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Intuition and forecasting—A holistic approach
Intuition and Forecasting A Holistic Approach Hugh Marlow
A
HOLISTIC APPROACH
TO the
fOreCaSting
Of SOCial,
political and economic trends is one way of coming to terms with the complex world which has emerged after the end of the cold war. Business now has to operate in an environment with an increasing degree of uncertainty. Any methodology which can help executives to deal with the uncertainty in decision-making should be of significant benefit to any business enterprise which needs to set company goals and objectives within a national and global environment. The Delphic method of forecasting described in this article is just such an approach.
Identifying Intuitive Skills From 1967-1974 the author worked as a senior consultant with AWInbucon in the field of executive appraisal and organization development. The results of in-depth appraisal of senior executives showed that a small number of the total sample possessed an outstanding track record in anticipating technological change. The management climate of the time did not encourage such executives to admit that the starting point was an intuitive feel. This hunch was then subjected to a process of logical examination and resulted in decisions which in many cases enabled the executives to exploit significant business opportunities. In the confidential atmosphere of a face to face discussion they were ready to admit that the crucial factor in their success was the initial hunch which they had learnt to trust. However, to obtain support for their ideas it was necessary to forget the hunch and concentrate on a logically prepared paper which would obtain support on its own merits. Evidence began to appear that ‘the ability to anticipate technological change’ was only one of a number of linked Pergamon 0024-8301(94)00054-9
The author argues that a holistic approach to forecasting, linking intuitive qkililswith analogical reasoning,and p&e&n recognition; can achievebetter results than mathematical modefling. The methodolugy can be used for forecasting social, political and economic event& and hasa contributidn to make to corporate strategy. The profileof executives who are likely to possessihis skill has be& id&iiied and may be used in developing this ability.
skills. The other skills were, ‘the ability to identify and anticipate business opportunities’ and ‘the ability to anticipate social, political and economic change’. The notion that anticipation is at the heart of business success now seems to be gaining more general acceptance.‘l
The Greek Connection Delphi is the outstanding example of attempts in the ancient world to forecast political and related events. Unfortunately, its reputation is shrouded in dispute. As one of the foremost centres of the ancient world, it was in all probability an important source of military, economic, political and social intelligence. The oracle appears to have combined the intuitive insights of the Pythia with the information obtained from emissaries who came from all over the known world. This combination of inductive and deductive skills probably resulted in the first holistic approach to forecasting.’ 0
A method of forecasting developed in the late sixties in the USA became known as the Delphi Method. Long Range Planning Vol. 27, No 6, pp. 58-68, 1994 Copyright 0 1994 Elsevier Science Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved 0024-6301/94 $7.00+.00
The climate of the 1990s has produced a remarkable change and has set the scene for the recognition of intuition as a key contributor to management success. In a recent issue of Long Range Planning, Ralph Stacey suggested that executives should consider decision making as ‘an exploratory, experimental process based on intuition and reasoning by analogy’.3 In early 1991, the author decided to build on the earlier work of ‘Profiling’ which had included anticipatory skills as a key element in managerial effectiveness.4 It was decided to test whether the use of an intuitive/holistic approach could provide a more effective alternative to forecasting social, political and economic trends than existing methods based on mathematical modelling. The success or failure of such methods depends on whether the events which comprise the laboratory model can be contained within a closed system; such as those used by mathematics and engineering technologies. Difficulties arise when the environment contains variables leading to changes which will modify the expected outcome. The early results were promising, as shown by the following example. The political analysts using the Bristol University computer predicted the results for the 1992 General Election. Gordon Reece, the University of Bristol’s Professor of Computing, said on 27 March 1992, ‘I’m advising everyone not to waste their money’ (betting on the election result). Professor Reece and his colleagues in the Engineering Mathematics Department forecast a Labour lead by 20 seats, 20 to the Liberal Democrats and 10 to the Nationalists. This would then prompt another election in the Autumn when Labour would secure a majority.5 The forecasts made by the author in the journal, Future Tense, were as follows: 0
go down
to a fourth
2. ‘The UK General Election would not take place until the latest possible date in the life of the current Parliament. Also, the Conservatives would have to go to the country without the assistance of “the feel good factor”.’ February 1992 Edition ‘The retention of many of the most unthinking aspects of the Thatcher years is
a clear
working
The intuitive approach on which these Future Tense forecasts were made clearly proved superior to the computer based model of Bristol University. Samuel Brittan’s comments on the Treasury record and that of the London Business School suggest that spending large sums of money on computer-based systems to forecast economic trends does little to improve results6 Indeed, the best record is achieved by the medium based companies who accept that their systems, limited in complexity and scope by cost, do not inhibit their own analysts from modifying the computer output in the light of their experience and their sense of what is happening.
Analysing the Russian Coup The methodology commences with the use of intuition to evaluate the likely outcome or significance of the event or situation selected for study. This means noting the feelings which are associated with the event. The way in which the process develops can best be illustrated by using a specific example ; namely, that of the failed Russian coup of 19-21 August 1991. The evaluation was undertaken for a major West German company. Early on the morning of the 19th, I received a telephone call from the client, a senior director. I was asked to advise on the likely success or otherwise of the Russian coup as the company was heavily exposed on the foreign exchange market. My immediate, first, intuitive feel was that the coup was unlikely to succeed. However, I asked for an hour to make an initial evaluation based on: o
March 1991 Edition:
1. ‘The Labour Party would General Election defeat.’
0
likely to cost the Conservatives majority at the General Election.’
an historical revolution,
comparison
with
the
1917/1919
R an assessment of the similarities, differences and the unique elements of the 1991 coup attempt compared with that of 191i’/1919, CI an analysis of the roles and personality the key players, 0
the nature of the current political Soviet Union and the West,
0
the impact of the social and economic stances on the likely success of the coup. Long Range Planning
Vol. 27
profiles
situation
of
in the circum-
December
1994
The Components The difficulty of analysing such a situation is that it is like watching and trying to predict how a cloud formation will change and reform, disappear and reappear. The intuitive sensing is followed by a multidisciplined analysis which includes analogical thinking and pattern recognition. Also included is an historical and psychological analysis of the players and the events.
