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Hazard control policy in Britain
Amd And & Pm Vol @ Pergamon Press Ltd
GW1-4575/7810601-0)177/~2
IO. PP 177-181 m Great Bnim
M/O
. I!?78Pnnted
RECENT PUBLICATIONS Recent Publications is a regular feature of Accident Analysis and Prevention, and will expand its coverage to include full-length reviews and brief notices. Particular attention will be paid to research published outside of North Amen’ca, and to agency reports. Anyone who wishes to review books is invited to submit his name, areas of interest and language competencies. A sheet of guidelines for book reviews is available upon request. Publishers and authors are invited to submit material for review. All reviews, publications and inquiries should be directed to: Del Sweeney, Book Review Editor Accident Analysis and Prevention Pennsylvania Transportation Institute Research Building B University Park, PA 16802, U.S.A.
Hazard Control Policy In Britain. John C. Chicken. Pergamon Press, Oxford/New York, 1975, 193 p. $14.50. In the last years the interest in risk questions has increased substantially both in the public opinion and among scientists. The discussion and research about road traffic safety has been rather intense for some decades. Lately the risk problems about nuclear power reactors and new chemical products have aroused both a vivid public discussion and in a way new problems about how to deal with uncertainties of different kinds. The research about risk and hazard problems has mainly been going along two lines, the more traditional technical-statistical one concerned with measuring and calculating risks and the recent more psychological one dealing with how individuals, groups and society react towar.ls risks. But there is also another very important aspect of risk, namely the structure in which the risk policy of the society is formed. Thus given some risks and assuming we know about people’s reaction to these risks, try to describe the structure and relations of the risk decisive body of the society. This can be said to be the main issue of the book by John C. Chicken. Sometimes discussion about risk tends to be rather abstract and apart from the practical problems. In his book, Chicken has avoided this by considering through all the chapters five cases: road transport, air transport, factories, nuclear power reactors and air contamination. Further on he has concentrated solely on the situation in Britain, thus limiting partly a more universal validity of his conclusions. The cases are chosen to cover different degrees of private-public ownership and control and modern-older technology. The book consists of five chapters: introduction, the nature of hazards, hazard control policy, the role of interest groups, conclusions and lastly references and some appendices. In the second chapter the author defines hazards and mentions the possible unequal distribution of hazards. Then he tries to state what is meant by an acceptable level of hazard by comparing new hazards with ‘accepted’ old ones. Even if such a comparison can illustrate the risk level it is dubious if it can or should govern our hazard policy. Whether one likes it or not it is a fact that the public often reacts towards new risks differently from what one should expect by such comparisons. In the treatment of hazard control policy the author uses a system-theoretical standpoint in describing the policy making system. The side conditions are set by economic systems, foreign political systems and the current state of knowledge. 117
178
Recent Publications
The interacting parts of the system are political parties, interest groups, the ruling bodies of the country, all these in communication with the public opinion and giving rise to legislation and implementation. He then uses this framework both in a general description of hazard policy making in Britain and for the five case studies, which turns out to be a fruitful and interesting way of approach. The role of interest groups for the five cases is given its own chapter containing a vivid and clear description of both the interest groups themselves and their influence. The limitation to British conditions, however, makes the content somewhat special for a foreign reader. In the last chapter the author draws some conclusions from the preceding analysis. He argues for a more coordinated view on different hazards and he envisages a development where the risk problems of rapid technological development will be important and of increasing interest. Altogether, the author looks at some earlier rather neglected parts of risk, i.e. hazard policy making and he gives many interesting viewpoints on the risk policy of Britain, in particular for the well-known cases mentioned above. Being rather untechnical the book can be recommended for anyone interested in problems about risk and risk policy. TOWORN THED~EN
University of Stockholm
