Information technology prospects for the year 2000

Robotics & Computer-lnteorated Manufacturing, Vol. 7, No. 1/2, pp. 183-189, 1990

0736-5845/90 $3.00 + 0.00 Pergamon Press plc

Printed in Great Britain

•

Compendium I N F O R M A T I O N T E C H N O L O G Y P R O S P E C T S FOR THE YEAR 2000 HERBERT KIRCHER Boeblingen, F.R.G.

Information technology is the single most important factor in triggering innovation and increasing competitiveness in whole variety of other industries. The importance of Europe's competing results from an ever increasing share of the European market being supplied from Japan. Nearly all so-called "high-tech" products depend on semiconductors. Their increasing performance is of great strategic importance. The leading edge products in microelectronics are memory chips. Our technological capabilties will integrate memory and other functions with the processor on the same chip. IBM is devoting research and development efforts to finding a competitive European solution. Information technology prospects for the year 2000 impact applications, system structures, and changes in technology. European scientists and engineers have the capability to regain leadership in sectors important for the future.

tion. Communications, automobiles, consumer and industrial electronics use the rest. The leading edge products in microelectronics are memory chips--today mostly 1 megabit chips. Five hundred million 1 megabit chips will be produced this year. With the production of 4 megabit chips, the 1 megabit price will start to fall. Meanwhile, there already exist samples of 16 megabit chips, and development is ongoing for the 64 megabit chip. So the trend is clear: denser, faster and cheaper. Ninety per cent of the 1 megabit chips are produced in Japan. Most of the 4 megabit chips will be manufactured in Japan in 1989. These figures do not include the chip production of companies, like IBM, who produce for their own consumption. IBM development and manufacturing sites in Europe are actively working to balance that in favor of Europe. We want to ensure that our products maximize the usage of semiconductor technology designed in Europe and built in Europe--and we are doing this competitively. The memory megabit chips are at the leading edge of technology. Together with the powerful logic chips, they are the heart of a computer. A microprocessor is built from one or several very large logic chips. The evolution started with the 8 bit microprocessor. Most personal computers today use 16 bit microprocessors-while the 32 bit microprocessor has just appeared on the market. However, basic calculations--both integer and address arithmetic--do not require more than 32 bits. Therefore we will not see the widespread use of 64 bit mircoprocessors. Instead our increasing technological capabilities will be used to integrate memory and other functions with the processor on the same chip.

INNOVATION IN EUROPE The world market for electronics--including information technology, but also industrial and entertainment electronics--amounted to some 600 billion dollars in 1987. Here in Europe, the market is 170 billion dollars. Analysts estimate that the growth rate for the next five years will be in the range of 10 %. This means that the volume will double by 1995. The U.S. market is somewhat larger--at 240 billion dollars--and the Japanese market somewhat smaller--110 billion doll a r s - t h a n the European market. Information technology is the single most important factor in triggering innovation and increasing competitiveness in a whole variety of other industries. The supply of this huge worldwide market is about to get out of balance. Japan exports about a third of its electronics production; while electronics exports and imports approximately balance in the U.S., Europe is the largest recipient of Japanese exports. So European companies which develop and produce in Europe face a difficult time. Indeed, an ever increasing share of the European market is being supplied from Japan. So the point I want to stress is the importance of Europe's competing role. Strengthening competence in the development of the production of semiconductors is crucial, as this technology will play a vital part in advances in information technology. Nearly all so-called "high-tech" products depend on semiconductors. Their increasing performance is of great strategic importance for us all. Information technology uses only 19 % of microelectronic producTECHNOLOGICAL

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As a matter of fact, the performance gap between microprocessors and mainframes has been narrowing for quite some time. Due to this, many applications that could not be r u n - - o r only at great cost on mainframes--are now available on workstations or personal computers. But workstations will not reach the internal speed of the mainframes because of basic technology differences. Workstations today are mostly based on CMOS technology, whereas mainframes use the much faster but more power-hungry bipolar technology. Both workstations and mainframes will remain active in the marketplace for their particular applications, and they will achieve still greater performance in the future. Again at IBM, we are devoting research and development efforts to finding a competitive European solution in these areas rather than importing from the Far East. The CMOS technology at Boeblingen is already proving successful. And at Essonnes in France, we have the most advanced bipolar chip line in Europe. THE CERN RESEARCH PROJECT CERN, the European Laboratory for Particle Physics in Geneva, needs to process huge amounts of data coming from proton-antiproton experiments and from a new large electron-positron collider under construction there. Traditionally, we have worked together with our key customers to satisfy their unique computational needs. Thus, when CERN asked for help, we offered our co-operation in an outstanding parallel processing research program.