The Historical Analysis An important factor in the ability to undertake such an analysis is a detached and objective frame of mind. The individual analyst’s perception of the desired result must be put on one side. The historical comparison revealed some interesting insights relative to the role of Leningrad (St Petersburg) compared with Moscow and that of the Soviet (Russian) armed forces. In 1917/1919 the mass desertions and breakdown of discipline in the Army and later in the Navy had clearly left a deep scar on the Soviet Armed forces. This was exemplified by Stalin’s purges of the High Command in the mid-1930s. It was clear that in 1991 the Army was loath to face a head-on armed clash with the Russian people if it seemed that they were against the coup leaders. The historical analysis confirmed that the role of Leningrad and not Moscow was a key factor in the 1917/1919 revolution. The historical evidence suggested that Leningrad would point the way. The events of the coup followed a traditional pattern, i.e. the seizure of communication centres, the use of disinformation, particularly with regard to the situation in Leningrad where it was claimed that the Mayor, a pro-reformist, had been arrested, the attempts to silence Boris Yeltsin and the holding of Gorbachev under house arrest. However, a study of the personalities of the conspirators revealed that in the words of the press they were all ‘grey men’. There was no Lenin, Trotsky or Stalin amongst them. The men of character who stood out were the imprisoned Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin. It was this initial analysis of the events of 1917/ 1919 compared with August 1991 that led me to telephone my German client an hour later to say that, ‘I believed the coup was unlikely to succeed despite the fact that it was following a conventional course’. I Intuition and Forecasting-A
Holistic Approach
indicated that Boris Yeltsin needed 24 hours to marshal1 support, particularly of Muscovites who were more passive than the Leningraders. An encouraging small piece of news to come later in the day was that the Mayor of Leningrad had negotiated a stand-off with the local military commander. This was contrary to the earlier disinformation and revealed the anxiety of the coup leaders about the role of Leningrad in determining events. On Tuesday, 20 August, the reluctance of the military to become seriously involved against the Muscovites and Boris Yeltsin was becoming apparent. The support of the elite Tamaya tank unit was of great symbolic importance to the Muscovites and indicated a possible split in the loyalty of the army. This must have been a deciding factor in the minds of the Soviet High Command, reviving past fears of a rank and file forces revolt. I informed my German client on the Tuesday evening that the events of the next 12 hours would be decisive. I believed (intuitively) that on the Wednesday morning the White House would still be standing and that Boris Yeltsin would be alive. On the Wednesday morning I was able to confirm my forecast and added that the Wednesday evening would see the conspirators flying to meet Gorbachev to make their peace. This would signal that the new climate of Perestroika was still alive despite the events of the last few days.
The Professionals The views follows :
expressed
by the professionals
were
as
Conor Cruise O’Brien, writing in The Times on 28 August 1991, admitted he was wrong about the Soviet Coup. He joined other experts, indeed most of the Western leaders and the press corps. Edward Fennell, Moscow, The Times, 27 August 1991: ‘Our Soviet Staff were convinced it was the end of glasnost, perestroika, and the end of us’. Edward Mortimer, Financial Times, 20 August 1991: ‘Back towards the Old World Order’. Anthony Bevin, Political Editor, The Independent, 21 August 1991: ‘Major sees no need for return of Gorbachev’. Chancellor Helmut Kohl on Monday 19 August 1991, sought a tacit agreement with the new regime.
0
President George Bush instinctively felt the crisis should not interfere with the improvement in EastWest relations. Only seventy hours after the coup did he finally declare against it.
This is only one of many instances where the conclusions of the Delphic method have run counter to the prevailing view of the experts. It has established a track record which demands attention. My West German client was able to make E~,Z~O,OOO on the foreign exchange market because the prevailing view of dealers worldwide was that the coup would be successful.
The Holistic Model The holistic model is based on a time, event and location analysis. The basic model is shown in Figure 1.
This three-dimensional model was initially developed to illustrate the use of the model in corporate strategy. In relation to the Soviet coup, the initial product or service should be redefined as the existing and proposed political systems represented by the Tzarist regime and the Communist Party in 1917/19. The reformist model proposed by Gorbachev should be compared with a return to the unreformed party system and in 1993 an attempt to block the Yeltsin measures for more radical change. The breakdown of the events shows the similarities, dissimilarities, the unique elements and the overall pattern of the three coups. It is this detailed analysis that must support or challenge the initial intuitive analysis.
Time The time dimension covers the past, present and future. In Figure 2, the past is represented by the 1917/19 Russian Revolution, the present by the August 1991 abortive coup and the future by the October 1993 coup against Yeltsin. The purpose of Figures 3 and 4 is to show how the time, event, and location analyses provide the data for forecasting.
Location The location
dimension
is designed
to show the key
centres or locations which are relevant to the passage of events. This is particularly important in terms of differences which may indicate a change in the focus of political power.
Events The event dimension is a detailed analysis of the activities associated with the past, present and future. Figure 4 shows the key elements associated with the 1917-1919 Russian Revolution, the 1991 abortive coup and the 1993 attempted coup against Yeltsin. The activities clearly show the similarities, differences and the unique elements in each situation. The diagrams used to illustrate the analysis of the Russian Coup in 1991 were followed by a forecast on 13 March 1993, that, ‘Boris Yeltsin would survive the Parliamentary challenge to his authority and would hold office until the next Presidential elections’. The analysis of the October 1993 abortive coup proved this statement correct. The analysis of the different events shows the similarities and differences between them and the complexity of the analysis that is involved, based on intuition, analogical reasoning and pattern recognition. The holistic approach shows how important it is to be able to identify the key factors which are likely to be critical to the outcome and to be able to do this consistently. The methodology that is used enables the degree of uncertainty surrounding political, economic and social events to be substantially reduced.
Application Failure
to Business
Success/
In 1981 the author was collecting material for a publication which included a chapter on Marketing, Public Relations and Corporate Image. The particular incident which attracted attention was one in which an engineer who was called as a witness in a court action stated that, in his opinion, a new Rolls Royce was unroadworthy and would not pass an MOT test.7 The reply of the Rolls’ representative to these criticisms was not unexpected; it was, ‘We produce a different motor car from those built by Japanese robots, excellent though they may be’. The author commented, ‘The difficulty with the Rolls image is that the combination of engineering Long Range Planning Vol. 27
December 1994
,I \
INITIAL PRODUCT/SERVICE I
EVENT DIMENSION
- PRESENT \
PRODUCT/SERVICE SPECIFICATION
EVENT DIMENSION-FUTURE
PRODUCT/SERVICE SPECIFICATION (FUTURE)
FIGURE1. The holistic model for forecasting.
