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Letter to the Editor of Climate Policy
Climate Policy 3 (2003) 479–480
Letter to the Editor of Climate Policy 15 October 2003
The EU should go ahead with the implementation the Kyoto Protocol without Russian ratification Niklas Ho¨hne, ECOFYS, Cologne, Germany The recent World Climate Change Conference in Moscow, Russia lead to the impression, that the Russian government, contrary to previous announcements, may not ratify the Kyoto Protocol in the very near future (see also Article by M. Grubb in this issue). There are two options for the Kyoto supporting European Union to act in this situation. Either it will give in and offer something ‘‘serious’’ in- or outside of the Kyoto Protocol to the Russian Federation in return to its ratification. But the past negotiations have shown that this still may not be successful. Although Russia now has the best position of all industrialized countries due to concessions at Kyoto and Marrakech (emissions currently at 38% below and a target of effectively 4% above 1990 level), it may still ask for more. The alternative for the European Union is to go ahead, without Russia and the USA, to implement the Kyoto Protocol with its rules and procedures together with all the countries that are willing to do so. The Kyoto Protocol is ratified by 119 countries, amongst them all EU members and accession states, Japan, Canda, New Zealand and all major developing countries. All procedures are either already in place and could be installed under the existing UN system, if those willing parties agree to use them. It seems certain that measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions will have to be taken in the long term, there is only a serious debate about the when. Being the first to do so, provides a ‘‘competitive advantage’’. If a critical mass is brought together in such a pre-Kyoto market, other countries would feel under pressure to join. Russian businesses are already now eager to participate in the mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol, since they may gain significantly from trading being likely net sellers of emission allowances. EU industry could protest with reference to international competitiveness. But for all new long-lasting installations, it may be more economic to install efficient technology now than to install inefficient equipment that has to be shut down before the end of its life due to upcoming emission regulations. In addition, early developed and adopted new technology can later be sold on the world market. And finally, policies could be designed in a way that does not lead to substantial cost increases for those energy-intensive industries that are internationally competing. doi:10.1016/S1469-3062(03)00128-1
480
Letter to the Editor
The past has shown that Russia cannot be moved to ratify the Kyoto Protocol by concessions, especially now that another player, the USA, may make concessions for movement in the opposite direction. This is a race that the EU cannot win. Only going ahead and implementing the Kyoto Protocol without Russian Federation can eventually pull Russia into ratification and give official birth to the Kyoto Protocol.
Letter to the Editor of Climate Policy 15 October 2003
The EU should go ahead with the implementation the Kyoto Protocol without Russian ratification Niklas Ho¨hne, ECOFYS, Cologne, Germany The recent World Climate Change Conference in Moscow, Russia lead to the impression, that the Russian government, contrary to previous announcements, may not ratify the Kyoto Protocol in the very near future (see also Article by M. Grubb in this issue). There are two options for the Kyoto supporting European Union to act in this situation. Either it will give in and offer something ‘‘serious’’ in- or outside of the Kyoto Protocol to the Russian Federation in return to its ratification. But the past negotiations have shown that this still may not be successful. Although Russia now has the best position of all industrialized countries due to concessions at Kyoto and Marrakech (emissions currently at 38% below and a target of effectively 4% above 1990 level), it may still ask for more. The alternative for the European Union is to go ahead, without Russia and the USA, to implement the Kyoto Protocol with its rules and procedures together with all the countries that are willing to do so. The Kyoto Protocol is ratified by 119 countries, amongst them all EU members and accession states, Japan, Canda, New Zealand and all major developing countries. All procedures are either already in place and could be installed under the existing UN system, if those willing parties agree to use them. It seems certain that measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions will have to be taken in the long term, there is only a serious debate about the when. Being the first to do so, provides a ‘‘competitive advantage’’. If a critical mass is brought together in such a pre-Kyoto market, other countries would feel under pressure to join. Russian businesses are already now eager to participate in the mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol, since they may gain significantly from trading being likely net sellers of emission allowances. EU industry could protest with reference to international competitiveness. But for all new long-lasting installations, it may be more economic to install efficient technology now than to install inefficient equipment that has to be shut down before the end of its life due to upcoming emission regulations. In addition, early developed and adopted new technology can later be sold on the world market. And finally, policies could be designed in a way that does not lead to substantial cost increases for those energy-intensive industries that are internationally competing. doi:10.1016/S1469-3062(03)00128-1
480
Letter to the Editor
The past has shown that Russia cannot be moved to ratify the Kyoto Protocol by concessions, especially now that another player, the USA, may make concessions for movement in the opposite direction. This is a race that the EU cannot win. Only going ahead and implementing the Kyoto Protocol without Russian Federation can eventually pull Russia into ratification and give official birth to the Kyoto Protocol.