Highway emissions of regulated and some unregulated exhaust components in west Germany from 1970 to 2010

The Science of the Total Environment, 93 (1990) 9-20 Elsevier

HIGHWAY

EMISSIONS

OF

9

REGULATED

AND

SOME

UNREGULATED

EXHAUST

C O M P O N E N T S IN W E S T G E R M A N Y F R O M 1970 TO 2010

N. METZ, E n g i n e D e v e l o p m e n t Department,

EA-35,

BMW AG,

P e t u e l r i n g 130,

8 M u n i c h 40, G e r m a n y

SUMMARY On the b a s i s of actual r e g i s t r a t i o n n u m b e r s of p a s s e n g e r cars s u b d i v e d in the n u m b e r s of g a s o l i n e cars w i t h o u t and w i t h c a t a l y s t and d i e s e l cars, all s u b d i v i d e d in 3 d i s p l a c e m e n t c a t e g o r i e s and the c o r r e s p o n d i n g a v e r a g e y e a r l y mileage as well as c o r r e s p o n d i n g emission r a t e s on highways. BMW d e v e l o p e d a m a t h e m a t i c a l model to c a l c u l a t e the e x h a u s t e m i s s i o n s of p a s s e n g e r cars for CO, HC, NOx, P a r t i c u l a t e s , SO~, Benzene, PAH and CO 2 . The d a t a b a s e for e m i s s i o n s rates starts at 1970 and is a v a i l a b l e to 1985, for r e g i s t r a t i o n n u m b e r s up to 1989. For the f o l l o w i n g y e a r s a s s u m p t i o n s on the b a s i s of m a t h e m a t i c a l functions and of l e g i s l a t i v e c h a n g e s and e n g i n e d e v e l o p m e n t are m a d e up to 2010. For the m o s t c o m p o n e n t s i n v e s t i g a t e d the e m i s s i o n is g o i n g down s i g n i f i c a n t l y . The v e h i c l e s b e t w e e n 1.4 to 2 1 are the m a i n emitters, v e h i c l e s a b o v e 2 1 due to the a l r e a d y e f f e c t i v e use of catalyst are the l o w e s t emitters.

INTRODUCTION L i t t l e is k n o w n For

1985

a b o u t the d e v e l o p m e n t

an e x t e n s i v e

experiment

for CO, HC, NOx,

SO 2 and lead

benzene

as well

and PAH,

led to

of e m i s s i o n s a well

as for CO2,

only

base

is n e c e s s a r y

to

for

few d a t a

are available.

one i m p o r t a n t

t a s k is to get

the mileage of the d i f f e r e n t d i s p l a c e m e n t c a t e g o r i e s which

data

[18]. But for total p a r t i c u l a t e s ,

For a r e l i a b l e e m i s s i o n d e t e r m i n a t i o n

s t i o n type,

on highways.

founded

h a v e the

for each combu-

relative

corresponding

f i g u r e for the e m i s s i o n rate. T h e r e f o r e BMW d e v e l o p e d this model to come to an a d v a n c e d d a t a b a s e for future estimations.

METHODS With

respect

to

a

realistic

estimation

p a s s e n g e r cars in W e s t G e r m a n y Fig.

0048-9697/90/$03.50

of

the

emissions

I shows the approach:

© 1990 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.

of

i0

E .(G)

E

<1.4

E

Jr

E

+ !1.4 - 2

YOC 16

>2

eTOV+ eEUDC

E >2=i__~YOCRi,YOC;>2" fdlYOC;>2 • my i YOC;>2" T (YOC)- e~,YOC;>2

e=

CT = Combustion type DV = Displacementvolume YOC = Year of calculation YOR = Year of registration TOS = Type of street

E = Emission t/a = f ( C T D V Y O C (YOR) TOS) H = Highway G = Gasoline PC without catalyst C = Catalyst PC D = Diesel PC

I

R = Number of registered PCs = f(CT, DVYOC (YOR))

eTOV= ~(eklO~ eM) (115 60)+ eM2

fd = Frequency distribution % =f ( CT DV YOC )

V = lOOkm/h constant

eklO0 =

my = Yearlyaverage milage km = f(CT DV,YOR YOC)

e

T = Percent Highway operation % = f ( YOC )

= TUV Driv Cycle vm = 60 km/h

M2 eEUl~= Highwaypart of EUDC

e = Emissionrate g/km = f (CT DV YOR YOC TOS)

