Improving critical choices

What futurists

think

The next century The 21st century

is not likely

I do, however, fairly

reckoned

world

will

system

artificial Moon,

by then.

Within

be stabilized;

economic

pleasant

for anyone.

global

environment

direct

and nanotechnology

Mars and elsewhere very early

however

100 years or so, one way or another,

the damaged

invented;

intelligence,

Brautigan

to be very

see some hope for the 22nd century-or

repaired;

democracy tranforming

understood,

‘all watched

IMPROVING

entirely

a new,

achieved;

be more

more

genetic

of the

equitable

engineering,

life on Earth and enabling

in the solar system (and beyond?).

I plan to avoid the ‘21 st century’

time will

the population

And,

over by machines

and go directly

it will

of loving

to the future.

it on the

be, as Richard grace’.

Will you join me?

CRITICAL CHOICES

Yehezkel Dror

My

main

concern,

choices,

ie

difference-up endeavour identify

to resetting

instruments

However, and upgrading

from

An additional

towards

to explore

futures

my work

main stream

One main

trajectories

requires

to make democratic

has increasingly

in my recent

governmental make

a

critical

real

line of work

and design alternative

futures,

and to design

capacities despite

societal

to

long-term within

can be redirected

subject

to

this

futures and to away for

uncertainty

and

are salient.

choices

futures

improving

expected

desirable

studies

critical

‘good’

with

be

into the future.

capacities

futures

of political

at long-term resulting

trajectories

and

improving

Accordingly, redesign,

has been

reasonably

with the help of which Here,

‘bad’

years,

can

cognitive

futures

inconceivability. distinguish

many

that

deals with

undesirable

policies

for

choices

Report

upgrading novel

the desirable pressures

taken

capacities

to

visions,

on one hand;

also feasible

and to direct

of the imminent.

up broad

to the Club of Rome

in my work

of moral

realistic

issues of governance The Capacity

results from an inescapable

and its

to Govern.

though

unpleasant

Yehezkel Dror is Professor of Political Science and Wolfson Chair Professor of Public Administratton, Emeritus, at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Member of the Club of Rome. His main books include Public Policymaking Reexamined, Crazy States: A Counterconventional Strategic Issue, and Policymaking Under Adversity. He has written a Report to the Club of Rome The Capacity to Govern, being published in the major languages. He is working on a mentoring tractate for top-level politicians The Superior Ruler, and a book on major global issues Remaking the World: Memorials to a Global Potentate. He may be contacted at the Department of Political Science, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel 91905 (Tel: +972 2 781679; fax: +972 2 780278; e-mail: [email protected]).

5 59

What futurists think

conclusion NGOs,

of all my studies

civil

societies,

and experiences:

despite democratization,

etc (and perhaps, paradoxically,

in part because of them) a very

small number of persons dominate

future-shaping

within very many constraints.

if they are highly skilled,

the contextual limitations are at all susceptible Therefore, indirectly

Albeit,

and achieve significant

public decisions.

True,

they operate

they can overcome much of

impact on future realities,

as far as those

to deliberate shaping through human collective choice.

my work increasingly

by proposing

focuses on ‘rules’,

changes in electoral

staffs, or directly,

by providing

writing

books for them.

mentoring

globalization,

rulers

trying to improve them, either

processes and novel designs for advisory

and their advisors

with

learning workshops

and

Broad readings My work is influenced by three main factors, in addition to high intra-personal tensions

and hard efforts

involvement countries

to think

in solitude:

much

and on the global level.

colleagues long-term

the importance

who are concerned history

the domains, Rather

of multiple

with

cultures

beyond mainstream than

continue

of broad readings,

the future.