Intuition and Forecasting-A
Holistic Approach
\
_\
.I.,,.I’,!;:, .“Y, I,,,, ~ ;,; ,_ ,_“,‘_ ., ,, ‘: :, : ,,:I: ‘, ::L :..;,I
.,
,,_ ‘, ;::I:t,t: :_,‘,
;;:_>
:
:
_‘,:
:. .,,,,
_ji ,,,,I _,
,: :,.
,._
;,,
.’ .’ :.
PAST
,’
:*
THE 1917-1919
RUSSIAN
REVOLUTION
.I ‘j
.i:y, vi _li,:
PRESENT
THE 1991 ABORTIVE COUP
\
:‘, ,:,’ ,.,( ‘, ,, FUTURE
..: ;,: ,, ‘., ,’ :, ‘:,.:;: : :‘:.. >,:;,, .. ,_,‘.
THE 1993 ABORTIVE COUP AGAINST
YELTSIN
\ ,’ ,‘_ :
.,
,
: :,
:.
.’
:
FIGURE2.The time dimension. skills and hand-crafted work depends on a market which may now be too small to support the existing business. The need is to define an alternative, wider market, which will combine the quality image of the Rolls with the standards of precision achieved at a lower cost by robots’. The end of the story might be different if the Rolls Royce executives could bring themselves to consider projecting a two-tier corporate image in the market place. This two-tier image would comprise the existing market, with an expected gradual decline in volume, together with a Rolls Royce which combines the virtues of robotic engineering with the cost advantage this would give, and with the refinements of finish and interior trim which would put the new model clearly above ‘the top range of BMW, Jaguar and Mercedes’.’ The chapter concerned was appropriately entitled, ‘The End of the Road for Rolls Royce Motors ?’ On 5 September 1993, on page 8 of the Business Section of the Sunday Times, the following article appeared, ‘Rolls Royce Drives Back from the Brink, by Andrew Lorenz. The following are extracts from the articles9 ‘After two nightmarish years, Britain’s most famous luxury product is back from a near fatal crash’. ‘Quality
was inadequate and the level of warranty claims too high.’ ‘The business is all about delivering product and service. We were very poor at that’, Bernard Preston, Director of Quality. ‘Ward says one option (for the future] is to develop a new entry level Bentley below the present Brooklands, but above the E80,OOOprice level of the BMW 8 series and Mercedes 500/600SLs.' The analysis made by the author in 1983 using the holistic method anticipated in detail the solution proposed by Rolls in 1993. The forecast made in 1983 has taken 11 years to be recognized for its appropriateness. It is worth asking what the result would have been if the recommendations and forecast made by the author had been acted upon at the time.
Economic Forecasts Economic forecasts are prepared on a worldwide basis in the form of scenarios in the journal Future Tense. This can best be illustrated by taking the section on UK Economic Prospects for 1991, 1992, and 1993. The 1991 forecast summarized the prospects for the UK at the beginning of the year by saying that ‘the UK Long Range Planning Vol.27
December 1994
THE 1917-1919
PAST
RUSSIAN REVOLUTION
Key locations St. Petersburg and Moscow
\PRESENT
THE 1991 ABORTIVE COUP \ Key locations, Leningrad (St. Petersburg), Moscow and the industrial hinterland comprising the steel and coal complexes.
FUTURE
THE 1993 ABORTIVE COUP AGAINST YELTSIN \ Key locations, St. Petersburg (Leningrad), Moscow and the semi-autonomous regions of the CIS.
FIGURE 3. The location dimension.
1 downturn would be long and deep’. This was contrary to the view expressed by the Chancellor and the London Business School that ‘it would be short and shallow’. In the Midsummer 1991 issue of the journal it was stated ‘that the UK economy would not see an upturn until May/June 1992 and that when it arose it would be slow, patchy and faltering’. The 1993 forecast, made again at the beginning of the year, stated that ‘the UK recovery will be slow, steady but unspectacular’.
The Detailed Basic Economic Data The basic economic data includes a 12 month forecast for GDP, inflation, balance of payments and unemployIntuition and Forecasting-A
Holistic Approach
ment. Particular attention is paid to identifying changes in trend in advance of other institutions. The quality of the detailed forecasts compares well with that of other forecasters. Recipients of the journal include such institutions as The Treasury, The Chartered Institute of Bankers and the CBI.
The Special Situation Reports These have been a special feature of the work and have included, amongst others, the French Referendum, the American Presidential Election and the second Danish Referendum. All were made well in advance of the event and proved correct. Recently two special reports were commissioned by Anglian Water Plc, on Invest-
THE 1917-1919
RUSSIAN
REVOLUTION
The defeat and demoralization of the Russian army on the Western front. The loss of popular support for the Tsar. The economic privatisations caused by World War I. The high profile charismatic role of the revolutionaries, Lenin, Trotsky, etc. The key role of St. Petersburg, particularly the bombardment of the Winter Palace by the Navy. The Muscovites lagged behind the lead of St. Petersburg. The Western powers actively supported the Tsar and did all they could to encourage the White Russians against the Reds.
THE 1991 ABORTIVE COUP The loss of face of the military brought about by the withdrawal from Afghanistan. The uncertainty caused in the ranks of the Communist Party by the Gorbachev reforms. The economic dislocation and loss of priveliges for members of the Communist Party caused by the reforms. The failure of ‘Perestroika’ to produce immediate benefits for the mass of the Russian people. The unpopularity of Gorbachev at home despite worldwide acclaim abroad. Gorbachev imprisoned under house arrest. The initial outward signs of a succesful coup but the ‘grey men’ in practice acted in a confused and uncertain way. The role of the flamboyant, unstable but charismatic Boris Yeltsin. The key influence of the stand-off agreement between the Mayor of Leningrad and the local military commander. The failure to silence Boris Yeltsin in the first 24 hours and the time this gave him to obtain support from the miners and steel workers. The way in which the supporters of Yeltsin and untypically a large number of Muscovites gathered to defend the White House aided by the defectors from the crack Tamaya tank unit. The failure of the military to press home the attack designed to achieve control of the Moscow ring road. Western leaders initially prepared to make peace with the coup leaders and to do business with them.
