- Email: [email protected]
Hypergonics: Developing a model of conflict
128
Long Range Planning Vol. 14
June 1981
modelling personnel flows in terms of hiring and persistence rates for various job categories, we develop a consistent structure for projecting future employment patterns as a function of hiring goals. These hiring goals themselves are made to depend on the growth-rate of staff size, the relative ability of women and minority candidates in the potential pool ofjob applicants, and the organization's policies towards equity in hiring. The second model considers a small organizational unit with fixed staff size. By formulating the process of attrition and replacement with new hires as a Markov chain, we are able to make probability statements about the number of positions that will be occupied by women and/or minority persons at the same future time. The relationship of these probabilities to the distribution among job applicants is made explicit. Applications of thes'e models to faculty and staff planning at Stanford University are briefly discussed.
VERGIN, R. C. On 'A New Look at Production Switching Heuristics for the Aggregate Planning Problem' Management Science, 26 (11), 1185-1186 (November 1980). Several papers have been published which present simplified models for the aggregate planning problems which do not yield optimal schedules. This note suggests that cost comparisons have been made against inappropriate base costs which include a large fixed cost element. BOWERS, D. A., MITCHELL, C. R. and WEBB, K. Modelling Bicommunal Conflict Fvtures, 12 (6), 473-488 (December 1980). The first of three articles reviews literature on the development of widespread discontent in society, on its mobilization and organization and on the behaviour that finally results. The relevance of the ideas and theories to modelling bicommunal conflicts is assessed.
GREENE, M. T. and FIELITZ, B. D.
Long-term Dependence and Least Squares Regression in Investment Analysis Management Science, 26 (10), 1031-1038 (October 1980). It is widely assumed that common stock returns approximate a random walk, i.e. the returns are assumed to be serially independent. As a consequence, estimates of systematic risk and efficient portfolios are usually developed using any convenient differencing interval with the implication that they are applicable to any investor regardless of his horizon period. The relationships are derived between least squares estimators and the differencing interval in the presence of long-term dependence. These relationships are then used to sho\f low long-term dependence affects estimates of systematic risk and efficient portfolios selected with systematic risk estimates and efficient portfolios must be developed using a differencing interval exactly equal to the investor's horizon period. KING, R. H. and LOVE, R. R., JR.
Coordinating Decisions for Increased Profits Interfaces, 10 (6), 4-19 (December 1980). A major tyre manufacturer has obtained an increase in productivity through the application of Management Science. Like most manufacturers, the Kelly Springfield Tire Company (Cumberland, Maryland, U.S.A.) has long recognized the difficulty and importance of coordinating sales forecasting, inventory control, production planning, and distribution decisions. The evolution of an integrated 'Total System' approach is described, with emphasis on the ability of the latest Management Science system to adapt the constantly changing tyre business. The original Total System implemented in 1970, reduced production lead time to generate estimated annual savings of $500,000, benefits totalling over £5m during the past decade. MARSTON, R. E. and MULLER, M. R.
A Mixed-integer Programming Approach to Air Cargo Fleet Planning Management Science, 26 (11), 1096-1107 (November 1980). The mathematical programining aspects are described of a long range planning study done for the Flying Tiger Line, an all-cargo airline. Two strategic problems were addressedthe design of the service network and the selection and deployment of the aircraft fleet. The concept is shown of how a spider graph provides a natural building block for network design. A mixed integer-programming model is presented that enables the planner to evaluate any network constructed from spider graphs by determining the most profitable selection of aircraft and routeing of cargo.
BENNETT, P. G.
Hypergonics: Developing a Model of Conflict Futures, 12 (6) 489-507 (December 1980). An overview is given of one method of modelling and analysing situations involving conflict in the general sense of conflict of interests. The development of the approach is described giving particular attention to the step by step expansion of the concept involved. So far as is possible, no more than a passing acquaintance with the ideas of Game Theory is assumed. The relevant systems are described in both formal and non-formal terms.
INDIVIDUAL PLANNING TOPICS-PRACTICE GOLDSTEIN, S. G. M.
Involving Managers in System-improvement Planning Long Range Planning, 14 (1), (February 1981). There are two kinds of planning-resource conversion and system improvement. System improvement is concerned with changing the nature of the ongoing activities of the organization with a view to improving them. The components are organizational learning and proactive planning. Although it is not difficult organizations are not allowing the necessary time and energy to it. The reason for this neglect is the prevailing organizational philosophy which inhibits it. An example of a Japanese firm which uses this approach is given. HIGGINS, R. B.
Creating a Climate Conducive to Planning Long Range Planning, 14 (1), 49-54 (February 1981). The participants of the planning process in complex organizations have differing views on the scope and effectiveness oflong-range planning. In a survey, it was found that, in general, respondents were slightly more satisfied than dissatisfied with the results of their long range planning system. CEO's were only marginally more satisfied than chief planners and general managers. The key needs were (a) to ensure that the nature oflong range planning was understood, (b) to get top management away from short term problems, (c) to create a congenial climate, (d) to develop appropriate company goals and (e) to use plans as standards for measuring performance. SPOONER, P. and JOHNSON, M.