Philosophy

and societies,

and for all

cognitive sciences-these

with

generalizations,

let

three books I read last month (in July 1995):

Baudrillard

(Cambridge,

Polity

for myself

of action and judgment, illustrate

policy sciences, which I try to study.

mentioning

Press,

1994,

me

illustrate

The Illusion

translated

these

inputs

by

of the End by Jean

from French) presents opinions

about the streams of time; The Making of Strategy: Rulers,

important for serious thinking

States, and War, edited by Williamson (Cambridge, Cambridge University 7477-

intense

with the rise of Israel; and advising on policies and policy making in diverse

I cannot overemphasize

choices

intellectual

and broad readings;

Murray,

Press,

and The Dutch

made by politicians;

7806 by Jonathan Israel (Oxford,

MacGregor

Knox and Alvin

Bernstein

1994) poses starkly the problematic of critical Republic:

Its Rise,

Greatness,

and Fall

Clarendon Press, 1995) provides striking

insights

into the factors of rise and decline of nations. The more I read the more frustrated which

I cannot hope to reach. All

‘prophets’ who claim to pronounce about the past and superficial intense

independent

involvement

on the future while

respect for self-anointed

demonstrating

total ignorance

views about the immediate.

More specific to my life history work:

I become about the many important writings

the more so, I have little

is the single most important factor shaping me and my

in the dynamics

policy-intellectual.

The

of Israel,

successes

of

both in governments Israel

in

realizing

and as an

a dream

and

transforming the history of the Jewish people through deliberate collective action is basic to my belief in the ability of human action signficantly to influence futures. The ideological features of Israel

provide

me with essential

between Israel and its neighbours

sensitized

insights

into ‘true believers’.

The conflict

me to the role of forces and its limits,

as the difficulties of intercultural confrontations. The difficulties push me to develop new modes of thinking on the unknowable,

as well

of Israeli predicaments such as the perception

and handling of critical choices as ‘fuzzy gambles with history’. And, perhaps most important, my identification with Zionism and Israel on one hand and with global humanity on the other, forces me to confront the abyss between raison d’&at and raison d’humanitg.

560

What futurists think

Indeed, reality

I tend to the opinion

on the basis of my experiences,

involvement

in the problems

and become

Nations,

my perspectives and Israeli

influence

organizations.

and the United

futurists

that,

may easily

without

close

lose their sense of

‘irresponsible’.

The third essential and for global

of one’s own country,

on difficult

and helped

prejudices.

on my work

Trying

is policy

to advise policy

advisory

countries

and policy-making

me to exit, at least somewhat,

It also provides

work

me with

in diverse

such as China,

diverse

countries

India and Brazil,

issues hopefully

broadened

myself and my Western,

real-life

‘laboratories’

Jewish

essential

for

my work.

Reducing the probability of bad futures I try to derive

and design

prescriptions

increasing

the probability

cope with

the unforeseeable.

alternatives,

ranges,

Trying

contingencies,

and ‘sciences

need ‘laboratories’ ‘method’

for me. Luckily,

indirectly,

in quite

This work writings

may

which

between

abstract

opportunities

with governments,

characterizes

how

and

in addition

of establishments,

is confidential, autonomy

this ‘method’,

the world,

including

I do what

as a main and

to Israel. some

of my

my thinking.

But it

their highest

function

I

who

directly

limits

and may constrain also

generic

on the other,

serves therefore

to apply

around

thinking,

realities

my ideas. Interacting

and in governments,

professional

seen, and to

in terms of potentials,

and inconceivabilities.

bridges

bias me in favour

with

on the future

on one hand and stubborn

of countries

of bad futures,

and dynamically

try out some of my proposals,

information

to work

to preserve

intellectual’,

a number

much

is this opportunity trying

builds

I have many

modality

because

thinking

out and pilot-test

react to my ideas and, sometimes,

the probability

pluralistically

uncertainties who

of the artificial’

to work

at reducing

futures,

All this, within

to be a ‘professional’,

knowledge

directed

of desirable

levels,

while

as a ‘free-floating

policy

I try to do.

