Leaving home in a stem family system: Departures of heirs and non-heirs in pre-industrial Japan

Leaving home in a stem family system: Departures of heirs and non-heirs in pre-industrial Japan

LEAVING HOME IN A STEM FAMILY SYSTEM: Departures of Heirs and Non-Heirs in Pre-lndustrial Japan SATOMI KUROSU ABSTRACT: To clarify the rules in a st...

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LEAVING HOME IN A STEM FAMILY SYSTEM: Departures of Heirs and Non-Heirs in Pre-lndustrial Japan

SATOMI KUROSU

ABSTRACT: To clarify the rules in a stem family, this study investigates the patterns of childrens' departures from home, using the 1870 household register of South-Tama, Masashi Province (4,787 individuals). Sons and daughters followed a schedule for home departures in their life course related to their sex and to sibling composition. Life-table analysis revealed that the "stayers' were children without siblings, eldest sons, and eldest daughters with only sisters; while the 'leavers ' were younger sons with elder brothers and younger daughters. This pattern was present regardless of economic status, with some variation in the speed of leaving home among sons. The leavers in general left for various destinations via marriage, adoption, service, and work migration. Larger proportions of sons than daughters remained in the home village. Examination of the exceptions to the rule showed that they tended to be incapable offollowing the main pattern. Analysis of the timing of a child's departure in relation to the heir's marriage or to the birth of the heir's first child revealed that within the standard schedule, sons and daughters were retained or released for the advantage of the family. Sisters were replaced by in-marrying brides. Brothers were kept in the home until the next generation was secured. The departure of children, or heirs and non-heirs, can be a good variable for comparing the rules of family systems.

This study investigates the patterns of the first migratory moves of sons and daughters that r e s u l t in t h e i r leaving the parental home and living elsewhere. It is an attempt to clarify the constellation of family members in a stem family. The study of the pattern and timing of Satomi Kurosu is a Research Associate at the International Research Center for Japanese Studies, 3-20eyama-cho, Goryo, Nishikyo-ku, 610-11 Kyoto, Japan. THE HISTORY OF THE FAMILY An International Quarterly, Volume 1, Number 3, pages 329-352 Copyright © 1996 JAI Press Inc. All rights of reproduction in any form reserved. ISSN: 1081-602X

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leaving home is expanding because it helps us understand individual and family life cycles in relation to social and economic institutions, including education, welfare, military, and labor participation (e.g. Young 1974, 1975; Goldscheider, Kobrin, and DaVanzo 1985). Some scholars have also examined shifts in the patterns of leaving home to reveal changes over cohorts related to education and economic change (Mayer and Schwarz 1989; Ravanera, Rajulton, and Burch 1995) and across periods and countries (Wall 1989; Zeng Yi, Coale, Choe, Zhiwu, and Li 1994). Leaving home marks the transition to adulthood and the acquisition of new roles in living arrangements for children, and affects household size as well as the number of consumer units in the original households of the departing children (Goldscheider, Kobrin, and DaVanzo 1985, p. 545). The timing of leaving home has important bearing on the mechanisms of the family systems of the pre-industrial period. Wall (1978, p. 181) suggested that in preindustrial England "there did come a time in the lives of most individuals when they would make a break with their first home." Yet if the children were destined to take over the farm they might not have left at all (Imhof 1984, pp.27-55). Wall was aware of certain types of family--the stem family, for example--which restricts an individual's right to move. Yet until now, little has been done to systematically and empirically investigate the timing and factors that impel sons and daughters to leave home in a stem family system (Smith 1977, Kurosu 1996). In the rules of the Japanese stem family, the household is said to "contain any number of married couples, but it can have only one in each generation" (Cornell 1987, p. 152). This rule is delineated in contrast to the simple or joint household formation system described by Hajnal (1982). Marriage brings the "crucial transition point" at which "one of the siblings stays and brings his or her spouse into the household, while all the others leave for other households elsewhere" (Cornell 1987, p. 152). Smith came to a similar conclusion and spoke of a 'hold-and-release policy' in a farming village in the eighteenth to early nineteenth century, finding that there was deliberate control in the timing of launching children in relation to the timing of in-marrying (Smith 1977, pp.140-145). There were several reasons for this policy. The rule was needed, first, for keeping "the family farm and other property intact from one generation to the next, assuring as nearly as possible that the family would continue in the village--and family survival was an overriding aim" (Smith 1977, pp. 134-135). Second, the rule also assured a labor force on the farm as well as in the household and in by-employments. The family was concerned to "keep the size and composition of the household within a relatively narrow range as required by the size and nature of the family farming" (Saito 1996, p. 13). As Goody noted, having "too many claimants for restricted resources" does nothing but harm to households (1973, p. 7). This principle holds not only for the number of children but also for the total size and composition of the household. And, third, the rule was important for assuring living space and privacy for the new couple (Smith 1977, pp. 134-135). One might add that the inclusion of in-comers may have caused some emotional tension and a power struggle. For example, the conflict between mothers-in-law and brides is a common motif for family drama, and the sister-in-law (called a "little mother-in-law" in Japanese) also comes into play. The stem family may have avoided unnecessary tension through deliberate control of in-marrying and by launching sisters. It is often taken for granted that the Japanese family in the past worked under stem family system rules. Yet we do not have enough statistical evidences to suggest how households in pre-industrial Japan applied these rules. The same rule might have been modified by the

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different economic and demographic constraints of the different regions (Hayami 1992, p. 288). This is an important point, since even among stem family systems we might expect differences in the preferences concerning which child stays or which child leaves to go where, depending on the type of farming or social and economic institutions. For example, in the Pyrenean stem family system, younger sons remained single and were kept as a labor force in the household of origin (Fauve-Chamoux 1988). Such practices were unknown in the stem family system in North-Germany where the system of Heuerling assured universal marriage. Benefiting from this system, non-inheriting sons all left and were provided with a small piece of rented land, and a cottage to live in (Schlumbohm 1992, p. 190). An investigation of the patterns of children leaving home, therefore, should help us to understand how the Japanese pre-industrial family worked. Individuals who are born in households, and their life course, are the focus of this study. It should not, therefore, be confused with studies on succession or household structure, in which households are the units of analysis. Focusing on the actors, I will ask (1) whether one child did indeed stay and the others all left, as the rule suggests; (2) if there were any differences in the schedules of leaving home related to sex, birth order, and the composition of the sibling group; (3) for what reasons children left; and, finally, (4) if there was any deliberate control with respect to the timing of the heir's marriage and the sibling's departure from home. Using a large household register of 35 villages from 1870, I take four steps to answer these questions. First, I use life-table analysis to demonstrate the dynamic process of leaving home and make comparisons by sex and sibling composition. Second, reasons for the departure are examined cross-sectionally in relation to the household's economic standing and distance of migration. Here 'leavers' and 'stayers' are identified, and the general patterns and reasons for leaving home are discussed. Third, I investigate closely cases that deviate from the normal and expected schedule of the 'leaving' and 'staying home' scenarios. Lastly, I attempt to test whether siblings' departures are independent of the heir' s marriage, and of the time when the heirs have their first children.