Fig. i. Methodical approach The

emission

addition

of

and diesel cars. into

three

frequency

registered each

of

the

is

categories

from

distribution

cars d e p e n d e n d

combustion

type

emission rate

due

to

recently proposed Emission

new

year year

(e)

(fd)~ which

and

of of

the

type is subdivided recent

exhaust

results

the

gas

from the

corresponding

registered

results

from their age,

from

with catalyst

volume.

of

from

the

cars

(R),

number

of

the average y e a r l y mileage

displacement

category

(my),

and

the

(T). is

determined

as a mean

between

the

and the h i g h w a y p a r t

European extra urban d r i v i n g

well

of the

cycle.

for each c o m b u s t i o n

type,

volume and depend on the year of registration

calculation. calculation

Therefore has to

be

the

in West Germany.

frequency

determined.

and mileage also depend on the type of road. on h i g h w a y s

derived

and

the number

rate and mileage are d i f f e r e n t

for each d i s p l a c e m e n t for each

the

mileage

p r o v e d emission rate of the TUV R h e i n l a n d

and the

be

catalysts,

type the emission

relevant

derived

part of h i g h w a y o p e r a t i o n The

can

rate for the c o m p l y i n g d i s p l a c e m e n t

The mileage

of

highways

For each c o m b u s t i o n

multiplication

the

on

of cars w i t h o u t

The e m i s s i o n of each c o m b u s t i o n

displacement

legislation. emission

cars

of the emissions

distribution Emission

rate

This paper concentrates

12

10

-

--

1990

%

~1960

8

6

4

2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 6 9 10111213141516 1

A g e in years

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

Y e a r s after Certification

Fig. 5. Development of o n e registration year

Fig. 4. Frequency distribution

Another number

aspect

of cars

example

to

take

of one

into

account

registration

of two years.

Due

is

the

way

y e a r develops.

to accidents,

sales

in

Fig.

in

curve

dependence

mathematical

demonstrates.

This c u r v e

on

of

the

year

functions

and

is also

calculation.

reasonable

is d e c r e a s i n g

means

registration

an

countries,

slightly

By

the

5 gives

in o t h e r

s c r a p i n g and o t h e r reasons the n u m b e r w i t h i n 21 y e a r s like the

which

changing of

these

figures

it

is

p o s s i b l e to p r e d i c t the future d e v e l o p m e n t of the car fleet. With

all

polated

to

this

information

the y e a r

2010

combustion

types.

of one

is d e c r e a s i n g

car

Despite

the

mileage [3,

for all the

cars

fact that

because

of the

5,

together the

6]

can

and

for

average

increasing

be

different

yearly number

on n e a r l y c o n s t a n t roads the w h o l e miieage t o d a y is still until the y e a r 2000

extra-

mileage of

cars

increasing

[3, 5] then s l i g h t l y decreasing. The mileage has to be classi-

500

450 ~

[

(

4oo lo9 m (

I

350 ~ 300__ 250 _ _

'

fied in the t h r e e c o m b u s t i o n types and the three d i s p l a c e m e n t volumes,

' <1.41

~

the c o m i n g

1.4-21

,

mileage-development

, >21

200 . . . . ,

Diesel P C

100 _

-

7

to

~ J/-/~f'~

1.4

tion

0

comes 1980

1990

is

the

shown

i,

1.4

to

2

1

and

a b o v e 2 i. The m a i n contribu-

5O

1970

6. For

cars

r e l a t i v e to the c a t e g o r i e s up

Catalyst PC _ - - ~ /

150 _ _

see Fig.

catalyst

2000

Fig. 6. Development of POC Milssge

2010

to

of

catalyst

from

the

cars

today

category

1.4

2 i. The mil~age for gaso-

line cars is d e c r e a s i n g stea-

13 dily

(not

shown

in the

graph)while

the

mileage

for diesel

quite stable on a lower level c o m p a r e d with all g a s o l i n e

cars

is

cars.