How the future is shaped The future the

past

is between and

unknowable

dyanmics

demography,

operating Very

by

and

factors.

of history, values

past-provided

high

rates of change

expressed

in changing

mutations

in

inconceivable.

chance

Subject

societal

moving

into

irreversible

modalities

the future large-scale

the

with

nature

on one hand and

shifting possible

drivers labour

markets,

with

innovation

into account,

neither

care being

emerging

on the physical

as nonsensical:

continuation

to be taken

as and

such as the

desirable.

essential

as

in ideologies,

must be recognized

impacts

nor necessary,

process,

of the future,

jumps

future

are taken

development’

but with

of

of the future are at

globalization,

when

is a hyperdynamic catastrophes,

metamodel

by

perhaps

drivers

the longer-range

is not possible,

and

on the other.

economies,

I reject the term ‘sustainable

overriding

these fundamental

obvious

underdetermined

unknown

human

as interacting

biological settings of humanity and their feedbacks heating up of the earth and mutation of viruses. Therefore,

main,

this

compositions,

Therefore,

This is all the more

present development

and choice,

the

to

structures

characterize

turbulent more.

in

and,

three basic interactive

population

technologies, and much

‘deep’

and knowledge,

within

bio-weapons,

contingency,

shaped

processes

fundamental work:

necessity,

largely

of

Instead, to prevent

and much

risk

561

What futurists think

being

I accept this image not only as a fact, but like it morally,

unavoidable.

and existentially: steered

human

life, as individuals

and experienced

Given presently

this view

responsibly,

and adopting

imaginable

‘visions’,

should

limited

pictures

be rejected

time-frame

recognition be upgraded,

a time frame

of the

a priori

future,

increasing

science

and technology; critical

and,

choice

regarded

a number

hardest

of prescription

all

or as

adopting

a more

can be derived

potentials

damage,

capacities,

from the

for the future should

such as from global

nuclear

war;

such as by large scale investments

of all, by improving

in the face of mutating

as ‘predictions’

by the past. However,

and inconceivability:

action

be

that is 100 years,

of two generations, whether

risks of irreversible

multipurpose

aesthetically

is a venture-adventure-to

fear.

as too bound

uncertainty

by reducing

through collective

but without

of 30 to 50 years,

of long-term

and as a specie,

capacities

situations,

in

to better engage

both cognitively

in

and morally.

Realistic visions I have

realistic

Similarly, visions

visions

I think for their

However, visions

countries

useless

scale should, weapons

be prevented

unless

backed

empires,

should

should

Concomitantly,

some

hard to develop

while

within

pluralism;

suffering

in all its forms action

over

new

will’

navigate hopefully

562

will

to follow

30 or so years.

out middle-range

should

pressing,

through soon.

controlled;

realistic

should

on global

not do the job

such as mass media ‘stupid’;

and

countries

human

rights

be developed;

I give priority

which

try

should

be

and human

to future-shaping

needs.

governance

a powerful

be restrained;

populations

be advanced; be helped;

though

on the

and other

damage.

issues should

be ameliorated, but temporary

should

realistic

efforts

nuclear

‘talk’ will

power,

they make major

should

short-term

Rather,

actors

global

before against

directions

global

false.

serious dangers:

fanatic

of private

inequities

knowledge

limited,

being

(I use this term on purpose:

forms

positive

not do the job,

humanity

work

be more

on reducing

be protected

To meet these imperatives, ‘good

should

visions

and controlled

reducing

fostered, long-term

be strictly

or repressed

be regulated

commons’

for Israel for the next

scale should realistic

concentrate

up by force);

should

the ‘global

long-term

primarily,

mass-lethal

in writing,

on the global

and

wars should

and

and future-planners

and regions.

ambitions

being

global

in mind,

that futurists

global

must be made much guidance

a new Age of Metamorphosis.

cluster

more decisive.

may be required

But this is a subject

If to

for a book,