THE SOUTH-TAMA HOUSEHOLD REGISTER The data source used in this study is the Commoner Household Register of Hinojuku Village Groups, which is part of the household register gathered in South-Tama, Musashi Province in 1870. These villages were located west of Tokyo, and are the contemporary cities of Hino and Tama. The registered 2,121 households came from a flat area of fertile rice-paddies, south of Tama River, and smaller villages in the hilly landscape of Tama-Heights. Sericulture and spinning started to develop in the eighteenth century and this largely agricultural area was gradually incorporated into the market of Hachioji, the largest local city (Hino-city 1990, 1992; Yasuzawa 1972, pp. 194-208). Although the developmental level of the market economy and the geographic mobility of actors may have varied among villages, their geographic propinquity and the comprehensive coverage of the Hinojuku region convince us to pool them for this study. Since the study of the pre-industrial family is often hampered by the paucity of data, a household register of 35 villages presents an unusual opportunity for detailed statistical examination. The data provide the study with rare information which was difficult to obtain in the study of pre-industrial Europe (as described by Wall 1978, pp. 184-185). In the listing, a de facto and a de jure population can be differentiated. The register not only records a mark to

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indicate one's presence in or absence from the original home, but the mark is also coupled with the reasons for entry and exit (e.g. marriage, adoption, servicel). Dates and destination (village and household bead's name) are also attached to this information. Information about an individual' s life course events was maintained in the register as long as individual lived. Therefore, one can differentiate natural children who were born to the households, from in-coming members who came from other households inside or outside the village. Thus, it is possible to construct the composition of the siblings group of natural children, based on the relational information, sex, and age records. Three cautionary remarks are necessary, however. First, the data are not free of the problem of selectivity--i.e. I can deal only with the survivors in 1870. Therefore, I must assume here that the patterns of leaving home for those present in the listing are similar to those not present because of death. 2 With this assumption, I construct the sibling composition of children, keeping in mind the limitation that the family statuses date from 1870. I have no knowledge of siblings who might have died earlier. Second, it is plausible that the information for the de facto population is more accurate than for those natural children who left the original household some years ago. This concern is somewhat eased by a matching exercise of the in-out records of moves between households within the observed villages. The proportion of matches (93 percent of all 1950 cases) is very high considering the frequent change of household heads and names. 3 Third, when there are a series of exits (i.e. a person exits once, comes back, and exits again) only the most recent reason for exit or entry is recorded. Most of these cases concern those who exited for service, came back, and married. If the earlier information of service has been deleted, this affectively raises the age of leaving home. I have to assume, therefore, that the distribution of these cases are random among the sub-groups we compare. To minimize this concern, I will carefully look at patterns of service and also examine the reasons of exit by controlling age groups. In order to reduce the selectivity effect, I limit the data to individuals 15-49 years old in 1870, as in a previous study (Kurosu and Ochiai 1995, p. 264). Controlling the sample age enables us to limit the problem of selectivity by deaths by excluding higher risk populations (children and the aged). I focus on the natural children of the observed households. A previous study based on the same data examined only children below age 30 in 1870 (Kurosu 1995). That study gave a clear snap-shot of the migration pattern of children, contrasting the first sons, other sons, and daughters in 1870. The selection of age group 15-49 allows further contrasts by the composition of the sibling group by looking at in-marrying and the exit of siblings. The total units of analysis are 4,787 individuals, 93 percent of all the 15-49-year-old individuals observed in the data. Seven percent were excluded from the analysis because their birth place and order could not be determined because to their households being newly established, or because of their family position being in the parental or grand-child generation. Whether one is a natural child or not, and place in the birth order was reconstructed based on information about the relationship to the household head, exit/entry records, and age. This created three categories: (l) only child; (2) eldest child, with further information of siblings' sex; (3) younger child, with elder siblings' sex. We must be cautious when dealing with only children and a high sex ratio. At this point, it is not clear whether sex preference affected births among South-Tama peasants, that is, whether those who had only one daughter tried to have more children while those who had only one son stopped further births. The high sex ratio is probably due to the combination of the under-reporting of females who left home, 4 and the over-count-

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ing of males (i.e. inclusion of non-natural sons, because of the loss of migration information about them). Throughout this article, individual ages given in the conventional Japanese reckoning (newborns are listed as one year old) are adjusted to contemporary reckoning by subtracting one year. Information on landholdings is used to examine the economic standing of each person's household. Landholdings are measured as the sum of their agricultural yield, expressed in measures of rice (koku), or, where other crops were grown, in rice equivalents (Smith 1977, p. 30)--the standard measure in studies of villages in the Tokugawa period (e.g. Hayami 1992; Smith 1977). One koku equals approximately five bushels. The totals are classified into "below 2 koku," "2 to less than 10 koku," and "10 koku or more," roughly indicating tenant-farmers, part-owner farms and owner farms, and the landlord group serving as village officers, respectively. In South-Tama where life is centered around agricultural activities, landholding was the basis for political and economic control of the governors (Yasuzawa 1972, p. 18). Although the developing market economy eventually undermined the role of landholding in determining economic status, landholding remains the best indicator of economic status during the period of this study. Landholders will be referred to as small, middle, and large, indicating low, middle and high economic status.

