synergistic scenarios) of social actors and management scenarios (attractive scenarios) by social objects.
The research of behavior and the search for effective mechanisms to control complex systems are quite complex and at the same time important tasks. In the development of specific action plans for programme-specific management, it is necessary to conduct extensive research on the socioeconomic system (SES), aimed at identifying and analyzing crisis trends and ensuring sustainable development in the market and expanding globalization.
The combination of system-logical, structural-social and scenario approaches allows researching multifaceted problems, subjecting to scenario analysis and synthesizing behavior scenarios of various social actors of action, and moving to the creation of a security system for a given social object, social structure or social process.
The task is to develop formalized statements, as well as methods of for searching and analyzing of alternative development options in terms of event-based presentation of the situation under uncertainty. The methodology of scenario research of complex systems satisfies these criteria.
For effectively research of information management [Kononov (2004)], it is proposed to use the informationlogical approach that the description and research of information objects is based on the formation of information sets that support the functioning of given formal system objects on the stratified varieties under consideration. The main concepts used are «formal informational system», «informational connection», «informational potential», «and informational field », «informational action».
The initial positions of the ideas on the creation of criteria and methods for the research of the Socium as a socioeconomic system in the scenario methodology are grouped according to the following dimensions: – the concept of approaches to the research of the socioeconomic system,
The introduction of the formal concept of « informational action» [Shultz (2012)] allows us to offer formalized ways of describing the behavior strategies of action subjects in various situations of information interaction.
– the concept of the principles of functioning and development, – the forms and ways of transforming the society, – informatization and automation.
The combination of the system and information-logical approaches allows researching the procedures for the formation, transformation and use of information as formal processes of changing information states (internal, external and extended) of formal system objects [Kononov (2005), Cherrnov (2008)].
The philosophical foundations, principles and concept of cognitive research of SES suggest the integration of systemlogical, structural-social, information-logical and scenario approaches. Taking into account these dimensions of global social interaction allows us to formulate the main problems, principles and mechanisms of research in the modern world, as well as put them into practice on the basis of modern means of communication and achievements of computer science.
The combination of the system-logical, structural-social and information-logical approaches makes it possible to research informational influences and impacts in social systems, considering them as formalized processes of changing informational states of social objects and actors, including individual and collective actions of people, taking into account the circumstances in which is the process of management. Such a synthesis allows us to consider the informational behavior (development) of the socio-economic system as a whole, as well as its individual elements.
The system-logical approach involves the description and study of objects of research from the standpoint of system analysis, which is based on the concept of "formal system object". This will allow studying objects and processes from the point of view of formal logical and mathematical methods.
The combination of system-logical, structural-social, information-logical and scenario approaches allows one to research multidimensional informational problems, to analyze and synthesize scenarios of rational informational behavior of various social subjects of action, and, ultimately, to create an informational security system for a given social
Structural and social approach involves the description and study of socio-economic objects of management based on the definition and structuring of human activities. This should allow studying the objects and processes in social systems on different strata of social structure of society, highlighting the
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object, social structure or social process, in conditions of conducting complex informational interaction.
the tasks of operational, tactical and strategic management of functioning and development of SES are considered.
In the works [Kononov (1999, 2001), Kul'ba (2016, 2017), Shultz (2012)] are proposed the cognitive methodology of the research. It allows creating descriptions of the behavior and development of socio-economic systems in the form of formalized scenarios over a certain time interval in the conditions of resource, financial, social, and political and other types of restrictions. Its essence is the fact that the scenario of SES behavior is a successive stage of system development, each of which has its own peculiarities and specific features.
Group management is a joint (coordinated) decision-making and implementation-related management of a group of objects (development factors), i.e. a set of taken and realized decisions in relation to the allocated group of factors: objects, phenomena and processes in SES. Currently, the methods of group management are used mainly in a number of technical systems (machines control and robots), logistics, aircraft, etc. However, formalized researches are insignificant in organizational and socioeconomic systems.
In accordance with the goals and criteria of development periodization at each stage problems identified that need to be solved. The formalized procedure for generating scenarios allows constructing and analyzing of alternative development variants, i.e. to carry out a scenario analysis of the system's behavior, and also to select a rational scenario in accordance with the specified settings of decision-makers.