4O <

~~,

Since

1.41

the

average

mileage is also

3 25

0

>21 •

20 15

year

of

car

type,

registration Fig.

example

the

average

yearly

Cars

and

0

years 2

0

4

6

8

10

12

14

each as

an

of

the

for

the

for

all

1985

volumes

the

of gasoline cars

in the

above 2 i. In the first

the

16 .

zs quite

Age in years

mileage

for diesel

category

for

shows

year

displacement

5

7

on

development

registration

10

yearly

dependent

average high

yearly

and when

mileage

cars get

older the mileage decreases. Fig. 7. Average Yearly Mirage The mileage d i s t r i b u t i o n 2, 3],

partly

highways

is slightly

The mileage d r i v e n stion type, order

to

is derived partly

from c a l c u l a t i o n s but

[7,

steadily

on highway

the

correct

from m e a s u r e m e n t s until

to be c o n s i d e r e d volume

figure

for

[i,

share of the mileage on

increasing

has

for each d i s p l a c e m e n t

have

8]. The

the year for each

and c e r t i f i c a t i o n the

2010. combu-

year

corresponding

in

emission

rate. The

emission

influenced 1970,

by

13].

For

by aging

Rheinland

rate

depends

emission of

the

on

the

standards car

which

and by

highway-operation

there

[14,

of

[18] and comany

15,

16,

17],

internal

data

type

the

have mode

is

the

[19]

of

a

so

combustion been

of

as well

changing

operation

data

called

and

base

of

is

since

[ii,

12,

the

TUV

"Abgas-Gro~versuch"

as data

from

literature

[20 to 46]. For

the

highway existing

data

Rheinland polated constant with

determination

operation

of

several

base

for

the

the

emission

was m o d i f i e d

as shown

from an a v e r a g e

speed

speed of

values

of

d r i v i n g cycle. in W e s t G e r m a n y

corresponding

approaches

are rate

in Fig.

of 60

emission

possible. the

approach

i. The values

(T0V-Driving

rate

for

to

the

from

TOV

Due were

cycle M2)

extraover

a

i00 km/h to a speed of 115 km/h and are combined

the

highwaypart

115 km/h

of

is assumed

the

new

extra

urban

as a n average speed

for the time period considered.

European

on highways

14 For

the

shown

component

as

an

emission

CO

the

example,

see

of cars were

average Fig.

fleet

8.

dependent

In

emission

the

on inertia

~l

Fleet-Emission rates

__ J

25

C

20

O

15

g

on highways

;

_ _ _ [ J

years

1970

classes,

lead

to

cars

emit

more,

than

the

diesel

I~[:~11[~il I / ~ I N I ~ 1[~-/>21Gasol. J~. -/1,4.-2_1 Gasol. /,

Catalyst

.passenger

smaller

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

cars

similar,

for

8 C O - F l e e t - E m i s s i o n rates

less (No and

shown.)

For

the

picture

for

emission

NOx

the

rates

are

times higher

than

catalyst

three times Fig.

cars

to

catalyst

is

looks

on

class.

for

three

the

which

allowed

middle

components

cars a b o u t

1988

categories.

were

other

diesel

is

a dependence

subdivision

-

to

displacement

Bigger

m

highways

weight

also the

on

cars,

but

still

l o w e r than gaso-

line e m i s s i o n

rates.

RESULTS Fig. tion

of

9 shows

the d e v e l o p m e n t

all the

CTs,

distribution significant

and and

milage

for CO on h i g h w a y s

number

for

each

of

registrated

year.

is in 2000 only a b o u t

The e m i s s i o n - v a l u e versuch"

DVs,

for

1985 d e r i v e d

for 1985 was h i g h e r

The

under

cars,

decrease

considera-

the

1/4 of the e m i s s i o n from

due to the

the so

fact that

called

of today.

for the d i s p l a c e categories

below

m i

1,0 __./ 0,9 _ / 0,8 _ /

106tC0/a

1.4

also

i,

and

between

1.4

and 2 i, the T0Vexperts

0,7 _ /

I

0,6

I i o n

0,5 / 0,4 _ /

/

used

emission

i

which

0,2 _ / 0,1 _ /

0,0

2 // r

I

1970

1975

I 1980

1985

I 1989

I 1995 2000

I

I 2005 2010

~"

tithan

those

in

the

other

category

above

2 1 and al-

so

the

those

emission

[17,

of

which

measured

ventory of C O - E m i s s i o n

2

higher

were

9. D e v e l o p m e n t

factors

were

mes

0,3 _ /

Fig.

is

"AbgasgroB-

ment C 0

relevant

in e m i s s i o n

in in-

for 1985

18].

15 Fig. the

i0

shows

development

for HC. D e p e n d i n g 100

on

103t HC / a

[

•

80

the

in

HIGHWAY]

increase

the

vehicle

n u m b e r and mileage on

60

highways

lower 40

but

emission

r a t e s the m a x i m u m emission

20

in

occurs

1980.

