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INTRODUCTION TO URBAN–RURAL MIGRATION IN THE 1970s
I URBAN-RURAL MIGRATION IN THE 1970s
F o r t h e first t i m e in this c e n t u r y , p o p u l a t i o n a n d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h in n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n A m e r i c a is e x c e e d i n g m e t r o p o l i t a n g r o w t h . G r o w t h is o c c u r r i n g in r e m o t e a n d c o m p l e t e l y r u r a l c o u n t i e s as w e l l as in c o u n t i e s t h a t are p a r t l y u r b a n o r d o m i n a t e d b y n e a r b y m e t r o p o l i t a n c e n t e r s . T h e n e w g r o w t h t r e n d s a r e e v i d e n t in m o s t m a j o r r e g i o n s ; t h e y b e g a n in t h e O z a r k - O u a c h i t a u p l a n d s in t h e m i d - 1 9 6 0 s a n d e x t e n d e d t o m o s t o t h e r regions b y the early 1970s. In m o s t r e g i o n s , t h e n e w g r o w t h is e n t i r e l y d u e to c h a n g e s in n e t m i g r a t i o n . M o v e m e n t o f p e o p l e from m e t r o p o l i t a n to n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n areas since 1970 has exceeded the counterflow into metropolitan centers. L o w and convergent rates of natural increase have provided a passive b a c k g r o u n d for t h e s e m i g r a t i o n - i n d u c e d c h a n g e s in p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u tion. T h i s b a c k g r o u n d h a s m a d e t h e p o p u l a t i o n l o s s e s t h r o u g h o u t - m i g r a t i o n from t h e l a r g e s t S t a n d a r d M e t r o p o l i t a n S t a t i s t i c a l A r e a s ( S M S A s ) m o r e visible t h a n w o u l d h a v e b e e n t h e c a s e in p e r i o d s o f h i g h e r fertility. T h e m i g r a t i o n r e v e r s a l is a s p e r v a s i v e a c r o s s s o c i o d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f m o v e r s a s it is a c r o s s r e g i o n s . H o w e v e r , t h e s e a g g r e g a t e p a t t e r n s s h o u l d n o t b e s e e n a s statistically u n i t a r y . T h e y m a s k a n u m b e r o f c o m p l e x c o n d i t i o n s t h a t are s h a p i n g t h e f o r m a n d f u n c t i o n o f rural a n d n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n A m e r i c a in t h e last t h i r d o f this c e n t u r y . T h e C h a p t e r s in t h i s p a r t o f t h e b o o k f o c u s o n t h e c o m p l e x i t y of c h a n g e . T h e y d o c u m e n t this d i v e r s i t y a n d e x a m i n e t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e t u r n a r o u n d for n a t i o n a l p u b l i c p o l i c y . W a r d w e l l a n d B r o w n ( C h a p t e r 1) p r e s e n t a c o m p r e h e n s i v e a n a l y s i s o f 1
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I. U R B A N - R U R A L M I G R A T I O N IN THE 1970s
n a t i o n a l a n d r e g i o n a l c h a n g e s in i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n a n d p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n . T h e y n o t e t h a t t h e g r o w t h o f n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s is t a k i n g p l a c e in t h e c o n t e x t o f t w o o t h e r shifts in p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n : r e g i o n a l r e d i s t r i b u t i o n from t h e N o r t h to t h e S o u t h a n d W e s t , a n d c o n t i n u i n g s u b u r b a n i z a t i o n . All t h r e e o f t h e s e t r e n d s a c t to m o v e p e o p l e a n d e c o n o m i c activities from h i g h e r - d e n s i t y a r e a s to m o r e s p a r s e l y populated locales. T h e dynamics of the nonmetropolitan migration turnaround are detailed in t e r m s o f its c o m p o n e n t c h a n g e s in g r o s s i n - m i g r a t i o n a n d o u t m i g r a t i o n a n d in t e r m s o f p r e v a l e n c e a c r o s s m i g r a n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Wardwell and B r o w n provide insight into the process through which the turnaround was discovered and d o c u m e n t e d . T h e y indicate that e a r l y s k e p t i c i s m a b o u t t h e reality a n d d u r a t i o n o f t h e c h a n g e g r a d u a l l y g a v e w a y to i n t e n s i v e a n a l y s e s o f t h e c a u s e s a n d c o n s e q u e n c e s o f t h e n e w distribution trend. T h e y conclude their chapter with speculations o n t h e effects o f h i g h e r e n e r g y c o s t s o n future p a t t e r n s o f p o p u l a t i o n concentration and deconcentration. T h e structure of nonmetropolitan e m p l o y m e n t has b e c o m e increasi n g l y d i v e r s e a n d d e c r e a s i n g l