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Last fuel stop before the moon
THIS WEEK
Desert future for land that once nourished Babylon Tigris and Euphrates rivers through Iraq were bountiful, sustaining civilisations such as Sumer and cities like Babylon. That stands in stark contrast to a detailed assessment of the region’s future under climate change, published in 2007 by Japanese and Israeli meteorologists
HADI MIZBAN/AP/PA
IS THIS the final curtain for the Middle East’s Fertile Crescent? With the region beset by drought and a slew of projected new dams in the pipeline, it is looking increasingly likely that the Mesopotamian cradle of civilisation will become a desert. In ancient times the valleys of the
Last fuel stop before the moon David Shiga
FORGET huge, expensive rockets. A plan being examined by a US government panel would allow smaller, cheaper rockets to fly to the moon and beyond by stopping off at an “orbiting gas station” . With conventional rockets, many tonnes of fuel are needed on such missions for each tonne of payload. Sending astronauts or the heftiest robotic probes to these distant destinations therefore requires huge launchers. That may be about to change. The panel convened by order of the White House to assess NASA’s plans for the future of human space flight – including the project to send people back to the moon by 8 | NewScientist | 1 August 2009
(Hydrological Research Letters, DOI: 10.3178/hrl.2.1). This suggested flow on the Euphrates could fall by 73 per cent, with the authors warning that the ongoing drought in the region was likely to become permanent. “The ancient Fertile Crescent will disappear in this century,” lead author Akio Kitoh of Japan’s Meteorological Research Institute in Tsukuba told New Scientist. “The process has already begun.” A series of dams is further reducing
the region’s water supply. Last week, Iraqi ministers called for urgent talks with upstream neighbours Turkey and Syria, after the combination of drought and dams cut flow on the Euphrates to 250 cubic metres a second – less than a quarter of what is needed to maintain crops in Iraq. Tension between Turkey and Iraq has been growing since May, when the Iraqi parliament refused to approve a trade deal with Turkey unless it contained binding clauses on river flows. But Turkey appears in no mood to compromise. In July, Turkey announced it is to go ahead with yet another dam, the Ilisu on the Tigris, and Iraq’s hydrological misery is compounded by Iran, which is also building new dams on tributaries of the Tigris, according to Hassan Partow at the UN Environment Programme. “Some of these rivers have run completely dry,” he says. Curiously, Iraq is set to worsen the problem by building its own dams, says Partow, including one of the world’s tallest on another Tigris –No place for a civilisation– tributary. Fred Pearce ■
private companies. Competition for this work would drive down costs and spur development of more efficient launch vehicles, Goff argues. “Until we lower the cost of transportation to space, we’re never going to see serious off-world exploration,” he says. It remains to be seen whether the panel will back the idea in its final report, to be published at the end of August. At a public meeting in June, panel member Jeffrey Greason of Xcor Aerospace
2020 – is pondering a radical idea to set up orbiting depots at which relatively small, inexpensive rockets could stop off to pick up fuel. The potential benefits of such a scheme are detailed in a white paper submitted last week by Jonathan Goff, an engineer “Private companies with Masten Space Systems in would compete for the Santa Clara, California. This would allow NASA to mount job of ferrying fuel to moon missions without spending the orbiting depot” billions of dollars developing the gigantic Ares V rocket. Existing, less said he was aware of the “many powerful rockets such as Boeing’s advantages” of fuel depots. “This Delta IV or Lockheed Martin’s panel is probably the best chance Atlas V would suffice, he says. depots are going to have in the Prior to each moon mission, next 10 years to get actual NASA fuel would be ferried to the support and funding,” Goff says. orbiting depot by these or even The potential role of these smaller rockets operated by depots is one of a handful of topics
flagged for further investigation by the panel’s subcommittee on exploration beyond low Earth orbit, according to a document it posted online in July. Bernard Kutter of United Launch Alliance, who is working on a project called Cryote to demonstrate the technology in a ground test, told New Scientist that panel members have been asking ULA “numerous questions” about its potential. Within NASA, some engineers have argued for investing in space-based demonstrations of technologies needed for fuel depots. These include sunshades that would keep stores of liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen rocket fuel cool enough not to boil away. Others point to downsides of the plan. Rocket malfunctions are not uncommon, and the more launches are needed for each moon mission, the more likely it is that something will go wrong, a former senior NASA official told New Scientist. ■