In

the

y e a r 2000 the HC-

0

e m i s s i o n will 1970

1975

1980

1985

1989

1995

2000

2005

2010

h a v e r e a c h e d 33 % of of

the

emission

today.

In

the

y e a r 2010 the red u c t i o n will be Fig.

I0. D e v e l o p m e n t of H C - E m i s S i o n

81%. Fig.

ii

shows

/

400

the

350

for

development

300

reached a plateau

NO x.

NO x has

since 1980 becau-

250

se of an increase

200

in mileage and 150

increased

100

of diesel cars on

50 0

an

number

the

I

I 1970

I 1975

I 1980

I 1985

[ 1989

1995

I 2000

I 2005

one

lower

hand

and

NOx-emis-

sion rates on the

2010

o t h e r hand.

Fig.

But 2000

ii. D e v e l o p m e n t of N O x - E m i s s i o n

already the

will reach already

next

emission 83 %.

starting

i n c r e a s e d mirage.

year will

the be

decrease 34

Prognoses in

1987,

% of

is

starting

today's,

in

c a r r i e d out earlier, due

to

an

significantly. 2010 the

In

reduction

found the d e c r e a s e

underestimation

of

the

16

Fig.

10_

3 ..... ........... !0 t part!cuate/a

9 _

m e n t of p a r t i c u l a t e s Gasoline PC

line

~

DIESEL PC

cars

~

DPC,LOWS

8 .......................

~

7 ............................ 6 _ S c e n a r i o ! .................... 5 0,05 % S from 1995 ......... ~..............

4 ............................

12 shows the d e v e l o p -

and on

ge

.............

since

emission

tion

1

the

of

!

steps:

the

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

level

of

a

lead

-

T h e n a reduc-

lead

took

In

to

particle

- especially

gasoline

0

Due

i n c r e a s e in milea-

1970

was increasing. 2

passenger

highways.

significant

f=====]all together

of gaso-

diesel

content

place

in

in two

1972

from

a

field

0.55

g/l

fuel

to

less than 0.4 g/l fuel and in Fig.

12 D e v e l o p m e n t of P M - E m i s s i o n

1976 to a level less than 0.15

almost

half

of the g a s o l i n e

c o r r e s p o n d i n g lead e m i s s i o n But

on the

other hand

sold

g/l

gasoline.

in W e s t - G e r m a n y

is t h e r e f o r e

the p a r t i c l e

going

emission

Nowadays

is unleaded.

down

The

significantly.

increase

- especially

of d i e s e l s - is not total c o m p e n s a t e d by lower e m i s s i o n r a t e s of the new d i e s e l

engines

because

since 1977

and the

extraordinary high

ther progress dards,

valid

of the

in low p a r t i c l e from

1990 will

increasing

interests

sales in 1986 and

emission

and s t r o n g e r

lead to a p a r t i c l e

than

0.05

today.

% from

1995 w i t h

particle reduction to

be

taken

For

into

the

scenario

a resulting

in 2000 will account

that

sulfur

content

particle

the

share

in

reduction

of

1987.

emission

be 53 %, in 2010

Furstan-

decrease.

in 2010 59 % diesel of

71%.

the

diesels

particle

In 2000 the p a r t i c l e e m i s s i o n is t h e r e f o r e 36 % lower, lower

in

fuel

30 %, the But

diesel

it has

passenger

cars on the p a r t i c l e e m i s s i o n of all s o u r c e s is lower than 2 %. 12

Fig. 10 t 8 0 2 / a

10

J

13

shows

SO=-development

of The

all

I []

Gasoline PC

passenger

[]

Catalyst PC

t r i b u t i o n to the S O , - e m i s s i o n

[]

DIESEL PC

8 6

of Low D S

all

too.

cars.

the

sources The

increasing

con-

is v e r y

low,

development due

desulfurizlation

to

the of

is last

diesel

fuel in 1978 and an u n c h a n g e d sulfur o

content

since 1975. 1970

Fig.

1980

1990

2000

2010

13. S O , - E m i s s i o n D e v e l o p m e n t

crease

is

in

gasoline

In 2000 the in26

%,

in

2010

4

%

17 are left.

Two scenarios

in 95 the

sulfur

by weight.

The

gasoline

will

be

the

that

immediately

second be

have been added.

content

in diesel

assumes

lowered

emission

The first one assumes that

fuel will

that

in

2000

be the

to 0.05

% by weight.

