Technological Forecasting & Social Change 151 (2020) 119744
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How to improve the competiveness of distributed energy resources in China with blockchain technology
T
Hou Jianchao , Wang Che, Luo Sai ⁎
College of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China
ARTICLE INFO
ABSTRACT
Keywords: Distributed energy resources Blockchain technology Michael Porter five forces model SWOT model
Distributed energy resources are located near users, which can realize energy cascade utilization and improve the energy utilization efficiency. The features of distributed ledgers and smart contract auto-execution possessed by blockchain technology are in line with the requirements of distributed energy resources in billing and settlement, which provides a direction for the application of blockchain technology in the distributed energy resources. The integration of distributed energy resources in China with blockchain technology may break the existing pattern where the production, transportation, distribution and sales of energy are centralized. This paper first summarizes the current status of distributed energy resources in China and blockchain technology, and then uses the Michael Porter five forces model to analyze the competitiveness of distributed energy resources. The rivalry, threat of new entrants, threat of alternatives, bargaining power of suppliers, and bargaining power of buyers in energy industry are presented and analyzed. Based on the competitiveness analysis, the SWOT model is used to analyze the joint development model of “blockchain technology + distributed energy resources”, and the feasibility of blockchain technology applied to distributed energy resources systems is revealed. Finally, the paper puts forward the key conclusions that blockchain technology can enhance the competitiveness of distributed energy resources as well as relevant policy recommendations.
1. Introduction For a long time, the centralized energy resources of China have unique advantages in achieving optimal resource allocation and improving energy efficiency, which has played an important role in promoting economic and social development (Polaris Power Network, 2017). However, the resources, environment, and climate issues have continued to deteriorate; new energy, new equipment, new technologies have developed rapidly (combined cooling heating and power system (CCHP Fig. 1; Pingkuo and Zhongfu, 2016) and distributed photovoltaic technologies, etc. (Polaris Power Network, 2018). These situations lead to the inability of centralized energy sources in terms of transmission loss, utilization efficiency, and environmental pollution (Zhan, 2016). And the advantages of distributed energy resources are demonstrated. The “Distributed Generation Management Measures Consultation Draft” (National Energy Administration) published by the National Energy Administration in 2011 defined distributed generation as (Sisi, 2015; Huang, 2014): distributed energy resources are a power generation facility, a power generation system, or a joint supply system with power output capability and energy cascade utilization characteristic. ⁎
Decentralized energy systems have been extensively discussed in academia (Hirsch et al., 2018; Di Silvestre et al., 2018; Soares et al., 2018). It is in the vicinity of the user's location, not for the purpose of largescale long-distance transmission of electricity. The electricity generated is not only used locally, but also the excess power is sent to the power grid. As it is located in the vicinity of users, the electricity generated by distributed energy resources can be consumed locally, which reduces transmission and distribution losses (especially for remote areas) and reduces investment in power grid construction. At the same time, some distributed energy resources use the “combined cooling heating and power system” to achieve energy cascade utilization, which can improve energy efficiency (Chudnovsky et al., 2010). In addition, distributed energy resources mainly use clean energy such as solar energy and natural gas, which can reduce air pollutant emissions. At present, China's distributed energy resources are mainly composed of natural gas distributed energy resources and distributed photovoltaics (Jianchao China Distributed Energy Network). The nodes of a distributed energy resources are both energy producers and energy consumers. This feature has caused many problems like payment issues, measurement issues, etc. Blockchain technology offers opportunities to solve these problems.
Corresponding author. E-mail address:
[email protected] (J. Hou).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119744 Received 13 September 2018; Received in revised form 19 May 2019; Accepted 9 September 2019 0040-1625/ © 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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industry (Sikorski et al., 2017) and emission trading (Khaqqi et al., 2018). In the future, the integration of blockchain technology and distributed energy resources will probably break the existing pattern of concentrated energy production, transmission, distribution and sell, which is expected to subvert the traditional business models and profit models of energy companies in China. Therefore, the research of blockchain technology will be beneficial to promote the development of distributed energy resources in China. The geographical location of most of the areas covered in this paper is shown in Fig. 2. 2. Status quo 2.1. Distributed energy resources 2.1.1. Natural gas distributed energy As of the end of 2015, about 288 projects have been built or under construction for natural gas distributed energy in China, with an installed capacity of about 11.12 GW. Among them, there are 133 buildings distributed energy, with installed capacity of about 0.23 GW; and 155 regional distributed energy, with installed capacity of 10.89 GW. The main users are industrial parks, ecological parks, integrated commercial buildings, data centers, schools, transportation hubs, office buildings, etc., of which the industrial park has the highest proportion of installed capacity and accounts for about 76.3% of the total installed capacity. By the end of 2016, 51 natural gas distributed energy projects had been built and started operation, with an installed capacity of 3.82 GW (Mainly located provinces and cities as displayed in Table 2). Judging from all regions of the country, the sum of installed capacity in the Yangtze River Delta, Sichuan-Chongqing region, BeijingTianjin-Hebei, and the Pearl River Delta accounted for approximately 75.9% of the country's total installed capacity. However, in 2016, the cumulative installed capacity of distributed natural gas in China was 12 GW, which was less than 2% of the country's total installed capacity (Zhengping, 2017).
Fig. 1. The CCHP system of typical distributed gas turbine. Source: (Pingkuo and Zhongfu, 2016).
