Malarial range set to
spread in
two-thirds of the world’s could be living in a malaria transmission zone by the second half of the 21 st century, according to a report published this week. Currently, only 45% of the world population lives in malarial areas, but the predicted increase in global mean temperature of 3-5°C by 2100 would have important public health implications. 8 years ago the UN Environment and the World Programme
Nearly population -
Meteorological Organization set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC’s second full report was published on June 5 (Climate Change 1995, Cambridge: Press, Cambridge University 1996).The chapter on human population health is particularly pertinent to health practitioners. AJMcMichael (London, UK), the chapter’s main author, worked with 20 other contributors, one of whom, WJ M Martens, has made significant contributions to the modelling of the impact of climate changes on malaria. As stressed in the chapter, models can only show "the range within which both the mosquito and the parasite could survive with sufficient abundance for sustained transmission of malaria". Whether such transmission will happen at all, let alone be sustained, will depend on local circumstances.
a warmer
world
The reintroduction of endemic malaria into former malarious areas of the developed world, such as southern Europe, northern Australia, and the USA is unlikely because of existing surveillance and control mechanisms. But the impact on a
*
Size of effect graded from
++++
great to
+
small;
A
n
international research effort
linked
adult-onset non-insulin dependent diabetes (NIDDM). NIDDM1 is located at the end of the long arm of chromosome 2 at 2q37. "We know where many of the genes involved in insulin secretion and action are and there are none in this area", says co-author Graeme Bell (University of Chicago Medical Centre, Chicago, USA). "My gut feeling is that we are going to be in for a surprise and NIDDM is going to tell us something about the regulation of blood glucose levels that is to
unanticipated." The researchers, reporting this month in Nature Genetics, in Japan, Germany, and the USA used 490 genetic markers to compare the genomes of 330 pairs of MexicanAmerican siblings who had NIDDM. All the subjects were residents of Starr County, Texas, a rural county 1612
t Effect in response to extreme
§ Likelihood of altered disease distribution in response to climate ++ very likely, + likely; ** Number of new cases per year.
developing country could be devastating. In Indonesia, where 27% of the population has malaria in any one year, the proportion of the population
NIDDM gene locus uncovered has identified the locus for a gene
affected could rise by 25% by 2070. The subtitle of the IPCC’s report is "impacts, adaptations, and mitigation of climate change". In other words, something can be done to minimise climate change. Technologies are already available or in development
on the Rio Grande bordering Mexico. The county, whose population is 97% Mexican-American, has the highest rate of diabetes-related deaths in the state. It is thought that the prevalence of diabetes in the county is due to NIDDM susceptibility genes inherited from Native American ancestors. The study’s lead author, Craig Hanis, Professor of Human Genetics at the University of Texas-Houston Health Science Centre (Houston Texas, USA), said the discovery of NIDDMI is the first time a susceptibility gene has been found for a polygenetic, multifactorial, late-onset disease. Hanis said the same techniques could be used to identify the location of genes responsible for other common late-onset diseases such as hypertension and cardiovascular disease.
Michael
McCarthy
change graded
events;
+++
highly likely,
that would permit electricity to be generated with less CO2 production. David Sharp
Jury still phones
out
on
on
mobile
UK television this
A report(Watchdog HealthCheck) week
presented collated data that suggest mobile phones may be detrimental to health. But, according to the UK National Radiological Protection Board, more biological and epidemiological research is needed to clarify the situation. Existing scientific data are few and inconsistent, the NRPB said, but based on current safety standards for radiofrequency radiation, mobile phones do not present a health hazard. A European Commission expert group chaired by Alastair McKinlay (NRPB) has been mandated to draw up a blueprint for research into health aspects of mobile phones. A report is expected later this year. In the USA, the Wireless Technology Research Group is funding biological studies on effects of mobile
phones. D