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Influencing Factors on the Increase of Child-rearing Households
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
ScienceDirect Procedia Engineering 198 (2017) 490 – 495
Urban Transitions Conference, Shanghai, September 2016
Influencing Factors on the Increase of Child-Rearing Households Katia Andradea*, Hayato Nakanob, Nao Sugikic, Toru Tamurad c
a, b ,d Hokkaido University, Kita-13, Nishi-8, Kita-ku,Sapporo, 060-8628, Japan Toyohashi University of Technology, 1-1 Hibarigaoka,Tempaku-cho, Toyohashi, 441-8580, Japan
Abstract Dealing with population decline and aging society is one the main challenges in Japan. The Japanese government aims to increase the quality of life of child-rearing households so as to ultimately increase birth rate and participation of females in the working market. Compact city policies and the Location Optimization Plan, recently proposed by the Government, are among the urban management measures adopted to support achieving this goal. Within this context, the purpose of the present research work is to investigate influencing factors on the increase of childrearing households. Characteristics of child-rearing households in a local district of Sapporo city were explored, initially. Household micro data was estimated for the years of 1995 and 2010 by using Census data, Person Trip data as well as one available micro data simulation methodology. Analysis of the generated data showed that 25 of the total 90 Census zones presented an increase in the number of child-rearing households. Multiple Regression Analysis was then performed to explore the correlations between the increase in child-rearing households and factors related to building characteristics, land use types, and distance to urban facilities. Preliminary results suggest a negative correlation between the increase in child-rearing households and each of the building age, distance to elementary schools and commercial facilities. While it seems reasonable that newer buildings and shorter distances to schools (including nurseries) and supermarkets could help easing the daily activities of working parents, several other factors should be explored. The presented analysis can support government plans towards improving neighborhoods with a focus on child-rearing households, which in turn could help increase the birth rate and the number of two-worker households in Japan. 2017 The TheAuthors. Authors.Published Publishedby byElsevier ElsevierLtd. Ltd.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license © 2017 © (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the Urban Transitions Conference. Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the Urban Transitions Conference Keywords: Child-rearing; Urban facilities; City planning, Compact city; Household micro data
1. Introduction Japan’s challenges with regards to its population have been highlighted recently. Faced by an aging society, decreasing population and reduced birth rates, the Japanese government has intensified countermeasure efforts. Adapting urban spaces to attend the needs of all kinds of citizens is among these efforts [1]. In addition, increasing the quality of life for families rearing children is another goal of the Government [2]. By adapting urban environments so as to include the needs of child-rearing households, the government aims at mitigating mobility barriers faced by these families, while improving quality of life. Ultimately, these actions might influence birth rates and the participation of females in the working market. Compact city policies have been under consideration as it offers accumulation of urban functions at short distances to residents, while mitigating daily life mobility difficulties. Focus on compact city policies is not recent in Japan, but recently, bigger numbers of municipalities have included Compact City policies in their Master Plans. However, often cities establish
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +81-11-706-6211; fax: +81-11-706-6214. E-mail address: [email protected]
1877-7058 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the Urban Transitions Conference
doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2017.07.103
Katia Andrade et al. / Procedia Engineering 198 (2017) 490 – 495
Compact City goals within their plans without advancing to develop concrete measures. Accordingly, the Urban Special Measures Law was revised in August 2014. In order to promote the development of specific measures, a new urban planning system was introduced by enacting the Location Optimization Plan [3].With the slogan of Compact and Network; the plan aims to improve the areas surrounding main public transport stations, i.e. the Regional Communication Nodes. It is intended to increase concentration of urban functions within Urban Functions Induction Zones, while motivating a higher mix of household types within Residential Induction Zones. Urban Functions Induction Zones and Residential Induction Zones together compose the Regional Communication Nodes. This paper investigates correlations between the increase in the number of child-rearing households and the location of urban facilities, such as commercial and educational facilities, as well as public transport stations. With a further objective of investigating factors that affect household location for families with young children, the results shown here are preliminary results. Section 2 reviews existing literature on urban planning and residential environment with a focus on child-rearing households. Section 3 describes the data e methods used in the analyses. Section 4 summarizes the regression models, while discussing about model outputs. Section 5 concludes the paper. 