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Hard times in 19th-century Sweden: A comment
EXPLORATIONS
IN ECONOMIC
HISTORY
26, 477-491 (1989)
Hard Times in 1Sth-Century Sweden: A Comment* JOHAN SGDERBERG Department
of Economic History, University of Stockholm
An alternative interpretation, the growth/workload hypothesis, is given to counter the recent argument by Sandberg and Steckel (1988, Explorations in Economic History 25, l-19) on overpopulation and malnutrition in Sweden around the mid-19th century. This explains the joint behavior of agrarian growth and labor demand, poverty, side employment, and nutrition within a regional framework. The mid-19th century is seen as a transitional period which succeeded remarkably well in avoiding pauperization despite strong population growth. 0 1989 Academic
Press, Inc.
INTRODUCTION
In a recent article, L. G. Sandberg and R. N. Steckel (1988) argue that a decline in heights of males provides indications of overpopulation and malnutrition in western Sweden around the mid-19th century. Primarily, they use data on the heights of Swedish soldiers; secondarily, they base their argument on child mortality and rural real wage data.’ They arrive at a more pessimistic view of the period than most other researchers have in recent years. * I thank Rolf Adamson, Gunnar ArtCus, Sture Martinius, and Janken Myrdal for their comments on an earlier version of this paper. ’ In their analysis of human height data, Sandberg and Steckel do not explicitly face the methodological questions involved in generalizing from the sample of recruits to the population of the various regions. Factors affecting the supply as well as the demand of recruits need to be considered. On the supply side, it cannot be taken for granted that the military sample always was a random sample out of the young males (above the minimum height). Changing labor market prospects may have affected recruitment. This could happen if, for instance, increased demand for civilian labor over time was to offer more attractive employment alternatives than did military service. In the extreme case, the strongest and tallest males would be better rewarded outside the military sector, making the shorter increasingly overrepresented among the recruits. On the demand side, the differential growth of the military apparatus in the various regions should be made clear. Stronger growth in one region should have tended to lower average heights as the supply was incieasingly exhausted. Sandberg and Steckel obviously assume supply and demand factors to have been unchanged over time. 477 0014-4983189 $3.00 Copyright 0 1989 by Academic Press, Inc. All rights of reproduction in any form reserved.
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JOHAN SijDERBERG
Sandberg and Steckel divide Sweden into four major regions: East, West, North, and Stockholm. Western Sweden stands out as the only region exhibiting a marked decline in the heights of recruits (as the 18181837 and 1838-1856 birth cohorts are compared). In the East and North, on the other hand, heights are improving, and in Stockholm there is practically no change. It should be stressed that the West includes not only western Sweden but also the southern and southeastern parts. The argument here is based into two parts. First, there are other types of data relevant to the problem, not considered by Sandberg and Steckel. Their reading of modern Swedish research is highly selective, no major work published in Swedish being quoted. Information on regional economic growth as well as technological and social change should be taken into account. Second, we outline an alternative interpretation, the growth/workload hypothesis. This interpretation attempts to explain the joint behavior of agricultural growth and labor demand, poverty, protoindustrial activity, and nutrition. The first of these data sets reported, refer to poverty measurements. Second, work on economic growth in the agricultural sector around the mid-19th century is mentioned by Sandberg and Steckel who, however, cite only a single figure on the average national growth rate. The fairly rich information available on regional variation is not exploited. Third, we refer to recent studies of technological and social change in the agricultural economy of western Sweden which are not mentioned by Sandberg and Steckel. POVERTY DATA Lundsjii (1975) and Soderberg (1978, 1982) studied the incidence of poverty by means of fiscal records. Part of the population was exempted from taxes because of their poverty. According to the assessments by the tax authorities, these people were simply regarded as too poor to pay any personal tax at all. Some of these personal taxes were quite low in money terms. Therefore we can, in principle, regard this segment of the population as comprising those who lacked any economic resource above subsistence. This section of the population often fell between 15 and 30%, with interesting temporal and regional variations. During the second quarter of the 19th century, the West was characterized by a fairly constant incidence of poverty. The same applies to the East (Table 2). Poverty was shifting toward the southeast and toward the northernmost parts of Sweden. The most marked improvements took place in the western and southernmost counties. The West’s position was not deteriorating relative to the national average. These data do not suggest that the experience of the West was much worse than that of the East.
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For the West taken as a whole, poverty time series are not available except for a few years. Several county series can be presented, though. Table 1 reports poverty ratios with 5-year intervals in six counties that are part of the West.’ In five out of the six counties there is simply no upward trend in poverty.3 In the counties of alvsborg, Skaraborg, and Halland, there is rather some downward tendency. On the other hand Blekinge, a small county with many marginal landholdings, displays an unfavorable poverty trend. In the 1850s and 1860s poverty figures in Blekinge clearly surpass those of the West as a whole. The most likely explanation is that cultivation into marginal areas had proceeded further than elsewhere. Small peasants and crofters were reaching the limits of cultivation. To find evidence of rising poverty we should look at the North rather than at the West or the East. The North was the most sparsely populated part of Sweden, though population growth was very strong around the mid19th century. Rapid population growth seems to have had the double effect of promoting per capita agricultural growth while at the same time being associated with upward tendencies in poverty.4 Colonization of marginal lands was a feature of the North as well as of the West, but in the North these lands were primarily used for animal production. AGRARIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH One of the most important conclusions that can be drawn from the data presented by Martinius (1970a, 1970b) is that of a positive rather than negative association between per capita agricultural growth rate and population growth from the 1830s to the 1860s.5 Let us for the purposes of a broad overview accept the regional division. by Sandberg and Steckel. In the East, then, both population grawth and per capita agrarian growth were relatively small. In the West and North, on the other hand, strong population growth went hand in hand with agricultural growth rates, exceeding those observed in the East. Table 2 summarizes the evidence on population growth, agrarian economic growth, and change in the level of poverty. ’ Note that the counties of Malmiihus and Kristianstad together form Scania, the southernmost province, and that Blekinge is part of southeastern Sweden. For poverty maps see Soderberg (1982). 3 The peak years reflect poor harvests, for instance in some counties in 1831. 4 The r, correlation between population growth at the county level and percentage change in poverty I8261851 is clearly positive, 0.51. Unlike what Sandberg and Steckel seem to suggest, the West was not the area of outstanding population pressure. The fact that population growth as well as poverty change was more unfavorable in North does not conform well to the regional pattern of shifts in human heights. ’ At the county level, providing 23 observations, the rm correlation is 0.48 between rural population growth and per capita agricultural growth. The growth in agricultural productivity is stressed also by Magnusson (1983, 1986).
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TABLE 1 Poverty Ratios in Selected West Counties: Rural Areas 1826-1866 Year
Ib;lvsborg
Skaraborg
Halland
1826 1831 1836 1841 1846 1851 1856 1861 1866
24.9 25.3 22.5 20.4 19.8 20.9 20.9 21.5 19.5
23.6 25.3 21.5 23.2 23.1 22.7 22.3 21.0 18.4
21.7 25.6 20.2 20.8 18.6 19.4 20.0 19.5 16.6
Malmohus 17.6 16.7 16.3 16.6 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.5 14.8
Kristianstad
Blekinge 18.6 21.1 18.2 19.0 24.1 25.6 26.7 25.2 29.0
18.2 16.9 19.0 18.4 16.2 16.0 17.1 18.5 18.5
Sources. Lundsjo, 1975, pp. 90, 103; Siiderberg, 1978, p. 39. Note. The poverty ratio is defined as the percentage of those exempted from all taxes to total population liable to pay taxes. It thus measures poverty only within the adult population.
Should we expect a direct link between the growth of agricultural wage labor and downward pressure on nutritional standards? Probably not. Agricultural wage labor was most widespread in the East with its larger farms and estates, not in the West as Sandberg and Steckel seem to think. Proletarianization in the form of wage labor, thus, was most pronounced in the most well-to-do regions, especially in the Lake Malaren Valley. The West, on the other hand, was characterized by increasingly sub-
TABLE 2 Rural Population Growth 1830-1860 (Annual Average), per Capita Agrarian Economic Growth (Annual Average l833-1862), and Percentage Poor by Region in 1826 and 1851 (Weighted by 1850 Rural Population)
Region West East North Sweden
Population growth 0.93 0.52 1.39 0.86
Poor
Agrarian growth
1826
1851
0.75 0.28 0.88 0.62
22.2 20.4 20.4 21.2
22.1 20.1 24.5 21.7
Sources. Martinius, 1970b, p. 28 (population and agrarian growth); Lundsjii, 175, pp. 90,103; Siiderberg, 1978, p. 39 (poverty). Population weights according to Historiskstatistik far Sverige 1, 1955, p. 9. Note. The counties of Grebro and Kopparberg, which cannot as a whole be placed within the East/West regional classification, are not included.