Managers in the Future: How Will They be Judged Management Review, pp. 8 etc (December 1980). In the 1980s, all industrialized nations will be looking for
Long Range Planning Vol. 14
June 1981
modelling personnel flows in terms of hiring and persistence rates for various job categories, we develop a consistent structure for projecting future employment patterns as a function of hiring goals. These hiring goals themselves are made to depend on the growth-rate of staff size, the relative ability of women and minority candidates in the potential pool ofjob applicants, and the organization's policies towards equity in hiring. The second model considers a small organizational unit with fixed staff size. By formulating the process of attrition and replacement with new hires as a Markov chain, we are able to make probability statements about the number of positions that will be occupied by women and/or minority persons at the same future time. The relationship of these probabilities to the distribution among job applicants is made explicit. Applications of thes'e models to faculty and staff planning at Stanford University are briefly discussed.
VERGIN, R. C. On 'A New Look at Production Switching Heuristics for the Aggregate Planning Problem' Management Science, 26 (11), 1185-1186 (November 1980). Several papers have been published which present simplified models for the aggregate planning problems which do not yield optimal schedules. This note suggests that cost comparisons have been made against inappropriate base costs which include a large fixed cost element. BOWERS, D. A., MITCHELL, C. R. and WEBB, K. Modelling Bicommunal Conflict Fvtures, 12 (6), 473-488 (December 1980). The first of three articles reviews literature on the development of widespread discontent in society, on its mobilization and organization and on the behaviour that finally results. The relevance of the ideas and theories to modelling bicommunal conflicts is assessed.
GREENE, M. T. and FIELITZ, B. D.
Long-term Dependence and Least Squares Regression in Investment Analysis Management Science, 26 (10), 1031-1038 (October 1980). It is widely assumed that common stock returns approximate a random walk, i.e. the returns are assumed to be serially independent. As a consequence, estimates of systematic risk and efficient portfolios are usually developed using any convenient differencing interval with the implication that they are applicable to any investor regardless of his horizon period. The relationships are derived between least squares estimators and the differencing interval in the presence of long-term dependence. These relationships are then used to sho\f low long-term dependence affects estimates of systematic risk and efficient portfolios selected with systematic risk estimates and efficient portfolios must be developed using a differencing interval exactly equal to the investor's horizon period. KING, R. H. and LOVE, R. R., JR.
Coordinating Decisions for Increased Profits Interfaces, 10 (6), 4-19 (December 1980). A major tyre manufacturer has obtained an increase in productivity through the application of Management Science. Like most manufacturers, the Kelly Springfield Tire Company (Cumberland, Maryland, U.S.A.) has long recognized the difficulty and importance of coordinating sales forecasting, inventory control, production planning, and distribution decisions. The evolution of an integrated 'Total System' approach is described, with emphasis on the ability of the latest Management Science system to adapt the constantly changing tyre business. The original Total System implemented in 1970, reduced production lead time to generate estimated annual savings of $500,000, benefits totalling over £5m during the past decade. MARSTON, R. E. and MULLER, M. R.
A Mixed-integer Programming Approach to Air Cargo Fleet Planning Management Science, 26 (11), 1096-1107 (November 1980). The mathematical programining aspects are described of a long range planning study done for the Flying Tiger Line, an all-cargo airline. Two strategic problems were addressedthe design of the service network and the selection and deployment of the aircraft fleet. The concept is shown of how a spider graph provides a natural building block for network design. A mixed integer-programming model is presented that enables the planner to evaluate any network constructed from spider graphs by determining the most profitable selection of aircraft and routeing of cargo.
BENNETT, P. G.
Hypergonics: Developing a Model of Conflict Futures, 12 (6) 489-507 (December 1980). An overview is given of one method of modelling and analysing situations involving conflict in the general sense of conflict of interests. The development of the approach is described giving particular attention to the step by step expansion of the concept involved. So far as is possible, no more than a passing acquaintance with the ideas of Game Theory is assumed. The relevant systems are described in both formal and non-formal terms.
INDIVIDUAL PLANNING TOPICS-PRACTICE GOLDSTEIN, S. G. M.
Involving Managers in System-improvement Planning Long Range Planning, 14 (1), (February 1981). There are two kinds of planning-resource conversion and system improvement. System improvement is concerned with changing the nature of the ongoing activities of the organization with a view to improving them. The components are organizational learning and proactive planning. Although it is not difficult organizations are not allowing the necessary time and energy to it. The reason for this neglect is the prevailing organizational philosophy which inhibits it. An example of a Japanese firm which uses this approach is given. HIGGINS, R. B.
Creating a Climate Conducive to Planning Long Range Planning, 14 (1), 49-54 (February 1981). The participants of the planning process in complex organizations have differing views on the scope and effectiveness oflong-range planning. In a survey, it was found that, in general, respondents were slightly more satisfied than dissatisfied with the results of their long range planning system. CEO's were only marginally more satisfied than chief planners and general managers. The key needs were (a) to ensure that the nature oflong range planning was understood, (b) to get top management away from short term problems, (c) to create a congenial climate, (d) to develop appropriate company goals and (e) to use plans as standards for measuring performance. SPOONER, P. and JOHNSON, M.
Managers in the Future: How Will They be Judged Management Review, pp. 8 etc (December 1980). In the 1980s, all industrialized nations will be looking for