THE PROCESS OF LEAVING HOME: LIFE TABLE ANALYSIS Is sex of the child or its birth order important when he or she leaves home? Was there any rule about which children stayed and which left the parental home? This is not synonymous with but is close to asking who become heirs or non-heirs. Here I would like to suggest an underlying rule of the stem family system that may be revealed by the patterns of leaving home. I will compare the process of leaving home by sex and sibling composition. A previous study of the relationship between family position (first child or some other) and departure from home using the same data found a tendency to prefer males as heirs (Kurosu 1996). Yet the significance of the composition of the sibling group did not emerge clearly. If a son had an elder brother, his schedule might have differed from a son with only an elder sister. If males were indeed preferred, the younger brothers should have become heirs and stayed while elder sisters were launched. Also, if a daughter had no brothers but only sisters, she might not have been launched as there was no alternative to succession, unless her parents adopted a son. For these reasons, the following sub-groups are differentiated for both males and females: 5 (1) only children; (2) eldest children with younger brothers; (3) eldest children with no younger brothers (i.e. sisters only); (4) younger sons/daughters with older brothers; and (5) younger sons/daughters with no older brothers (i.e. only older sisters). I applied the life table method of event history analysis using the 'survival' program in SPSS as a way of seeing the dynamics of of the 'leaving home' patterns. This analysis allows us to understand the process of leaving home by incorporating all individuals who are at risk. The ultimate dependent variable is the length of time (by year) from birth to the age of leaving home. The SPSS program provides life tables for each subgroup in great detail but these are too complex and not easily used for comparison of subgroups (Blossfeld, Hamerle, and Mayer 1989, p. 122). Therefore, plots of the survival function and the hazard function are shown here contrasting sub-groups of sons and daughters. The survival function expresses how many sons and daughters have not left home up to a particular age. Two different schedules among sons were generated (Figure 1). First, all

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sons except younger sons with brother(s) are clearly stayers. Only about 9-17 percent of them left home by the end of the observation period. Among them, the plot of only sons is slightly above those of others at any age, but after the thirties in particular. The plot of younger sons with a sister is at the bottom of this group between ages 24 and 36. The difference among them is minor compared to the pattern of younger sons with brothers. Younger sons with brothers were clearly leavers. They started to leave home after age fifteen and continued to leave. By their thirties, half of them had left their parental households. By their fourties, 70 percent of younger sons with brothers were away from home. For daughters also, two distinctive schedules emerged, with a wider spread of survivor functions than in the case of the sons. First, 90 percent of the daughters without any siblings continued to stay until the end of the observation, as was the case for sons except younger ones with older brothers (Figure 2). When the two figures are combined, the plot of the survival function of only daughters lines up well with that of younger sons with sister(s). Other stayers were eldest daughters without any brothers. Thirty percent of these daughters aged 18-26 exited with a speed similar to the younger sons with brothers in 1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.500 i

0.400

0.300

1 0.200 i

i

0.100 !I 0.000

Age + o n l y child + e l d e s t son with brother I + e l d e s t son with sister --Q--younger son with brother ----£~Younger son with sister FIGURE 1 Survival Functions Plot Estimated for Sons, 15-49

Leaving Home in a Stem Family System

335

Figure 1, but afterwards, these daughters stayed on, with 60 percent of them remaining at home. Second, younger daughters with older brother(s) and eldest daughters with brother(s) were leavers. The leaving process of younger daughters with brothers was dramatic between the ages of 19 and 30, but in particular between 22 and 26, with the proportion leaving then close to 20 percent of the risk population at each age. Interestingly, the pattern for the eldest daughters with younger brothers was almost the same as that for younger daughters, lagging about one year at any age. Their departure was as dramatic as younger daughters with older brother(s) between the ages 21 and 30, and, in particular, between 23 and 26, with more than fifteen percent of the risk population leaving home at each age. By 21-22 years of age, fifty percent of the daughters in these groups had already left the parental home. The comparison of Figures 1 and 2 suggests that leaving home for any of these daughters at any age after sixteen years proceeded faster than that of the younger sons with brothers---eighty percent of these sons were still at home at around the same age. However, both groups had completed their departure from home by age thirty. At the end of the observation, less than five percent of daughters remained home. Yet other leavers, not as dramatic as these two groups, were younger daughters 1.000 0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.500 0.401) 0.300 0.200 0.100 0.000

~ Q

Age

+only

child eldest daughter with brother .L eldest daughter with sister --II--younger daughter with brother ----El--younger daughter with sister

FIGURE 2

Survival Functions Estimated for Daughters by Sibling Composition

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with no brothers (i.e. with only older sisters). In the beginning of the process, this group also demonstrated quick exit comparable to other leavers, but, after age 21, their departure started to slow down and became stable after age thirty, when thirty percent of them were at home. Still, the departure process of this group was much faster than that of the male leavers. When the eldest daughters with sisters are paired with younger daughters with sisters, the proportion staying at the end almost equals that of only daughters. This suggests that when there were only daughters, the eldest stayed and the younger ones were not totally excluded from the opportunity of staying. The sisters who remained home were probably those for which the household recruited adopted sons to be husbands (muko-yoshi) in order to form the succeeding generation (Kurosu and Ochiai 1995). The median ages (i.e. survival time) of leaving home were 30.5 for younger sons, 22.4 for younger daughters with brothers, 24.6 for those with sisters only, and 23.4 for eldest daughters with brothers. This calculation was meaningless for only children and eldest sons who mostly remained at home. 0.250

0.200

0.150

0.100 I f

0.050

0.000

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

O

Age younger son with brother --a--eldest daughter with brother ---I--younger daughter with brother ---O--younger daughter with sister