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divided farms and extensive land reclamations6 Many regions in the West were dominated by small landowners, and cottage industries providing supplemental incomes were expanding. Unlike the East, where unrestricted and high population mobility should have made it difficult for landowners to intensify exploitation of their labor force, economic trends in the West may well have promoted increasing self-exploitation among small farmers and crofters.7 Common Ricardian theory would predict diminishing returns at the extensive as well as at the intensive margin of cultivation (see, e.g., the modern but basically Ricardian argument of Boserup (1965); also Samuelson (1978)). In order to maintain subsistence levels in the face of rapid population growth, small cultivators were gradually taking increasingly marginal lands into use.* In this labor-intensive process, more work hours had to be spent producing basic necessities.g We label this the growth/workload hypothesis, emphasizing that agricultural growth and 6 On land clearings in two inland counties of the West (Jiinkoping och Kronoberg), see Karlsson (1978). During the first half of 19th century the cultivated area rose by 70% and population by about 50%. Even in these counties that comprise large areas of marginal lands the growth in acreage thus exceeded population growth. The almost inconceivable amount of work laid down into these reclamations has impressed many later observers, e.g., Fries (1963, pp. 38-41). He describes how land reclamation forced the peasant or crofter to carry away thousands upon thousands of heavy burdens of stone from the small plots in marginal and forest areas, a land of gray stone. In many places it was not possible to get through the stony plots with a horse and a plough; everything had to be done manually. 7 It seems that large-scale agriculture was at a disadvantage relative to family-based peasant agriculture around the mid-19thcentury. The manorial economy of the East was stagnating, though at a relatively high level. Part of the difficulties of large-scale farming may be due to the problems of supervising the workforce. These problems should have been less serious within small-scale peasant farming which relied primarily on family labor. It was more feasible to strengthen self-exploitation in the West than to exert more control over the proletarianized workforce of the East. An indirect indication of this is that manors in the East often preferred labor inputs in the form of daywork from peasants and crofters rather than employing a substantial workforce of landless laborers. For discussions of aspects of the labor process and supervision under unmechanized conditions see Jonsson (1980, pp. 169-178), K611 (1983, pp. 186-198), Magnusson (1982), Martinius (1987, p. 181182). * The spread of oats cultivation in the West initially produced high yields, but land tended to deteriorate after relatively short periods (Martinius, 1970a, pp. 99-102, 1984, chap. 3). 9 This view is more pessimistic than that of Magnusson (1983, pp. 16-20). He suggests that land was not subject to diminishing returns in the period 1750-1860. The newly reclaimed land may have yielded as much as, or perhaps even more, than land already in use. To support this optimistic interpretation he cites various figures on rising yields ratios (the amount harvested to the amount sown) during the period. These data, however, refer to uncertain estimates and do not separate the old acreage from the new. Nor are labor inputs taken into account.
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higher work activity are two sides of the same process during this largely unmechanized phase. Workloads in the West may have grown heavier for two connected reasons. The first is the shift toward arable production, involving more intensive work on existing plots as well as on large land reclamations and leading to more heavy physical work.” The second is growing demand for labor from the lower strata, which may well have produced a higher number of workdays over the year. Human energy consumption per capita then should have grown partly due to more intensive work per hour, partly due to more hours worked a year. As labor demand increased it is possible that underemployment was reduced. Schijn (1985a) finds such a growth in the number of yearly workdays in lower strata likely on the basis of an analysis of relative prices and consumption patterns. A likely effect of the growing demand for unskilled rural labor would be that the labor of family members other than the breadwinner was used to a greater extent than before.” We can, then, expect greater demands on food supplies to sustain the labor force. It is perfectly possible that the marginal adaptations we see in the West during a certain period generated a more unfavorable balance between energy intake and the amount of labor produced. Even if per capita food consumption remained at previous levels, it may have been insufficient to outweight fully the growth in workloads. Certainly children were not excluded from farm labor, and demands on their labor inputs may have grown. The workload hypothesis has an interesting parallel in the case of Stockholm. In some respects demographic conditions were deteriorating in the capitol shortly before 1850. Maternal mortality was peaking. The proportion of stillborns had reached higher levels than before. Recent research advances a hypothesis of growing informalization of the Stockholm economy as part of the long stagnation period around 1750-1850 (Sdderberg et al., 1989, Chap. 9). In the 1840s nearly half of the children were born outside marriage, reflecting secularly growing barriers to marriage and 40% of the households in 1850 were headed by females, an exceptionally high figure. In the urban informal economy, growing numbers of unmarried females had to manage the family economy. It seems very likely that this was associated with a more pronounced pressure on labor inputs (in a variety of odd jobs including sweeping, washing or transportation services, or the selling of commodities such as used clothes). Like in the rural West, lo On changes in East Sweden see Kiiil (1983, p. 73), who finds that the net effect of the introduction of new and improved tools probably was an intensification of work in peasant farming. Land was tilled more thoroughly than before. ‘I This would be true particularly of the proto-industrial activity such as weaving, carried out in close affinity to peasant farming. The most detailed study is Ahlberger (1988).
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a heavier workload to a large extent was synonymous with increase self-exploitation. l2 Sandberg and Steckel are seemingly unaware of the Swedish research directed toward explaining technological, demographic, and social change in the agriculture of western Sweden. Winberg (1975) and Gadd (1983) are two of the major works. Two points are of interest here. First, Gadd regards technological change as dynamic. The use of iron tools became more widespread as the price of iron was lowered relative to agricultural products and to daily wages. Several other improvements also made for increased production, such as improved communications. In particular, the growing of potatoes must be taken into account. Technological change was partly capital-saving, as the iron plows and harrows reduced the number of draft animals per sown area.13 Second, Gadd’s calculations of per capita agricultural production and food consumption lead to less pessimistic conclusions than those drawn by Sandberg and Steckel. Food production per capita was in some investigated areas fairly stable from 1750 to 18.55; in other areas there was a substantial rise in per capita production.r4 The low point in production rather appears to have been around the 1780s. Consumption patterns changed from the mid-18th to the mid-19th century, so that more grain and less animal foods were consumed, making for a more efficient use of available resources. Grain exports from the West were growing after 1830 (Fridlizius, 1957). Sweden became a net exporter of grains. The West in fact led this Swedish export growth, the East being a slow starter. The grain exports indicate an agrarian economy capable of growth making the assumption of overpopulation combined with malnutrition questionable. DEMOGRAPHIC
DATA
A further observation that can be drawn from Gadd’s work is that the Sandberg and Steckel thesis of the “child intensive” West is at variance with the demographic data. The latter show that the higher fertility of the West produced a high and growing share of children and consequently I2 Unlike the West, agriculture in the North was directed toward animal production (with a long-term shift toward forestry). This makes the workload hypothesis less relevant for the North than for the West. As a consequence of regional variations in production, food consumption in the North relied more on dairy products (Morell, 1987, pp* 17-22). The difference between the North and the West, the latter consuming less animal proteins and more vegetable foodstuffs, could possibly be of relevance when explaining height differentials between these regions. I3 On the role of iron in agriculture see also Schbn (1987). I4 See also Winberg (1973, who demonstrates than proletarianization in the West rural areas studied by him was not the result of too sluggish development of agriculture; sown area and production grew at least as much as population, and expansion was strongest in the decades following 1820.