In 2008, with the release of Bitcoin and the publication of Satoshi Nakamoto's paper “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System” (Satoshi, 2009), the blockchain technology, as a basic core technology of the Bitcoin system, began to be noticed. Blockchains are shared and distributed data structures or ledgers that can securely store digital transactions without using a central point of authority (Andoni et al., 2019), it is a distributed ledger leveraging consensus procedures and cryptographic security (Ahla et al., 2019). In other words, blockchain technology is an open, transparent, decentralized database (Swan, 2015). Openness and transparency are reflected in that the database is shared and monitored by all network nodes (Ning et al., 2016); decentralization is reflected in that the database can be viewed as a large, interactive spreadsheet, and all participants can access, update and confirm that the data is authentic and reliable. The first application of the blockchain technology was to achieve decentralization of currency and payment instruments (Wright and De Filippi, 2015). Since the blockchain technology has the transparency and reliability of data, its application also extends from a single currency to different types of assets. And the blockchain technology attempts to decentralize the entire market by recording the transactions in the form of creating asset values. The specific applications include smart contracts, smart assets, decentralized applications, and decentralized autonomous enterprises (Dawei, 2016). When blockchain technology is applied to distributed energy resources, distributed energy resources systems can become more efficient, cost less, responsive, and more diverse in energy supply and service. The distributed network structure of blockchain technology happens to coincide with the market-oriented structure of distributed energy resources. (Table 1 compares the concept of blockchain and distributed energy resources) (Ming et al., 2017). The features of distributed ledgers and smart contract auto-execution possessed by blockchain technology are in line with the requirements of distributed energy resources in billing and settlement, which provides a direction for the application of blockchain technology in distributed energy resources (Hou et al., 2018). It is a promising scenario to adopt blockchain in distributed energy market, such as the notable implementation of Brooklyn micro-grid (Mengelkamp et al., 2018) and other pioneering applications of blockchain technology in the chemical
2.1.2. Distributed photovoltaic As of the end of 2017, the cumulative installed capacity of China's distributed photovoltaic was 29.66 GW, an increase of 190% over the previous year. In 2017, the new installed capacity of China's distributed photovoltaic was 19.5 GW, an increase of 350% over the previous year, accounting for nearly 40% of the total new installed capacity of photovoltaic. The cumulative grid-connected capacity of distributed photovoltaic in eight provinces exceeded 1 GW, of which Zhejiang and Shandong exceeded 4 GW, Jiangsu and Anhui exceeded 3 GW. The relevant data is displayed in Figs. 3 and 4. 2.2. Blockchain technology 2.2.1. Stages of blockchain technology The application of blockchain technology in China can be divided into three stages: blockchain 1.0, blockchain 2.0 and blockchain 3.0. Blockchain 1.0 (Miaoxuan and Jia, 2018): blockchain technology is mainly applied to virtual currencies represented by Bitcoin. Blockchain 2.0: Blockchain technology is mainly used in other financial fields. It
Table 1 Comparison of the concept of blockchain technology and distributed energy resources. Source: authors. Characteristics
Blockchain technology
Distributed energy resources
Decentralization Cooperative autonomy Marketization Smart contract
Rights and obligations of all nodes are equal. The network are jointly maintained by all nodes. Trust mechanism without third parties. Contract that can be executed automatically
Equal and decentralized decision-making by the various distributed energy sources Coordinated operations between different distributed energy sources Independent trading of all distributed energy sources. Automated trading is everywhere.
2
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Fig. 2. The geographical location of most of the areas covered in this paper. Source: Organized public information. Table 2 Mainly located provinces and cities. Source: Organized public information. Area
Number of projects completed or under construction
Total installed capacity (GW)
Beijing Shanghai Guangdong
17 35 9
4 1.95 2.595
aims to improve the efficiency of bank settlement payment and reduces the cost of cross-border payment; it can also help the exchange to achieve stock registration and transfer. Blockchain 3.0 still remains at the research stage. Blockchain technology is mainly used in industries other than finance, including energy and medical fields, to help solve trust problems and improve system operation efficiency. From 2014 to July 2017, the number of public patents for blockchain technology in China increased from 2 to 428.
Fig. 3. Provinces with cumulative grid-connected capacity of more than 1000 MW in distributed photovoltaic power generation in 2017. Source: Organized public information.
3
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(ICO). In 2017, China's VC project financing amounted to more than 0.1877 billion US dollars, and there were 54 financing events (Fig. 6). In January 2018, the blockchain industry's financing amounted to 0.1005 billion US dollars, and the number of financing events reached 19. As of the first half of 2017, China's ICO raised 0.3843 billion US dollars. Among them, Bitcoin and Ethereum accounted for more than 90% of the total. On September, 2017, the People's Bank of China and other departments issued the “Announcement on Preventing the Risk of Token Issuance Financing” (Chinese government official), which defined ICO as an illegal activity, and the virtual currency exchange was forced to close. Fig. 7 displays the geographical distribution of China's blockchain projects. 2.2.4. Blockchain application 2.2.4.1. Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the most successful blockchain application field by far. The website coinmarketcap.com shows that as of April 10, 2018, the current price per bitcoin was as high as $6728.17. China has the largest number of bitcoin mining pools in the world, and as displayed in the Table 3, eight of the world top ten bitcoin pools are located in China.
Fig. 4. The proportion of China's photovoltaic power generation installed capacity by the end of September 2017. Source: Organized public information.
2.2.2. Blockchain group 2.2.2.1. ChinaLedger. ChinaLedger was established in April 2016. The Alliance Secretariat is located in the Wanxiang Blockchain Labs which belong to the Wanxiang Group.
2.2.4.2. Energy blockchain. In May 2016, the world's first energy blockchain laboratory was established in China. The application scenarios of blockchain were proposed, including demand side management, power metering and market trading.
2.2.2.2. China blockchain research alliance (CBRA). CBRA was established by the Global Shared Financial Forum for 100 (GSF100), and LeTV Financial was appointed director-general of the GSF100.
2.2.4.3. Public welfare. In 2017, Everbright Bank began to apply blockchain technology in “Mother Water Cellar” to realize the supervision of donation information and the traceability of donation fees.
2.2.2.3. Financial blockchain Shenzhen Consortium. The financial blockchain cooperation alliance (Fig. 5) was established in June 2016. The organization has brought together 31 financial companies, including Weizhong Bank, Jingdong Finance, etc.