FIGURE 3

Hazard Function Estimated for Sons and Daughters by Sibling Composition

A D

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The hazard function allows us to examine whether the process of leaving home (status change of 'being at home' to 'not at home') is age-dependent or not (Blossfeld, Hamerle, and Mayer 1989, p. 122). The function can be contrasted among sons and daughters in Figure 3. The hazard function at any age among only children (both sons and daughters), eldest sons, and younger sons with elder sisters was below 0.02. That is, the risk of their leaving home, particularly of only child and eldest sons is negligible. The hazard function for eldest daughters with younger sisters also remains below 0.02 but peaks 0.07 at ages 21-23. After age 23, the rate fluctuates and is difficult to interpret due to the small observation numbers. Therefore, I compare here only the sub-groups of (1) younger sons with older brothers; (2) eldest daughters with younger brothers; (3) younger daughters with older brothers; and (4) younger daughters without brothers (i.e. sisters only). From the previous analysis, it became clear that the departure from home was patterned within their life-course. But how significant was the schedule for the life-course of sons and daughters? Figure 3 shows that among younger sons, the probability of leaving home strongly increased after age seventeen until age 26. After about age 28 or so, plots of the hazard function become difficult to interpret due to the small number of persons still exposed to risk. "The estimated path of the hazard function becomes quite unstable and large variances are possible" (Blossfeld, Hamerle, and Mayer 1989, p. 122). The departure of younger sons are clearly age-dependent as compared to eldest sons and only children. However, the hazard rates at peak age are more than twice as high among younger and eldest daughters as younger sons. This suggests that there was a clearer schedule for leaving the parental home among daughters than for sons. This confirms and statistically corroborates "the well-known fact that daughters tend to be younger on leaving the parental home than sons" (Wall 1989, p. 384). The peak of the hazard function at ages around 22 among daughters suggest that, for whatever reasons, eldest and younger daughters with brothers were pressured or encouraged to leave home around this age. The rate for younger daughters with sisters rises till age 24, not as high as other daughters but much higher than sons. Younger sons were not pushed away from home as dramatically as daughters. Their departure was more gradual and towards their mid-twenties. It is clear that in the South-Tama region, leaving home of sons and daughters was not random. There was a standard schedule in the life-course of children by sex and birth order. First, if the child was the only one without any siblings, regardless of the sex, he or she remained in the parental household. Second, if there was more than one child, the eldest sons remained home. Daughters were destined to leave home unless they had no brothers. Among sisters, the eldest stayed and the younger had a chance to stay in lesser degree. Younger sons also remained home when their older siblings were only sisters. This suggests that in the observed region, the stem family system was well at work and that one of the children stayed and others all left home. Further, sons were preferred as stayers (i.e. as heirs for the succeeding generation). We need to contrast households of different economic status. Does the differential economic status of the households affect the departure schedule of sons and daughters? I compared the sub-groups of sons and daughters from small, middle, and large landholders for each sub-group examined above. As most patterns were found similar and some of them were hard to interpret due to the small number of cross-classifications, I discuss here only some notable differentials without showing plots. First, among stayers, only children, regardless of their gender, stayed at any economic status. Eldest sons showed some notable differences between those from small and middle/large holders. Relative to the eldest sons

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of middle and large holders who stayed, the proportion of sons that remained among small holders were slightly lower--about 75 percent. Younger brothers without elder brothers also indicated a similar contrast, the survival function of small holders was about five percent below those of middle and large holders at any age. A similar observation (although the numbers are too small to be conclusive, N = 57,82,22 for small, middle, and large, respectively), was made for the female stayers with further separation of the survivor function. While the majority of eldest sisters without younger brothers in the middle and large landholders stayed, half of the daughters in the small holders left home by their thirties. The patterns for leaving home were very similar and survivor functions were very close for both sons with elder brothers and daughters (younger ones and eldest ones with younger brothers). I should note, however, in both comparisons, the median age for leaving home was the highest among the middle holders (from small to large, 26.5, 28.7, 26.7 for sons, and 22.7, 23.2, 22.3 for daughters). Sons of the middle holders lagged by two years, and daughters by one year, from those of small and large holders. For both sons and daughters the exit started slightly faster among those of large holders than those small and middle holders. The survival plot of daughters of large holders was below those of small and middle holders at any age. For sons, the plots of small and large merged below the plot of middle holders. But towards the end of observation, the departure of sons of large holders surpassed those in other statuses. At the end of the observation, the remaining sons and daughters of large holders were the smallest among three groups. Thus, regardless of the economic status, the destined leavers did leave. However, the sons and daughters of large holders appear to have most completely exited the parental home. These differential schedules may relate to different strategies developed by the household in differential economic statuses. To grasp this mechanism, I will first look into the reasons for leaving home to understand major patterns, and then will examine the exceptional cases in detail.

REASONS FOR LEAVING HOME AND DISTANCE In this section, I will examine the reasons for leaving home and contrast the migration distance of leavers cross-sectionally. As the dynamic approach is no longer viable here, I will control the age group (at time of registraion in 1870) at 24 for sons and 22 for daughters. These are the average ages of those who left home. For what reasons did sons and daughters in South-Tama leave home? Three major ways of leaving home were marriage, service, and adoption (Table 1). It should be noted that service includes temporary migration. In some cases, offspring returned later and stayed on. One study of the Tokugawa period reports that they usually could extend yearly contracts for several years, and more than two-thirds of them did not return home but eventually married, migrated to distant places from home, died or disappeared for unknown reasons (Hayami 1992, p. 276). Adoption and marriage, unless individuals returned or divorced, imply a permanent change of residence (i.e. registered household). The rest are all summed up in the category 'other,' which includes a variety of reasons for migration. The most frequent reason is work (dekasegi), followed by becoming a priest; and there are a few cases of forming branch households (bunke), living with another family, and the re-establishment of extinct households (tsubure-nyuseki). In this register, work migration is more permanent than service, because it involves formation of a new household outside

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of the natal village. Work migration also includes family migration. Although individual mobility and family mobility should be distinguished (Wall 1978, p. 183), I have included the work migration of the whole family in the analysis. This is not because the two cannot be differentiated but rather because there was no difference in the way the stem-family rule applied to a sibling leaving the parental home--alone or with his family. However, children who merely followed their parents' work migration are not included in the analysis. In reality, the proportion who left home (with family) after marriage is very small but requires special attention in the later section. Adoption was another reason for migration. For females, migration for adoption was clearly indicated and differentiated from marriage in the register. For males, however, there is no distinction between the two. Both are termed 'adoption'. This is due to the fact that adoption is defined to include sons who marry-in to daughters (muko-yoshi). Even among the adopted sons who did not marry natural daughters, some often took brides in the same or consecutive year (Kurosu and Ochiai 1995). From the distribution of marital status of the adopted sons who came into the households, it seems safe to differentiate adoption under age fifteen, the age when one was customarily recognized as an 'adult' in this region (Ministry of Justice 1976). I will define adoption which took place before age fifteen as 'adoption', and adoption which took place after age fifteen as 'marriage', since most adult adoption coincided with marriage with daughters or outside brides. TABLE 1

R e a s o n s of Leaving H o m e by Sex and Sibling C o m p o s i t i o n

Ma~ Below 24 Years At Home Left Marriage Adoption Service Other All

Leavers

Stayers

N

%

N

%

403 137 25 7 95 10

75 (25) (18) (5) (69) (7) (100) 100

360 36 2 0 30 4

91 9 (6) (0) (83) (11 ) (100) 100

540

396

24 Years and Above

Below 22 Years At Home Left Marriage Adoption Service Other All

Fema~ Leavers Stayers N

%

N

%

444 180 101 5 71 3

71 29 (56)

56 8 5

88 13 (63)

624

(3)

o

(o)

(39)

3

(38)

(2)

o

(0)

64

(100) 100

(100) 100

22 Years and Above

At Home Left Marriage Adoption Service Other

327 347 269 11 27 40

All

674

49 51 (78) (3) (8) (12)

815 76 28 2 17 29

(i oo) 100

91 9 (37) (3) (22) (38)

At Home Left Marriage Adoption Service Other

237 1113 1063 7 24 19

All

1350

0 oo) 891

100

Notes: Leavers Male: younger sons with older brothers. Leavers Female: eldest daughterswith younger brothers, younger daughters. Stayers Male: only child, eldest sons, and younger sons with older sisters. Stayers Female: only child, eldest daughters with younger sisters.

