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Japan-U.S. relations in the changing world
Japan and the World Economy 3 (1991) 215-220 North-Holland
215
Japan-U.S. relations in the changing world * Yoshio Okawara January 1991
1. The world today is undergoing unprecedented changes which inevitably require a new international order befitting the coming century. As symbolically shown by the collapse of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, the political foundation of central Europe underwent drastic changes. With the unification of two Germanies on October 3, 1990, the Treaty of Neighborly Friendship and Cooperation was concluded between Germany and the Soviet Union on the first anniversary of the downfall of the Wall, which agreed to the pullout of 360,000 Soviet troops who stationed in the former East Germany. In the course of the termination of the cold war, the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe altered their policies to shift to a political system based on plural values and an economic system based on market principles. However, the Soviet Union and the countries in Eastern Europe are finding it highly difficult to shake themselves free from many years of evil practices under the Socialist command economy, and they are saddled, in varying degrees, with economic difficulties and resulting political instability. In the process, the Warshaw Pact organization has been in effect dissolved and the COMECON system has virtually lost its functions. With the economic integration scheduled for 1992, the EC will be paving the way to monetary union which might lead to some form of political unification further ahead. NATO is discarding its military hallmark of the cold war era, while the CSCE (Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe) is expected to play a greater role in dealing with the problems of the entire Europe. Yet NATO will continue to play its part, in a less military way, in * The Journal will publish lectures and short papers by renowned administrators, statesmen and scholars who have influenced economic policy. This paper is one of those series of policy papers. 0922-1425/91/$3.50
0 1991 - Elsevier Science Publishers B.V. All rights reserved
216
Y. Okawara
/ Japan- U.S. relations in the changing world
coping with a powerful unified Germany and maintaining relations with the Soviet Union which advocates a ‘common European home’. In these European circumstances, the United States will be required to remain a major player in handling European issues. In the new currents of multipolarity and globalism, Japan, with the support of its strong economy, is required to play a more active role than before. The international order expected to emerge from such structural changes will require major countries of the world -- Japan, the United States and European countries -- to share responsibility and burden for maintaining the peace and welfare of all nations including those under different political systems. 2. The end of the cold war and an easing of East-West armed confrontation do not necessarily ensure peace and stability in all parts of the world. Our way ahead is full of uncertainties and unpredictables. The trend of dissolution of ideological confrontation and the move toward disarmament are not sufficient to ensure peace. To realize real peace, it is important to maintain defense efforts to secure one’s own security and then make untiring diplomatic efforts to remove factors of political confrontation, one by one, which cause conflicts, and to build up the framework for international cooperation based on interdependence. While we are observing dramatic changes in such ways as termination of cold war and the accelerating democratization and liberalization, factors of conflict which were overshadowed by military confrontation between the two superpowers are now coming to the surface, as are seen within the Soviet republics like the Baltic States and in Eastern Europe. As a result, nationalistic conflicts are feared to break out from time to time over religious, ethnic and territorial problems. 3. The recent Gulf crisis has occurred in the transitive period in such structural changes, or because of vacuums created in the transitive period. Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait has brought home to us the following three points. First, in a world full of uncertainties and unpredictables, the nation’s security cannot be secured without retaining the minimum level of military deterrent. Second, only the United States has the global capability and will to prevent violent invasions and maintain world peace and order. Third, as a result of basic recognition of structural changes in the world order held by the permanent members of the Security Council of the United Nations, there have been unprecedented expectations for an effective functioning of the U.N. to achieve its purposes proclaimed in its Charter. Japan has decided to provide 4 billion dollars for the purpose of contributing to the recovery of peace and order in the Gulf, and is hastening to reach
Y. Okawara / Japan- U.S. relations in the changing world
217