2.3. Policy environment
2.2.3. Blockchain financing Currently, there are two types of financing methods for blockchain projects: traditional venture capital (VC) and Initial Coin Offering
2.3.1. Distributed energy resources In 2007, “The 11th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development” (National Energy Administration) listed the distributed energy system
Fig. 5. The participating institutions of three major blockchain alliances in China. Source: Organized public information. 4
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Fig. 6. Numbers of China blockchain project financing. Source: Organized public information.
Fig. 7. The geographical distribution of China's blockchain projects. Source: Organized public information.
energy resources for the first time. In 2016, “The “13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development” (Jianchao National Development and Reform Commission) proposed to attach great importance to the development of distributed energy; to speed up the construction of distributed energy projects and natural gas peak-shaving power station; to optimize the solar energy development pattern and prioritize the development of distributed PV. The remaining policies are displayed in Table 4.
Table 3 Distribution and market share of the world's top ten bitcoin pools in 2017. Source: Organized public information. Rank
Country
Mining pool
Proportion
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
China China China China China China Czech Republic Russia China China
AntPool BTC.TOP F2Pool BTC.com ViaBTC BTCC SlushPool BitFury Bixin BW.COM
17.56% 10.81% 9.65% 9.35% 7.79% 6.70% 6.43% 6.22% 5.10% 4.14%
2.3.2. Blockchain technology In October 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the “White Paper on China's Blockchain Technology and Application Development (2016)” (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology), which introduced the blockchain technology in detail. And then in December 2016, the blockchain was first published as a strategic frontier technology and disruptive technology in the in the “Notice of the State Council on Printing and Distributing the National Informationization Plan for the 13th Five-Year Plan” (Jianchao Chinese government official website) issued by the State Council. Other relevant policies are displayed in Table 5.
as the cutting-edge technology for the first time. And then in 2013, “The 12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development” (Jianchao Chinese government official website) proposed to develop distributed energy vigorously, coordinated the comprehensive utilization of traditional energy, new energy and renewable energy as well as achieved the coordinated development of distributed energy resources and centralized energy supply. The plan set clear targets for the development of distributed 5
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Table 4 Related policies on distributed energy. Source: Organized public information. Date
Department
The name of document/announcement
2010 2011 2011
State Grid Corporation of China National Development and Reform Commission The State Council
2012 2012 2012
National Energy Administration Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China National Development and Reform Commission
2013 2013 2013
The State Council National Energy Administration National Energy Administration
2014 2014
National Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Administration, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China National Energy Administration
2014
National Energy Administration
2016 2016 2016 2017.6 2017.7
The State Council National Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Administration National Energy Administration National Development and Reform Commission National Energy Administration
2018.3
National Energy Administration
Technical Regulations for Distributed Power Access to the Power Grid Guidance on the Development of Natural gas distributed energy Notice on Printing and Distributing the Work Plan for Controlling Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the “12th Five-Year Plan” Research Report on the Development Trend of New Energy Industry the “12th Five-Year Plan” for National Urban Gas Development Notice on the Release of the First Batch of National Natural Gas Distributed Energy Demonstration Projects the “12th Five-Year Plan” for Energy Development Interim Management Measures for Distributed Power Generation Notice on Printing and Distributing the Interim Management Measures of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects Detailed Implementation Rules for Natural Gas Distributed Energy Demonstration Project Notice on Further Implementing Policies Related to Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Notice on Promoting the Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Application Demonstration Areas The 13th Five-year Plan for Energy Development The 13th Five-year Plan for Natural Gas The 13th Five-year Plan for Solar Energy Opinions on Accelerating the Use of Natural Gas Guiding Opinions on the Implementation of the 13th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development Guiding Opinions on Energy Work in 2018
3. Competitiveness analysis
State Grid, it is also in a monopoly state, and the problem of gridconnection has always existed (China-heating). This section uses the Michael Porter five forces model (Fig. 8) to analyze competitiveness of the government-led distributed energy resources (Table 7).
At present, the distributed energy resources development in China is still dominated by the government, which is reflected in two aspects: on the one hand, while providing subsidies for some projects under construction, the government controls the pricing power of related electricity prices. For example, the feed-in tariffs of natural gas power generation in China are mostly approved by the government (such as benchmark electricity prices). Once the feed-in tariff is determined, it will remain unchanged for a long time; Changes in upstream fuel prices cannot be delivered to the electricity price end, effectively and timely. In addition, on December 19, 2017, National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on the Price Policy for Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects in 2018" (Jianchao National Development and Reform Commission), stating that the feed-in tariffs of the Resource Area I to III (Table 6 displays China's three types of solar energy resources) were 0.1101, 0.0955, and 0.0808 US dollar/kWh (1 US dollar = 6.8097 RMB), respectively. The electricity price of distributed photovoltaic power generation project, which adopts the mode that all electricity is sold to the grid company and is executed according to the electricity price of the photovoltaic power station in the local resource area. On the other hand, the relevant institutional mechanisms are formulated by the government rather than dominating by the market. For instance, for small-scale natural gas distributed energy projects, it is still very difficult to purchase low-cost natural gas spot through third-party access (TPA) to pipeline network infrastructure. From the perspective of the
3.1. Rivalry 3.1.1. Natural gas distributed energy As a low-carbon fossil energy source, natural gas has stronger power supply stability. In recent years, China has vigorously developed natural gas energy. Natural gas distributed energy achieves energy cascade utilization through the combined cooling heating and power mode, whose comprehensive energy utilization efficiency is above 70% (Song Weiming, 2016). This energy supply mode is near the load center, which saves transmission and distribution investment, improves energy utilization efficiency and reduces the loss in transportation. In addition, natural gas distributed energy is a kind of equipment that can be started and shut down quickly, which achieves the “peak cut” of natural gas and electricity and improves the reliability and safety of energy supply system. However, higher natural gas price and the situation of rich coal, less oil and less gas in China make the cost of natural gas distributed energy generation 2–3 times that of ordinary coal-fired power stations. In addition, owing to the insufficient research of gas generator sets in China, more than 90% of the units need to be imported from abroad (Zhipeng, 2016), which makes it difficult to reduce the total investment of the project.