18 82 (96) (1) (2) (2) (100) 100

188 60 56 2 1 1 248

76 24 (93) (3) (2) (2) (100) 100

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Table 1 contrasts (1) the proportions at home and not at home and (2) respective reasons for leaving home by sex, birth order and sibling composition. 6 Two sub-groups are contrasted among sons and daughters, based on the results from the above life-table analyses: (a) leavers (younger sons with older brothers; eldest daughters with younger brothers, and younger daughters), (b) stayers (only children and eldest sons; younger sons with older sisters; eldest daughters with younger sisters). The primary reason for leaving home among sons in the early stage (top-left panel) was service. Marriage took precedence only in the later age group. Temporary migration in the form of service and other categories appears larger among stayers. While the prime reason for departure among younger sons was marriage, departures of eldest sons and only sons were due to temporary service or other various reasons as well---e.g, left for establishing new households, becoming priests. It appears that the reasons of leaving home were quite different for those who normally were destined to stay at home. There were few differences between two groups among daughters (right panel). Stayers rarely left, but, when they did, the prime reason for departure was marriage and service in the first age group, and marriage in the latter, as was the case among leavers. In contrast to sons, the reasons for leaving home were similar between expected stayers and leavers. The experience of leaving home varied according to the different economic statuses of the households into which children were born. As differing numbers of siblings are likely to influence the result, I focus only on the expected 'leavers' group in this table. 7 The reasons for departure (analyzed by economic status) suggest that the main differences were in the institution of service (Table 2). Regardless of sex, a larger proportion of children of small holders left home for service than those of larger holders. This is why the departure schedule among sons of small holders started early. 8 The proportion of those remaining at home are lower at both ends of the economic continuum and higher among the middle holders. This pattern is due to the fact that more children of small holders were in service, while more children of large holders left for marriage and adoption. With the process observed towards the end of the schedule in the earlier section, it is clear that, overall, the younger sons of large holders generally left home via marriage. Although there are differences in the later stage for sons, it is interesting that they are more apparent in the earlier stage for daughters. While service was the primary reason for migration in all economic statuses during the earlier stage, more sons of smaller holders were in service or away for other reasons than those of middle and large holders in the later stage. Daughters of middle and large holders below age 22, left home for marriage while those of small holders left home for service. In the later stage, however, the majority of daughters of any economic statuses left for marriage. Thus service explains the delay of marriage among daughters of small holders (Kurosu 1994). Where did they all go? What does geographic mobility tell about social networks'? Did parents, for example, prefer to keep their children in the same village? Contemporary family studies suggest the preference of a living arrangement in which aging parents and young couples live within a short distance, so that they can mutually benefit by household help and child-rearing (e.g. Morgan and Hirosima 1988; Diewald 1992). In the Japanese stem family, however, the required labor could be acquired within the household, either by retaining enough family members, including older generations and youth, or by recruiting, that is, replacing the departing children by adopted sons, brides, and servants. When recruiting was possible it was not necessary to keep surplus children close. However, when

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families recruited members, the locality may have been important, particularly for the adoption of sons, because they eventually became household heads, and at the same time formal member of the village (Kurosu and Ochiai 1995, p. 279). I have separated the destinations of leavers into three categories: within the village, outside of the village but within Tama province, and outside of Tama province (Table 3). This is a proxy for the distance of migration. As the village boundary is believed to have had a distinctive importance in the economic and social fabric of the Tama peasants, these categories will suffice for now. In general, a greater proportion of sons remained in the home village. More daughters than sons were sent outside of the home village in both age groups. The proportion of sons who remained in the home village was about the same among younger sons with brothers (leavers), and among only children and eldest and younger sons with only sisters (stayers). Among women, the proportion in the home village was smaller among leavers. It is interesting to note that among both sons and daughters in stayer groups who left Tama province the proportion was twice as high as leaver groups. Although the proportion of expected stayers who left home was small to begin with, when they left, they migrated far. These observations derive from the patterns of migration in which marriage was over-represented (Table 4). The largest migration within the village was due to the marriage or adoption of sons. Male marriages took the form of the recruitment of adopted sons and was more restricted or bound to the locality than that of brides (Kurosu and Ochiai 1995, p. 279). Although the number is too small to be conclusive, adoption of sons (adopted before age fifteen) was not as bound to the village as was marriage. By contrast, female adoption was more bound to the village boundary than female marriage. 9 Migration for service (if not permanent) did not affect heirship and therefore tended to carry sons and daughters still farther away. The launching of children for servants was not only less bound to the village, it was also practiced on a larger scale than launching for adoption and marriage across geographic and political boundaries. This was also the case for work TABLE 3 Destination of Home Leavers by Sex and Sibling Composition

Male Stayers

Leavers Within Village Within Tama Outside Tama Total

All

N

%

N

%

N

%

131 293 56 480

27 61 12 100

29 56 25 110

26 51 23 100

160 349 81 590

27 59 14 1O0

21 62 18 100

254 994 118 1366

19 73 9 100

Missing Cases = 6

Fema~ Within Village Within Tama Outside Tama Total

240 952 106 1298

18 73 8 100

14 42 12 68

Missing Cases = 13 Note:

See notes in Table 1 for definitionhs of leavers and stayers. This table includes only those who left home,

Leaving Home in a Stem Family System

343

TABLE 4 Destination of Leavers by Reasons Male Within Village Marriage Adoption Service Other All

Within Tama

Outside Tama

All

N

%

N

%

N

%

N

%

94 4 22 10 130

32 22 18 23 27

175 10 88 19 292

60 56 73 43 61

25 4 11 15 55

9 22 9 34 12

294 18 121 44 477

100 100 100 100 100

86 1 11 6 104

7 8 12 30 8

1164 12 95 20 1291

100 100 100 100 100

Missing Cases = 3 Female Marriage Adoption Service Other All

221 3 12 3 239

MissingCases =

19 25 13 15 19

857 8 72 11 948

74 67 76 55 73

7

Note: This table includes leavers only. For definition, see Table 1.

migration (dekasegi) which was overrepresented in the migration outside of Tama in the 'other' category. The destinations of both sons and daughters included distant urban areas like Yokohama and Tokyo. One study of a Tohoku village suggested that, in general, service to neighboring villages coincided with the range of the marriage market (Narimatsu 1992, p. 93). In the case of South-Tama, the market for brides and service might have also overlapped but that of service was larger.