2. Urban Planning and Residential Environment for Child-Rearing Households Recently, public agencies in Japan have been giving further attention to improving the urban environment with a focus on child-rearing households. In 2010, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transportation carried out a detailed survey so as to investigate aspects of residential environment with positive influence on daily activities of this family type [4]. Also, a specific committee was created in 2014 aiming to consolidate a strategy entitled City – People – Work [5]. Specifically, the focus of this committee is to improve work-life balance, while supporting young generations during life events (e.g. marriage, child birth and child rearing). Following the Child/Childrearing Support Law, municipalities around the country have been considering the needs of child-rearing households within their Housing Plans [6]. As well as, support service plans have been implemented in order to mitigate common daily life barriers for parents with young children. The City of Yokohama launched a comprehensive child-rearing plan, which highlights that every child and everyone (adult population) plays a key role in the society [7]. Projects in Sapporo city include increasing the housing stock with focus on child-rearing families, where municipal housing is also being built around the city to accommodate the needs of such families [8]. According to Akedo et al. [9], child-rearing households returning (from suburban areas) to live in urban areas, as well as, double income households are increasing in Japan, thus increasing the demand for nursing facilities and other urban facilities that can support working parents. In addition, the authors mentioned about changes in the lifestyle associated with the child's growth, where parents are more concerned with the quality of living environments. Within this scenario, urban areas around the country should be adapted so as to attend the needs of current diversified household patterns and travel behavior patterns. Ohmori [10] discussed the types of cities and transportation environments required to increase quality of life for child-rearing households in Japan. With a focus on the transportation environment, the study also looked at the attitudes towards travellers with children in Japan compared to that in other countries. In the global scale, the impact of built environment characteristics on issues such as quality of life and residential location choices has been under great attention. In a report, Unicef urged worldwide governments to place children at the heart of urban planning, as the majority of the world’s children will grow up in town and cities rather than in rural areas [11]. A study looked at children’s perceptions on living in both city and suburban neighborhoods, where children from urban areas highlighted liveliness and access to be positive factors on their residential location [12]. Guo and Bhat [13] mentioned the important role of neighborhoods on the well-being and behavior of families; and children in particular. In another study, Bhat and Guo [14] highlighted the need of controlling for decision-maker attributes when estimating neighborhood location choice models. The authors exemplified that neighborhoods with park facilities, for example, might attract families with small children. Zhang et al. [15] mentioned the role of the social environment on children’s education; also suggesting that the choice of residential area is influenced by the neighborhood environment.
3. Data and Methods 3.1. Study area A portion of the Kita ward in Sapporo city, Japan is set as the study area in this paper. Kita ward is the most populated within the ten wards in Sapporo, having a population of approximately 286 thousand people (15% of Sapporo population). The study includes 90 census zones within an area of 800m radios surrounding Kita 24jyo station (Fig. 1). Kita 24jyo station is defined as a Regional Exchange Zone according to the Location Optimization Plan, which has been recently enacted by the Japanese Government (further discussed in Section 1). Regional Exchange Zones play an important role in supporting daily life activities as they usually include major train/subway stations, while concentrating diverse urban functions (e.g. commercial establishments, schools and government offices). Kita 24jyo station area is cited as the third area in Sapporo to present high concentration of services and facilities after Sapporo station and Odori station areas located in downtown Sapporo [16]. It has also been mentioned as one among the most convenient areas to live in Sapporo by a recent public opinion survey [17].
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Residential Induction Zone࠙5883 haࠚ Urban Functions Induction Zone (central)࠙ 480 haࠚ Urban Functions Induction Zone (Regional Exchange Zone)࠙530 haࠚ Especial Living Environment Zone
Kita 24jyo Station
Fig. 1. Location Optimization Plan: Sapporo area
3.2. Household micro data estimation This research concentrates on investigating factors that may affect the location of child-rearing households, while looking at the behavior of household members. Census data provides information on total population by gender and age, as well as household numbers by the number of household members. However, detailed information on household composition is not available. Accordingly, household micro data was estimated in this study so as to acquire household composition information at the level needed for the analysis. Household micro data was estimated for the study area by using the micro data estimation system originally proposed for Toyama city in Japan [18, 19]. Fig. 2 illustrates the micro data estimation system. Household micro data was estimated for the 90 census zones within the study area at two points in time (1995 and 2010). Total population data by age and gender and households by household members (Censuses 1995 and 2010), as well as person trip data [20] were the basis for the estimation. Households with 0 to 9 years old children are the focus in this paper. Small children usually rely on parents to attend daily activities, as well as considerable time and efforts are necessary from parents with young children. Thus, it is assumed that having urban facilities nearby would attract this particular household type, or yet, would influence the increase in child-rearing households in certain zones. A total of 25 zones presented an increase in the number of households with 0-9 year olds. Increases were observed from a single household in few zones to bigger numbers in others, as summarized in Fig. 3.