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strong pressures on subsistence. Let us have a closer look at some demographic data. In the areas studied intensively by Gadd, the portion of total population in active ages (15-59 years) was increasing from 1830 to 1855. The workforce, thus, was expanding relative to the children and the old. This trend, of course, should have been associated with more, not less, favorable conditions for agricultural growth. The Sandberg and Steckel view would have been valid if natural increase in the West had started to rise in 1830. Irrfact, there was such a rise in the proportion of children several decades earlier, then giving rise to the compositional shift that Sandberg and Steckel mistakenly place at the second quarter of the 19th century. The hypothesis of high intensity child labor does not take into account the well-known fact that children in the lower strata left home early in order to join more well-to-do households as servants. It also fails to note that the number of children born is lower in the households of the lower strata than among the peasants (Winberg, 1975, Chap. 7). This is partly an effect of higher marriage age among females in the lower strata. Aggregate data on changes in the age distribution among the rural population are available in Wohlin (1909), though they are not as precise as we would wish. Wohlin measured the population in nonproductive ages by relating the male children below 15 years plus certain categories of the old people to total male population.15 Summary results by demographic region are reported in Table 3, which employs the same division by county as Table 1 above. The most notable feature of the table is that population in nonproductive ages declined in all regions from 1805-1835 to 1840-1860. This decline was practically the same in the West as in the East. Because of higher birth rates in the West the nonproductive portion was higher there than in the East during both periods. As the patterns of change are almost identical in both regions, it should be obvious that no historical prediction of pauperization in the West can be based on the agricultural consumer/producer balance. Once more, as in the case of regional poverty levels, it is the North that draws attention as being the region most affected by population pressure. The nonproductive segment was more numerous in the North, and it dropped more slowly there than in the rest of Sweden. The results of Winberg (1975, Chap. 7 and Appendices) on infant and child mortality in various rural strata do not suggest deteriorating conI5 Due to deficiencies in the underlying statistical population tables, he refrained from making similar calculations regarding the females. For a description of the classification used see Wohlin (1909, pp. 32, 304). Though a separate classification of the children below 15 years would have been preferable, the inclusion of old people not belonging to the labor force would still be a useful measure of demographic consumer/producer pressure.
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TABLE 3 Percentage in Nonproductive Ages Out of Total Male Population by Demographic Region, 1805/ 1835 and 1840/1860 Region
18051835
18401860
Change
East West North
38.3 40.4 40.9
35.5 37.7 40.4
-2.8 -2.7 -0.5
Sweden
39.8
37.2
-2.6
Source. Wohlin, 1909, passim.
ditions. Winberg was surprised at the weak link between economic conditions and mortality in his investigation area in the rural West. Infant mortality declined slightly during the first half of the 19th century, and there was a marked improvement in child mortality in the age group l4 years. Sandberg and Steckel’s data on child mortality are not even regionally differentiated.16 Naturally, their thesis of deteriorating conditions in the West (as opposed to other regions) would require a regional analysis. Their general view of a close link between economic change, such as income shifts, on one hand and mortality on the other also is at variance with much recent research which regards change in mortality as little affected by economic change (e.g., Fridlizius, 1984). Siiderberg (1984a) finds mortality in part of the West region unaffected to a high degree by economic fluctuations even during the severe crisis years of the late 1860s.‘7 DOMESTIC
MARKET
WIDENING
At the macroeconomic level, disregarding regional variations, recent estimates of consumption, of industrial goods support a rather optimistic view of agricultural change from the 1820s to the 1850s. The 1820s is seen by Schon (1985a) as the beginning of sustained growth in consumption of industrial goods such as textiles.” This growth was to a large extent driven by a rise in agricultural incomes. During the 1830s ” Nor are their causes of death data regionally d&aggregated. National Revel data are insufficient to support the central thesis, that of a development disadvantageous to the West. ” The link is also quite weak between economic fluctuations and mortality in Stockholm City 1750-1850 (Soderberg et nl., 1989, Chap. 8). ” Per capita growth in consumption of industrial goods is estimated at the impressive rate of 3.9% a year for the period 1825-1854 (Schon, 1.985a, p. 25). During the subsequent period 1854-1871 growth, is weaker, 1.7%. Annual GNP growth per capita is estimated
486
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SODERBERG
and early 1840s consumption data indicate some widening in the distribution of income. From the latter part of the 184Os, on the other hand, the growth in demand seems to have come primarily from the lower strata, suggesting income trends more favorable to them. This widening of the domestic market is strategic in recent revaluations of the causes of the successful Swedish industrialization process of the latter 19th century. Several decades ago Eli F. Heckscher maintained that the roots of modern industry should be sought for not among the urban factories, which stagnated, but in the rural cottage industries surging in the decades around the mid-19th century. This line of reasoning has been strengthened by research on proto-industrialization. Rural demand, also from lower strata, is increasingly seen as a catalyst to Swedish industrial growth (SchGn, 1979, 1983, 1985b; Isacson and Magnusson, 1983; for a research review see Myrdal, 1986). Compared to earlier research, emphasis is now more on the internal agrarian roots of industrialization and less on export-led growth. The recent study by Ahlberger (1988) on domestic weaving in a rural western region sees the growth in weaving as involving a greater demand for labor. This led to higher work intensity, to rising fertility, and to larger households. As peasant and crofter households increasingly employed servants they can hardly be considered “overpopulated,” Ahlberger remarks (p.‘48). The expansion of cottage industry was associated not with impoverishment but with improving material conditions during the first half of the 19th century (pp. 76-83). HARD TIMES IN THE 18TH CENTURY The discussion by Sandberg and Steckel deals with the second quarter of the 19th century, the same period as for a long time was the focus in debates on the standard of living in Britain. Recent research by Williamson (1985), for example, argues that the pessimistic argument is more valid for an earlier period-for a large part of the 18th century which is characterized by inflation and war. Contrary to the latter part of the 18th century, no distinct downward trend in real wages can be observed during the second quarter of the 19th century. The Swedish economy was very much different from the British economy, being overwhelmingly agrarian and far less urbanized. Still, an argument can be made that the period ca. 1730-1800 exhibits a stronger downward pressure on standards of living of the lower strata (on laborers and others who were not primarily producers of agricultural goods). Olsson (1985) summarizes several Swedish studies by concluding that a at 0.3% during 1826-1830 to 1846-1850 and 0.9%during 1850 to 1866-1870 (Krantz, 1986, p. 64).
the subsequent
two decades
1846-
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certain lowering of the standard of living can be seen during the latter 18th century, and particularly during the 1780s and 1790~.‘~ Real wages of rural day laborers were deteriorating for about seven decades from 1730, the lowest levels being reached during the surging inflation of the Napoleonic Wars (Jbrberg, 1972, 1987). The inflation affected foodstuffs more than other goods. Soderberg (1987a), working with different wage and price sources, finds a similar long-term decline in the real wages of unskilled laborers in Stockholm. The time trend in real wages in Stockholm does not differ significantly from zero during the period 1820-1850, whereas it is clearly negative during the period 1730-1800.20 Gadd (1983, Chap.m7) notes indications of harsher economic conditions among even the peasants toward the end of the 18th century, when the number of animals held declined. If conditions among the peasants were affected adversely, there should be reason to expect stronger pressures on the lower strata. Swedish agrarian society was characterized by widening inequalities during the century after 1750. This partly involved growing differentials among the peasantry, and partly a substantial expansion of the lower strata relative to the peasantry (e.g., Winberg, 1975; Isacson, 1979; Morell, 1980; for a review of the evidence see Soderberg, 198713). It does not follow from this, however, that absolute living standards were declining among lower strata. Much work remains to be done in this field. Two pieces of research may be mentioned here. First, Gadd (1983, Chap. 6) found evidence of rising grain production among rural strata below the peasant level (such as crofters and soldiers). Second, recent work by Morel1 (1987) on the diet of indoor paupers from the 17th to the mid-19th century reveals that consumption of energy and proteins improved in the long run. During the 19th century, levels were quite stable.*r I9 Similarly, Fridlizius and Ohlsson (1984) report evidence from southern Sweden on deteriorating standards of living during the latter decades of the 18th century, affecting the incidence of endemic disease. During the 19th century (up to 1860) on the other hand, the effects of real wage change on mortality is weaker. Moreover, an analysis of agespecific mortality demonstrates that real wage fluctuations (largely reflecting the state of harvests) affected adult mortality more than infant and child mortality (Bengtsson and Ohlsson, 198.5). This result runs counter to the Sandberg and Steckel argument emphasizing child mortality as sensitive to shifts in the standard of living. *’ Several other European towns except Stockholm also exhibit a downward real wage trend 1730-1800, e.g., London, Amsterdam, Antwerp, Geneva, Vienna, Milan, and Madrid (Siiderberg, 1987a, p. 162). Trends during the period 1820-1850 are less distinct. The tests employed the 5% level of significance. ” Morell’s work deals with part of the East region only. He observes the sa.me shift toward vegetable foodstuffs as Gadd does for the West.