H E I R S W H O LEFT, N O N - H E I R S W H O S T A Y E D So far, we have observed clear schedules for only children, eldest, and younger siblings. In the final two sections, I will further examine migration in relation to heirship, which is a crucial concern for stem family organization. I first examine some individual cases which seem to deviate from the standard 'hold and release policy': expected stayers who left, and expected leavers who remained. Only children clearly tended to remain in the household, which implied that they became heirs. However, some were absent from home in 1870. A detailed examination of the register uncovers part of the scenario. Among 287 only sons, eighteen left home. Twelve of them were in service, suggesting that they would have eventually come back to head the household. Two sons away for work, together with their families (wives and children), and one son adopted out, left their old fathers (heads) behind in the original household. Two sons who exited for work and religious reasons left their wives and children behind in their original households. Another son left to create a new branch household and his parents adopted a son in his place. Since the adopted son happened to come from the same distant village for which the natural son left, some exchange might have been at work. This interchange hints at the social network through which children moved. What about only daughters? Eleven out of 143 daughters left home, deviating from the common pattern. One daughter was adopted out and all the others married out. When they were daughters of larger landholders,

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their parents adopted sons and immediately recruited brides for them, thereby securing the succession. However, the scenario was different among small holders. Either no one or only an adopted parent remained after the only daughter left home. Thus two of these households became extinct and other similar households appeared to have become extinct sooner or later. The majority of eldest sons remained in their natal households. However, some eldest sons left home, and they require attention. Among 774 eldest sons, 61 had left their parental households. Half of these absent sons were in service, suggesting again that they would return for the succession. Thirty-six eldest sons, however, appear to have left home for good: 23 for adoption/marriage, eleven for work, and two for religious reasons. It would seem that these persons tended to have more siblings so that their departure meant some other sibling stayed on to succeed. An interesting aspect was that social mobility among eldest sons (those who left before age thirty) was upward, while that of other sons was downward (Kurosu 1995, p. 17) What about siblings who were supposed to be non-heirs but remained at their parental households till old age? Some non-heirs married but remained in their natal homes with their wives and children. All of their sibling-heirs were also married, so that these families formed joint households. This group is a very small fraction (1.4 percent, 24 cases) of the non-heir siblings. Observation of other non-heir marriages is suggestive. Among 35 married non-heirs, eight left for work or were adopted out together with their wives or with children. They exited their natal households one to ten years after their marriages. This suggests that there was a time lag between a non-heir's marriage and his departure from home, but it does not undermine the general rule of the stem family. The conclusion about the deviation of a minority of families from the stem family household formation pattern is shared by Saito (1996, p. 20). Still, it should be noted that a few non-heirs, with their families as well as with their sibling-heirs' families, remained at the natal household well after ten years of their marriage, thus forming joint families. I can only speculate that these non-heirs were still waiting for their departure or had missed their chance, or they chose to stay. Yet other non-heirs who remained home were single. After the leaving home process appeared to have been completed (age 40), still 37 (out of 561, 6.6 percent) non-heir adult children remained in their natal households, where their siblings had already succeeded to the headship. Twenty-seven of these non-heirs were male siblings and ten were female. Three of them were elder sisters of the heir. I do not know why these siblings did not marry, but several possibilities suggest themselves. First, they could not marry due to physical or mental weakness. Second, they were capable of leaving home but failed to leave when the opportunity arose (or the opportunity never arose). Or, third, they were kept in the parental households as a labor force. The third possibility is similar to the Pyrenean stem family practice (Fauve-Chamoux 1988) but is not common in the observed area, although there is no reason to abandon this possibility in interpreting our data. If they were kept as labor, they should be represented by children of the larger landholders. The distribution of these non-heir's household by economic status, however, was not much different from the distribution of all non-heirs. Therefore, the first and second reasons appear more plausible for the peasants of South-Tama. The data demonstrate that, although not a large number, there were departures of non-heirs long after the major schedule of leaving home ended. That is, even after age 40, some siblings left home for marriage, adoption, and work. Based on this observation, it may be suspected that some of these non-heirs were still waiting for their departure from home. The local marriage or labor market might not have been favorable

Leaving Home in a Stem Family System

345

for them. Some of them could have been voluntary stayers, remaining for one excuse or another. 1° Yet there is another reason to believe that some others were destined to be at home as dependents. The register documents that some of these non-heirs were sick or died by the end of 1870. Also, in the case of one male, his heir-sibling was an adopted son, suggesting that the adopted heir was a replacement for the natural child. In yet another case, an heir died but the younger brother of the unmarried sibling took over the heirship. These observations suggest that these siblings were not competent to become heirs or leave home. In these cases, the family functioned as a welfare institution for the frail. These results suggest that there were exceptions to the major schedules, but they were few. Most often, they were caused by difficult conditions and arrangements for distributing non-heirs--either they themselves were not able, or they did not find any positions for work or marriage--outside their natal home. Otherwise, the process of leaving home suggests that the stem family system was well at work among South-Tama peasants.

