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Invisible empires
function are given in some chemical and petroleum firms and compared to other industrial sectors, but though often interesting, the results are not entirely conclusive. An often-mentioned problem is to know the influence of the firm's size on technological innovation. The cases studied show that there are instances where a minimum size is required from the innovating firm because of the high investment needed*. This minimum size has been increasing since World War II, but these results cannot be generalized. A simple model can explain most of these differences in industry and time. It is also possible m certain cases to use a model to estimate the effect of a proposed change in market structure on the average time elapsed before the application of an invention made outside an industry branch. The author comes then to the diffusion of innovation and the time-lag between invention and innovation. Concrete examples are given in some industries, and particularly the steel and the petroleum industries. In these sectors the periods of the business cycle seemed to have more influence on process innovations than on product innovations, and a model was tried describing the investment behaviour. Innovating firms also showed a considerable increase in their growth rate compared to that of noninnovating firms. The rate of innovation which plays an important role in the diffusion of innovation can be explained by a simple model in most cases. For a firm, the speed of response to innovation has a tendency to be inversely related to its size and the expected profitability of the investment. Large firms, though generally quicker than the small ones, are not necessarily more progressive, and no significant correlation was found between the time-lag and the main parameters of the firm. Thus no real technical leadership appears in the branches covered. The rate of internal diffusion of an innovation within a firm is also examined. This is illustrated by examples taken from the railway industry. A simple model is derived from this example and is expected to apply also to a wide range of innovations. There is much similarity between intrafirm and interfirm diffusion processes. The firm size seems more influential than the effect of profitability, but
* This is a part of the threshold theory which is not further developed in this book. Ind. Mark. Manage., 1 (1971)
both of them will contribute to rank the firm among leaders or followers. This book is thus primarily the result of practical experience and basic research in case studies. Several models given are of a simple structure and stand up relatively well, but according to the author himself, they should be used with great care. One should also bear in mind that many conclusions are based on the findings of studies conducted in a limited number of American industrial sectors and that all figures and examples refer to periods prior to 1963. Therefore some recent technological developments and changes in industrial and economic structures are not taken into consideration. In spite of these restrictions, this book can be a useful tool for quantitative analysis as a starting point for additional research. J. E. LEBOUT
TURNER, Louis (1970). Invisible Empires. London, Hamish Hamilton. Louis Turner, Secretary of S.A.I.N.T. (Salzburg Assembly: Impact of the New Technology), is a nonradical sociologist actively concerned with prognosis of the future. His book is offered as a guide to "the knowledgeable layman who wants to know about world problems created by a new kind of firm, the multinational". He has not written an attack on the American-owned international companies, in the style of Jean-Jacques ServanSchreiber. The presentation is a balanced thesis and antithesis on multinationals created by all nations. During industrial marketing, planning or technological forecasting exercises, readers of this journal could become: (1) involved in what Turner describes as "The Poker Game; Multinationals versus Governments"; (2) interested in the use of procedures, pioneered by multinationals; to assist countries in the developing world; (3) concerned with advantages possessed by multinationals in financial matters; (4) awakened to the fallibility of multinationals; etc. I f so, the book contains salutary reading in easily digested anecdotal form. Moreover, the prose is not devoid of humour; one anecdote deals with failure of a sales campaign for carbolic scented s o a p - - a particular national sector of consumers associated the smell with brothels! Long-range planners wanting a "back cloth" scenario against which they can project their own 123
specialist prognostications will no doubt find Chapters VI and X of greatest interest. These chapters deal, respectively, with trade union response to the changing nature of large multinationals, and the future of the multinational. On the former topic the author reveals more than possible trends because he has studied the problem carefully for the Fabian Society--through which he has the option of generating "moderately left of centre" action. Discussion on the latter topic "attempts to widen the debate from the negative one of "how do we fight off foreign companies?" to the positive examination of what is likely to happen in the future if we pursue current policies". It is not often that literature of undoubted professional interest is lucidly written, without tedious technicalities, and is sufficiently entertaining for bedtime reading. Invisible Empires is such a book; I recommend