Table 5 Related policies on blockchain technology. Source: Organized public information. Date
Department
The name of document/announcement
2013.12 2016.12 2017.7 2017.6 2017.9 2017.10
The The The The The The
Notice on Preventing Bitcoin Risk Notice on Printing and Distributing the National Informationization Plan of the 13th Five-Year Plan Notice of the State Council on Printing and Distributing the Development Plan of a New Generation Artificial Intelligence The “13th Five-Year” Development Plan for the Information Technology in China's Financial Industry Announcement on Preventing the Risk of Token Issuance Financing Guidance on Actively Promoting Innovation and Application of Supply Chain
People's Bank of China State Council State Council People's Bank of China People's Bank of China State Council
6
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Table 6 China's three types of solar energy resources. Source: Organized public information. Resource area
Areas
I
Ningxia, Qinghai Haixi, Gansu Jiayuguan, Wuwei, Zhangye, Jiuquan, Dunhuang, Jinchang, Xinjiang Hami, Tacheng, Altay, Karamay, Inner Mongolia except Chifeng, Tongliao, Xing'an League, Hulunbeier Beijing, Tianjin, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Sichuan, Yunnan, Chifeng, Tongliao, Xing'an League, Hulunbeier, Hebei Chengde, Zhangjiakou, Tangshan, Qinhuangdao, Shanxi Datong, Shuozhou, Xinzhou, Yangquan, Shaanxi Yulin, Yan'an, Qinghai, Gansu, Xinjiang other than the Resource Area I Areas except Resource Area I,Resource Area Ⅱ
II III
Fig. 8. Michael Porter five forces model about distributed energy resources in China. Source: authors. Table 7 Summary of competitiveness analysis. Source: authors. Competitiveness analysis
Abstract
Conclusion
Rivalry
Natural gas distributed energy is the most widely used and most efficient distributed energy resources, but it is still limited by the shortage of natural gas resources and the immature core technologies. Distributed photovoltaic is the most widely used renewable distributed energy resources, but it has the problem of unstable power generation and difficult grid-connection. Distributed wind power accounts for only 2% of China's wind power installed capacity, but in recent years, relevant policies has been introduced by the Chinese government to vigorously develop distributed wind power. Raw materials of distributed biomass energy are low in cost and easy to obtain, but current technology costs are high. Centralized energy, which accounts for more than 80% of the country's electricity generation, remains China's main energy. Natural gas resources are scarce; Crystalline silicon in the photovoltaic industry has high technical barriers; Raw materials of biomass energy are readily available. Most industries in China still use centralized energy, and there is insufficient demand for distributed energy resources.
Natural gas distributed energy is the most competitive distributed energy resources, but it should form an energy mix mode with other renewable distributed energy resources.
Threat of new entrants
Threat of alternatives Bargaining power of Suppliers Bargaining power of Buyers
3.1.2. Distributed photovoltaic Two outstanding characteristics, zero-emission and zero-pollution, make solar energy a more useful resource and play an important role in China's energy transformation (Zhou, 2014). The total annual solar radiation in China is 3350–8400 MJ/m2, and the median value (the middlemost value of the total solar radiation in all parts of China) is 5860 MJ/m2, which is equivalent to 24.96 billion tons of standard coal. China's housing construction total area that can be utilized by solar energy systems reached 20.2 billion square meters. According to a conservative estimate of installing 100 W of photovoltaic cells per square meter, there will be an installed capacity of 2 TW, if half of total
At present, new entrants are not competitive enough, but their potential is huge.
Centralized energy are the most competitive energy in China and cannot be replaced in a short time. The bargaining power of natural gas distributed energy and distributed photovoltaic suppliers is strong, and the bargaining power of biomass energy is weak. The bargaining power of buyers is strong.
area is used to install a solar photovoltaic system, it can be equipped with a 1 TW of photovoltaic power generation system. Compared to other forms of power generation such as water and wind, the layout of the distributed photovoltaic power generation system is more flexible and can be installed on the top of buildings (Hou et al., 2018). However, due to the instability of illumination, photovoltaic power generation is unstable, which causes adverse effects on voltage stability, power quality during grid-connection. In addition, the current development of energy storage technology in the photovoltaic industry chain is not mature enough and the economy is not high (Yipeng, 2017).
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3.2. Threat of new entrants 3.2.1. Distributed wind power In May 2017, the “Notice on Relevant Requirements for Accelerating the Construction of Distributed Wind Power Projects” (National Energy Administration) was issued by the National Energy Administration to promote the development of distributed wind power. In addition, the plan announced by Henan Province includes 124 decentralized wind power projects with a total scale of 2.11 GW; the plan announced by Shanxi Province includes 105 decentralized wind power projects with a total installed capacity of 987.3 MW; from 2018 to 2020, Hebei Province plans to develop distributed wind power of 4.3 GW by the end of 2017, the installed capacity of distributed wind power in China accounted for less than 2%. In January 2018, China's first distributed wind power project landed in Liaoning Province with an installed capacity of 7.5 MW. It is estimated that the annual approval scale of distributed wind power in China will exceed 10 GW, and the installed capacity will be installed more than 5 GW per year after 2019. Distributed wind power is suitable for development in low wind speed areas. Central, eastern and southern China are generally in a low wind speed region, the annual average generating equipment availability hours in the wind farm with an annual average wind speed of 5 m/s can reach 2000 h, and there are 1 billion kW of wind energy resources with economic development value in these wind farms whose development potential is extremely huge (Jianchao Polaris Wind Power Grid Network). The three main advantages of distributed wind power are: first, it helps solve the problem of interference caused by wind power access to large power grids (Yucong, 2014); second, distributed wind power is located near the load center, which is conducive to consumption and avoids the problem of “wind curtailment”; third, it solves the problem of energy loss caused by long distance transportation. However, wind power requires a separate site, which increases construction costs (Hejun, 2014).