a domestic consensus on cooperation with the United Nations for its peace keeping efforts. This is how Japan is performing its responsibilities as required in the international society and supporting American leadership. However, I have to mention here that the Japanese government’s action so far has revealed basic problems including an insufficiency in the crisis management system and delay in decision making. On the other hand, even though the position of the U.S. in the face of the Gulf crisis should be fully appreciated and supported, the way in which American ‘demand’ for ‘role sharing’ on Japan over the Gulf crisis was put forward appears to have been less considerate to the Japanese situations. The two countries should develop effective measures to take on the basis of proper mutual understanding of domestic situations with regard to the should be shared’. old and ever-lasting question of ‘how responsibilities Otherwise, the way to cope with the Gulf crisis, together with the crisis over the Uruguay Round talks of the GATT, might put Japan-U.S. partnership open to question. 4. As advanced democracies with their combined GNP accounting for 40% of the world total, Japan and the United States are in a position to share responsibilities, together with Europe, for peace and stability of the world. The ‘global partnership’ between Japan and the United States is based on this perception. Among others, from their respective national interests, the two nations inevitably share particular interest and responsibility in the AsiaPacific region. Benefitting from the economic prosperity of the two nations, this region has achieved one of the world’s most remarkable economic developments and its economic dynamism has attracted global attention in recent times. On the political front, the Asia-Pacific region has appeared until recently to distance itself from the vehement changes in the international situations that are evolving in Europe. However, relations between the countries in this region which remained fixed during the postwar years have become fluid, triggered by such recent developments as rapprochement of Sino-Russian relations, normalization of the Republic of Korea-USSR relations, mutual establishment of trade offices in ROK and China, signs of improvement of Japan-North Korea relations, China’s normalization of its relations with Indonesia and Singapore and steps being taken toward the solution of the Cambodian issue. Political dynamism thus created is causing crustal movements, side by side with economic dynamism, to this region. A major challenge to the Japan-U.S. global partnership is to ensure that such structural change will head toward nurturing of a stable and lasting order of the region. 5. What sustains this positive Japan-U.S. role in the Asia-Pacific of course the bilateral security arrangement. This system ensures
region is effective
218
Y. Okawara
/ Japan-U.S.
relations in the changing world
deterrent essential for Japan and assures Japan’s security, while it serves as a core for the United States to maintain its presence in this region. If this security arrangement undergoes radical changes, or, in an extreme case, is dissolved, the U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific region will be greatly affected, and this will inevitably impair the U.S. political influence. In consequence, Japan will have growing say on the strength of its economic clout, only to meet antagonism from the countries in the region, which may shake the stability in this part of the world. In this region, only the U.S. forces have the capability and power as a deterrent against military tension. If any other country within the region attempts to exercise power beyond its own territory, then the attempt will instantly arouse suspicion and resistance among its neighbors as a move to seek regional hegemony. This reminds us sharply of what an important role the U.S. presence plays as a stabilizing factor in this region. What sustains this setup are in effect the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, and the facilities and areas as well as stable and quality service by Japan to the U.S. forces provided under the Treaty. At the same time, the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty helps amplify international confidence in Japan for its basic national commitment not to be a military power, and prompts Japan’s neighbors to accept its greater political and economic role. Recently in some part of Asia we heard an argument of the ‘Economic Pax Nipponica’, a concept arising from Japan’s economic power. This concept is not viable unless it is based on the close Japan-U.S. relations and the U.S. presence. In discussing the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, we must keep in mind that it has added present-day implications not only of providing the basic framework of the stability and development of the Asia-Pacific region, but also of playing the role as the base for productive dialogue with the Soviet Union under the unfolding new situation. The scheduled visit to Japan by Soviet President M&hail Gorbachev is expected to bring a new turning point in Japan’s relations with the Soviets, but its evolvement will be possible only on the basis of a firm Japan-U.S. relationship. The more drastic the changes are and the more uncertain the future outlook of the international situation is, the greater role as the mainstay of the Japan-U.S. relations must be played by the security arrangements which have those multiple functions. Japan and the United States should spare no efforts necessary to effectively maintain this system. Indeed, as part of the efforts, the Japanese government has decided to bear a half of the expense of the U.S. forces stationed in Japan under the Status of Forces Agreement and its complementary special agreement in five years. From the long-range perspective, Japan and the United States should also examine the basic framework for security in Northeast Asia in anticipation of the possible unification of North and South Koreas.