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CONCLUSION
A less pessimistic interpretation of the decline in heights in western Sweden would emphasize increasing workloads as part of the economic growth process, rather than malnutrition as a consequence of overpopulation. Reclamations of land were taking place extensively, particularly in western Sweden, increasing demand for labor while at the same time bringing the agricultural sector closer to the margin of cultivation. The overall performance of the Swedish economy during the decades around the mid-19th century is impressive. A predominantly peasant economy succeeded in coping with strong population growth while avoiding, on the whole, increased pauperization. While regional examples of more widespread poverty can be found, particularly in the most marginal agricultural regions such as Blekinge, this is not the characteristic trait of the West and even less of the national economy. Pauperization cannot, on the basis of research carried out so far, be said to have been the dominant trend. Population growth gave rise not only to negative effects (one-sidedly stressed by Sandberg and Steckel) but also to far-reaching positive adaptations. An integrated model of economic change in Sweden around the mid19th century has been outlined. It involves the following key features: (1) A positive per capita growth in agriculture, peasant agriculture being more dynamic than the manorial agriculture of the East. (2) Agricultural expansion in the West, being based on labor-intensive land reclamations and a shift toward arables, generated increased demand for rural labor. Underemployment in lower rural strata was reduced; the number of workdays a year was extended while work also grew heavier in terms of energy consumption per hour. Production per capita rose, but not production per hour.22 (3) Self-exploitation among the peasants and crofters of the West grew, probably involving a more intensive use of family and child labor. (4) Part of the increased self-exploitation took place within the expanding rural cottage industries as part of a proto-industrialization process. This promoted the division of labor in rural society, particularly in the West, and raised the supply of industrial goods such as textiles. The domestic market was widened. Sweden’s successful industrialization after 1850 has to take not only growth of exports into account but also this internal widening of the market. ** This assumption declining productivity up to about 1800 but and of potato growing
is less optimistic than that of Gadd (1983, Chap. 14) who argues that per hour was characteristic of agriculture in his investigation area nat thereafter, because of the strongly positive effects of iron tools during the first half of the 19th century.
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(5) The workload hypothesis as seen within this dynamic growth process, providing a plausible explanation of the decline in human height.s in West as a consequence of a more negative balance between fuod consumption and labor inputs. A constant nutritional standard among the rural laboring proved less sufficient than before. Though population pressure was stronger in the North than in the West, the dominance of dairy production in the North was less demanding in terms of human labor inputs. The decades around 18.50is an important transitional period in Swedish economic history. The type of adaptation predominant then could not and did not go on much beyond 1870, when land reclamations started to decline. An impoverishment of the population was postponed in the West where land clearing and partitioning of farms were important means of sustaining the growing population around midcentury. During the latter 19th century industrialization and emigration to America entered the scene as alternatives. Toward the end of the 19th century, however, the resulting small-scde agriculture rather was to impede economic growth, partly by limiting migration and transfer of labor into nonagrarian sectors. During this later period larger capital investments in agriculture were required as relative price changes favored a shift from grain to livestock. Farmers of the main plainlands now could grow at a faster rate than was possible in small-scale farming districts. This favored the East relative to the West. Investments in the East were facilitated by the larger farms there. A new regional balance arose, reversing the 1750-1850 trend where the West had been most dynamic.23 The issue is of course not whether or not there were hardships among the laboring classesin rural Sweden around the mid-19th century. There certainly were, as there had been before. But the toil and hardships during this period were not necessarily more severe than they had been previously. The decades around 1850 were generating widening inequalities, but they were simultaneously producing growth and a division of labor that was pointing forward toward a more advanced agrarian and industrial economy. REFERENCES Ahlberger, C. (1988), Vlivarfolket. Hemindustrin i Mark 1790-1850. Gothenburg: Institutet fiir lokalhistorisk forskning & De sju haradernas kulturhistoriska fiirening. Bengtsson, T., and Ohlsson, R. (1985), “Age-Specific Mortality and Short-Term Changes in the Standard of Living: Sweden 1751-1859.” European Journnl of Population 2, 309-324.
23 On broad patterns of regional change see Sijderberg (1984b) and Sdderberg and Lundgren (1982).
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Bosemp, E. (1965), The Conditions of Agricultural Growth. London: Allen & Unwin. Fiidlizius, G. (1957) Swedish Corn Export in the Free Trade Era. Lund: Gleerup. Fridlizius, G. (1984), “The Mortality Decline in the First Phase of the Demographic Transition: Swedish Experiences.” In T. Bengtsson, G. Fridlizius, and R. Ohlsson (Eds.), Pre-industrial Population Change. Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell International. Pp. 71-114. Fridlizius, G., and Ohlsson, R. (1984), “Mortality Patterns in Sweden 1751-1802: A Regional Analysis.” In T. Bengtsson, G. Fridlizius, and R. Ohlsson (Eds.), Pre-industrial Population Change. Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell International. Pp. 299-328. Fries, C. (1963), Den svenska siidern. Stockholm: Wahlstriim & Widstrand. Gadd, C.-J. (1983), J&n och potatis. Jordbruk, teknik och social omvandling i Skaraborgs liin 1750-1860. Gothenburg: Ekonomisk-historiska institutionen. Historisk statistik fir Sverige I. Befolkning 1720-1950 (1955). Stockholm: Statistiska Centralbyran. Isacson, M. (1979), Ekonomisk tillvlixt och social dt$ferentiering 1680-1860. Bondeklassen i By socken, Kopparbergs l&r. Uppsala: Ekonomisk-historiska institutionen. Isacson, M., and Magnusson, L. (1983), Viigen till fabrikerna. Industriell tradition och yrkeskunnande i Sverige under ZSOO-talet. Stockholm: Gidlunds/Verdandi. Jonsson, U. (1980), Jordmagnater, landbonder och torpare i sydiistra Siidermanland 18001880. Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell International Jorberg, L. (1972), A History of Prices in Sweden I-II. Lund: Gleerup. Jorberg, L. (1987), Levnadsstandarden i Sverige 1750-1914. Rapport till XX nordiska historikerkongressen i Reykjavik 1987. Meddelande fr&t Ekonomisk-historiska institutionen, Lunds universitet 48. Karlsson, F. (1978), Mark och forsiirjning. Befolkning och markutnyttjande i v&ha SmHland 1800-1850. Gothenburg: Ekonomisk-historiska institutionen. K611, A.-M. (1983), Tradition och reform i vtistra Siidermanlands jordbruk 1810-1890. Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell International. Krantz, 0. (1986), “Productivity Changes in Scandinavia in the 19th and 20th Centuries.” In P. O’Brien (Ed.), International Productivity Comparisons and Problems of Measurement, 1750-1939. Berne: Ninth International Economic History Congress. Pp. 56-65. Lundsjii, 0. (1975), Fattigdomen pd den svenska landsbygden under 1800-talet. Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell International. Magnusson, L. (1982) “Arbetsprocess och feodalism. Svensk godsekonomi under 1800talet.” Htiften fir Kritiska Studier 15(4), 4-15. Magnusson, L. (1983), Kapitalbildning i Sverige 1750-1860. Godsen. Uppsala: Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis. Magnusson, L. (1986), “The Rise of Agricultural Productivity in Scandinavia 1750-1860: A Review.” In P. O’Brien (Ed.), International Productivity Comparisons and Problems of Measurement, 1750-1939. Beme: Ninth International Economic History Congress. Pp. 86-95. Martinius, S. (1970a), Agrur kupitalbildning ochfinunsiering 1833-1892. Gothenburg: Ekonomisk-historiska institutionen. Martinius, S. (1970b), Jordbruk och ekonomisk tillvd’xt i Sverige 1830-1870. Gothenburg: Ekonomisk-historiska institutionen. Martinius, S. (1985). Jordbrukets omvandling pd 1700- och 1800-talen. Malmii: Liber Forlag. Martinius, S. (1987), “Capitalism: A Threat against Freehold Farms around the Middle of the Nineteenth Century?” Scandinavian Economic History Review 35, 178-190. Morel], M. (1980), “On the Stratification of the Swedish Peasant Class.” Scandinavian Economic History Review 28, 15-32.