The Simulator As a Driver Testing Device. John F. O’Brien. New York State Department of Motor Vehicles. Albany, New York 12228, August, 1977. The New York Department of Motor Vehicles undertook this study of the use of simulators as a possible alternative to, or pretest for, road testing in original licensing or license reexamination. The simulator consisted of a 28 minute motion picture of typical driving situations placed in front of a driver’s seat equipped with ordinary car controls. The study compared average scores on various aspects of driver reaction to situations on the simulator among five groups of drivers: (1) less than six months of on-road experience and no simulator experience, (2) less than six months on-road experience and simulator experience, (3) greater than six months on-road experience and no simulator experience, (4) greater than six months on-road experience and simulator experience, (5) professional drivers. In addition, average simulator scores were compared among drivers according to groupings of crash and violation points. The study found a number of average differences in simulated performance among the five groups of drivers which were statistically significant at the 0.05 or lower levels. Only one of thirty-nine comparisons of simulator performance was significant among groups with no points, 1 l-2 points, and 3 or more points on their crash and violation records. The study concludes that a simulator can be used to screen for road tests of prospective new licensees or as a tool in reexamination of licensed drivers. That conclusion is not justified by the study’s results for three reasons: (1) Statistical significance is an inadequate basis for screening. The tails of the distributions are not presented so that one cannot tell how many false positives and false negatives would occur if some score(s) was adopted as a screening decision point. (2) Even if the score(s) did discriminate among groups with respect to driving experience, it says nothing about driving competence. The relationship between experience and competence is unknown. (3) The fact that simulator performance is unrelated to crash and violation experience indicates that it does not adequately screen for real-world driver performance. LEONS. ROB~T~N Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
Recent
Publications
179
Systems Analysis and De&n for Safety: Safety Systems Engineering. David B. Brown. Prentice-
Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J. 07632, xiv, 399 p. $18.95. This text and reference book contains little of the usual survey of safety material such as OSHA, machine guarding, industry standards, or industrial hygiene. Thus as the text for an undergraduate college course in safety systems engineering it has serious problems. The text builds up to the fault tree analysis with appropriate discussion of quantification but leaves many gaps which a first safety course should cover. The first chapters discuss the concepts of control and systems, systems analysis and synthesis, hazard analysis, and cost effectiveness. The quantitative approach, so necessary for significant advances in safety in most practical settings, continues with the presentation of analytical tools including logical analysis, Boolean algebra, and probabilistic and reliability concepts. The question arises whether probability, statistics, and reliability have been covered in sufficient depth to avoid the danger of “a little knowledge.” My feeling is that they have not; either the student knows these concepts, in which case the material is superfluous (though review exercises may be desirable), or he does not, in which case the superficial coverage provided is not enough. The quantitative techniques which structure the analysis of risk allow useful prediction to be made after one or more iterations and analyses of data inputs for sensitivity. As a text, this book seems somewhat academic in that is is not supported well enough by realistic, obvious applications, and these techniques might be seen as valuable only to large organizations. Editing failed to remove literally dozens of typographical and content errors. Most chapters have selected references and questions or problems, and a teacher’s manual providing answers to most questions is also available. But again, the number of errors makes this of limited usefulness. In addition, a computer program included in an appendix has obvious errors and will not run as listed. While this text has some problems, I continue to use it for its good coverage of the fault tree technique, and supplement it generously with outside readings. I think sophisticated safety systems approaches will be increasingly necessary as reporting requirements, analysis of subtle hazards, and health and safety liability considerations continue to increase in importance. Safety staffs require improved tools and increasingly competent personnel. Prestige and respect are earned through competence, and increased emphasis on quantification in the safety profession at the undergraduate college level is a necessary step in this development. Brown’s book contributes to this goal. R. A. OLSEN The Pennsylvania State University
BRIEF NOTICES Accidents are Colour-Blind: Industrial Accidents and the Immigrant Worker; A Pilot Study. By G. L. Lee and K. J. Wrench. Birmingham Community Relations Council, 37 Bennetts Hill, Birmingham B2 5SN, England, April 1977. 24 p. Free. Full report available from the Community Relations Commission, 15/16 Bedford St., London WC2E 9HX.