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The research project is focusing on parallel computing structures--allowing a new level of performance, at a reduced cost of computer power, for specific engineering and scientific applications. We should think in terms of three main architectures: tightly, closely, and loosely coupled parallel processing. Tightly coupled processing is the architecture of supercomputers--such as the IBM ES/3090-600S, with six parallel processors. However, it is the loosely coupled method that is the subject of the current research project with CERN. We delivered a first prototype of this Parallel Processing Server to CERN. The server has 32 parallel processing units, working with only IBM/370 microprocessors. Inherent in the basic design is the capability to harness an aggregate raw computer power of several billion instructions per second as soon as the early 1990s. Our concept features architectural consistency with existing IBM System/370 mainframes. This permits identical programs to execute unchanged on both the mainframe and on a microprocessor-based parallel computer. The concept is unique so far and represents a major step forward in the state of the art. In Boeblingen we are developing mircoprocessors with IBM's ES/370 architecture. Such a microprocessor was introduced last year in general purpose mainframe computers. Each mircoprocessor has its own floating point coprocessor, which improves scientific calculation performance. More powerful microprocessors are under design in the Boeblingen laboratory with an approximately six- to twelve-fold performance increase--allowing further improvements in parallel processing performance. Besides this research project we concentrate on four development areas at Boeblingen. First, banking self service products, such as auto-

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year 2000 • H. KIRCHER

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matic cash dispensers, statement printers, passbook readers and associated control software. Second, general purpose computer systems in IBM ES/370 architecture--such as the IBM ES/9370 system family. Third, leading edge VLSI microprocessors. Microprocessors are comparable to megabit chips but with logic circuits on them. Our recently developed microprocessor--which we have been shipping to customers for a year--has 800,000 transistors on one chip and is an industry leader. Fourth, the development of system software for intermediate and large computer systems. This makes the system functions available to application programs and the end user. Improvement of the end user interface of system software is one of our major development areas.

New applications and new system structures will be supported by major changes in the underlying technologies. In the semiconductor memory area, 256 megabit chips will be state-of-the-art in the industry-featuring 256 times the storage capacity of today's 1 megabit chip. The gigabit chip will be under development. These storage densities will generally be achieved by reducing the minimum feature size from today's 1 micron--one millionth of a meter--to something like 0.1 micron. For this, X-ray technology different from today's photolithography will be employed. X-ray technology will be the fundamental requirement to go to 64 megabit chips and beyond. The performance of microprocessors, expressed in MIPS (million instructions per second); the size of main memories in both small and large computers; and the data rate of communication channels, particularly optical--these will still be increasing each year at present rates. On June 2nd, A. S. Grove--CEO of Intel--predicted that "By the year 2000, we'll be seeing 50 million to 100 million transistors on a chip in microprocessors." Just as a reference, one million transistors on a chip is good by today's standards. Existing silicon technologies such as bipolar and CMOS will continue their present rate of progress. New technologies like BICMOS, low temperature CMOS, and gallium arsenide, will feature in products.

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY PROSPECTS F O R T H E YEAR 2000 The impact in information technology can be viewed from three different angles: • First, applications--which will become more and more common. • Second, new system structures supporting these applications. • And thirdly, the underlying changes in technology. Let's look first at new technologies in the year 2000. Without making any irrefutable predictions, here are some likely directions for our industry.

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The building of three-dimensional semiconductor structures--where transistors are integrated on top of one another--will have become a mature technique. Semiconductor technology will improve defect density--which will lead to larger chip sizes and increased productivity. Multiple 32 bit microprocessors will be available on a single chip. It is not likely that biochemical technologies will replace semiconductor technologies to a significant

extent by the year 2000. However, integrated sensor elements on VLSI chips will find extensive applications in manufacturing, process control, entertainment electronics, and many other applications. Voice recognition will become a generally available technology, maybe five to eight years from now. It might be used to replace dictating equipment, where the spoken word will immediately appear in text form on a workstation display.