Fig. 2. Household micro data estimation system
Katia Andrade et al. / Procedia Engineering 198 (2017) 490 – 495
5
1 9 2
2 2 9 1
1
1
2
29 105
Kita 24jyo Station 6 10 7 8 6 7 17 1 1 2 20 13
Fig. 3. Increase in child-rearing households per zone (1995 – 2010)
3.3. Multiple regression analysis Multiple regression analysis was performed in order to investigate the correlations between the increase in child-rearing households and several land use-related explanatory variables. Details of the model, as well as, model assumptions are described in following table. Table 1. Details of the regression model Objective Variable
Explanatory Variables Building age
Assumptions Average building age (zone)
Total floor area
Aggregated floor area (zone) divided by the number of buildings
Land use type
Set as 1 (if residential land use type) and 0 (otherwise), based on 12 land use types defined for Sapporo city [21]
Distance to urban facilities Subway station Commercial facilities Nursery Kindergarten Elementary school Pediatric clinic
Distance from the center of the zone to the closest facility (straight line distance in meters)
Increase in the number of childrearing households
4. Preliminary Results and Discussion The preliminary results of the regression analysis are described in this section. Initially, correlations among explanatory variables were investigated (Table 2). As indicated, high correlation was observed between variables building age and total floor area; and also distance to nursery and distance to subway station. From this, total floor area and distance to subway station variables were excluded from the regression analysis. Regression analysis was then performed in two stages. In the first stage, Model 1 including all variables (but excluding total floor area and distance to subway station) was estimated (Table 3). In this initial analysis building age was the most statistically significant variable. However, other variables have also shown coherent signs and a certain level of significance, particularly distance to elementary school and distance to supermarket. Thus, a second model (Model 2) was set by including only these three explanatory variables, from which results are also summarized in Table 3. The variables included in the Model 2 presented coherent signs and are statistically significant at the 5% significance level.
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Table 2. Correlation Analysis ᬅBuilding age ᬆFloor area ᬇLand use ᬈKindergarten ᬉElementary ᬊNursery ᬋSupermarket ᬌSubway ᬍPediatrics
ᬅ 1 -0.76 0.02 0.10 -0.18 -0.15 0.20 -0.35 0.13
ᬆ 1 0.04 -0.32 -0.04 0.46 -0.47 0.43 -0.29
ᬇ ᬈ ᬉ ᬊ ᬋ ᬌ Building age and Total floor area 1 -0.32 1 Distanceto nursery and Distance to Subway -0.15 0.48 1 0.35 -0.29 -0.30 1 -0.17 0.15 -0.12 -0.34 1 0.31 -0.06 0.20 -0.17 1 0.60 -0.01 0.004 -0.39 -0.38 0.41 -0.40
ᬍ 1
Table 3. Outputs of the regression model Variable Constant term Building age Land use type Distance to kindergarten Distance to elementary school Distance to nursery Distance to nearest supermarket Distance to pediatrics Regression Statistics
Model 1 (all variables) Coefficient t-value 81.79 3.37 -2.21 -4.87 -1.34 -0.22 -0.28 -0.16 -3.32 -1.42 1.91 1.20 -3.81 -1.78 0.31 0.16 R: 0.854 2 R : 0.617 SE: 12.895 Observations: 25
Model 2 (3 variables) Coefficient t-value 100.45 7.47 -2.32 -5.65 ---------------------------------4.49 -3.03 -----------------4.76 -2.65 ----------------R: 0.840 R2: 0.660 SE: 12.202 Observations: 25
Building age, distance to elementary school and distance to supermarket seem to be fairly important factors when investigating the behavior of families with small children. Chattopadhyay [22] highlighted that dwelling age is one among several important attributes for different types of households when estimating household location. The author mentioned that larger families might prefer older houses with more rooms and bigger lots than small families. In the Japanese context though, it is important to clarify that dwellings are often small with limited number of rooms, particularly buildings around subway/train stations. This type of dwelling would normally attract single households or couple with no children households which would prefer locating at easy access to stations. However, with the recent Government’s efforts so as to improve such areas while turning it into more attractive areas for a bigger mix of households (further discussed in Section 2), new properties are being built by also considering the needs of child-rearing households. Newer buildings are usually better equipped with inside-house facilities, as well as larger room spaces which would attract child-rearing households. Also, communal recreation spaces are often observed in modern apartment buildings in Japan. Recently, real state agencies in Sapporo city offer tours for families so as to provide an opportunity to visit and experience new family oriented properties around the city. Distance is has been highlighted as an important explanatory factor for both household location choice (e.g. working place distance and school distance) and travel behavior (e.g. mode choice behavior). As largely accounted in the literature, escorting children, in particular those at daycare age and elementary school age, is time-consuming for parents. Lenntorp [23] mentioned the importance of choosing residential locations that would allow working mothers to escort their children both in the mornings and evenings. Ariga et al. [24] accounted for space-time constraints of both parents when proposing a simulation tool for escorting children to daycare centers. In another prism, a large body of recent research has highlighted the importance of active travel for increasing physical health and the overall well-being, not limited to children [25,26,27,28]. Accordingly, it might be reasonable to think that short to medium distances to schools, as well as other daily-life activities (for instance, accessing commercial establishments) would attract parents who are healthy conscious. By looking at urban areas in Kyotu-Osaka-Kobe in Japan, Sum et al. [29] concluded that physical energy use and health can be benefited by higher population densities and agglomeration of commercial facilities, as these motivate non-motorized travel. Even though it seems coherent to consider building age, distance to elementary school and distance to supermarket facilities as attraction factors for child-rearing households, the analysis shown in this paper is limited. Regional Communication Nodes (such as Kita 24jyo area, which is the target area in this study), include other urban facilities that might be of interest for childrearing households; for example, easy-to-access parks or playgrounds, children salons, public libraries and several types of small/medium size commercial establishments. Thus, several other factors should be investigated and are being considered by the authors. Furthermore, different areas (possibly larger areas) should be explored, while results should be compared in order to produce more robust outputs and discussions.