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Morel& M. (1987), Studier i den svenska livsmedelskonsumtionens historia. Hospitalshjonens livsmedelskonsurntion 1621-1872. Uppsala: Ekonomisk-historiska institutionen. Myrdal, J. (1986), “Agrarhistoriens amnesbyte.” Rig 86(l), 16-22. Olsson, U. (198.5) “Recent Research in Sweden on the Standard of Living during the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries.” Scandinavian Economic History Review 33, 153-158. Samuelson, P. (1978), “The Canonical Classical Model of Political Economy.” Journal of Economic Literature 16, 1415-1434. Sandberg, L. G., and Steckel, R. H. (1988), “Overpopulation and Malnutrition Rediscovered: Hard Times in 19th-Century Sweden.” Explorations in Economic History 25, 1-19. Schon, L. (1979), Fran hantverk till fabriksindustri. Svensk textiltillverkning 1820-1870. Lund: Arkiv avhandlingsserie. Schbn, L. (1983), Industrialismens forutscittningar. Malmo: Liber For-lag. Schiin, L. (1985a), Jordbrukets omvandling och konsumtionens for%ndringar lSO@-1870. Meddelande fr& Ekonomisk-historiska institutionen, Lunds universitet 41. Schon, L. (1985b), “Marknad och industrialisering under 1800-talet.” Historisk tidskrift 105, 453-470.
Schon, L. (1987), J&met i jordbruksomvandling och industrialisering i Sverige 1800-1870. In 0. Krantz and R. Ohlsson, (Eds.), Ekonomisk-historiska vingslag. Festskrtft tilltignad G Fridlizius-L Jiirberg. Lund: Ekonomisk-historiska fiireningen. Siiderberg, J. (1978), Agrar fattigdom i Sydsverige under 1800-talet. Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell International. Soderberg, J. (1982), “Causes of Poverty in Sweden in the Nineteenth Century.” Journal of European Economic History 11, 369-402. Soderberg, J. (1984a), “Interrelationships between Short-Term Economic and Demographic Fluctuations in a Period of Crisis: South-Eastern Sweden, 1866-1872.” In T. Bengtsson, G. Fridlizius, and R. Ohlsson (Eds.), Pre-industrial Population Change. Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell International. Pp. 255-276. Soderberg, J. (1984b), “A Long-Term Perspective on Regional Economic Development in Sweden, ca. 1500-1914.” Scandinavian Economic History Review 32, 1-16. SGderberg, J. (1987a), “Real Wages in Urban Europe, 1730-1850: Stockholm in a Cornparative Perspective.” Social History 12, 155-176. Soderberg, J. (1987b), “Trends in Inequality in Sweden, 1700-1914.” Historisch-SoziaZwissenschaftliche Forschungen 21, 58-78. Soderberg, J., Jonsson, U., and Persson, C. (1989), Stagnating Metropolis: Essays on Stockholm’s Economy and Demography, 1750-1850. Forthcoming. Soderberg, J., and Lundgren, N.-G. (1982), Ekonomisk och geograjsk koncentration i Sverige 1850-1980. Lund: Liber. Williamson, J. G. (1985), Did British Capitalism Breed Inequality? Boston: Allen & Unwin. Winberg, C. (1973, Folkokning och proletarisering. Kring den socialu strukturomvandlingen pii Sveriges landsbygd under den agrara revolutionen. Gothenburg: Historiska institutionen vid Giiteborgs universitet. Wohlin, N. (1909), Den jordbruksidkande befoikningen i Sverige 1751-1900. Stockholm: Norstedt & Stirrer.
IN ECONOMIC
HISTORY
26, 477-491 (1989)
Hard Times in 1Sth-Century Sweden: A Comment* JOHAN SGDERBERG Department
of Economic History, University of Stockholm
An alternative interpretation, the growth/workload hypothesis, is given to counter the recent argument by Sandberg and Steckel (1988, Explorations in Economic History 25, l-19) on overpopulation and malnutrition in Sweden around the mid-19th century. This explains the joint behavior of agrarian growth and labor demand, poverty, side employment, and nutrition within a regional framework. The mid-19th century is seen as a transitional period which succeeded remarkably well in avoiding pauperization despite strong population growth. 0 1989 Academic
Press, Inc.
INTRODUCTION
In a recent article, L. G. Sandberg and R. N. Steckel (1988) argue that a decline in heights of males provides indications of overpopulation and malnutrition in western Sweden around the mid-19th century. Primarily, they use data on the heights of Swedish soldiers; secondarily, they base their argument on child mortality and rural real wage data.’ They arrive at a more pessimistic view of the period than most other researchers have in recent years. * I thank Rolf Adamson, Gunnar ArtCus, Sture Martinius, and Janken Myrdal for their comments on an earlier version of this paper. ’ In their analysis of human height data, Sandberg and Steckel do not explicitly face the methodological questions involved in generalizing from the sample of recruits to the population of the various regions. Factors affecting the supply as well as the demand of recruits need to be considered. On the supply side, it cannot be taken for granted that the military sample always was a random sample out of the young males (above the minimum height). Changing labor market prospects may have affected recruitment. This could happen if, for instance, increased demand for civilian labor over time was to offer more attractive employment alternatives than did military service. In the extreme case, the strongest and tallest males would be better rewarded outside the military sector, making the shorter increasingly overrepresented among the recruits. On the demand side, the differential growth of the military apparatus in the various regions should be made clear. Stronger growth in one region should have tended to lower average heights as the supply was incieasingly exhausted. Sandberg and Steckel obviously assume supply and demand factors to have been unchanged over time. 477 0014-4983189 $3.00 Copyright 0 1989 by Academic Press, Inc. All rights of reproduction in any form reserved.
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Sandberg and Steckel divide Sweden into four major regions: East, West, North, and Stockholm. Western Sweden stands out as the only region exhibiting a marked decline in the heights of recruits (as the 18181837 and 1838-1856 birth cohorts are compared). In the East and North, on the other hand, heights are improving, and in Stockholm there is practically no change. It should be stressed that the West includes not only western Sweden but also the southern and southeastern parts. The argument here is based into two parts. First, there are other types of data relevant to the problem, not considered by Sandberg and Steckel. Their reading of modern Swedish research is highly selective, no major work published in Swedish being quoted. Information on regional economic growth as well as technological and social change should be taken into account. Second, we outline an alternative interpretation, the growth/workload hypothesis. This interpretation attempts to explain the joint behavior of agricultural growth and labor demand, poverty, protoindustrial activity, and nutrition. The first of these data sets reported, refer to poverty measurements. Second, work on economic growth in the agricultural sector around the mid-19th century is mentioned by Sandberg and Steckel who, however, cite only a single figure on the average national growth rate. The fairly rich information available on regional variation is not exploited. Third, we refer to recent studies of technological and social change in the agricultural economy of western Sweden which are not mentioned by Sandberg and Steckel. POVERTY DATA Lundsjii (1975) and Soderberg (1978, 1982) studied the incidence of poverty by means of fiscal records. Part of the population was exempted from taxes because of their poverty. According to the assessments by the tax authorities, these people were simply regarded as too poor to pay any personal tax at all. Some of these personal taxes were quite low in money terms. Therefore we can, in principle, regard this segment of the population as comprising those who lacked any economic resource above subsistence. This section of the population often fell between 15 and 30%, with interesting temporal and regional variations. During the second quarter of the 19th century, the West was characterized by a fairly constant incidence of poverty. The same applies to the East (Table 2). Poverty was shifting toward the southeast and toward the northernmost parts of Sweden. The most marked improvements took place in the western and southernmost counties. The West’s position was not deteriorating relative to the national average. These data do not suggest that the experience of the West was much worse than that of the East.