THE 1993 ABORTIVE COUP AGAINST
YELTSIN
The ongoing conflict between the Russian Parliament and the Yeltsin reformers. The economic difficulties caused by the reform programme. The conspirators, apart from Rutskoi, were in the main discredited old Party hacks. The military response was an open question owing to the disaffection caused by the withdrawal of Russian forces from Eastern Europe, and by poor morale. Yeltsin made every effort to buy the support of the military just before the coup. Yeltsin still had significant popular support from his previous stand but it was fading. The military were clearly divided and indecisive until the last moment when they threw their weight behind Yeltsin and against Parliament. The Muscovites demonstrated their traditional passivity by the way in which they treated the seige of Parliament as a piece of theatre. The Western powers supported Yeltsin from the outset. The weakness of Yeltsin’s unstable personality was clearly shown in post-coup reports when it appeared that at a crucial moment he panicked.
FIGURE 4. The event dimension.
Long Range Planning
Vol. 27
December
1994
ment Prospects in East Germany, and on the Polish General Election and its likely impact on joint ventures.
The European Fighter Aircraft The author in 1987 wrote in a paper entitled, ‘Anticipatory Skills, A New Perspective’,” ‘that it was unlikely that the Star Wars programme would be able to meet its strategic objectives with the technology available by the year 2000’. As readers will know, this has proved accurate and resulted in a bill of f;20bn for the American taxpayer with little to show for the expenditure. In the Autumn of 1992 the writer considered that the Germans were quite correct in asking for a total review of the European Fighter Aircraft programme. Intensive pressure was put on them to draw back from their initial intention of withdrawing from the project. Cost estimates were revised but have again been the cause of anxiety in recent months. Evidence is now becoming available which suggests that it is highly unlikely that the European Fighter Aircraft will ever achieve full operational status.” The same error in assessing development prospects has been made that caused the cancellation of Star Wars. In the mid 19i’Os, working as a consultant in the defence industry, examining the causes for cost and time overruns and underperformance, it became clear that the most important factor was the pressure on the initiators of a project to overreach the limits of the available technology. The failure in every case was the non-identification of the cost (in time and resources) needed to go beyond the existing state of the art. If in any such project more than one key element exceeded the existing know-how, then the project was almost certain to result in a massive escalation of costs and time estimates with the required performance not being achieved. The latest evidence from the European Fighter Aircraft programme shows that the initial specification to design a stable flight capability with a nonaerodynamic shape is going beyond the existing technological know-how in terms of automatic flight control systems. The addition of problems with the
Intuition and Forecasting-A
Holistic Approach
electrical systems and the transmission indicates a series of interrelated issues which put a question mark over the whole project. Unfortunately, the costs already incurred (c32bn) make it difficult for those responsible to admit that the project was ill-conceived.
Executives Who Possess Anticipatory Skills The original ‘Profiles for Success’ programme identified three separate anticipatory skills. An article in The Personnel Manager’s Yearbook for 1990 indicated some of the characteristics shared by executives who possessed these abilities, for the purposes of executive selection and training in anticipatory skills.” This profile has now been extended and comprises the following characteristics which are usually associated with anticipatory skills (see Figure 5).
The Implications of this Work for Organizational Effectiveness The findings from this work have some very clear implications for organizational effectiveness. They are : The ability to anticipate the way future events are likely to unfold can mean earlier action to correct potential problems or to exploit opportunities. The facility to narrow down a number of alternative business scenarios to one preferred option at an earlier stage can do much to achieve an advantage over competitors. The skill in handling complex events should be approached in such a way that the elements of similarity, dissimilarity and uniqueness can be identified for their significance and impact on business decisions. This will enable a higher degree of certainty to be established with regard to the required end results. The ability to anticipate future events correctly has significant implications for the training and development of political commentators, diplomats, military leaders and of course, senior executives.
(a)
These executives wil tend to come from family backgrounds in which a strong maternal influence was in evidence. Very often this will mean that a mother or grandmother was known as someone who possessed a ‘sixth sense’. Very often the evidence will be anecdotal. In other cases specific instances of such insights will be remembered and quoted.
(b)
At a very early stage of their education they will tend to see different topics and subjects as related to each other in a holistic
way. They will tend to have a record of learning by seeing things as Gestalt who/es. Their learning process will tend to follow a series of insights rather than simple logical steps. (4
They are likely to score highly on pattern recognition or spatial tests.
(e)
The tendency to see things as wholes will lead to a reflective as we// as a practical outlook. They will show an almost equal measure of introvert and extrovert qualities. They will tend to have a high tolerance of stress, particularly in respect of ambiguity and uncertainty. They will tend to be individuals who form a framework of belief and action based on their own experience rather than taken from a particular sect or established belief system.
(h)
They will show an ability to move easily and comfortably between their own past, present and future. They will be able to relate this ability to the organization or function they lead.
(i)
This ability to move easily between their own past, present and future will, in many instances, lead to a fee/ for historical processes. This will enable them to understand the complex nature of social, political and economic events.
(j)
They will show in practice an ability to use inductive and deductive ski//s as appropriate. Depending upon the depth of their experience they will to a varying degree have made explicit to themselves an understanding of the nature of their own abilities.
FIGURE!5 The qualities likely to be assaciated with potential or actual anticipatory
skills.
Long Range Planning
Vol. 27
December
1994
References 1. Anticipation is the Name of the Game, European ManagementJournal, the Financial Times, 13/g/89.
reported by Michael Skapinker in
2. Histoire de la Divination dans I’Antiquite, Tome Troisieme Oracle de Delphos. Les Sacerdocesand Methodes de /‘Oracle Apollien, pp. 75-207, Bouche Leclerq, Paris (1880).
Les
3. Ralph Stacey, Strategy as Order Emerging from Chaos, LongRange Planning, 26 (1) 1 O-17 (1993). 4. Hugh Marlow, Profiling for Success, 23rd International Human Resource Management Conference, 3-5
April, MCE Barcelona (1991). 5. Lin Jenkins, Computer Predicts a Labour Majority, Times, 27/2/92,
p. 11 (1992).
6. Samuel Brittan, Longer recession here after all, Economic Viewpoint, Financial Times, 19/l 2/91 (1991). 7. f 50,000 Rolls Unsafe, Daily Telegraph, 17/l O/81, p.2 (1881). 8. Hugh Marlow, The End of the Road for Rolls-Royce Motors?, Success. Individual, Corporate andNational, IPM (1984). 9. Andrew Lorenz, Rolls-Royce Drives Backfromthe Brink,Sunday TimesBusinessSection,
5/9/93
(1993).
10. Anticipatory Skills, A New Perspective, A paper prepared for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, June (1989). 11. New Row as Germans Attack Eurofighter, Sunday Times, Business, 1 O/l O/93 (1993). 12. Hugh Marlow, Executive Selection for the 90s Organisation, Personnel Manager’s Yearbook 1990 (1990).