Katia Andrade et al. / Procedia Engineering 198 (2017) 490 – 495
5. Conclusion This paper discusses preliminary analysis results of factors influencing the increase in child-rearing households by focusing on the location of urban facilities, such as educational and commercial facilities; and public transport stations. The analysis suggested that building age, distance to elementary school and distance to supermarket are attractive factors which might influence the location of child-rearing households in certain areas. These results are in accordance with government policies towards improving urban areas so as to attract young families with children, while motivating a bigger mixture of households in central areas. By the recent Location Optimization Plan, the Japanese government defined specific zones, namely Urban Functions Induction Zones and Residential Induction Zones, aiming at attracting more urban facilities and diverse households, respectively. The aim of this Plan is to increase compactness and improve network in central areas. Ultimately, the Plan is also aimed at supporting and motivating double income households, which has been increasing recently in the country. The present study is an initial effort towards looking at attractive factors for the location of child-rearing households in the Japanese context.
References [1] Cabinet Office, Government of Japan, http://www8.cao.go.jp/shoushi/shoushika/data/sekai-shusshou.html (last accessed on June 12, 2016). [2] Japan Police Council, http://www.policycouncil.jp/ (last accessed on June 12, 2016). [3] Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism – MILT (City Planning Division). Location Optimization Plan (Draft). MLIT Website, 2015. [4] Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism – MILT (City Planning Division). Research on Environmental Improvement to Support parenting. MLIT Report, 2010. http://www.mlit.go.jp/sogoseisaku/barrierfree.html [5] Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism – MILT (City Planning Division). City – People – Work Committee. MLIT Website, 2014. http://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/sousei/pdf [6] N. Hachiro, T. Suzuki, Y. Koyama, M. Shimizu, M. Yamauchi, K. Suga, Household changes in contemporary Japan, The Japanese Journal of Population, Vol. 10, No. 1, 2012. [7] City of Yokohama, www.city.yokohama.lg.jp/kodomo/shien-new/data/.../soan-gaiyou-e.pdf (last accessed on July 8, 2016). [8] Sapporo City, Location Optimization Plan. http://www.city.sapporo.jp/keikaku/rich/ , 2015. (in Japanese) [9] T. Akedo, H. Nagano, M. Syoji, H. Ito, T. Fujii, Load of mobility based on barriers faced by households with children. Proceedings of the 53rd Infrastructure Planning and Management Conference, CD-ROM, 2016. (in Japanese) [10]N. Ohmori, Mitigating barriers against accessible cities and transportation, for child-rearing households, IATSS Research, 38 (2015) 116–124. [11]Theguardian Website, Make children the cornerstone of urban decision-making. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2012/feb/28/unicefchildren-central-urban-planning. (Last accessed on July 1, 2016) [12]W. Vliet, Neighborhood evaluations by city and suburban children. Journal of the American Planning Association, 47 (4), 1981, 458-466, DOI: 10.1080/01944368108976527 [13]J. Y. Guo, C. R. Bhat, Operationalizing the concept of neighborhood: Application to residential location choice analysis, Journal of Transport Geography, 15 (2007), 31–45. [14]C. R. Bhat, J. Y. Guo. A comprehensive analysis of the built environment characteristics on household residential choice and auto ownership level, Transportation Research Part B, 41 (2007) 506-526. [15]J. Zhang, Revisiting residential self-selection issues: A life-oriented approach, The Journal of Transport and Land Use, 7 (3) 29–45, 2014, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5198/jtlu.v7i3.460. [16]Y. Higo, H. Mori, M. Taniguchi, Critical review of compact city policies: From “aggregated zones” to “aggregating zones”, Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan, 49 (3), 2014. [17]Sapporo City, Sapporo city 2014 citizen questionnaire survey, http://www.city.sapporo.jp/somu/shiminnokoe/sakusei/h2601city_enq.html, 2014. (in Japanese) [18]N. Otani, N. Sugiki, K. Miyamoto, Policy-making challenges based on the urban micro simulation, Proceedings of Infrastructure Planning, Vol. 47, 2013 (CD-ROM, (in Japanese)). [19]T. Muranaka, N. Sugiki, N. Otani, K. Miyamoto, Setting and verification of household micro data for Toyama city, Proceedings of Infrastructure Planning, Vol. 49, 2014 (CD-ROM, (in Japanese)). [20]Sapporo City, 4th Person Trip Survey, http://www.city.sapporo.jp/sogokotsu/shisaku/pt/, (last accessed on May 4, 2016). [21]Sapporo City, Second Urban Planning Master Plan, http://www.city.sapporo.jp/keikaku/master/, 2014. (last accessed on Feb 10, 2016). [22]S. Chattopadhway, The effectiveness of McFaddens’s nested logit model in valuing amenity improvement, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 30 (1), 2000, 23–43. [23]B. Lenntorp, A time-geographic simulation model of individual activity programs, in: T. Carlstein, D. Thrift (Eds.), Timing Space