Learning curve calculation and plotting

Learning curve calculation and plotting

Como~,A ladas. ~ Vo4.4, pp. 87-93 P~pmon Press Lid., 1960 Printed in Great Britain LEARNING CURVE CALCULATION AND PLOTTING B. L. HATCHER Inventory C...

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Como~,A ladas. ~

Vo4.4, pp. 87-93 P~pmon Press Lid., 1960 Printed in Great Britain

LEARNING CURVE CALCULATION AND PLOTTING B. L. HATCHER Inventory Control, General Electric Company,t Neutron Devices Department, P.O. Box 11508, St. Petersburg, FL 33733. U.S.A. (Revised November 1979; received/orpublication 26 November 1979)

Abstract--A Basic time sharing computer programcan be used in manufacturing processes to determine the total man-hours required to build a number of units and the hours to build the first unit. The examples are based upon a 90% learning curve. The program and examples are given. INTRODUCTION The learning curve is a powerful tool that can be used for estimating effort or dollars required to perform a task. The learning curve theory is that as quantities double, the rate of learning remains the same. For a 90% learning curve this means the second unit requires 90% of the hours needed to build the first unit, and the fourth unit requires 90% of the average hours needed for the first two units. A Time Sharing computer program has been written in Basic language to calculate the learning curve and prepare a file for plotting the curve. The percent learning curve to be used, for the manufacturing process must be selected with care. If historical data is available, least squares analysis can be applied to it to determine the actual learning curve for a particular product and organization. LEARNING CURVE CALCULATION Two equations are used in the computer program. One is used to calculate the total man-hours required to build a predetermined number of units and is as follows: M I = M. X".(X) where M! = total man-hours required to build a predetermined number of units; M = number of man-hours to build first unit; X = any number of completed units; n = log (percent learning curve) + log (2). The second equation is used to calculate the hours to build the first unit when the hours to build the nth unit are known. It is as follows: H I = H - [ ( n + 1). (U")] where H i = hours to build the first unit; H = h o u r s n = log (percent learning c u r v e ) + log (2).

to build the nth unit; U = unit number;

RUNNING THE COMPUTER PROGRAM The program presented here is written in Basic time sharing language and was developed on a Honeywell 6620 computer. The plotting was done on a Typagraph¢ time sharing terminal. Example l is a listing of the computer program. Example 2 is a computer run showing the options required to calculate a curve and place the results in a data file (LCPLOT) later used to plot the learning curve. Figure l is a plot of the data file as prepared on the Typagraph terminal. Figure 2 is a listing of the data file from which Fig. l was plotted. Example 3 shows the options required to calculate the hours to build the first unit when the hours to build the nth unit are known. "tOperated for the U.S. Departmentof Energy by General Electric Company under Contract No. DE-AC04-76DP00656. ~tTrademark,TypagraphCorp. 87

B.L. HATCHER

88

Example 4 shows the options required to calculate and print the hours to build one unit and cumulative hours to build n units. Example 5 shows the options required to print the hours and cumulative hours for each unit, for l-n units. 30.00

26.00

22.00

18.00

&. t. "Az~ 14.00

IO.OO 5

I0

15

20

Z5

Lmit

30

~

number

Fig. I. Example of 9(]~ learning curve.

LIST LCPLOT

O000IO 000020 000030 000040 000050 000060 000070 000080

I, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. 8o

000090

9,

000100 000110 000120 000130 0(30140 000150 000160 000170 000180 000190 000200 000210 000220 000230 000240 000250 000260 000270 000280 000290 000300 000310 000320 000330 000340

I0, II, 12, 13, 14+ 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23o 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31 , 32, 33, 34, Fig. 2.

23.6°

20,4, 18.83476, 17.88524, 17o21081, 16.69176, 16.27212, 15.92131, 15.62082, 15.35863, 15.12653, 14.91863, 14.73062, 14,5592, 14.40184, 14,25652, 14.12163, 13.99~85, 13,87809, 13.7674~, 13.b6317, 13.56459, 13,47115, 13,38239, 13.29787, 13.21724, 13°14017, 13.06639, 12,99~63, 12 • 92768, 12.86233, 12. 7994, 12.73874, 12.68019,

40

45

50

Learning curve calculation and plotting

89

Fig. 2. (Coma) 000350 000360 000370 000300 000390 000400 000410 0U0420 000430 000440 000450 000460 000470 000480 000490 000500

35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44. 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, ~O,

12.62362, 12.5689, 12.bl595, 12.40461, 12,414~6, 12.36056, 12.31964, 12.27406, 12.22971, 12.18655, 12.14452, 12.10356, 12.06302, 12.02467, II.9B(~5, 11.949S2,

Fig 2. Data file, 90% learning curve EXAMPLE

1.