Intuition and Forecasting-A
Holistic Approach
A
HOLISTIC APPROACH
TO the
fOreCaSting
Of SOCial,
political and economic trends is one way of coming to terms with the complex world which has emerged after the end of the cold war. Business now has to operate in an environment with an increasing degree of uncertainty. Any methodology which can help executives to deal with the uncertainty in decision-making should be of significant benefit to any business enterprise which needs to set company goals and objectives within a national and global environment. The Delphic method of forecasting described in this article is just such an approach.
Identifying Intuitive Skills From 1967-1974 the author worked as a senior consultant with AWInbucon in the field of executive appraisal and organization development. The results of in-depth appraisal of senior executives showed that a small number of the total sample possessed an outstanding track record in anticipating technological change. The management climate of the time did not encourage such executives to admit that the starting point was an intuitive feel. This hunch was then subjected to a process of logical examination and resulted in decisions which in many cases enabled the executives to exploit significant business opportunities. In the confidential atmosphere of a face to face discussion they were ready to admit that the crucial factor in their success was the initial hunch which they had learnt to trust. However, to obtain support for their ideas it was necessary to forget the hunch and concentrate on a logically prepared paper which would obtain support on its own merits. Evidence began to appear that ‘the ability to anticipate technological change’ was only one of a number of linked Pergamon 0024-8301(94)00054-9
The author argues that a holistic approach to forecasting, linking intuitive qkililswith analogical reasoning,and p&e&n recognition; can achievebetter results than mathematical modefling. The methodolugy can be used for forecasting social, political and economic event& and hasa contributidn to make to corporate strategy. The profileof executives who are likely to possessihis skill has be& id&iiied and may be used in developing this ability.
skills. The other skills were, ‘the ability to identify and anticipate business opportunities’ and ‘the ability to anticipate social, political and economic change’. The notion that anticipation is at the heart of business success now seems to be gaining more general acceptance.‘l
The Greek Connection Delphi is the outstanding example of attempts in the ancient world to forecast political and related events. Unfortunately, its reputation is shrouded in dispute. As one of the foremost centres of the ancient world, it was in all probability an important source of military, economic, political and social intelligence. The oracle appears to have combined the intuitive insights of the Pythia with the information obtained from emissaries who came from all over the known world. This combination of inductive and deductive skills probably resulted in the first holistic approach to forecasting.’ 0
A method of forecasting developed in the late sixties in the USA became known as the Delphi Method. Long Range Planning Vol. 27, No 6, pp. 58-68, 1994 Copyright 0 1994 Elsevier Science Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved 0024-6301/94 $7.00+.00
The climate of the 1990s has produced a remarkable change and has set the scene for the recognition of intuition as a key contributor to management success. In a recent issue of Long Range Planning, Ralph Stacey suggested that executives should consider decision making as ‘an exploratory, experimental process based on intuition and reasoning by analogy’.3 In early 1991, the author decided to build on the earlier work of ‘Profiling’ which had included anticipatory skills as a key element in managerial effectiveness.4 It was decided to test whether the use of an intuitive/holistic approach could provide a more effective alternative to forecasting social, political and economic trends than existing methods based on mathematical modelling. The success or failure of such methods depends on whether the events which comprise the laboratory model can be contained within a closed system; such as those used by mathematics and engineering technologies. Difficulties arise when the environment contains variables leading to changes which will modify the expected outcome. The early results were promising, as shown by the following example. The political analysts using the Bristol University computer predicted the results for the 1992 General Election. Gordon Reece, the University of Bristol’s Professor of Computing, said on 27 March 1992, ‘I’m advising everyone not to waste their money’ (betting on the election result). Professor Reece and his colleagues in the Engineering Mathematics Department forecast a Labour lead by 20 seats, 20 to the Liberal Democrats and 10 to the Nationalists. This would then prompt another election in the Autumn when Labour would secure a majority.5 The forecasts made by the author in the journal, Future Tense, were as follows: 0
go down
to a fourth
2. ‘The UK General Election would not take place until the latest possible date in the life of the current Parliament. Also, the Conservatives would have to go to the country without the assistance of “the feel good factor”.’ February 1992 Edition ‘The retention of many of the most unthinking aspects of the Thatcher years is
a clear
working
The intuitive approach on which these Future Tense forecasts were made clearly proved superior to the computer based model of Bristol University. Samuel Brittan’s comments on the Treasury record and that of the London Business School suggest that spending large sums of money on computer-based systems to forecast economic trends does little to improve results6 Indeed, the best record is achieved by the medium based companies who accept that their systems, limited in complexity and scope by cost, do not inhibit their own analysts from modifying the computer output in the light of their experience and their sense of what is happening.
Analysing the Russian Coup The methodology commences with the use of intuition to evaluate the likely outcome or significance of the event or situation selected for study. This means noting the feelings which are associated with the event. The way in which the process develops can best be illustrated by using a specific example ; namely, that of the failed Russian coup of 19-21 August 1991. The evaluation was undertaken for a major West German company. Early on the morning of the 19th, I received a telephone call from the client, a senior director. I was asked to advise on the likely success or otherwise of the Russian coup as the company was heavily exposed on the foreign exchange market. My immediate, first, intuitive feel was that the coup was unlikely to succeed. However, I asked for an hour to make an initial evaluation based on: o
March 1991 Edition:
1. ‘The Labour Party would General Election defeat.’
0
likely to cost the Conservatives majority at the General Election.’
an historical revolution,
comparison
with
the
1917/1919
R an assessment of the similarities, differences and the unique elements of the 1991 coup attempt compared with that of 191i’/1919, CI an analysis of the roles and personality the key players, 0
the nature of the current political Soviet Union and the West,
0
the impact of the social and economic stances on the likely success of the coup. Long Range Planning
Vol. 27
profiles
situation
of
in the circum-
December
1994
The Components The difficulty of analysing such a situation is that it is like watching and trying to predict how a cloud formation will change and reform, disappear and reappear. The intuitive sensing is followed by a multidisciplined analysis which includes analogical thinking and pattern recognition. Also included is an historical and psychological analysis of the players and the events.