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For the West taken as a whole, poverty time series are not available except for a few years. Several county series can be presented, though. Table 1 reports poverty ratios with 5-year intervals in six counties that are part of the West.’ In five out of the six counties there is simply no upward trend in poverty.3 In the counties of alvsborg, Skaraborg, and Halland, there is rather some downward tendency. On the other hand Blekinge, a small county with many marginal landholdings, displays an unfavorable poverty trend. In the 1850s and 1860s poverty figures in Blekinge clearly surpass those of the West as a whole. The most likely explanation is that cultivation into marginal areas had proceeded further than elsewhere. Small peasants and crofters were reaching the limits of cultivation. To find evidence of rising poverty we should look at the North rather than at the West or the East. The North was the most sparsely populated part of Sweden, though population growth was very strong around the mid19th century. Rapid population growth seems to have had the double effect of promoting per capita agricultural growth while at the same time being associated with upward tendencies in poverty.4 Colonization of marginal lands was a feature of the North as well as of the West, but in the North these lands were primarily used for animal production. AGRARIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH One of the most important conclusions that can be drawn from the data presented by Martinius (1970a, 1970b) is that of a positive rather than negative association between per capita agricultural growth rate and population growth from the 1830s to the 1860s.5 Let us for the purposes of a broad overview accept the regional division. by Sandberg and Steckel. In the East, then, both population grawth and per capita agrarian growth were relatively small. In the West and North, on the other hand, strong population growth went hand in hand with agricultural growth rates, exceeding those observed in the East. Table 2 summarizes the evidence on population growth, agrarian economic growth, and change in the level of poverty. ’ Note that the counties of Malmiihus and Kristianstad together form Scania, the southernmost province, and that Blekinge is part of southeastern Sweden. For poverty maps see Soderberg (1982). 3 The peak years reflect poor harvests, for instance in some counties in 1831. 4 The r, correlation between population growth at the county level and percentage change in poverty I8261851 is clearly positive, 0.51. Unlike what Sandberg and Steckel seem to suggest, the West was not the area of outstanding population pressure. The fact that population growth as well as poverty change was more unfavorable in North does not conform well to the regional pattern of shifts in human heights. ’ At the county level, providing 23 observations, the rm correlation is 0.48 between rural population growth and per capita agricultural growth. The growth in agricultural productivity is stressed also by Magnusson (1983, 1986).
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TABLE 1 Poverty Ratios in Selected West Counties: Rural Areas 1826-1866 Year
Ib;lvsborg
Skaraborg
Halland
1826 1831 1836 1841 1846 1851 1856 1861 1866
24.9 25.3 22.5 20.4 19.8 20.9 20.9 21.5 19.5
23.6 25.3 21.5 23.2 23.1 22.7 22.3 21.0 18.4
21.7 25.6 20.2 20.8 18.6 19.4 20.0 19.5 16.6
Malmohus 17.6 16.7 16.3 16.6 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.5 14.8
Kristianstad
Blekinge 18.6 21.1 18.2 19.0 24.1 25.6 26.7 25.2 29.0
18.2 16.9 19.0 18.4 16.2 16.0 17.1 18.5 18.5
Sources. Lundsjo, 1975, pp. 90, 103; Siiderberg, 1978, p. 39. Note. The poverty ratio is defined as the percentage of those exempted from all taxes to total population liable to pay taxes. It thus measures poverty only within the adult population.
Should we expect a direct link between the growth of agricultural wage labor and downward pressure on nutritional standards? Probably not. Agricultural wage labor was most widespread in the East with its larger farms and estates, not in the West as Sandberg and Steckel seem to think. Proletarianization in the form of wage labor, thus, was most pronounced in the most well-to-do regions, especially in the Lake Malaren Valley. The West, on the other hand, was characterized by increasingly sub-
TABLE 2 Rural Population Growth 1830-1860 (Annual Average), per Capita Agrarian Economic Growth (Annual Average l833-1862), and Percentage Poor by Region in 1826 and 1851 (Weighted by 1850 Rural Population)
Region West East North Sweden
Population growth 0.93 0.52 1.39 0.86
Poor
Agrarian growth
1826
1851
0.75 0.28 0.88 0.62
22.2 20.4 20.4 21.2
22.1 20.1 24.5 21.7
Sources. Martinius, 1970b, p. 28 (population and agrarian growth); Lundsjii, 175, pp. 90,103; Siiderberg, 1978, p. 39 (poverty). Population weights according to Historiskstatistik far Sverige 1, 1955, p. 9. Note. The counties of Grebro and Kopparberg, which cannot as a whole be placed within the East/West regional classification, are not included.
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divided farms and extensive land reclamations6 Many regions in the West were dominated by small landowners, and cottage industries providing supplemental incomes were expanding. Unlike the East, where unrestricted and high population mobility should have made it difficult for landowners to intensify exploitation of their labor force, economic trends in the West may well have promoted increasing self-exploitation among small farmers and crofters.7 Common Ricardian theory would predict diminishing returns at the extensive as well as at the intensive margin of cultivation (see, e.g., the modern but basically Ricardian argument of Boserup (1965); also Samuelson (1978)). In order to maintain subsistence levels in the face of rapid population growth, small cultivators were gradually taking increasingly marginal lands into use.* In this labor-intensive process, more work hours had to be spent producing basic necessities.g We label this the growth/workload hypothesis, emphasizing that agricultural growth and 6 On land clearings in two inland counties of the West (Jiinkoping och Kronoberg), see Karlsson (1978). During the first half of 19th century the cultivated area rose by 70% and population by about 50%. Even in these counties that comprise large areas of marginal lands the growth in acreage thus exceeded population growth. The almost inconceivable amount of work laid down into these reclamations has impressed many later observers, e.g., Fries (1963, pp. 38-41). He describes how land reclamation forced the peasant or crofter to carry away thousands upon thousands of heavy burdens of stone from the small plots in marginal and forest areas, a land of gray stone. In many places it was not possible to get through the stony plots with a horse and a plough; everything had to be done manually. 7 It seems that large-scale agriculture was at a disadvantage relative to family-based peasant agriculture around the mid-19thcentury. The manorial economy of the East was stagnating, though at a relatively high level. Part of the difficulties of large-scale farming may be due to the problems of supervising the workforce. These problems should have been less serious within small-scale peasant farming which relied primarily on family labor. It was more feasible to strengthen self-exploitation in the West than to exert more control over the proletarianized workforce of the East. An indirect indication of this is that manors in the East often preferred labor inputs in the form of daywork from peasants and crofters rather than employing a substantial workforce of landless laborers. For discussions of aspects of the labor process and supervision under unmechanized conditions see Jonsson (1980, pp. 169-178), K611 (1983, pp. 186-198), Magnusson (1982), Martinius (1987, p. 181182). * The spread of oats cultivation in the West initially produced high yields, but land tended to deteriorate after relatively short periods (Martinius, 1970a, pp. 99-102, 1984, chap. 3). 9 This view is more pessimistic than that of Magnusson (1983, pp. 16-20). He suggests that land was not subject to diminishing returns in the period 1750-1860. The newly reclaimed land may have yielded as much as, or perhaps even more, than land already in use. To support this optimistic interpretation he cites various figures on rising yields ratios (the amount harvested to the amount sown) during the period. These data, however, refer to uncertain estimates and do not separate the old acreage from the new. Nor are labor inputs taken into account.
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higher work activity are two sides of the same process during this largely unmechanized phase. Workloads in the West may have grown heavier for two connected reasons. The first is the shift toward arable production, involving more intensive work on existing plots as well as on large land reclamations and leading to more heavy physical work.” The second is growing demand for labor from the lower strata, which may well have produced a higher number of workdays over the year. Human energy consumption per capita then should have grown partly due to more intensive work per hour, partly due to more hours worked a year. As labor demand increased it is possible that underemployment was reduced. Schijn (1985a) finds such a growth in the number of yearly workdays in lower strata likely on the basis of an analysis of relative prices and consumption patterns. A likely effect of the growing demand for unskilled rural labor would be that the labor of family members other than the breadwinner was used to a greater extent than before.” We can, then, expect greater demands on food supplies to sustain the labor force. It is perfectly possible that the marginal adaptations we see in the West during a certain period generated a more unfavorable balance between energy intake and the amount of labor produced. Even if per capita food consumption remained at previous levels, it may have been insufficient to outweight fully the growth in workloads. Certainly children were not excluded from farm labor, and demands on their labor inputs may have grown. The workload hypothesis has an interesting parallel in the case of Stockholm. In some respects demographic conditions were deteriorating in the capitol shortly before 1850. Maternal mortality was peaking. The proportion of stillborns had reached higher levels than before. Recent research advances a hypothesis of growing informalization of the Stockholm economy as part of the long stagnation period around 1750-1850 (Sdderberg et al., 1989, Chap. 9). In the 1840s nearly half of the children were born outside marriage, reflecting secularly growing barriers to marriage and 40% of the households in 1850 were headed by females, an exceptionally high figure. In the urban informal economy, growing numbers of unmarried females had to manage the family economy. It seems very likely that this was associated with a more pronounced pressure on labor inputs (in a variety of odd jobs including sweeping, washing or transportation services, or the selling of commodities such as used clothes). Like in the rural West, lo On changes in East Sweden see Kiiil (1983, p. 73), who finds that the net effect of the introduction of new and improved tools probably was an intensification of work in peasant farming. Land was tilled more thoroughly than before. ‘I This would be true particularly of the proto-industrial activity such as weaving, carried out in close affinity to peasant farming. The most detailed study is Ahlberger (1988).