I O0 F I LE5 LCPLOT lid

PRINT "DO YOU MAHT TO PL()T AND/OR PRINT INDIVIDUAL CALCULATIONS"

115 PRINT "YES OR m)" 120 INPUT AS 12b IF A$-~YE5" GO TO I000 130 PRINT "DO YOU NANT TO CALCULATE THE

HOURS TO BUILD"

135 PRINT "THE FIRST UNIT, YE~ OR N(I ~ 140 ]~PUT AS 14b IF AS=wYEb u GO TO 2000 150 GO TO 30O0 I O(X) P~INT "THIS P()RTIO~ OF THE PROGRAM I~ILL CALCULATE THE LEAH~ING" 1005 PRIJwT "CORVE ALwD PLACE THE RESULTS IN A FILE NAMED LCPLOT.N lOlO PRhwT "THIS FILE IS THErw USED T() PLoT THE CURVE." I015 PRINT "YOU ALSO HAVE THE ()PTI(}J~ OF PRINTIJ~ THE INDIVIDUAL" I020 PRh,T"CALCULATIO,~S ON THE TERMINAL." I025 PRINT '~I')O YOU ~ANT TO PRIaT THE INDIVIDUAL CALCULATIONS?" 1030 PRI,,JT "YES 0,' (wO" lu40 INPUT IS 1060 SCRATCH 4'I 1065 PRI.wT "I.'~PUT PERCEr~T CURVE.HOURS F()R FIRST U~IT AND aO. I070 IIwPUT L.,a.n

1075 PRINT 1080 PRIIwT USING 5000

I 085 MO=O 1090 PRINT I005 FOR X-I TO N

I100 WI ,,M*X ~,'*( LOG ( L )/L(.R.; ( 2 ) )*X 1105 IF ]$='NO H GO TO I I I b I I 1 0 PRINT USI~O 5 0 ( ~ , X , M I - M O , MI

I 115 aRITE el ,X,MI-MO 1120 A=MI -MO l12b ~40,,Wl

OF U~WIT$"

90

B. L. HATCHER EXAMPLE

I.

(Co.td)

I130 ,WEXT X

1135 IF IS='YE5 W GO TO 1145 1140 PRINT USING 50()5,X,A,WI 1145 PRINT "DO YOU MA,~T TO RUN AGAIN" I I 6 0 PRh~T wYES OR .~0W I155 INPUT G$ llbO IF G$=wYE5" GO TO 100 1165 PRINT wCOMPLETE" 1170 GO TO 9 ~ 9

20OO GO TO 2(~35 2005 PRINT WI'HIS PORTION CALCULATES THE HUUR5 TO BUILD "ll~E FIRST" 2010 PRINT "UNIT IF THE HOURS TO UUILD THE NTH UNIT ARE K~OIWN" 2015 PRINT "6~TER PERCENT LEARNING CURVE, UNIT NO. AJWD HOURS TO BUILD" 2025

INPUT P,U,H

2030 F-(L(,~(P)/U)G(2) ) * I 2035 HI ,,H/ ( F * ( U*'*( LOG(P ) / L O G ( 2 ) ) ) ) 2 0 4 0 PRINT "I~,)UR5 TO BUILD FIRST U N I T = " I H I 2045

PRINT

2(>50 PRINTWDO YOU WANT T(} RUN THIS SECTI()N AGAIN? YES OR NO" 2055 INPUT AS 2060 IF AS="YES" GO TO 2015 206)5 PRINT "OJMPLETE" 2 0 7 0 GO TO 9 9 0 9 3000 GO TO 3005 3005 PRINT "THIS SECTION CALCULATES AND PRINT5 CUMULATIVE IIOURS" 3010 PRINT "INpLF[ PERCENT CURVE, HOURS FOR FIRST UNIT AnD NO. OF UNITS" 3015 INPUT L,~,N 3020 PRIL~T 3025 PRINT U51JwO ~000 3030 MO,,O 3035 FOR X=l

[0 N

3040 Ml =M-X**( LOG( L)/LOG( 2 ) )*X 3045 A=MI-MO 3050 MO=MI 3055 NEXT X 3060 PRINT USING 5005,X,A,MI 3070 PRINT 3075 PRINT "DO YOU ~A,WT TO RUN THIS SECTION AGAIJw? YES OR nOW 3080 INPUT AS 3085 IF AS="YES" GO TO 3010 3090 PRINT "COMPLETEW 3 0 9 5 GO TO 9 9 9 9

Learning curve calculation and plotting E X A M P L E I.

5000s

UNIT NO.

5005 s

#####

HOURS # # # # # # . ###

91

(Contd)

CUM. FK)URS ### # # # # . # ##

9999 E~D

EXAMPLE2.