y agricultural. B e a l e ( C h a p t e r 2 ) p r o v i d e s a p i c t u r e o f t h e r e g i o n a l d i v e r s i t y a n d c o m p l e x i t y o f e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e in m o d e r n - d a y rural A m e r i c a . T h i s c o m p l e x i t y s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e r e is n o s i m p l e e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h e r o l e o f e m p l o y m e n t in t h e n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n m i g r a t i o n t u r n a r o u n d . T h e m i g r a t i o n effect o f e c o n o m i c c h a n g e is e x a m i n e d from v a r i o u s p e r s p e c t i v e s in C h a p t e r s 4 , 5 , 6, 7, 9 , a n d 1 4 . B e a l e ' s d i s c u s s i o n o f e m p l o y m e n t c h a n g e in n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n A m e r i c a f o c u s e s o n s u c h o t h e r i s s u e s as f e m a l e l a b o r - f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n , part-time farming, a n d c o m m u t i n g to metropolitan jobs. Beale discusses the size distribution of e c o n o m i c establishments, pointing out that n o n metropolitan areas have m a n y large e s t a b l i s h m e n t s — e m p l o y e r s that w o u l d b e large e v e n in a m e t r o p o l i t a n c o n t e x t . T h e nonmetropolitan migration turnaround has tended to be uncritically v i e w e d a s a s u c c e s s s t o r y . T h e p r o b l e m s a t t e n d a n t o n r a p i d u n a n ticipated growth have b e e n eclipsed by the pervasiveness of the view t h a t g r o w t h is i n d i c a t i v e o f r i s i n g social a n d e c o n o m i c w e l f a r e . D e a v e r s a n d B r o w n ( C h a p t e r 3 ) e x a m i n e s o m e o f t h e r e a s o n s for t h e g a p , or lag, b e t w e e n c h a n g e d c o n d i t i o n s a n d u n c h a n g e d p o l i c y . T h e v e r y g e o g r a p h i c d i v e r s i t y o f n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n A m e r i c a , n o t e d in C h a p ters 1 a n d 2 , c o n t r i b u t e s to t h e l o w political s a l i e n c e o f t h e p r o b l e m s o f growth. Attention has remained focused on those nonmetropolitan a r e a s t h a t a r e n o t p a r t i c i p a t i n g in r e n e w e d g r o w t h — t h o s e t h a t a r e e x periencing stagnant e c o n o m i c conditions and stable or declining populat i o n . B e c a u s e p o p u l a t i o n d e c l i n e w a s t h e rule for m o s t o f rural A m e r i c a
I. U R B A N - R U R A L M I G R A T I O N IN THE 1970s
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for 3 0 y e a r s , p u b l i c p o l i c i e s a n d p r o g r a m s w e r e f o r m u l a t e d p r i m a r i l y to m e e t t h e p r o b l e m o f lack o f g r o w t h . D e a v e r s a n d B r o w n point out that the p r o b l e m s of g r o w t h are neither u n i f o r m n o r a p p r o p r i a t e l y a d d r e s s e d b y t r a d i t i o n a l p r o g r a m s a i m e d at rural p o v e r t y a n d e c o n o m i c d i s t r e s s . T h e y d o n o t s u g g e s t a b a n d o n i n g e x i s t i n g p r o g r a m s , for m u c h rural p o v e r t y a n d u n e q u a l a c c e s s t o i n s t i t u t i o n s a n d s e r v i c e s r e m a i n . R a t h e r , t h e y call for a d d i t i o n a l a t t e n t i o n to t h e n e w p r o b l e m s o f a d a p t a t i o n to g r o w t h - i n d u c e d c h a n g e s . T h e d e m o g r a p h i c c o m p o s i t i o n o f g r o w i n g a r e a s , for e x a m p l e , is m a r k e d l y different from t h a t o f s t a b l e a n d d e c l i n i n g a r e a s . T h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s call for a different m i x o f s e r v i c e s a n d facilities. L o w s e t t l e m e n t d e n s i t y a n d r e l a tive p h y s i c a l i s o l a t i o n r e m a i n t h e d o m i n a n t e c o l o g i c a l p a r a m e t e r s for m a n y n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s t h a t are f a c e d w i t h r i s i n g s e r v i c e n e e d s a n d c h a n g e d s e r v i c e m i x e s . T h e s e p a r a m e t e r s c r e a t e u n i q u e p r o b l e m s in satisfying t h e n e e d s b r o u g h t a b o u t b y n e w a n d l a r g e l y u n a n t i c i p a t e d g r o w t h . T h e l i m i t e d c a p a c i t y for i n s t i t u t i o n a l a d a p t a t i o n to p o p u l a t i o n a n d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h in i m p a c t e d a r e a s w a s p a r t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n p r o b l e m in n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n A m e r i c a in t h e 1 9 7 0 s .