The Historical Analysis An important factor in the ability to undertake such an analysis is a detached and objective frame of mind. The individual analyst’s perception of the desired result must be put on one side. The historical comparison revealed some interesting insights relative to the role of Leningrad (St Petersburg) compared with Moscow and that of the Soviet (Russian) armed forces. In 1917/1919 the mass desertions and breakdown of discipline in the Army and later in the Navy had clearly left a deep scar on the Soviet Armed forces. This was exemplified by Stalin’s purges of the High Command in the mid-1930s. It was clear that in 1991 the Army was loath to face a head-on armed clash with the Russian people if it seemed that they were against the coup leaders. The historical analysis confirmed that the role of Leningrad and not Moscow was a key factor in the 1917/1919 revolution. The historical evidence suggested that Leningrad would point the way. The events of the coup followed a traditional pattern, i.e. the seizure of communication centres, the use of disinformation, particularly with regard to the situation in Leningrad where it was claimed that the Mayor, a pro-reformist, had been arrested, the attempts to silence Boris Yeltsin and the holding of Gorbachev under house arrest. However, a study of the personalities of the conspirators revealed that in the words of the press they were all ‘grey men’. There was no Lenin, Trotsky or Stalin amongst them. The men of character who stood out were the imprisoned Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin. It was this initial analysis of the events of 1917/ 1919 compared with August 1991 that led me to telephone my German client an hour later to say that, ‘I believed the coup was unlikely to succeed despite the fact that it was following a conventional course’. I Intuition and Forecasting-A
Holistic Approach
indicated that Boris Yeltsin needed 24 hours to marshal1 support, particularly of Muscovites who were more passive than the Leningraders. An encouraging small piece of news to come later in the day was that the Mayor of Leningrad had negotiated a stand-off with the local military commander. This was contrary to the earlier disinformation and revealed the anxiety of the coup leaders about the role of Leningrad in determining events. On Tuesday, 20 August, the reluctance of the military to become seriously involved against the Muscovites and Boris Yeltsin was becoming apparent. The support of the elite Tamaya tank unit was of great symbolic importance to the Muscovites and indicated a possible split in the loyalty of the army. This must have been a deciding factor in the minds of the Soviet High Command, reviving past fears of a rank and file forces revolt. I informed my German client on the Tuesday evening that the events of the next 12 hours would be decisive. I believed (intuitively) that on the Wednesday morning the White House would still be standing and that Boris Yeltsin would be alive. On the Wednesday morning I was able to confirm my forecast and added that the Wednesday evening would see the conspirators flying to meet Gorbachev to make their peace. This would signal that the new climate of Perestroika was still alive despite the events of the last few days.
The Professionals The views follows :
expressed
by the professionals
were
as
Conor Cruise O’Brien, writing in The Times on 28 August 1991, admitted he was wrong about the Soviet Coup. He joined other experts, indeed most of the Western leaders and the press corps. Edward Fennell, Moscow, The Times, 27 August 1991: ‘Our Soviet Staff were convinced it was the end of glasnost, perestroika, and the end of us’. Edward Mortimer, Financial Times, 20 August 1991: ‘Back towards the Old World Order’. Anthony Bevin, Political Editor, The Independent, 21 August 1991: ‘Major sees no need for return of Gorbachev’. Chancellor Helmut Kohl on Monday 19 August 1991, sought a tacit agreement with the new regime.
0
President George Bush instinctively felt the crisis should not interfere with the improvement in EastWest relations. Only seventy hours after the coup did he finally declare against it.
This is only one of many instances where the conclusions of the Delphic method have run counter to the prevailing view of the experts. It has established a track record which demands attention. My West German client was able to make E~,Z~O,OOO on the foreign exchange market because the prevailing view of dealers worldwide was that the coup would be successful.
The Holistic Model The holistic model is based on a time, event and location analysis. The basic model is shown in Figure 1.
This three-dimensional model was initially developed to illustrate the use of the model in corporate strategy. In relation to the Soviet coup, the initial product or service should be redefined as the existing and proposed political systems represented by the Tzarist regime and the Communist Party in 1917/19. The reformist model proposed by Gorbachev should be compared with a return to the unreformed party system and in 1993 an attempt to block the Yeltsin measures for more radical change. The breakdown of the events shows the similarities, dissimilarities, the unique elements and the overall pattern of the three coups. It is this detailed analysis that must support or challenge the initial intuitive analysis.
Time The time dimension covers the past, present and future. In Figure 2, the past is represented by the 1917/19 Russian Revolution, the present by the August 1991 abortive coup and the future by the October 1993 coup against Yeltsin. The purpose of Figures 3 and 4 is to show how the time, event, and location analyses provide the data for forecasting.
Location The location
dimension
is designed
to show the key
centres or locations which are relevant to the passage of events. This is particularly important in terms of differences which may indicate a change in the focus of political power.
Events The event dimension is a detailed analysis of the activities associated with the past, present and future. Figure 4 shows the key elements associated with the 1917-1919 Russian Revolution, the 1991 abortive coup and the 1993 attempted coup against Yeltsin. The activities clearly show the similarities, differences and the unique elements in each situation. The diagrams used to illustrate the analysis of the Russian Coup in 1991 were followed by a forecast on 13 March 1993, that, ‘Boris Yeltsin would survive the Parliamentary challenge to his authority and would hold office until the next Presidential elections’. The analysis of the October 1993 abortive coup proved this statement correct. The analysis of the different events shows the similarities and differences between them and the complexity of the analysis that is involved, based on intuition, analogical reasoning and pattern recognition. The holistic approach shows how important it is to be able to identify the key factors which are likely to be critical to the outcome and to be able to do this consistently. The methodology that is used enables the degree of uncertainty surrounding political, economic and social events to be substantially reduced.
Application Failure
to Business
Success/
In 1981 the author was collecting material for a publication which included a chapter on Marketing, Public Relations and Corporate Image. The particular incident which attracted attention was one in which an engineer who was called as a witness in a court action stated that, in his opinion, a new Rolls Royce was unroadworthy and would not pass an MOT test.7 The reply of the Rolls’ representative to these criticisms was not unexpected; it was, ‘We produce a different motor car from those built by Japanese robots, excellent though they may be’. The author commented, ‘The difficulty with the Rolls image is that the combination of engineering Long Range Planning Vol. 27
December 1994
,I \
INITIAL PRODUCT/SERVICE I
EVENT DIMENSION
- PRESENT \
PRODUCT/SERVICE SPECIFICATION
EVENT DIMENSION-FUTURE
PRODUCT/SERVICE SPECIFICATION (FUTURE)
FIGURE1. The holistic model for forecasting.