Fig. 9. The structure chart of China's power generation installed capacity in 2017. Source: Organized public information.
3.3.1.1. Coal. China is rich in coal and is the world's largest coal mining country (Li et al., 2015). The current annual output of coal exceeds 2.5 billion tons, accounting for 40% of the world's total production, half of which is used for power generation. In 2017, the installed capacity of coal-fired power was 1.02 TW, accounting for 58% of the total installed capacity. In terms of power generation, coal-fired power generation was 4200 TWh, accounting for up to 67%, which was the main force of current power generation in China. The advantages of coal power are mature technology, stable and efficient power generation as well as lower cost. But its main disadvantage is that it affects air quality seriously. In recent years, the coal-fired power generation technology in China is at the forefront of the world, e.g., the emission concentration of the third power plant of waigaoqiao is: dust emission is 7.55 mg/m3; sulfur dioxide is 17.7 mg/m3; nitrogen oxide is 15.19 mg/m3, these have reached the gas fuel emission index. In the future, coal power will still the main force of power generation in China (Zhou et al., 2013).
3.2.2. Distributed biomass energy Biomass gas is obtained by converting combustible material such as crop straw and forest waste as raw materials (Jianchao China Distributed Energy Network). Among them, straw accounts for 51% of China's total agricultural output, and its annual output is about 600 million tons, of which about 300 million tons can be used as fuel and it is equivalent to 150 million tons of standard coal. The availability of forestry waste is about 900 million tons per year, of which about 300 million tons have energy utilization value, and it is equivalent to 200 million tons of standard coal. Biomass resources are characterized by diverse sources, low energy density, and scattered distribution, which determine their suitability for the development of distributed energy resources. Distributed biomass energy can be used to build small power stations or as residential gas. However, utilization methods of traditional biogas in China are mainly based on household biogas digesters, with small scale and low efficiency; large and medium-sized biogas projects still have large gaps compared with foreign technologies, and the level of equipment and manufacturing technology is not high (Chuangzhi et al., 2016). At present, large and medium-sized livestock manure biogas projects in China have not been combined with cogeneration, normal temperature fermentation or nearly medium temperature fermentation with external heating source cannot maintain stable gas production in winter and the net energy output rate is very low.
3.3.1.2. Hydropower. Fig. 11 displays the installed capacity and proportion of hydropower in recent years. In 2017, the hydropower generation in China reached 1081.88 TWh, and hydropower installed capacity reached 341.19 GW, accounting for 19% of the country's total installed power capacity. The installed capacity of hydropower resources that can be developed in China is about 660 GW, and the annual power generation is about 3 000 TWh. If running for 100 years, it is equivalent to 100 billion tons of standard coal. Hydropower is second only to coal in the total remaining recoverable amount of conventional energy resources. The hydropower development degree has reached 75% (Jianchao Polaris Wind Power Grid Network). The remaining undeveloped parts include the Yarlung Zangbo River, etc., which will involve international problems in actual development. According to the statistics, the installed capacity and power generation of the hydropower is 2.2 times and 4 times that of wind power respectively; the installed capacity and power generation of hydropower is 2.6 times and 10 times that of photovoltaics respectively. Hydropower is currently the most economical renewable energy source, and the average feed-in tariff is about half of that of wind power and about one-third of that of photovoltaics. Hydropower is the most mature and widely used clean energy in China.
3.3. Threat of alternatives 3.3.1. Centralized energy The centralized energy, which is manly composed of coal, hydropower, nuclear power, is still the mainstay of power generation. Fig. 9 and Fig. 10 are respectively the structure chart of China's power generation installed capacity and China's generating capacity in 2017.
3.3.1.3. Nuclear power. Fig. 12 shows the installed capacity and proportion of nuclear power for nearly 10 years. The installed capacity of nuclear power in 2017 was 35.82 GW, and the annual 8
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Fig. 10. The structure chart of China's generating capacity in 2017. Source: Organized public information.
power generation was 248.07 TWh, accounting for 5% of the total power generation. The relevant departments plan to install 58 GW by 2020, 120 GW and 800 TWh of power generation by 2030, which is equivalent to 100 million tons standard coals; uranium resources are scarce in China, 339 tons of uranium are required to build a 1 million kilowatt unit, as well as 15 tons of uranium 235 and uranium 238 are consumed each year, and the dependence on uranium imports has exceeded 90%. At present, nuclear power cannot be the main energy in China, and it can only be a supplementary method.
3.4. Bargaining power of suppliers 3.4.1. Natural gas At present, scarce natural gas resources, high prices (AsiguliYasin, 2016) as well as pricing power in the hands of the government make suppliers have an absolute advantage at the time of bargaining. However, China's basic research on gas generator sets is insufficient, and manufacturing lag behind market demand, which results in more than 90% of the units currently being imported from abroad. Moreover, the operating and maintenance costs of core equipment such as gas turbines remain high, leading suppliers to absolute advantage in bargaining power.
3.3.1.4. Centralized photovoltaic energy and wind energy. Centralized photovoltaic and centralized wind power generation are characterized by intermittent and volatility, so energy resources themselves will have a strong impact on the main network when they are connected to the grid in a large capacity and centralized way (Haijun et al., 2017). The phenomenon of solar and wind curtailment are still serious owing to the relatively concentrated layout of centralized energy. For example, China's wind curtailment in 2017 was 41.9 TWh, and the rate of wind curtailment was 12%; solar curtailment was 7.3 TWh, and the rate of solar curtailment was 6%. Calculated according to the minimum standard for benchmark prices of renewable energy, this means that the asset owners of renewable energy generation lost at least 4.5083 billion US dollars.