Development of analysis tools and optimal synthesis of scenarios of group management requires: – formation of objects models of group management; carrying out classification and formalization of methods; – determination of properties, both of separate objects and their joint characteristics;
The present system analysis apparatus researches the problems and dynamics of the complex large-scale systems development, provides consideration of a variety of alternative solutions, each of which is described by a sufficiently large number of variables, allows to take into account the risks of various types, to develop effective solutions in conditions of limited time and resources.
– determination of optimality criteria, as well as conditions for the realization of group management. The group management model MG in the socio-economic system S can be specified in various ways. Select the following components: МG(S)={S; A; C; z; O; Act, u; p; ξ; , MD(S), МE},
The methodological apparatus of the formalized scenario research contains a number of basic components: models and methods of scenario analysis, the basis of scenario calculus and models and methods of scenario synthesis. The basis of the research is the scheme for the formation of scenarios.
where S – designation of the system under research, yEm – phase variables of s system S,
The typology of applied systems proposed in [Arkhipova (2011)] makes it possible to structure the SES and research its subsystems using the method of formalized scenario research. Experience in the development of various scenario systems shows that already at the level of classification one can highlight a number of their characteristic structural features. You can group them according to the characteristics that determine the unique properties and relationships between the indicators of the selected classification group. Further, using various formal characteristics, as well as operations in the scenario spaces under consideration, it is possible to conduct an effective analysis and carry out the synthesis of optimal development scenarios, and thus construct an optimal scenario of the transformations.
xEk – environment variables, z=(x, y) – extended phase variables of the s system S, O={O(i), i=1,…,nO} – control objects, Act={Ac(i), i=1,…,nA} – control subjects, A – control objectives, C – control strategy, u = (u(i), i=1,…,d) – control actions, p = (p(i), i=1,…,h) – control resources, ξ – types (models) of uncertainty taken into account,
Thus, the proposed integration of interdisciplinary knowledge allows in a new light to present the processes of modeling and the formation of effective management technique in SES.
=[tн, tк] – control horizon, MD (S) – behavior model of the S system,
3. RESEARCH OF EFFICIENCY OF APPLICATION OF GROUP MANAGEMENT
МE={f, C, ξ} – model for evaluating the effectiveness of management strategies,
The offered methodology has a set of appendices [Shultz. (2012)]. In the present section methods of a research of efficiency of application of group management for solving
f – a set of characteristics of the behavior scenario. It is possible to classify group management by various signs: classification groups of control objects; decision-making 512
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time; criteria for the consistency of management; comparative characteristics of the control object; applied methods of control, etc. In particular, the concepts of parallel and sequential, synchronous and asynchronous, periodic and aperiodic, in-phase and other types of group control can be defined for the components of the model. The definition of the group management model in the system allows us to proceed to a description of the dynamics of control and the formation of scenarios for the functioning of the researched system [Shultz. (2012)].
alternative scenarios constructed.
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for
changing
the
situation
are
In this paper the characteristic «T-step threat» is used as a criterion of management effectiveness. Such criterion characterizes the occurrence time of undesirable phenomena in a regional system when this management mechanism is applied. In the Institute of Control Sciences of Russian of sciences the calculations were carried out on cognitive models (graph of pairwise relationships of macro indicators of the region development) of the RSES of Ivanovo, Kostroma, Vladimir and Yaroslavl regions of the Central Federal district (CFD).
Generation of such scenarios can be carried out automatically according to the scheme proposed earlier. Control objects. As the control objects are considered the regional socio-economic systems (RSES) of the Russian Federation.
This section is given an analysis of the effectiveness of group management using the «Yaroslavl region» model as an example, obtained on the basis of a computational experiment.
Control subjects (CS). The subjects of the Act are Federal or regional subjects of action that make decisions on changing the functioning or structural parameters of the RSES interaction.
The main objective of the research is to a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of scenarios for the region development under various variant for decision-making.
Control actions are impulse, structural and complex actions.
Stage 1. A design of regional development model.