SO=

the

of

of

after i n t r o d u c t i o n

lowered

whole

to 0.05

sulfur

The

fleet

content

advantage will

be

% of

would

reduced

of the low sulfur fuel. Fig.

14 shows the develop-

7_

103t Benzene / a

[ ] Gasoline PC

ment

[ ] Catalyst PC

component

of

more

[ ] Diesel PC

in

better

2010

is

decrea-

significantly.

2000

the

in new engines the

emission

reduced 2000

a

content

sing

1990

to

and

and the

to 1989, 1980

Due

cars

benzene

combustion

1970

critical

nowadays

benzene i

more

benzene.

catalyst

lower fuel

the

Compared

the emission will be to

and

29

%

to

in the

11.5

%

year

in

the

year 2010. Fig. 14. Benzene-Emission Development Fig. namely, these

15 shows the

trend

the p o l y n u c l e a r compounds

The c o n s i d e r e d

almost

for another

critical

aromatic hydrocarbons. as

PAH include

effectively fluoren,

as

the

other

phenanthren, anthen,

14 _

group

of compounds

The c a t a l y s t

hydrocarbons.

anthracen,

pyren,

reduces fluor-

chrysen,

benzo

(a)anthracen,benzo(b)fluor-

12 ~ t P A H / a

[] GasolinePC

anthen,

7 1 1 1 10 ~ i ~

[] CatalystPC [] D i e s e l P C

(a) pyres, perylen, indeno (i, 2, 3-d)pyren, b e n z o - ( g h i ) p e r y l e n

8

benzo(e)pyren,

and coronen.

6

The

compounds

contribute 50

PAH-emission. 2

emission lower,

0

than

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Fig. 15. PAH-~aission Development

first

more

than

1989.

will

in 2010 the

benzo

% to In be

already

the

total

2000 by

by 7 1 %

emission

three

the 54

%

lower

value

in

18 Finally tracts

we

more

fect,

see

come

Fig.

anthrapogenic cessary bility

is

16.

development its

While'the

the a d v a n c e d even

increase

changes

contribution lower

CO 2

this

I0

take

until

their

sions

energy

cost

1970

1980

1990

gen

|

2000

2010

Fig.

16.

CO 2 - E m i s s i o n

re-

CO2-emis-

sources

way

traffic

is

near

re-

of

carriers,

of

is a

way

of

the

the be the hydro-

in cars

inlikely

to One

for would

technology

that

with

problem.

introduction |

any

to

effective

the

source

i

respect

5 %. C o m p a r e d

effective

0

the ne-

Without

of t h e s e

solve

5

this

reduction

more

to be

responsi-

CO2-emissions

the

10

cars

might

In

generative

20

ef-

possibilities

duce

[ ] GasolinePC [ ] CatalystPC [ ] DieselPC

at-

2000.

is a b o u t other

35m

recently

greenhouse

it

contribution.

emissions

in 2010 the d e c r e a s e

30 ~_ 25 106t C02/a

the

%,

countries

low

in

which

to

of p a s s e n g e r

than

industrial

small

of

contribution

is

decrease a

additional

the for

C02-emission

that to

there

to

attention

but

for

the

future.

Development

CONCLUSIONS The

introduction

duction all

of c a t a l y s t

of new d i e s e l

relevant

passenger

passenger

pollutant

despite

cars

cars and the e m i s s i o n

reduce

the

the e x h a u s t

increase

in the

re-

emission

number

of

of

cars

a n d t h e i r mileage not only on highways. The r e d u c t i o n CO is 86 %,

of the r e g u l a t e d

for HC is 8 1 % ,

45 %, w i t h a low s u l f u r The d e v e l o p m e n t

fuel even

slightly

increase

decrease

to 48 %. B e n z e n e

29 %. The d e c r e a s e

to will

from 1989 to 2010

is 83 % and for

for

particulates

is

71%.

of the u n r e g u l a t e d

SO 2 will

to

components

for N O x

4 %,

components

with a

decrease

of CO 2 is 5.7

is as follows:

low s u l f u r

to

fuel

i0 %, PAH will

% and thus

SO,

will

decrease

r a t h e r moderate.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I help K.

acknowledge in d e v e l o p i n g

Brandelik

mathematical

for model

and

express

the their

my

gratitude

mathematical efforts

and the q u a l i t y

model

to

to

U.

as well

improve

assurance

the

Stanski as R.

for

his

D6ngen

and

handling

of

the

of the c a l c u l a % i o n s .

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