3.4.2. Photovoltaics The technical barriers for the production of crystalline silicon materials are very high, which are monopolized by ten major producers around the world. And in 2017, the top ten component manufacturers shipped up to 29.2 GW, accounting for about 57% of China's market. The small number of suppliers and the serious shortage of silicon material supply have kept the price of crystalline silicon high. However, with the expansion of investment in the world's major crystalline silicon producers, the supply has increased and the price of polysilicon materials has plummeted. The average price in February 2018 was 1.9032US dollars per ton, 15% lower than last month. The above situation reflects that the cost of PV companies has been reduced, so the bargaining
Fig. 11. The installed capacity and proportion of hydropower. Source: Organized public information. 9
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Fig. 12. The installed capacity and proportion of nuclear power. Source: Organized public information.
which can basically meet the requirements of blockchain applications. In the long run, the energy router can undertake the operational tasks of the distributed energy resources system. It is used to control the real-time energy conversion and information flow of the system nodes. By carrying distributed computing and data storage modules and pre-setting corresponding programs or algorithms, Energy routers are well compatible with blockchain network node functions and undertake the task of decentralized data storage, computing and interactive verification (Ming et al., 2017), which provides technical feasibility for blockchain technology +distributed energy resources systems.
power of suppliers is gradually weakened. In summary, suppliers have strong bargaining power, but their bargaining power has a tendency to decrease. 3.5. Bargaining power of buyers At present, centralized power supply is still the main energy supply way in China, and compared with it, the distributed energy resources have some shortcomings: the transaction volume is very small, the transaction method is single, each node can only sell electricity to the State Grid Corporation or China Southern Power Grid Company Limited, cannot directly trade; the relevant institutional mechanisms are not perfect, users do not have obvious demand for distributed energy resources. To sum up, buyers have strong bargaining power.
This section uses the SWOT model (Table 9) to analyze the combination of blockchain technology and distributed energy resources systems in the energy mix mode.
4. Analysis and discussion
4.2. Strengths
4.1. SWOT analysis
4.2.1. Optimization of measurement and certification Measurement and certification is an important basis for promoting distributed energy resources to be open and fair. Aside from existing energy transactions, a wide variety of market transactions are involved in distributed energy resources systems including ancillary services, emissions trading and even financial transactions, therefore credible measurement and authoritative certification are required. The distributed ledger technology and the consensus mechanism of the blockchain ensure that the data cannot be falsified privately, and guarantee the authority of measurement and certification, thus they can play an important role in the measurement and certification of distributed energy resources (Yixi, 2016; Yong and Feiyue, 2016). For example, blockchain technology can provide a fair and open metering platform for green certificates or quota system in carbon trading, provide a recording platform for data of smart meters or power system PMUs and reduce the proportion of bad data and ensure data credibility through a consensus mechanism, as well as be used for measurement and certification of cross-energy systems in distributed energy resources systems.
Through competitiveness analysis, we can find that the competitiveness of centralized energy in China is the strongest, and compared with it, distributed energy resources are not competitive enough, but their potential is huge (Xi, 2017). And distributed energy resources can solve disadvantages of centralized energy, such as large transmission loss and huge operating costs of central organizations. Hence, distributed energy resources require new technologies to spur its potential, and the blockchain technology has created opportunities for the development of it (Figs. 13 and 14 & Table 8). The feasibility of blockchain technology applied to distributed energy resources systems is as follows: 1 In 2014, China launched a new round of power system reform. The power system reform aims to break the monopoly of State Grid Corporation of China on buying electricity and selling electricity, and promote direct transactions by market players. Among them, the monopoly of the power-selling side was broken is the focus. In the future, the power-selling company will include three major categories: power sales companies of State Grid Corporation of China, power sales companies with distribution network operation rights, and independent power sales companies. All parties can participate in market transactions, and the main role of State Grid Corporation of China is to transmit electricity, which provides policy feasibility for the development of blockchain technology + distributed energy resources systems. 2 In the short term, multi-agent technology and distributed database technology have already matured applications in power systems,
4.2.2. Construction of market transactions Transactions in future distributed energy resources systems are diversified, and the application of blockchain in trading has unique advantages. First, the clearing of all transactions in the blockchain is shared by all nodes in the system and without the centralized trading organization, which greatly reduces transaction costs (Jian et al., 2017). Secondly, the information in the blockchain is transparent and authentic, which can realize the symmetry of information and the 10
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Fig. 13. Traditional centralized energy mode. Source: authors.
effectiveness of the market (Shuang et al., 2018); Thirdly, each node in the blockchain backs up all the data in the system, making the transaction records cannot be tampered with and ensuring the security and reliability of the transaction system (Shanshan, 2017); In addition, the blockchain can give each transaction a unique ID and record the transaction time. The data is recorded in the blockchain and cannot be tampered privately, which guarantees that the source of all electricity can be traced back and used in carbon trading and green certificate trading, etc. Finally, when trading conditions are met in the blockchain, smart contracts will be signed and then executed automatically, which ensures the execution and reliability of the contract and is conducive to the fairness and reliability of the trading market. For example, in pace with the reform of the electricity market, bilateral transactions between power retailers and power producers based on blockchain will be more
efficient and transparent; the distributed energy resources enable traditional users to realize the transition from consumers to prosumers; energy micro-transactions, which is based on C2C, can also be implemented on blockchain trading platforms. 4.2.3. Development of energy finance Energy finance is an important extension of the construction of distributed energy resources systems. Attracting the injection of capital from all parties will further accelerate the construction of distributed energy resources systems, and innovative business modes such as crowd-funding have become a new channel for financing distributed energy resources, achieving efficient and rapid construction of distributed energy resources. The blockchain technology for energy crowd funding can provide endorsement for startup companies and without
Centralized Energy
Smart electric meter
Smart electric meter Industrial user
Distributed energy resources
Power grid
Distributed energy storage
Smart electric meter
Smart electric meter
Distributed energy resources
Distributed energy resources Information flow Power structure
Civil user
Commercial user
Fig. 14. Distributed energy resources + blockchain mode. Source: authors. 11
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Table 8 Comparison of traditional mode and blockchain mode. Source: authors. Power source
Energy use situation
Data
Transaction form
Transaction cost
Traditional mode
Power grid (not traceable)
High loss
B2B2C,C2B2C
High
Blockchain mode
Internal energy storage is the main, supplemented by the power grid (traceable)
Close to the user, low loss
Central organization collection, data opaque Authentic, real-time, open and transparent
P2P
Low
the need for an intermediary as a third party, which greatly reduces the cost of financing and enables investors to receive dividends on time. For instance, crowd-funding of distributed photovoltaic is to achieve free trade of assets through asset financing. Moreover, photovoltaic power generation revenue can also be directly fed back to investors through blockchain technology. The securitization and financialization of other energy assets such as transmission and distribution lines can also be used for efficient financing and trading on the blockchain platform.