F o r t h e first t i m e in this c e n t u r y , p o p u l a t i o n a n d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h in n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n A m e r i c a is e x c e e d i n g m e t r o p o l i t a n g r o w t h . G r o w t h is o c c u r r i n g in r e m o t e a n d c o m p l e t e l y r u r a l c o u n t i e s as w e l l as in c o u n t i e s t h a t are p a r t l y u r b a n o r d o m i n a t e d b y n e a r b y m e t r o p o l i t a n c e n t e r s . T h e n e w g r o w t h t r e n d s a r e e v i d e n t in m o s t m a j o r r e g i o n s ; t h e y b e g a n in t h e O z a r k - O u a c h i t a u p l a n d s in t h e m i d - 1 9 6 0 s a n d e x t e n d e d t o m o s t o t h e r regions b y the early 1970s. In m o s t r e g i o n s , t h e n e w g r o w t h is e n t i r e l y d u e to c h a n g e s in n e t m i g r a t i o n . M o v e m e n t o f p e o p l e from m e t r o p o l i t a n to n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n areas since 1970 has exceeded the counterflow into metropolitan centers. L o w and convergent rates of natural increase have provided a passive b a c k g r o u n d for t h e s e m i g r a t i o n - i n d u c e d c h a n g e s in p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u tion. T h i s b a c k g r o u n d h a s m a d e t h e p o p u l a t i o n l o s s e s t h r o u g h o u t - m i g r a t i o n from t h e l a r g e s t S t a n d a r d M e t r o p o l i t a n S t a t i s t i c a l A r e a s ( S M S A s ) m o r e visible t h a n w o u l d h a v e b e e n t h e c a s e in p e r i o d s o f h i g h e r fertility. T h e m i g r a t i o n r e v e r s a l is a s p e r v a s i v e a c r o s s s o c i o d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f m o v e r s a s it is a c r o s s r e g i o n s . H o w e v e r , t h e s e a g g r e g a t e p a t t e r n s s h o u l d n o t b e s e e n a s statistically u n i t a r y . T h e y m a s k a n u m b e r o f c o m p l e x c o n d i t i o n s t h a t are s h a p i n g t h e f o r m a n d f u n c t i o n o f rural a n d n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n A m e r i c a in t h e last t h i r d o f this c e n t u r y . T h e C h a p t e r s in t h i s p a r t o f t h e b o o k f o c u s o n t h e c o m p l e x i t y of c h a n g e . T h e y d o c u m e n t this d i v e r s i t y a n d e x a m i n e t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e t u r n a r o u n d for n a t i o n a l p u b l i c p o l i c y . W a r d w e l l a n d B r o w n ( C h a p t e r 1) p r e s e n t a c o m p r e h e n s i v e a n a l y s i s o f 1
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I. U R B A N - R U R A L M I G R A T I O N IN THE 1970s
n a t i o n a l a n d r e g i o n a l c h a n g e s in i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n a n d p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n . T h e y n o t e t h a t t h e g r o w t h o f n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s is t a k i n g p l a c e in t h e c o n t e x t o f t w o o t h e r shifts in p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n : r e g i o n a l r e d i s t r i b u t i o n from t h e N o r t h to t h e S o u t h a n d W e s t , a n d c o n t i n u i n g s u b u r b a n i z a t i o n . All t h r e e o f t h e s e t r e n d s a c t to m o v e p e o p l e a n d e c o n o m i c activities from h i g h e r - d e n s i t y a r e a s to m o r e s p a r s e l y populated locales. T h e dynamics of the nonmetropolitan migration turnaround are detailed in t e r m s o f its c o m p o n e n t c h a n g e s in g r o s s i n - m i g r a t i o n a n d o u t m i g r a t i o n a n d in t e r m s o f p r e v a l e n c e a c r o s s m i g r a n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Wardwell and B r o w n provide insight into the process through which the turnaround was discovered and d o c u m e n t e d . T h e y indicate that e a r l y s k e p t i c i s m a b o u t t h e reality a n d d u r a t i o n o f t h e c h a n g e g r a d u a l l y g a v e w a y to i n t e n s i v e a n a l y s e s o f t h e c a u s e s a n d c o n s e q u e n c e s o f t h e n e w distribution trend. T h e y conclude their chapter with speculations o n t h e effects o f h i g h e r e n e r g y c o s t s o n future p a t t e r n s o f p o p u l a t i o n concentration and deconcentration. T h e structure of nonmetropolitan e m p l o y m e n t has b e c o m e increasi n g l y d i v e r s e a n d d e c r e a s i n g l y agricultural. B e a l e ( C h a p t e r 2 ) p