RUN

IX) YOU WA~T TO PLOT AND/OR PRINT INDIVIDUALCALCULATIONS YES OR ~O ?YES THIS PORTION OF THE PROGRAM NIL/. CALCULATE THE LEARNING CURVE AND PLACE THE RESULTS IN A FILE NAMED LCPLOT. THIS FILE IS THE~W USED TO PLOT THE CURVE. YOU AL~O HAVE THE OPTION OF PRINTING THE IJ~DIVIDUAL CALCULATIONS ON THE TERMINAL. DO YOU ~ANT TO PRINT THE INDIVIDUALCALCULATIONS? YE~ OR NO ?NL)

INPUT PERCENT CURVE.HOURS FOR FIRST UNIT AND NO. ?.90,25.b,50 UNIT NO. 50

HOURS I I • 950

OF UNITS

CUM. HOURS 703,496

DO YOU I~ANT "IX) RUN AGAIN YES OH NO ?,wo COMPLETE ready

EXAMPLE3. RUN

DO Y()U ~A,~T TO PLOT AND/OR PRINT INDIVIDUAL CALCULATIONS YES (JR NO

?NO D(} YOU nANT TO CALCULATE THE HOURS TO BUILD THE FIRST UNIT. YES ()R NO ?YES THIS PORTION CALCULATES THE HOURS Tt) BUILD THE FIRST U,~IT IF THE HOURS TO BUILD THE NTH UNIT ARE KNOWN E,~TER PERCENT LEARNING CURVE. U~IT NO. AND H()URS TO BUILD ?.90, I 0,15.359 HOURS TO I~UILD FIRST U N I T 25.70229

ZX) YOU WANT TO RUN THIS SECTION AGAIN? YES ()R NO ?,~O COMPLETE ready

E X A M P L E 4. RU~

DO YOU NANT TO PLOT AND/OR PRINT INDIVIDUAL CALCULATIO,~S YE~ (}R NO ?,~O

B. L. HATCHER

92

EXAMPLE

4. (Confd)

DU YOU WANT TO CALCULATE THE HOURS TO BUILD THE FIRST UNIT. YES OR NO ?NO THIS SECTION CALCULATES AND FRIdTS CUMULATIVE HOURS INPUT PERCENT CUWVE. HOURS FUR FIRST UNIT AND r(G. OF UNITS 1.90.25.5.50 UNIT

rt0. 50

HUUUS II.950

W YOU WANT TO RUd THIS ?rcO COMPLETE

SECTION

CUM. HOURS 103.496 AGAIN?

YES OR NO

resdv l

EXAMPLE

5.

RUN

DO YOU NANT TO PLOT AND/OH PWI NT INDIVIDUAL CALCULATIlJdS YES OR NO ?YES THIS~PoWTIo~ OF THE PROGRAM NILL CALCULATE THE LEARNING CUPVE AND PLACE THE RESULTS Id A FILE NAYED LCPLOT. THIS FILE IS THEN USED TO PLOT THE CURVE. YOU ALSO HAVE THE OYTIOn OF PRIdTIdG THE INDIVIDUAL CALCULATIONS ON THE TERMIdAL. DO YOU hANT TtJ PRINT THE INDIVJDUAL CALCULATIONS7 YES OR rr0 ?YES INPUT PERCENT CUHVE.HOURS FOR FIRST UNIT AND 1r0. OF UNITS 7.90.25.5.50 UNIT

NO.

lb II

12 13 14 I5 16

17 I8 I9 20 21 22 23 I4 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

HOUHS 25.500 20.400 18.835 17.885 17.211 16.692 16.272 15.921 15.621 15.359 15.127 14.919 14.731 14.559 14.402 14.257 14.122 13.996 13.878 13.767 13.663 13.565 13.471 13.382 13.298 13.217 13.140 13.066 12.996 12.928 12.862 12.799 12.739 12.680 12.624 12.569 12.516 12.465 12.415 12.367

CUM.

HOURS

25.500 45.900 64.735 02.620 99.831 116.523 132.795 148.716 164.337 179.695 194.822 209.741 224.471 239.030 253.432 267.609 281.810 295.006 309.604 323.452 337. I I5 350.600 364. I51 377.533 390.831 404.048 417.188 430.255 443.250 456. I78 469.040 48 I .840 494.579 507.259 519.882 532.45 I 544.967 551.432 569.047 582.213

Learning curve calculation and plotting EXAMPLE

93

5. (Contd)

41 12.320 42 12.274 43 12.230 44 1~,187 45 12.145 46 12.104 47 12.064 48 12.025 49 11,987 ~0 11.950 Dr) YOU ~ANT To RU,¢ AGAIN YES OR NO ?HO ~)MPLETE

594.533 606,807 619.037 631.223 643.368 655.471 667.535 679.560 691o546 703.496