Intuition and Forecasting-A
Holistic Approach
\
_\
.I.,,.I’,!;:, .“Y, I,,,, ~ ;,; ,_ ,_“,‘_ ., ,, ‘: :, : ,,:I: ‘, ::L :..;,I
.,
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;;:_>
:
:
_‘,:
:. .,,,,
_ji ,,,,I _,
,: :,.
,._
;,,
.’ .’ :.
PAST
,’
:*
THE 1917-1919
RUSSIAN
REVOLUTION
.I ‘j
.i:y, vi _li,:
PRESENT
THE 1991 ABORTIVE COUP
\
:‘, ,:,’ ,.,( ‘, ,, FUTURE
..: ;,: ,, ‘., ,’ :, ‘:,.:;: : :‘:.. >,:;,, .. ,_,‘.
THE 1993 ABORTIVE COUP AGAINST
YELTSIN
\ ,’ ,‘_ :
.,
,
: :,
:.
.’
:
FIGURE2.The time dimension. skills and hand-crafted work depends on a market which may now be too small to support the existing business. The need is to define an alternative, wider market, which will combine the quality image of the Rolls with the standards of precision achieved at a lower cost by robots’. The end of the story might be different if the Rolls Royce executives could bring themselves to consider projecting a two-tier corporate image in the market place. This two-tier image would comprise the existing market, with an expected gradual decline in volume, together with a Rolls Royce which combines the virtues of robotic engineering with the cost advantage this would give, and with the refinements of finish and interior trim which would put the new model clearly above ‘the top range of BMW, Jaguar and Mercedes’.’ The chapter concerned was appropriately entitled, ‘The End of the Road for Rolls Royce Motors ?’ On 5 September 1993, on page 8 of the Business Section of the Sunday Times, the following article appeared, ‘Rolls Royce Drives Back from the Brink, by Andrew Lorenz. The following are extracts from the articles9 ‘After two nightmarish years, Britain’s most famous luxury product is back from a near fatal crash’. ‘Quality
was inadequate and the level of warranty claims too high.’ ‘The business is all about delivering product and service. We were very poor at that’, Bernard Preston, Director of Quality. ‘Ward says one option (for the future] is to develop a new entry level Bentley below the present Brooklands, but above the E80,OOOprice level of the BMW 8 series and Mercedes 500/600SLs.' The analysis made by the author in 1983 using the holistic method anticipated in detail the solution proposed by Rolls in 1993. The forecast made in 1983 has taken 11 years to be recognized for its appropriateness. It is worth asking what the result would have been if the recommendations and forecast made by the author had been acted upon at the time.
Economic Forecasts Economic forecasts are prepared on a worldwide basis in the form of scenarios in the journal Future Tense. This can best be illustrated by taking the section on UK Economic Prospects for 1991, 1992, and 1993. The 1991 forecast summarized the prospects for the UK at the beginning of the year by saying that ‘the UK Long Range Planning Vol.27
December 1994
THE 1917-1919
PAST
RUSSIAN REVOLUTION
Key locations St. Petersburg and Moscow
\PRESENT
THE 1991 ABORTIVE COUP \ Key locations, Leningrad (St. Petersburg), Moscow and the industrial hinterland comprising the steel and coal complexes.
FUTURE
THE 1993 ABORTIVE COUP AGAINST YELTSIN \ Key locations, St. Petersburg (Leningrad), Moscow and the semi-autonomous regions of the CIS.
FIGURE 3. The location dimension.
1 downturn would be long and deep’. This was contrary to the view expressed by the Chancellor and the London Business School that ‘it would be short and shallow’. In the Midsummer 1991 issue of the journal it was stated ‘that the UK economy would not see an upturn until May/June 1992 and that when it arose it would be slow, patchy and faltering’. The 1993 forecast, made again at the beginning of the year, stated that ‘the UK recovery will be slow, steady but unspectacular’.
The Detailed Basic Economic Data The basic economic data includes a 12 month forecast for GDP, inflation, balance of payments and unemployIntuition and Forecasting-A
Holistic Approach
ment. Particular attention is paid to identifying changes in trend in advance of other institutions. The quality of the detailed forecasts compares well with that of other forecasters. Recipients of the journal include such institutions as The Treasury, The Chartered Institute of Bankers and the CBI.
The Special Situation Reports These have been a special feature of the work and have included, amongst others, the French Referendum, the American Presidential Election and the second Danish Referendum. All were made well in advance of the event and proved correct. Recently two special reports were commissioned by Anglian Water Plc, on Invest-
THE 1917-1919
RUSSIAN
REVOLUTION
The defeat and demoralization of the Russian army on the Western front. The loss of popular support for the Tsar. The economic privatisations caused by World War I. The high profile charismatic role of the revolutionaries, Lenin, Trotsky, etc. The key role of St. Petersburg, particularly the bombardment of the Winter Palace by the Navy. The Muscovites lagged behind the lead of St. Petersburg. The Western powers actively supported the Tsar and did all they could to encourage the White Russians against the Reds.
THE 1991 ABORTIVE COUP The loss of face of the military brought about by the withdrawal from Afghanistan. The uncertainty caused in the ranks of the Communist Party by the Gorbachev reforms. The economic dislocation and loss of priveliges for members of the Communist Party caused by the reforms. The failure of ‘Perestroika’ to produce immediate benefits for the mass of the Russian people. The unpopularity of Gorbachev at home despite worldwide acclaim abroad. Gorbachev imprisoned under house arrest. The initial outward signs of a succesful coup but the ‘grey men’ in practice acted in a confused and uncertain way. The role of the flamboyant, unstable but charismatic Boris Yeltsin. The key influence of the stand-off agreement between the Mayor of Leningrad and the local military commander. The failure to silence Boris Yeltsin in the first 24 hours and the time this gave him to obtain support from the miners and steel workers. The way in which the supporters of Yeltsin and untypically a large number of Muscovites gathered to defend the White House aided by the defectors from the crack Tamaya tank unit. The failure of the military to press home the attack designed to achieve control of the Moscow ring road. Western leaders initially prepared to make peace with the coup leaders and to do business with them.
THE 1993 ABORTIVE COUP AGAINST
YELTSIN
The ongoing conflict between the Russian Parliament and the Yeltsin reformers. The economic difficulties caused by the reform programme. The conspirators, apart from Rutskoi, were in the main discredited old Party hacks. The military response was an open question owing to the disaffection caused by the withdrawal of Russian forces from Eastern Europe, and by poor morale. Yeltsin made every effort to buy the support of the military just before the coup. Yeltsin still had significant popular support from his previous stand but it was fading. The military were clearly divided and indecisive until the last moment when they threw their weight behind Yeltsin and against Parliament. The Muscovites demonstrated their traditional passivity by the way in which they treated the seige of Parliament as a piece of theatre. The Western powers supported Yeltsin from the outset. The weakness of Yeltsin’s unstable personality was clearly shown in post-coup reports when it appeared that at a crucial moment he panicked.