r o v i d e s a p i c t u r e o f t h e r e g i o n a l d i v e r s i t y a n d c o m p l e x i t y o f e c o n o m i c s t r u c t u r e in m o d e r n - d a y rural A m e r i c a . T h i s c o m p l e x i t y s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e r e is n o s i m p l e e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h e r o l e o f e m p l o y m e n t in t h e n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n m i g r a t i o n t u r n a r o u n d . T h e m i g r a t i o n effect o f e c o n o m i c c h a n g e is e x a m i n e d from v a r i o u s p e r s p e c t i v e s in C h a p t e r s 4 , 5 , 6, 7, 9 , a n d 1 4 . B e a l e ' s d i s c u s s i o n o f e m p l o y m e n t c h a n g e in n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n A m e r i c a f o c u s e s o n s u c h o t h e r i s s u e s as f e m a l e l a b o r - f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n , part-time farming, a n d c o m m u t i n g to metropolitan jobs. Beale discusses the size distribution of e c o n o m i c establishments, pointing out that n o n metropolitan areas have m a n y large e s t a b l i s h m e n t s — e m p l o y e r s that w o u l d b e large e v e n in a m e t r o p o l i t a n c o n t e x t . T h e nonmetropolitan migration turnaround has tended to be uncritically v i e w e d a s a s u c c e s s s t o r y . T h e p r o b l e m s a t t e n d a n t o n r a p i d u n a n ticipated growth have b e e n eclipsed by the pervasiveness of the view t h a t g r o w t h is i n d i c a t i v e o f r i s i n g social a n d e c o n o m i c w e l f a r e . D e a v e r s a n d B r o w n ( C h a p t e r 3 ) e x a m i n e s o m e o f t h e r e a s o n s for t h e g a p , or lag, b e t w e e n c h a n g e d c o n d i t i o n s a n d u n c h a n g e d p o l i c y . T h e v e r y g e o g r a p h i c d i v e r s i t y o f n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n A m e r i c a , n o t e d in C h a p ters 1 a n d 2 , c o n t r i b u t e s to t h e l o w political s a l i e n c e o f t h e p r o b l e m s o f growth. Attention has remained focused on those nonmetropolitan a r e a s t h a t a r e n o t p a r t i c i p a t i n g in r e n e w e d g r o w t h — t h o s e t h a t a r e e x periencing stagnant e c o n o m i c conditions and stable or declining populat i o n . B e c a u s e p o p u l a t i o n d e c l i n e w a s t h e rule for m o s t o f rural A m e r i c a
I. U R B A N - R U R A L M I G R A T I O N IN THE 1970s
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for 3 0 y e a r s , p u b l i c p o l i c i e s a n d p r o g r a m s w e r e f o r m u l a t e d p r i m a r i l y to m e e t t h e p r o b l e m o f lack o f g r o w t h . D e a v e r s a n d B r o w n point out that the p r o b l e m s of g r o w t h are neither u n i f o r m n o r a p p r o p r i a t e l y a d d r e s s e d b y t r a d i t i o n a l p r o g r a m s a i m e d at rural p o v e r t y a n d e c o n o m i c d i s t r e s s . T h e y d o n o t s u g g e s t a b a n d o n i n g e x i s t i n g p r o g r a m s , for m u c h rural p o v e r t y a n d u n e q u a l a c c e s s t o i n s t i t u t i o n s a n d s e r v i c e s r e m a i n . R a t h e r , t h e y call for a d d i t i o n a l a t t e n t i o n to t h e n e w p r o b l e m s o f a d a p t a t i o n to g r o w t h - i n d u c e d c h a n g e s . T h e d e m o g r a p h i c c o m p o s i t i o n o f g r o w i n g a r e a s , for e x a m p l e , is m a r k e d l y different from t h a t o f s t a b l e a n d d e c l i n i n g a r e a s . T h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s call for a different m i x o f s e r v i c e s a n d facilities. L o w s e t t l e m e n t d e n s i t y a n d r e l a tive p h y s i c a l i s o l a t i o n r e m a i n t h e d o m i n a n t e c o l o g i c a l p a r a m e t e r s for m a n y n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s t h a t are f a c e d w i t h r i s i n g s e r v i c e n e e d s a n d c h a n g e d s e r v i c e m i x e s . T h e s e p a r a m e t e r s c r e a t e u n i q u e p r o b l e m s in satisfying t h e n e e d s b r o u g h t a b o u t b y n e w a n d l a r g e l y u n a n t i c i p a t e d g r o w t h . T h e l i m i t e d c a p a c i t y for i n s t i t u t i o n a l a d a p t a t i o n to p o p u l a t i o n a n d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h in i m p a c t e d a r e a s w a s p a r t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n p r o b l e m in n o n m e t r o p o l i t a n A m e r i c a in t h e 1 9 7 0 s .