TIMING OF THE DEPARTURE OF UNMARRIED SIBLINGS Were the departures of unmarried siblings influenced by the heir' s marriage and the birth of his first child? How can we know whether households deliberately retained non-inheriting sons and daughters? We must consider many factors in analyzing this timing. Smith (1977, p. 141) suggests that "if departures tended to concentrate around the marriage in, we may infer that a conscious retention policy was in effect; if not, some other principle may have controlled them, such as departure at a conventional age or at will." Smith calculated the departure rate per 1,000 person-years in the age group fifteen to 45 and found that indeed a conscious retention policy was in effect in Nakahara with respect to sons' departures. However, his sample was too small to be conclusive.1 l I have used Smith' s method to examine the timing for unmarried sibling departures relative to the heir's marriage. Figure 4 examines whether each departure was independent of the heir's first marriage. The focus is on marriage because there is no way of pinpointing the time when the heirship was transferred. For this examination I compare the timing of a sibling's departure with the marriage of his/her sibling-heir. Siblings close in age to the heir were of the greatest concern for the integrity of the stem family; thus I controlled for age differences between siblings (i.e. I chose for the analysis one-to-five-year-old younger or older brothers/sisters of the heir). Elder sisters left the parental home before the sibling's marriage. Their departures peak in the years prior to the marriage. By two years after their younger sibling-heir's marriage, most of them seem to have completed the process of leaving home. The departures of younger sisters peak at around the year of the heir's marriage. This clustering of daughters' departures around the heir's marriage was also seen in Nakahara--although Smith deals only with the daughters' out-marriages (1977, p. 143), whereas I include all the reasons for departure. The probability that younger sisters would leave the parental home rose from the level of 100 per thousand to nearly 220 in the year of the heir's marriage and the year immediately following the marriage, dropping suddenly in the latter. Sons' departures, although more moderate in scale than daughters', began with the heir's marriage and continued well into the eighth year after the marriage.

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The hold-and-release policy may have affected the general schedule of departure, so I contrasted mean age of departure in three different groups, following Smith's method (1977, p. 145) (Table 5A). The results suggest that the age of departure of non-heirs were related to the heir's age at marriage. These findings confirm Smith's findings in Nakahara that both older and younger brothers were on average older at departure when the heirs married late and younger when they married early (Smith 1977, p. 142). When the heir married early, his younger sisters also left home early. When the heir married late, his younger sisters also delayed leaving home. The difference-of-means test reveals that the differences between the groups were significant for sisters but not significant for brothers. Sisters' departures were dependent upon the heir's marriage, while brother's departures were not affected. Elder sisters left at older ages than younger sisters in the first two age groups. This confirms the life table analysis in the first section: the departure of oldest daughters with brothers was lagging about one year behind that of younger daughters with older brothers. Were the departures of non-heirs independent of the birth of the heir' s first child? The answer is no. 12 The departure pattern again suggests that the launching of non-heirs must have been deliberately controlled. The patterns of sisters in Figure 5 were modified from Figure 4. For elder sisters, the peaks of departures were much earlier than the birth of the 250

200

150

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/~ ~ +

12-10

9-'/

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3-5 6-8 years after--->

1-5 youngerbrothers I-5 elder sisters 1-5 youngersisters FIGURE 4 Departure of Non-Heirs, Relative to the Timing of Heir's Marriage

9-11

12-14

Leaving Home in a Stem Family System 160,

347

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140

120

100

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80

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20

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FIGURE 5

Departure of Non-Heirs, Relative to the Timing of Heir's First Birth

heir's child, and therefore their departures were not related to the heir's child. Younger sisters left within a few years of the birth but the pressure for departure was over by the third year after the birth. The most notable pattern change from the previous figure was for brothers. The departure pattern for younger brothers, which was not obvious in the previous analysis, became clear. This new peak became as high and as pointed as those for sisters at the marriage of the heir. Their departure pattern shows a clear peak at the year of birth and the subsequent two years. Table 5B, which shows the average differential timing depending on the heir's age at first birth, supports these pattern changes. The difference-of-means test was significant only for brothers. Hence, within the permissible age range, non-heirs timing of leaving home was controlled by the heir's marriage or the birth of his child. Younger sisters were sent away as soon as their siblings married. Elder sisters started to leave well before their siblings' marriage, but many of them may have been retained until immediately before the heir's marriage was arranged. I suspect that this is why their average age at marriage was older than that of younger sisters (Table 5A) and their departures lagged behind those of younger siblings (Figure 2). While the departures of sisters depended upon the heir's marriage, the departures of younger brothers were dependent upon the birth of the heir's first child. The

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TABLE 5A Mean Age of Siblings at Departure, According to Heir's Age at Marriage Heir's Age at Marriage

1~5 Younger Sisters

1,-,5 Older Sisters

1,-,5 Younger Brothers

Less Than 22 (s.d.) N

20.84 (4.3) 98

21.73 (3.7) 103

23.36 (7.3) 47

23-27 (s.d.) N

21.90 (4.6) 93

23.14 (4.3) 59

24.52 (6.4) 69

28+ (s.d.) N

23.82 (4.6) 33

23.82 (5.2) 34

27.60 (8.0) 20

All (s.d.) N F Value

22.72 (4.5) 224 5.61 **

22.52 (4.2) 196 4.10"

24.57 (7.0) 136 2.26

TABLE 5B Mean Age of Siblings at Departure, According to Heir's Age at First Birth

Note:

Heir's Age at 1st Birth

1,..5 Younger Sisters

1~5 Older Sisters

1,-,5 Younger Brothers

Less Than 22 (s.d.) N

21.02 (4.9) 46

22.02 (4.2) 52

22.96 (6.9) 61

23-27 (s.d.) N

21.92 (4.3) 97

22.22 (3.2) 72

24.43 (6.9) 61

28+ (s.d.) N

22.74 (5.5) 43

23.19 (4.1) 34

28.13 (4.7) 32

All (s.d.) N F Value

21.89 (4.8) 186 1.44

22.34 (3.7) 158 0.91

25.01 (6.4) 119 5.42**

*Significant at 0.05 level; ** significant at 0.01 level.

peak (Figure 5) suggests that younger brothers might have been retained until after the survival of the heir' s child became almost certain. Moreover, the rate of departure did not drop till nine years after birth. This m a y suggest that some brothers were retained until the birth o f the heir' s second child. After the survival of an heir' s son was confirmed, brothers might have been released from home. If so, this practice resembles the Austrian practice that "one brother often remained at home until an heir was born, as if to secure the male line of the family" (Mitterauer and Sieder 1979, p. 273). Sisters were replaced by in-marrying brides. Brothers were kept till the next generation was secured.