and Spacing Time 2, Human Activity and Time Geography, Edward Arnold, London, 1978, pp. 162–180. [24]T. Ariga, Y. Fujigaki, S. Aono, N. Ohmori, Development of an activity-travel simulator incorporating space-time constraints for child rearing dual-earner households, Proceedings of Infrastructure Planning, Vol. 48, 2013 (CD-ROM, (in Japanese)). [25]E.O.D. Waygood, Y.O. Susilo, Walking to school in Scotland: Do perceptions of neighbourhood quality matter?, IATSS Research, 38 (2015) 125–129. [26]J. Westman, M. Johansson, L. E. Olsson, F. Martensson, m. Friman, Children’s affective experience of every-day travel, Journal of Transport Geography, 29 (2013) 95–102. [27]K. Andrade, S. Kagaya, Investigating behavior of active cyclists: Influences on bicycle commuting, Transportation Research Record, 2314 (2012) 89–96. [28]J. R. Sirard, M. E. Slater, Walking and bicycling to school: A review, American Journal of Lifestyle Medicine, 2 (5) 372–396. [29]Y. Sun, E. O. D. Waygood, K. Fukui, R. Kitamura, The built environment or household lifecycle stages: Which explains sustainable travel more? The case of Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe built area, Transportation Research Record, 2135 (2009) 123–129.
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ScienceDirect Procedia Engineering 198 (2017) 490 – 495
Urban Transitions Conference, Shanghai, September 2016
Influencing Factors on the Increase of Child-Rearing Households Katia Andradea*, Hayato Nakanob, Nao Sugikic, Toru Tamurad c
a, b ,d Hokkaido University, Kita-13, Nishi-8, Kita-ku,Sapporo, 060-8628, Japan Toyohashi University of Technology, 1-1 Hibarigaoka,Tempaku-cho, Toyohashi, 441-8580, Japan
Abstract Dealing with population decline and aging society is one the main challenges in Japan. The Japanese government aims to increase the quality of life of child-rearing households so as to ultimately increase birth rate and participation of females in the working market. Compact city policies and the Location Optimization Plan, recently proposed by the Government, are among the urban management measures adopted to support achieving this goal. Within this context, the purpose of the present research work is to investigate influencing factors on the increase of childrearing households. Characteristics of child-rearing households in a local district of Sapporo city were explored, initially. Household micro data was estimated for the years of 1995 and 2010 by using Census data, Person Trip data as well as one available micro data simulation methodology. Analysis of the generated data showed that 25 of the total 90 Census zones presented an increase in the number of child-rearing households. Multiple Regression Analysis was then performed to explore the correlations between the increase in child-rearing households and factors related to building characteristics, land use types, and distance to urban facilities. Preliminary results suggest a negative correlation between the increase in child-rearing households and each of the building age, distance to elementary schools and commercial facilities. While it seems reasonable that newer buildings and shorter distances to schools (including nurseries) and supermarkets could help easing the daily activities of working parents, several other factors should be explored. The presented analysis can support government plans towards improving neighborhoods with a focus on child-rearing households, which in turn could help increase the birth rate and the number of two-worker households in Japan. 2017 The TheAuthors. Authors.Published Publishedby byElsevier ElsevierLtd. Ltd.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license © 2017 © (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the Urban Transitions Conference. Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the Urban Transitions Conference Keywords: Child-rearing; Urban facilities; City planning, Compact city; Household micro data
1. Introduction Japan’s challenges with regards to its population have been highlighted recently. Faced by an aging society, decreasing population and reduced birth rates, the Japanese government has intensified countermeasure efforts. Adapting urban spaces to attend the needs of all kinds of citizens is among these efforts [1]. In addition, increasing the quality of life for families rearing children is another goal of the Government [2]. By adapting urban environments so as to include the needs of child-rearing households, the government aims at mitigating mobility barriers faced by these families, while improving quality of life. Ultimately, these actions might influence birth rates and the participation of females in the working market. Compact city policies have been under consideration as it offers accumulation of urban functions at short distances to residents, while mitigating daily life mobility difficulties. Focus on compact city policies is not recent in Japan, but recently, bigger numbers of municipalities have included Compact City policies in their Master Plans. However, often cities establish
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +81-11-706-6211; fax: +81-11-706-6214. E-mail address: [email protected]