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Optical storage is not expected to replace magnetic disks. Present optical disk technology has access disadvantages compared to magnetic disks that may be difficult or impossible to overcome. Both technologies may very well coexist. But write-once optical disks will be a strong competitor of magnetic tapes for achieved applications. Fiber optic technology will be used to interconnect elements in data processing systems, whenever the distance to be covered exceeds a few meters. Data rates in the 1-10 gigabit per second range will be common. Underlying these changes will be extensions in today's system structures. Semantic user interfaces will become more common. Semantic information processing will enable computers to react to instructions based on previous knowledge of the behavior of a particular user. In-house publishing and documentation will be based on the wide scale introduction of functions such as today's hypertext--with international standards

permitting common document exchange in electronic form. The development of new system and software functions will be helped by several developments: • The increasing use of interpreters instead of compilers; • The wide scale introduction of Computer Assisted Software Engineering (CASE); • And the increasing use of expert systems, replacing today's high level language programs. Database systems will benefit from using high volume data stored in permanent semiconductor memories rather than on rotating disk devices. And major improvements in the areas of system security and system integrity will occur--for example, by making encryption of data a standard feature in all large and small computers. In a few years we will see massive parallel systems, featuring well over 1000 microprocessors with dedicated main memories working in parallel. They will work as satellites and in tandem with mainframe machines--and architectural compatibility between

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Information technology prospects for the year 2000 • H. KIRCHER Applications 2000 Terabyte data bases under 8TX, PRESTEL (e.g. theater, education ) Office automation Education ModeLLing

Computer integrated manufacturing Robot manufacturing Computer vision / image input

Fig. 14. Applications 2000. the mainframe and the massively parallel satellites will be an important characteristic. These changes in technology and system structure will be the base for new applications. Public data banks--patterned after the British Prestel or the German Btx systems--will be commonplace. Using either magnetic or optical disk storage, storage capacities in the terabyte range will be installed in all major cities and contain any information of value to interested subscribers. In Germany today, about a quarter of all office workers have access to a terminal or a PC. This will be doubled by 1995. And by the end of the century, nearly all office workers--and a significant number of blue collar workers--will use a computer workstation. Electronic mail; the centralized storage of office data; additional large databases on the personal computer disk; instant retrieval of remote data; voice recognition; alphanumeric and image output on both the display and the local printer/plotter--all these will have become commonplace. The worldwide interconnection of local computers within a company, within an industry, and among various companies, will be a fact of life--transmitting not only letters and documents, but drawings and images as well. To a significant extent--but probably not as great as is sometimes assumed--the evolution of today's personal computer will permit workers to perform a part of the daily work at home. One significant new trend will be the large scale use of computer modelling and stimulation for wide areas in finance, marketing, engineering and science. In the year 2000 it will be common to model designs on a computer, rather than creating prototypes. This will reduce the development cycle time, decrease development cost, and increase the competiveness of the product thus created.

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The next generation of central processing units being developed in IBM's laboratories uses extensive simulation to cut development time and eliminate errors prior to the first hardware being built. New scientific discoveries will be based on simulating or modelling natural phenomena on a computer. This will include a large number of simulations that cannot be done today, because the required computer power/or storage capacity are insufficient by several orders of magnitude. Other significant changes will be encountered in the factories of tomorrow. In the area of CIM (Computer Integrated Manufacturing), it will be quite normal to integrate functions of the plant production control system, of computer aided design and engineering, and of CAM (Computer Aided Manufacturing). In addition, we will see the integration of non-manufacturing functions within small and large enterprises: ordering, billing, accounting and similar administrative functions. Significant progress will occur not only in the capability of individual workers within a company to communicate with each other, but also to work with unified databases. Bases where each individual piece of d a t a is available within a company only once, without duplication and inherent discrepancies. Alongside these developments, there will be a greater use of robots or material handling terminals. There will be increasing capabilities within the area of computer vision--which will be used in robotics, but in many other areas as well. I've used the future tense, rather than the conditional, to describe most of these directions. But I don't have a crystal ball. It is the business of development laboratories to look to the future, but the range of possibilities for tomorrow's technology is so awesome that no one can be sure how things will work out. We simply have to do everything in our power to harness the available technology for useful--and we hope profitable--purposes. And, as a closing thought, let me say that we, in Europe, have the capability--if we choose to use i t - - t o do that as well as anywhere in the world. Our scientists and engineers from European universities are second to none. There is no reason why Europe should not regain leadership in sectors which are important to our future.