1) Impulse control actions are legal change of RSES parameters values;
The region model includes 34 basic macroeconomic parameters: 1. Physical volume of production. 2. Investments level. 3. Production costs. 4. Price level. 5. Money supply. 6. Technological progress. 7. Work productivity level. 8. Employment level. 9. Standard of living. 10. Social programs volume. 11. Level of the shadow economy. 12. Level of tax rates. 13. Budget. 14. Macroeconomic risk. 15. External factors of development. 16. Level of an industrial complex development. 17. Level of an agricultural complex development. 18. Tourist complex. 19. Housing and communal services. 20. Demography level. 21. Education level. 22. Culture level. 23. Construction level. 24. Transport and logistics complex. 25. Level of an ecological situation. 26. Level of small and medium-sized businesses development. 27. Level of health care. 28. Consumer market. 29. Qualification of employees. 30. Wear of material resources. 31. External economic activity. 32. Domestic gross product per capita. 33. Physical health level of the population. 34. Real income level.
2) Structural control actions are legal change of RSES interaction rules; 3) Complex control actions are a set of impulse and structural control actions. Control goals are represented state defined of objects or development direction as a result of the implementation of management decisions. As control objectives are considered a reach of the values of the target vector a and the chosen direction b. A target vector a is the desired set of values for macroeconomic and social parameters; vector b characterizes the desired direction of their development. Control strategy. Control strategies are technique of implementing impacts depending on the condition. Uncertainty model. Models of uncertainty can be considered: deterministic, probabilistic, game-playing, fuzzy, reflective [Von Neumann J. A (1946), Zadeh L. (1965), Lefebvre V.A. (1987)].
As an example, in Fig. 1 the deterministic cognitive graph model of the Yaroslavl region is presented. When constructing graph models of other regions, specific social and economic characteristics of each region are taken into account.
The following methods for group management are considered: a centralized control is an influence which is carried out by the only CS; a distributed control is an impact realized by several CS; a periodic control is an impact on a group of selected objects with a defined periodicity in time.
Stage 2. A choice of significant development indicators. For modeling have been chosen managed development macro indicators: volume of Federal, regional and private investments; volume of social programs; level of tax rates; target development macro indicators: standard of living; level of health care; level of an ecological situation, level of an industrial complex development; level of an agricultural complex development; level of small and medium-sized businesses development. Above-mentioned factors are presented on the cognitive graph models of the chosen
The concentrated control is an impact on the selected object O (it is used as an alternative to a group management in the model of comparing their efficiency. A widespread scheme for dynamic model creation of regional development is the construction of a cognitive map [Harari (1965), Roberts (1974)] of regions development. Then 513
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regions: corresponding vertices; logical connections (link); length of a way from a control vertices to a target vertices; presence of contours opposing a parameters deviation in perturbing impact; presence of contours reinforcing a parameters deviation in a disturbance.
region» and region «Kostroma region» and affects slightly (on a given horizon of the scenario) on the macro indicators «level of health care» and «standard of living) of the region «Vladimirovsky region» and «Kostroma region». A certain economic situation is in each region if financing is insufficient. This is due to the following factors: different geographical location; historical development; trade and industrial relations; the presence of potentially dangerous objects of infrastructure; transport accessibility; professional training (availability of universities, etc.); investment attractiveness (availability of natural resources, etc.). This is due to the following factors: different geographical location; historical development; trade and industrial relations; presence of potentially dangerous objects of infrastructure; transport accessibility; professional training (availability of universities, etc.); investment attractiveness (availability of natural resources, etc.).
Fig.1. The graph model of the Yaroslavl region.
Scenario 2 (C2). Reducing the costs of social programs.
Stage 3. A choice of significant development indicators.
Cut in expenditure on social programs leads to significant deviation from target regime of functioning for these macro indicators of the regions «Vladimirovskaya region», «Kostroma region» and «Yaroslavl region» and affects slightly (on a given horizon of the scenario) on the macro indicators («level of health care», «standard of living ») of the «Ivanovo region».