FIGURE 4. The event dimension.
Long Range Planning
Vol. 27
December
1994
ment Prospects in East Germany, and on the Polish General Election and its likely impact on joint ventures.
The European Fighter Aircraft The author in 1987 wrote in a paper entitled, ‘Anticipatory Skills, A New Perspective’,” ‘that it was unlikely that the Star Wars programme would be able to meet its strategic objectives with the technology available by the year 2000’. As readers will know, this has proved accurate and resulted in a bill of f;20bn for the American taxpayer with little to show for the expenditure. In the Autumn of 1992 the writer considered that the Germans were quite correct in asking for a total review of the European Fighter Aircraft programme. Intensive pressure was put on them to draw back from their initial intention of withdrawing from the project. Cost estimates were revised but have again been the cause of anxiety in recent months. Evidence is now becoming available which suggests that it is highly unlikely that the European Fighter Aircraft will ever achieve full operational status.” The same error in assessing development prospects has been made that caused the cancellation of Star Wars. In the mid 19i’Os, working as a consultant in the defence industry, examining the causes for cost and time overruns and underperformance, it became clear that the most important factor was the pressure on the initiators of a project to overreach the limits of the available technology. The failure in every case was the non-identification of the cost (in time and resources) needed to go beyond the existing state of the art. If in any such project more than one key element exceeded the existing know-how, then the project was almost certain to result in a massive escalation of costs and time estimates with the required performance not being achieved. The latest evidence from the European Fighter Aircraft programme shows that the initial specification to design a stable flight capability with a nonaerodynamic shape is going beyond the existing technological know-how in terms of automatic flight control systems. The addition of problems with the
Intuition and Forecasting-A
Holistic Approach
electrical systems and the transmission indicates a series of interrelated issues which put a question mark over the whole project. Unfortunately, the costs already incurred (c32bn) make it difficult for those responsible to admit that the project was ill-conceived.
Executives Who Possess Anticipatory Skills The original ‘Profiles for Success’ programme identified three separate anticipatory skills. An article in The Personnel Manager’s Yearbook for 1990 indicated some of the characteristics shared by executives who possessed these abilities, for the purposes of executive selection and training in anticipatory skills.” This profile has now been extended and comprises the following characteristics which are usually associated with anticipatory skills (see Figure 5).
The Implications of this Work for Organizational Effectiveness The findings from this work have some very clear implications for organizational effectiveness. They are : The ability to anticipate the way future events are likely to unfold can mean earlier action to correct potential problems or to exploit opportunities. The facility to narrow down a number of alternative business scenarios to one preferred option at an earlier stage can do much to achieve an advantage over competitors. The skill in handling complex events should be approached in such a way that the elements of similarity, dissimilarity and uniqueness can be identified for their significance and impact on business decisions. This will enable a higher degree of certainty to be established with regard to the required end results. The ability to anticipate future events correctly has significant implications for the training and development of political commentators, diplomats, military leaders and of course, senior executives.
(a)
These executives wil tend to come from family backgrounds in which a strong maternal influence was in evidence. Very often this will mean that a mother or grandmother was known as someone who possessed a ‘sixth sense’. Very often the evidence will be anecdotal. In other cases specific instances of such insights will be remembered and quoted.
(b)
At a very early stage of their education they will tend to see different topics and subjects as related to each other in a holistic
way. They will tend to have a record of learning by seeing things as Gestalt who/es. Their learning process will tend to follow a series of insights rather than simple logical steps. (4
They are likely to score highly on pattern recognition or spatial tests.
(e)
The tendency to see things as wholes will lead to a reflective as we// as a practical outlook. They will show an almost equal measure of introvert and extrovert qualities. They will tend to have a high tolerance of stress, particularly in respect of ambiguity and uncertainty. They will tend to be individuals who form a framework of belief and action based on their own experience rather than taken from a particular sect or established belief system.
(h)
They will show an ability to move easily and comfortably between their own past, present and future. They will be able to relate this ability to the organization or function they lead.
(i)
This ability to move easily between their own past, present and future will, in many instances, lead to a fee/ for historical processes. This will enable them to understand the complex nature of social, political and economic events.
(j)
They will show in practice an ability to use inductive and deductive ski//s as appropriate. Depending upon the depth of their experience they will to a varying degree have made explicit to themselves an understanding of the nature of their own abilities.
FIGURE!5 The qualities likely to be assaciated with potential or actual anticipatory
skills.
Long Range Planning
Vol. 27
December
1994
References 1. Anticipation is the Name of the Game, European ManagementJournal, the Financial Times, 13/g/89.
reported by Michael Skapinker in
2. Histoire de la Divination dans I’Antiquite, Tome Troisieme Oracle de Delphos. Les Sacerdocesand Methodes de /‘Oracle Apollien, pp. 75-207, Bouche Leclerq, Paris (1880).
Les
3. Ralph Stacey, Strategy as Order Emerging from Chaos, LongRange Planning, 26 (1) 1 O-17 (1993). 4. Hugh Marlow, Profiling for Success, 23rd International Human Resource Management Conference, 3-5
April, MCE Barcelona (1991). 5. Lin Jenkins, Computer Predicts a Labour Majority, Times, 27/2/92,
p. 11 (1992).
6. Samuel Brittan, Longer recession here after all, Economic Viewpoint, Financial Times, 19/l 2/91 (1991). 7. f 50,000 Rolls Unsafe, Daily Telegraph, 17/l O/81, p.2 (1881). 8. Hugh Marlow, The End of the Road for Rolls-Royce Motors?, Success. Individual, Corporate andNational, IPM (1984). 9. Andrew Lorenz, Rolls-Royce Drives Backfromthe Brink,Sunday TimesBusinessSection,
5/9/93
(1993).
10. Anticipatory Skills, A New Perspective, A paper prepared for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, June (1989). 11. New Row as Germans Attack Eurofighter, Sunday Times, Business, 1 O/l O/93 (1993). 12. Hugh Marlow, Executive Selection for the 90s Organisation, Personnel Manager’s Yearbook 1990 (1990).
Intuition and Forecasting-A
Holistic Approach