Y. Okawara / Japan- U.S. relations in the changing world
219
In his speech made at Vladivostok in September 1990, the then Soviet Foreign Minister Edward Shevardnadze called for a meeting of foreign ministers from all Asian countries at Vladivostok in the fall of 1993 and the establishment of a cooperative mechanism in the Asia-Pacific region. The proposition had been preceded by proposals by Australia and Canada for security talks in the region. Keeping these moves in mind, Japan and the United States should consider to take initiative in working out some framework for Northeast Asia within the overall consideration of the Asia-Pacific security situations. 6. The endeavors to build up a firmer Japan-U.S. relationship are not only important for the two countries, but also essential for the Asia-Pacific region and for global construction of the international order. With its economic clout, Japan is now a partner of unprecedented importance for the United States. Fortunately, the basis of Japan-U.S. cooperation is firm, but its underlying security relations have been suffering from new tensions caused by the persistent bilateral trade imbalance, the gradual worsening of American feeling toward Japan as exemplified by the emergence of revisionists in contrast to the abating fear of the Soviet threat, and the criticism of Japan’s slow action for the Gulf crisis. In the circumstances we should keep in mind the global implications of the Japan-U.S. relations and make renewed efforts to reinforce this important alliance relationship which forms the basis of Japan’s diplomacy. More specifically, our efforts should focus on the following four areas. First, a substantial amount of trade imbalance is feared to remain between Japan and the U.S. in the years ahead. Economic frictions in terms of technology and investment will emerge, shaking the bilateral relations from time to time. Although economic restructuring in Japan proceeds in line with the recent agreement on the Japan-U.S. Structural Impediments Initiative talks, not much improvement of the situation can be expected without prompt recovery and improvement of U.S. competitiveness. Any protectionist attempts such as managed trade should be blocked at any cost. Both sides should make utmost efforts to solve problems through rational and practical talks and by not allowing economic problems arising from these imbalances to develop into serious political issues. Destablizing the economic relations between the two countries will not only greatly affect their economies but also have a major impact on the stable development of the world economy, including developing economies. For the immediate future concerted bilateral cooperation should be focussed on ensuring a successful Uruguay Round of the GATT. The Uruguay Round was deadlocked at the ministerial talks in December 1990 over the agricultural issue, and the time is running out quickly. Failure of the talks will strike a heavy blow at the GATT’s free trade system, and in
220
Y. Oknwara
/ Japan- U.S. relations in the changing world
consequence, the world economy might well be subject to the risk of regionalism, bilateralism or unilateralism. The political will to succeed is strongly called for. Second, dialogue and exchanges on all levels of the two peoples should be encouraged. Utmost efforts should be made to root out the deep mutual mistrust arising from the perception gap which has been pointed out for some time. Despite all kinds of reports on ‘Japan bashing’ which tend to occupy our attention, we must remember that there are strong American interests in Japan and genuine goodwill toward Japan at the grassroots level. In promoting mutual understanding between Japan and the U.S., we must refrain from emotional reaction to hot discussions about Japan in the U.S. and vice versa. We must keep in mind the possibility of a clash of nationalism triggered by emotional antagonism that may be aroused if both sides lose their rational self-restraint in the face of criticism exchanged through mass media. The two nations should never take the other side for granted. Third, we must put a Japan-U.S. global partnership into practice and achieve bilateral cooperation in concrete terms. Our common challenge today is to help establish political freedom and market economy and build up peace and prosperity of the world, with particular emphasis on the Asia-Pacific region, which is to serve as the main arena of our global partnership for the reason of geographical proximity. The key to the success of this challenge is the economic power, financial resources and technological prowess shared by the two nations. We should be carefully watching and ready to cope positively with the developments of many regional cooperation moves. Fourth, in the sweeping wave of globalization, both Japan and the United States should mobilize their knowledge, experience and financial resources for cooperation in the areas of global concern such as the earth’s warming and other environmental issues. Economic cooperation to ensure social stability and better lives in developing countries is certainly a big task to be jointly undertaken by the two. Cooperative relations, if promoted from these wide perspectives, will help further the bilateral relations where attention often times tends to focus on competition rather than on cooperation. No other time in our history calls for more cooperation between our two nations than now.