4.3.3. The lack of responsible parties in smart contracts There are a series of ethical issues, such as contract authorization, responsible person determination of the defaulting party since the contract party of the smart contract is often a virtual account rather than a natural person (Kai and Xiaomin, 2016). The application of future blockchain in distributed energy resources systems need to introduce digital identity authentication services to provide different types of numerical identity authentication services. In addition, policy protection and supervision are required to ensure the legitimacy and rationality of the main body in the blockchain.
4.3. Weaknesses
4.4. Opportunities
4.3.1. Insufficient computing power and response speed The computing power and response speed of the blockchain still exist problems (Xue et al., 2017). For example, as the most mature blockchain application, bitcoin can only process 7 transactions per second on average. The transaction confirmation has a delay of at least 10 min. Furthermore, the increase in the number of blocks also puts higher demands on database capacity and bandwidth. More applications in distributed energy resources, such as collaborative optimization in an energy mix system, have larger data volumes and higher requirements for real-time performance. In the future, blockchain technology with shorter update intervals needs to be established, including database technology with higher throughput, faster data communication technologies, more efficient consensus mechanism before the blockchain technology is applied in the energy system with large data processing and high real-time requirements.
4.4.1. Popular blockchain technology At present, a large number of enterprises in the fields of Internet and IT in China have begun to enter the blockchain industry. For example, Wanxiang Group Holding PLC established the Wanxiang Blockchain Lab in September 2015 to research blockchain industry and establish the first blockchain cloud platform in China –Wancloud. In addition, a venture capital fund focusing on the blockchain field has been established by Wanxiang. More than 30 blockchain startups have been invested globally, with a cumulative investment of over 30 million US dollars. In September 2016, Wanxiang Group announced that 29.3199 billion US dollars in the next seven years will be invested to build a “Wanxiang Innovation Energy Gathering City” with new energy vehicles as its core industry in Hangzhou. So far, the project, which has become the world's largest blockchain application project, will apply blockchain technology in all aspects (Meihua, 2016). What's more, Wanda Internet Technology Group actively participates in open-source alliance of international blockchain, focusing on promoting the development of domestic open-source blockchain technology, and developing a safe and autonomous platform for the blockchain technology.
4.3.2. Fault tolerance challenge Blockchain technology is an asynchronous consensus network, which does not theoretically have a consistent algorithm to ensure that the system can reach consensus and achieve Byzantine fault tolerance (Xuan and Yamin, 2017). At present, proof-of-work mechanisms (mining) in Bitcoin use incentives to solve Byzantine fault tolerance and thus guarantee the security of the system, but the corresponding cost is the large amount of computing resources and the delay caused by workload verification. In the future, the application of blockchain will inevitably adopt an innovative consensus mechanism that does not require mining, and reduce the system's consumption of computing resources on the basis of maintaining system security and robustness.
4.4.2. Virtual power plant In the future, many distributed power sources, such as distributed wind power, distributed photovoltaic, etc., will be integrated into the operation of large power grids (Rafiei, 2014). However, there is a small capacity in the distributed power supply, and renewable energy is intermittent and random. An important way to achieve the coordination of different virtual power generation resources is to carry out
Table 9 SWOT analysis summary. Source: authors. SWOT analysis
Summary
Strengths
1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3.
Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
Blockchain technology can optimize measurement and certification of distributed energy resources. Blockchain technology can build market transactions for distributed energy resources. Energy finance is conducive to the financing of distributed energy resources. Computing power and response speed of blockchain technology is weak. The fault-tolerant challenge and the proof mechanism of the asynchronous consensus network is not mature. The responsible party of the smart contract is not clear. Blockchain technology is popular. Virtual power plant. Monopoly of the energy industry. The inherent complexity and physical laws of the energy system. The legal and regulatory system for blockchain needs to be improved.
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Fig. 15. The application of blockchain in virtual power sources trading. Source: authors.
centralized management and unified scheduling through the widespread aggregation of distributed energy resources, demand response, and distributed energy storage in virtual power plants, thereby synergy between different virtual power generation resources can be achieved (Zhinong et al., 2013). A low-cost, open and transparent system platform for the transaction of virtual power generation resources can be can provided by the blockchain. As displayed in the Fig. 15, a virtual power plant information platform and a virtual power generation resource market trading platform are established based on the blockchain system, and the virtual power plant and the virtual power generation resource can be bidirectionally selected on the information platform (Wei et al., 2017). Whenever virtual power generation resources are determined to join a virtual power plant, the blockchain system will automatically generate smart contracts for the agreement between the two parties. At the same time, the contribution rate (the size of the workload) generated by each virtual power source for the entire energy system is open and transparent, and it can carry out reasonable measurement and certification, stimulate users and distributed energy resources to participate in the operation of virtual power generation resources. In the blockchain market trading platform, transactions between virtual power plants and ordinary users can be achieved through smart contracts in the form of long-term power purchase agreements, as well as real-time trading on the trading platform. Among them, the grid companies are only responsible for power transmission and do not participate in transactions.
important point that needs to be fully taken into account. In addition, the concentration of the energy industry is still high, and the possibility of monopoly is also great. Therefore, more research needs to be invested in subject access, data confidentiality, and data anti-attack abilities.