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a heavier workload to a large extent was synonymous with increase self-exploitation. l2 Sandberg and Steckel are seemingly unaware of the Swedish research directed toward explaining technological, demographic, and social change in the agriculture of western Sweden. Winberg (1975) and Gadd (1983) are two of the major works. Two points are of interest here. First, Gadd regards technological change as dynamic. The use of iron tools became more widespread as the price of iron was lowered relative to agricultural products and to daily wages. Several other improvements also made for increased production, such as improved communications. In particular, the growing of potatoes must be taken into account. Technological change was partly capital-saving, as the iron plows and harrows reduced the number of draft animals per sown area.13 Second, Gadd’s calculations of per capita agricultural production and food consumption lead to less pessimistic conclusions than those drawn by Sandberg and Steckel. Food production per capita was in some investigated areas fairly stable from 1750 to 18.55; in other areas there was a substantial rise in per capita production.r4 The low point in production rather appears to have been around the 1780s. Consumption patterns changed from the mid-18th to the mid-19th century, so that more grain and less animal foods were consumed, making for a more efficient use of available resources. Grain exports from the West were growing after 1830 (Fridlizius, 1957). Sweden became a net exporter of grains. The West in fact led this Swedish export growth, the East being a slow starter. The grain exports indicate an agrarian economy capable of growth making the assumption of overpopulation combined with malnutrition questionable. DEMOGRAPHIC
DATA
A further observation that can be drawn from Gadd’s work is that the Sandberg and Steckel thesis of the “child intensive” West is at variance with the demographic data. The latter show that the higher fertility of the West produced a high and growing share of children and consequently I2 Unlike the West, agriculture in the North was directed toward animal production (with a long-term shift toward forestry). This makes the workload hypothesis less relevant for the North than for the West. As a consequence of regional variations in production, food consumption in the North relied more on dairy products (Morell, 1987, pp* 17-22). The difference between the North and the West, the latter consuming less animal proteins and more vegetable foodstuffs, could possibly be of relevance when explaining height differentials between these regions. I3 On the role of iron in agriculture see also Schbn (1987). I4 See also Winberg (1973, who demonstrates than proletarianization in the West rural areas studied by him was not the result of too sluggish development of agriculture; sown area and production grew at least as much as population, and expansion was strongest in the decades following 1820.
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strong pressures on subsistence. Let us have a closer look at some demographic data. In the areas studied intensively by Gadd, the portion of total population in active ages (15-59 years) was increasing from 1830 to 1855. The workforce, thus, was expanding relative to the children and the old. This trend, of course, should have been associated with more, not less, favorable conditions for agricultural growth. The Sandberg and Steckel view would have been valid if natural increase in the West had started to rise in 1830. Irrfact, there was such a rise in the proportion of children several decades earlier, then giving rise to the compositional shift that Sandberg and Steckel mistakenly place at the second quarter of the 19th century. The hypothesis of high intensity child labor does not take into account the well-known fact that children in the lower strata left home early in order to join more well-to-do households as servants. It also fails to note that the number of children born is lower in the households of the lower strata than among the peasants (Winberg, 1975, Chap. 7). This is partly an effect of higher marriage age among females in the lower strata. Aggregate data on changes in the age distribution among the rural population are available in Wohlin (1909), though they are not as precise as we would wish. Wohlin measured the population in nonproductive ages by relating the male children below 15 years plus certain categories of the old people to total male population.15 Summary results by demographic region are reported in Table 3, which employs the same division by county as Table 1 above. The most notable feature of the table is that population in nonproductive ages declined in all regions from 1805-1835 to 1840-1860. This decline was practically the same in the West as in the East. Because of higher birth rates in the West the nonproductive portion was higher there than in the East during both periods. As the patterns of change are almost identical in both regions, it should be obvious that no historical prediction of pauperization in the West can be based on the agricultural consumer/producer balance. Once more, as in the case of regional poverty levels, it is the North that draws attention as being the region most affected by population pressure. The nonproductive segment was more numerous in the North, and it dropped more slowly there than in the rest of Sweden. The results of Winberg (1975, Chap. 7 and Appendices) on infant and child mortality in various rural strata do not suggest deteriorating conI5 Due to deficiencies in the underlying statistical population tables, he refrained from making similar calculations regarding the females. For a description of the classification used see Wohlin (1909, pp. 32, 304). Though a separate classification of the children below 15 years would have been preferable, the inclusion of old people not belonging to the labor force would still be a useful measure of demographic consumer/producer pressure.
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TABLE 3 Percentage in Nonproductive Ages Out of Total Male Population by Demographic Region, 1805/ 1835 and 1840/1860 Region
18051835
18401860
Change
East West North
38.3 40.4 40.9
35.5 37.7 40.4
-2.8 -2.7 -0.5
Sweden
39.8
37.2
-2.6
Source. Wohlin, 1909, passim.
ditions. Winberg was surprised at the weak link between economic conditions and mortality in his investigation area in the rural West. Infant mortality declined slightly during the first half of the 19th century, and there was a marked improvement in child mortality in the age group l4 years. Sandberg and Steckel’s data on child mortality are not even regionally differentiated.16 Naturally, their thesis of deteriorating conditions in the West (as opposed to other regions) would require a regional analysis. Their general view of a close link between economic change, such as income shifts, on one hand and mortality on the other also is at variance with much recent research which regards change in mortality as little affected by economic change (e.g., Fridlizius, 1984). Siiderberg (1984a) finds mortality in part of the West region unaffected to a high degree by economic fluctuations even during the severe crisis years of the late 1860s.‘7 DOMESTIC
MARKET
WIDENING
At the macroeconomic level, disregarding regional variations, recent estimates of consumption, of industrial goods support a rather optimistic view of agricultural change from the 1820s to the 1850s. The 1820s is seen by Schon (1985a) as the beginning of sustained growth in consumption of industrial goods such as textiles.” This growth was to a large extent driven by a rise in agricultural incomes. During the 1830s ” Nor are their causes of death data regionally d&aggregated. National Revel data are insufficient to support the central thesis, that of a development disadvantageous to the West. ” The link is also quite weak between economic fluctuations and mortality in Stockholm City 1750-1850 (Soderberg et nl., 1989, Chap. 8). ” Per capita growth in consumption of industrial goods is estimated at the impressive rate of 3.9% a year for the period 1825-1854 (Schon, 1.985a, p. 25). During the subsequent period 1854-1871 growth, is weaker, 1.7%. Annual GNP growth per capita is estimated
486
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SODERBERG
and early 1840s consumption data indicate some widening in the distribution of income. From the latter part of the 184Os, on the other hand, the growth in demand seems to have come primarily from the lower strata, suggesting income trends more favorable to them. This widening of the domestic market is strategic in recent revaluations of the causes of the successful Swedish industrialization process of the latter 19th century. Several decades ago Eli F. Heckscher maintained that the roots of modern industry should be sought for not among the urban factories, which stagnated, but in the rural cottage industries surging in the decades around the mid-19th century. This line of reasoning has been strengthened by research on proto-industrialization. Rural demand, also from lower strata, is increasingly seen as a catalyst to Swedish industrial growth (SchGn, 1979, 1983, 1985b; Isacson and Magnusson, 1983; for a research review see Myrdal, 1986). Compared to earlier research, emphasis is now more on the internal agrarian roots of industrialization and less on export-led growth. The recent study by Ahlberger (1988) on domestic weaving in a rural western region sees the growth in weaving as involving a greater demand for labor. This led to higher work intensity, to rising fertility, and to larger households. As peasant and crofter households increasingly employed servants they can hardly be considered “overpopulated,” Ahlberger remarks (p.‘48). The expansion of cottage industry was associated not with impoverishment but with improving material conditions during the first half of the 19th century (pp. 76-83). HARD TIMES IN THE 18TH CENTURY The discussion by Sandberg and Steckel deals with the second quarter of the 19th century, the same period as for a long time was the focus in debates on the standard of living in Britain. Recent research by Williamson (1985), for example, argues that the pessimistic argument is more valid for an earlier period-for a large part of the 18th century which is characterized by inflation and war. Contrary to the latter part of the 18th century, no distinct downward trend in real wages can be observed during the second quarter of the 19th century. The Swedish economy was very much different from the British economy, being overwhelmingly agrarian and far less urbanized. Still, an argument can be made that the period ca. 1730-1800 exhibits a stronger downward pressure on standards of living of the lower strata (on laborers and others who were not primarily producers of agricultural goods). Olsson (1985) summarizes several Swedish studies by concluding that a at 0.3% during 1826-1830 to 1846-1850 and 0.9%during 1850 to 1866-1870 (Krantz, 1986, p. 64).