Desert future for land that once nourished Babylon Tigris and Euphrates rivers through Iraq were bountiful, sustaining civilisations such as Sumer and cities like Babylon. That stands in stark contrast to a detailed assessment of the region’s future under climate change, published in 2007 by Japanese and Israeli meteorologists
HADI MIZBAN/AP/PA
IS THIS the final curtain for the Middle East’s Fertile Crescent? With the region beset by drought and a slew of projected new dams in the pipeline, it is looking increasingly likely that the Mesopotamian cradle of civilisation will become a desert. In ancient times the valleys of the
Last fuel stop before the moon David Shiga
FORGET huge, expensive rockets. A plan being examined by a US government panel would allow smaller, cheaper rockets to fly to the moon and beyond by stopping off at an “orbiting gas station” . With conventional rockets, many tonnes of fuel are needed on such missions for each tonne of payload. Sending astronauts or the heftiest robotic probes to these distant destinations therefore requires huge launchers. That may be about to change. The panel convened by order of the White House to assess NASA’s plans for the future of human space flight – including the project to send people back to the moon by 8 | NewScientist | 1 August 2009
(Hydrological Research Letters, DOI: 10.3178/hrl.2.1). This suggested flow on the Euphrates could fall by 73 per cent, with the authors warning that the ongoing drought in the region was likely to become permanent. “The ancient Fertile Crescent will disappear in this century,” lead author Akio Kitoh of Japan’s Meteorological Research Institute in Tsukuba told New Scientist. “The process has already begun.” A series of dams is further reducing
the region’s water supply. Last week, Iraqi ministers called for urgent talks with upstream neighbours Turkey and Syria, after the combination of drought and dams cut flow on the Euphrates to 250 cubic metres a second – less than a quarter of what is needed to maintain crops in Iraq. Tension between Turkey and Iraq has been growing since May, when the Iraqi parliament refused to approve a trade deal with Turkey unless it contained binding clauses on river flows. But Turkey appears in no mood to compromise. In July, Turkey announced it is to go ahead with yet another dam, the Ilisu on the Tigris, and Iraq’s hydrological misery is compounded by Iran, which is also building new dams on tributaries of the Tigris, according to Hassan Partow at the UN Environment Programme. “Some of these rivers have run completely dry,” he says. Curiously, Iraq is set to worsen the problem by building its own dams, says Partow, including one of the world’s tallest on another Tigris –No place for a civilisation– tributary. Fred Pearce ■
private companies. Competition for this work would drive down costs and spur development of more efficient launch vehicles, Goff argues. “Until we lower the cost of transportation to space, we’re never going to see serious off-world exploration,” he says. It remains to be seen whether the panel will back the idea in its final report, to be published at the end of August. At a public meeting in June, panel member Jeffrey Greason of Xcor Aerospace
2020 – is pondering a radical idea to set up orbiting depots at which relatively small, inexpensive rockets could stop off to pick up fuel. The potential benefits of such a scheme are detailed in a white paper submitted last week by Jonathan Goff, an engineer “Private companies with Masten Space Systems in would compete for the Santa Clara, California. This would allow NASA to mount job of ferrying fuel to moon missions without spending the orbiting depot” billions of dollars developing the gigantic Ares V rocket. Existing, less said he was aware of the “many powerful rockets such as Boeing’s advantages” of fuel depots. “This Delta IV or Lockheed Martin’s panel is probably the best chance Atlas V would suffice, he says. depots are going to have in the Prior to each moon mission, next 10 years to get actual NASA fuel would be ferried to the support and funding,” Goff says. orbiting depot by these or even The potential role of these smaller rockets operated by depots is one of a handful of topics
flagged for further investigation by the panel’s subcommittee on exploration beyond low Earth orbit, according to a document it posted online in July. Bernard Kutter of United Launch Alliance, who is working on a project called Cryote to demonstrate the technology in a ground test, told New Scientist that panel members have been asking ULA “numerous questions” about its potential. Within NASA, some engineers have argued for investing in space-based demonstrations of technologies needed for fuel depots. These include sunshades that would keep stores of liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen rocket fuel cool enough not to boil away. Others point to downsides of the plan. Rocket malfunctions are not uncommon, and the more launches are needed for each moon mission, the more likely it is that something will go wrong, a former senior NASA official told New Scientist. ■