215
Japan-U.S. relations in the changing world * Yoshio Okawara January 1991
1. The world today is undergoing unprecedented changes which inevitably require a new international order befitting the coming century. As symbolically shown by the collapse of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, the political foundation of central Europe underwent drastic changes. With the unification of two Germanies on October 3, 1990, the Treaty of Neighborly Friendship and Cooperation was concluded between Germany and the Soviet Union on the first anniversary of the downfall of the Wall, which agreed to the pullout of 360,000 Soviet troops who stationed in the former East Germany. In the course of the termination of the cold war, the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe altered their policies to shift to a political system based on plural values and an economic system based on market principles. However, the Soviet Union and the countries in Eastern Europe are finding it highly difficult to shake themselves free from many years of evil practices under the Socialist command economy, and they are saddled, in varying degrees, with economic difficulties and resulting political instability. In the process, the Warshaw Pact organization has been in effect dissolved and the COMECON system has virtually lost its functions. With the economic integration scheduled for 1992, the EC will be paving the way to monetary union which might lead to some form of political unification further ahead. NATO is discarding its military hallmark of the cold war era, while the CSCE (Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe) is expected to play a greater role in dealing with the problems of the entire Europe. Yet NATO will continue to play its part, in a less military way, in * The Journal will publish lectures and short papers by renowned administrators, statesmen and scholars who have influenced economic policy. This paper is one of those series of policy papers. 0922-1425/91/$3.50
0 1991 - Elsevier Science Publishers B.V. All rights reserved
216
Y. Okawara
/ Japan- U.S. relations in the changing world
coping with a powerful unified Germany and maintaining relations with the Soviet Union which advocates a ‘common European home’. In these European circumstances, the United States will be required to remain a major player in handling European issues. In the new currents of multipolarity and globalism, Japan, with the support of its strong economy, is required to play a more active role than before. The international order expected to emerge from such structural changes will require major countries of the world -- Japan, the United States and European countries -- to share responsibility and burden for maintaining the peace and welfare of all nations including those under different political systems. 2. The end of the cold war and an easing of East-West armed confrontation do not necessarily ensure peace and stability in all parts of the world. Our way ahead is full of uncertainties and unpredictables. The trend of dissolution of ideological confrontation and the move toward disarmament are not sufficient to ensure peace. To realize real peace, it is important to maintain defense efforts to secure one’s own security and then make untiring diplomatic efforts to remove factors of political confrontation, one by one, which cause conflicts, and to build up the framework for international cooperation based on interdependence. While we are observing dramatic changes in such ways as termination of cold war and the accelerating democratization and liberalization, factors of conflict which were overshadowed by military confrontation between the two superpowers are now coming to the surface, as are seen within the Soviet republics like the Baltic States and in Eastern Europe. As a result, nationalistic conflicts are feared to break out from time to time over religious, ethnic and territorial problems. 3. The recent Gulf crisis has occurred in the transitive period in such structural changes, or because of vacuums created in the transitive period. Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait has brought home to us the following three points. First, in a world full of uncertainties and unpredictables, the nation’s security cannot be secured without retaining the minimum level of military deterrent. Second, only the United States has the global capability and will to prevent violent invasions and maintain world peace and order. Third, as a result of basic recognition of structural changes in the world order held by the permanent members of the Security Council of the United Nations, there have been unprecedented expectations for an effective functioning of the U.N. to achieve its purposes proclaimed in its Charter. Japan has decided to provide 4 billion dollars for the purpose of contributing to the recovery of peace and order in the Gulf, and is hastening to reach
Y. Okawara / Japan- U.S. relations in the changing world
217