1877-7058 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the Urban Transitions Conference
doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2017.07.103
Katia Andrade et al. / Procedia Engineering 198 (2017) 490 – 495
Compact City goals within their plans without advancing to develop concrete measures. Accordingly, the Urban Special Measures Law was revised in August 2014. In order to promote the development of specific measures, a new urban planning system was introduced by enacting the Location Optimization Plan [3].With the slogan of Compact and Network; the plan aims to improve the areas surrounding main public transport stations, i.e. the Regional Communication Nodes. It is intended to increase concentration of urban functions within Urban Functions Induction Zones, while motivating a higher mix of household types within Residential Induction Zones. Urban Functions Induction Zones and Residential Induction Zones together compose the Regional Communication Nodes. This paper investigates correlations between the increase in the number of child-rearing households and the location of urban facilities, such as commercial and educational facilities, as well as public transport stations. With a further objective of investigating factors that affect household location for families with young children, the results shown here are preliminary results. Section 2 reviews existing literature on urban planning and residential environment with a focus on child-rearing households. Section 3 describes the data e methods used in the analyses. Section 4 summarizes the regression models, while discussing about model outputs. Section 5 concludes the paper. 2. Urban Planning and Residential Environment for Child-Rearing Households Recently, public agencies in Japan have been giving further attention to improving the urban environment with a focus on child-rearing households. In 2010, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transportation carried out a detailed survey so as to investigate aspects of residential environment with positive influence on daily activities of this family type [4]. Also, a specific committee was created in 2014 aiming to consolidate a strategy entitled City – People – Work [5]. Specifically, the focus of this committee is to improve work-life balance, while supporting young generations during life events (e.g. marriage, child birth and child rearing). Following the Child/Childrearing Support Law, municipalities around the country have been considering the needs of child-rearing households within their Housing Plans [6]. As well as, support service plans have been implemented in order to mitigate common daily life barriers for parents with young children. The City of Yokohama launched a comprehensive child-rearing plan, which highlights that every child and everyone (adult population) plays a key role in the society [7]. Projects in Sapporo city include increasing the housing stock with focus on child-rearing families, where municipal housing is also being built around the city to accommodate the needs of such families [8]. According to Akedo et al. [9], child-rearing households returning (from suburban areas) to live in urban areas, as well as, double income households are increasing in Japan, thus increasing the demand for nursing facilities and other urban facilities that can support working parents. In addition, the authors mentioned about changes in the lifestyle associated with the child's growth, where parents are more concerned with the quality of living environments. Within this scenario, urban areas around the country should be adapted so as to attend the needs of current diversified household patterns and travel behavior patterns. Ohmori [10] discussed the types of cities and transportation environments required to increase quality of life for child-rearing households in Japan. With a focus on the transportation environment, the study also looked at the attitudes towards travellers with children in Japan compared to that in other countries. In the global scale, the impact of built environment characteristics on issues such as quality of life and residential location choices has been under great attention. In a report, Unicef urged worldwide governments to place children at the heart of urban planning, as the majority of the world’s children will grow up in town and cities rather than in rural areas [11]. A study looked at children’s perceptions on living in both city and suburban neighborhoods, where children from urban areas highlighted liveliness and access to be positive factors on their residential location [12]. Guo and Bhat [13] mentioned the important role of neighborhoods on the well-being and behavior of families; and children in particular. In another study, Bhat and Guo [14] highlighted the need of controlling for decision-maker attributes when estimating neighborhood location choice models. The authors exemplified that neighborhoods with park facilities, for example, might attract families with small children. Zhang et al. [15] mentioned the role of the social environment on children’s education; also suggesting that the choice of residential area is influenced by the neighborhood environment.