This is a study of accident rates among immigrant workers in five firms in the Birmingham area. The firms included a textile firm, a small engineering company, a larger engineering organization, a drop forge and a rod mill. The study attempted to compare the accident rates of indigenous workers and different ethnic groups within the same job categories, although this proved difficult since indigeneous workers and immigrants tended to fall into different job categories. The data were analyzed using as var;Ables: ethnic origin (but not exclusively first-generation immigrants), sex, type of work, type of industry and environmental context of the job. A limitation of the study is that no analysis could be done using age as a variable because of the small numbers involved. Sex proved to be a more significant factor than ethnic
GW1-4575/7810601-0)177/~2
IO. PP 177-181 m Great Bnim
M/O
. I!?78Pnnted
RECENT PUBLICATIONS Recent Publications is a regular feature of Accident Analysis and Prevention, and will expand its coverage to include full-length reviews and brief notices. Particular attention will be paid to research published outside of North Amen’ca, and to agency reports. Anyone who wishes to review books is invited to submit his name, areas of interest and language competencies. A sheet of guidelines for book reviews is available upon request. Publishers and authors are invited to submit material for review. All reviews, publications and inquiries should be directed to: Del Sweeney, Book Review Editor Accident Analysis and Prevention Pennsylvania Transportation Institute Research Building B University Park, PA 16802, U.S.A.
Hazard Control Policy In Britain. John C. Chicken. Pergamon Press, Oxford/New York, 1975, 193 p. $14.50. In the last years the interest in risk questions has increased substantially both in the public opinion and among scientists. The discussion and research about road traffic safety has been rather intense for some decades. Lately the risk problems about nuclear power reactors and new chemical products have aroused both a vivid public discussion and in a way new problems about how to deal with uncertainties of different kinds. The research about risk and hazard problems has mainly been going along two lines, the more traditional technical-statistical one concerned with measuring and calculating risks and the recent more psychological one dealing with how individuals, groups and society react towar.ls risks. But there is also another very important aspect of risk, namely the structure in which the risk policy of the society is formed. Thus given some risks and assuming we know about people’s reaction to these risks, try to describe the structure and relations of the risk decisive body of the society. This can be said to be the main issue of the book by John C. Chicken. Sometimes discussion about risk tends to be rather abstract and apart from the practical problems. In his book, Chicken has avoided this by considering through all the chapters five cases: road transport, air transport, factories, nuclear power reactors and air contamination. Further on he has concentrated solely on the situation in Britain, thus limiting partly a more universal validity of his conclusions. The cases are chosen to cover different degrees of private-public ownership and control and modern-older technology. The book consists of five chapters: introduction, the nature of hazards, hazard control policy, the role of interest groups, conclusions and lastly references and some appendices. In the second chapter the author defines hazards and mentions the possible unequal distribution of hazards. Then he tries to state what is meant by an acceptable level of hazard by comparing new hazards with ‘accepted’ old ones. Even if such a comparison can illustrate the risk level it is dubious if it can or should govern our hazard policy. Whether one likes it or not it is a fact that the public often reacts towards new risks differently from what one should expect by such comparisons. In the treatment of hazard control policy the author uses a system-theoretical standpoint in describing the policy making system. The side conditions are set by economic systems, foreign political systems and the current state of knowledge. 117
178
Recent Publications
The interacting parts of the system are political parties, interest groups, the ruling bodies of the country, all these in communication with the public opinion and giving rise to legislation and implementation. He then uses this framework both in a general description of hazard policy making in Britain and for the five case studies, which turns out to be a fruitful and interesting way of approach. The role of interest groups for the five cases is given its own chapter containing a vivid and clear description of both the interest groups themselves and their influence. The limitation to British conditions, however, makes the content somewhat special for a foreign reader. In the last chapter the author draws some conclusions from the preceding analysis. He argues for a more coordinated view on different hazards and he envisages a development where the risk problems of rapid technological development will be important and of increasing interest. Altogether, the author looks at some earlier rather neglected parts of risk, i.e. hazard policy making and he gives many interesting viewpoints on the risk policy of Britain, in particular for the well-known cases mentioned above. Being rather untechnical the book can be recommended for anyone interested in problems about risk and risk policy. TOWORN THED~EN
University of Stockholm