the subsequent
two decades
1846-
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certain lowering of the standard of living can be seen during the latter 18th century, and particularly during the 1780s and 1790~.‘~ Real wages of rural day laborers were deteriorating for about seven decades from 1730, the lowest levels being reached during the surging inflation of the Napoleonic Wars (Jbrberg, 1972, 1987). The inflation affected foodstuffs more than other goods. Soderberg (1987a), working with different wage and price sources, finds a similar long-term decline in the real wages of unskilled laborers in Stockholm. The time trend in real wages in Stockholm does not differ significantly from zero during the period 1820-1850, whereas it is clearly negative during the period 1730-1800.20 Gadd (1983, Chap.m7) notes indications of harsher economic conditions among even the peasants toward the end of the 18th century, when the number of animals held declined. If conditions among the peasants were affected adversely, there should be reason to expect stronger pressures on the lower strata. Swedish agrarian society was characterized by widening inequalities during the century after 1750. This partly involved growing differentials among the peasantry, and partly a substantial expansion of the lower strata relative to the peasantry (e.g., Winberg, 1975; Isacson, 1979; Morell, 1980; for a review of the evidence see Soderberg, 198713). It does not follow from this, however, that absolute living standards were declining among lower strata. Much work remains to be done in this field. Two pieces of research may be mentioned here. First, Gadd (1983, Chap. 6) found evidence of rising grain production among rural strata below the peasant level (such as crofters and soldiers). Second, recent work by Morel1 (1987) on the diet of indoor paupers from the 17th to the mid-19th century reveals that consumption of energy and proteins improved in the long run. During the 19th century, levels were quite stable.*r I9 Similarly, Fridlizius and Ohlsson (1984) report evidence from southern Sweden on deteriorating standards of living during the latter decades of the 18th century, affecting the incidence of endemic disease. During the 19th century (up to 1860) on the other hand, the effects of real wage change on mortality is weaker. Moreover, an analysis of agespecific mortality demonstrates that real wage fluctuations (largely reflecting the state of harvests) affected adult mortality more than infant and child mortality (Bengtsson and Ohlsson, 198.5). This result runs counter to the Sandberg and Steckel argument emphasizing child mortality as sensitive to shifts in the standard of living. *’ Several other European towns except Stockholm also exhibit a downward real wage trend 1730-1800, e.g., London, Amsterdam, Antwerp, Geneva, Vienna, Milan, and Madrid (Siiderberg, 1987a, p. 162). Trends during the period 1820-1850 are less distinct. The tests employed the 5% level of significance. ” Morell’s work deals with part of the East region only. He observes the sa.me shift toward vegetable foodstuffs as Gadd does for the West.
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CONCLUSION
A less pessimistic interpretation of the decline in heights in western Sweden would emphasize increasing workloads as part of the economic growth process, rather than malnutrition as a consequence of overpopulation. Reclamations of land were taking place extensively, particularly in western Sweden, increasing demand for labor while at the same time bringing the agricultural sector closer to the margin of cultivation. The overall performance of the Swedish economy during the decades around the mid-19th century is impressive. A predominantly peasant economy succeeded in coping with strong population growth while avoiding, on the whole, increased pauperization. While regional examples of more widespread poverty can be found, particularly in the most marginal agricultural regions such as Blekinge, this is not the characteristic trait of the West and even less of the national economy. Pauperization cannot, on the basis of research carried out so far, be said to have been the dominant trend. Population growth gave rise not only to negative effects (one-sidedly stressed by Sandberg and Steckel) but also to far-reaching positive adaptations. An integrated model of economic change in Sweden around the mid19th century has been outlined. It involves the following key features: (1) A positive per capita growth in agriculture, peasant agriculture being more dynamic than the manorial agriculture of the East. (2) Agricultural expansion in the West, being based on labor-intensive land reclamations and a shift toward arables, generated increased demand for rural labor. Underemployment in lower rural strata was reduced; the number of workdays a year was extended while work also grew heavier in terms of energy consumption per hour. Production per capita rose, but not production per hour.22 (3) Self-exploitation among the peasants and crofters of the West grew, probably involving a more intensive use of family and child labor. (4) Part of the increased self-exploitation took place within the expanding rural cottage industries as part of a proto-industrialization process. This promoted the division of labor in rural society, particularly in the West, and raised the supply of industrial goods such as textiles. The domestic market was widened. Sweden’s successful industrialization after 1850 has to take not only growth of exports into account but also this internal widening of the market. ** This assumption declining productivity up to about 1800 but and of potato growing
is less optimistic than that of Gadd (1983, Chap. 14) who argues that per hour was characteristic of agriculture in his investigation area nat thereafter, because of the strongly positive effects of iron tools during the first half of the 19th century.
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(5) The workload hypothesis as seen within this dynamic growth process, providing a plausible explanation of the decline in human height.s in West as a consequence of a more negative balance between fuod consumption and labor inputs. A constant nutritional standard among the rural laboring proved less sufficient than before. Though population pressure was stronger in the North than in the West, the dominance of dairy production in the North was less demanding in terms of human labor inputs. The decades around 18.50is an important transitional period in Swedish economic history. The type of adaptation predominant then could not and did not go on much beyond 1870, when land reclamations started to decline. An impoverishment of the population was postponed in the West where land clearing and partitioning of farms were important means of sustaining the growing population around midcentury. During the latter 19th century industrialization and emigration to America entered the scene as alternatives. Toward the end of the 19th century, however, the resulting small-scde agriculture rather was to impede economic growth, partly by limiting migration and transfer of labor into nonagrarian sectors. During this later period larger capital investments in agriculture were required as relative price changes favored a shift from grain to livestock. Farmers of the main plainlands now could grow at a faster rate than was possible in small-scale farming districts. This favored the East relative to the West. Investments in the East were facilitated by the larger farms there. A new regional balance arose, reversing the 1750-1850 trend where the West had been most dynamic.23 The issue is of course not whether or not there were hardships among the laboring classesin rural Sweden around the mid-19th century. There certainly were, as there had been before. But the toil and hardships during this period were not necessarily more severe than they had been previously. The decades around 1850 were generating widening inequalities, but they were simultaneously producing growth and a division of labor that was pointing forward toward a more advanced agrarian and industrial economy. REFERENCES Ahlberger, C. (1988), Vlivarfolket. Hemindustrin i Mark 1790-1850. Gothenburg: Institutet fiir lokalhistorisk forskning & De sju haradernas kulturhistoriska fiirening. Bengtsson, T., and Ohlsson, R. (1985), “Age-Specific Mortality and Short-Term Changes in the Standard of Living: Sweden 1751-1859.” European Journnl of Population 2, 309-324.
23 On broad patterns of regional change see Sijderberg (1984b) and Sdderberg and Lundgren (1982).
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