For modeling have been chosen managed development macro indicators: volume of Federal, regional and private investments; volume of social programs; level of tax rates; target development macro indicators: standard of living; level of health care; level of an ecological situation, level of an industrial complex development; level of an agricultural complex development; level of small and medium-sized businesses development.
Scenario 3 (C3). Increase in the level of tax rates. Increase in level of tax rates leads to degradation in all indicators of target macroeconomic indicators of «Vladimir region» and «Yaroslavl region» and influences slightly (on a given horizon of the scenario) on the macro indicators («level of health care», «standard of living ») on the macro indicators of the region «Kostroma region».
Above-mentioned factors are presented on the cognitive graph models of the chosen regions: corresponding vertices; logical connections (link); length of a way from a control vertices to a target vertices; presence of contours opposing a parameters deviation in perturbing impact; presence of contours reinforcing a parameters deviation in a disturbance. Stage 4. A choice of control actions.
Scenario 4 (C4). Joint allocation of available resources to social programs and public investment.
As control actions are considered: reduction of investment level in the region; reduction of spending on social programs; increase in the level of tax rates; investment target financing of the CFD cluster. Each control mechanism produces a control scenario of the RSES.
For the model of the Yaroslavl region the following results were obtained: the chosen scenario, constructed with group management, improves the target macro indicators «Standard of living», «Level of an industrial complex development» and «Level of an ecological situation».
Stage 5. A choice the indicator of management effectiveness.
At the same time, a joint distribution of available resources (investment target financing of a cluster of the CFD – group management of development) is carried out so that to compensate insufficient economic development significant indicators of regions within the solution of general optimization task.
The matrix of T-step threats was considered as an indicator of efficiency. For each studied scenario of threat realization or given control, its element shows the modeling step, in which the normal functioning of the regional system is broken. According to this information, macro indicators can be identified, the most vulnerable to the applied control mechanism.
This results in general management effectiveness, reduces occurrence risks of crisis, critical and emergency situations. At the same time decrease in the financing of a number of regions does not lead to critical situations in the general system of the CFD.
The computational experiment gave the following results. Scenario 1 (C1). Decrease of region investment.
An example of a matrix of T-step threats in the implementation of the management scenario "Reducing investment in the Yaroslavl region" is shown in the table.
Reduction of investment in the region has a negative impact on the selected target macro indicators of the region «Ivanovo 514
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Matrix of T-step threats (the Yaroslavl region). С1
С2
С3
С4
Standard of living
50
6
9
10
Level of an industrial complex development
11
7
11
12
Level of small and medium-sized businesses development
8
11
8
11
Level of health care
50
7
10
50
Level of an ecological situation
7
14
12
14
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In particular, the following results were obtained for the Yaroslavl region: the group management scenario improves the target macro indicators "Standard of living", "Industrial complex" and "Ecology". CONCLUSION The difference between the proposed research methodology of the RSES from used one is that for the first time on the basis a uniform concept the general model of a research of group management mechanisms in social and economic systems is constructed. Properties and characteristics of efficiency application of group management mechanisms are considered and formalized. The proposed approach is represented rather productive for a complex research of the specified SES properties of various class and appointment. It allows realizing the offered technique in the intellectual systems of support of decision-making. REFERENCES Arkhipova (2011). Arkhipova N.I., Kononov D.A., Kulba V.V. Scenario study of socio-economic systems: the synthesis of optimal scenarios //Bulletin of the RSUH. – Moscow: RGGU. 2011. № 4 (66). Pp. 58-85 (in Russian). Chernov (2008). Chernov I.V., Kononov D.A., Kulba V.V. Research of influence of investments in internet on industrial potential of region. 9th IFAC Workshop on Intelligent Manufacturing Systems Szczecin, Poland, 910 October 2008. Harari (1965). Harari F., Norman R.Z., Cartwright D. Structural models: an introduction to the theory of directed graphs. N.Y.: John Wiley & Sons Inc., 1965. Kapitsa (1997). Kapitsa S.P., Kurdyumov S.P, Malinetsky G.G. Synergetics and forecasts of the future. Science, Moscow 1997 (in Russian). Kononov (1999). Kononov D.A., Kosyachenko S.A., and Kul’ba V.V. Analysis of scenarios of development of
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