3. Data and Methods 3.1. Study area A portion of the Kita ward in Sapporo city, Japan is set as the study area in this paper. Kita ward is the most populated within the ten wards in Sapporo, having a population of approximately 286 thousand people (15% of Sapporo population). The study includes 90 census zones within an area of 800m radios surrounding Kita 24jyo station (Fig. 1). Kita 24jyo station is defined as a Regional Exchange Zone according to the Location Optimization Plan, which has been recently enacted by the Japanese Government (further discussed in Section 1). Regional Exchange Zones play an important role in supporting daily life activities as they usually include major train/subway stations, while concentrating diverse urban functions (e.g. commercial establishments, schools and government offices). Kita 24jyo station area is cited as the third area in Sapporo to present high concentration of services and facilities after Sapporo station and Odori station areas located in downtown Sapporo [16]. It has also been mentioned as one among the most convenient areas to live in Sapporo by a recent public opinion survey [17].
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Residential Induction Zone࠙5883 haࠚ Urban Functions Induction Zone (central)࠙ 480 haࠚ Urban Functions Induction Zone (Regional Exchange Zone)࠙530 haࠚ Especial Living Environment Zone
Kita 24jyo Station
Fig. 1. Location Optimization Plan: Sapporo area
3.2. Household micro data estimation This research concentrates on investigating factors that may affect the location of child-rearing households, while looking at the behavior of household members. Census data provides information on total population by gender and age, as well as household numbers by the number of household members. However, detailed information on household composition is not available. Accordingly, household micro data was estimated in this study so as to acquire household composition information at the level needed for the analysis. Household micro data was estimated for the study area by using the micro data estimation system originally proposed for Toyama city in Japan [18, 19]. Fig. 2 illustrates the micro data estimation system. Household micro data was estimated for the 90 census zones within the study area at two points in time (1995 and 2010). Total population data by age and gender and households by household members (Censuses 1995 and 2010), as well as person trip data [20] were the basis for the estimation. Households with 0 to 9 years old children are the focus in this paper. Small children usually rely on parents to attend daily activities, as well as considerable time and efforts are necessary from parents with young children. Thus, it is assumed that having urban facilities nearby would attract this particular household type, or yet, would influence the increase in child-rearing households in certain zones. A total of 25 zones presented an increase in the number of households with 0-9 year olds. Increases were observed from a single household in few zones to bigger numbers in others, as summarized in Fig. 3.
Fig. 2. Household micro data estimation system
Katia Andrade et al. / Procedia Engineering 198 (2017) 490 – 495
5
1 9 2
2 2 9 1
1
1
2
29 105
Kita 24jyo Station 6 10 7 8 6 7 17 1 1 2 20 13
Fig. 3. Increase in child-rearing households per zone (1995 – 2010)
3.3. Multiple regression analysis Multiple regression analysis was performed in order to investigate the correlations between the increase in child-rearing households and several land use-related explanatory variables. Details of the model, as well as, model assumptions are described in following table. Table 1. Details of the regression model Objective Variable
Explanatory Variables Building age
Assumptions Average building age (zone)
Total floor area
Aggregated floor area (zone) divided by the number of buildings
Land use type
Set as 1 (if residential land use type) and 0 (otherwise), based on 12 land use types defined for Sapporo city [21]
Distance to urban facilities Subway station Commercial facilities Nursery Kindergarten Elementary school Pediatric clinic
Distance from the center of the zone to the closest facility (straight line distance in meters)
Increase in the number of childrearing households
4. Preliminary Results and Discussion The preliminary results of the regression analysis are described in this section. Initially, correlations among explanatory variables were investigated (Table 2). As indicated, high correlation was observed between variables building age and total floor area; and also distance to nursery and distance to subway station. From this, total floor area and distance to subway station variables were excluded from the regression analysis. Regression analysis was then performed in two stages. In the first stage, Model 1 including all variables (but excluding total floor area and distance to subway station) was estimated (Table 3). In this initial analysis building age was the most statistically significant variable. However, other variables have also shown coherent signs and a certain level of significance, particularly distance to elementary school and distance to supermarket. Thus, a second model (Model 2) was set by including only these three explanatory variables, from which results are also summarized in Table 3. The variables included in the Model 2 presented coherent signs and are statistically significant at the 5% significance level.