The Simulator As a Driver Testing Device. John F. O’Brien. New York State Department of Motor Vehicles. Albany, New York 12228, August, 1977. The New York Department of Motor Vehicles undertook this study of the use of simulators as a possible alternative to, or pretest for, road testing in original licensing or license reexamination. The simulator consisted of a 28 minute motion picture of typical driving situations placed in front of a driver’s seat equipped with ordinary car controls. The study compared average scores on various aspects of driver reaction to situations on the simulator among five groups of drivers: (1) less than six months of on-road experience and no simulator experience, (2) less than six months on-road experience and simulator experience, (3) greater than six months on-road experience and no simulator experience, (4) greater than six months on-road experience and simulator experience, (5) professional drivers. In addition, average simulator scores were compared among drivers according to groupings of crash and violation points. The study found a number of average differences in simulated performance among the five groups of drivers which were statistically significant at the 0.05 or lower levels. Only one of thirty-nine comparisons of simulator performance was significant among groups with no points, 1 l-2 points, and 3 or more points on their crash and violation records. The study concludes that a simulator can be used to screen for road tests of prospective new licensees or as a tool in reexamination of licensed drivers. That conclusion is not justified by the study’s results for three reasons: (1) Statistical significance is an inadequate basis for screening. The tails of the distributions are not presented so that one cannot tell how many false positives and false negatives would occur if some score(s) was adopted as a screening decision point. (2) Even if the score(s) did discriminate among groups with respect to driving experience, it says nothing about driving competence. The relationship between experience and competence is unknown. (3) The fact that simulator performance is unrelated to crash and violation experience indicates that it does not adequately screen for real-world driver performance. LEONS. ROB~T~N Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
Recent
Publications
179
Systems Analysis and De&n for Safety: Safety Systems Engineering. David B. Brown. Prentice-
Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J. 07632, xiv, 399 p. $18.95. This text and reference book contains little of the usual survey of safety material such as OSHA, machine guarding, industry standards, or industrial hygiene. Thus as the text for an undergraduate college course in safety systems engineering it has serious problems. The text builds up to the fault tree analysis with appropriate discussion of quantification but leaves many gaps which a first safety course should cover. The first chapters discuss the concepts of control and systems, systems analysis and synthesis, hazard analysis, and cost effectiveness. The quantitative approach, so necessary for significant advances in safety in most practical settings, continues with the presentation of analytical tools including logical analysis, Boolean algebra, and probabilistic and reliability concepts. The question arises whether probability, statistics, and reliability have been covered in sufficient depth to avoid the danger of “a little knowledge.” My feeling is that they have not; either the student knows these concepts, in which case the material is superfluous (though review exercises may be desirable), or he does not, in which case the superficial coverage provided is not enough. The quantitative techniques which structure the analysis of risk allow useful prediction to be made after one or more iterations and analyses of data inputs for sensitivity. As a text, this book seems somewhat academic in that is is not supported well enough by realistic, obvious applications, and these techniques might be seen as valuable only to large organizations. Editing failed to remove literally dozens of typographical and content errors. Most chapters have selected references and questions or problems, and a teacher’s manual providing answers to most questions is also available. But again, the number of errors makes this of limited usefulness. In addition, a computer program included in an appendix has obvious errors and will not run as listed. While this text has some problems, I continue to use it for its good coverage of the fault tree technique, and supplement it generously with outside readings. I think sophisticated safety systems approaches will be increasingly necessary as reporting requirements, analysis of subtle hazards, and health and safety liability considerations continue to increase in importance. Safety staffs require improved tools and increasingly competent personnel. Prestige and respect are earned through competence, and increased emphasis on quantification in the safety profession at the undergraduate college level is a necessary step in this development. Brown’s book contributes to this goal. R. A. OLSEN The Pennsylvania State University
BRIEF NOTICES Accidents are Colour-Blind: Industrial Accidents and the Immigrant Worker; A Pilot Study. By G. L. Lee and K. J. Wrench. Birmingham Community Relations Council, 37 Bennetts Hill, Birmingham B2 5SN, England, April 1977. 24 p. Free. Full report available from the Community Relations Commission, 15/16 Bedford St., London WC2E 9HX.
This is a study of accident rates among immigrant workers in five firms in the Birmingham area. The firms included a textile firm, a small engineering company, a larger engineering organization, a drop forge and a rod mill. The study attempted to compare the accident rates of indigenous workers and different ethnic groups within the same job categories, although this proved difficult since indigeneous workers and immigrants tended to fall into different job categories. The data were analyzed using as var;Ables: ethnic origin (but not exclusively first-generation immigrants), sex, type of work, type of industry and environmental context of the job. A limitation of the study is that no analysis could be done using age as a variable because of the small numbers involved. Sex proved to be a more significant factor than ethnic