it to you. R. D. MEDFORD WILLS G., ASI-ITON, D. and TAYLOR, B., Eds. (1969). Technological Forecasting and Corporate Strategy. London: Bradford University Press in association with Crosby Lockwood and Son Ltd. A presentation in one art form cannot be easily transferred into another without loss of quality. So it is with conferences: Although the meeting may be a great success, the proceedings are often turgid and lacking in character. The organisers of the 1968 Conference on Technological Forecasting at the University of Bradford have not fallen into this trap. This book which is essentially the report of that conference, has been carefully edited to produce a textbook of unique character which will be a reference for both students and planners. The conference, which was sponsored by the British Ministry of Technology and the Times, was a national conference and much of the statistical data used is British. Nevertheless the contributers include several of nationalities other than British, and the subject of technological forecasting cannot be confined within national borders. The book is therefore of international interest. The first part of the book deals with the practice and management aspects of technological forecasting and corporate planning. The introductory chapter by G. Wills outlines the methods of technological forecasting. The next two chapters by E. Jantsch and J. C. Hetrick examine the interaction between corporate planning and the methods 124
of technological forecasting in greater detail, the former emphasising relevance trees and the latter matrices. The following chapter by J. B. Quinn deals with technological forecasting and corporate planning in the private sector of industry. Professor Quinn offers some interesting examples of strategic planning in the U.S.A. The chapter by C. M. G. Beattie and J. C. Frazer is a thought-provoking one for marketing men, for they forecast that marketing research will be increasingly confined to short-term plans, and technological forecasting will dominate longer range planning. They suggest that the marketplace will be less important as a source of strategic decision in future. One of the editors, Professor Wills, has developed this theme further elsewhere. The chapter by J. Bray is particularly interesting to British readers, containing as it does much interesting data on the British economy. Jeremy Bray's thesis that the root cause of industrial malaise in Britain is to be attributed to overmanning in industry is clearly one of the sources of his disagreements with his exgovernment colleagues. His examination of the interaction between planning in the public and private sectors is interesting. In Section II, the "Futures" for individual industries are presented. W. F. Watson presents a concise review of the growth of use of polymers in the U.K., with an examination of the factors which will influence growth in future. The critic who hails from the plastics industry would agree entirely with Dr. Watson's views that the greatest factor in influencing the future uses of plastics is a greater degree of "technology transfer" to the engineering industry. A. J. Kennedy examines market growths and cost trends for a wide range of metals in order to assess the relative potentials of the different metals in their various fabricated forms. T. M. Fry's chapter on energy is a masterly review of the contributions different energy sources have made in the U.K. in the past and what are the future trends. The needs to link forecast with investment decision is particularly apparent here. A. Hitchcock gives an excellent review of methods in use to analyse traffic movement by the mathematical treatments associated with modal split. Forecasting in this field, he suggests, is now virtually an industry. D. L. Thomas deals with the methods of planning research in a major telecommunications company, and this chapter overlaps with that by P. D. Hall
1rid. Mark. Manage., 1 (1971)
* This is a part of the threshold theory which is not further developed in this book. Ind. Mark. Manage., 1 (1971)
both of them will contribute to rank the firm among leaders or followers. This book is thus primarily the result of practical experience and basic research in case studies. Several models given are of a simple structure and stand up relatively well, but according to the author himself, they should be used with great care. One should also bear in mind that many conclusions are based on the findings of studies conducted in a limited number of American industrial sectors and that all figures and examples refer to periods prior to 1963. Therefore some recent technological developments and changes in industrial and economic structures are not taken into consideration. In spite of these restrictions, this book can be a useful tool for quantitative analysis as a starting point for additional research. J. E. LEBOUT