a domestic consensus on cooperation with the United Nations for its peace keeping efforts. This is how Japan is performing its responsibilities as required in the international society and supporting American leadership. However, I have to mention here that the Japanese government’s action so far has revealed basic problems including an insufficiency in the crisis management system and delay in decision making. On the other hand, even though the position of the U.S. in the face of the Gulf crisis should be fully appreciated and supported, the way in which American ‘demand’ for ‘role sharing’ on Japan over the Gulf crisis was put forward appears to have been less considerate to the Japanese situations. The two countries should develop effective measures to take on the basis of proper mutual understanding of domestic situations with regard to the should be shared’. old and ever-lasting question of ‘how responsibilities Otherwise, the way to cope with the Gulf crisis, together with the crisis over the Uruguay Round talks of the GATT, might put Japan-U.S. partnership open to question. 4. As advanced democracies with their combined GNP accounting for 40% of the world total, Japan and the United States are in a position to share responsibilities, together with Europe, for peace and stability of the world. The ‘global partnership’ between Japan and the United States is based on this perception. Among others, from their respective national interests, the two nations inevitably share particular interest and responsibility in the AsiaPacific region. Benefitting from the economic prosperity of the two nations, this region has achieved one of the world’s most remarkable economic developments and its economic dynamism has attracted global attention in recent times. On the political front, the Asia-Pacific region has appeared until recently to distance itself from the vehement changes in the international situations that are evolving in Europe. However, relations between the countries in this region which remained fixed during the postwar years have become fluid, triggered by such recent developments as rapprochement of Sino-Russian relations, normalization of the Republic of Korea-USSR relations, mutual establishment of trade offices in ROK and China, signs of improvement of Japan-North Korea relations, China’s normalization of its relations with Indonesia and Singapore and steps being taken toward the solution of the Cambodian issue. Political dynamism thus created is causing crustal movements, side by side with economic dynamism, to this region. A major challenge to the Japan-U.S. global partnership is to ensure that such structural change will head toward nurturing of a stable and lasting order of the region. 5. What sustains this positive Japan-U.S. role in the Asia-Pacific of course the bilateral security arrangement. This system ensures
region is effective
218
Y. Okawara
/ Japan-U.S.
relations in the changing world
deterrent essential for Japan and assures Japan’s security, while it serves as a core for the United States to maintain its presence in this region. If this security arrangement undergoes radical changes, or, in an extreme case, is dissolved, the U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific region will be greatly affected, and this will inevitably impair the U.S. political influence. In consequence, Japan will have growing say on the strength of its economic clout, only to meet antagonism from the countries in the region, which may shake the stability in this part of the world. In this region, only the U.S. forces have the capability and power as a deterrent against military tension. If any other country within the region attempts to exercise power beyond its own territory, then the attempt will instantly arouse suspicion and resistance among its neighbors as a move to seek regional hegemony. This reminds us sharply of what an important role the U.S. presence plays as a stabilizing factor in this region. What sustains this setup are in effect the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, and the facilities and areas as well as stable and quality service by Japan to the U.S. forces provided under the Treaty. At the same time, the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty helps amplify international confidence in Japan for its basic national commitment not to be a military power, and prompts Japan’s neighbors to accept its greater political and economic role. Recently in some part of Asia we heard an argument of the ‘Economic Pax Nipponica’, a concept arising from Japan’s economic power. This concept is not viable unless it is based on the close Japan-U.S. relations and the U.S. presence. In discussing the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, we must keep in mind that it has added present-day implications not only of providing the basic framework of the stability and development of the Asia-Pacific region, but also of playing the role as the base for productive dialogue with the Soviet Union under the unfolding new situation. The scheduled visit to Japan by Soviet President M&hail Gorbachev is expected to bring a new turning point in Japan’s relations with the Soviets, but its evolvement will be possible only on the basis of a firm Japan-U.S. relationship. The more drastic the changes are and the more uncertain the future outlook of the international situation is, the greater role as the mainstay of the Japan-U.S. relations must be played by the security arrangements which have those multiple functions. Japan and the United States should spare no efforts necessary to effectively maintain this system. Indeed, as part of the efforts, the Japanese government has decided to bear a half of the expense of the U.S. forces stationed in Japan under the Status of Forces Agreement and its complementary special agreement in five years. From the long-range perspective, Japan and the United States should also examine the basic framework for security in Northeast Asia in anticipation of the possible unification of North and South Koreas.