Leaving Home in a Stem Family System

349

CONCLUSION Sons and daughters in South-Tama followed a schedule in departing from home during their life course depending on their sex and sibling composition. The life table analysis revealed the expected 'stayers' and 'leavers' among these children. If the child was the only child without any siblings, regardless of the sex, he/she remained in his/her parental household. If there were more than one child, the eldest sons remained home. Sons were preferred as stayers. Daughters were generally destined to leave home unless they had no brothers. When all siblings were sisters, the eldest stayed and the younger ones were retained to a lesser degree. Thus, the expected 'stayers' were only children, eldest sons, and eldest daughters with only sisters, while the expected 'leavers' were younger sons with older sisters (i.e. no elder brothers) and younger daughters. This set of schedules were found regardless of economic status with some variation in the speed of leaving home among sons. Sons of large holders exited early for marriage, while sons of small holders exited early for service. The leavers in general went to various destinations via marriage, adoption, service, and work migration. Larger proportions of sons than daughters remained in the home village. When the exit of expected stayers occurred, a considerable proportion of them crossed the home village boundary to do so. This was particularly true for sons. Some of them left for temporary service without risking the succession. But others left permanently: many of them left via other mechanism or reasons other than the standard marriage departure. Examination of the exceptions to the rule revealed that they tended to be incapable of following the major schedule. The expected stayers who left tended to come from a larger sibling group. Thus the successors appear to have been replaced by their younger brothers. There were expected leavers who remained home even after their sibling-heir's marriage. This may have been caused by difficult conditions and arrangements for distributing non-heirs. Since the incidence of these exceptions is small, they do not undermine the general rule of the hold-and-release policy. Analysis of the timing of a child's departure, in relation to the heir's marriage or the birth of the heir' s first child revealed that within the standard schedule, sons and daughters were retained or released to maximize the advantage of the family. Elder sisters tended to complete their departure before the heir's marriage, while the younger sisters' probability of departure doubled in the year of and the year after the heir's marriage. Younger brothers tended to depart after the heir had his first child. The mean age of departure in terms of the heir's age at marriage suggested that when the heir married early, his younger sisters also left home early, whereas when the heir married late, his younger sisters also delayed their departure. This relation also holds true for the heir's age at the birth of his first child. I agree with Saito that sons and daughters in the life-cycle age between maturity and marriage were tightly bound to the household under the Japanese system of stem family (1996). Within the permissible age range, non-heirs were held or released upon the heir's marriage or the birth of his first child. Similar analyses should be applied to longitudinal records and the records of various regions to further clarify the timing of marriage/birth and departure. Such longitudinal data should allow us to investigate the patterns for leaving home during the Tokugawa period and the question of whether the timing of departures became shorter or longer. The period under investigation here was at the end of the Tokugawa period, and in particular, of an area experiencing proto-industrialization. Growth in proto-industrial employment has been

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suggested as the reason for an increase in the mean age of women when they left home (Cornell 1989, pp. 223-231), whereas it lowered that of men if the growth was sufficiently strong to create new job opportunities in commerce and transport within the area in question (Saito 1996, p. 21). Whether the standard schedule found in this study is influenced by the development of local markets (e.g. silk industries) can be answered by comparing the trend of leaving home across periods. The departure of children, or heirs and non-heirs, can provide good evidence for understanding the rules of family systems. Differences in family systems are often examined by comparison of household structure and composition. This article suggests that the timing and patterns for leaving home add a more dynamic view to the picture. Similar analyses would benefit comparative studies of family systems, as well as variations within a family system. For example, do all the societies having a stem family system apply the same set of rules found in this study? I suspect that the composition of leavers and stayers, the factors that impelled their departure, as well as the relation between heir's marriage and siblings' departures are modified by the economic and social conditions within which actors try to practice the rule. The influence of demographic and economic conditions upon the ties binding adult children to their parental households is an important factor for the modification of the hold-and-release policy for maintaining the stem family.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This article is based on the paper presented at the European Social Science History Conference, Session 47 "Stem family systems and demographic models" at Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands, May 9-11, 1996. The author wishes to express special thanks to Professor Akira Hayami for his advice and generosity in allowing the use of his collection of the household register. The author also thanks Professor Emiko Ochiai and Dr. Mary Louise Nagata for their helpful comments, Ms. Saeko Narimatsu for reading and organizing historical documents, Ms. Sahoko Toyoda for data entry, and the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture for the research and travel fund.

NOTES 1. Deaths and births were also recorded but only when they occurred in 1870. 2. For the selectivity problem in life history data, see Wagner, Poetter, and Gilberg 1995. 3. I thank Professor Yoshihiko Ono for his technical assistance in the matching examination. 4. Eighty percent of the unmatched cases were females; particularly those who moved out were underrecorded in the original households. 5. I thank the discussant of the ESSHC session, Richard Wall, for this suggestion. 6. For example, if a 27 year old daughter was not present in her natal household in 1870, I checked her reason for exit. This does not mean that she left home after 22. Her exit could have been before she was 22 years old. 7. The marital fertility of these three groups were estimated using own-child method. With q0 = 180 West model, they are 4.80, 5.44 and 5.77 for small, middle, and large holders, respectively (Kurosu 1995). Since the reasons of migration are found to differ among the positions in the household, I focus here only on those major leavers. 8. The proportion left for service among sons (who left) of middle holders was as large as among those of small holders. However, the overall size of leavers was smaller than that of small holders. This is why, in the life table analysis, the survival function of the sons of small holders started to decline faster than that of middle holders.

Leaving Home in a Stem Family System

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9. These kinds of adoption which were not treated in the previous study of adoption with the same data (Kurosu and Ochiai 1995), require another set of investigations. A separate explanation may be in order from the adoption for succession. 10. For example, their aspiration might have been so high that a marriage arrangement could not be successful. Or they chose to remain home to take care of family members. I observed one mother who was recorded sick and her adult child remained unmarried. There is a possibility that these adult children once married in their natal home but that their spouses were deceased. If they were married elsewhere and returned home, their return was recorded with reason given (e.g. divorce). There is no ways to tell from the data whether some of the remaining old non-heirs were ever married. But if they were, the explanation relates to the above mentioned married non-heirs who were still at home. Using longitudinal data, I plan to investigate the patterns of "returning home" of heirs and non-heirs. 11. His sample included only 33 younger brothers. 12. I again use the same denominator in the analysis of the timing of marriage and leaving home--the total number who belong to the three age/sex categories. This is why the rate of Figure 5 is lower than Figure 4 in general. But the patterns in Figure 5 are equally suggestive.

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