TURNER, Louis (1970). Invisible Empires. London, Hamish Hamilton. Louis Turner, Secretary of S.A.I.N.T. (Salzburg Assembly: Impact of the New Technology), is a nonradical sociologist actively concerned with prognosis of the future. His book is offered as a guide to "the knowledgeable layman who wants to know about world problems created by a new kind of firm, the multinational". He has not written an attack on the American-owned international companies, in the style of Jean-Jacques ServanSchreiber. The presentation is a balanced thesis and antithesis on multinationals created by all nations. During industrial marketing, planning or technological forecasting exercises, readers of this journal could become: (1) involved in what Turner describes as "The Poker Game; Multinationals versus Governments"; (2) interested in the use of procedures, pioneered by multinationals; to assist countries in the developing world; (3) concerned with advantages possessed by multinationals in financial matters; (4) awakened to the fallibility of multinationals; etc. I f so, the book contains salutary reading in easily digested anecdotal form. Moreover, the prose is not devoid of humour; one anecdote deals with failure of a sales campaign for carbolic scented s o a p - - a particular national sector of consumers associated the smell with brothels! Long-range planners wanting a "back cloth" scenario against which they can project their own 123
specialist prognostications will no doubt find Chapters VI and X of greatest interest. These chapters deal, respectively, with trade union response to the changing nature of large multinationals, and the future of the multinational. On the former topic the author reveals more than possible trends because he has studied the problem carefully for the Fabian Society--through which he has the option of generating "moderately left of centre" action. Discussion on the latter topic "attempts to widen the debate from the negative one of "how do we fight off foreign companies?" to the positive examination of what is likely to happen in the future if we pursue current policies". It is not often that literature of undoubted professional interest is lucidly written, without tedious technicalities, and is sufficiently entertaining for bedtime reading. Invisible Empires is such a book; I recommend it to you. R. D. MEDFORD WILLS G., ASI-ITON, D. and TAYLOR, B., Eds. (1969). Technological Forecasting and Corporate Strategy. London: Bradford University Press in association with Crosby Lockwood and Son Ltd. A presentation in one art form cannot be easily transferred into another without loss of quality. So it is with conferences: Although the meeting may be a great success, the proceedings are often turgid and lacking in character. The organisers of the 1968 Conference on Technological Forecasting at the University of Bradford have not fallen into this trap. This book which is essentially the report of that conference, has been carefully edited to produce a textbook of unique character which will be a reference for both students and planners. The conference, which was sponsored by the British Ministry of Technology and the Times, was a national conference and much of the statistical data used is British. Nevertheless the contributers include several of nationalities other than British, and the subject of technological forecasting cannot be confined within national borders. The book is therefore of international interest. The first part of the book deals with the practice and management aspects of technological forecasting and corporate planning. The introductory chapter by G. Wills outlines the methods of technological forecasting. The next two chapters by E. Jantsch and J. C. Hetrick examine the interaction between corporate planning and the methods 124
of technological forecasting in greater detail, the former emphasising relevance trees and the latter matrices. The following chapter by J. B. Quinn deals with technological forecasting and corporate planning in the private sector of industry. Professor Quinn offers some interesting examples of strategic planning in the U.S.A. The chapter by C. M. G. Beattie and J. C. Frazer is a thought-provoking one for marketing men, for they forecast that marketing research will be increasingly confined to short-term plans, and technological forecasting will dominate longer range planning. They suggest that the marketplace will be less important as a source of strategic decision in future. One of the editors, Professor Wills, has developed this theme further elsewhere. The chapter by J. Bray is particularly interesting to British readers, containing as it does much interesting data on the British economy. Jeremy Bray's thesis that the root cause of industrial malaise in Britain is to be attributed to overmanning in industry is clearly one of the sources of his disagreements with his exgovernment colleagues. His examination of the interaction between planning in the public and private sectors is interesting. In Section II, the "Futures" for individual industries are presented. W. F. Watson presents a concise review of the growth of use of polymers in the U.K., with an examination of the factors which will influence growth in future. The critic who hails from the plastics industry would agree entirely with Dr. Watson's views that the greatest factor in influencing the future uses of plastics is a greater degree of "technology transfer" to the engineering industry. A. J. Kennedy examines market growths and cost trends for a wide range of metals in order to assess the relative potentials of the different metals in their various fabricated forms. T. M. Fry's chapter on energy is a masterly review of the contributions different energy sources have made in the U.K. in the past and what are the future trends. The needs to link forecast with investment decision is particularly apparent here. A. Hitchcock gives an excellent review of methods in use to analyse traffic movement by the mathematical treatments associated with modal split. Forecasting in this field, he suggests, is now virtually an industry. D. L. Thomas deals with the methods of planning research in a major telecommunications company, and this chapter overlaps with that by P. D. Hall
1rid. Mark. Manage., 1 (1971)