4.5. Threats
5. Conclusion and policy recommendation
4.5.1. Monopoly of the energy industry The monopoly of energy systems poses a threat to blockchain information security (Hua, 2016). In the Bitcoin system, the nodes participating in the whole network computing are dispersed, hence the cost of tampering with the network is much larger than the revenue. Therefore, the possibility of launching a “51% attack” on the Bitcoin network is close to zero (Courtois, 2016). However, in the energy industry, more than 51% of the computing resources are likely to be mastered by the same interest group, and the security of the blockchain will be greatly threatened. The energy system is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, and information security is an
5.1. Research conclusions
4.5.2. The inherent complexity and physical laws of the energy system When applied to money, payment, and banking, the physical system of the blockchain is relatively simple, which often involves numerical balance (Zhijiu and Yi, 2017). And the essence is the exchange of information. The energy system is a complex physical system, which is faced with measuring bad data, modeling the relationship between different types of complex physical quantities, and real-time operation of the system. The grid-connection of large number of distributed energy resources will affect the power system and the power quality (Hongjian, 2015). 4.5.3. Imperfect legal and regulatory system The complete concealment of personal information by blockchain technology may lead to illegal activities that can evade regulatory departments (Yongzhen, 2017). Energy is an important field related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, and its transaction and operation still require strict supervision. However, there is still a lack of research on how to incorporate the blockchain technology into regulatory systems.
This paper first analyzes the current competitiveness of China's distributed energy resources through the Michael Porter five forces model, and then analyzes the joint development mode of “blockchain technology + distributed energy resources” through SWOT model, and draws the following conclusions: 1 At present, the reform of the traditional centralized and extensive economy is underway in China. The highly efficient distributed energy resources, which are mainly based on clean energy, have 13
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huge potential. Various types of supportive and guiding policies were promulgated by the Chinese government. For example, “the 13th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development” (Jianchao National Development and Reform Commission), “Notice on Conducting Pilots of Distributed Power Generation Market Trading” (Jianchao Chinese government official website), “Guidance for Energy Work in 2018″ (Jianchao National Energy Administration) etc., proposed to attach great importance to the development of distributed energy resources; accelerate the construction of distributed energy resources projects; optimize the development pattern of solar energy; give priority to the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation. However, the competitiveness of distributed energy resources is still weak, which is reflected in the fact that the internal technologies of distributed energy resources are still immature, the bargaining power of suppliers is extremely strong, and the demand of buyers is insufficient. Conversely, the centralized energy as a substitute still has an overwhelming advantage. To enhance the competitiveness of distributed energy resources, not only policy support but also the new technologies are all necessary. According to the analysis of this paper, the joint development mode of “blockchain technology + distributed energy resources” is feasible and necessary. 2 The blockchain technology in China is still in its infancy. Although investment has increased and attention has risen sharply in recent years, most of them are concentrated in the financial sector represented by Bitcoin, blockchain technology, which is the underlying concept of Bitcoin, is not the main focus. And due to the immature blockchain technology, especially in the energy field, it is still in the concept stage, and there are not many projects actually implemented. However, the four main features of blockchain technology: decentralization, transparency, the automation of contract execution, and traceability can solve the existing problems of distributed energy resources and realize the advantages that the previous energy system does not have. For instance, the decentralization of blockchain technology makes central institutions not exist in distributed energy resources systems, which reduces a large amount of cost; the transparency of blockchain technology makes data transparent, which is conducive to supervision; the automation of contract execution will be enforced automatically after the conditions are fulfilled, which guarantees the execution and reliability of the contract and is conducive to the fairness and reliability of the trading market; traceability makes the source of all electricity traceable, and promotes the development of carbon trading and green certificates. 3 There is still some problems in the joint development mode of “blockchain technology + distributed energy resources”. First, the blockchain is essentially a distributed database, requiring powerful storage devices for each node; Second, proof-of-work mechanisms are currently only successful in the field of bitcoin, but it is still a major problem that how to solve the problem of Byzantine fault tolerance in the energy field; Third, the contracting party of the smart contract is a virtual account instead of a natural person, and there are a series of legal issues; Fourth, the energy industry is monopolized by several major state-owned enterprises in China, and the transaction reform and market construction have not yet been completed; Finally, as a special commodity, electricity must follow certain physical laws, such as grid-connection problems.
blockchain and implement supervision based on the unified standard. 2 The government should establish research teams about “blockchain technology + distributed energy resources” mode to study the coupling of blockchain technology and energy industry, as well as related technologies such as big data and cloud computing. 3 The government should strengthen the promotion of “blockchain technology + distributed energy resources”, especially for enterprises and developers, so that they can better understand the advantages of new technologies in order to promote the development of this mode. Acknowledgement This paper is supported by Shanghai Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project (Granted no. 2017BJB008). References Ahla, A., Yarime, M., Tanaka, K., et al., 2019. Review of blockchain-based distributed energy: implications for institutional development. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 107, 200–211. Andoni, M., Robu, V., Flynn, D., et al., 2019. Blockchain technology in the energy sector: a systematic review of challenges and opportunities. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 100, 143–174. AsiguliYasin, 2016. Discussion on Reasonable Utilization of Oil and Natural Gas. Guangdong Chemical Industry. China Distributed Energy Network:
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Jianchao Hou is an associate professor in Shanghai University of Electric Power. He got a Ph.D. in Management from North China Electric Power University. His research interests are: energy economy, electricity market optimization. He has published more than 10 papers in academic journals such as Renewable Energy, International Journal of Energy Research, and China Power, etc., including 5 SCI search papers. Che Wang is a Master graduate student in Shanghai University of Electric Power. He got the Bachelor degree from Hebei University of Science and Technology in 2016. His research direction: energy technology, Energy Internet. Sai Luo is a Master graduate student in Shanghai University of Electric Power. She received the Bachelor degree from Henan University of Technology in 2017. Her research direction are: power engineering economics and management.
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