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Table 2. Correlation Analysis ᬅBuilding age ᬆFloor area ᬇLand use ᬈKindergarten ᬉElementary ᬊNursery ᬋSupermarket ᬌSubway ᬍPediatrics
ᬅ 1 -0.76 0.02 0.10 -0.18 -0.15 0.20 -0.35 0.13
ᬆ 1 0.04 -0.32 -0.04 0.46 -0.47 0.43 -0.29
ᬇ ᬈ ᬉ ᬊ ᬋ ᬌ Building age and Total floor area 1 -0.32 1 Distanceto nursery and Distance to Subway -0.15 0.48 1 0.35 -0.29 -0.30 1 -0.17 0.15 -0.12 -0.34 1 0.31 -0.06 0.20 -0.17 1 0.60 -0.01 0.004 -0.39 -0.38 0.41 -0.40
ᬍ 1
Table 3. Outputs of the regression model Variable Constant term Building age Land use type Distance to kindergarten Distance to elementary school Distance to nursery Distance to nearest supermarket Distance to pediatrics Regression Statistics
Model 1 (all variables) Coefficient t-value 81.79 3.37 -2.21 -4.87 -1.34 -0.22 -0.28 -0.16 -3.32 -1.42 1.91 1.20 -3.81 -1.78 0.31 0.16 R: 0.854 2 R : 0.617 SE: 12.895 Observations: 25
Model 2 (3 variables) Coefficient t-value 100.45 7.47 -2.32 -5.65 ---------------------------------4.49 -3.03 -----------------4.76 -2.65 ----------------R: 0.840 R2: 0.660 SE: 12.202 Observations: 25
Building age, distance to elementary school and distance to supermarket seem to be fairly important factors when investigating the behavior of families with small children. Chattopadhyay [22] highlighted that dwelling age is one among several important attributes for different types of households when estimating household location. The author mentioned that larger families might prefer older houses with more rooms and bigger lots than small families. In the Japanese context though, it is important to clarify that dwellings are often small with limited number of rooms, particularly buildings around subway/train stations. This type of dwelling would normally attract single households or couple with no children households which would prefer locating at easy access to stations. However, with the recent Government’s efforts so as to improve such areas while turning it into more attractive areas for a bigger mix of households (further discussed in Section 2), new properties are being built by also considering the needs of child-rearing households. Newer buildings are usually better equipped with inside-house facilities, as well as larger room spaces which would attract child-rearing households. Also, communal recreation spaces are often observed in modern apartment buildings in Japan. Recently, real state agencies in Sapporo city offer tours for families so as to provide an opportunity to visit and experience new family oriented properties around the city. Distance is has been highlighted as an important explanatory factor for both household location choice (e.g. working place distance and school distance) and travel behavior (e.g. mode choice behavior). As largely accounted in the literature, escorting children, in particular those at daycare age and elementary school age, is time-consuming for parents. Lenntorp [23] mentioned the importance of choosing residential locations that would allow working mothers to escort their children both in the mornings and evenings. Ariga et al. [24] accounted for space-time constraints of both parents when proposing a simulation tool for escorting children to daycare centers. In another prism, a large body of recent research has highlighted the importance of active travel for increasing physical health and the overall well-being, not limited to children [25,26,27,28]. Accordingly, it might be reasonable to think that short to medium distances to schools, as well as other daily-life activities (for instance, accessing commercial establishments) would attract parents who are healthy conscious. By looking at urban areas in Kyotu-Osaka-Kobe in Japan, Sum et al. [29] concluded that physical energy use and health can be benefited by higher population densities and agglomeration of commercial facilities, as these motivate non-motorized travel. Even though it seems coherent to consider building age, distance to elementary school and distance to supermarket facilities as attraction factors for child-rearing households, the analysis shown in this paper is limited. Regional Communication Nodes (such as Kita 24jyo area, which is the target area in this study), include other urban facilities that might be of interest for childrearing households; for example, easy-to-access parks or playgrounds, children salons, public libraries and several types of small/medium size commercial establishments. Thus, several other factors should be investigated and are being considered by the authors. Furthermore, different areas (possibly larger areas) should be explored, while results should be compared in order to produce more robust outputs and discussions.
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5. Conclusion This paper discusses preliminary analysis results of factors influencing the increase in child-rearing households by focusing on the location of urban facilities, such as educational and commercial facilities; and public transport stations. The analysis suggested that building age, distance to elementary school and distance to supermarket are attractive factors which might influence the location of child-rearing households in certain areas. These results are in accordance with government policies towards improving urban areas so as to attract young families with children, while motivating a bigger mixture of households in central areas. By the recent Location Optimization Plan, the Japanese government defined specific zones, namely Urban Functions Induction Zones and Residential Induction Zones, aiming at attracting more urban facilities and diverse households, respectively. The aim of this Plan is to increase compactness and improve network in central areas. Ultimately, the Plan is also aimed at supporting and motivating double income households, which has been increasing recently in the country. The present study is an initial effort towards looking at attractive factors for the location of child-rearing households in the Japanese context.
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