Y. Okawara / Japan- U.S. relations in the changing world
219
In his speech made at Vladivostok in September 1990, the then Soviet Foreign Minister Edward Shevardnadze called for a meeting of foreign ministers from all Asian countries at Vladivostok in the fall of 1993 and the establishment of a cooperative mechanism in the Asia-Pacific region. The proposition had been preceded by proposals by Australia and Canada for security talks in the region. Keeping these moves in mind, Japan and the United States should consider to take initiative in working out some framework for Northeast Asia within the overall consideration of the Asia-Pacific security situations. 6. The endeavors to build up a firmer Japan-U.S. relationship are not only important for the two countries, but also essential for the Asia-Pacific region and for global construction of the international order. With its economic clout, Japan is now a partner of unprecedented importance for the United States. Fortunately, the basis of Japan-U.S. cooperation is firm, but its underlying security relations have been suffering from new tensions caused by the persistent bilateral trade imbalance, the gradual worsening of American feeling toward Japan as exemplified by the emergence of revisionists in contrast to the abating fear of the Soviet threat, and the criticism of Japan’s slow action for the Gulf crisis. In the circumstances we should keep in mind the global implications of the Japan-U.S. relations and make renewed efforts to reinforce this important alliance relationship which forms the basis of Japan’s diplomacy. More specifically, our efforts should focus on the following four areas. First, a substantial amount of trade imbalance is feared to remain between Japan and the U.S. in the years ahead. Economic frictions in terms of technology and investment will emerge, shaking the bilateral relations from time to time. Although economic restructuring in Japan proceeds in line with the recent agreement on the Japan-U.S. Structural Impediments Initiative talks, not much improvement of the situation can be expected without prompt recovery and improvement of U.S. competitiveness. Any protectionist attempts such as managed trade should be blocked at any cost. Both sides should make utmost efforts to solve problems through rational and practical talks and by not allowing economic problems arising from these imbalances to develop into serious political issues. Destablizing the economic relations between the two countries will not only greatly affect their economies but also have a major impact on the stable development of the world economy, including developing economies. For the immediate future concerted bilateral cooperation should be focussed on ensuring a successful Uruguay Round of the GATT. The Uruguay Round was deadlocked at the ministerial talks in December 1990 over the agricultural issue, and the time is running out quickly. Failure of the talks will strike a heavy blow at the GATT’s free trade system, and in
220
Y. Oknwara
/ Japan- U.S. relations in the changing world
consequence, the world economy might well be subject to the risk of regionalism, bilateralism or unilateralism. The political will to succeed is strongly called for. Second, dialogue and exchanges on all levels of the two peoples should be encouraged. Utmost efforts should be made to root out the deep mutual mistrust arising from the perception gap which has been pointed out for some time. Despite all kinds of reports on ‘Japan bashing’ which tend to occupy our attention, we must remember that there are strong American interests in Japan and genuine goodwill toward Japan at the grassroots level. In promoting mutual understanding between Japan and the U.S., we must refrain from emotional reaction to hot discussions about Japan in the U.S. and vice versa. We must keep in mind the possibility of a clash of nationalism triggered by emotional antagonism that may be aroused if both sides lose their rational self-restraint in the face of criticism exchanged through mass media. The two nations should never take the other side for granted. Third, we must put a Japan-U.S. global partnership into practice and achieve bilateral cooperation in concrete terms. Our common challenge today is to help establish political freedom and market economy and build up peace and prosperity of the world, with particular emphasis on the Asia-Pacific region, which is to serve as the main arena of our global partnership for the reason of geographical proximity. The key to the success of this challenge is the economic power, financial resources and technological prowess shared by the two nations. We should be carefully watching and ready to cope positively with the developments of many regional cooperation moves. Fourth, in the sweeping wave of globalization, both Japan and the United States should mobilize their knowledge, experience and financial resources for cooperation in the areas of global concern such as the earth’s warming and other environmental issues. Economic cooperation to ensure social stability and better lives in developing countries is certainly a big task to be jointly undertaken by the two. Cooperative relations, if promoted from these wide perspectives, will help further the bilateral relations where attention often times tends to focus on competition rather than on cooperation. No other time in our history calls for more cooperation between our two nations than now.